Geopolitical Genesis
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Strategic Geopolitical Monitor Genesis 2020-2021 Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World Jack Thompson Danny Pronk Hugo van Manen March 2021 II Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 | Geopolitical Genesis | Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World Strategic Geopolitical Monitor Genesis 2020-2021 Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World Jack Thompson Danny Pronk Hugo van Manen March 2021 2 Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 | Geopolitical Genesis | Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World March 2021 The Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 was commissioned by the Netherlands’ ministries of © The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Foreign Affairs and Defence within the PROGRESS © Netherlands Institute of International framework agreement, Lot 5 (Strategic Monitoring Relations ‘Clingendael’ & Foresight). Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the Design & lay-out: Studio Piraat - The Hague authors. 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Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 | Geopolitical Genesis | Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World 3 Contents 1. Executive Summary 5 1.2 Challenges 5 1.3 Recommendations 6 2. Introduction 11 3. Methodological Overview 15 4. Global Megatrends, 2021-2030 21 4.2 Europe: Troubled or Awakening? 21 4.3 The United States: Retrenching or Rebounding? 25 4.4 Climate and Environmental Challenges: Manageable, or Existential Threat? 27 4.5 Russia: Assertive or Flailing? 31 4.6 Gray Zone Operations: Familiar Tactic or New Threat? 34 4.7 China: Rising or Stalling? 37 4.8 Conclusion 40 5. Key Actors in the World 43 5.2 Major Powers 43 5.3 Middle Powers 78 5.4 Non-State Actors 88 6. The World in (Dis)order 99 6.2 Global Trends in Conflict and Cooperation 99 6.3 International Cooperation and Climate (In)Security 117 7. Conclusion 131 7.2 COVID-19 and Megatrends 131 7.3 Major Actors in the International System 132 7.4 The World in (Dis)Order 134 8. Recommendations 136 8.2 Relations with States and Non-State Actors 136 8.3 Key Thematic Areas 137 9. Bibliography 140 10. Methodology 151 10.2 Abstract 151 10.3 Introduction 151 10.4 Methods 152 11. Annex 160 11.2 Annex I 160 Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 | Geopolitical Genesis | Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World 5 1. Executive Summary Joseph Biden’s inauguration as US president in January 2021 was greeted by the Netherlands and the rest of Europe with a palpable sense of relief. Given the damage inflicted on transatlantic relations and the multilateral system during Donald Trump’s tenure, from 2016-2020, this reaction is understandable. However, Biden’s election also raises a fundamental question about the future of US-Dutch and US- European relations. Is there any scenario in which these relationships can return to the status quo ante? The short answer is: no, there is no returning to the system is eroding. Some have even predicted that way things were before 2016. However, that is not the multilateral system will collapse. While this is necessarily cause for concern. In fact, this report possible, a more likely outcome is that cooperation views the election of Joe Biden as a potential inflec- will continue to be a central feature of the internation- tion point. It represents an opportunity that, if the al system over the next decade. Indeed, new ver- Netherlands and the European Union embrace it, will sions of multilateralism are already emerging, albeit allow them to begin the process of (a) rebalancing their often in forms that are ad hoc and prone to change. most important external relationship, and (b) better This presents new and potentially fruitful opportuni- positioning them to thrive in a rapidly changing world. ties for collaboration with different types of state and non-state actors – climate change, in particular, is The purpose of this report is to analyze why, amidst ripe for new approaches – but will also require more profound transformations in the international system, creative and effective forms of diplomacy. the US-Dutch and US-European relationships have changed permanently and to offer recommendations Second, as the current incarnation of the multilateral for what the Netherlands and its European partners order wanes, the interaction of the three global should do over the next ten years to preserve their powers – the United States, China, and increasingly interests and values. The report’s principal argument the European Union – will play a larger role in defin- is that the election of Biden offers the European ing the landscape of the international system. Com- Union an opportunity to boost its nascent status as a petition between the US and China will be the most global power, and that the Netherlands should play important bilateral relationship for the foreseeable an active role in this effort. The report contends that future. Though it lags behind the other global powers, the Netherlands and European Union should proac- the European Union has increasingly shown signs of tively seek a more equal relationship with Washing- readiness to accept a geopolitical role. Problematic ton, one that empowers the Netherlands and Europe Chinese and US COVID-19 policies have accelerated to accept more responsibility for their own security this tendency. Though the European Union is influen- and for promoting peace and stability in their region. tial enough to rank among the three global powers – Among other tasks, this will require cultivating more and this report treats it as such – it is different from flexible and adept coalition-building strategies and the United States and China. Its primary influence the development of more effective and robust mili- comes via economic and normative power, and it is tary capabilities. not a state actor but an intergovernmental and su- pranational organization, albeit one with its own 1.2 Challenges currency, judicial system, and a common foreign and The report identifies six key challenges facing the security policy. The challenge for the Netherlands Netherlands and the European Union over the next and Europe will be to convert its unique status and ten years. First, it argues that the nature of multilat- considerable influence into policies that will allow it eralism is changing. Designed by and beneficial, first to successfully compete in the rapidly changing and foremost, to the West, the current multilateral international system. 6 Strategic Monitor 2020-2021 | Geopolitical Genesis | Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World Third, as the multilateral system weakens and com- conflict. Instead, states are finding ways to compete petition between the major powers intensifies, mid- that usually fall short of full-scale war. Most impor- dle powers are becoming more assertive about tantly, gray zone operations will be a mainstay of pursuing their perceived interests. In the economic international competition over the next ten years. realm, an increasing number of middle powers, espe- Also known as hybrid warfare, these activities are cially those located in the Global South, are pursuing intended to be provocative, and even damaging, but innovation mercantilism. Such policies are designed to fall below the threshold that would generate a to enhance the ability of domestic firms and indus- military response. All the major international state tries to excel – at the expense of foreign competitors actors engage in gray zone operations, but they are – in the areas of critical and emerging technologies. generally more challenging for democratic states, Many middle powers are also pursuing more aggres- which by their very nature tend to be more open, sive security strategies, as measured by defense more interconnected, and slower to respond to spending or the initiation of non-UN sanctioned potentially subversive or harmful activities. Finding military interventions. The tendency of middle pow- ways to implement policies and procedures that ers in the Global South to draw closer to – if neces- increase the ability to respond quickly and effectively sarily fully align with – Russia and China raises impor- to gray zone operations, without damaging demo- tant questions for Dutch and European cratic institutions and values and without increasing policymakers.