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Singapore's Digital Transformation SECTOR BRIEFING number DBS Asian Insights DBS Group60 Research • May 2018 Singapore’s Digital Transformation 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 02 Singapore’s Digital Transformation Sachin MITTAL Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Sue Lin LIM Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Andy SIM Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Paul YONG Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Derek TAN Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Alfie YEO Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Lee Keng LING Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Suvro SARKAR Equity Analyst DBS Group Research [email protected] Produced by: Rui Wen LIM Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research Equity Analyst DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research [email protected] @dbsinsights [email protected] Glenn NG Equity Analyst Goh Chien Yen Editor-in-Chief DBS Group Research Jean Chua Managing Editor [email protected] Martin Tacchi Art Director 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 03 04 Digital Transformation in Singapore – Cherry-picking Proactive Leaders and Fast Followers 09 Digital Contribution to GDP Financial Services Aviation Telecoms Retail Transportation Logistics 40 Singapore Smart Nation Strategic Government Projects Other Ongoing Smart Nation Projects 55 Appendix DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 04 Digital Transformation in Singapore – Cherry-picking Proactive Leaders and Fast Followers Digital transformation initiatives in Singapore are all about embracing technology-driven disruption to stay ahead, while enabling nimble players to compete in the new arena. The aim is to create an industry-wide level playing field to better serve consumers in the long term. Singapore’s Digital Transformation – Challengers versus Incumbents High Slow Movers Fast Followers Level playing field between Incumbants Land Transport and Challengers Telecommunications Logistics Playing field in favour of Challengers Aviation Retail Financial Services Share of Digital Challengers Reactive Players Pro-active Leaders Low Low Incumbents’ adaptiveness of the digital model High Source: DBS Group Research DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 05 We have looked at the market share secured by the digital challengers in Singapore so far and the incumbents’ adaptiveness of the digital model to understand the playing field. We define the playing field as a function of technological capabilities and regulations, and it may favour either challengers or incumbents, depending on the swing of these two factors. Financial Services Singapore is home to around 210 FinTech firms, which raked in over US$100m in funding over the first three quarters of 2017.1 Wealth management is the most concentrated segment with over 41 companies, followed by 32 in payments and 23 in blockchain/cryptocurrency. However, we have not seen much market share gained by these fintech firms in Singapore so far and we see a levelling of the playing field with regulatory and technological changes, which should encourage digitisation of banks in Singapore. 2018 FinTech – FinTech companies Incumbent banks – Banks can offer app-based financial launching application and non-financial products programming interfaces (APIs) and leverage customer data for third parties to transform from various businesses. into a platform, leveraging their customer base to embed banking services into e-commerce transactions, using public cloud services. 2015 Regulations and technological changes to level the playing field – Banks are allowed to engage in permissible non-banking businesses, use public cloud services to cut costs and scale up, launch of unified standard for mobile payment, QR code and point of sale terminals. Source: DBS Group Research DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 6 Retail Qoo10 and Lazada are e-commerce leaders in Singapore; Amazon entered the market in 2017.However, e-commerce accounted for around 3.9% of retail sales in Singapore in Feb 20182, still lower than in many developed countries. Around 55% of e-commerce transactions in Singapore are cross-border3, it can be a challenge for incumbent retailers to carry a large range of products for the small Singapore market, unless they have scale in ASEAN. 2018 E-commerce’s popularity Incumbent retail players – on the rise – Qoo10 and Relatively slow to embrace Lazada have entered the an omni-channel presence, retail spheres, from consumer possibly due to the lack of electronics and fashion to scale and fear of cannibalising home supplies and groceries. offline profits. Government initiatives aim to level the playing field – The Retail Industry Digital Plan and 99%SME are some of the initiatives to help retailers go online. Budget 2018 proposes the introduction of goods and services tax (GST) on imported e-commerce services from 2020 onwards. Source: DBS Group Research Land Transportation Almost half of point-to-point trips in the country are now served by ride-hailing players Grab and Uber*. The Land Transport Authority (LTA) made it mandatory for drivers of these ride- hailing companies to obtain a vocational license in 2017 for consumer safety but consumers were already hooked on to Grab and Uber by then. *Uber has entered into an agreement to sell its Southeast Asia operations, inclusive of Singapore, to Grab. The deal is currently under the review of the Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS). 2018 Ride-hailing apps with regional Incumbent taxi companies – scale – App-based ride-hailing Traditional taxi companies, companies have managed to such as ComfortDelGro, win a significant market share. have moved into app-based services to complement their traditional service offering. By the time regulator stepped in, new entrants were already successful– LTA stepped in in 2017, making vocational licenses mandatory for app-based drivers, and is mulling over an operating license for ride-hailing companies. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 7 Aviation Budget airlines such as AirAsia have altered distribution with a low-cost direct online channel to cross-sell ancillary services. The Air Transport Industry Transformation Map launched by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) in 2017 aims to achieve real value-added growth of 16% from 2015 to 2020 and boost productivity by 3-4% per annum. Singapore Airlines launched a three-year transformation programme in 2017, which, among other things, will focus on a personalised end-to-end travel experience and productivity improvement through the deployment of autonomous systems to move passengers, baggage and cargo. 2018 Online distribution advantage Incumbent airlines – – Low cost carriers enjoy Adopting app-based advantage of lowest-cost service to complement direct online channel (around traditional service, focusing 100% of sales) and are also on personalised end-to-end able to cross-sell more services. experience and productivity improvement. 2015 Government and technology changes are levelling the playing field – In 2017, the Singapore government unveiled its plan to boost sector productivity by 3-4% per annum over 2015 to 2010, accelerating digitisation efforts in the sector. Investments in data analytics and the internet of things (IoT) to differentiate service offering and reduce operational costs. Source: DBS Group Research Telecommunications Competition has intensified with three new mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) - Circles.Life, MyRepublic and Zero Mobile, and the expected launch by TPG in late-2018. The fourth mobile operator, TPG, would also benefit from jumping directly into the 4G network, as evident in its network rollout capex of only S$200-300m. We expect TPG to secure around 7% revenue share of Singapore’s mobile market by 2022. The incumbents are investing in initiatives such as Internet of Things (IoT), cyber-security and digital advertising etc. to secure new revenue streams which will pay off gradually over next 3-4 years. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 60 8 New entrants not burdened by legacy revenues and net- works – New entrants are not 2018 exposed to declining legacy revenue streams and are able to rollout network atFrom much telcos lower to smart New entrants not burdened by communication providers legacy revenues and networks capex. – Existing telcos are – New entrants are not repositioning as smart exposed to declining legacy communication providers revenue streams and are able with investments in cloud to rollout network at much technology, cyber-security, lower capex. IoT, etc Regulator awarded a fourth mobile operator license in 2016 – The regulator’s granting of the fourth mobile operator license to TPG has ramped up competition for the incumbents. Logistics The surge in online sales, consumer demand for multiple channel options to collect online purchases, and the entry of logistics start-ups such as Ninja Van and aCommerce has challenged incumbents like SingPost to invest in automated last mile delivery solutions and follow an omni- channel approach for logistics services. SingPost had around 21% share of the last mile parcel delivery market in Singapore in 2017 and intends to raise its share going forward. 2018 Start-ups exploiting Incumbent logistics players opportunities in last-mile have built regional scale – delivery – New entrant SingPost, has invested in (a) Ninja Van uses proprietary automated parcel sorting algorithms to plan its routes machines for rising volumes, and manage its vehicle fleet. (b) a network of lockers for UrbanFox, another start-up, pickups in Singapore,
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