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AGENDA NO: Consultation Gloucestershire Area School Reviews: Issues for Public AGENDA NO: Consultation Cabinet Date 1st February 2006 Lead Cabinet Member Children’s Cllr Jackie Hall Services Cabinet Member Cllr Joan Nash Schools Key Decision To decide how to progress the recommendations of the area review panel on future primary school provision Background Cabinet Report Oct 2003 – Proposed Strategic Review of Gloucestershire Primary Documents and Secondary Schools Cabinet Report Dec 2004 – Area Reviews of Primary and Secondary Provision Reports of Area Review Panels – December 2005 DfES Guidance on Falling School Rolls – March 2005 Main Consultees The Area Review panels were set up to offer advice to the County Council and comprised representatives of headteachers, governors (including parent governors), church authorities and political groups under an independent chair. The panels in turn undertook a major engagement exercise in each review area during November 2005, involving schools, parents, young people, local communities and elected representatives at all levels Public consultation in each area – February/April 2006 Planned Dates Cabinet decision, following consultation - 7 June 2006 Divisional Councillor All Councillors Geoff Black – Head of Planning & Development Officer 01452 425317 [email protected] Purpose of Report For Cabinet to consider the recommendations of the Area Review Panels and decide the proposals/options on which they wish to consult publicly. Key See main body of paper Recommendations Falling pupil numbers are a crucial strategic resource issue for the county. Resource Implications Fewer pupils means less government funding. The Dedicated Schools Grant, which funds schools and the services supporting them, is due to fall by £2m per year on a like for like basis over the next five years. Without change, this reduced funding will also be used less and less efficiently because so much is tied up in the fixed costs of: 1 • 304 schools (their buildings, management, core curriculum) • support services which are scaled on a school by school, not pupil by pupil basis. So, falling rolls mean: • less funding for each school • falling average school sizes and rising unit costs • proportionately more spent on fixed costs rather than pupils’ education • insufficient funding for the support services to improve children’s outcomes. Falling rolls can also make inequalities worse. Every primary child in Gloucestershire receives broadly £1800 in the schools formula. Pupils in larger schools receive an additional £270 - £350 for fixed cost school-specific items. Pupils in the smallest schools receive an additional £3,100 or nearly 12 times as much. It costs an average of £2,300 to educate a primary school child in Gloucestershire. In the most costly school it is nearly £5,000. These differentials are hard to justify when resources are scarce and declining. Surplus places in our current schools formula are costing the Council £459,000 a year. Significant savings to offset lower resources can only be achieved, however, by reducing the major fixed costs of the existing system – the number of schools and the high fixed cost schools in particular. Resource information in the paper is of three types: • unit costs (ie school costs per pupil against a county primary average of £2,302) • one off costs (ie revenue costs, such as transitional costs for an amalgamation or capital costs for building work) • recurrent savings (savings which will continue year on year, after additional costs such as extra transport have been taken into account – shown as a five year net savings figure). Overall net savings from the 10 sets of proposals are estimated at £1.4m - £1.97m over 5 years, with one off costs c£150,000. Potential redundancy and early retirement costs have not been included, since they vary depending on the length of service and seniority of each member of staff and their prospects for redeployment elsewhere in the system. Typically: One off costs: Severance £35 - £50k per teacher Lump sum pension £30 - £45k per teacher Recurrent costs: £6 - £10k per teacher per annum 2 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 The Challenge The United Kingdom has an ageing population due to lower birth rates and longer lifespans. The proportion of the population below 16 is less now than thirty years ago. In consequence, there are now around half a million surplus primary school places in England (11% of capacity) with more than 1 in 8 of all maintained primary schools having 25% or more surplus capacity. By 2008, predicted surpluses will be the equivalent of 2400 average size primary schools. Gloucestershire reflects this picture. Births in 2001 were the lowest in decades after a sustained period of decline. The largest pupil year group is Y11 (15/16 year olds), which is just about to move out of the system. Since September 2000, Gloucestershire primary schools have lost nearly 3000 pupils and now (September 2005) have 6118 surplus places, equivalent to 37 average size Gloucestershire primary schools. Falling rolls present a challenge: • LAs receive less education funding from government as pupil numbers fall, but fixed costs for schools and school support (quality control, transport and access, building maintenance, health and safety etc) remain the same. • Schools with falling rolls cannot create smaller classes, they just receive less income – forcing cuts in staff, equipment, resources and curriculum. • Without change, fixed costs remain (for the LEA, the same size school system: for schools the same size building, heating, lighting maintenance costs) while income reduces. • Falling pupil numbers in an area have a disproportionate impact on less popular schools, sometimes forcing them into a rapid spiral of decline. • There are unpredictable impacts on smaller, more isolated schools. • Unpredictable and unplanned decline produces instability and uncertainty, damages staff morale, diverts management time and reduces the curriculum opportunities for pupils. In short, falling rolls have a very direct impact on standards and educational opportunities if they are not addressed. Falling rolls also present an opportunity however. The major change agenda signalled by Every Child Matters will be facilitated in part by the freeing up of school space, allowing the development of Children’s Centres, out of hours learning, community and extended school initiatives, local health provision etc. The review aims for a stable and affordable structure of provision for the future which will raise standards and increase opportunities for young people, families and communities. The importance attached to this strategic review by the Council has since been reinforced by guidance from DfES and OFSTED. The DfES analysis of falling rolls and their impact, available at www.teachernet.gov.uk/fallingrolls, accords very closely with our own. The OFSTED framework for LEA inspections makes it clear that a good authority would be expected to: • offer strong leadership in tackling school place issues • have a clear aim to reduce surplus places and realistic plans for achieving it • make explicit links to school improvement, community regeneration and wider policy objectives • have good systems for forecasting and capacity measurement • develop good stakeholder engagement in the proposed strategy. 3 1.2 The Process The County Council agreed the principle of a rolling programme of area school reviews in October 2003. A Partnership Working Group was set up in Summer 2004 to develop the review process, with membership drawn from a wide range of stakeholders. Following two large and successful county conferences in September, the Group proposed in November 2004 a review structure with six panels, independently chaired and working to common procedures and timescales. The structure was agreed by the then Cabinet on 1st December 2004 and confirmed by the new administration in May 2005. The area panels formed in March 2005 (May for Gloucester). Their members were nominated not by the County Council but by a range of external bodies – headteachers, governors (including parent governors), church authorities and political groups. The Council was delighted to secure some distinguished independent chairs for the panels, including the current Chief Executive of UCAS, senior staff from the further and higher education sector and a former county education officer. The process has been a good one. Despite the daunting task faced by the panels, they have all kept to the programme and succeeded in producing considered, coherent recommendations. Between them they have: • met 41 times • examined 323 sets of evidence • heard directly from 859 school staff, parents or local people • received 656 items of correspondence. The terms of reference for the panels are attached at Annex A and their recommendations for each area at Annex B. 2. OPTIONS 2.1 Reviewing panel recommendations In considering the recommendations of the six independent panels, the County Council has three options: • accept • reject • accept with amendments. Although the panels have all produced considered and coherent recommendations, the Council must nevertheless review them carefully to ensure they meet current policy objectives, are cost effective and can be delivered. There must be full confidence and ownership before the Council holds itself accountable to the public through further formal consultation. Cabinet are asked to endorse the following criteria against which panel recommendations have been considered: • match area supply with predicted demand,
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