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2018 Traffic and Revenue Forecast

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2018 Traffic and Revenue Forecast VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE FILING Filed by the Texas Transportation Commission Date of Filing: January 29, 2020 Evaluation and Confirmation of Central Texas Turnpike System 2018 Traffic and Revenue Study Forecast In connection with the offering by the Texas Transportation Commission (the "Commission") of the proposed Central Texas Turnpike System Revenue Refunding Bonds (the "Bonds"), Stantec Consulting Services Inc, ("Stantec"), the acting Traffic Consultant for the Commission in connection with the Central Texas Turnpike System (the "System"), reviewed the report they prepared titled Central Texas Turnpike System 2018 Traffic & Revenue Study dated August 29, 2018 (the "2018 Report") to determine if changes to the underlying economics and other conditions warrant any change to the original forecast. Stantec has issued a letter dated as of January 21, 2020 (the "2020 Update Letter") updating the 2018 Report. For more information regarding the System, the 2020 Update Letter and the 2018 Report, please refer to the Preliminary Official Statement dated January 28, 2020, for the Commission's Bonds which is accessible here and contains updated information regarding the System including the 2020 Update Letter and the 2018 Report. After pricing the Bonds, the final Official Statement will also be filed under the base CUSIPs for the Bonds. This filing is not required to be provided by the Commission or the Texas Department of Transportation ("TxDOT") pursuant to their respective contractual continuing disclosure undertaking relating to their outstanding obligations and, accordingly, should not be construed as obligating the Commission or TxDOT to provide such additional information in future continuing disclosure filings or to provide any updates to the information contained in this filing. The information contained in this filing is being provided on a voluntary basis to provide updated financial information and operating data relating to the System, the 2020 Update Letter and the 2018 Report. Neither the Commission nor TxDOT makes any representation or warranty concerning the usefulness of the information contained in this filing to a decision to invest in, hold, or sell the Bonds or any outstanding obligations of the Commission or TxDOT. Central Texas Turnpike System 2018 Traffic & Revenue Study Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services Inc. August 29, 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1.1 1.1 Central Texas Turnpike System ..................................................................................... 1.1 1.2 Study Purpose, Methodology, and History ................................................................. 1.3 1.3 Organization of the Report .......................................................................................... 1.4 1.4 Consultant Team ........................................................................................................... 1.5 2.0 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK ...................................................................2.1 2.1 CTTS .................................................................................................................................. 2.1 2.2 Other Toll Roads in Austin Area .................................................................................... 2.5 2.3 Non-Toll Roadway Network in Austin .......................................................................... 2.6 2.4 Transit ............................................................................................................................... 2.9 2.5 Recent and Proposed Key Network Improvements ................................................. 2.9 2.5.1 2013 – 2016 Key Network Improvements ................................................ 2.11 2.5.2 2017 – 2020 Key Network Improvements ................................................ 2.12 2.5.3 2021 – 2030 Key Network Improvements ................................................ 2.15 2.5.4 2031 – 2040 Key Network Improvements ................................................ 2.18 3.0 EXISTING TRAVEL PATTERNS ........................................................................................3.1 3.1 Traffic Volumes ............................................................................................................... 3.1 3.2 Travel Speeds ................................................................................................................. 3.7 4.0 TOLL COLLECTION .......................................................................................................4.1 4.1 Methods of Toll Collection ............................................................................................ 4.1 4.2 Historical and Current Toll Rates .................................................................................. 4.2 4.3 Policy Regarding Future Rates ..................................................................................... 4.4 4.4 Future Toll Rates ............................................................................................................. 4.7 4.5 Toll Payment and Non-Payment Procedures .......................................................... 4.10 4.6 Customer Account Fees ............................................................................................. 4.12 5.0 HISTORICAL CTTS TOLL TRANSACTIONS AND REVENUE .............................................5.1 5.1 Monthly and Annual Transactions and Revenue ..................................................... 5.1 5.2 Vehicle Class Distribution .............................................................................................. 5.8 5.3 Weekday and Seasonal Patterns .............................................................................. 5.10 5.4 Payment Method Distribution .................................................................................... 5.12 5.5 Transaction Payment Status ....................................................................................... 5.14 6.0 SOCIOECONOMIC DATA ...........................................................................................6.1 6.1 Regional Trends .............................................................................................................. 6.1 6.1.1 Regional Population .................................................................................... 6.3 6.1.2 Regional Employment................................................................................. 6.9 6.2 Update of TAZ Level Estimates ................................................................................... 6.20 6.2.1 Methodology ............................................................................................. 6.20 6.2.2 TAZ Population & Employment ................................................................ 6.23 6.3 Regional Development Trends .................................................................................. 6.26 i 6.3.1 Austin ........................................................................................................... 6.30 6.3.2 Georgetown ............................................................................................... 6.35 6.3.3 Round Rock ................................................................................................ 6.37 6.3.4 Hutto ............................................................................................................ 6.39 6.3.5 Pflugerville ................................................................................................... 6.40 6.3.6 Manor .......................................................................................................... 6.42 6.3.7 Buda ............................................................................................................ 6.42 6.3.8 Kyle .............................................................................................................. 6.43 7.0 MODEL VALIDATION AND REFINEMENT .....................................................................7.1 7.1 Travel Demand Model Development ........................................................................ 7.1 7.1.1 Highway Assignment Process Modifications .......................................... 7.10 7.2 Model Calibration ....................................................................................................... 7.10 7.2.1 Speed Calibration ..................................................................................... 7.11 7.2.2 Aggregate Calibration by Facility Type and Area Type ...................... 7.13 7.2.3 Screenline Calibration .............................................................................. 7.14 7.2.4 Calibration of Toll Transactions by Mode and by Payment Method ....................................................................................................... 7.19 7.3 Elasticity Analysis .......................................................................................................... 7.25 8.0 TRAFFIC & REVENUE FORECASTS ................................................................................8.1 8.1 SH 45 N and Loop 1 ....................................................................................................... 8.1 8.1.1 SH 45 N and Loop 1 Schematic Traffic Diagrams ..................................
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