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ISRA VISION at a Glance

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ISRA VISION at a Glance ISRA VISION Initiating Coverage 18 February 2019 Better than the human eye – Growth story is expected continue In a highly fragmented market environment ISRA VISION ranks Target price (EUR) 36 Share price (EUR) 28 among the leading players for machine vision technologies with a strong focus on software solutions. Driven by market trends as well as R&D efforts, we expect ISRA’s growth story to continue and Forecast changes forecast a revenue growth CAGR of 10.4% until FY 2022/23e. EBIT % 2019e 2020e 2021e is expected to increase by 10.6% during this period. In addition to organic growth, M&A driven growth is very likely. We initiate the Revenues NM NM NM EBITDA NM NM NM coverage of ISRA VISION with Buy and a TP of EUR 36.00. EBIT adj NM NM NM EPS reported NM NM NM EPS adj NM NM NM ISRA VISION among the technology leaders Source: Pareto ISRA is one of the leading providers for machine vision solutions with specialisation in 3D machine vision. The company’s Ticker ISRG.DE, ISR GR competences are mainly concentrated around the internally Sector Industrials developed software application. Future demand is driven by more Shares fully diluted (m) 21.9 Market cap (EURm) 605 complexity and miniaturization, quality requirements and entering Net debt (EURm) -18 into new markets. Customer benefits are cost savings, process Minority interests (EURm) 2 optimization, higher flexibility and a ROI of clearly <1 year. Enterprise value 19e (EURm) 590 Free float (%) 65 Growth story should continue - 5yrs growth CAGR of 10.4% The well diversified customer base in various end-markets helps ISRA to reduce cyclicality. Overall, we forecast an organic revenue growth of 10.4% while the EBIT growth CAGR amounted to 10.6% Performance until 2022/23e. EUR 60 TP of EUR 36 implies significant upside of 30% 52 Given the expected dynamic revenue growth and improving cash flows, we believe the DCF model is the most suitable valuation 44 method. While our base case scenario implies a TP of EUR 36, our 36 bear case fair value stands at EUR 26 per share. 28 EURm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 20 Revenues 143 153 168 186 207 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 EBITDA 43 49 53 59 65 ISR CDAX (Rebased) EBIT 28 33 37 41 45 Source: Factset EPS 0.94 1.06 1.17 1.30 1.46 EPS adj 0.94 1.06 1.17 1.30 1.46 DPS 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.18 EV/EBITDA 16.4 19.4 11.1 9.8 8.6 EV/EBIT 24.9 28.6 16.1 14.1 12.4 Analysts P/E adj 34.1 41.0 23.6 21.2 18.9 Zafer Rüzgar P/B 3.99 4.84 2.78 2.49 2.23 +49 69 58997 412, [email protected] ROE (%) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 Winfried Becker Div yield (%) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 +496 95 8997 416, [email protected] Net debt 1 (2) (21) (37) (51) Please refer to important disclosures on the last 5 pages of this document This report is generated for Zafer Rüzgar ISRA VISION Initiating Coverage Table of contents Investment Case 3 ISRA VISION at a glance 4 SWOT Analysis 5 Company Profile 6 History 6 Business Model 6 Financial Performance 7 Operating segments 8 Customer and geographical split 9 M&A Strategy 10 Ownership structure 11 Market Environment 12 Positioning of ISRA VISION 14 Financials 15 Revenues 16 Profitability 18 Balance sheet and cash flow 19 Acquisition impact on growth and earnings 22 Valuation 25 DCF model 26 Appendix 29 18 Feb 2019 Pareto Securities Research 2(38) This report is generated for Zafer Rüzgar ISRA VISION Initiating Coverage Investment Case Exhibit 1: GER: 2018e flat market following long-lasting Exhibit 2: Double digit revenue growth should continue due growth to constantly increasing applications EUR bn 300 3.0 40% 250 2.5 30% 200 20% 2.0 10% 150 1.5 0% 100 1.0 -10% 50 0.5 -20% 0 0.0 -30% 2006 2014 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018e Revenue (EURm) GER: Machine vision turnover yoy, % Source: VDMA, Pareto Securities Equity Research Source: ISRA VISION, Pareto Securities Equity Research Exhibit 3: ISRA targets long-term gross margin of >60% Exhibit 4: Very comfortable debt situation enables scope for M&A 60% 23.0% 50 1.50 1.00 22.0% 0 57% 0.50 21.0% -50 0.00 20.0% 54% -0.50 -100 19.0% -1.00 51% 18.0% -150 -1.50 Gross margin (lhs) EBIT margin (rhs) Net Debt (EURm) Net debt/EBITDA Source: ISRA VISION, Pareto Securities Equity Research Source: ISRA VISION, Pareto Securities Equity Research Exhibit 5: Working Capital seems weak, but improvement Exhibit 6: Further M&A very likely, but ISRA has a clear idea already started how to do it 180 100% Criteria Financing 150 90% 1 + 1 > 4 Retain equity ratio of 50% Larger market share through 120 80% deeper penetration in the existing markets Numerous sources of financing 90 70% Expand technology expertise Industry-dependent acquisition benefits 60 60% Develop further global presence - Asia 30 50% - North America Optimal target of over EUR 20m - Europe 0 40% Target Markets Target Markets - Semiconductor & Electronics - Metrology - 3D technologies - Automation - Pharma, Medical - Strategic embedded systems - Food - Specific markets Net Working Capital (EURm) NWC/Sales (rhs) Source: ISRA VISION, Pareto Securities Equity Research Source: ISRA VISION, Pareto Securities Equity Research 18 Feb 2019 Pareto Securities Research 3(38) This report is generated for Zafer Rüzgar ISRA VISION Initiating Coverage ISRA VISION at a glance Exhibit 7: At a glance Segments Surface Vision Industrial Automation Vision systems to inspect web and individualized products and control a production process, consisting of Robot vision systems in different applications, such as Robot Guidance, Robot Vision or 3D Precision Metrology. Products/ lighting, cameras and lenses, Machine Vision computer, software (which is of high importance - e.g. Techniques used are e.g. 2D, MONO3D, 3D Shape Matching, 3D Photogrammetry, 3D Stereosensor, Area Profile applications classification, statistics, logging, control), diagnostics, enclosure, defect marking, and installation and Scan 3D, 3D Visual Servo, and others. integration systems. A broad range of leaders from the selected industries: Glass (e.g. ASAHI, Pilkington, Saint Gobain); Solar (e.g. LGE, Jinko Solar); Metals (e.g. Nippon Steel Corp, China Steel, Baosteel, Severstal, Posco, Nucor); Printing (e.g. Main global OEMs: BMW, VW, Daimler, Toyota, Hyundai, Fiat, Ford, GM, Nissan-Renault; Posco, manroland, Customers PilenPak, Constantia, manroland); Advanced Materials (e.g. Du Pont, Bayer, 3M, evonik, Renolit); Paper Kobusch as well as leading companies in several other industries. Industry (e.g. Kimberly-Clark, Norske Skog, APP, wepa, UPM) Market share/ Worldwide leading in surface inspection of web materials and individualized products. A top 3 provider of machine vision systems and solutions, specializing in particular the area of 3D machine vision. positioning High speed of innovation towards Industry 4.0 / Smart Factory; increased efficiency driven by extreme High speed production process, increasing quality requirements and miniaturization of components. Helps Drivers automation and vertical integration within a company. High precision 3D metrology techniques are on the rise; customers to improve quality and to save costs. help customers to improve quality and to save costs. Main AMETEK, Cognex, Perceptron Inc, Keyence, Omron, Vitronic (Solar), Chroma (Solar), AVT Israel, Futec Inc., VMT (Pepperl + Fuchs), framos, INOS, Procemex, BST Eltromat competitors Entry barriers/ High technological entry barriers / global sales and service network; widespread product, end-customer and reginal diversification, ISRA VISION covers the whole value-added chain for the customer (one-stop-shopping competitive possibility) advantage Strategy: Guidance FY 2018/19e: PAS estimates Consensus (I) Penetrate further niche markets Revenue: > EUR 168m Revenue: EUR 168m EUR 167m y/y low double-digit growth y/y 10.1% 9.8% Strategy & (II) External growth through acquisitions Guidance (III) Innovative products for Smart Factory Automation EBIT margin at least FY 2017/18 level EBIT margin 21.8% 22.0% (IV) Increase customer service and support Sales (EURm) 152.5 EBITDA (EURm) 49.0 EBIT (EURm) 33.2 Sales 5Y hist. CAGR 11.2% 2018 y/y Margin 32.1% Margin 21.8% Organic growth y/y - Sales split by region (FY 2017/18) Sales split by segments EBIT split by segments Group revenue and EBIT margin 250 22.0% 15% 200 21.5% 28% 26% 21.0% 150 47% 20.5% Sales & EBIT 21% 100 Split 20.0% 50 19.5% 72% 74% 0 19.0% 17% Germany Europe Americas Asien, RoW Surface Vision Industrial Automation Surface Vision Industrial Automation Industrial Automation Surface Vision EBIT margin (rhs) Enis Ersü Shareholder structure Founder & CEO ENIS ERSÜ • Developed the company from a University start-up 25.0 • Over 30 years experience in machine vision solutions Management Vision GbR • Graduated with a Masters degree in Electronic Engineering & shareholder from TU Darmstadt structure 5.0 Groupama Asset 65.0 5.0 Management SA Free Float # of employees 723 FY 2018 Source: Pareto Securities Equity Research 18 Feb 2019 Pareto Securities Research 4(38) This report is generated for Zafer Rüzgar ISRA VISION Initiating Coverage SWOT Analysis Exhibit 8: SWOT STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES ISRA globally ranks among the technology Major part of the group’s value added is leaders located in Germany; cost disadvantage versus Product portfolio serves well diversified Asian competitors industrial end-markets - limiting the risk Working Capital management has some room ISRA offers a global sales and service for improvement network Strong profitability (e.g.
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