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Slide #1: Uranium Market: How Did We Get Here and What Will Be Needed to Fuel the Nuclear Renaissance

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Slide #1: Uranium Market: How Did We Get Here and What Will Be Needed to Fuel the Nuclear Renaissance Slide #1: Uranium Market: How did we get here and what will be needed to fuel the nuclear renaissance Good morning and thank you for this opportunity to address the 2008 class of the World Nuclear University. Before I delve into my topic, I would just like to say a few things about this program. I give the WNA and Member companies a great deal of credit for having the foresight to create this strategic program. Put simply, your participation in the WNU, and the network that it fosters, is critically important to the success of the growth of our industry going forward. As someone who entered the nuclear industry at the age of 21 in 1984, I can only imagine how useful this program would have been to me at that stage in my career. While learning at the feet of the grey haired pioneers of this business was very exciting, and sometimes colorful, the network of gifted nuclear professionals that you are a part of must be very exciting and gives us all confidence that this industry will be very capably led into the future. The mid 80s (smack between TMI and Chernobyl) was not necessarily a time of optimism and growth in our industry so as a young person coming in, you could say I bucked the trend. In retrospect, however, I am extremely thankful that I made this career choice and never lost my faith in the benefits of clean, safe and economic nuclear power. It is nice to see our nuclear dreams being realized, and your generation could not be more ideally positioned. The workforce challenges of the nuclear 1 renaissance weigh heavy on industry leaders as we recruit the intellectual power, and execute the critically important knowledge transfer from our older (and retiring) industry experts. With that, let’s talk about the uranium market. Slide #2: Nuclear Renaissance – Challenges This exciting re-birth of nuclear power that we enjoy today, has of course, created many challenges. We have the workforce issues that this program is helping to address. We also face regulatory hurdles as the industry inundates the authorities with applications for construction and operating licenses, design certifications, and permits for new fuel cycle facilities. There are supply constraints and cost issues with a number of the production inputs for new reactors (steel, concrete, large forgings). The nuclear fuel cycle could also be included on this list of challenges if we fail to keep up the growth of nuclear power. Today, I am going to talk about the front end of the fuel cycle, specifically the uranium industry’s capability to support our end of the nuclear success story. 2 Slide #3 - Uranium Miners Risks Uranium is one of the more common elements in the Earth’s crust - it is more common than tin, about 40 times more common than silver and 500 times more common than gold.. So what is all the fuss about? Our industry’s challenge and great opportunity is to locate sufficient concentrations and quantities of this strategic element to be categorized as deposits which can be economically extracted and then, in turn, sold for a profit (not so simple). In our quest for this profit, we take a number of risks, so many in fact, that one might wonder whether there isn’t a better way to make money. Uranium miners must face: Risk that we will spend millions every year on exploration (between $50-55 million in Cameco’s case) which will more likely than not, come up empty. Once we have had the good fortune to locate a deposit, we accept the technical risks that it can be mined safely, economically, and in an environmentally acceptable fashion. Having mastered the technical challenges, we take on political risks in both developed and developing countries that we will be allowed to extract the mineral and/or retain profits. 3 And finally we are exposed to the market risk. Everything else might have come together for the uranium producer only to have uranium market prices move against them. Slide #4 – Fuel as a % of Electricity Production Costs The uranium market is interesting in a lot of ways. Given the inherent energy efficiency of splitting atoms to create heat in a commercial nuclear reactor, the relatively cheap fuel cost component of nuclear energy is much more advantageous than say coal or natural gas. Having said that, it is a large percentage of the variable operating cost of the reactor and much attention is put to it. Slide #5 – Nuclear Fuel Procurement Engineers at nuclear operations design optimal reactor core loadings which in turn drive fuel requirements. From these forecast fuel needs, requirements for natural uranium (U3O8), UF6 conversion and enrichment services are determined and sourced from the market. Uranium is sold largely under long term contracts which are determined competitively at arms length between buyers and sellers. These contracts can last anywhere between 3 and 20 years in duration and are often signed several years before the first delivery. Long term pricing can either be set at an agreed level and escalated by inflation, negotiated periodically, or allowed to float with market 4 indices. Uranium can also be bought for immediate delivery (less than one year) in the spot market directly. Like many commodities, a small percentage of the overall market supplies may be sold in the spot market, however, this is the quoted and published price that most market observers fixate upon. As we will discuss, there are positive aspects, and certainly shortfalls, to this spot market fixation, but nevertheless it is very influential in determining the prices for uranium. Slide #6 – Martin Heinrich Klaproth (1743-1817) Historical Developments In order to have a meaningful discussion of the current and future uranium market, it is necessary to look at the historical developments which have created a number of the conditions present today. By historical, I don’t mean back to the discovery of the element by Martin Klaproth in 1789, the uses in glass colorization, or even the early weapons program (although the latter did, and still does, have a profound impact on the supply side of the uranium market). Let’s look at the uranium market in support of the commercial nuclear power industry which I will generalize into three distinct phases. 5 Slide #7 – Three Phases of Nuclear Power Generation 1. Birth/emergence of commercial nuclear power - 1950 - 1979 2. Middle Ages – 1980 - 2002. 3. Nuclear Renaissance – 2003 – present The first phase is when we moved… Slide #8 – Large Nuclear Weapon From this…. Slide #9 – Birth /Emergence of Nuclear Power Photo: The first reactor that was used to generate electric energy was the EBR (Experimental Breeder Reactor) in the United States. The EBR was put into operation in 1951 and 200 kW out of its 1400 kW thermal power was utilized including the lighting of one of the buildings of the National Reactor Testing Station in Idaho. …To the birth/emergence of commercial nuclear power The strategic nuclear arms race, beginning with the Manhattan Project was, of course, the original driver behind the frantic global search for uranium. Governments seeking stable supplies for their weapons programs provided substantial resources within their spheres of influence to encourage 6 new discoveries and production. This was, of course, certainly true in the United States and the Soviet Union. The real commercial uranium heyday however came in the period of the 1970’s with the realization of the peaceful use of nuclear energy (primarily power generation). In the United States, for example, there was hardly an electric utility that had not ordered, or at least speculated on adding nuclear generation to their grid (this was the “too cheap to meter” nuclear boom). In fact, a 1972 Atomic Energy Commission forecast estimated that between 825 and 1,500 gigawatts of nuclear capacity in the US was expected to be in place by 2000 (about 100 gigawatts exist today). The corresponding projections of uranium prices exceeded $100 per pound as supplies of uranium were secured even before the ink had dried on the nuclear plant orders (many of which never materialized). Many utilities during this time pursued self supply programs with equity interests in exploration and mining companies, fearing being left with a reactor and no fuel. Adding to the situation were the fixed commitment enrichment contracts with the U.S. DOE which required utilities to feed their SWU contracts with UF6 even though they had no (or delayed) reactor requirements. 7 Slide #10 – Evolution of Uranium Price - Birth /Emergence of Nuclear Power (1950-1979) Birth/Emergence of commercial nuclear power – Transition from nuclear weapons to electricity generation – “Atoms for peace”. You see this represented in the production curve exceeding the demand curve based on that ultimately unfounded optimism. Nuclear power did grow dramatically worldwide over this period, but much less than the predictions, which caused the industry to produce far more than would be ultimately needed by the world’s nuclear reactors. It is this profound development, and that of the huge military build up of inventories that preceded it, that would set the stage for twenty years of inventory drawdown which has only now begun to move back towards equilibrium. This graph also shows very clearly the direct relationship between high uranium prices and expansion of new production. While there is understandably a timing lag, this direct correlation should be comforting to fuel buyers facing historic high prices. 8 Slide #11 – Evolution Middle Ages – 1980-2002. Photo: Incomplete reactor at Chernobyl As the 1970’s came to a close the uranium rush was beginning to lose some of its luster.
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