Scope for Reallocation of River Waters for Agriculture in the Indus Basin Z

Scope for Reallocation of River Waters for Agriculture in the Indus Basin

Z. Habib

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Z. Habib. Scope for Reallocation of River Waters for Agriculture in the Indus Basin. Environmental Sciences. Spécialité Sciences de l‘eau, ENGREF Paris, 2004. English. ꢀtel-02583835ꢀ

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Recherches Coordonnées sur les Systèmes Irrigués

ECOLE NATIONALE DU GENIE RURAL, DES EAUX ET DES FORÊTS

N° attribué par la bibliothèque
/__/__/__/__/__/__/__/__/__/__/

THESE

présentée par

Zaigham Habib

pour obtenir le grade de

Docteur de l'ENGREF en
Spécialité: Sciences de l’eau

Scope for Reallocation of River Waters for
Agriculture in the Indus Basin

à l'Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et Forêts
Centre de Paris

soutenue publiquement 23 septembre 2004

devant le jury suivant

Rapporteurs :

Linden Vincent Irrigation and Water Engineering Laboratory, Université de Wageningen

Rémi Pochat Jacques Rey Claude Millier Eric Servat
Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées, Paris Consultant ENGREF, Paris IRD, Laboratoire HydroSciences, Montpellier ENGREF, Montpellier
Examinateurs : Directeur de thèse Thierry Rieu

Invités :

Marcel Kuper

Pierre Strosser
CIRAD, IAV Hassan II, Rabat Consultant, ACTEON, Orbey

Scope for Reallocation of River
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Glossary .............................................................................................................................. 13 Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................. 17 Abstract............................................................................................................................... 19

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................21
1.

1.1 The Indus Basin and Water Allocation Issues........................................................... 22

1.1.1 Water resources and irrigated agriculture ............................................................... 22 1.1.2 Design Water Allocations ....................................................................................... 22 1.1.3 Surface Storage and New Apportionment Strategy ................................................ 23 1.1.4 Evolution of demands, water use and management practices................................. 24 1.1.5 Conservation of the Water Resources..................................................................... 24 1.1.6 National Water Policy and Management Strategy .................................................. 25

1.2 Problem statement ....................................................................................................... 25 1.3 Objective ....................................................................................................................... 27 1.4 Analytical Framework................................................................................................. 28 1.5 Outlines of the Research.............................................................................................. 29 1.6 Limitations of the current Research........................................................................... 31

Natural Resources, Irrigation Network and Farming Systems of the Indus Basin................33
2.

2.1 The Natural Physical Settings..................................................................................... 33

2.1.1 Geography and Basins of Pakistan.......................................................................... 33 2.1.2 The Ecological Division and Agriculture Areas ..................................................... 35

2.2 The Hydrological Setting of the Basin........................................................................ 36

2.2.1 The Spatio-temporal variation of Rainfall and Reference Evapotranspiration ....... 36 2.2.2 The Gross River Inflow........................................................................................... 40 2.2.3 The Groundwater .................................................................................................... 40 2.2.4 Surface Water Resources Infrastructure.................................................................. 43

2.3 The Agriculture Sector and Farming Systems of the Indus Basin .......................... 46

2.3.1 The Administrative Division of the Country........................................................... 46 2.3.2 The Socio-Economic Status of the Agriculture....................................................... 47 2.3.3 Key Characteristics of the Farming Systems of the Indus Basin ............................ 49 2.3.4 Production distribution at the Farm Level and contributing Factors....................... 52

2.4 Conclusions................................................................................................................... 54

A Historical Analysis of the Utilization, Ownership and Management of Water Resources.57
3.

3.1 Before the 7th century ................................................................................................. 58 3.2 From the 7^thto the 18^thCentury ................................................................................. 61

3.2.1 Pre Mughal Period .................................................................................................. 61 3.2.2 The Mughal Period.................................................................................................. 62 3.2.3 The Sikh Period in a part of Punjab ........................................................................ 63 3.2.4 The Canal Irrigation by the end of eighteenth century............................................ 63

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3.3 The British Period........................................................................................................ 66

3.3.1 The Early British Agriculture Policy ...................................................................... 66 3.3.2 Trials with the New Policy...................................................................................... 67 3.3.3 The development of Weir Controlled Alluvial Canals............................................ 68 3.3.4 Feasibility of Irrigation Reiterated.......................................................................... 70 3.3.5 The Second Phase of the Irrigation Development................................................... 72 3.3.6 The Irrigation Development in the Lower Indus..................................................... 74 3.3.7 The Water Sharing and Allocation Issues............................................................... 74 3.3.8 The Management Framework ................................................................................. 77 3.3.9 Exclusivity of the Management Organization......................................................... 79

3.4 The 5^thPeriod (1947 – 2002)........................................................................................ 80

3.4.1 Partition of the waters of the Indus Basin ............................................................... 80 3.4.2 The impact of the Indus Waters Treaty................................................................... 82 3.4.3 Post Treaty Water Sharing and Allocation disputes in the Basin............................ 83 3.4.4 The Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) of 1991 and its Implementation ......... 83

3.5 The Water Rights and Access ..................................................................................... 85 3.6 The Management Approach and the Institutions ..................................................... 86 3.7 Conclusions................................................................................................................... 89

Gross Water Resources and Surface Supplies for Irrigation to the Main Canals...................93
4.

4.1 Data Sources and Data Processing ............................................................................. 93

4.1.1 Processing of Rainfall Data..................................................................................... 94 4.1.2 River and Canal Flows............................................................................................ 94 4.1.3 Groundwater Data................................................................................................... 95

4.2 Quantitative Estimates of Rainfall in the Basin ........................................................ 96

4.2.1 The Variability of Rainfall...................................................................................... 96 4.2.2 Gross Quantitative Estimate of Rainfall ................................................................. 97

4.3 The Surface Water Resources..................................................................................... 98

4.3.1 River Inflows and Outflows.................................................................................... 98 4.3.2 The Gross Irrigation Diversions............................................................................ 100 4.3.3 The Provincial Division of Water ......................................................................... 101 4.3.4 The Annual Cycle of Inflow, Diversions and Outflow ......................................... 103

4.4 The Groundwater Resources .................................................................................... 105

4.4.1 The Gross Water Table Changes within Provincial Regional Boundaries............ 105 4.4.2 The Water Table Changes at the CCA level ......................................................... 106 4.4.3 The Trend of Groundwater Use in the Indus Basin............................................... 108

4.5 The distribution of River Waters to the Irrigation Systems .................................. 108

4.5.1 The Spatial Distribution of Water in 1993-94....................................................... 109 4.5.2 Grouping of the Main Canals................................................................................ 109 4.5.3 Description of the different main canal groups..................................................... 112

4.6 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 118

Assessing Demand, Uses and Reuses of Water Resources at the Basin Scale.......................121
5.

5.1 The Water Balance Approach................................................................................... 122 5.2 The Water Balance Procedure.................................................................................. 123

5.2.1 Mathematical relations.......................................................................................... 123 5.2.2 The Physical Boundaries defined for the Water Balance...................................... 125 5.2.3 Selection of the Coefficients................................................................................. 126

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5.2.4 Estimation of the Agricultural Water Requirements............................................. 129 5.2.5 Water Needs of Sectors other than Agriculture .................................................... 132

5.3 Calibration of the Water Balance model for 1993-94............................................. 133

5.3.1 The Gross Inflow .................................................................................................. 133 5.3.2 The Water Balance Results................................................................................... 134 5.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis for some of the Parameters................................................... 140

5.4 Application of the Water Balance Model to Selected Years................................... 141

5.4.1 The Gross Inflow and the Volume-Balance of Rivers .......................................... 141 5.4.2 The Agricultural Uses of Water ............................................................................ 142 5.4.3 The Groundwater Recharge, Drainage and the Free-surface Evaporation............ 146

5.5 Comparison with earlier Water Balances................................................................ 147 5.6 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 151

Water Demand and Supply at the Main Canal Level...............................................................155
6.

6.1 Water accounting at the main canal level................................................................ 156

6.1.1 The Water Accounting Boundaries....................................................................... 156 6.1.2 The Water Accounting Procedures ....................................................................... 157 6.1.3 The Gross Inflow, Reference ET and Crop Water Requirements......................... 158 6.1.4 Detailed Water Balance Results............................................................................ 160 6.1.5 The Water Uses in Agriculture ............................................................................. 166

6.2 Performance of the Irrigated Agriculture at the CCA Level................................. 168

6.2.1 Irrigation Performance .......................................................................................... 169 6.2.2 The Agriculture Performance................................................................................ 172

6.3 The Surface Water Management.............................................................................. 175

6.3.1 The planned Flexibility and Scope for Adjustments............................................. 175 6.3.2 The Reference Data for Water Distribution.......................................................... 178

6.4 Water Allocation and Operational Procedures as Management Tools................. 182

6.4.1 Before the Inception of Reservoirs and Link Canals: a Run-of-the-River System.. 183 6.4.2 After the Inception of Reservoirs and Link Canals............................................... 185 6.4.3 Role of WAA in Scheduling and Regulation........................................................ 186

6.5 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 187

Integrated Irrigation Network Modeling to Evaluate the Physical Constraints and
7.

Operational Rules...................................................................................................................................191

7.1 The Issues and Modeling Mechanism ...................................................................... 191

7.1.1 The Issues.............................................................................................................. 192 7.1.2 Selection of the model........................................................................................... 192 7.1.3 The Modeling Technique...................................................................................... 193 7.1.4 Representation of the Basin Network ................................................................... 194 7.1.5 Actual Operations of Reservoirs and Link Canals................................................ 198

7.2 Calibration of the Model and Preliminary Results................................................. 202 7.3 Understanding the Actual Operational Behavior ................................................... 204

7.3.1 Average Operations............................................................................................... 205 7.3.2 Simulation Results ................................................................................................ 205

7.4 The Technical Feasibility of Achieving Declared Targets...................................... 207

7.4.1 The Authorized Seasonal Discharges.................................................................... 208 7.4.2 The Water Apportionment Accord as a Target..................................................... 209 7.4.3 Comparing different operational scenarios for the system.................................... 210

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7.4.4 The Reliability of Achieving different Targets..................................................... 211

7.5 Future Perspectives.................................................................................................... 213

7.5.1 Reduction in Useable Surface Water .................................................................... 213 7.5.2 Additional Surface Water Storage ........................................................................ 214

7.6 Re-allocation Scope based on Network capacity and Water Balance ................... 216 7.7 Conclusions................................................................................................................. 218

Conclusion: the scope of surface water reallocation in the Indus Basin................................221
8.

8.1 The evolution of water allocation rules and their impact on water distribution.. 221

8.1.1 Design objectives and perception of irrigated agriculture in the Basin ................ 221 8.1.2 A changing irrigation environment ....................................................................... 223

8.2 Physical sustainability of the Water Resources....................................................... 227 8.3 Can Water Management be improved?................................................................... 228

8.3.1 Technical Feasibility of Surface Water Reallocation............................................ 229 8.3.2 Addressing the Institutional Constraints ............................................................... 230

8.4 Perspectives of Water Reallocation in the Indus Basin .......................................... 231 8.5 Perspectives for further research ............................................................................. 234 Tables of contents annexes .............................................................................................. 239 References......................................................................................................................... 265 Résumé détaillé................................................................................................................. 274

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Analytical framework of the Research................................................................................28 Figure 2.1: Relief map of Pakistan ........................................................................................................34 Figure 2.2: Agro-Climatic Zones of Pakistan........................................................................................35 Figure 2.3: Map 1 - Pakistan Physical Features, Precipitation and Irrigated Areas...............................37 Figure 2.4: Reference Evapotranspiration and Rainfall during Kharif 1993 and Rabi 1993-1994........39 Figure 2.5: Monthly variation of ET₀at selected locations in the Indus Basin......................................39 Figure 2.6: Thirty years average ten daily inflows of the major rivers of Pakistan ...............................40 Figure 2.7: Pre monsoon groundwater table in the basin - April/June 1996..........................................41 Figure 2.8: Raised water table after monsoon rains and Kharif irrigation-October 1996......................41 Figure 2.9: Groundwater quality of Indus Basin aquifer (TDS in ppm), determined by WASID
(WAPDA) in 1967. .......................................................................................................................42
Figure 2.10: Indus basin irrigation system – a schematic diagram ........................................................44 Figure 2.11: Design Seasonal Water Allowance of the main canal command areas (CCA) at watercourse head, the level at which allowance is fixed in the design procedures.......................46
Figure 2.12: Growth of population, cropped Area and Agriculture production.....................................48 Figure 2.13: National Agriculture Growth Indicators............................................................................48 Figure 2.14: Per capita cropped area and grain production (kg)............................................................49 Figure 2.15: Share of different crops in the GNP of Agriculture Sector................................................50 Figure 2.16: Cropping intensities of the Indus Basin canal commands during 1993-94........................51 Figure 2.17: The cropped area of Rabi seasons divided into wheat and “all other crops”.....................51 Figure 2.18: The main crops of Kharif season for different canal command areas (cotton, sugarcane, rice, “other crops”), as reported by the Provincial Irrigation Departments...................................51
Figure 2.19: Irrigation water use at the farm gate compared with the wheat yield for 14 secondary canals in the Chishtian Sub-division.............................................................................................54
Figure 3.1: Inundation canal design; flood embankment and selection of stable offtake locations on rivers .............................................................................................................................................65
Figure 3.2: The Indus Basin Rivers and Irrigation Canals in 1925, 1947, 1960 and 2002. ...................82 Figure 4.1: 20% probability ranges of the monthly rainfall...................................................................97 Figure 4.2: The gross annual rivers inflows and outflows.....................................................................99 Figure 4.3 Seasonal (Kharif, Rabi) outflow to the Sea ..........................................................................99 Figure 4.4: Outflow-inflow ratio of the Indus Rivers, comparison of the period “post Mangla” (1966-
1977) and “post Tarbela” (1978-1999). Data source: WAPDA..................................................100
Figure 4.5: The seasonal irrigation diversions for the period 1940-2000. Data source: WAPDA.......101 Figure 4.6: The gross Indus basin diversions as a percentage of River inflows ..................................101 Figure 4.7: Annual diversions to Punjab and Sindh.............................................................................102 Figure 4.8: Sindh Punjab annual diversions ratio ................................................................................102 Figure 4.9: Average seasonal diversions of Baluchistan and North-West Frontier .............................103 Figure 4.10: Monthly inflow, rain, diversions and outflow; 1987-88 was a year of high diversions ..104 Figure 4.11: Monthly inflow, rain, diversions and outflow; 1994-95 was a year of heavy rains.........104 Figure 4.12: Average depth to water table for the period 1978 to 2000 ..............................................106 Figure 4.13: Average groundwater tables of the canal command areas for the period 1978-2000. The thick line shows water levels in the year 2000............................................................................107
Figure 4.14: Groundwater table changes at 10 years interval in post Tarbela period..........................107 Figure 4.15: Groundwater quality (in % of land having access to “good” quality groundwater according to the WAPDA classification) and tubewell density in canal command areas............................108
Figure 4.16a and b: Seasonal water supply to the main canal command area (CCA) in mm during
Kharif 1993 and Rabi 1993-1994................................................................................................109
Figure 4.17 a and b: The seasonal coefficient of variation (cv) of the main canal diversions from 1967-
1999 ............................................................................................................................................111
Figure 4.18a & b: The changes in the canal diversions during Kharif and Rabi seasons ....................112 Figure 4.19: Seasonal diversions of the Punjab Group-I canals during 1967-1999.............................113 Figure 4.20: Seasonal diversions of the Punjab Group-II canals during 1967-1999............................114 Figure 4.21: Seasonal diversions of the Punjab Group-III canals during 1967-1999 ..........................115 Figure 4.22 a & b: Total and individual seasonal diversions of the Punjab Group-IV during 1967-1999
....................................................................................................................................................116
Figure 4.23: Seasonal diversions of the Sindh Group-I canals during 1967-1999...............................117 Figure 4.24: Seasonal diversions of the Sindh Group-II canals during 1967-1999 .............................118