Uranium Resources, Production and Demand, Commonly Known As the "Red Book"
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A^3«s..*s< Uo\«.-*^'- 18^ RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND A JOINT REPORT BY THE OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY AND THE INTERNATIONAL mATOMIC ENERG Y AGENCY 198* ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into f-^rce on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: - to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; - to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and - to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971) and New Zealand (29th May 1973). The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia takes part in some of the work of the OECD (agreement of 28th October 1961). The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name of the OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agerxy. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its first non-European full Member. NEA membership today consists of all European Member countries of OECD as well as Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States. The Commission of the EuropeanCommunities takes part in the work of the Agency. The primary objective of NEA is to promote co-operation among the governments of its participating countries in furthering the development of nuclear power as a safe, environmen tally acceptable and economic energy source. This is achieved by: - encouraging harmonisation of national regulatory policies and practices, with particular reference to the safety of nuclear installations, protection of man against ionising radiation and preservation of the environment, radioactive waste management, and nuclear third party liability and insurance; - assessing the contribution of nuclear power to the overall energy supply by keeping under review the technical and economic aspects of nuclear power growth and forecasting demand and supply for the different phases of the nuclear fuel cycle; - developing exchanges of scientific and technical information particularly through participation in common services; - setting up international research and development programmes and joint under takings. In these and related tasks, NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has concluded a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear field. MM ea rmcHt m k line URANIUM RESSOUXCE5. PKOOOCTION ET OEMANDEI W» © OECD, 1990 Application for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this publication should be made to: Head of Publications Service, OECD 2, rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France. PREFACE Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation if their Member countries, the OBCD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have periodically published joint reports on vorld uranium resources, production and demand, commonly known as the "Red Book". This edition is the thirteenth in the series. A brief interim version was published in 1988 based on information up to 1st January 1987. The contents of this publication have been prepared on the basis of data solicited through questionnaires sent by NEA to its Member countries and by the IAEA to those of its Member countries that are not Members of the OECD and to certain additional U.N. Member countries. Although some countries prepared comprehensive national reports which are presented essentially in their original form (Chapter VI), a number of these reports were prepared by each Agency on the basis of the questionnaire responses it had received. Preparation of the remaining chapters of the report was divided equally between the two Agencies, with NEA's responsibilities been carried out under the direction of the NEA Uranium Group. This report, based on data available on 1st January 1989, reviews the uranium supply position throughout the Vorld Outside Centrally Planned Economies Areas (VOCA) by evaluating and compiling data on uranium resources, past and present production, and plans for future production. The data, provided by over 40 countries, are then compared with possible future reactor related uranium requirements. Recent levels of exploration for uranium are also reported and analysed. Some information on short-term uranium demand has been provided by national authorities in response to the questionnaires up to the year 2005. Longer-term projections of uranium demand were provided by two NEA Working Groups, on Long-Term Forecasting of Electricity Generation and on Reactor Strategies and their Uranium Requirements. A statistical report confirming the historical data and updating the short-term forecasts will be published in 1990. The reader will find after page 358 an order form to receive a free copy of the "Statistical Update 1990". ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, would like to acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations (see Annex 2), which replied to the questionnaire submitted to them. 3 CONTENTS SUMMARY 7 DEFINITIONS AND TF"MINOLOGY 11 URANIUM RESOURCES 19 A. KNOWN CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES 19 B. UNDISCOVERED CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES 25 C. UNCONVENTIONAL AND BY-PRODUCT RESOURCES 28 D. RESOURCES OUTSIDE WOCA 30 URANIUM EXPLORATION 33 INTRODUCTION 33 A. RECENT EVENTS 33 B. LEAD TIMES AND DISCOVERY COSTS 38 C. TRENDS IN EXPLORATION 39 URANIUM PRODUCTION 41 A. HISTORICAL REVIEW 41 B. STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY 44 C. RECENT AND CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN PRODUCER COUNTRIES 47 D. PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES 48 URANIUM DEMAND 57 A. INSTALLED NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY, AND RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS 59 4 B. NUCLEAR POVER GROUTH TO 2005, AND RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS 61 C. NUCLEAR POWER GROUTH TO 2030, AND RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS 62 URANIUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND 71 A. CURRENT STATUS 71 B. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM 79 C. THE LONGER-TERM PERSPECTIVE 81 NATIONAL REPORTS CN URANIUM EXPLORATION, RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION 89 Introduction 89 Argentina 90 Australia 103 Belgium 119 Benin 124 Bulgaria 124 Canada 127 China 149 Colombia 155 Costa Rica 159 Czechoslovakia 161 Denmark (Greenland) 162 Egypt 165 Pinland 168 France 176 Germany, Federal Republic of 188 Greece 201 India 207 Indonesia 211 Japan 212 Jordan 218 Korea, Republic of 220 Malaysia 224 Mauretania 226 Mexico 227 Morocco 228 Namibia 231 Netherlands 236 Niger 239 Peru 244 Philippines 248 Portugal 251 Spain , 261 Sweden 270 5 Switzerland 275 Syrian Arab Republic 278 Tanzania 280 Thailand 281 Turkey 284 United Kingdom 287 United States 294 Uruguay 308 Yugoslavia 310 Zambia 316 VTI. MAPS 319 Annexes 1. MEHBERS OF THE NEA URANIUH GROUP 326 2. LIST OF REPORTING ORGANISATIONS 329 3. GEOLOGIC SETTING OF URANIUH DEPOSITS 332 4. INDEX OF NATIONAL REPORTS 335 5. ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS 337 6. UNDERSTANDING URANIUM RESOURCES 340 7. LONG TERM PROJECTION OF DEMAND FOR URANIUM 345 6 SUMMARY This report presents results of the 1989 review of uranium supply and demand principally in the World Outside Centrally Planned Economies Areas (VOCA). It contains data on uranium exploration activities, resources and production for over 40 countries, updating the previous Red Book published in March 1988. Estimates of Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) recoverable at costs of $80/kg U or less have remained virtually unchanged since the last assessment in early 1987, even though production was in excess of 70 000 tonnes U during the 2-year interval. As of January 1, 1989, low-cost RAR were estimated at 1 546 000 tonnes U, a decline of just 9 000 tonnes since January 1, 1987. Estimated Additional Resources - Category I (EAR-I) in the low cost category decreased by over 110 000 tonnes to about 770 000 tonnes U, the major reductions being reported in South Africa. It should be noted that both re source categories were affected by significant downward adjustments because of estimated mining and milling losses not previously taken into account. Estimates of VOCA's RAR recoverable at costs between $80-130/kg U have decreased by slightly over 20 000 tonnes to 655 000 tonnes U, mainly as a re sult of a few countries reporting reductions in resources. Estimates of EAR-I in the same cost category declined by 34 000 tonnes to about 390 000 tonnes U, due essentially to a fairly large reduction reported in Sweden. Total RAR and EAR-I combined - i.e., "known" resources - recoverable at costs of $130/kg U or less, are estimated at 3.4 million tonnes U as of January 1, 1989, a decrease of about 180 000 tonnes (0.5 per cent) from early 1987. There is also very good potential for additional uranium resources of conventional type recoverable at costs of $130/kg U or less as reflected by estimates of EAR-II and Speculative Resources; this potential could exceed 10 million tonnes U. Beyond the conventional resources noted above, there are also large tonnages of unconventional resources of uranium, the bulk of which are associated with marine phosphates. Current production from such resources is limited, both geographically and in terms of output. Although resource and production data are limited, significant uranium resources are known to exist in a number of non-VCCA countries including Bulgaria, China, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Romania and the USSR.