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Credit Bureau Asia Ltd ADD INITIATION Company Note Financial Services - Others │ Singapore │ March 16, 2021 Insert Insert Singapore Credit Bureau Asia Ltd ADD Consensus ratings*: Buy 0 Hold 0 Sell 0 Resilient through peaks and troughs Current price: S$1.26 ■ CBA’s value proposition lies in the need for credit information to assess Target price: S$1.53 counterparty risks across periods of economic growth and market uncertainty. Previous target: N/A ■ Its resilient business model held revenues steady through Covid-19, rising Up/downside: 21.2% 7% yoy in FY20 as bulk risk reviews offset weaker credit application volumes. CGS-CIMB / Consensus: na ■ We initiate coverage on CBA with a TP of S$1.53. The commencement of the Reuters: TCU.SI commercial credit info business under its FI Data Business is a key catalyst. Bloomberg: CBA SP Market cap: US$215.7m S$290.3m Dominant market position in Singapore; resilient business model Average daily turnover: US$1.48m Credit Bureau Asia Limited (CBA) is Singapore’s market leader (by revenue) in the credit S$1.96m and risk information solutions (CRIS) space. We view CBA’s business model to be Current shares o/s: 203.5m resilient across economic cycles – as a gauge of creditworthiness during periods of Free float: 24.7% economic growth and to assess counterparty risk during cycle troughs. The defensive *Source: Bloomberg nature of CBA’s operations boosted revenues by +7% yoy in FY20 as stronger demand for review reports from financial institutions and commercial clients offset weaker loan applications volumes. We expect the risk review volumes to sustain as business sentiment recovers, underpinning EPS growth expectations of 8-28% yoy in FY21-22F. Price Close Relative to FSSTI (RHS) High barriers of entry; first-mover in Cambodia and Myanmar 1.60 164.0 CBA’s entrenched position in Singapore – through its subsidiary Credit Bureau 1.40 146.5 (Singapore) Pte Ltd (CBS) – is underpinned by a favourable regulatory environment in 1.20 129.0 Singapore. Institutions wishing to conduct a lending business are required by the 1.00 111.5 0.80 94.0 Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to make enquiries with a credit bureau prior to 15 10 commencing operations. Barriers of entry into the CRIS industry are high, given CBS’s 5 history in the industry (c.18 years), cementing its headway in data collection far beyond a Vol m Vol Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 new player’s reach. At present, the joint ventures (JVs) of CBA are the sole credit Source: Bloomberg bureaus in Cambodia and Myanmar, allowing for first-mover advantages. Price performance 1M 3M 12M Highly cash generative; minimal capex requirements Absolute (%) -11.9 28.6 CBA is highly cash generative (S$20.6m in operation cashflow in FY20) given its Relative (%) -17.7 20.5 business model of aggregating and repackaging credit information into useable reports Major shareholders % held and data packets for sale. Capex requirements are minimal and are mainly for upgrading Koo Chiang 67.8 technology infrastructure. We believe that CBA’s operating cashflow will be more than Lim Wah Liang 7.5 sufficient to cover future development capex (c.S$4m in FY21F, normalising to c.S$1.5m Standard Life Aberdeen PLC 2.4 thereafter), sustaining its net cash position. Insert Solid growth ahead on progressive economic recovery We forecast EBITDA to grow c. 8-18% in FY21-23F as elevated levels of portfolio monitoring requests offset support revenue growth as credit demand recovers. We initiate coverage on CBA with a TP of S$1.53 based on DCF methodology (LT growth: 1.2%, WACC: 7.0%, risk-free rate: 1.5%, beta: 0.9). The commencement of its commercial credit bureau business (FI Data Business) and start-up of four digital banks in Singapore are key catalysts. Technological security breaches are a key downside risk for CBA. Analyst(s) Financial Summary Dec-19A Dec-20A Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Revenue (S$m) 40.62 43.38 48.27 52.71 57.13 Operating EBITDA (S$m) 22.11 24.06 27.96 30.02 32.26 Net Profit (S$m) 7.38 8.20 9.53 10.36 11.22 Core EPS (S$) 0.035 0.035 0.047 0.051 0.055 Core EPS Growth (1.7%) 35.6% 8.7% 8.3% FD Core P/E (x) 36.29 26.90 24.76 22.85 DPS (S$) 0.036 0.036 0.042 0.046 0.050 Andrea CHOONG Dividend Yield 2.88% 2.88% 3.35% 3.64% 3.94% T (65) 6210 8672 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.51 9.03 7.84 7.34 6.85 P/FCFE (x) 11.69 13.95 12.37 11.00 E [email protected] Net Gearing (120%) (92%) (88%) (85%) (83%) Darren ONG P/BV (x) 16.12 5.88 5.75 5.62 5.49 T (65) 6210 8671 ROE 23.7% 21.6% 23.0% 24.3% E [email protected] % Change In Core EPS Estimates CGS-CIMB/Consensus EPS (x) SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Financial Services - Others │ Singapore Credit Bureau Asia Ltd │ March 16, 2021 INVESTMENT THESIS Defensive business model through peaks and troughs of economic cycles We view CBA’s business model as resilient across the different phases of the economic cycle – through periods of credit expansion and recessionary troughs. CBA’s operations depend greatly on the demand for credit information reports required by both financial institutions (FI) and non-financial institutions (non-FI) in assessing counterparty credit risk (whether for the extension of loans and credit lines, supply chain management, or for credit quality assessments), whereby GDP growth rates can be indicative of revenue growth in rising cycles. Counterintuitively, the demand for credit information remains inelastic through economic downtrends given the value of continuously assessing creditors’ abilities to service debt obligations. Apart from one-off reports for loan applications, pre-employment checks and pre-screening of business partners, CBA offers customised monitoring services for higher-risk exposures, which provide sustained revenue streams despite the limited credit growth in the system – as exhibited in FY20 through the Covid-19 pandemic. Earnings momentum held steady through the height of global border closures; revenues rose 7% yoy to S$43.4m in FY20. This was driven by elevated demand for risk management reviews globally, which offset the lower volume of new loan applications. Covid-19 disruptions had necessitated government intervention globally and these measures included wage support schemes, loan and insurance moratoriums as well as loan restructuring directives – all of which would expire over the coming year. In our view, CBA is well-placed to be a defensive play in both a prolonged business downturn and the eventual economic recovery given the essential nature of credit and risk information. We forecast revenue growth of c.8-11% over FY21-23F (FY17-20: c.4-9%) as compounded by the addition of new bureau members (4 digital bank licences awarded in Dec 20, onboarding of members in Myanmar), strong economic recovery and the rising emphasis on CRIS. Strong cash generation; asset-light operating model CBA has a strong balance sheet, maintaining its net cash position. Its capex needs are largely confined to the upgrading of IT, digital, compliance, and cybersecurity infrastructure, given the asset-light nature of its operations. This includes costs to upgrade its computer software every 3-5 years (we expect c.S$4m in FY21F, normalising to c.S$1.5m thereafter). We expect CBA’s net cash position to continue to strengthen in FY20-22F, given its strong free cash flow generation, and believe that this will be more than sufficient to cover its future development capex. CBA recorded operating cashflow of S$20.6m in FY20; we expect this to rise towards S$28.8m in FY23F on the back of improving business momentum. Market leader in Singapore; first-mover and sole credit bureau in Cambodia and Myanmar In Singapore, MAS requires financial institutions (FIs) to make enquiries with a credit reporting bureau prior to the commencement of lending operations. CBS’s long-operating track record allows for the breadth of credit history required for systemic default analysis across business cycles. It is the leading credit bureau in Singapore with a 99.9% market share of the FI Data Business (by revenue) in 2019. We estimate that CBS’s closest FI Data Business competitor, Experian (NR, Closing price: GBP2,431), has limited scope in organically garnering significant market share, given its limited membership base of four banks 2 Financial Services - Others │ Singapore Credit Bureau Asia Ltd │ March 16, 2021 currently, giving rise to significant switching costs. MAS’s requirements for FIs in Singapore to conduct pre-employment credit health screenings to ensure financial soundness in its staff force, as well as the Casino Regulatory Authority’s similar prerogative to conduct these checks in Singapore, further strengthens CBS’s stronghold in the market. In the Non-FI Data Business, Frost & Sullivan (F&S) reported that, for 2018, Dun & Bradstreet (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (D&B Singapore) — CBA’s JV with Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) — held 40% of the market share (by revenue) of the Non-FI Data Business, a close second behind Experian’s 57%. Figure 1 FI Data Business market share in 2019 (by revenue) Figure 2: Non-FI Data Business market share in 2019 (by revenue) Others, 0.1% Others, 3% D&B Singapore, 40% CBS, 99.9% Experian, 57% SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, FROST & SULLIVAN SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, FROST & SULLIVAN Credit Bureau (Cambodia) Co., Ltd (CBC), an indirect JV (CBA holds a c.49% stake in Equifax Cambodia Holdings Pte.
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