Danish Scientists See Tough Times Ahead As Variant Rises Kai Kupferschmidt
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Corrected 4 February 2021. See full text. containing both the original spike and spikes COVID-19 altered to mimic variants of concern. J&J reported similar bottom lines from a far larger study of its vaccine, made by Danish scientists see tough its Janssen Pharmaceuticals division. The candidate, which like several two-dose COVID-19 vaccines uses a harmless adeno- times ahead as variant rises virus to deliver the gene for spike, was tested in 44,000 people in the United States, Latin Some say the country should reopen—even if it causes America, and South Africa. The single- cases to surge—once vulnerable populations are vaccinated dose vaccine had an overall efficacy of 66% against symptomatic disease, rising to 85% against severe symptoms, regard- By Kai Kupferschmidt Møller says. “It is a complete game changer.” less of a person’s age or underlying medical The same is likely happening in many conditions, the firm said. n its face, the curve of COVID-19 in- countries without being noticed. But a mas- The vaccine’s efficacy against mild disease fections in Denmark looks reassur- sive virus-sequencing effort has allowed was 72% in the United States and 66% in ing enough. A nationwide lockdown Denmark, a country of 5.8 million, to track Latin America, dropping to 57% in South Af- has led numbers to plummet from the rise of the new COVID-19 variant more rica. But no one who received it anywhere re- more than 3000 daily cases in mid- closely than any other country. “All eyes quired hospitalization for COVID-19 or died. December 2020 to just a few hun- are on Denmark right now,” says Kristian Downloaded from “This represents a dream vaccine for a doc- Odred now. But don’t be fooled. “Sure, the Andersen, an infectious diseases re- tor,” says Glenda Gray, a co-chair of the J&J numbers look nice,” says Camilla Holten searcher at Scripps Research who is ad- study and head of the South African Medical Møller of the Statens Serum Institute, who vising the Danish government. “When it Research Council. In South Africa, COVID-19 heads a group of experts modeling the epi- comes to B.1.1.7, is there a way in which … now is the No. 1 cause of death, eclipsing demic. “But if we look at our models, this is we can prevent the kind of calamity that HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. the calm before the storm.” we have seen in the U.K. and Ireland, for http://science.sciencemag.org/ J&J plans to file for emergency use autho- That’s because the graph really reflects example?” he asks. rization from the U.S. Food and Drug Ad- two epidemics: one, shrinking fast, that’s The data aren’t reassuring. Danish sci- ministration (FDA) this week and projects it caused by older variants of SARS-CoV-2, entists’ best guess is that B.1.1.7 spreads can produce 1 billion doses this year at about and a smaller, slowly growing outbreak of 1.55 times faster than previous variants, $10 per dose—one-sixth or less of the price B.1.1.7, the variant first recognized in Eng- Holten Møller says. To keep it from spiral- of two doses of the mRNA vaccines. Novavax land and now driving a big third wave of ing out of control, the country will have is discussing with FDA whether to wait for the pandemic there. If B.1.1.7 keeps spread- to remain in lockdown—or even add new a readout from a larger efficacy trial under- ing at the same pace in Denmark, it will control measures—until a large part of way in the United States, but says it can make become the dominant variant later this the population has been vaccinated. That 150 million doses per month as soon as May. month and cause the overall number of cases prospect is so unappealing that some It has not announced a price. to rise again, despite the lockdown, Holten epidemiologists say Denmark should con- on February 7, 2021 Gray and other researchers say the mRNA sider an alternative: Reopen once the most vaccines’ spectacular efficacy against any vulnerable people are vaccinated, even if COVID-19 symptoms may have become a A new virus gathers steam that means a big new surge in cases. misleading benchmark for a successful vac- Previous SARS-CoV-2 variants are rapidly declining Denmark reported B.1.1.7 within its cine given SARS-CoV-2’s evolution. Faced in Denmark (top), but B.1.1.7 is on the rise (bottom). borders in December 2020, soon after the with mutant strains like the one in South United Kingdom put the world on notice, Africa, those vaccines might not do much and has since stepped up an already im- better than Novavax’s and J&J’s products pressive virus-sequencing operation. Mads 25,000 did, they suspect. To many, solidly prevent- 20212020 Albertsen, a bacterial genome researcher ing severe disease, regardless of strain, is a 20,000 at Aalborg University, leads a team that significant win. “Do you want a vaccine that has sequenced virus genomes from more 15,000 prevents coughs or do you want a vaccine than half of all COVID-19 patients so far that prevents death?” asks Lawrence Corey 10,000 this year and hopes to reach 70% soon. of the University of Washington, Seattle, who It was clear by early January that B.1.1.7 5000 co-leads a trials network testing the J&J, No- was roughly doubling in frequency every vavax, and other vaccines bankrolled by the 0 week, says Lone Simonsen, an epidemio- U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed. 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 1 2 3 logist at Roskilde University. At that point, ; (DATA) STATENS SERUM INSTITUTE SERUM STATENS ; (DATA) And as the emerging variants show, de- Denmark had already closed schools and livering COVID-19 vaccines into more arms restaurants; to combat the new threat, the SCIENCE is urgent, and the more options, the better. lockdown was tightened by cutting the 600 “What I take away from this week,” says number of people allowed to gather from Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious disease physi- 400 10 to five, for example, and doubling the rec- cian at Boston Medical Center, “is that we ommended distance between people from have two more tools in our toolbox at a very 200 1 to 2 meters. That helped bring the overall precarious time.” j reproductive number (R) to a healthy 0.78, 0 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 1 2 3 according to the most recent estimate. But CREDITS: (GRAPHIC) V. ALTOUNIAN/ V. (GRAPHIC) CREDITS: With reporting by Meredith Wadman. B.1.1.7 still has an estimated R of 1.07; in SCIENCE sciencemag.org 5 FEBRUARY 2021 • VOL 371 ISSUE 6529 549 Published by AAAS Corrected 4 February 2021. See full text. NEWS | IN DEPTH other words, it’s growing exponentially. be hard to sustain as time goes on, he says. ASTRONOMY The country could take further steps such “There’s a huge pressure on the government as requiring people to work from home to reopen the country,” adds Thea Kølsen when possible and improving contact trac- Fischer, a virologist at the University of Co- Speedy robots ing, which becomes easier as the numbers penhagen. In a small first step, the govern- dwindle. Rolling out rapid tests could also ment is reopening schools for children in help, and more can be done to encourage pa- first to fourth grade on 8 February. gather spectra tients to isolate, says Michael Bang Petersen, Simonsen says the cost of extending a political scientist at Aarhus University; cur- the lockdown for many more months may rently, 15% of those who receive a positive prove too high. Instead, Denmark should for sky surveys test do not self-isolate. consider opening as soon as people over By doing more, Denmark can still rid it- age 50 and other vulnerable groups have Telescopes retrofitted self of B.1.1.7 and avert a third wave, says been vaccinated—an effort that is under- Andersen, who points out that case num- way. Reopening might trigger a sharp in- with hundreds of optical bers are falling in the United Kingdom, crease of cases among the unvaccinated, fibers dissect the light where B.1.1.7 now dominates: “It can be but few would presumably die. At that done, but it requires a tremendous amount point, society could start to think of SARS- of stars and galaxies of effort.” (He says Denmark should attempt CoV-2 more like influenza, which also oc- to end its epidemic altogether, New Zealand casionally kills healthy young people, she By Daniel Clery Downloaded from t was one of the stranger and more monotonous jobs in astronomy: plug- ging optical fibers into hundreds of holes in aluminum plates. Every day, technicians with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) prepped up to 10 plates http://science.sciencemag.org/ Ithat would be placed that night at the fo- cus of the survey’s telescopes in Chile and New Mexico. The holes matched the exact positions of stars, galaxies, or other bright objects in the telescopes’ view. Light from each object fell directly on a fiber and was whisked off to a spectrograph, which split the light into its component wavelengths, revealing key details such as what the ob- ject is made of and how it is moving. Now, after 20 years, the SDSS is going ro- on February 7, 2021 botic.