The LUMUN Spirit was first introduced as a concept at LUMUN XV. It sought to reintroduce a recognition of the most essential components of MUN culture; imparting a sense of responsibility accepting that the onus is on us to be the forerunners of change. The fundamental premise of a Model UN is to develop our understanding of the issues and conflicts in the world as a collective, and to connect individuals with vastly differing life experiences with each other. The pursuit of quantitative success and accolades has fermented a tradition of MUN being a space mired in hostility and distrust. The LUMUN Spirit is our continuing effort to inculcate empathy, compassion, understanding and diplomacy within this competitive activity.
As we proceed on our journey of revamping Model UN, the LUMUN Spirit is an idea that we aspire to incorporate in the entire LUMUN experience: from the Host Team, to an expectation that we will have from the delegates as well. It is not an abstract concept – it is a vision that should embody the behavior of every delegate in every committee. Inside the committee or out; the enthusiasm to meet other people, present arguments in a true ambassadorial manner and the idea to enjoy LUMUN should never be forgotten. In this very essence we will be able to represent what it means to simulate a true world model; an actual representation of the United Nations. We continue to strive and ensure that the outlook of LUMUN XVII is to not be an average Model UN conference anymore.
And so, leadership and prowess within a committee is not characterized by exerting one’s overbearing presence on others or by alienating and excluding others from discussion. They manifest in a delegate’s ability to engage with others, help them play their part in the committee, and to facilitate the committee as a whole to engage in a fruitful and informative debate. This includes actions as simple as maintaining a moderate temperament, inviting others’ input and operating with honesty and respect. The LUMUN Society invites you to understand what it means to be an ambassador of a country and represent its foreign policy means to employ collaboration alongside reasoned argumentation to press forward with that actor’s policy agenda.
In order to fully understand how to imbibe the LUMUN Spirit within your actions in the committee, we would recommend this instructional video, uploaded to the society’s’ YouTube channel. It will assist you significantly in carrying the spirit of true Model UN diplomacy during and beyond LUMUN.
Dear delegates,
My name is Imaad Hasan Jafri and I will be serving as the Secretary-General of this 17th edition of the LUMS Model UN conference (LUMUN). It gives me immense pleasure to welcome you all to what shall be the largest and most prestigious online Model UN conference in South Asia.
I am loath to refer to these times we are now experiencing as unprecedented, given the abundant usage of that term. However, any competitive activity that seeks to define itself around global affairs must adapt to prevailing circumstances and carve out a space for itself to contribute to any and all relevant discourse. To adapt means to weather the challenges disrupting our collective being and to continue our journeys of growth, learning and connection, as best as we can. Pursuing the same goals and objectives we held dear before the advent of this uncertainty can be a testament to our fortitude.
The theme for this year, ‘Foster Resilience for a World Uncharted’, encapsulates this attitude. Not only does LUMUN seek to surpass expectations given the online format, but we hope to include discussions and debate that can inform our approach to a world that is suffering from and will eventually emerge from this challenging period. At LUMUN, our task is to develop the skills and gain the intellectual understanding required to better explain our world. A delegate who seeks to learn from LUMUN
emerges with a greater penchant for sifting through the barrage of misinformation and hollow rhetoric that plagues political discourse today.
Any committee at any MUN has the responsibility to facilitate its delegates in exploring their understanding of the world and of how to work with others in the face of adversity. The challenges we face today require nuanced conceptions of the world around us. The task that lies ahead of you entails comprehending the struggles and conflicts of today's world and to offer solutions that are economically and politically feasible. In the pursuit of this, I believe delegates must engage fully in presenting argumentation that conforms to logic and reality. Delegates must ensure that their interaction with others in the committee is done with amicability and integrity. Allow yourselves to delve into minor details and elaborate policy all the while maintaining your country’s principal and practical viewpoints.
As for myself, I am a Political Science major at LUMS, now in my final year. Speaking in public has become second nature to me. I have seen success at several local MUNs and have obtained an Outstanding Diplomacy award at Model UN Turkey 2019. I have also participated extensively in several parliamentary debate tournaments at the university level, including representing LUMS at the United Asians Debating Championship 2019 and 2020. My love for public speaking is matched only by my love for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, P.G. Wodehouse and Lorde.
I look forward immensely to welcoming you virtually to LUMUN XVII this winter! Indeed, to cite my newest entertainment media obsession, this is the Way.
Imaad Hasan Jafri Secretary-General LUMUN 2020-21
Dear Delegates,
To say that the world is going through tough and unprecedent times will be an understatement. Over the last year, our country, and the world at large, has experienced radical changes in nearly every sphere of society – whether that may be with regards to social interactions, the economy and how we conceptualize development, or international diplomacy – and has given rise to questions the leaders of tomorrow must find answers to. In such a time, the concept of debate and discourse is a novel one. Especially those of us who are privileged enough to raise our voices, we must continuously learn and unlearn and develop our worldview through nuanced discussions regarding the most imminent issues that plague our world.
At LUMUN 17, we aim to provide you a platform to do exactly that. As a society, we pride ourselves upon being more than just Model UN, and as a Conference, it is no different. LUMUN is more than the award you win or do not win – it’s an opportunity to make friends from all across Pakistan and the world, to debate on important issues in front of, and with, incredibly talented and intelligent individuals, and most importantly, an opportunity to learn like none other. Be kind, engage and empathize, and be open to learn, and I promise that the takeaways from this Conference will be much more significant than the award.
Lastly, a bit about me: my name is Shahmir Ahmad and I will be serving as an Under Secretary-General at LUMUN 17. I am a sophomore student at LUMS, intending to major in Economics. I am a public speaking enthusiast through and through, and the time I do not spend at Model UN or debate competitions is spent watching cricket or crippling under academic workload. Most importantly, I am incredibly excited to welcome you all this winter. You can always reach out to me whenever you need any assistance whatsoever.
Best, Shahmir Ahmad USG LUMUN 17
Hello everyone!
My official name is Syed Shaheryar Hussain (but you can call me Sherry as most of my friends do). I am a junior at LUMS, majoring in Economics, and am also a Public-Policy enthusiast. My journey with LUMUN dates back to 2016 when I first attended the conference as a delegate (and didn’t quite fare off that well, in all honesty).
What a story it could have been, with life coming around full circle and me sitting on the other side of the same room I was a delegate in! Well, due to unfortunate events in China, there is no room this time around. In this virtual setting, I owe you all even more to ensure that your LUMUN experience is not compromised.
A bit about myself: I am an aspiring philanthropist and actively engage myself in endeavors of community service. I also love Coldplay, Strings, and have recently discovered a gem in the form of Kaavish. When I am not busy rooting for Real Madrid or Rafael Nadal, I can be found reading philosophy, learning Spanish, or playing Pokemon. In terms of my MUN-ing capabilities, I have had the honor of winning the Best Delegate Awards at MUNTR 2019 and MUNTR 2020.
If you are coming to the Prime Minister’s Crisis Cell: firstly ‘ghabrana nahi hai’; secondly, you are here to learn. Wanting to win is alright; this is how humans are designed to function. However, suppose your only motivation is to win and not understand the intricacies involved in resolving public policy. In that case, my very educated guess is that neither will you win nor will you look back at this conference with memories that you cherish.
Really excited to welcome you all to LUMUN XVII. See you soon!
Syed Shaheryar Hussain, Committee Director LUMUN XVII
Esteemed Member of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf,
Over the years, you have proven to be one of our party’s most competent and trusted members. I recognize your services towards the country and am incredibly grateful I have you by my side. It is because of your unwavering support towards the causes that most affect us, as well as my trust in your intellectual capabilities, that you have been invited to partake in this Crisis Cell. This is a secret committee, constituting of people I have the most faith in.
The times we are in are precarious, to say the least. We have the impending threat of COVID-19, which has exasperated the deep-lying problems of the country. These include several other political, economic, environmental, and health-related issues. For your aid, I will also send an additional classified dossier containing details about all these aforementioned problems, as well as the institutional infrastructure we currently have in place to resolve these problems. Remember, these are highly classified documents. The nature of this Cell is strictly confidential. You are being called upon to help me devise relevant policy prescriptions in these challenging times. Not only do I expect you to participate enthusiastically, but I also expect you to maintain a level of confidentiality. Your failure to do so will leave us highly vulnerable in front of the media and give more fuel to the fire our opposition does not hesitate to create.
Without wasting any time, I have set-up a meeting at my house in Bani Gala in the second week of May. I am hoping to see you soon.
Yours Sincerely,
Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi Honorable Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
Addendum: Dossier Issues Engulfing the State of Pakistan
Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi
Preface
The year 2020 has been an unusual one, with one crisis following the other. Pakistan has dealt with many crises of utmost urgency until the present, May 2020. This committee has gathered to solve
Pakistan's problems on all fronts that include but are not limited to the health, environment, economic, and political sphere.
So much has piled up, and now is the time to assess, reassess, and create policies to tackle the never-ending crises endured by Pakistan, be it a long term issue or a short term glitch.
The recent coronavirus pandemic has drastically hit the Pakistani health sector. The sphere of public health was already in a weak state with inadequate working conditions, poor treatment of nurses and doctors, and insufficient resources, and now these problems have been intensified with the outbreak that is on the rise in the country.
Moreover, the issue of the environment is largely ignored in Pakistan despite its critical nature.
Climate change has become a harsh reality of our times, but unfortunately, many Pakistanis are not taking it seriously. On top of that, the situation is worsened by the existing environmental degradation done in Pakistan, coupled with inefficient leadership in the past. However, there have been some successful policies and projects that aimed to fight existing issues. Still, acute aspects such as the water crises, locust attack, and pollution, in addition to the seriousness of climate change, pose a threat to Pakistan that needs to be addressed.
Furthermore, it is not a hidden fact that Pakistan has been struggling financially for a long time without coming to a pragmatic or effective solution. This situation has been made worse by the
previously mentioned matters – the collapsing health sector and the environmental threat -- that call for intensive national investment. However, with the existing situation of declining Balance of Payments, an increase in the budget deficit, never-ending national debt, and skyrocketing inflation rates, the situation appears to be on the brink of a breakdown. There have been some attempts to solve the issues at hand, such as the Ehsaas Program, but the situation today calls for restructuring.
The political situation, too, is not doing well, externally, and internally. Pakistan’s diplomatic ties with the rest of the world have become extremely complex with the advent of the CPEC and other commitments. When it allies itself with one State, many others start to see it as an enemy, and hence, there is a need to balance the balance in foreign policy required to ensure that it retains its necessary and affable ties with the rest of the world. Further, the country's political unrest is on the rise as well with the mobilization of PTM. On top of that, Pakistan’s international image and national stability are being immensely threatened by the rise in corruption cases that need to be dealt with to survive the integrity of the Pakistani systems and justice. Hence, keeping all these issues in mind, these imbalances call for a policy-based solution that will resolve these issues before all hope is gone.
National Health
Current National Health Infrastructure of Pakistan and its Capabilities to Deal with
Outbreaks and Diseases:
After the 18th amendmenti, public healthcare comes under the jurisdiction of the provincial governments. Pakistan’s public healthcare system established by the government is a multi-tier system. Providing free service delivery to all citizens, these hospitals are interlinked with each other, some providing necessary health facilities and others offering sophisticated services.
Pakistan's public healthcare is bifurcated into primary and secondary health systemsii.
Primary Health System:
The primary health system provides basic facilities which are located in each town. It is divided into the following units:
a) Basic Health Unit: There are 5,002 BHUs spread across the country. They are the first places to seek medical attention, staffed by a small proportion of personnel, and provide primary health facilities. A doctor or a medical officer (MO) assumes the charge of an administrative role, subordinated by dispensers, lady health visitors, and occasionally technicians. It is a core hospital of a union whose health workers are responsible for vaccinating children of a region to curb different endemic diseases and also providing basic healthcare facilities.
b) Rural Health Centre: RHCs are well-equipped, providing better facilities than BHUs.They are
638 in number, which are composed of units, and each unit is staffed by doctors who are supported by nurses, lady health visitors, and health technicians. RHUs usually provide treatment of common diseases, ANC, and basic delivery care. They also manage minor surgeries and emergencies.
Secondary Health System:
The secondary health system consists of the following hospitals:
a) Tehsil and District Headquarter Hospitals: There are 680 THQ and DHQ hospitals across the country. They are headed by medical superintendents or senior doctors who are helped by medical officers, nurses, and medical technicians. They offer a wide array of well-advanced facilities mostly located in tehsils and districts’ headquarters. Specialized medical care, basic abdominal operations, including cesarean section, and comprehensive emergency obstetric care, should be provided by DHQ and THQ hospitals.
b) Teaching hospital: Teaching hospitals are located in urban areas exclusively in the division's headquarters. They provide a range of sophisticated medical services that aren’t available in the rest of the hospitals. Most complex diseases and surgery services are offered here; therefore, severe patients are directed from HQ and DHQ hospitals to teaching hospitals. Future doctors, nurses, and technicians are trained who serve at different hospitals of primary and secondary health systems.
Hierarchy of health delivery systems in Pakistan:
Pakistan’s progress on various diseases:
Pakistan has confronted a myriad of diseases since its inception. Despite having dwindling resources, Pakistan effectively responded to many challenges brought by life-threatening diseases.
Dengue:
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by any one of the four serotypes (DEN1, DEN2,
DEN3, DEN4)iii. Fever, pain in different parts of the body, nausea, and vomiting are found in a mild case contracted by the dengue virus. The disease may turn into life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever when timely treatment is not provided. Since its emergence, the dengue virus has killed and contracted millions of people around the world in tropical and subtropical areas, particularly in developing countries.
Pakistan has confronted many outbreaks of dengue disease since its first outbreak observed in
1994. Since 2006, Pakistan has faced the worst dengue outbreaks affecting thousands of people and killing hundreds of them. Dengue is endemic in the post-monsoon season because of the favorable hot and humid weather coupled with inadequate hygiene and sanitation, the mutated serotype of the virus, and unplanned and overcrowded urbanizationiv.
Last year and in 2017, Pakistan were worst hit by the dengue outbreakv. The provincial Govts immediately responded to tackle the disease by using a comprehensive plan. The plan covers the establishment of Emergency Control Cells (ECC) across the country in teaching and tertiary hospitals mandated by primary health units. An active surveillance system is usually adopted to track and find the cases and hotspots. To contain the vector, vehicles with mounted fogging machines carry out fogging in areas having a significant number of cases. Before the monsoon season, thousands of dengue awareness flyers, posters, banners, and brochures are distributed. The whole process is implemented every year to limit diseases with available resources.
Hepatitis:
Hepatitis B and C are the prevalent forms of hepatitis in Pakistan. The underlying causes of hepatitis are transmission from infected mother to child, transfusion of infected blood, using syringes or surgical equipment previously used by a hepatitis positive patient. Pakistan is also among the country ravaged by this crippling disease.
There are about 5 million and 10 million people across the country infected with HBV and HCV, respectivelyvi, while about 240,000 new cases are detected every year. The overwhelming majority of cases are unaware of it until it reaches its worst position, as this disease is dormant for 1-3 years.
Forty percent of people in Pakistan live below the poverty line, and the healthcare system of
Pakistan is not developed enough to deal with these overwhelming proportions of cases. The result is that the mortality rate from this infection is around 4%, which means around 120,000 Pakistanis die of the virus every year.
Though having scarce resources in healthcare, Pakistan has progressed a lot in containing the disease. A Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Testing Programmevii have established a surveillance system of acute viral hepatitis in 5 public sector tertiary-care hospitals located in
Lahore, Peshawar, Karachi, Quetta, and Islamabad. Also, in THQ and DHQ hospitals, screening tests are provided at cost-effective rates, but very few people know themselves to have this disease.
Lady health workers and other health workers are playing a crucial role in vaccinating infants at six weeks of age. Due to the efforts of the government, the prevalence of HBV has decreased slightly. The current government has signed a convention with WHO that Pakistan will eliminate hepatitis by 2030. However, it needs unprecedented steps to reach that target.
Polio:
Polio, or Poly Mellitus, is a contagious virus, which spreads from an infected person to another, causing paralysis, meningitis, and paresthesia (feeling of pins and needles in legs). This disabling and life-threatening virus lives in an infected person’s throat and intestine and is transmitted through the droplet of sneeze or cough and contact with feces of an infected person. Almost every country has got control over the virus; unfortunately, Pakistan is among the two remaining countries still struggling to eradicate it completely, along with our neighbor’s Afghanistan.
If we shed light upon the outbreaks of polio in Pakistan, it has gained control over the poliovirus from 2014 to 2018. Unfortunately, we witnessed a significant rise in the number of cases from all the provinces last year.
The work with partners as “one team under one roof” under the leadership of the government at emergency operations centers has been essential in ensuring improvements across all aspects of program operations, risk management, and oversight activities. Thanks to the centers, the program is now further supported by the availability of high-quality data and comprehensive, real-time risk assessment and monitoring, resulting in better campaign quality and better response to outbreaks.
In hopes of reaching the ultimate goal of polio eradication, Pakistan's polio eradication program is implementing an intensive vaccination campaign schedule focused on operational improvements to achieve high population immunity in the core reservoirs of Karachi, Khyber-Peshawar, and
Quetta Block while keeping the rest of the country polio-freeviii.
COVID-19:
COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in November 2019. Coronavirus spreads from droplets generated by an infected person's cough or sneeze. It might be transmitted when a person comes in contact with something having an infected person’s droplets. When someone is infected by the coronavirus, he or she may be symptomatic of coughing, high fever, breathlessness, and chest pain in severe cases while rashes, diarrhea, headache, and sore throat in mild casesix.
Since the first case of the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, it has ravaged the entire world.
More than 4 million cases of infected people have been recorded worldwide, including at least 281,000 deaths. The hospitals in both developing and developed countries are filled to the brim, and the people are going through severe anxiety and depression to witness the daily spike in the number of cases. To curb the spread of the virus, most of the countries around the world have imposed lockdown and emergency in their hospitals. The outlook of the implications of lockdown is bleak in both developing and developed countries.
Impacts of COVID-19
The Economy
The highly contagious nature of the novel coronavirus has pushed a large proportion of countries into imposing stern lockdowns. It brought dramatic effects on the overall activities of the economic sector ranging from sheer unemployment to the widespread decrease in the GDPs of countries.
With the announcement of lockdown, restaurants, industries, companies, markets, and other economic activities centers are closed. This decision spurred most daily earners to restrict themselves to their homes. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), there are
94% of labor working in those countries that have some measures of closure. These unprecedented circumstances have also prompted a decline of 10.7% in the working hours of workers.
The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have been diverse; they have permeated throughout society. The poverty gap in Pakistan is expected to increase because of the hindrances in remittances, small businesses, and net transfers. There has been a global decline and a freeze in the economic activity that has led to an overall decrease in demand, both external and internal, especially from and within the developing countries. There has been a noticeable decline in demand from Pakistan's primary trading partner, including UK, USA, and Europe. This has negatively affected the many people affiliated with the industry, where layoffs have started to impact the common person's bread and butter.x
Another blow to the economy has been the shutdown of many construction sites, manufacturing units, new investment plans, and trading activities that negatively affected the formal and informal sectors. Tourism has also been negatively impacted because of the travel restrictions, and this has also contributed to the fall in total revenue.
Lower-Income Demographic:
This pandemic has been the most difficult for the lower class and gender minorities, particularly women. Poor households that already had limited resources to survive now face an additional burden of protecting themselves against the virus and spending on buying masks, sanitizers, and other essentials.
Minority Groups
The gendered impact of the virus is equivalent to deadly, if not more. Empirical data collected by
UN bodies have proved that the conditions of marginal groups and gender minorities worsen during humanitarian crises.xi Being enclosed in the domestic setting with the male patriarchs is significantly worse off for women who may be subjected to increased domestic violence.
COVID-19’s far-reaching impacts:
Measures taken by other countries till May:
In response to the exponential growth of COVID-19, a number of countries, including the United
Kingdom, New Zealand, and France, swiftly imposed a complete lockdown in March 2020.xii This list also includes Pakistan. However, some countries only locked down partially; for instance, only some states of the United States of America, including California and New York, imposed a lockdown. Some countries chose a completely different strategy and chose to promote voluntary social distancing guidelines and working from home (when feasible) even at the dawn of the coronavirus. Other policies include avoiding public transport and large gatherings. Sweden is one of the countries which opted for this type of model, aiming for a slow rate of infection, and cases have seen a decrease. South Korea, too did not lock down and relied on rapid isolation, testing, and tracing, a measure which has been observed to be effective.xiii Pakistan lifted their lockdown in May 2020 and targets to follow the same mechanism as set by Sweden and South Korea. The question is, will Pakistani citizens follow the guidelines put in place?
Vaccine development
There are a number of key players in the vaccine market—namely, Pzifer, Moderna, Oxford, and
CanSinoBio (Chinese). The vaccine induces a harmless virus into a person’s body, which then produces antibodies. It goes through four trials before going into production.
First phase: a small number of people are injected with the vaccine to investigate safety and dosage and to understand if it stimulates the immune system.
Second phase: The vaccine is given to hundreds of people, including children, to investigate how it affects different people
Third phase: The vaccine is administered to thousands of people, and an investigation ensues to observe how many become infected, in contrast with a volunteer placebo group. This is the final phase.
The vaccine by Pzifer went through phase 1 and phase 2 in May 2020 and showed promising results. In late March, experts extrapolated the vaccine trajectory as such: xiv
Medical experts are also claiming that the vaccine will be available in around 12-18 months but even then, it might not be available worldwide.xv
Key terms:
Positivity ratio: The ratio of all COVID-19 tests which come out positive. The positivity ratio provides an indication of how widespread infection is in the area where the testing is taking place.
A higher positivity ratio means infection needs to be controlled, and more testing needs to be done.xvi
Immunity: Immunity with regards to COVID-19 means developing antibodies that prevent the virus. A person can get reinfected again as antibodies do not last more than a few months. Antibody tests are carried out to investigate if a person was infected once. A vaccine aims for immunity over a period of time. Testing capability:
Pakistan’s testing capability is 16000 tests a day, a number which the government hopes it can boost substantially.
Punjab: 5,810 per day.
Sindh: 5,000 per day.
Islamabad: 2,756 tests per day.
KPK: 1,788 test per day.
Baluchistan: 894 tests per day.
Lady Health Workers:
The Lady Health Workers program was established in 1993; it consists of district-based core teams of health workers who are trained to provide basic health treatment to improve healthcare accessibility for women and children patients.
Since October 14, hundreds of LHW have been protesting in the Red Zone of the capital; they complain of unpaid salaries, low incomes not sufficient to maintain households in inflation, and demand a 10-point agenda be met by the government. This consists of increasing salaries and pensions for LHWs, restoration of National program for family planning, regularization of all lady health workers appointments, and provision of sufficient security to polio workers.
The Federal government recognizes their concerns; the PTI government already passed the Lady
Health Workers Program and Employees Act, 2014 in KPK assembly to implement the regularize the job status of all LHW. However, challenges exist in the implementation of such policies. Furthermore, it is the priority of the PM to ensure that the LHWs return to their homes as soon as possible. For this reason, Punjab health Secretary Ajmal Bhatti has been in negotiation with the health workers representatives, providing sanitary facilities and accommodation. This committee needs to draft a policy that will meet some of the crucial demands of the LHW but at the same time convey the government's tight budgetary constraints that prevent it from following through with increasing salaries.
The Environment
At the September 2010 General Assembly of the UN, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood
Qureshi remarked, “Climate change, with all its severity and unpredictability, has become a reality for 170 million Pakistanis. The present situation in Pakistan reconfirms our extreme vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change.”
Pakistan faces many internal crises, but a largely ignored issue appears to be the environmental aspect. Along with the far-reaching impacts of climate change, Pakistan also experiences severe water crises, locusts attack, disturbing pollution levels, waste management, and many more.
Despite the extensive environmental problems, the country has not taken effective steps in the policy-making bodies to cater to these issues in the long run as some of the solutions that have been presented are short-sighted, lack the required scope, or are not suited to the Pakistani context—comparing Pakistan’s actions to solve environmental problems with other South Asian countries reveals how little we have done for one of the most crucial aspects of our lives.
Climate change, as the stated quotation has remarked, has manifested itself into a bitter reality that cannot be ignored. The rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and the associated water crisis, increased air pollution, a threat to wildlife are all problems that are directly linked with climate change; however, their impact reaches the agricultural sector and harms Pakistan’s already
shrinking economy. In addition to this, many other environmental problems also pose a critical threat to Pakistan.
It the compounding of all these environmental issues that has led to the environmental dilemma of this country, leading to the far-reaching impacts mentioned.
Climate Change
Climate change deals with the fact that the average conditions of our planet, including temperatures, rainfall patterns, sea levels, ice levels, and many others, are undergoing a significant change that can be observed by climate data records. Despite its significance and all-embracing impacts, the world is struggling to grasp climate change as a dire problem. Likewise, the impact of climate change in Pakistan has been paramount yet has been largely ignored in the past. Whether it is the changes in temperatures, water crises, air pollution, intense flooding, or heat waves, many consequential phenomena are closely linked to climate change that impacts the economy, agriculture, and politics of Pakistani society. On top of that, Pakistan’s geographical position has further intensified the impact it faces from climate change.
Climate Change and Temperature
Temperatures in Pakistan are undergoing a stark change where the summers are becoming warmer, and winters are getting colder than the expected level.
Fig A: Time series of area-weighted mean daily temperatures averaged over each year shows a sharp rise in temperature during the first decade of the 21st century except the year 2005.
These polarizing concepts can be explained in relation to climate change. A 2017 report by the
Asian Development Bank found out that Northern areas of Pakistan are bound to face the sharpest rise in temperatures, an estimated 1.12 degree Celsius annually, while overall, the four provinces of Pakistan are expected to undergo a 0.57-degree Celsius increase in temperatures.xvii
Heatwaves
Another leading problem caused by the rise in temperature due to climate change is the heat waves.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department Director-General, heat waves are expected to occur at a faster pace and for longer durations, primarily in the country’s south. Karachi has been described as an “urban heat island,” and regions such as Jacobabad are expected to be the
most vulnerable to rising temperatures. The national climate journal estimated that the number of
“lethal heat waves” is bound to rise globally, with Pakistan being geographically located at a particularly vulnerable point.xviii It is essential here to point out the fact that heat waves bring about high humidity levels that push up the heat index levels, making 45-degree Celsius feel like 50 degrees Celsius. These conditions severely affect individuals and may lead to heat strokes, heat toxicity, organ failure, and even death.
The government was unsuccessful in dealing with the 2015 heatwave, taking the lives of more than 1200 people. Many attribute this failure to the lack of resources and their inadequate management as the hospitals did not have sufficient stretchers, and the ambulances did not reach the target patients in time. These problems were exacerbated by the lack of awareness amongst the people relating to what proper preventive measures and first aids should be taken or given in the cases of heat strokes. However, some solutions, such as the installation of water coolers, did somewhat help, yet there is a need for the problem to be tackled on the governmental level. A similar effort was made where the authorities came up with a three-tier plan to deal with the matter with the help of GIS mapping, whereby city hotspots were identified based on the Ahmedabad
Heat Action Plan.xix But the scale of this was too small to target a large problem.
A viable solution appears to be the Prime Minister’s “10 billion tree Tsunami” that may mitigate the effects of increased temperatures caused by climate change. This policy was brought about after this government was successful in implementing a similar project called “Billion Tree
Tsunami” in their previous provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).xx However, the project has many shortcomings: this “green awakening” does not come without resistance. Many powerful individuals and mafias are expected to display resistance by destroying the planted trees.
Moreover, the project is not targeted towards specifically eliminating or lessening heat waves as no areas have been fixed for plantation. A coherent policy is needed to make further this project effective in the face of resistance it faces. Melting of Glaciers and Rising Sea Levels
High-temperature levels pose serious threats to any sphere of life. One of the major problems caused by increased temperature is the melting of glaciers that leads to higher and severer levels of flooding. The canals that have been built to trap water have run dry because of the shrinking of the glaciers. Many have said that glaciers have started to behave erratically because of the rise in temperatures in the mountainous regions.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) developed a report on
Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region and found that “at least a third of the glaciers in Asia’s towering mountains are doomed to melt due to climate change, with serious consequences for the approximately two billion people who live below and nearby” as even if “global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (as called for under the Paris Agreement), global warming will likely be at least 0.3 degree Celsius higher in the HKH, and at least 0.7 degree Celsius higher in the northwest
Himalayas and the Karakoram”.xxi
There will be changes in the freshwater systems because of this phenomenon that may lead to reverberations felt in the industrial, agricultural, and hydroelectric sectors that would intensify the issues present in the HKH region. The same study revealed that snow-covered places would also decrease, glaciers will go on to reduce in size and lose mass over the years because of the rise in temperatures.
This figure shows the projected spatial distribution of annual mean temperature change (˚C) over the region for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) over two time periods (2036–2065 and 2066–2096):
Carbon Emissions
Furthermore, another factor that leads to an increase in temperatures is the emission of greenhouse gases. Carbon emissions from vehicles and factories contribute massively to heating the planet by harming the ozone layer. Many have suggested limiting private transport would provide a workable solution and coming up with more pragmatic pollution policies, but the question is, would they be enough?
A Case of Low Temperatures
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reported in 2019 that Pakistan has been experiencing temperatures 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than the average, with predictions showing that temperatures may drop further.xxii This drop in temperatures in winters have led to heavy snowfall in the northern areas of Pakistan and Baluchistan as well. It is estimated that about 100 people died because of continuous snowfall, and the greatest number of deaths were experienced in Azad Kashmir Valley.xxiii Not only have the low temperatures resulted in deaths, but they also have impacted the lifestyle of the people as they have to face blocked roads, avalanches, and glaciers afterward. There is a dire need to address this issue in the short and long run to ensure that people get back to the normal ways of life.
Climate Change and Water
A 2010 report by the Task Force on Climate Changexxiv reported that climate change poses a major threat to water security and sources in Pakistan, as mentioned below:
(i) “Higher uncertainty in the river flowing patterns, owing to variable monsoon rainfalls
and the glaciers melting
(ii) Greater demand for water due to reduced water available per capita and rising demand,
aggravated by increase evaporation
(iii) The decreasing capacity of the reservoirs due to sedimentation and soil erosion, which
is due to higher intensity rainfall
(iv) Higher risks and incidences of snow avalanches in high altitude areas and GLOF
(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods)
(v) Decline the quality of surfaced water, because of extreme climatic events including but
limited to droughts and floods.”
Climate change poses a danger to Pakistan’s two main sources of deriving its electrical output: hydroelectric and thermal power. Both of these are water-dependent, and hence the change in the presence of water will lead to detrimental effects. The shrinking of glaciers means that the reservoirs will not receive enough water in the long run.
Along with that, the unpredictable nature of rainfall added with the uncertainly to run-offs entails that any future planning will be affected. Hence there is a need for a calculated solution here as well.
Climate Change and Air Pollution
Air pollution is closely linked to climate change. It entails the presence of dangerous particles and substances in the air that are disastrous for humans, plants, and animals, alike. The major causes of air pollution have been recognized to be tropospheric ozone gases (O3), sulfur oxides (SO2 and
SO3), nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2), and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).
Air pollution leads to many health concerns and adds to the existing health crises of Pakistan. It has been estimated that Pakistan’s healthcare emergencies lead to more emergencies than are reported by unsafe water sanitation, tuberculosis, and smoking. To put the seriousness of the situation in perspective and recognize it is a global issue, the World Health Organization (WHO)
“estimates that about 30 deaths per 100 000 are attributable to indoor air pollution, while about 25 deaths per 100 000 are attributable to outdoor air pollution.”xxv
The issue of air pollution has also become politicized in many aspects. For instance, when the city of Lahore was enveloped in smog, many politicians started to point their finger at India as they believed that it was the “enemy country” that deliberately burned crops near Pakistan that resulted in the disastrous smog.
In addition to that, the Euro-2 fuel quality standards that were introduced in Pakistan in 1998 are actually outdated. This fuel contains about more than 500 ppm of sulfur, whose implications can be disastrous on many levels. There is a need to advance to a sustainable source of fuel such as
Euro-5 and Euro-6 to improve the pollution levels of the country.
Though Pakistan does not make use of fossil fuels too profusely, the future may look somewhat different because of the projects that have been planned, such as the Sahiwal Coal Power Plant.xxvi
The aerial photo, taken on August 6, 2019, shows the Sahiwal Coal Power Plant:
The environmental consequences of this power plant are paramount that include the destruction of potential agricultural lands, air pollution, and water pollution. The usage of coal will also lead to additional issues such as toxic waste that includes land ash and fly ash. The burning of coal leads to the discharge of 20 harmful elements, and if they are not disposed of properly, they cause dangerous threats to the soil and the water systems as arsenic, mercury, and lead can be poisonous.xxvii Problems Associated with Climate Change
Climate change does not exist in a vacuum and is penetrating many other aspects of life.
Agricultural yields are severely impacted because of the quickly changing temperatures and fluctuating rainfall patterns, as shown by the difference in the total output produced between years.
According to research conducted in the Pakistan Journal of Agriculture, it was revealed that about
95% of farmers were able to point out that climate change was underway by observing their crops.xxviii
The rainfall patterns, in conjunction with increased dryness, because of the rise in temperatures, have deteriorated agricultural produce, as many farmers have complained. It is the arid regions of the country that are estimated to experience the most telling impacts of climate change. It is because of the combined effect of rising temperatures and change in rainfall patterns that droughts have also witnessed an increase, especially in the Southern regions of Pakistan. To put the situation in perspective, it is estimated that a rise in 1 degree Celsius in average temperature decreases 5-
7% of the grain yields. This leads to severe problems as the grain prices in Pakistan have already been on the rise because of its shortages.
In addition to that, unpredictable rainfall patterns have posed a challenge for the government as well because the agricultural sector is being propelled to look to different places to seek sources of fresh water in order for crop irrigation to avoid the reduced crop yields that threaten a food shortage in the country.
There have been many predictions that point out that if the current situation persists, Pakistan’s agricultural production will decline by almost 25% by 2025. It is important to remember that the agricultural sector contributed about 20% of the country’s GDP, and the estimated decrease would hit Pakistan in multiple arenas.
Many have suggested the plantation of drought and heat resistant plants that would enable optimal temperatures to be maintained to foster quality crop produce. However, the scale of this project seems to be too limited and coupled with the lack of information, there is a need for more pragmatic policy solutions to cater to the issue.
Water Crisis
Another one of the major environmental issues faced by Pakistan is its water crisis. Pakistan falls under the category of an agrarian economy, which entails that most of our economy is based on activities related to agriculture, directly or indirectly. It is important to remember that the nature of agriculture found here makes the dependence on the water a necessity. However, unfortunately, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan is the thirst most affected country with relation to water shortages and scarcity.xxix The situation is getting worse day by day, and if the status quo persists, the country will face severe and prolonged economic, ecological, and geopolitical effects.
The nature of water shortages is such that Pakistan has crossed the “water stress line” in 1990 and is expected to run dry by the year 2025 as per the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) and Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR).xxx
Water Crisis – a political issue? One of the reasons for the shortages includes the geopolitical reasons, especially Pakistan’s terms with the neighboring country India that is perceived to be our arch-nemesis. Our major water source, Indus, and its tributaries originate from the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir. In the past, there have been many efforts by India to stop the flow of water at times where we needed it, and they let a high flow of water enter the tributaries when our country was experiencing heavy spells of rainfall. It must be remembered that this skirmish not only impacts the socio-economic aspect of the Pakistani living in vulnerable areas but also pose a threat to fish, habitats, and species that migrate from or to the places that are impacted by these activities.
Lack of Dams
Another major issue that further worsens the water crisis at hand is the absence of reservoirs and dams to trap water that may provide multi-faceted benefits. It is unfortunate that Tarbela and
Mangla Dam are the only major dams that are used to store floodwater in Pakistan. These dams, in 2018, reached their respective “dead” level, which means that they did not contain sufficient water to function properly. Despite that, an official, Muhammad Khalid Rana, from the Indus River
System Authority (IRSA), has alarmingly notified that Pakistan is immensely short on resources to save water as it can only save water for around 30 days in its current capacity. Additionally, he went on to state that Pakistan approximately receives 145 million acre-feet of water but can only save 13.7 million acre-feet of water annually. He mentioned that Pakistan needs about 40 million acre-feet of water per annum, and 29-acre feet is wasted because of the absence of reservoirs and dams.xxxi Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dam – a potential solution?
A solution has come forward to prevent the situation from worsening, and that is the formation of the Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dam that would be located on the River Indus, near Chilas
(KPK and Gilgit-Baltistan), 315 kilometers from the Tarbela Dam and about 40 kilometers downstream of Chilas Town.xxxii This project has been given to WAPDA and is aimed to have the live storage of 6.40 MAF and the gross storage of 8.10 MAF, with a total installed capacity of
4500 MW. 12 turbines have also been aimed to be placed where each is to have the power of 375
MW.
To make this project a reality, the Supreme Court, along with Prime Minister Imran Khan, announced in July 2018 that funds would be collected from Pakistani present in the country and abroad. The total cost for the project is estimated to be 1.4 Trillion Rupees that only includes
Diamer-Bhasha Dam.
This project started off well but was soon engulfed in controversies that included corruption charges. There is also no clarity on how these funds would be utilized and put into the right hands.
For instance, when independent bodies inquired WAPDA on the feasibility report on the project, the organization declined to respond, claiming that sharing such information would have a
“negative impact” on the procurement of the project. xxxiii
Corruption and embezzlement charges have impacted the project, too, as many people whose lands were taken away claim that they were not justly compensated for it. The previous Chief Minister of Pakistan (JCP) Justice Saqib Nisar took notice and set up an investigation committee to look into the matter.xxxiv However, this instance has given us insight into how projects need to be regulated more carefully and that policies are needed to fix such issues that call for proper transparency where there are no loopholes left even to allow chances for corruption.
Locust Attacks
Furthermore, another issue that has impacted the environment is the wave of locust attacks. This has greatly impacted the farmers who are faced with what is known to be the worst locust attack in about three decades. Insects have swarmed the entire fields in the agricultural land, and the attack has resulted in massive crop damages that have led to soaring prices of food. The country declared a national emergency on February 1 because of the impact of the attack. The major blow came to the province of Punjab that is the country’s major agricultural hub.
The wave of the attack came from the Arabian Peninsula last year because of the heavy showers of rainfall and intense cyclones. The weather conditions proved to provide a breeding ground for locusts, which later spread throughout East Africa to India and late came to Pakistan, entering from
Iran at the Southwestern border from the desert region.
A Blow to the Economy
This attack has drastically affected the economy as it is predicted that the pest damage that has been done could cut Pakistan’s economic growth to almost less than 2%. The rationale behind this mega impact is that agriculture forms a major part of the economic growth as it contributes about
20% to the GDP. This damage, when coupled with the high inflation rates, doubled prices of sugar, and increased flour prices, is bound to leave us in a crisis of an unprecedented nature. Action is needed quickly because, as per Bloomberg, “hundreds of thousands of pods of orange-colored eggs are now waiting to hatch which may just devour the new batch of crops.”xxxv
Pollution
Pollution has been Pakistan’s problems for a very long time. The most imminent ones include air, water, land, and noise pollution and pose a serious threat to the lifestyle of the people and the landscape of the land.
Water Pollution
Water pollution is one of the most serious threats to the country as it encompasses many aspects of people’s life. Pakistan ranks at 80th position among the 122 countries that related to the quality of drinking water.xxxvi The sources available for drinking water, including both the surface and the groundwater, are contaminated with numerous toxins such as poisonous metals and dangerous pesticides. In addition to that, the drinking water quality checks laid out by WHO are violated on a daily basis without any possible accountability or checks.
This problem is worsened by the waste that is disposed of by Pakistani into the water systems. The improper waste disposal entails that harmful industrial waste and agrochemical run-offs enter the water streams, threatening the lives of marine life.
There is a need to draft effective policies and come up with a solution that deals with this issue on an urgent basis because the cost of human and marine life is at stake.
Land Pollution Land pollution in Pakistan is also an issue that cannot be ignored. It primarily deals with soil erosion and the improper disposal of waste materials.
Soil Erosion
Soil is essential for quality agricultural produce. Unfortunately, our soil has been faced with impregnated with pollution that has led to many harmful changes in the edaphic factors. One of the reasons for soil erosion is deforestation, as it leaves the soil dry, and there is a possibility that it may become useless ground in the future.
Another factor that causes soil degradation is the presence of chemicals that may be caused by the excessive use of pesticides or acid rain. Chemicals alter the pH levels of the soil and block passages of water to penetrate into the ground, which proves detrimental for the crops.
Waste Disposal
These are of two types: human waste and industrial waste. Both imply that when untreated waste materials come into contact with the soil, the impact its natural qualities and remove many of its beneficial qualities. One of the worst types of untreated disposals comes from nuclear waste that leads to the presence of radioactive substances being present in the soil that further worsens the quality of crops.
What Resources Do We Have in the Present?
It is to be understood that Pakistan has a limited budget to deal with the environmental issues at hand. For the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for 2018-19, Pakistan attributed 802.69 million rupees to its Climate Change Division, where 766.69 million rupees is for the present projects and the remaining for the new projects. xxxvii
The Economy
Previous governments have left Pakistan in a destitute economic state and with little potential to fix problems in a short time span. The Imran Khan government faces emerging economic problems while trying to fix inherited problems such as balance of payments, national debt, and inflation.
The Khan government continues to deal with some of these problems while introducing economic relief programs such as Ehsaas.
Balance of payments (BOP):
Balance of payments refers to all transactions by individuals, companies, government bodies, etc., within an economy. The BOP consists of both imports and exports of goods, services, capital, as well as remittances, and foreign aid. It is divided into the current account and capital account xxxviii.
In the recent past, Pakistan’s macroeconomic situation worsened exponentially, particularly in
2007/08 and the four months of 2008/09. Negative security developments, supply and demand shocks in oil and food, and the 2008 financial crisis affected the economy. These factors, along with policy inaction during the political transition to a new government, led to slower growth and higher inflation. Pakistan’s balance of payments has mainly stayed negative for a couple of decades as borrowing and spending is almost always greater than the revenue generated, but governments mishandling Pakistan’s economy since 2008/2009 has only made the situation worse xxxix.
Current Account Deficit today: In line with market expectations, the Current Account Deficit (a component of Balance of
Payments) has shrunk to a nominal $6 million in March 2020 due to a swift deceleration in imports in the context of COVID-19 with demand and supply shocks across industries. (Figure 1)
The current account deficit is 99% down compared to $823 million recorded in March 2019, the
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported xl. It has been observed by experts that the import of goods and services both have dropped drastically due to lockdowns globally, with businesses reducing functionality in general. (Figure 1)
The import of goods decreased as aggregate demand fell massively ahead of an anticipated contraction in the national economy in the current fiscal year ending June 30, 2020. The economy is expected to shrink 1.55% in FY 2020, with a recovery on the cards for FY 2021 according to
SBP statistics. (Figure 2) xli
Fig. 1 Fig. 2
The import of goods decreased by 19.25% to $3.32 billion in March compared to $4.11 billion in the same month of last year. The import of services dropped 25% to $624 million compared to
$829 million.
The country meets 70-80% of its energy needs through imports. The energy import bill stands at one-fourth of the total imports. Interestingly, a decrease in international benchmark oil price has led to less capital spent on energy resources and hence a decrease in the total bill. As noted in
February, oil prices dropped to below 15% per barrel. It is projected that this decrease in price can save Pakistan $500-600 million dollars in FY 2020 xlii.
Exports fell almost 11% to $1.81 billion in the month under review compared to $2.04 billion last year.
These developments suggest a favorable outlook on the current account position. The current account deficit would remain near zero in the remaining three months of the current fiscal year.
Accordingly, the current account deficit would not be expected to exceed over $3 billion for the full fiscal year.
Month by Month Current Account Deficit: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down Pakistan’s current account deficit forecast to around $4.5 billion for FY20 from over $6 billion before the pandemic hit the people and economy hard around the globe.
It's important to note that while Pakistan’s current account deficit is decreasing due to low imports, exports are also low due to less demand for goods and services in international markets in the current context. Value Added Products are to be looked favorably upon by the government to boost exports and create a production surplus.
The closure of the Pak-Afghan border was seen to create an increase in the current account deficit till May 2020, during which the border was opened. Pakistan had a $1 billion dollar surplus with
Afghanistan. The closure was projected to result in a massive impact with regards to the Current
Account Deficit, due to delays in shipments, with South Asia Pakistan Terminal being allegedly responsible xliii.
Additionally, lockdowns imposed in Europe can cause a reduction in exports. News has been circulating in the market that European companies have been canceling or delaying orders due to a shutdown of markets.
Almost 50% of Pakistani exports are shipped to countries massively affected. China, the UK, the
US, France, Italy, and Spain are some examples. Delay or cancellation in exports would result in a massive disruption in employment xliv. Due to this reason, the export-based textiles and apparel industry would see a massive loss in jobs as drowning companies would either furlough their workers or release them completely. Many people in Pakistan will not have stable finances, many of whom would have voted for this government. The committee must draft a plan that protects these workers from being released and save toppling companies in the interest of relief. On the other hand, if the global oil price stays at lower levels, at that point, it will cause work cuts in the oil-sending out nations, incorporating those in the Middle East, where a greater part of
Pakistani ex-pats work. The Pakistani Diaspora is of immense importance to PM Khan’s government; they send billions of dollars’ worth of remittances to Pakistan xlv. Failure to accommodate these ex-pats might result in decreased remittances. But most importantly, their families back home will be the ones who will suffer the most, increasing both poverty and hunger during this time of crisis.
With regards to a surplus or a deficit in the current account, the committee must decide which route to choose. Both can prove to be sustainable, but members must keep into the economic infrastructure of the country. Pakistan can perhaps afford a large deficit as it may be feasible to bank on economic prosperity in the future, for example, CPEC increasing economic growth and allowing Pakistan greater trade opportunities. However, this may be detrimental even in the long term as the deficit might increase more than Pakistan can finance in the future. On the other hand, aiming for a reduction in CAD through disincentivizing imports and incentivizing exports might be appealing in the short term, but that might reduce economic growth through import-based businesses failing. Cabinet members must keep Pakistan’s financial situation in mind while drafting any plan, and come to a sustainable solution xlvi.
National Debt:
National debt refers to the total amount of money the Pakistani government owes to its creditors.
Emerging creditors include China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), among other countries. Importantly, Nawaz Sharif’s government in their last year in charge took out a loan of $10 billion dollars to repay outstanding debts and keep the currency afloat, the most ever in a single year of Pakistan’s history xlvii. a series of loans like these has led to problems with Pakistan’s Debt-GDP percentage which now stands at more than 100% creating a variety of problems for both its citizens and the economy at large. Pakistan’s total debt obligations from overseas stand at around $90 billion xlviii. China:
The China-Pakistan economic corridor has created a need-based relationship between the 2 actors.
CPEC is a $62 billion project aiding both Pakistan and China in economic growth, increasing
China’s influence through the Belt and Road initiative, and providing Pakistan productive dividends. Loans to Pakistan after the initiation of CPEC have increased by many folds since 2013.
Pakistan owes around 20% of its debt obligations to China and needs to pay north of $19 billion to China at an interest rate of 7%, making it Pakistan’s biggest financier. Other than loans from the Chinese government, Pakistan also owes to direct investors from China. The Chinese government has financed multiple projects in Pakistan, such as the Karot power station, DC transmission line from Lahore to Matiari, Karachi circular railway, Karakoram highway, and
Orange Line Train, among other projects xlix.
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:
Pakistan was once named as Saudi Arabia’s closest ally in the Muslim world. An aspect of the economic relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is the extensive financial aid that the latter has supplied to the former. In 2014, Saudi Arabia loaned Nawaz Sharif’s government $1.5 billion in order to shore up foreign exchange reserves and save the rupee, and undertake energy and infrastructure projects. Nawaz Sharif’s governments took out extensive loans such as these to keep the pegged rupee at a stable value. Moreover, in 2019, upon the arrival of the crown prince, Saudi
Arabia paid $20 billion to finance development projects in Pakistan, claiming that the investment would be fruitful for both countries. The loan includes $10 billion financings for an oil refinery set-up in Pakistan. The dichotomy between Nawaz Sharif’s government and Imran Khan’s government is fairly simple: Nawaz Sharif took out loans for short term economic solutions to long term problems such as the Rupee’s artificial pegging being unstable, while Imran Khan’s government takes loans for economic prosperity in the future, ultimately solving problems for the long term l.
IMF:
On July 3, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved a 39-month extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan for an amount of $6 billion to support the authorities’ economic reform program.
The EFF-supported program was promised in a bid to help Pakistan to reduce economic vulnerabilities and generate sustainable growth, focusing on: reducing public debt and build resilience while expanding social spending; a flexible, market-determined exchange rate to restore competitiveness and rebuild official reserves; to eliminate losses in the energy sector, and to strengthen institutions and enhance transparency li.
National debt and the common man:
Pakistan’s debt to GDP percentage stands at 78.65% as of 2020. Each Pakistani owes 1.53 lakhs, which is almost as much as the average Pakistani man makes every year lii.
A high and increasing debt to GDP ratio shows that the government is spending more than the
GDP is increasing through economic growth; what this leads to is decreased investment for the public. As the government tries to spend more tax on financing its loans, it shrugs away from its responsibility to use that tax on developmental projects liii. Projects which are meant for the public.
This leads to the disenfranchisement of common citizens, something that the Khan government cannot afford if they are to be elected again. People want to see the taxes they pay spent on improving their standard of living.
Secondly, as the debt burden on Pakistan increases, financial instruments used by the government to borrow money become riskier; there is a higher chance for the government to default on its debt obligations, and this results in a higher interest rate due to more risk taken on especially by international investors. An increase in interest rates is detrimental because this leads to the average
Pakistani suffering once again; high-interest rates lead to a higher cost paid. A Pakistani trying to take a loan out would now be paying more than they would have to before. This leads to even more disenfranchisement, especially for the middle class.
It is projected that the debt-GDP ratio will decrease in the future as debt is reduced or paid back, and GDP increases. But the committee must ensure that the common man is not disenfranchised in the short term. It must find productive ways to pay back Pakistan’s debt and, in the future, ensure loans are taken for lower amounts and at low-interest rates.
Inflation: Pakistan shifting to a floating market rate in compliance with the IMF’s demands rapidly made the currency volatile. Lack of trust due to the performance of previous governments, coupled with a sensitive economy, has made investors shrug away from the PKR in the foreign exchange market.
Due to this low demand in the market, the PKR has been observed to devalue against the US
Dollar, which is typically seen as a globally accepted trade currency liv. While imports have been restricted by the Khan government, it is important to note that this devaluation has caused input prices of various products to rise. While we observe oil price falling globally, Pakistan is an anomaly as it is held hostage by oil companies competing for high margins. They tend to keep supply artificially low in order to retain or increase prices and at times do not shore up their reserves when necessary lv. This means the production of all kinds of goods, particularly in the food industry are more expensive as the rupee keeps devaluing.
When we turn to electricity, IMF’s condition on increasing energy prices becomes a relevant topic of discussion lvi. High tariffs keep electricity prices higher, and all major industries pay the price.
This results in production are expensive for consumers, as well as the transport required for distribution. Eventually, the end consumer faces the brunt and pays a higher price, leading to a percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for essentials such as food. 8.2% inflation has been reported YoY as of May 2020, with even higher inflation rates in the previous months.
The case of wheat:
Even with setting a target of 24 million tons of wheat last year, it did not serve to be enough due to smuggling and Sindh not procuring any wheat at all. 200,000 to 400,000 tons of wheat exports were allowed in 2019; in reality, 640,000 tons were exported lvii. Due to wheat-related investigations of Sindh government officials by NAB, the Sindh government did not procure any wheat at all lviii. Both of these resulted in a massive shortage of wheat across Pakistan, even giving way to hoarding, which eventually led to prices shooting upwards. This trend has been noticed in
2020 as well, and it is to be seen how wheat prices are to be controlled, given smuggling is a profound issue that hurts local consumption. The State Bank states: “The heat map visually elaborates the evolution of inflation. A heat-map for National, Urban, and Rural CPI inflation
(YoY/MoM) and their important sub-indexes for the time span of the last thirteen months is presented below. The inflation is compared with the benchmark of the medium-term inflation target of 8.5 percent and 0.75 percent on YoY and MoM basis, respectively. Greener areas indicate low inflation pressures and increasing order of red (light to dark color spectrum, i.e., light green to orange to brown to red) represents higher and higher inflationary pressures.” lix
Pakistan consumes 2 million tons of wheat a month, and a lot of its population is dependent on it.
Given that it is a necessity, rising prices result in taking up more of an average Pakistani’s monthly income and driving them closer to extreme poverty and an overall decrease in quality of life.
Pakistan’s earlier shutdown has caused significant losses in income for millions. Ordinary people have been at the brunt of economic losses and are continually struggling due to rising inflation, especially inflation in necessities, ultimately being held hostage to hoarders. The ordinary
Pakistani man is being driven into rising poverty, and the middle class is struggling to hold on to their savings. This committee must focus on a plan to make wheat prices stable and do more than the Ehsaas program to support the ones most affected.
Ehsaas Program and BISP:
Ehsaas is an umbrella framework designed by the Division of Poverty and Social Safety in 2019 to reduce inequality. It was based on the ideals of a western state and uses technology to create safety nets, create financial inclusion, and support access to digital services. In COVID-19’s context, the Ehsaas Emergency Cash program is being utilized to provide relief to millions lx.
What is the framework for the Ehsaas emergency cash program?
● Potential beneficiaries send their CNIC number to 8171 or register themselves at the Ehsaas
web portal
● The Ehsaas team then verifies potential beneficiaries’ credentials from their database and
sends back a message confirming or denying eligibility. ● Eligibility is based primarily on need and is focused on daily wage workers or citizens
earning less than PKR 20000. Government workers and blocked beneficiaries are not
eligible.
● Total payment of PKR 12000 (spanning 4 months) is then transferred to beneficiaries after
biometric verification from NADRA offices. Cash is then received through more than
18,000 retail outlets of Bank Al Falah and Habib Bank. lxi
BISP, or Benazir income support program is an older counterpart to the Ehsaas program and functions in a similar manner. It was created in 2008, and was designed as a counter to poverty caused by inflation as well as to empower women lxii. In 2016, nearly $900 million was distributed to 5.4 million beneficiaries lxiii. BISP is the single largest relief program in Pakistan. In recent times, BISP has been converted into the Ehsaas Kafalat program. Beneficiaries already part of
BISP continue to receive cash from the Ehsaas Kafalat program based on eligibility. The PTI government converted BISP in a bid to make it more transparent and corruption-free lxivafter it was found that hundreds of thousands of ineligible citizens were getting aid.
Controversy:
The Benazir Income Support Program (now Ehsaas Kafalat program) has come under scrutiny multiple times. In January 2020, 2000, government employees came under fire for pocketing money from the once esteemed program. The analysis showed that more than 140,000 government employees or their spouses had benefited unfairly from the program. Additionally, it was found that 820,165 undeserving people were availing financial assistance from BISP. This shows a lack of transparency measures within the organization and takes away money from Pakistanis who deserve financial support. lxv In 2014, BISP was investigated by the FIA for multi-billion Rupees corruption. Rs 2.345 billion was taken out under ‘flood relief’ and allocated to people unaffected by floods; it is unclear who got these funds and what the criteria were. In another instance, Rs817.016 million was paid to the
NDRA for data-related activities and for media campaigns without the approval of contracts from the World Bank. Additionally, Rs. 9 million were paid to the director-general of Balochistan by the BISP secretary at the time. Securing vehicles at cheaper rates using the institution has also been seen as a prevalent practice, along with favoring multiple political leaders financially.lxvi
While in principle, the BISP might be a revolutionary program, in reality, it is often used as a political tool either to benefit politicians or to make those within the institution better off, incorrectly and unethically allocating taxpayer money into the wrong hands. The induction of BISP as the Ehsaas Kafalat program aims to solve all of these problems.
It is the committee's duty to utilize the Ehsaas program effectively and make it more accessible for the common man whenever in effect.
Politics
Competing in the Jungle: Dissecting Pakistan’s Foreign Relations
Pakistan sits at a geographically strategic position. Owing to this, the country has great importance on the global stage in terms of maintaining regional security (Particularly in Afghanistan) and expanding global trade. However, the nation finds itself in a complicated relationship with some of its closest allies which prevents further developments in trade because its allies are often at loggerheads with one another, placing Pakistan in an uncomfortable position as it is expected to choose parties. Our administration realizes that in this competitive international political system, it is a nations scientific, technological, and economic advancement as well as Military Strength more than anything else that establishes power and relevance on the global stage
Pak-Saudi Relations:
Relations were in their prime as of December 10, 2019, crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman completed his tour of the country lxvii , and PM Imran had visited Saudi Arabia more than any other country lxviii. Furthermore, towards the end of 2018, when Pakistan faced a severe cash crunch, on
the request of the PTI government, Saudi Arabia pledged a $6 billion bailout package, which included $3 billion on the balance of payment support and $3 billion in deferred payments on oil imports lxix.
However, relations took a turn for the worse from December 20, 2019, when PM was invited to the Kuala Lampur Summit. Saudi Arabia viewed the joint Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, Iran
Summit as a threat to its leadership of the Islamic World lxx and threatened to send 4 million
Pakistani laborers back to Pakistan if PM Imran was to attend lxxi. In response, Pakistan backs out of the summit and attempts to send FM to counsel Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis reject the tour by Shah Mehmood Qureshi and demand PM Imran be brought to Saudi to counsel the Crown
Prince lxxii
A growing rift between both nations seems to be cooking. Furthermore, Pakistan is upset that Saudi
Arabia is not stepping up the Kashmir Issue at the OIC, instead of providing India with a silent member seat at OIC summit 2019, which Pakistan later Boycotted lxxiii. The Lack of verbal and diplomatic support on Saudi Arabia’s part prompted FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi to release a press conference where he put Pakistan’s close relationship with Saudi Arabia into question, a statement he later backtracked on after severe backlash from KSA lxxiv. After the statements in August 2020,
Pakistan returned $1 billion to Saudi Arabia after Saudi Arabia demanded the money be paid off in an unusually aggressive manner lxxv.
It is the cabinet's utmost duty to make sure Pakistan-Saudi Relations are secured and of the highest caliber. Saudi Arabia is a vital partner for Pakistan employing Millions of Ex-pats, regularly providing financial assistance, a customer of Pakistani built weaponry. Additionally, both nations share a deep religious connection, with the crown being custodians of the Two Holy Mosques; any harm in relations could instigate rioting at home owing to the countries powerful cleric who derives support and influence from the KSA.
Pak-Turkey Relations:
Relations between Turkey and Pakistan are in their prime. The recent announcement of a possible agreement for dual citizenship for both Turks and Pakistanis is a culmination of successive talks and strong relations. Additionally, the government intends to commemorate 100 years of the
Khilafat Movement of the 1920s to showcase the close ties between both nations lxxvi. Notably, the
Turkish ambassador to Pakistan declared recently that the Turkish consulate under construction in
Karachi, Pakistan, would be Turkey’s largest consulate anywhere in the world, symbolizing the importance of Turkish–Pakistani ties.
Turkey is one of Pakistan’s largest arms supplier. Bilateral defense and security ties were boosted with ground-breaking defense deals in 2018. For example, in October 2018, the Pakistan Navy commissioned a 17,000-tonne fleet tanker, built-in collaboration with Turkish Defense company
STM in the southern port city of Karachi lxxvii. Turkey is also upgrading three Pakistani submarines.
By 2017, Turkish investment in Pakistan surpassed $1 billion, and Turkey has committed to pursuing projects in the nation. These include the export of its Metrobus rapid transit system as well as a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries. Bilateral trade hovers at around $900 million but has the potential of growing up to $10 billion if an FTA can be reached lxxviii. Turkey has long been considered an economic and political model for Pakistan. Finally,
Turkish Soap Operas, in particular, Resurrection: Ertugal, which has been airing on PTV on the advice of the PM, has proven to be a huge commercial success in Pakistan and helped cement relations between the people of both nations lxxix
It is the goal of the committee to keep Pak-Turkey relations where they are without risking other partnerships.
Pak China Relations:
PM Imran has assured the public that Pakistan seeks no adjustment in the $62 Billion CPEC deal he quoted saying, “Our relationship with China is better than ever before. For us, the way we look at it is… our future, economic future is now linked with China” lxxx adding that “China is growing at a faster rate than probably any other country and Pakistan can benefit from the way China has lifted its people out of poverty.”
China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner and a major investor, especially in the energy and infrastructure sectors. By 2018, bilateral trade between both nations was measured at around $18 billion.
Since the official launch of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the relationship has been elevated to a new heights level. CPEC is the centerpiece of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s initiative of “One Road and One Belt,” which aims at enhancing connectivity and improving infrastructure between Pakistan and China. Several projects are being implemented under CPEC, which includes investments in roads, power stations, a port at Gwadar, and railways lxxxi. People- to-people contacts are an important aspect of the bilateral relationship. China continues to provide with aid in times of distress, and Pakistan has returned the favor by remaining steadfast in its support for China in the territory of Hong Kong and is a sponsor of the One-China Policy.
It is the job of the committee to ensure that any sort of political upheaval or militant operations in
Baluchistan is contained as to secure on-going Chinese investments and keep Chinese foreign investors confident in CPEC. Furthermore, Pakistan needs to reap the benefits of China's Economic
Orbit and at the same time, not risk diplomatic relations with the US.
Pak-US relations:
The United States is holding an incredibly strategic relationship with Pakistan, and while the relationship has had its fair share of bumps, it is of high priority for the government in securing
Pakistan’s longstanding security apparatus as well as for bilateral trade purposes. More specifically, the US is Pakistan’s largest export partner as US-Pak trade stood at a staggering $6.6 billion in 2019, and the US continues to invest in reverse trade delegations, business conferences, technical assistance, and provide business outreach lxxxii. Other Major US investments include consumer goods, energy, chemicals, communications, and business process outsourcing. Since PM
Imran’s landmark visit to Washington, both President Trump and the PM have agreed to work towards increasing the commercial ties between both nations however, due to the climate of business in Pakistan including regularity barriers, weak IP protection, and discriminatory taxes have presented US firms from operating in Pakistan.
Another major challenge to the relationship is the India Factor. India is now part of American strategy to contain our ally China, Pakistan risk losing ground to India in the battle for influence in Washington. PM's visit in July 2019 was undoubtedly a success in presenting Pakistan’s point of view regarding the Kashmir issue as to invite the US to mediate between both Pakistan and
India lxxxiii. A final issue for the PM is the importance of mobilizing Pakistani expatriates in the US
To further advance Pakistan’s agenda in American Foreign Policy and security establishment as
India has. Finally, Pakistan has been a key player in securing the US-Taliban peace deal for
Afghanistan. If the deal cements, it will have unprecedented benefits for Pakistan’s security
Apparatus lxxxiv. Nonetheless, PM Imran has been quite successful in rebuilding the strategic partnership between the US and Pakistan. This can be seen from the recent decision of USDSCA to approve the sale of $125 million worth of monitoring equipment for Pakistan’s F-16 arsenal lxxxv, as well as the US state department's decision to label the BLA a global terrorist organization.
The committee has to achieve US mediation of the Kashmir Issue, secure the longstanding survival of the US-Taliban peace deal in Afghanistan, mobilize expatriates in the US for its service and improve the overall business climate in Pakistan to become more economically Significant for the
US.
Pakistan and FATF:
The Financial Action Task Force is an international body that aims to curb global money laundering and terror financing through the collective implementation of strict regulations by each of its signatory states. Owing to India and Israel’s Powerful lobbying in the FATF, Pakistan was enlisted on the Grey List in June 2018 and remains on it till today. Pakistan was accused of failing to identify terror financing, implement sanctions in cases of money laundering, investigate and prosecute designated persons of terrorism, and much more lxxxvi. Interestingly, the Basel Anti- money laundering Index, which measures the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing
(using 14 indicators such as corruption, financial standards, political disclosure) ranked Pakistan
46/146 countries in 2017 better than Tajikistan, Kenya or Panama, all of which are not on FATF's grey list. Nonetheless, the FATF grey list puts the nation in a vulnerable position because it risks being blacklisted, which would result in the sanctioning of the Pakistani State, which would terminate
Pakistan from access to the world’s financial market and thus strip it form access to Foreign
Exchange which would have detrimental effects on the State of the economy lxxxvii.
This committee must find a way to Pass, implement, and follow-up with the required categories of the FATF to remove the country from the Grey List.
Riding Through the Swamp: Navigating Pakistan’s Tense Political Scene
The government has faced an increasingly hostile opposition from JUIF, PPP, and PMLN who are fearful of losing relevance on the political and social stage. This hostility has come in the form of marches, staged protest and disobedience, and unethical conduct at the National Assembly and
Senate. The government remains confident in its ability to control the situation and allowing all parties to carry out their constitutional right to express their opinions, despite the grave socio- economic/transport difficulties and corona health risks these gatherings poise. However, it does not intend to tolerate any anti-state or anti-military sentiments that aim to destroy the unity of the
State. It would be the cabinet’s priority to sufficiently tackle any such anti-state sentiments on any platform.
JUIF Azadi March:
The first instance of political opposition to government emerged in October 2019 with the emergence of the JUIF lead Azadi March under Maulana Fazl Ur Rehman, demanding PM Imran’s resignation. The baseless accusations against the PM accused him of him being a ‘Zionist,’
‘Qadiani,’ and ‘Authoritarian’ but were not limited to these as later on. They questioned the legitimacy of the 2018 general elections, built hoaxes regarding a visit of Islamabad by Benjamin
Netanyahu on October 25, 2019, to steer religious sentiments, and opposed the legitimacy of the trials of Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari. Not only did these allegations later be proven false, but the driving motives of their March proved that the March was an attempt to secure Maulanas own personal political aspirations and that of his corrupt allies Zardari and the Sharif Brothers lxxxviii.
Nonetheless, the government, firm in its belief of safeguarding Pakistan’s democratic principles, allowed the ‘Azadi’ march dharna to take place as long as it abided by the rules of law and ethics.
The government also established a Seven-member committee headed by Defense Minister Pervez
Khattak consisting of Education minister Shafqat Mahmood, Religious Minister Noor-ul-Haq
Qadri, Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani, National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser, Speaker of Provincial Assembly of Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, and Minister for planning development and special initiatives Asad Umar to negotiate with the opposition-led Rehbar committee to end the Azadi March however the Rehbar Committee remained stubborn and demanded the resignation of Imran Khan. On October 26, 2019, JUI-F Islamabad General Secretary Mufti
Muhammad Abdullah and Islamabad's Deputy Commissioner signed an agreement that the March will not enter the Red Zone in exchange for a NOC; The protesters would ensure that the participants do not leave their designated value, public rights would not be violated and would hold responsibility for internal security lxxxix. Plan A of the March failed and was called off on
November 13, 2019, and moved to plan B, which consisted of blocking roads and creating difficulties for the civilian population. However, after Nawaz Sharif's departure owing to suspicious health circumstances, the plan be was also called off on November 19, which puts the entire March into question over its real aspirations.
Civil unrest in Waziristan:
Following Operation Zarb e Azab that cleared the threat from the TTP and the merger of FATA with the rest of KPK, a new anti-state entity has emerged in the form of the Pashtun Tahafuz
Movement in the area of Waziristan. The leaders Ali Wazir, Manzoor Pastheen, and Moshin Dawar have regularly incited anti-state and anti-Punjabi rhetoric in their speeches. The rise of PTM marks a dangerous new turn for the security and sovereignty of the Pakistani State. It is a must for the committee to maintain a watchful eye on the operations of this organization and prevent it from spreading its harmful agenda/propaganda.
Saving the Pak in Pakistan: Our Fight to Defeat Corruption
Prime Minister Imran Khans' entire election campaign and lifetimes political work has been about tackling corruption and holding politicians accountable for cases of money laundering, tax evasion,
and embezzlement. This has included empowering and providing the National Accountability
Bureau with sufficient flexibility and resources to investigate and prosecute. In particular, it was a campaign promise of the PTI to hold Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif accountable for his undeclared possession of offshore accounts and Former President Asif Ali Zardari's laundering of money using Swiss Bank accounts as well as laundering via Omni Group. Unfortunately, several accusations of corruption have recently arisen against members of the PTI government, it is the cabinet's duty to make sure that these are investigated as to uphold our value of accountability in the eyes of the public but at the same time maintain the loyalty of our Party Members.
● The Sharif Scandal: On April 3, 2016, the International Consortium of Investigative
Journalists (ICIJ) made secret documents, later known as the Panama Papers, accessible to
the public. The documents exposed around eight offshore companies with links to the
Sharif Family. The report stated that children of Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif; Maryam,
Hassan, and Hussain were Owners of several offshore companies the likes of which
included Nescoll Limited, Nielson Holdings Limited, Hangon Property Holdings Limited,
and Coomber Group Inc. Using these companies, the sharifs has purchased 4 pieces of real
estate including 16,17,17A Avenfeild and Parklane Flats in London xc. After the report,
then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif promised to form a judicial commission to investigate
the charges, however, the commission failed to form. In response, then opposition
members, Imran Khan and Sheikh Rasheed filed petitions against the Sharif family in the
Supreme Court. Moreover, the courts were suspicious of state institutions such as FBR and
NABs inability to investigate the accusations, justice Khosa going as far as to quote "Thank you very much for not assisting the court," about FBR. The lack of serious investigation
on part of FBR and NAB raised serious questions on the influence the sharifs had on both
institutions. Upon further investigation by the JIT on July 10 2017, JIT submitted a detailed
report to the concerned court stating that the Sharif Family could not justify their income
and assets, proving that Maryam had indeed been the beneficiary of Nescoll and Nielson,
(which was identified through forgery of evidence on part of Maryam Nawaz who had
submitted the report in Calibri font, which was introduced in January 2007 for documents
said to be from 2006). The court also discovered an offshore company FZE capital in the
UAE owned by Sharifs, as well as lacking supporting records for the Qatari money trail
led to the final verdict on July 28 2017, the Supreme Court announced unanimously that
the then PM had been dishonest about his financial trail and therefore was disqualified for
running for public office for life based on article 62 of the constitution that requires holders
of public office to be ‘Saadiq’ and ‘Amin’ xci
● Asif Zardari: Pakistan People’s Party co-chairperson and Former President of the Islamic
Republic has been accused of laundering hundreds of millions of dollars via fake bank
accounts and companies that were registered in the name of poor people that were injected
with cash before being emptied. In September 2018, the supreme court established a JIT
that found at least $400 million had been transferred through these bank accounts primarily
through Summit Bank, which is owned by Omni Group, whose owner Anwar Majeed was
Zardaris Frontman. Omni Group, other government enterprises, and private firms
transferred funds to these bank accounts to gain favors with the then President Zardari, who in return for carried out favors and allotted prime real estate for a fraction of the original
prices, even free xcii.
● Jehangir Tareen: The National Accountability Board has inquired into a possible Sugar
price Scam, which they believe Senior PTI member Jehangir Tareen was at the center off.
Allegedly Mr. Tareen, who has a monopoly of over 20% of Pakistan's sugar supply, had
illegally stocked up sugar at a market price of 75 rupees/kilo in anticipation of selling the
sugar when prices would rise due to a shortage in supply. He is accused of selling the stock
at the price of 120 Rupees/Kilo at a large profit. Additionally, he has been accused of
misinforming the government by mis-declaring and providing an under-valuation of the
national requirement/demand for sugar against the supply of sugar so that stocks could be
exported for personal financial gain. Since then, the PM has distanced himself from Mr.
Tareen.
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