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The New Zealand Gas Story

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The New Zealand Gas Story FRONT COVER: A new generation of smart gas meters. AN EDMI Helios residential gas meter currently being trialled in New Zealand by Vector Advanced Metering Services. Below it is a graphic read-out of a day’s consumption from one of the households in the trial, together with other usage data that allows the householder to track consumption patterns and facilitate demand management. These meters are manufactured in Malaysia and are starting to be deployed in Europe. Images courtesy of Vector Advanced Metering Services Message from the Chief Executive Gas Industry Co is pleased to publish the third edition of the New Zealand Gas Story. This Report includes developments in the policy, regulatory and operational framework of the industry since the previous edition in April 2014. Gas remains an essential component of New Zealand’s energy supply. It underpins electricity supply security and is the primary energy for many of New Zealand’s largest industries. A number of these are key exporters and for some gas is the effectively the only competitive energy option for their operations. Gas is also a fuel of choice for over 264,000 residential and small business consumers. The gas sector in New Zealand continued to evolve over the past year. A number of indicators remain positive, but the industry is facing some headwinds: the overall market has grown on the back of a return to full three-train methanol production at Methanex. increased petrochemical demand is offset by a continuing trend towards a gas ‘peaking’ role in electricity generation, with a resulting further reduction in gas use for baseload generation. At the same time broader retail market demand is relatively flat. a fall in international oil prices is inevitably affecting New Zealand upstream investment, especially because New Zealand exploration is targeted mainly at oil. Smaller explorers and producers are particularly affected. Oil prices will continue to change within the longer horizons of the New Zealand gas story, however, and new and large investors continue to be attracted to New Zealand through the block offers regime. an intensive exploration effort in the last few years has to date not yielded the significant new discoveries that many hoped for. But the domestic gas markets have seen a lift in reported reserves levels in the past year from further development of existing fields, and new figures on ‘contingent’ reserves from those fields signal significant further potential. Downstream, gas consumers continue to be well-served and customer numbers are growing. Consumers have a good and expanding choice of retailers with recent new entrants strengthening an already competitive market. And the emsTradepoint wholesale market is gaining traction, with increasing market participants and volumes traded. existing gas infrastructure is expected to carry the industry forward in the foreseeable future, pending any future step change in the form of a major new discovery or a substantial new demand source. Overall, this Report continues to portray an industry that is in generally good health and on track in terms of consumer needs and Government policy objectives for the sector. The New Zealand Gas Story is informed by Gas Industry Co’s strategy of ‘optimising the contribution of gas to New Zealand’, both in terms of a legacy of assets and investment, and the potential from a global resurgence in gas extraction and use. Internationally, gas is being looked at in a new way, both to help address climate issues and drive economic growth in leading economies. These developments are not without controversy, with concerns about issues such as ‘fracking’ and environmental sustainability still being addressed. The current squeeze on upstream investment due to the international oil price drop is not expected to be permanent and New Zealand continues to be a focus for explorers. Notwithstanding the absence of recent exploration success, consideration of commercialisation options for new gas discoveries is among our more interesting discussions. This necessarily involves the potential for gas exports and, as a consequence, how the domestic market would respond if gas pricing were to trend towards international parity. New Zealand’s gas story has some unique features and challenges. New Zealand remains an isolated domestic gas market. Apart from some importing and exporting of LPG, this country currently does not have cross border gas pipelines or natural gas importation capabilities to bring in – or export- natural gas from or to the world market. And, with the currently good supply of gas from conventional sources, New Zealand has barely scratched the surface of the development of ‘unconventional gas’, which is the focus of much new overseas development. From a governance perspective, in the past 10 years following the introduction of a co-regulatory regime for the downstream gas sector, we have seen the establishment of a solid platform of fit-for-purpose governance arrangements tailored to the particular characteristics of the industry in New Zealand. Remaining downstream issues are being proactively addressed. An overseas comparison would find the New Zealand governance landscape does not have some of the more formal arrangements commonly found in elsewhere. To some extent, this is appropriate, given the industry’s small size and the way it has developed over many years. At the same time, there has been a need for the industry to become more sophisticated to meet the demands of modern consumers and investors. In this respect, there are still some roads to travel. Steve Bielby Chief Executive Gas Industry Company About The New Zealand Gas Story The New Zealand Gas Story was first published in February 2013. It has two purposes - one legislative; the other market-based. As the ‘industry body’ under Part 4A of the Gas Act 1992, Gas Industry Co is required to report to the Minister1 on the state and performance of the gas industry. In the past, Gas Industry Co and the Government have issued occasional substantive reviews by external consultants2. In the era of websites and e-communication, Gas Industry Co publishes regular updates on market performance3. With The New Zealand Gas Story, we have developed a web-based report, which can be readily updated and added to over time. This is useful for keeping abreast of an industry that is constantly evolving, and where disclosure requirements introduced in 2013 sees staged releases of information over the course of a year. The second, market-based driver for this Report was a request from industry participants for Gas Industry Co to ‘stitch together’ the full story of gas in New Zealand, to assist knowledge and understanding of gas and its role in the New Zealand economy and society. This has become a formal part of Gas Industry Co’s strategy. The industry is complex and multi-faceted, from the time in which investors enter the upstream exploration market through to where gas is used by one of over 264,000 consumers. This Report is intended to provide a reference for industry stakeholders who may only be familiar with the parts of the gas story that are closest to them. Gas Industry Co also hopes the Report will help inform stakeholders’ planning and decision-making processes. While the Report is produced by Gas Industry Co, it is a discussion of the broad gas industry in New Zealand, not just of the Company’s Work Programme. As such: the Report extends beyond Gas Industry Co’s formal jurisdiction, which essentially covers industry governance arrangements from the point at which gas is processed and injected into the transmission system. There is a range of other private and public players involved in the industry chain. In a number of areas the Report provides a reference to the work of those other players4. in identifying particular current issues, the Report provides signposts to work being undertaken separately by other parties. Readers should follow those for the inevitably changing detail of that work. there is scope to update, expand and improve the Report iteratively over time. Gas Industry Co welcomes ongoing feedback. The report benefits from drafting and review by a range of external stakeholders, but Gas Industry Co retains authorship responsibility and reserves the right to moderate and/or edit any contributions. 1 The Minister is defined in the Gas Act as the Minister with responsibility for administration of the Gas Act. As at the date of this report, the ministerial warrant for Gas Industry Co was held by the Minister of Energy and Resources. On occasion, decisions in respect of the gas industry have been made under delegation by the Associate Minister of Energy and the Acting Minister of Energy. See www.beehive.govt.nz/portfolio/Energy-and-Resources for up to date information on the Ministerial portfolio. 2 ACIL Consulting: Review of the New Zealand Gas Sector. A Report to the Ministry of Economic Development, October 2001; Allen Consulting Group: The New Zealand Gas Industry in 2006. Review of its state and performance – Final Report to the Gas Industry Company, 15 November 2006 3 www.gasindustry.co.nz 4 For example, upstream exploration and production activity is also discussed in Long-Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios, Concept Consulting Group, September 2014 (available at http://gasindustry.co.nz/work-programmes/gas-transmission-investment-programme/supply- and-demand/long-term-gas-supply-and-demand-scenarios/ ) as well as in the subscription-only 2012-13 New Zealand Petroleum Sector Yearbook produced by Edison Investment Research. Further detailed information is available through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) at www.mbie.govt.nz Disclaimer: In preparing this Report, Gas Industry Co has relied on information it holds, or has accessed through publicly available sources. While Gas Industry Co has endeavoured to provide accurate information and reliable analysis, it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.
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