1 | Deciphering China’s AI Dream Deciphering China’s AI Dream The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of China’s strategy to lead the world in AI Jeffrey Ding* Centre for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford March 2018 *Address correspondence to
[email protected]. For comments and input, I thank: Miles Brundage, Allan Dafoe, Eric Drexler, Sophie-Charlotte Fisher, Carrick Flynn, Ben Garfinkel, Jimmy Goodrich, Chelsea Guo, Elsa Kania, Jade Leung, Jared Milfred, Luke Muehlhauser, Brian Tse, Helen Toner, and Baobao Zhang. A special thanks goes to Danit Gal for feedback that inspired me to rewrite significant portions of the report, Roxanne Heston for her generous help in improving the structure of the report, and Laura Pomarius for formatting and production assistance. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 7 I. CONTEXT 7 A. China’s AI expectations vs. current scale of AI industry 8 B. China’s AI ambitions vs. other countries’ AI strategies 11 II. COMPONENTS 14 A. Key consistencies and differences with other science and technology plans 14 B. Channels from these key features to drivers of AI development 16 III. CAPABILITIES 23 A. Evaluation of China’s current AI capacities by driver 23 i. Catch-up approach in hardware 23 ii. Closed critical mass of data 25 iii. Algorithm development is high-quality but still lacking in fundamental innovation 25 iv. Partnership with the private AI sector 27 B. Assessment of China’s position on the AI Potential Index 28 IV. CONSEQUENCES 30 A. Emerging engagement in AI ethics and safety 30 B.