A Thesis entitled

The Financial Futures of the NFL, NBA, and MLB A projection on these enterprises future values and a look at the context that goes behind it

By Cole Patty

as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Bachelor of Business Administration with Honors In Accounting and Finance

Adviser:______Dr. Thomas Sharkey

Honors College Director:______Robert Yonker

Dean Honors College:______Dr. Lakeesha Ransom

University of Toledo

December 2014 Abstract

While professional sports are highly ingrained in modern day culture, the business aspect is still largely ignored. These enterprises worth hundreds of millions of dollars keep finding new ways to grow expansively, yet that largely comes second place to what happens on game day.

This thesis intends to shed some light on those happenings, through extensive examination on research done by third parties. And will look to compare the major sports in America from a financial perspective. In hopes to show which game is the most powerful behind the scenes.

ii Acknowledgment

This thesis is dedicated to my family. Their support from the very beginning has been instrumental in me not only completing this project, but becoming the man I am today

iii Table of Contents

Abstract ………………...…………………………………………………………………ii

Acknowledgement……..…………………………………………………………………iii

Table of Contents ……..………………………………………………………………….iv

List of Figures and Tables ..……...……………………………………………………….v

Introduction ………………………………………………………………………...... 1

Review of Literature...………………………………………………………………….....7

Methodology……………………………………………………………………………..15

Analysis of Presentations or Findings………...……………….…………………………17

Summary, Conclusions, And Recommendations ……………..…………………………33

References ……………………………………………………………………………….35

iv List of Figures and Tables

Table Set One: Team Revenue Over The Years ………………………………………...17

Table Set Two: Sum of Team Revenues ……………………………………...…………20

Figure Set One: Regression Analysis …...………………………………………………22

Table Set Three: Projected Revenues ….………………………………………………..26

Figure Set Two: Projected Revenues in Line Graph Form ……………………………...27

Figure Set Three: Revenue Pie Chart for 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2028 …...…………….29

v Chapter I. Introduction

Introduction to the thesis subject

Professional sports engross society. Thousands of fans shuffe in on game day, entire network television channels dedicate to following sports around the clock, and thousands upon thousands of websites commit to sporting events. Yet with all that coverage, the business aspect to these enterprises aren’t covered to nearly the same degree as other issues. Yet that business angle is a quickly growing field of interest, with

Forbes giving out annual team valuations and ESPN turning some online coverage towards the issues of endorsements, collective bargaining agreements between players union and their owners, and even as something as simple as the evolution of ticket prices.

Business runs American professional sports associations. Without the potential to make money on the world’s greatest athletes, these highly televised events wouldn’t be ingrained into our culture; yet, we’re just scratching the surface of knowledge pertaining to the financial side of things. Furthermore, with more of a focus on the past, there is seemingly no place one can find projected revenues of the sports league. This study is dedicated to examining the future revenues these sports can reasonably make and the reasons why they could surpass or fall short of these projected numbers.

Background of the problem

1 The concept of viewing the NBA through a business scope arose while taking in the current events involving the National Basketball Association. The league and it’s respective teams seem to be growing at an exponential rate, seeing figures like former

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s attempt to buy the Clippers from Donald Sterling for a whopping $2 billion catches the eye. A franchise that was valued by Forbes at $575 million just in January, that $2 billion seems to be a mighty overpay at face value. Yet, there are stories written by ESPN’s Darren Rovell stating that the Golden State Warriors, who were valued at $450 million when purchased in November of 2010, were then valued at $800 million on August 16, 2013. Any company doubling their value in less than three years is outstanding no matter what the industry, which trickles into the thought that perhaps the Warriors and Clippers aren’t the only franchises appreciating at that rate in NBA, or the only teams in all of professional sports. There seems to be a fast growing business here, and the outstanding numbers it’s growing at makes one wonder what partners and competitors alike are doing in response to this growth.

Statement of the problem

If the NBA is growing this quickly, then are their major competitors growing as well? The NFL and MLB have always been stronger leagues in terms of finances, yet is the NBA potentially catching up to them? Are all three major sports leagues growing at the same rapid rate as the NBA? If so, what is the major cause in these leagues growing at a rapid rate? Are they positively benefited by the same events? And if they aren’t growing at that rapid rate, what could the NBA potentially be doing differently that could be making the difference financially. Furthermore, if there is something causing the NBA to grow at a faster rate than their competitors, how long could it last? Is there potential for

2 the NBA to keep growing at this rate long enough to surpass the MLB? The NFL? As stated earlier, there doesn’t seem to be much information on these types of financial issues in this particular landscape, leaving potential holes to be examined.

Purpose of the study and questions to be answered

Since professional sports reveals these information shortfalls, this project aims to project the future values of these professional leagues and the reasons why they could grow at different rates into the future. The hope is that with regression analysis run on the different financial inputs on the team and the general economy, the regression can project future revenues and paint a picture of what the future may hold for this multi-billion dollar industry. In turn, it can enlighten readers on the forecasted future revenue and give any potential context as to why these forecasts could be incorrect. The data will show the rate the organizations will grow at if continuing their current paths will fall short in predicting events that may steer the NFL, NBA, or MLB off track.

Assumptions

This study holds two major assumptions. In the regression analysis run, the future forecasted values of the major general economy projections were taken from an outside source. The author believes that these forecasts were done using a reasonable method, and could be used in other projections. The second major assumption is that some of the outside factors that could affect future revenues and values in meaningful ways could not be quantified. A great example of this that will be further explored is the National

Football League and concussions. Concussions are a brutal part of the game and, according to many opinions, are turning many fans and future footballer players away.

3 While there are examples where you exact dollar amount of concussion damages the NFL may suffer and apply it, like the recent lawsuit, the impact of loss of fans can’t be quantified despite being potentially substantial.

Rationale

One of the best features this project exudes is that it’s unique. Throughout the research process, there wasn’t much information found elsewhere that attempted to project financial revenues of major sporting enterprises. It’s impossible to say there is nothing like it with the vast amount of resources in the world, but the seemingly existent void of available knowledge gives it a one of a kind identity. The benefit that can be attained through this study is educating the customers of these businesses on the current social issues, the potential future social issues, and the financial potential these organizations they follow so closely hold.

Importance of the study

There are various factors in play to these enterprises, and there are select people spending large amounts of money to own these franchises. Will their investments be strong ones in the coming years, or are these valuations and sums being paid out going to be looked at as overpayment? Also, if one league surpasses the other in a financial way, is there any way we could have predicted it. These businesses are ingrained and prevalent our culture and so prevalent, yet most onlookers have no understanding of the financial side of the business.

Definition of Terms

4 NFL - National Football League, the major professional football league in the United

States

NBA - National Basketball Association, the major professional basketball league in the

United States

MLB - Major League Baseball, the major professional baseball league in the United

States

CBA - Collective Bargaining Agreement, and agreement reached between the player unions in their respective sports and the owners of the teams that employ them

Steroid Era - An era in the MLB where many major stars we’re accused of or indicted for using steroids or HGH, both banned substances by the MLB. Steroid and HGH both have a negative connotation around them for being an unfair advantage and a type of cheating.

Lockout - When the owners and player unions fail to reach a CBA agreement, a lockout occurs. None of the scheduled games between teams are played until an agreement is reached. This can be financially harmful to the league that is in lockout and the teams that reside in said league.

Scope and limitations of the study

5 This study will focus on only the NFL, MLB, and NBA. The National Hockey League’s recent run-ins with two major lockouts has placed it clearly behind the three leagues, despite a recent showing of strong numbers. This paper will not focus on individual athletes despite their power influencing the league is powerful. LeBron James, for example, is one of the world’s most powerful men financially, he can dictate where the money is going in the league, and this is not a focus on the money LeBron makes for himself. Any mention of a singular athlete will be for the benefit of the league or a specific team inside of the league.

Also, there was a recent television deal reached between the NBA and all of the companies owning the rights to show their games. This study was conducted before this deal was reached, thus any potential influence the deal may have is ignored in the project.

Outline of the Rest of the Project

● Literature Review ● Methodology a. Regression Analysis of Revenue of all 30 NBA teams, all 32 NFL teams, all 30 MLB teams b. Regression Analysis of Team Value of all 30 NBA teams, all 32 NFL teams, all 30 MLB teams c. Graphical representation of past, current, and forecasted revenue of the teams d. Graphical representation of past, current, and forecasted team value ● Analysis of the findings ● Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations

6 Chapter II. Review of the Literature

Organization, Existing Studies, and Possible Need

The literature review for this project comes from diverse sources. As stated above, there has not been much research conducted on the topic in the past, which is the driving force behind the need of the study. The likelihood of obtaining meaningful results is high.

It is less likely to get the degree of accuracy desired. The biggest issue affecting that likelihood is the inability to place a number on specific factors that help change the financial futures of these leagues. It is impossible to put an exact dollar amount on how concussions will affect the NFL going forward, how the MLB’s growth may no longer be stifled with the lessening steroid use, or how the international appeal of the NBA could exponentially increase the ability to grow in the long run. As much as it would be desirable for these projections to include number values next to these facts, it just is not feasible to throw out an estimated number. Sports are a business of entertainment, and it is hard to tell how events can sway popularity. Still, there is meaningful information that can be gathered, reviewed, and analyzed.

Report on the Literature Reviewed

7 The first immediate take away when researching the topic of financial setting behind professional sports comes from recognizing the kind of money-making- powerhouse the NFL is. On February 1, 2013, the NFL reported $9.5 billion in revenue for 2012. This put it ahead of every other sporting organization in the world. It was noted that the $4 billion the NFL made of television rights alone matched the entire revenue of the NBA that year (Isidore, 2013). Yet, the NFL is not satisfied with just being the best.

In a 2013 Forbes article, the league expressed their desire to reach an annual revenue amount of $25 billion by the year 2027. To potentially satisfy those aspirations, they have lined up $42 billion in revenue in television deals with NBC, CBS, Fox, and ESPN, and they still look to wrap up a deal with satellite TV provider DirectTV, whose five-year billion dollar deal ends in 2014 (Burke, 2013)

Another important point of the NFL was the fact that the teams were just more valuable in their league than in the NBA and MLB as a whole. Forbes conducts annual valuations of every MLB, NFL, and NBA team. In their recent NFL valuations that came out in August 2013, The Dallas Cowboys were number one in value for the NFL. They were valued at $2.3 billion dollars, which is only behind the New York Yankees for

American sports franchises, and netted the NFL $539 million dollars of revenue (Forbes,

2013). In fact, an earlier article Forbes ran in 2013 stated that of the 50 most valuable sports teams, 30 of them were part of the NFL. The two that did not make the top 50 were actually ranked 51 and 52, just missing the cut (Badenhausen, 2013). In fact, the lowest ranked team in the August 2013 NFL Valuations, the Oakland Raiders, would rate highly if it was an MLB or NBA team. The Raiders were valued at $825 million (Forbes, 2013).

If they were an NBA team, they would have ranked fifth in the January 2014 NBA

8 valuations (Forbes, January 2014). Also, as a comparison, $825 million was equal to the

Texas Rangers, the seventh ranked MLB team in the March 2014 MLB Valuation

(Forbes, March 2014). Theses numbers reveal the head of steam the NFL has going forward.

The high valuations does not mean the NFL comes without flaw. Many questions swirl around the NFL and the concussions that result from playing the sport. On August

29, 2013, the NFL released an official press release on their website stating they reached a $765 million settlement with former players from their league. The press release details that more than 4,500 athletes who once played in the NFL sued the league under the accusation that it had concealed the dangers of concussions to them (NFL, 2013).

However, in January, a federal judge denied this settlement. U.S. District Judge Anita B.

Brody asked that more financial analysis would be conducted by the involved parties, with fear that not all former NFL players requiring money would be paid in a $765 million settlement (Rovell and Associated Press, 2014). This was an exorbitant amount of money needing to be given to former players, and a judge still found that it wasn’t enough. Concussions will have a huge impact on the NFL going forward, both ethically and financially.

Despite being lapped by the NFL, a major reason the NBA is such a dynamic addition to the group is the rapid rate that it financially grows at. On August 16, 2013,

Darren Rovell wrote a post on ESPN.com that reported NBA’s Golden State Warriors grew from a $450 milllion valuation to $800 million in a matter of less than three years

(Rovell, 2013). Earlier this week, a judge ruled that Donald Sterling could not block his wife Shelly from selling the Clippers to Steve Ballmer for $2 billion (Brown, 2014).

9 Regardless of the political implications attached to the sale, the Clippers had only been valued at $575 million this year. This sale meant that a team regarded as average went for the amount only one NFL team (Forbes, 2013) and two MLB teams (Forbes, March

2014) could rival in the recent valuations. The Milwaukee Bucks were also sold this summer, with much less media attention as the Clippers. Still, even as the lowest valued team in Forbes’ valuations, the Bucks received more money than what the valuation stated it was worth (Forbes, January 2014). The reported deal was $550 million between former owner between Herb Kohl and the duo of Wesley Edens and Mark Lasry (Stein,

2014). In comparison to their 2013 values, NBA teams grew at an average of 24.17% over the course of the past year (Forbes, January 2014).

Another significant factor in the future value of the league is the increasing international appeal of the game. The NBA is growing at a level across the border that neither the NFL nor MLB seem to have seized. In an interview with Financial Post, Dan

McKenzie -- vice president and general manager of NBA Canada -- explained the different mediums the NBA was able to achieve this kind of growth in Canada. The beginning of the article states that the NBA’s revenue had grown in Canada by 224% since 2008. In the first answer, McKenzie gave some numbers behind why that is the reason. Broadcast numbers were raised by 19% in the past years and merchandise sales were up 103% over that time frame. He also stated that participation in basketball was important, and the 16% rate the sport was growing at exceeded soccer and hockey.

However, Canada is not the only place where the NBA is experiencing international success; McKenzie gives a hint, mentioning there are 300 million basketball players in

China (Ovsey, 2013). In an official PDF put out by the NBA’s statistical partner, STATS,

10 China stands as the NBA’s number two market worldwide. Games are watched by more than 30 million Chinese viewers per week (STATS). In the last three seasons the NBA have brought a record 16 billion pageviews and 9 billion video views from

NBA.com/China. In 2012 alone, season pageviews jumped up by 40% and video views jumped up by 180% (Groves, 2013). The NBA launched NBA China as a $253 million investment, and it was estimated to be worth $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in 2014 and grossed $200 million in revenue in the past year (Badenhausen, 2014). Tapping into a foreign market with huge potential, the NBA is already finding substantial success.

Growing in this manner can open up the door to many opportunities the NFL and MLB may not see for some time.

As far as the NFL’s effort to bring in foreign capital, there is almost no information addressing China. Europe, specifically the U.K., seems to be their international focus. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell was quoted as saying an NFL team in Europe “could be 5 or 10 years away.” This belief is backed by the perceived demand the league feels it has in this area (Smith, 2014). They also have planned to play three games during their 2014 season in London (ESPN, 2013). As for baseball, Japan seems to be the major international driver. A 2013 study done by Isao Okada and Stephen

A. Greyser claims that the MLB sold $300 million per year of licensed goods in Japan when Ichiro Suzuki was a Seattle Mariner (Okada and Greyser, 2013), showing the kind of power a Japanese superstar can have on a team and the league as a whole.

While the potential for the NBA could be viewed at as higher than these other two leagues, there are some major impediments standing in their way. The biggest issue in the

NBA is that it is not cashing in on two of the biggest domestic markets. Atlanta is 27th in

11 the Forbes team valuation list, boasting numbers like $11 of revenue per fan, -$4 million in operating income, and $119 million in revenue (Forbes, January 2014). For a city of

447,841 people with the only team in a state of 9,992,167 people, this is a surprisingly low number (U.S. Census Bureau). As for the Washington Wizards, they’re doing better but only slightly. As the 21st most valuable team, the Wizards make only $12 of revenue per fan and had an operating income of $7 million (Forbes, January 2014), despite having

646,449 (U.S. Census Bureau) people residing in the District of Columbia. As a contrast, fellow NBA team the San Antonio Spurs make $58 of revenue per fan (Forbes, January

2014) and the Washington Redskins -- also located in D.C. -- makes $37 of revenue per fan (Forbes, 2013).

Moreover, there is a looming lockout that could financially stifle the NBA. A good example of the pains a lockout or player strike can cause a sports league comes from the MLB player strike of 1994-95. According to an Illinois Business Law Journal publication, attendance dropped by 10 million people the following season after in both of MLB’s American and National League (Lenhardt, 2010). In the paper Steroids and

Major League Baseball, the potential negative affect of steroids can be shown also in the dip in franchise revenue from $70 million to $60 million (Grossman, Kimsey, Moreen,

Owings). With the league expecting a lockout in 2017 (Helin, 2014), the NBA could be stifled to grow financially, damaging all the progress it has made through both foreign and domestic channels.

The MLB has been working hard to escape from the stigma their steroid era has created by strengthening their anti-doping policies. Progress has been made to a degree.

The last group of players suspended from steroids according to spotrac’s MLB

12 fine/suspension tracker was from the Biogenesis scandal that saw 15 players suspended in the past few months. The next suspension related to steroids before that specific group of

15 occurred in 2012 Spotrac, 2014). This is a far cry from the days where steroid news was seemingly updating on ESPN daily, and can only have a positive effect on the MLB financially. Steroids and Major League baseball attempted to estimate the impact steroids had financially that season. They calculated that franchises lost an average of $37.6 million in revenue for 2005 (Grossman, Kimsey, Moreen, Owings). Now that steroids are increasingly becoming yesterday’s news instead of today’s headline, and the MLB can go forward at a faster pace.

The biggest issue holding back the MLB going forward is the fan demographic.

The average age of viewers this past World Series was 54.4 years old, up from 49.9 in

2009. Additionally kids aged 6-17 made up for just 4.3% of the viewers of the National

League and American League Championship Games. In comparison, children made up

9.4% of the respective Eastern and Western conference Finals in the NBA. In 2003, 2.5 million children watched the two league championship series, but there were only

542,000 this year. Additionally, only 2.1 million played little league baseball in 2013, while 2.6 million played in 1997 (Futterman, 2013). Without gaining new and younger fans, there is a chance the MLB may be impeded in the long run.

Brief Summary of the Literature Reviewed

● The Forbes valuations are the baseline of this project. Using these statistics will

help mold the graphs and charts used in the methodology.

13 ● For the NFL, it’s all about controlling what they already have. The league is

number one and looks powerful from top to bottom. There are issues such as lack

of international appeal and the health concerns involving concussions, but with

the kind of TV revenue it makes it is sitting in good position.

● For the NBA, they’re the up and comer. They’re growing at a fast rate and have a

type of international appeal that the MLB and NFL don’t show. Still they’re little

brother and need to capitalize on certain domestic markets.

● For the MLB, it’s nice that they’re resurrecting from the shadow of the Steroid

Era and becoming a cleaner product. They need to attract younger fans, however,

and be able to market teams, not just individual players overseas.

14 Chapter III Methodology

Description of the Methodology

The study took the revenue of all thirty-two NFL teams, all thirty NBA teams, and all thirty MLB teams and lumped into three sums for each league labeled as NFL, MLB, and

NBA. There isn’t a reliable data source for the reported league revenues as a whole. This was perceived as a less desirable but still useful alternative. These three pools of revenue were run in a regression model against four standard economy measures. After the regression was run, the revenue was then projected all the way out to year 2028.

Methodological Assumptions

It is determined that the revenue of all thirty teams serves as a good indicator of the revenue of the entire league, while acknowledging that these are two completely separate entities. It is assumed that the projected amount for gold, crude oil, S&P, Euro/$ exchange rate, and LIBOR 3M are projected on a solid foundation from the source taken from. It is assumed that Forbes’s team valuations are stable ground to project revenue from, as Forbes is considered a credible financial media outlet.

Limitations of study - weakness

There was one major limitation of the study. The regression features more general economy variables than direct industry variables. It was extremely difficult to find

15 projections on variables that were more specific to professional sports. Thus the study turned to the next best alternative.

16 Chapter IV Analysis of Presentation or Findings

Findings or results of the study are presented

The first step was to sum up the revenues of all the sports teams into pools for each respective league. The following is the summation of these numbers (as done in

Microsoft Excel). Since the NBA valuations and MLB valuations are done in early 2014 -

- January and March respectively -- and the NFL valuations are not until late 2013, it is assumed that the NBA and MLB revenues are based off the 2013 season and thus are labeled as 2013. Also, to keep data consistent, 2004’s revenues are removed from the

NBA because of the fact there were only 29 teams in 2004, while adding a 30th team in

2005.

NFL:

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cowboys 205 231 235 242 269 280 420 406 500 539 Patriots 191 236 250 255 282 302 318 333 380 408 Redskins 245 287 303 312 327 345 353 352 373 381 Giants 154 175 182 195 214 230 241 293 326 338 Texans 201 215 222 225 239 256 272 283 304 320 Jets 152 172 179 193 213 227 238 285 299 321 Eagles 198 216 218 224 237 250 260 274 296 306 Bears 175 193 201 209 226 241 254 266 286 298 Ravens 172 192 201 205 226 240 255 262 279 292 49ers 151 171 171 186 201 214 226 234 245 255 Colts 145 166 167 184 203 233 248 252 286 276 Packers 168 189 194 197 218 232 242 259 276 282

17 Broncos 183 202 207 212 226 240 250 255 276 283 Steelers 159 182 187 198 216 235 243 255 266 266 Dolphins 170 190 194 215 232 242 247 253 265 268 Buccaneer 175 195 203 205 224 241 246 245 258 267 s Panthers 169 195 199 203 221 238 247 257 269 271 Titans 164 186 189 196 216 232 242 250 262 270 Chiefs 159 181 186 196 214 228 235 252 259 245 Vikings 144 164 167 182 195 209 221 227 227 234 Browns 183 203 206 206 220 235 242 247 258 264 Saints 157 175 160 194 213 232 245 261 259 276 Cardinals 131 153 158 189 203 223 236 240 246 253 Chargers 148 165 170 197 207 224 233 241 246 250 Falcons 144 168 170 185 203 214 231 233 239 252 Bengals 150 171 175 194 205 222 232 236 235 250 Lions 168 186 178 189 204 206 210 228 231 248 Rams 157 176 179 193 206 217 223 228 231 239 Bills 152 173 176 189 206 222 228 236 240 256 Jaguars 153 169 173 189 204 217 220 236 238 260 Raiders 149 169 171 189 205 215 217 217 226 229 Total 5172 5846 5971 6348 6875 7342 7775 8096 8581 8897

MLB:

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Yankees 264 277 302 327 375 441 427 440 471 461 Dodgers 166 189 211 224 241 247 246 230 245 293 Red Sox 201 206 234 263 269 266 272 310 336 357 Cubs 170 179 197 214 239 246 258 266 274 266 Giants 159 171 184 197 196 201 230 230 262 316 Phillies 167 176 183 192 216 233 239 249 279 265 Rangers 142 153 155 172 176 180 206 233 239 257 Cardinals 151 165 184 194 195 195 207 233 239 283 Mets 180 195 217 235 261 268 233 225 232 238 Angels 147 167 187 200 212 217 222 226 239 253 Braves 162 172 183 199 186 188 201 203 225 253 Mariners 173 179 182 194 189 191 204 211 215 210 Nationals 80 145 144 153 184 184 194 200 225 244 White Sox 131 157 173 193 196 194 210 214 216 210 Tigers 126 146 170 173 186 188 192 218 238 262 Orioles 148 156 158 166 174 171 175 179 206 198 Padres 150 158 160 167 174 157 159 164 189 207

18 Blue Jays 107 136 157 160 172 163 168 188 203 218 Twins 102 114 131 149 158 162 213 213 214 221 Reds 127 137 146 161 171 166 179 185 202 209 Diamondb 136 145 154 165 177 172 180 186 195 192 acks Rockies 132 145 151 169 178 183 188 194 199 197 Pirates 109 125 137 139 144 145 160 168 178 204 Indians 139 150 158 181 181 170 168 178 186 196 Brewers 112 131 144 158 173 171 179 195 201 197 Astros 155 173 184 193 194 189 197 196 196 186 Marlins 103 119 122 128 139 144 143 148 195 159 Athletics 116 134 146 154 160 155 161 161 173 187 Royals 104 117 123 131 143 155 160 161 169 178 Rays 110 116 134 138 160 156 166 162 167 181 Sum 4269 4733 5111 5489 5819 5898 6137 6366 6808 7098

NBA:

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Knicks 181 185 196 208 202 226 244 243 287 Lakers 156 167 170 191 209 214 208 197 295 Bulls 136 149 161 165 168 169 185 162 195 Celtics 110 111 117 149 144 151 146 143 169 Nets 87 93 102 98 92 89 89 84 190 Rockets 141 142 149 156 160 153 150 135 191 Heat 119 132 131 131 126 124 158 150 188 Mavericks 124 140 140 153 154 146 166 137 162 Warriors 81 89 103 112 113 119 139 127 160 Spurs 121 122 131 138 133 135 139 135 167 Thunder 81 81 81 82 111 118 126 127 144 Trail 78 77 82 114 121 127 132 117 140 Blazers Clippers 83 95 98 99 102 102 108 108 128 Suns 132 132 145 148 148 147 136 121 137 Magic 82 89 92 100 107 108 140 126 139 Kings 119 126 128 117 109 103 104 96 115 Jazz 91 96 114 119 118 121 120 111 131 Raptors 94 105 124 138 133 138 134 121 149 Cavs 102 115 152 159 159 161 149 128 145 Nuggets 94 100 104 112 115 113 113 110 124 Wizards 106 108 112 118 110 107 109 102 122 Pacers 108 110 107 101 97 95 101 98 121

19 76ers 110 110 112 116 115 110 116 107 117 Grizzlies 98 101 98 95 88 92 99 96 126 Pistons 134 138 154 160 171 147 141 125 139 Timberwo 101 103 103 100 96 95 97 96 116 lves Hawks 87 92 95 102 103 105 109 99 119 Pelicans 78 83 91 95 95 100 109 100 116 Bobcats 73 89 93 95 96 98 101 93 115 Total 3107 3280 3485 3671 3695 3713 3868 3594 4447

Then, the sum is pooled together and weighed against five general economic indicators.

Those indicators are located in the next three tables with future projections for the end

2014 through to the year 2028. Those projections were acquired through The Economy

Forecast Agency.

NFL:

Year Revenue S&P Euro/$ Oil Gold LIBOR 3M 2004 5172 1126.21 1.285 37.66 435.6 2.5582 2005 5846 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 5971 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 6348 1468.36 1.370412 64.2 836.5 4.9794 2008 6875 903.25 1.471366 91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 7342 1115.1 1.39448 53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 7775 1257.64 1.327386 71.21 1420.25 0.3027 2011 8096 1257.6 1.392705 87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 8581 1426.19 1.285697 86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 8897 1848.36 1.328464 91.17 1236.95 0.2442 2014 2325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263 2018 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198

20 2024 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206 2026 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

MLB:

Year MLB Team S&P Euro/$ Oil Gold LIBOR Revenue 3M 2004 4269 1126.21 1.285 37.66 435.6 2.5582 2005 4733 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 5111 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 5489 1468.36 1.370412 64.2 836.5 4.9794 2008 5819 903.25 1.471366 91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 5898 1115.1 1.39448 53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 6137 1257.64 1.327386 71.21 1420.25 0.3027 2011 6366 1257.6 1.392705 87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 6808 1426.19 1.285697 86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 7098 1848.36 1.328464 91.17 1236.95 0.2442 2014 2325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263 2018 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198 2024 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206 2026 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

NBA:

Year NBA Team S & P Exchange Rate Crude Gold LIBOR Revenue Index Euro/$ Oil 3M

21 2005 3107 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 3280 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 3485 1,468.36 1.370412 $64.20 836.5 4.9794 2008 3671 903.25 1.471366 $91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 3695 1,115.10 1.39448 $53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 3713 1,257.64 1.327386 $71.21 1420.2 0.3027 5 2011 3868 1,257.60 1.392705 $87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 3594 1,426.19 1.285697 $86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 4447 1,848.36 1.328464 $91.17 1236.9 0.2442 5 2014 2,325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263 2018 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198 2024 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206 2026 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

The regression is then run. Here are the statistical results of the regression. This shows that these tests are statistically significant.

NFL:

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.986748 R Square 0.973672 Adjusted R Square 0.940761 Standard Error 304.7334 Observations 10

22 ANOVA Significance df SS MS F F Regression 5 13736854 2747371 29.58538 0.002953 Residual 4 371449.8 92862.44 Total 9 14108304

Standard Upper Lower Upper Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0% - Intercept 1841.083 3152.234 0.584056 0.590534 -6910.92 10593.09 6910.92 10593.09 - X Variable 1 1.479394 0.54425 2.718226 0.053084 -0.03169 2.990473 0.03169 2.990473 - X Variable 2 1116.292 2141.213 0.521336 0.629665 -4828.67 7061.253 4828.67 7061.253 - X Variable 3 15.56736 9.555798 1.629101 0.178624 -10.9638 42.09851 10.9638 42.09851 - X Variable 4 1.133648 0.506073 2.240086 0.088613 -0.27144 2.538732 0.27144 2.538732 - X Variable 5 -192.644 83.09975 -2.31823 0.081295 -423.366 38.07789 423.366 38.07789

MLB:

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.983588 R Square 0.967445 Adjusted R Square 0.92675 Standard Error 241.9266 Observations 10

ANOVA Significance df SS MS F F Regression 5 6957138 1391428 23.77352 0.004487 Residual 4 234113.8 58528.46 Total 9 7191252

Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper Lower

23 Error 95% 95.0% Intercept 391.8626 2502.545 0.156586 0.883157 -6556.32 7340.043 -6556.32 7340.043 X Variable 1 1.204031 0.432078 2.78661 0.049483 0.004392 2.403671 0.004392 2.403671 X Variable 2 1629.607 1699.9 0.958648 0.392023 -3090.07 6349.286 -3090.07 6349.286 X Variable 3 15.24884 7.586308 2.010048 0.114793 -5.81413 36.31181 -5.81413 36.31181 X Variable 4 0.748787 0.401769 1.863724 0.135814 -0.3667 1.864278 -0.3667 1.864278 X Variable 5 -88.0713 65.97254 -1.33497 0.252799 -271.24 95.0978 -271.24

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.975633 R Square 0.951859 Adjusted R Square 0.871624 Standard Error 135.9205 Observations 9

NBA:

ANOVA Significance df SS MS F F Regression 5 1095844 219168.7 11.86339 0.034323 Residual 3 55423.14 18474.38 Total 8 1151267

Standard Upper Lower Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% Intercept 155.4704 1579.701 0.098418 0.927808 -4871.84 5182.784 -4871.84 5182.784 X Variable 1 1.019158 0.244 4.176882 0.024995 0.242642 1.795674 0.242642 1.795674 X Variable 2 1846.925 1005.046 1.837652 0.163419 -1351.58 5045.431 -1351.58 5045.431 X Variable 3 5.241446 4.31858 1.213697 0.311699 -8.5022 18.98509 -8.5022 18.98509 X Variable 4 -0.3989 0.265672 -1.50146 0.230234 -1.24438 0.446592 -1.24438 0.446592 X Variable 5 -135.779 45.73428 -2.96887 0.059122 -281.326 9.767927 -281.326 9.767927

24 Then the future revenues of the NFL, NBA, and MLB are projected. By multiplying the coefficients of the variables together, adding them together, and then adding them to the intercepts coefficient. The results are displayed in both table form and chart form.

NFL Table:

Year Revenue S&P Euro/$ Oil Gold LIBOR 3M 2004 5172 1126.21 1.285 37.66 435.6 2.5582 2005 5846 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 5971 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 6348 1468.36 1.370412 64.2 836.5 4.9794 2008 6875 903.25 1.471366 91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 7342 1115.1 1.39448 53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 7775 1257.64 1.327386 71.21 1420.25 0.3027 2011 8096 1257.6 1.392705 87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 8581 1426.19 1.285697 86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 8897 1848.36 1.328464 91.17 1236.95 0.2442 2014 9640.319 2325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 9202.295 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 9530.683 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 10401.21 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263 2018 10527.01 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 11558.05 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 12489.88 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 12775.76 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 13819.76 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 15918.29 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198 2024 15475.8 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 17953.97 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206 2026 18299.01 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 19440.43 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 19716.97 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

NFL Chart:

25 Revenue 25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

MLB Table:

Year MLB S&P Euro/$ Oil Gold LIBOR Team 3M Revenue 2004 4269 1126.21 1.285 37.66 435.6 2.5582 2005 4733 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 5111 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 5489 1468.36 1.370412 64.2 836.5 4.9794 2008 5819 903.25 1.471366 91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 5898 1115.1 1.39448 53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 6137 1257.64 1.327386 71.21 1420.25 0.3027 2011 6366 1257.6 1.392705 87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 6808 1426.19 1.285697 86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 7098 1848.36 1.328464 91.17 1236.95 0.2442 2014 7798.493 2325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 7413.632 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 7662.685 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 8396.374 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263 2018 8514.041 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 9402.89 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 10243.68 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 10527.6 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 11413.29 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 13210.94 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198 2024 12933.17 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 14940.26 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206

26 2026 15210.99 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 16222.23 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 16479.65 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

MLB Chart:

MLB Team Revenue 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

NBA Table:

Year NBA S & P Exchange Crude Gold LIBOR Team Index Rate Oil 3M Revenue Euro/$ 2005 3107 1180.59 1.30753 50.04 513 4.5298 2006 3280 1418.3 1.21432 58.3 635.7 5.3601 2007 3485 1,468.36 1.370412 $64.20 836.5 4.9794 2008 3671 903.25 1.471366 $91.48 869.75 1.8294 2009 3695 1,115.10 1.39448 $53.48 1087.5 0.2531 2010 3713 1,257.64 1.327386 $71.21 1420.25 0.3027 2011 3868 1,257.60 1.392705 $87.04 1531 0.5557 2012 3594 1,426.19 1.285697 $86.46 1664 0.3095 2013 4447 1,848.36 1.328464 $91.17 1236.95 0.2442 2014 5067.282 2,325 1.33 107 1108 0.243 2015 4774.723 2099 1.33 98 1142 0.254 2016 5052.829 2408 1.3 96 1080 0.222 2017 5488.931 2824 1.22 123 1020 0.263

27 2018 5556.389 2864 1.22 128 1013 0.28 2019 6522.346 3618 1.32 119 930 0.082 2020 7267.66 4147 1.4 126 883 0.06 2021 7472.821 4231 1.43 136 857 0.05 2022 8046.472 4756 1.38 160 823 0.112 2023 9548.076 6052 1.43 174 756 0.198 2024 9342.063 5655 1.54 175 768 0.235 2025 10794.98 7142 1.4 207 707 0.206 2026 11155.01 7461 1.44 195 696 0.062 2027 11888.34 7987 1.48 216 680 0.011 2028 11814.29 7865 1.45 242 756 0.013

NBA Chart:

NBA Team Revenue 14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Finally, pie charts are displayed to show how the three league’s revenue related to each other changes over time. A larger piece of the pie chart means that the NFL, NBA, or

MLB control a larger command over the total revenue the three league’s produced. This is to show how the power is shifted, even to small degrees. The charts look similar, signifying that change will come at a slow rate. Despite looking similar, they are not identical in the numbers behind them. The NFL accounted for 44% of the total revenue in

2013, decreasing to 43% by 2018, and finally down to 41% in 2023. It stayed at 41%

28 from 2023 to 2028. The MLB stayed at 35% in 2018, the same percentage of revenue it held in 2013. It went down 1% in both the 2023 and 2028 chart however, ending at 43%.

It’s interesting to note the NBA is the only league whose percentage of the total revenue went up over this time frame. The league started out at 22% in 2013, went to 23% in

2018, and reached one fourth of all revenue in 2023. The NBA stayed there at 2028, finishing with 25%. This is most likely attributed to the speed the league has been increasing fiscally in the past few seasons.

2013 Pie Chart:

2013 Revenue

NFL MLB NBA

29 2018 Pie Chart:

2018 Revenue

NFL MLB NBA

2023 Pie Chart:

Revenue 2023

NFL MLB NBA

Pie Chart 2028:

30 Revenue 2028

NFL MLB NBA

Relation to Theory

The first intent of this study was to explain how the NBA could become the most lucrative sports enterprise in the world. The study doesn’t disprove my theory, but the growth in revenue of all thirty teams certainly does not bode well for them. The NBA started in third place out of all leagues and finished there. Their hold of the market share didn’t drastically change either. The NBA took 25% of the 2028 Revenue Pie Chart versus 22% of the 2013 Revenue Pie Chart. There was growth there -- but not much. The chart doesn’t disprove that the NBA won’t overcome their current position. However, with no weight in the regression about the international growth that has been achieved by the league in the recent years, it’s possible that this methodology is wrong. It is also worth noting how these projections coincide with Roger Goodell’s desire for the NFL to be at $25 billion in annual revenue by 2027. According to the regression, the NFL will fall short by about $6 billion. Again, though, it’s impossible to implement dollar values

31 on potential future events, such as the concussion lawsuit and the chance an NFL team does go on to succeed in Europe.

32 Chapter V Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations

Brief Summary

The business side of the sports world is a fascinating realm, and humanity is only scratching the surface of the intricacies. The inability to put dollar amounts on future behavior proves to be the biggest downfall, and the fact is much of the business made throughout these enterprises relies on that human behavior. The statistical result predicts a world where the NFL is still king, with MLB in second and the NBA a distant third.

However, there is enough context behind that, while the results are valuable, they will likely be incorrect throughout the next 14 years. Yet, the regressions were run at a statistically significant rate, which means a picture can be painted for the future. A $25 billion goal for the NFL seems like such a huge number, but this projection was much closer than many would have expected.

Conclusions

For the NBA to become the largest league in the world, from a financial standpoint, they will likely need keep expanding internationally at this unprecedented rate. It’s not impossible. However, it will need a real boost to attain that goal. As for the MLB, the fan demographic issue may be overblown, but they are still away from touching the NFL regardless. It’s still an issue, and marketing more towards younger fans certainly won’t hurt. Gaining back some of the revenue that was lost from past drug abuse can also give

33 the MLB a push in the right direction. For the NFL, it’s a juggernaut that will likely keep going into the future. They’re only a couple right decisions away from attaining that $25 billion in annual revenue that they have their sights set on.

Recommendations for implementing the findings and further research

The projections, as they are, are perfectly usable in further implementation. All the regressions are statistically significant. This makes them usable for whatever purpose desired. As for further research recommendations, the possibility of using and projecting more sports industry related variables in the regressions could result in a better regression model. Jersey sales, ticket prices, TV ratings are but a few to name. The real issue is finding forecasts of those numbers, but it would make these results significantly better.

Brief Conclusion

This is just the tip of the iceberg. As we move deeper into the 2000’s, there will be more and more data available to us about the business side of sports. The industry makes too much money as an entire unit for there not to be. As our media and interests move closer to it, more efficient and relevant data should surface. A newly growing study in a quickly growing enterprise, the money that drives our players, teams, and leagues is evolving before our very eyes.

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39