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Savills Studley Report New York City Office Sector Q3 2016

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Savills Studley Report New York City Office Sector Q3 2016 Savills Studley Research New York City Savills Studley Report New York City office sector Q3 2016 SUMMARY Market Highlights “Many landlords in Midtown are escalating their AVAILABILITY RATES NUDGE HIGHER Class A rent Downtown decreased by 0.9% tenant retention efforts. Some are boosting the Manhattan’s overall availability rate inched to $64.64. up by 0.2 pp from 10.4% to 10.6%. LEASING ACTIVITY DECREASES value of build-out packages, others are showing Midtown’s Class A availability rate jumped Leasing activity fell slightly from 8.0 msf in flexibility on rent." by 120 basis points from 11.1% to 12.3%, the second quarter to 7.6 msf in the third its highest mark in three years. In contrast quarter. Midtown captured all of the top Daniel Horowitz, Executive Vice President Downtown's Class A rate fell by 1.0 pp 10 leases in the quarter, except for one. to 14.3%. Additionally, Class B and C Additionally, Coach's 694,000-sf sales "Best-in-class new product and premiere availability in Manhattan dropped to 8.9%, leaseback accounted for nearly 10% of Midtown buildings are maintaining steady with declines in most submarkets. activity. Bloomberg and WeWork - two of the demand. However, a significant amount of RENTS FLAT IN MIDTOWN most active tenants in recent years - both commodity space is available, with more coming. Class A asking rent in Midtown was signed major expansions. essentially flat in the third quarter, falling This is the soft spot in today’s market where the from $88.89 to $88.85. Of note, Class A best deals can be found. asking rent in the Plaza District fell by 3.9%. Bill Montana, Senior Managing Director Savills Studley Report | New York City Tenant Retention Efforts Office-Using Employment Trends Intensify Millions Following the lull of July and August, 1.40 5.0% September often ushers in some excitement as the market anticipates a rush of activity 1.35 3.0% in the last few months of the year. Heading 1.30 into this fall, though, some Manhattan 1.0% landlords appear to be placing a vote of no 1.25 confidence in the outlook for leasing activity -1.0% in Class A properties. More owners have 1.20 shifted from trying to prod demand, to doing -3.0% 1.15 their best to preserve the status quo and -5.0% keeping a firm grip on the tenants already in 1.10 2009 place in their buildings. 1.05 2010 -7.0% This escalation in the leasing campaign is 2011 2007 2008 1.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -9.0% taking several different forms: a wider cross- NYC Off. Emp. NYC (% Annual Change) U.S.(% Annual Change) section of owners are adjusting lease terms, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics some are raising concessions even on renewals and shorter term deals, and others are increasing the value of turnkey/build-out Availability Rate Trends (All Classes) packages. Additionally, some landlords are (%) Overall Availability Rate Trends retreating on their asking rent. 15% REITS and funds with a shorter holding period for their property were often the 12.4% first to adopt these tactics. More recently, 11.2% some longer-term holders of assets are 9.8% being compelled to boost concessions and 10% build-outs. Other owners are taking on the 10.5% expense and risk of building out space with 8.9% 8.7% high-end glass and wood installations that many law firms and some professional/ business services still prefer – not just for 5% smaller and mid-sized firms, but for larger ones as well. The expense associated with these projects is mounting due to labor shortages and a moderate increase in the Midtown Midtown South Downtown cost of materials. Owners are going to 0% greater lengths to keep important tenants 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 within their portfolio, sometimes restacking space or providing swing space while they build out a renewing tenant’s space. Asking Rent Trends (All Classes) Overall Rental Rate Trends The big shift though, is the move off ($/sf) of asking rents. A few quarters ago concessions were being dangled almost $78.31 $81.41 exclusively as the lure to drive leasing. $80 Tenants have been pushing back against $70.64 pricing for the last few quarters. Companies $72.01 willing to move to commodity space on a $60 lower floor, or those able to secure sublet $60.39 $61.00 space found lower-cost alternatives. Several months ago many owners did little to keep $40 tenants from relocating. Of late though, landlords are stretching to keep tenants from jumping ship. Some landlords are working with key tenants that extend their $20 lease commitment by reducing rent on the back end of their existing lease. Midtown Midtown South Downtown $0 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 02 Q3 2016 Keep the Bird in Hand Tenant retention has always been critical Availability Rate Comparison Rental Rate Comparison to landlords but of late has become East Side/UN 2.2% increasingly paramount. The cost of City Hall 4.2% Plaza I $108.93 Tibeca 6.5% Greenwich Village $92.44 replacing a tenant is too high in this market. Hudson Yards Greenwich Village 6.6% $91.83 Plaza II $90.30 Landlords with run-of-the-mill space face Chelsea 6.8% Midtown $81.41 the risk of an extended lease-up period. In Flatiron 7.8% Times Square $80.70 Park Ave S./Madison Square 7.8% turn, more landlords are accommodating Soho $77.70 Soho 7.9% shorter-term leases. More owners are Hudson Square $75.65 Midtown South plugging any holes in their roster, accepting 8.7% Grand Central $75.59 Times Square 9.2% Tribeca $75.54 that “a bird in hand” is better in light of the Union Square 9.2% Manhattan $74.92 likelihood that demand will remain tepid for Columbus Circle 9.5% Union Square $74.81 the foreseeable future. Penn Plaza/TSQ South 9.5% Columbus Circle $73.59 Financial District 9.9% Midtown South $70.64 Downtown 10.5% Park Ave S./Madison Square $68.45 Leasing activity has not fallen off a cliff, Manhattan 10.6% Penn Plaza/TSQ South $66.60 Chelsea but it remains choppy, and few market Midtown 11.2% $64.90 Flatiron $64.82 participants anticipate a big turnaround in Plaza II 11.3% WTC/Brookfield Place $63.41 Grand Central 12.7% the short term. Manhattan’s Class A market East Side/UN $63.16 WTC/Brookfield Place 13.1% has been dealing with anemic demand for Downtown $61.00 Plaza I 14.1% East Side/UN $57.59 the last two years. Tenants have leased Hudson Square 16.1% City Hall $57.40 51.8 msf since the start of 2015, an 18.4% Hudson Yards 17.8% Financial District $56.39 decrease from the prior seven quarters. If U.S. Index 17.9% U.S. Index $33.82 leasing continues on the same pace set in (%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ($/sf) $0 $15 $30 $45 $60 $75 $90 $105 $120 the first three quarters of the year leasing will barely exceed 30.0 msf – an increase Major Transactions from the 28.1 msf in 2015, but a far cry from Tenant Sq Feet Address Market Area the 35.0 msf averaged in 2013 and 2014. Coach, Inc.^ 694,000 501 W 30th St Hudson Yards It is not as though tenants have a lack of Random House** 631,025 1745 Broadway Columbus Circle different options to choose from; Class A Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy 250,000 55 Hudson Yards Hudson Yards available space has increased by 3.0 msf to WeWork 238,121 12 E 49th St Plaza II 26.7 msf from the third quarter of 2015. Bloomberg^^ 204,442 919 Third Ave Plaza I Dentons* 190,576 1221 Avenue of the Americas Times Square Pullback Apparent in the Plaza District Zurich American Insurance Company 131,856 4 World Trade Center WTC / Brookfield Place W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.* 109,735 500 Fifth Ave Grand Central Class A asking rent across all of Midtown Morgan Stanley* 108,394 399 Park Ave Plaza II was nearly flat in the third quarter, inching The Michael J Fox Foundation 86,492 111 W 33rd St Penn Plaza/Times Square South lower from $88.89 to $88.85. The Plaza Sum of Top Leases 2,644,641 Sum of 3rd Quarter Leasing Activity 7.6 MSF District registered a 3.9% quarter-on-quarter *Renewal ** Renewal&Expansion ^^ Expansion ^Sale-Leaseback decrease in its Class A rent. Asking rent is budging a bit even though the amount of available sublet space has only very benefit from tenants being pushed out of Looking Forward recently started to rise. Total Class A sublet Midtown South due either to a lack of space space available for occupancy in the next options or elevated rents. The increase in those firms opting for a 12 months in the Plaza District was down short-term lease also reflects growing by nearly 10.0% year-on-year as of early Shorting the Market caution among Manhattan businesses. September. Tenants are taking quality There is no one specific threat looming built sublet space when they can find it. The willingness of landlords to sign short- over the market but many businesses Across all of Manhattan, though, total term leases aligns with the needs of some, question whether conditions are about as available sublet space has increased three but not all tenants. Expanding firms good as they can get.
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