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Santander ― Latin America Research Handbook

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Santander ― Latin America Research Handbook Santander ― Latin America Research Handbook April 2014 Latin America Research Jesus Gomez Head of LatAm Research & Equity Strategy N A Oil, Gas & E Agribusiness Education Food & Beverage Retailing Strategy Petrochemicals T Christian Audi Bruno Giardino, CFA Luis Miranda, CFA Christian Audi João Mamede LatAm Equity Strategy H C Andres Soto Gustavo Allevato Reinaldo Santana Gustavo Allevato Daniel Gewehr Jesus Gomez R Bruno Taveira Walter Chiarvesio Andres Soto A Stefano Rizzi João Mamede Bruno Taveira E Mauricio Serna Mauricio Serna S Argentina Ronaldo Kasinsky Ronaldo Kasinsky E R Electric & Telecom, Media & Walter Chiarvesio Capital Goods Healthcare Pulp & Forest Products Other Utilities Technology A Brazil C Daniel Gewehr Maria Carolina Carneiro Daniel Gewehr Alex Sciacio, CFA Valder Nogueira I Daniel Gewehr R João Noronha, CFA João Saad Bruno Mendonça Bruno Giardino, CFA Felipe Reis João Noronha, CFA E Nicolas Schild Luis Miranda, CFA Francisco Echeverria Rodrigo Ordoñez Francisco Errandonea M Thiago Silva Mauricio Serna Reinaldo Santana Rodrigo Ordoñez Chile A Walter Chiarvesio Walter Chiarvesio N Cement & Financial | Banks Francisco Errandonea I Metals & Mining Real Estate Transportation Financial | Non Banks T Construction Mexico A Toe Matsumura / Fabiola Gama / Boris Molina Felipe Reis Pedro Balcão L Fabiola Gama Toe Matsumura Hector Chavez Alex Sciacio, CFA Renan Manda Andres Soto Henrique Navarro Ana Reynal, CFA Arturo Espinosa Rodrigo Ordoñez Jose Antonio Parra Jose Antonio Parra Nicholas Schild Bruno Amorim, CFA Walter Chiarvesio Renan Manda Renata Cabral North Andean Countries Rodrigo Ordoñez Quant Walter Chiarvesio Renata Cabral Andres Soto Stefano Rizzi Coverage List Corporate Access Latin America Research Valder Nogueira Head of Brazil Research M A E Financial | Banks Agribusiness Consumer Goods Pulp & Forest Products Transportation T Financial | Non Banks H Christian Audi João Mamede Henrique Navarro Alex Sciacio, CFA Pedro Balcão C Gustavo Allevato Bruno Taveira R Boris Molina Felipe Reis Bruno Amorim, CFA Luis Miranda A Renata Cabral Ronaldo Kasinsky E S E Capital Goods Education Healthcare Real Estate Strategy R L Daniel Gewehr Bruno Giardino, CFA Daniel Gewehr Daniel Gewehr I Fabiola Gama Z João Noronha, CFA Daniel Gewehr Bruno Giardino, CFA Renan Manda João Noronha, CFA A Jesus Gomez R B Electric & Technology, Media & Chemicals & Oil Metals & Mining Other Utilities Telecom Christian Audi Maria Carolina Carneiro Felipe Reis Valder Nogueira Alex Sciacio, CFA Bruno Mendonça Gustavo Allevato João Saad Thiago Silva Coverage List Corporate Access Latin America Research Christian Audi (Sector Head) New York, USA (+1) 212 350 3991 | [email protected] Gustavo Allevato, Brazil S S (+55) 11 3012 6042 E [email protected] N I S Coverage: Cosan | Cosan Limited | São Martinho U B I R Best Recent Calls: G Preference of Ultrapar over Cosan. Throughout 2013, we reiterated our preference for Ultrapar vs. Cosan based on the fuel distribution segment in Brazil—the A most attractive in the world, in our view—representing a much more significant part of Ultrapar’s EBITDA (close to 70%) vs. only around 30% for Cosan. Ultrapar outperformed Cosan by close to 30% during the year. Preference of São Martinho over Cosan. With an eye focused solely on the sugar and ethanol businesses, we also reiterated our preference for São Martinho vs. Cosan, driven by SMO’s stronger FCF generation as well as likely higher dividend going into 2014. SMO has outperformed Cosan by almost 10% since our post- Cancun conference report. Corporate Access: Differentiated corporate access included a well-timed roadshow with Cosan’s CFO right before the company’s Cosan Day events, which included, among other news, the information that the collapse of Cosan’s two shares into one would not happen in 2013. Coverage List Corporate Access Latin American Equities Daniel Gewehr (Sector Head) Sao Paulo, Brazil (+55) 11 3012 5787 | [email protected] S João Noronha CFA, Brazil Luis Miranda CFA, Mexico Mauricio Serna, Mexico D (+55) 11 3012 5734 (+52) 55 5269 1926 (+52) 55 5269 1931 O [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] O G Coverage: Alfa | Autometal | Grupo Carso | Iochpe Maxion | Mahle Metal Leve | Marcopolo | Mexichem | Randon | Romi | Weg L A T I P A Best Recent Calls: C Active portfolio rotation, with strong results. We initiated coverage of Mahle Metal Leve on July 18, 2013, with the stock gaining 21% in four months. The team downgraded Marcopolo in January 2013 at R$6.70. After a correction of 28%, we upgraded to Buy on January 2014. Industry benchmark reports. Daniel Gewehr has been covering Capital Goods since 2001, on both the buy and sell-side, and has a deep understanding of the industrial chain, as can be seen in his thematic reports like Weathering the South Storm—Does Expected BRL Devaluation Offsets Weaker Sales to Argentina? (February 11, 2014). The team recently created a one-stop-shop chart book for the sector, which offers a 360 º view of listed companies and its peers. Corporate Access: The best corporate access on the Street, including benchmark event Santander Capital Goods Trip. Daniel and his team have close access to management, hosting Non-Deal Road Shows/Events (and writing reports about them) with all Capital Goods companies under Santander’s coverage during 2013, namely Autometal, Iochpe, Marcopolo, Mahle, Randon, Romi, and Weg. In 2013, Daniel also conducted the Second Santander Capital Goods Trip, an opportunity to meet 21 companies/sources meetings in five days, including eight site visits. Coverage List Corporate Access Latin American Equities Toe Matsumura / Fabiola Gama N O I Mexico City, Mexico São Paulo, Brazil T (+52) 55 5257 8172 (+55) 11 3012 7414 C [email protected] [email protected] Andres Soto, USA Renan Manda, Brazil Rodrigo Ordoñez, Chile Walter Chiarvesio, Argentina U (+1) 212 407 0976 (+55) 11 3012 6535 (+56) 22 336 3358 (+54) 11 4341 1564 R T [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] S N Coverage: Ara | Cementos Argos | Cementos Pacasmayo | Cemex | Cemex LatAm Holdings | Cresud | Ferreycorp | GEO | Homex | ICA | IRSA | Parque O Arauco | Urbi C & T Best Recent Calls: N Out-of-consensus call on MRV. Taking a contrary view from the market, which did not believe in MRV’s turnaround, we reiterated our positive view on MRV in June E 2013, stating that the worst was behind MRV and that the company was approaching the margin inflection point. We called investors’ attention to the company’s solid M cash flow generation and excessively discounted valuation. In four months’ time, the stock climbed over 50% versus 13% for the Ibovespa, and as of this date, the stock E is trading 17% higher versus -5% for the Ibovespa since June 2013. C Cemex Latam Holdings: We initiated coverage of Cemex Latin Holdings with a Buy rating in April 2013. We argued that CLH deserved a valuation premium to Cementos Argos at a time when the market had an opposite view. Three months after that, CLH had outperformed CEMARGOS by 11%. Sector piece on Colombian cement companies. In October 2013, we introduced our YE2014 target prices for CLH and CEMARGOS and named those stocks our top picks in Colombia. CLH’s stock has rallied 11% since then. Corporate Access: Timely corporate access/events. Among the events we hosted in 2013 we highlight: (i) Lunch meeting with PDG’s CEO, Mr. Carlos Piani. The event took place during a critical period in the company’s restructuring process, providing timely information on PDG’s turnaround and short-term outlook; (ii) Road show with MRV’s IR Director, Ms. Monica Simão: hosted in September, when MRVE3 began to outperform the market due to improved results, the road show clarified skeptical investors’ inquiries about the company’s earnings recovery and intended pace of growth; and (iii) Road show with CEF (Caixa Economica Federal): following a period of much noise concerning the discontinuation of the French amortization system in mortgage origination, we were on the road with CEF to separate untruths from facts as well as to provide an update on the development of MCMV program.. Coverage List Corporate Access Latin American Equities Bruno Giardino, CFA (Sector Head) Sao Paulo, Brazil (+55) 11 3012 5914 | [email protected] Daniel Gewehr, Brazil N (+55) 11 3012 5787 O [email protected] I T A Coverage: Anhanguera | Estácio | Kroton | Ser Educacional C U D Best Recent Calls: E Reiterating preference for the outperformer Kroton. Bruno maintained Kroton as his top pick during the whole year, and the stock outperformed its peers for the second year in a row, appreciating 73%—even when Anhanguera’s discount to the merger’s share swap ratio started to widen. Bruno’s call was based on Kroton’s best-in-class fundamentals and on a risk-return perspective. Favoring SER and Estacio. Santander was a joint bookrunner of SER’s IPO, which rose 34% in two months. Bruno worked in the IPO and initiated coverage in December. He has also favored Estacio for most of the year, and the stock appreciated 47% in 2013. Amongst the most significant sector pieces published over the last few months, we would highlight (i)The Quality Watchman series, an in-depth analysis of MEC’s quality assessments; and (ii) coverage of main industry events: Private Education Congress and ABED’s Distance-Learning International Conference. Corporate Access: 5th Santander Education Conference established itself as an insightful event, based on presentations by nonlisted companies and industry experts, in addition to all listed higher education companies. The team also organized events with reputable industry sources. Coverage List Corporate Access Latin American Equities ELECTRIC & OTHER UTILITIES Maria Carolina Carneiro (+55) 11 3012 6682 | [email protected] Sao Paulo, Brazil Fifth Brazilian Utilities Day—Top ManagementCancun from CEO Tractebel, Latam CPFL, Conference—Top and ManagementVII AES; from EuroLatAm CCEE Endesa, Infrastructure board Enersis, & member Colbun, Utilities and Cemig, Conference AneelCorporate TAESA, in representative—March Events: and NY—Top 2014 Alupar.
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