IBA - 05 omslag 06-07 Scale: 100% Design: B&T Ontwerp en advies www.b-en-t.nl Print: Haveka www.haveka.nl The Re-Emergence of Foreign Banks in Shanghai 66 JEROEN KUILMAN An Ecological Analysis JEROEN KUILMAN Is China, with one of the world’s fastest growing economies, indeed the market of high returns and quick profits as the popular press and communis opinio seem to suggest? This book offers a more moderated The Re-Emergence perspective. It shows, by employing theories and methods from the field of organizational ecology, that the intricacies of the local market of Foreign Banks might frequently have been underestimated. Based on a detailed The Re-Emergence of Foreign Banks in Shanghai The Re-Emergence of Foreign analysis of the re-emerging population of foreign banks in Shanghai, it points out that as more and more foreign banks set up operations in Shanghai in Shanghai, competition among them is intensifying to the extent that it is deterring the founding of new foreign banks in Shanghai. An Ecological Analysis Foreign banks furthermore face long waiting times before they can start providing banking services and, in addition, their profitability is affected by the growing number of domestic banks. From a theoretical perspective, the findings in this book add significantly to the study of re-emerging organizational forms, the study of ecological dynamics prior to entry into a population, and theories concerning inter- population competition such as resource partitioning. ERIM The Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is the Research School (Onderzoekschool) in the field of management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The founding participants of ERIM are RSM Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Econo- mics. ERIM was founded in 1999 and is officially accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). The research undertaken by ERIM is focussed on the management of the firm in its environment, its intra- and inter-firm relations, and its business processes in their interdependent connections. The objective of ERIM is to carry out first rate research in manage- ment, and to offer an advanced graduate program in Research in Management. Within ERIM, over two hundred senior researchers and Ph.D. candidates are active in the different research programs. From a variety of academic backgrounds and expertises, the ERIM commu- nity is united in striving for excellence and working at the forefront of creating new business knowledge. www.erim.eur.nl ISBN 90-5892-096-8 The Re-Emergence of Foreign Banks in Shanghai: An Ecological Analysis Jeroen Kuilman 1 2 The Re-Emergence of Foreign Banks in Shanghai: An Ecological Analysis De her-opkomst van buitenlandse banken in Shanghai: een ecologische analyse PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op gezag van de rector magnificus Prof.dr. S.W.J. Lamberts en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op donderdag 13 oktober 2005 om 13:30 uur door Jeroen Kuilman geboren te Hoogezand-Sappemeer 3 Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr. B. Krug Overige leden: Prof.dr. Ch. Boone Prof.dr. A.R. Thurik Prof.dr. A. van Witteloostuijn Copromotor: Dr. L. P´olos Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) RSM Erasmus University / Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.eur.nl ERIM Electronic Series Portal: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1 ERIM Ph.D. Series Research in Management 66 ISBN 90 - 5892 - 096 - 8 Cover: Shanghai’s financial district, Lujiazui, as seen from the Bund. c Yang Liu/CORBIS. Print: Haveka www.haveka.nl c 2005, Jeroen Kuilman All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the author. 4 Abstract The substantive purpose of this dissertation is to address three important theoret- ical areas within the field of organizational ecology, namely: 1) the re-emergence of organizational populations, 2) ecological interactions during the early stages of firm activity, and 3) the modeling of inter-population competition. It does so by examining the evolution of the foreign banking industry in Shanghai, which has been subject to a socio-political environment that for almost thirty years was inhospitable to foreign banks. First, I examine the phenomenon of re-emerging organizational populations by modeling data on organizational foundings between 1847 and 2004. Studying such instances of re-emergence allow us to look at processes of legitimation and identity formation under atypical conditions, processes that are fundamental to our under- standing of the evolution of organizational forms. The empirical analysis of the re- emerging foreign banking population in Shanghai after 1982 shows that a renewed legitimation phase did not take place after the population had been largely absent for almost three decades. The analysis, however, shows that organizational dynam- ics in an alternative social system, namely that of Hong Kong, are of paramount importance in explaining the pattern of re-emergence in Shanghai. These results thus suggest moving beyond the customary approach of studying organizational populations within a single social system to multiple social systems is important in understanding the evolution of organizational forms and their identity. Second, I study the process by which a pre-producer or pre-operational entrant becomes fully operational, in particular how this likelihood depends on the density of other social actors in the environment of the potential entrant. The results indicate that the likelihood of foreign banks in Shanghai moving from the pre-entry phase -having a representative office- to the entry-phase -obtaining a branch license- is non- monotonically dependent on the number of fully operational organizations. Results v 5 vi ABSTRACT also show that there is a negative effect on the transition process of the number of other potential entrants, but this effect is only visible on a more limited geographical scale. In addition, the findings suggest that the potential entrant’s magnitude of capabilities affect the likelihood of entry, while the nature of these capabilities seems to affect the timing of entry. Third, in this dissertation I ecologically model inter-population competition. In line with a reversal of the ’resource partitioning’ process such effects can be linked to decreasing concentration. However, an alternative explanation is provided by the notion of competitive exclusion. According to this principle, one population simply outcompetes another population by means of its size or numbers. Using event-history methods to analyze the time-to-profitability of the foreign banks in Shanghai, it is shown that - in this particular context - both explanations can be used to account for the sub-optimal performance of the foreign banks in Shanghai. These results suggest that in a transitioning economy such as China, the mass, density and concentration of the organizations occupying positions in the market center all respond in an interrelated manner to the transition process. Taken together, these results reveal some of the intricacies of the Shanghai mar- ket and how these have affected the overall re-emergence of foreign banks in Shang- hai. 6 Acknowledgements First of all, I wish to thank my principal adviser and promotor Barbara Krug for her always supportive demeanor towards my work, for her confidence in me, and for setting an excellent example in teaching and of rigor in academic research. I couldn’t have wished for a better training during my time as a doctoral student. I also wish to express my deep gratitude to my second adviser and co-promotor L´aszl´oP´olos,whose guidance and advice has always been valuable, intellectually stimulating and encouraging. I am indebted to Christophe Boone, Glenn Carroll, Michael Hannan, George Hendrikse, Roy Thurik, and Arjen van Witteloostuijn, who, despite their busy sched- ules, kindly agreed to be members of my committee. Special thanks to Michael Hannan who generously allowed me to participate in his doctoral course ’Organizations and Environments’ at Stanford University in the spring of 2004. Special thanks also to Jiatao Li who collaborated with me on Chapter 5, and allowed me to learn from his experience and expertise in the meantime. Jiatao’s thoughtful comments helped me to improve my dissertation substantially. I am also grateful to Howard Aldrich, Christophe Boone, Tai-Young Kim, David McKendrick, G´abor P´eli, Ivar Vermeulen, Lihua Wang, Arjen van Witteloostuijn and seminar participants at the University of Durham and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology for valuable comments and advice. I especially wish to thank Christophe Boone for commenting on my research proposal during the early stages of my doctoral studies. During my three-month research visit to Shanghai I have received the help of many people, in particular C´eline Wang who helped me with getting access to Chinese source materials and translating them. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of various institutions, in partic- ular the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), the Vereniging vii 7 viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Trustfonds of Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Department of Organization and Personnel Management at RSM Erasmus University, and the Erasmus Research In- stitute of Management (ERIM). In particular, I wish to thank Dicea Jansen and Myra Lissenberg for administrative aid. Finally, I wish to thank my friends and family for reminding me to always put things in the right perspective and appreciate the truly important things in life, and last but certainly not least, Barbara, for her patience, love and support during the last four years. 8 Contents Abstract v Acknowledgements vii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation . 3 1.2 Major Theoretical Issues . 6 1.3 A Reader’s Guide .