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Pure and Applied Geophysics Pure and Applied Geophysics The seismotectonics of the Po Plain (northern Italy): tectonic diversity in a blind faulting domain --Manuscript Draft-- Manuscript Number: PAAG-D-14-00070R1 Full Title: The seismotectonics of the Po Plain (northern Italy): tectonic diversity in a blind faulting domain Article Type: Report-Top.Vol. Crustal Fault Zones Keywords: Blind faulting; seismogenic source; active tectonics; seismic hazard; inherited faults; Po Plain. Corresponding Author: Paola Vannoli, Ph.D. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Roma, ITALY Corresponding Author Secondary Information: Corresponding Author's Institution: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Corresponding Author's Secondary Institution: First Author: Paola Vannoli, Ph.D. First Author Secondary Information: Order of Authors: Paola Vannoli, Ph.D. Pierfrancesco Burrato, M.D. Gianluca Valensise, Ph.D. Order of Authors Secondary Information: Abstract: We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is in fact rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because a) the region is geologically very diverse, and b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments, and hence can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end we subdivided them into four main homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment. Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: Vannoli_Resubmitted_23052014.docx The seismotectonics of the Po Plain (northern Italy): 1 2 3 tectonic diversity in a blind faulting domain 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Abbreviated title: “The seismotectonics of the Po Plain” 11 12 13 14 15 Paola Vannoli, Pierfrancesco Burrato and Gianluca Valensise 16 17 18 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Seismology and Tectonophysics Unit 19 20 Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy. 21 22 23 24 25 Corresponding Author: 26 27 28 Paola Vannoli 29 30 [email protected] 31 32 33 fax number: +39-06-51860507 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 1 64 65 1 Keywords: Blind faulting, seismogenic source, active tectonics, seismic hazard, inherited 2 3 4 faults, Po Plain. 5 6 7 8 9 Abstract 10 11 12 13 14 15 We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain 16 17 (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is in fact rather active as it 18 19 comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern 20 21 22 Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, 23 24 industrial activities and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because a) the region 25 26 27 is geologically very diverse, and b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a 28 29 thick blanket of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments, and hence can be investigated only 30 31 32 indirectly. 33 34 35 Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain 36 37 requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and 38 39 40 location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end we subdivided them into 41 42 four main homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for 43 44 45 coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by 46 47 each individual fault group. 48 49 50 The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and 51 52 53 Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern 54 55 Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest 56 57 58 known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the 59 60 Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by 61 62 63 2 64 65 a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the 1 2 Apennines thrusts. 3 4 5 6 The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of 7 8 Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and 9 10 maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard 11 12 13 assessment. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 3 64 65 1 2 1. Introduction 3 4 5 6 7 The Po Plain is one of Italy’s major geographical features, extending for over 400 km in a 8 9 10 roughly east-west direction from the Alps to the Adriatic Sea and corresponding to the 11 12 drainage basin of the Po River, the country’s longest and most important watercourse. 13 14 15 Geologically the Po Plain and part of the current Adriatic Sea comprise the foreland of two 16 17 opposing verging fold-and-thrust belts: the Southern Alps to the north, and the Northern 18 19 20 Apennines to the south. Although it is underlain by actively growing orogens in the context of 21 22 ongoing convergence, the Po Plain is an almost perfectly flat area that may appear tectonically 23 24 25 quiet, bounded by two mountain ranges. The morphological borders of the Po Plain 26 27 correspond with the contact between the Quaternary alluvium cropping out in the plain and 28 29 the pre-Quaternary rocks exposed along the two mountain fronts. 30 31 32 Despite the appearances, however, the Po Plain is in itself quite active. Several 33 34 earthquakes hit the plain and both mountain fronts through history (ISIDE WORKING GROUP, 35 36 37 2010; ROVIDA et al., 2011), testifying that the geodynamic processes which led to the 38 39 convergence between the two orogens are still active. Due to the occurrence of many 40 41 42 historical centers combined with an extraordinary concentration of critical facilities and the 43 44 associated lifelines, the Po Plain certainly represents a major concern for local administrations 45 46 and civil defence authorities. Despite these circumstances, and probably due to the scattered 47 48 49 nature of local seismicity, much of the Po Plain has entered the Italian seismic code only 50 51 recently, in 2004, and the new provisions have become mandatory even more recently, in 52 53 54 2010. For these reasons even earthquakes in the magnitude range 5 to 6 can be catastrophic, 55 56 as tragically demonstrated by the 2012 Emilia sequence (ML 5.9; ISIDE WORKING GROUP, 57 58 59 2010), which caused 26 casualties and severe damage to monumental and industrial buildings. 60 61 62 63 4 64 65 The Italian earthquake record is normally considered complete for M 6+ earthquakes 1 2 only for the past ca. 700 years (STUCCHI et al., 2004), but major known earthquakes probably 3 4 5 recur every 1,000-2,000 years (VALENSISE and PANTOSTI, 2001a; GALLI et al., 2008). 6 7 Consequently, faults that released their most recent large earthquake before 700 years ago 8 9 10 may not appear in the historical record. Identifying all potential seismogenic faults and 11 12 estimating their potential is fundamental for characterizing input for probabilistic seismic 13 14 hazard assessment (PSHA); but given the short length of the historical record and the poor 15 16 17 surface expression of potential seismogenic sources, we may be surprised by future damaging 18 19 earthquakes (MULARGIA, 2013), a fact that was tragically illustrated by the 2012 Emilia 20 21 22 sequence. The 20 and 29 May earthquakes occurred in an area for which no historical 23 24 seismicity was reported but where seismogenic sources had been identified through tectonic 25 26 27 geomorphology and seismic profiles (DISS 2.0, VALENSISE and PANTOSTI, 2001b; CIUCCI et 28 29 al., 2002). Resorting to the geological record is hence mandatory for outlining all seismogenic 30 31 sources of a problematic area such as the Po Plain and assessing its potential effectively (e.g.
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