REALinsights SECOND QUARTER 2021 // OFFICE MARKET presented by the Hunneman Research Department 303 Congress Street, Boston, MA 02210 617.457.3400 www.hunnemanre.com REALinsights // GREATER BOSTON OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Wind is picking back up in the office in terms of percentage of population, just behind Vermont. As a result, the state of emergency was able to be lifted on June 15th, the economy could fully open and market and we are no longer in the employers were enabled to focus on a return-to-work policy that is less hindered by government policy. doldrums of COVID. Looking ahead, the office market is expected to continue its rebound in the near- term. However, some of the longer-term effects of COVID have yet to be realized. Halfway into 2021, the Greater Boston office market has hit a turning point. Companies with leases expiring over the next few years will need to answer Leasing activity is the highest it has been in over a year; employees are starting to two questions; first, does the amount of available square footage align with its come back to the office and the Commonwealth is emerging from the pandemic workplace strategy? Second, when the term of the current space expires, how much quickly and safely. With a strong performance from Cambridge and the suburbs, space will be needed? While a variety of surveys have offered some insight as to market fundamentals have significantly improved with only 110,000 square feet what companies might do, the majority of companies leasing office space have not in negative absorption registering in the second quarter. Comparatively, this is had to face both of those decisions due to the longer-term leases signed prior to a vast improvement from the last twelve months where over one million square the pandemic. If these companies, especially ones with major footprints, decide to feet of negative absorption occurred quarter-over-quarter. contract in square footage over the next few years, this could result in a negative effect on the market. Luckily, Greater Boston is in a position where economic Compared to other major markets across the country, Boston’s inventory momentum is higher than most markets around the globe, which is expected to has seen the largest percentage of leasing activity and the overall vacancy keep rental rates in check while satisfying the current building boom. rate has stayed well below the national average of 16%. Both of these factors can be attributed to Greater Boston’s exploding life science sector, assisting the office market on two fronts. First, over 6.2 million square feet of office is slated, or already has been, converted to lab over the last year, which has Looking ahead, the office put downward pressure on office vacancy. Second, a wide variety of business services that support the growing life science industry typically have office market is expected to continue needs. Additionally, the Commonwealth’s rapid vaccination rate has also “ its rebound in the near-term. contributed to Boston emerging from the pandemic at a faster pace. As of quarter-end, Massachusetts is the second most vaccinated state in the nation ” Greater Boston Market Fundamentals Numbers are represented in the thousands 16% 2,000 14% 1,500 TOTAL VACANCY RATE 13.3% 12% 1,000 10% 500 Q1 NET ABSORPTION -110 SF 8% 0 6% -500 4% -1,000 ASKING RENT Average for Boston, Cambridge and Suburbs $36.50/SF 2% -1,500 0% -2,000 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,789 SF 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 *arrows denote change from last quarter’s performance 2 | METRO BOSTON OFFICE | Q2 2021 REALinsights // OFFICE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS • Total vacancy increased from 1.6% to 12% which was primarily driven by new mid-size vacancy in the Financial District spread evenly across Class A and B buildings. • Overall asking rents decreased a dollar per $65-$80 square foot on average due to the Class B market. (Class A asking rents) However, upward pressure is being placed on the Class A market with some landlords pushing rates, $50-$60 thanks to a flight-to-quality trend unfolding. (Class B Asking Rents) BOSTON • Construction decreased slightly with the delivery of 201 Brookline in the Fenway submarket. Just over 50% of office and lab under construction is preleased. • Leasing activity increased slightly compared to last quarter with companies continuing to capitalize on sublease options. • Total vacancy decreased from 7.6% to 6.9% thanks to 241,000 square feet of positive absorption. • Overall asking rents increased from last quarter $75-$90 (Class A asking rents) with some of the highest-Class A asking rents in the $55-$65 market being quoted out of East Cambridge. (Class B Asking Rents) • Construction levels decreased slightly with the delivery of 425,000 square feet at 325 Main Street in Kendall Square. CAMBRIDGE • Leasing activity was nominal this quarter due to a lack of available existing space and a construction pipeline that is fully preleased. • Total vacancy increased slightly from 14.3% to 14.7% despite a slight amount of positive absorption due to several buildings delivering with a high amount of vacancy. $30-$45 • Overall asking rents remained flat with some (Class A asking rents) submarkets along route 128 seeing a small increase $20-$30 and most along 495 seeing a small decrease. (Class B Asking Rents) • Construction levels increased with notable projects kicking off such as SUBURBS 10 Prospect Street in Somerville and 1050 Waltham Street in Lexington. Both have a major lab component. • Leasing activity was up significantly due to a number of larger deals such as BJ’s Wholesale at 350 Campus Drive in Waltham and IBM at CrossPoint in Lowell. 3 | METRO BOSTON OFFICE | Q2 2021 REALinsights // SUPPLY TRENDS GREATER BOSTON ENTERS ITS THIRD BUILDING BOOM AFTER THE POST-WWII ERA The Tower Era: In the late 1970s, Greater Boston hit a turning point of population growth after experiencing 30 consecutive years of population decline. As the metro started to gain more residence thanks to the emergence of the suburbs, the MBTA concluded a 20-year buying spree where several train lines were bought and combined to form what we know as the commuter rail today. The buying spree incentivized employers to be in the city because of opportunity to fully tap Greater Boston’s labor pool. As a result, some of Boston’s largest towers were built over the next decade such as 200 Clarendon, One Financial Center and One Post Office Square, along with 53, 60, and 75 State Street. The Dot-Com Era: In the late 1990s, substantial amounts of office construction outside of Boston began along the Route 128 Belt and Cambridge. Technology companies grew at an exponential pace and developers with the foresight to get ahead of this demand focused on building near key transportation arteries within striking distances of Boston and Cambridge, where much of the educated labor was graduating from. At the turn of the century, the Dot-Com Bubble burst, leading to a sharp decline in construction due to a large injection of either sublease space or speculative development that were unleased. During this time, some popular suburb office parks were initiated or completed, such as the Waltham Woods Corporate Center to the west, Crown Colony in Quincy to the south, and Northwest Park in Burlington to the North. The Roaring 20s: We are now entering our third office building boom since the Post-World War II era (aka the Golden Age, 1950s-1970s). However, towers are not getting taller and with the exception of a few urban pockets, there are no new market frontiers. This boom is based on the make-up of office and the importance lab space has played in constructing new office buildings. With a white-hot life science sector, office buildings that provide a lab component are taking less risk, in that they are able to cater to biotech companies along with any other occupier in need of office space. This has resulted in a significant amount of building over the last decade with the brunt of projects expected to be completed over the next five years. Existing Under Construction Second Half 2021 Construction Start 16,000,000 SF THE “TOWER” ERA DOT-COM BUBBLE THE NEW ROARING 20’S Towers go higher The Emergence of the Suburbs Life-Science Discovery Explodes 14,000,000 SF 12,000,000 SF 10,000,000 SF 8,000,000 SF 6,000,000 SF 4,000,000 SF 2,000,000 SF 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 OFFICE TO LAB CONVERSIONS KEEP Route 125 West 1,918 SF VACANCY IN CHECK Fenway 1,534 SF • It is hard to go a week in the Greater Boston market without a developer filing Seaport 1,353 SF with any given municipality to convert part, if not all, of their buildings to a South Boston 467 SF lab use. This has helped and will continue to help an office market that has not faired well during the pandemic. Over the last year, over 6.2 million square Financial District 294 SF feet of office space, either existing or in the development process, has pivoted West Cambridge 280 SF to include a lab component. This has helped the office market by taking away what could have been potential office vacancies and has led to less office East Cambridge 226 SF supply being built than previously planned. Route 128 Northwest 101 SF • Leading the charge, Route 128 West, the Fenway area, and Boston’s Seaport Inner Suburbs 84 SF have become hotspots for lab conversions due to their close proximity to Cambridge and ample amount of existing office or planned office to convert.