The International Monetary Fund, 1980-1981 T

The International Monetary Fund, 1980-1981 A Selected Bibliography

ANNE C. M. SALDA*

IHE SELECTED REFERENCES presented in this bibliography Tcover books, pamphlets, reports, and periodical articles that describe the functions, organization, and activities of the Interna- tional Monetary Fund (IMF). Publications on the various aspects of international economics are included only when they contain material relating specifically to the Fund. Previous bibliographies in this series that were compiled by Martin L. Loftus were published in Staff Papers, Vol. 1, No. 3 (April 1951), Vol. 3, No. 1 (April 1953), Vol. 4, No. 3 (August 1955), Vol. 6, No. 3 (November 1958), Vol. 9, No. 3 (November 1962), Vol. 12, No. 3 (November 1965), Vol. 15, No. 1 (March 1968), Vol. 19, No. 1 (March 1972), and Vol. 21, No. 2 (July 1974). Mrs. Salda prepared the bibliographies that were published in Vol. 25, No. 1 (March 1978), Vol. 26, No. 2 (June 1979), and Vol. 27, No. 2 (June 1980). Although most of the Fund's official publications are included, this is not intended to be a complete bibliography of such publications.

Abalo, Carlos. "The IMF and the World Bank in the face of a new recession," Comerdo Exterior de Mexico, English edition (Mexico, D.F.), 27 (February 1981), pp. 60-66.

*Mrs. Salda, Bibliographer in the Joint Bank-Fund Library, is a graduate of Oxford University. She was formerly on the staff of the Victoria & Albert Museum Library in London.

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Abdalla, Ismail-Sabri. "The Inadequacy and loss of legitimacy of the Interna- tional Monetary Fund," Development Dialogue (Uppsala), No. 2 (1980), pp. 25-53. A slightly shorter version with same title in International Devel- opment Review (Rome), 22, No. 4 (1980), pp. 46-65. Abraham, Jean-Paul, and Theo Peeters. "La Scene monetaire internationale en 1981," in Sy steme monetaire europeen et re forme monetaire mondiale; conference organisee sous le patronage de la Fondation Camille Gutt, Bruges, Bruxelles, 4-6 juin, 1981, Jean-Paul Abraham and Michel Vanden Abeele, eds. (Brussels, Editions de 1'Universite de Bruxelles, 1981), pp. 23-68. Spanish translation with title, "La Escena monetaria internacional a medi- ados del ano 1981," in Informacion Comercial Espanola (Madrid), No. 577 (September 1981), pp. 59-82. Acevedo Gar at, Miguel. "El Sistema monetario internacional: implicaciones para los paises en desarrollo," Comercio Exterior, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Mexico, D.F.), 31 (July 1981), pp. 736-46. Ahluwalia, Montek S., and Frank J. Lysy. "Employment income distribution and programs to remedy balance-of-payments difficulties," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Wein- traub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 149-89. Paper presented at a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. With discussion. "Aid is not a long-term solution," An-Nahar Arab Report & Memo (Beirut), 4 (July 21, 1980), pp. 1-2. Discusses the problems of the developing nations and the extent to which IMF loans can help them. Alessandrini, Alessandro. "L'Intermediazione bancaria internazionale: evoluzione del passato e prospetti attuali," Bancaria (Rome), 37 (February 1981), pp. 132-39. Ali, Ali Abdalla. "Is the 'Arusha initiative' the answer?" IFDA Dossier, International Foundation for Development Alternatives (Nyon, Switzer- land), No. 25 (September/October 1981), pp. 81-85. Al-Najafi, Hassan. "Saradnja arapskih zemalja i medunarodni monetarni sis- tern," Finansije (Belgrade), 36 (January/February 1981), pp. 3-15. Altmann, Jorn. "Liquidity problems of developing countries and the Interna- tional Monetary Fund's system of facilities," Economics (Tubingen), 23 (1981), pp. 30-51. Andreatta, Benjamin. "Problemi dello sviluppo nel mondo e del suo finanzia- mento," Bancaria (Rome), 37 (February 1981), pp. 129-31. With English summary, p. 117. Andriamirado, Sennen. "Quand la 'verite des prix' declenche 1'emeute," Jeune Afrique (Paris), No. 1069 (July 1,1981), pp. 10-11. Describes some popular demonstrations in Africa against the IMF. Angell, Alan, and Rosemary Thorp. "Inflation, stabilization and attempted redemocratization in Peru, 1975-1979," World Development (Oxford), 8 (November *1980), pp. 865-86. Angelopoulos, Angelos. "Ein Interims-Vorschlag: das Recycling der Petro- dollars und die Erhohung des Goldwertes" and "Die Wahrungsreform," in

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his Zu einer nach-keynesianischen Weltwirtschaftspolitik (Wiesbaden, Gab- ler, 1978), pp. 129-55. "Arabs call for reforms at the World Bank and IMF meeting," An-Nahar Arab Report & Memo (Beirut), 4 (October 13, 1980), pp. 4-1. Argy, Victor. "The IMF system," "The Postwar experience, 1946 to 1967," "Reform proposals, Mark I: the early 1960s," "Special drawing rights (SDRs)," "Continuing crises and the breakdown of Bretton Woods," "Deficiencies of the IMF system and reasons for its collapse," and "Re- forms and reform discussions, Mark II, 1968 to 1978," in his The Postwar international money crisis; an analysis (London and Boston, Allen & Un- win, 1981), pp. 21-67, 98-115. Arnold, Guy. "Development problems and multilateral aid ... The Interna- tional Monetary Fund," "Zambia," and "Zaire," in his Aid in Africa (Lon- don, Kogan Page; New York, Nichols, 1979), pp. 141-43, 177-81, 192-98. Artus, Jacques R., and Andrew D. Crockett. "National sovereignty and international cooperation over exchange rates," Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law (Cleveland, Ohio), 12 (Spring 1980), pp. 327-39. "The Arusha initiative; a call for a United Nations conference on international money and finance," Development Dialogue (Uppsala), No. 2 (1980), pp. 11-23. Presents the general consensus of the South-North Conference on the International Monetary System and the New International Order, held at Arusha, Tanzania, June 30-July 3, 1980. Askari, Hossein, and Ahmad Mustafa. "The Distributional aspects of special drawing rights: an LDC compromise," Economia Internazionale (Genoa), 34 (May/November 1981), pp. 242-60. Atkinson, Caroline. "Top bankers call for substitution account to stabilize currencies," Times (London), February 22, 1980, p. 18. Atlantic Council of the United States, Working Group on the International Monetary System. The International monetary system in transition (Wash- ington, 1980), 45 pp. Frank A. Southard, rapporteur and cochairman; Wil- liam McChesney Martin, cochairman. A briefer version with same title reprinted in Atlantic Community Quarterly (Washington), 18 (Fall 1980), pp. 370-80. "Auf dem Weg zum Substitutionskonto? Vor der Hamburger Tagung des IMF- Interimsausschusses," Neue Ziircher Zeitung (Zurich), Fernausgabe No. 95 (April 25, 1980), p. 11. "Auftakt zur Konference von Libreville; reduzierte Wunschlist der Entwick- lungslander," Neue Ziircher Zeitung (Zurich), Fernausgabe No. 116 (May 22, 1981), pp. 13-14. Australia, Department of the Treasury. International monetary agreements act: annual reports (Canberra, 1977-80). Four reports: Financial year 1976-77; Financial year 1977-78; Financial year 1978-79; Financial year 1979-80. Ayre, P.C.I., and Subrata Ghatak. "International liquidity, less developed countries and special drawing rights," in Monetary economics in developing countries, by Subrata Ghatak (New York, St. Martins Press, 1981), pp. 115-33.

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BJ. "Conditionality and the role of the IMF," Economic and Political Weekly (Bombay), 15 (November 22, 1980), pp. 1983-88. Bach, George Leland. "Current balance-of-payments problems," in his Eco- nomics; an introduction to analysis and policy (Englewood Cliffs, New Jer- sey, Prentice-Hall, 10th edition, 1980), pp. 598-609. Bacha, Edmar Lisboa, and Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro. "The Pax americana" and "Systemic issues for the 1980s," in their Financial markets: a view from the periphery, Discussion Paper, No. 367, Economic Growth Center, Yale Uni- versity (New Haven, Connecticut, 1981), pp. 5-9, 40-55. (Mimeographed) Baird, Jane. "Michael Manley against the world," Institutional Investor, Interna- tional Edition (New York), October 1980, pp. 47-52. Discusses Jamaica's economic problems, and suggests that the time has come for the IMF to consider a softer line on Jamaica. Bakker, A.F.P. "De Beleidscondities van het Internationale Monetaire Fonds," Economisch-Statistische Berichten (Rotterdam), 66 (February 18, 1981), pp. 152-59. "Balango do Fundo Monetaria Internacional; profundas alteragoes na economia mundial nas tres ultimas decadas," Revista Bancdria Brasileira (Rio de Janeiro), 49 (November 30, 1980), pp. 17-19. Balogh, Thomas. "Oil recycling: the need for a new lending facility?" Lloyds Bank Review (London), No. 137 (July 1980), pp. 16-29. "Banks now favour the SDR option," South; the Third World Magazine (Lon- don), No. 5 (February/March 1981), pp. 77-79. Baqai, Moinuddin. "A New framework for international financial cooperation for development," Trade and Development; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 1 (Spring 1979), pp. 39-51. Barata, Jose Martins. "A Economia portuguesa a caminho da miseria: para onde vai Portugal, pelas maos do FMI e seus mandataries, desde 1976," Eco- nomia EC (Lisbon), August/September 1979, pp. 60-70. Bareau, Paul. The Disorder in world money; from Bretton Woods to SDRs, Institute of Economic Affairs, Occasional Paper, No. 61; Wincott Memorial Lecture, No. 12 (London, Institute of Economic Affairs for the Wincott Foundation, 1981), 32 pp. Lecture delivered October 22, 1981. ."SOS for SDRs," Journal of the Institute of Bankers (London), 101 (April 1980), p. 45. Bargel^me, Massoud. Die Sonderziehungsrechte im internationalen Wdhrungs- system (Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, 1981), 160 pp. With English summary, p. 154. Barrie, G.N. "The International Monetary Fund," South African Banker (Jo- hannesburg), 77 (November 1980), pp. 164-66. Basagni, Fabio. "Approaches to the prudential supervision of international lending," in Banks and the balance of payments: private lending in the international adjustment process, by Benjamin J. Cohen in collaboration with Fabio Basagni (Montclair, New Jersey, Allanheld, Osmun; London, Croom Helm, 1981), pp. 147-69.

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Batchelder, Alan B., and Kanji Haitani. "The International monetary system before March 1973," "The Present international monetary system," and "Issues and problems in the present system," in their International economics: theory and practice (Columbus, Ohio, Grid Publishing, 1981), pp. 355-421. Bauer, P.T. "The Link scheme of aid," in his Equality, the third world and economic delusion (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, 1981), pp. 151-55. Bekolo-Ebe, Bruno. "Les Mesures de 'stabilisation' du F.M.I, et le desequilibre exterieur dans les pays en voie de developpement," Presence Africaine (Paris), No. 2 (1979), pp. 13-28. Bergsten, C. Fred. "The International monetary system in the 1980s," in his The World economy in the 1980s: selected papers of C. Fred Bergsten, 1980 (Lexington, Massachusetts, Lexington Books, 1981), pp. 25-37. Originally presented at the Center for International Business in Dallas, Texas, Octo- ber 28, 1980. . "Recycling and the international lending system," in his The Interna- tional economic policy of the United States: selected papers of C. Fred Bergsten, 1977-1979 (Lexington, Massachusetts, Lexington Books, 1980), pp. 63-68. Originally presented before the Subcommittee on Financial Insti- tutions Supervision, Regulations and Insurance of the Committee on Bank- ing, Finance and Urban Affairs of the U.S. House of Representatives, April 5, 1977. . "Recycling the world's surpluses and deficits: challenge and response," in his The World economy in the 1980s: selected papers of C. Fred Bergsten, 1980 (Lexington, Massachusetts, Lexington Books, 1981), pp. 39-48. Origi- nally presented at the Annual Conference of the National Association of Accountants, New Orleans, June 16, 1980. . "Statement" and "Prepared statement," in International Monetary Fund and related legislation; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Finance, 96th Congress, 2nd Session on S. 2514 ... , S. 2271 ... , S. 1963 ..., March 31 and April 15-16, 1980, U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Print- ing Office, 1980), pp. 1-21. Reprinted with title, "The Role of the Interna- tional Monetary Fund," in his The World economy in the 1980s: selected papers of C. Fred Bergsten, 1980 (Lexington, Massachusetts, Lexington Books, 1981), pp. 49-60. . "Statement" and "Prepared statement," In North-South dialog: progress and prospects; hearings before the Subcommittees on International Economic Policy and Trade and on International Organizations, 96th Con- gress, 2nd Session, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 126-38. . "Statement" and "Prepared statement: The International monetary system; current problems and policy needs," in Oversight hearings on U.S. international monetary policies; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 97th Congress, 1st Session, November 4 and 5; and December 10,1981, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Govern- ment Printing Office, 1982), pp. 2-16.

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Berney, Karen, and Dori Jones. "China's activities in the IMF and World Bank," China Business Review (Washington), 8 (March/April 1981), pp. 47-48. Bernstein, Edward M. "Statement" and "Prepared statement: Is a return to the gold standard feasible?" in Feasibility of a return to the gold standard; oversight hearing before the Subcommittee on Mines and Mining of the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs ... 96th Congress, 2nd Session, October 2,1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 27-37, 148-60. Berthoud, Roger. "The Brandt Commission's report: monetary reforms are needed," Times (London), February 25, 1980, p. 6. Bessis, Sophie. "Faut-il bruler le FMI?" Jeune Afrique (Paris), No. 1069 (July 1,1981), pp. 11-13. Describes some popular demonstrations in Africa against the IMF. Beveridge, W.A., and Margaret R. Kelly. "Fiscal content of financial programs supported by stand-by arrangements in the upper credit tranches, 1969-78," Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund (Washington), 27 (June 1980), pp. 205-49. Bhaduri, Amit. "Renegotiation of third world debt and appropriate adjustments in international trade," in The Financial issues of the new international economic order, Jorge Lozoya and A.K. Bhattacharya, eds., UNITAR- CEESTEM Library on NIEO (New York, Pergamon Press, 1980), pp. 129-51. Bhagwat, Avinash. "International monetary stability; challenges and response," Finance & Development (Washington), 17 (December 1980), pp. 3-5. . "The Quest for successful adjustment in the world economy; a report on the Fund's annual meeting," Finance & Development (Washington), 18 (December 1981), pp. 10-12. Bhattacharya, A.K., and Michael Hudson. "A Regional strategy to finance the new international economic order," in Regionalism and the new international economic order, Davidson Nicol, Luis Echeverria, and Aurelio Pec- cei, eds. (New York and Oxford, Pergamon Press, 1981), pp. 299-317. Bigman, David. "Exchange rate management: needs, ways, and means," in The Functioning of floating exchange rates: theory, evidence, and policy implications, David Bigman and Teizo Taya, eds. (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Ballinger, 1980), pp. 279-317. Bird, Graham. Balance of payments stabilisation policy in developing countries, Overseas Development Institute, Working Paper, No. 5 (London, 1981), 50 pp. (Mimeographed) . "Commercial borrowing by less developed countries," Third World Quarterly (London), 2 (April 1980), pp. 270-82. Concludes that the avail- ability of concessionary finance through the IMF rather than commercial borrowing will be the crucial factor in determining the economic growth rate of low-income less developed countries. -. "Developing country finances, present and future," Futures (Guild- ford), 13 (June 1981), pp. 191-205.

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—. "Financial flows to developing countries: the role of the International Monetary Fund," Review of International Studies (Sevenoaks, England), 7 (April 1981), pp. 91-105. —. "Financing balance of payments deficits in developing countries: the roles of official and private sectors and the scope for cooperation between them," Third World Quarterly (London), 3 (July 1981), pp. 473-88. —. The IMF and the developing countries: evolving relations, use of resources and the debate over conditionality, Overseas Development Institute, Working Paper, No. 2 (London, 1981), 37 pp. —. "The IMF as a source of international finance for developing countries," Indian Journal of Economics (Allahabad), 60 (April 1980), pp. 393-442. —. "On using international monetary reform for the benefit of developing countries," Economic Notes, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (Siena), 10, No. 1 (1981), pp. 29-45. . "Reserve currency consolidation, gold policy and financial flows to developing countries; mechanisms for an aid-augmented substitution account," World Development (Oxford), 9 (July 1981), pp. 609-19. . "Some proposals for increasing the size and improving the nature of financial flows to developing countries," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali (Milan), 27 (October/November 1980), pp. 1038-54. . "SDR distribution, interest rates and aid flows," The World Economy (Oxford), 4 (December 1981), pp. 419-27. . "The Terms of trade of developing countries: theory, evidence and policy," Economia Internazionale (Genoa), 32 (November 1979), pp. 399-413. . "Why a new international development organization is needed," Inter- economics (Hamburg), No. 4 (July/August 1980), pp. 185-87. -, and Peter Gutmann. "Foreign aid: the issues," Quarterly Review, Na- tional Westminster Bank (London), August 1981, pp. 36-51. Bird, Graham, and Timothy Orme. "An Analysis of drawings on the Interna- tional Monetary Fund by developing countries," World Development (Ox- ford), 9 (June 1981), pp. 563-68. Birnbaum, Eugene A. "The IMF's new lending power," Wall Street Journal (New York), September 29, 1980, p. 30. Black, Stanley W. "Central bank intervention and the stability of exchange rates," in Exchange risk and exposure; current developments in international financial management, Richard M. Levich and Clas G. Wihlborg, eds. (Lexington, Massachusetts, Lexington Books, 1980), pp. 137-51. Discusses the problems of defining intervention targets in an operational way and of following the guidelines for intervention issued by the IMF. With comment by Michael P. Dooley. . "The Impact of changes in the world economy on stabilization policies in the 1970s," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Weintraub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 43-81. Paper presented at a conference organized by the Brook-

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ings Institution, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. With comments by Sidney Dell, and discussion. Blake, David. "A Crisis of identity for the IMF," Times (London), May 22, 1981, p. 19. . "Currencies in crisis," Times (London), January 3, 1980, p. 15. . "Stumbling into a new world monetary system," Times (London), Octo- ber 13, 1980, p. 17. . "Where is the IMF heading?" Times (London), October 2,1980, p. 21. Blancpain, Jean-Pierre. "New chapter for Bretton Woods?" Swiss Review of World AffairsS Zurich), 31 (November 1981), pp. 16-17. Bonnet, Nicole. "En Bolivie : La Paz compte sur le F.M.I, pour echapper a la banquerote," Le Monde (Paris), October 27, 1981, p. 42. Bosello, Franco. "II Sistema di Bretton Woods" and "Nuove struttore e nuove prospettive," in his Analisi economica e cooperazione internazionale per lo sviluppo (Bologna, Patron, 1978), pp. 99-114, 159-80. Bouey, Gerald K. The International monetary system: key issues (Ottawa, 1980), 27 pp. (Mimeographed) Background paper for remarks at the 33rd Inter- national Banking Summer School, Banff, Alberta, September 1, 1980. French translation with title, Les Grandes questions relatives au systeme monetaire international (Ottawa, 1980), 30 pp.; and Spanish translation with title, "Cuestiones fundamentales del sistema monetario internacional," in Boletin, Centre de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (Mexico, D.F.), 27 (January/February 1981), pp. 8-16. Brainard, Lawrence J. Poland and the IMF (No place of publication, 1981), 5 pp. (Mimeographed) German translation with title, "Polen und der IMF: Ein- schaltung des IMF in die Refinanzierungsbemuhungen?" in Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Zurich), Fernausgabe No. 70 (March 26, 1981), p. 10. The Brandt Commission papers; selected background papers prepared for the Independent Commission on International Development Issues, 1978-1979 (Geneva and The Hague, Independent Bureau for International Develop- ment Issues, 1981), 764 pp. "Brandt Commission proposals for reform of monetary system stress role of SDR," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (March 3, 1980), pp. 68-69. Brau, Eduard. "The Consultation process of the Fund," Finance & Development (Washington), 18 (December 1981), pp. 13-16. Brill, Daniel H. "The Changing role of the United States in the world economy," in Europe and the dollar in the world-wide disequilibrium, J.R. Sargent, ed. (Alphen aan den Rijn, Sijthoff & Noordhoff, 1981), pp. 19-36. Originally presented at the eighth colloquium organized by the Societe Universitaire Europeenne de Recherches Financieres (SUERF), held in Basle, May 1979. Includes a discussion of the changing role of the United States in the international financial system. Bristow, L. "Gold franc—replacement of unit of account," Lloyd's Maritime and Commercial Law Quarterly (London), February 1978, pp. 31-38. An amended version of a paper presented at the Seminar on International Road Haulage, held at the London Press Centre, October 5, 1977.

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Brodsky, David, Gerry Helleiner, and Gary Sampson. "The Impact of the current exchange rate system on developing countries," Trade and Develop- ment; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 3 (Winter 1981), pp. 31-52. Brodsky, David A., and Gary P. Sampson. "Gold, special drawing rights and developing countries," Trade and Development; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 2 (Autumn 1980), pp. 49-68. A discussion of the above article, by Rumman Faruqi, entitled, "The Great gold swindle," in South; the Third World Magazine (London), No! 6 (March/April 1981), pp. 75-79. . "Implications of the effective revaluation of reserve asset gold: the case for a gold account for development," World Development (Oxford), 9 (July 1981), pp. 589-608. -. "The Value of gold as a reserve asset," World Development (Oxford), 8 (March 1980), pp. 175-92. Brookhouse, Roger. "Gold is not a cure-all," Euromoney (London), December 1980, pp. 153-56. Brown, Brendan. "Manufactured currency hybrids," in his The Dollar-mark axis: on currency power (London, Macmillan, 1979), pp. 52-54. Brummer, Alex. "Oil power and politics bring a second problem to the IMF," Guardian (London), September 29, 1980, p. 15. Bruno, Michael. "Short-term policy trade-offs under different phases of economic development," in The World economic order: past and prospects, Sven Grassman and Erik Lundberg, eds. (New York, St. Martin's Press, 1981), pp. 295-313. Paper originally presented at a conference held in Saltsjobaden, Stockholm, August 1978. Bryant, Ralph C. "Supranational traffic regulations," "A 'World' instrument of macroeconomic policy: changes in outside reserves," "International coordination of national policy decisions," and "A Catalytic role for supranational institutions," in his Money and monetary policy in interdependent nations (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1980 ?), pp. 470-81. Buira, Ariel. "Polfticas de acceso ampliado, obtencion de prestamos y liquidez del Fondo Monetario Internacional," Boletin, Centre de Estudios Mone- tarios Latinoamericanos (Mexico, D.F.), 27 (July 1981), pp. 179-93. Report presented to the 32nd Reunion de Gobernadores de Bancos Centrales Latinoamericanos y de Espana, held in Montevideo, April 1981. . "Recession, inflation and the international monetary system," World Development (Oxford), 9 (December 1981), pp. 115-28. Burns, Tom. "Statement" and "Prepared statement: Two loaves of bread; the impact of the IMF-Peruvian Government economic stabilization program on the Peruvian people," in To amend the Bretton Woods agreements act to authorize consent to an increase in the United States quota in the International Monetary Fund; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 5970, February 4, 6, 7; March 20; April 1, 21, 1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Govern- ment Printing Office, 1980), pp. 58-100. Butcher, Willard C. "How OPEC can help in recycling," Euromoney (London), October 1980, pp. 50-59. Suggests that the OPEC surplus cannot be recy-

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cled by the commercial banks alone, that IMF help is needed, and that the IMF will need contributions from the richer OPEC nations.

Cabieses Cubas, Hugo, and Carlos Otero. "Las Medidas anticrisis y la presencia del F.M.I.," "Las Medidas adoptadas," "Lo Implicito en las medidas eco- nomicas," "La 'Solution'," and "Anexo IV: Documentos de las nego- ciaciones con el Fondo Monetario International," in their Economia pern- ana: un ensayo de interpretation (Lima, DESCO, Centre de "Estudios y Promotion del Desarrollo, 1978), pp. 137-46, 167-206. Caffe, Federico. "Notes on some recent transformations at the International Monetary Fund," Economic Notes, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (Siena), 8, No. 1 (1979), pp. 3-11. Cairncross, Frances. "If banks can't recycle OPEC's cash to the poor, we need to find another way fast," Guardian (London), October 4, 1980, p. 19. Caldwell, J. Alexander. "Gold: the fundamentals behind the frenzy," Euro- money (London), February 1980, pp. 110-20. , and Frederick E. Berger. "The Substitution account; not a miracle but a first step," Euromoney (London), May 1980, pp. 158-73. Cameron, Duncan. "Special drawing rights," International Journal (Toronto), 36 (Autumn 1981), pp. 713-31. Campos, Roberto de Oliveira. "Why Brazil believes it is on the right economic track," financial Times World Business Weekly (London), November 3, 1980, pp. 22-23. Defends Brazil's recent economic performance and its attitude toward the IMF. Camps, Miriam. "The Management of money and coordination of macroeconomic policy," in her Collective management: the reform of global economic organizations, 1980s Project/Council on Foreign Relations (New York, McGraw-Hill, 1981), pp. 197-253. . "The New Bretton Woods," International Journal (Toronto), 35 (Spring 1980), pp. 240-62. "Can $220 million IMF loan bail out Sudan's economy?" An-NaharArab Report & Memo (Beirut), 5 (November 2, 1981), pp. 8-10. Canada, Department of Finance. Reports on operations under the Bretton Woods agreements act and the International Development Association act (Ottawa, 1979-80). Two reports: 1979 and 1980. Also published in French with title, Rapport sur les operations effectuees en vertu de la loi sur les accords de Bretton Woods et de la loi sur VAssociation Internationale de Developpement. Carbaugh, Robert. "Special drawing rights," "Facilities for borrowing reserves," and "The Adequacy of international reserves," in his International economics (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Winthrop, 1980), pp. 406-14. Carlozzi, Nicholas. "Pegs and floats: the changing face of the foreign exchange markets," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Phila- delphia), May/June 1980, pp. 13-23.

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Chistyakov, Nikolai Evgen'evich. "Uchastie Mezhdunarodnogo valiutnogo fonda na rynke kapitalov," in Sovremennyi rynok kapitalov, Georgii Pavlovich Solius, ed. (Moscow, Finansy, 1977), pp. 146-58. Christopher, Paul. "The New man on the Interim Committee," Euromoney (London), October 1981, pp. 320-25. Discusses the election of Allan MacEachen as chairman of the IMF Interim Committee. Chrystal, Kenneth A. "The Choice of reserve instruments," in Systeme monetaire europeen et reforme monetaire mondiale; conference organisee sous le patronage de la Fondation Camille Gutt, Bruges, Bruxelles, 4--6juin, 1981, Jean-Paul Abraham and Michel Vanden Abeele, eds. (Brussels, Editions de 1'Universite de Bruxelles, 1981), pp. 303-15. With discussion, pp. 367-68. . "International liquidity and the position of developing countries in the 1980s," in Measures to strengthen the SDR: supporting papers; report to the Group of Twenty-Four, United Nations document UNCTAD/MFD/TA/12 (Geneva? 1981), pp. 1-19. Report prepared under UNDP/UNCTAD Project INT/75/015, Sidney Dell, director of the project. Cirovic, Milutin. "Perspektive medunarodnog monetarnog sistema u os- amdesetim godinama," Finansije (Belgrade), 35 (September/October 1980), pp. 655-67. Cleveland, Harold van B. "Statement" and "Prepared statement," in To amend the Bretton Woods agreements act to authorize consent to an increase in the United States quota in the International Monetary Fund; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 5970, February 4, 6, 7; March 20; April 1, 21, 1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 268-88. , and Ramachandra Bhagavatula. "The Continuing world economic crisis," Foreign Affairs (New York) 59, No. 3 (1981), pp. 594-616. The authors discuss the economic scene in 1980 and conclude that economic recovery in the West and in the world at large demands a monetary reform that has international as well as domestic dimensions. Cline, William R. "The Brandt Commission report: economic analysis and political compromise," Trade and Development; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 2 (Autumn 1980), pp. 39-48. Discusses some of the recommendations of the Brandt report, including external debt and recycling, the international monetary system, and institutions. . "Economic stabilization in Peru, 1975-78," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Weintraub, eds. (Wash- ington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 297-334. With comments by Daniel M. Schydlowsky, and discussion. . "Statement" and "Prepared statement: The Magnitude and conditions of lending by the International Monetary Fund," in To amend the Bretton Woods agreements act to authorize consent to an increase in the United States quota in the International Monetary Fund; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 5970, February 4, 6, 7; March 20; April 1, 21, 1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 128-44.

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, and Sidney Weintraub. "Introduction and overview," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Weintraub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 1-42. Introduction to the papers and proceedings of a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. Cobham, David. "The International monetary system," in his The Economics of international trade (Cambridge, England, Woodhead-Faulkner in association with Lloyds Bank, 1979), pp. 73-82. Coffey, Peter. "The Use of reserve assets in the framework of a European economic and monetary union and world monetary reform," in Systeme monetaire europeen et reforme monetaire mondiale; conference organisee sous le patronage de la Fondation Camille Gutt, Bruges, Bruxelles, 4-6juin, 1981, Jean-Paul Abraham and Michel Vanden Abeele, eds. (Brussels, Edi- tions de 1'Universite de Bruxelles, 1981), pp. 347-50. Cohen, Benjamin J. Implications of the European Monetary System for developing countries: report to the Group of Twenty-Four, United Nations Docu- ment UNCTAD/MFD/TA/10 (Geneva? 1981), 34, 4, 6, 8 pp. (Mimeo- graphed) Report prepared under UNDP/UNCTAD Project INT/75/015, Sidney Dell, director of the project. . "The SDR, the IMF, and monetary reform" and "Conclusions," in his The European monetary system: an outsider's view, Essays in International Finance, No. 142, Princeton University (Princeton, 1981), pp. 21-25. "The Transformation of the liquidity creation process" and "Ten country studies: principal findings," in his Banks and the balance of payments: private lending in the international adjustment process, Atlantic Institute for International Affairs Research Volume (Montclair, New Jersey, Allanheld, Osmun; London, Croom Helm, 1981), pp. 3-42. "Compte-rendu du premier symposium organise par le Centre africain d'Etudes monetaires sur la theorie et la politique monetaire en Afrique (Dakar) 21-24 Janvier 1980," Banque Centrale des Etats de I'Afrique de I'Ouest, Notes d'information et Statistiques (Dakar), No. 68 (January 1980), pp. 3-6. Includes address by J. de Larosiere. Cook, Stephen. "Is it better to oppose Cuba or the IMF?" Guardian (London), October 27, 1980, p. 13. Examines the policies of the rival party leaders in the Jamaican elections. Cooper, Richard N. World monetary system in the 1980s, Current Policy, No. 239, U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs (Washington, 1980), 4 pp. Address before the Foreign Trade Council, New York, Octo- ber 21, 1980. Corden, W.M. "The Dollar and the substitution account," in his Inflation, exchange rates and the world economy (Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 2nd edition, 1981), pp. 167-69. Costa Rica, Ministerio de Hacienda. Propuesta del Gobierno de Costa Rica ante el Fondo Monetario Internacional (San Jose, Costa Rica? 1981), 39, [35] pp. Costabel, Attilio M. "Gold values in carriage of goods conventions—an up-to- date review," Lloyd's Maritime and Commercial Law Quarterly (London), August 1979, pp. 326-30. "Countering the critics," South; the Third World Magazine (London), No. 7

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(April/May 1981), pp.71-77. Includes a discussion of the scheme proposed by D. Brodsky and G. Sampson concerning the IMF gold holdings, S. Burki's support for a gold development account, and C. Raghavan's analysis of various criticisms of the Brodsky and Sampson plan. Coussement, Andre M. "Why the bond market should open up for developing countries," Euromoney (London), August 1980, pp.117-27. Examines the various sources of external financing open to the developing countries, including the syndicated credit market, the external bond markets, and the IMF. Crawford, Malcolm. Currencies in a floating world, EIU Special Report, No. 35 (London, Economist Intelligence Unit, revised and reprinted, 1978), 145 pp. La Crise monetaire Internationale, Le Monde: Dossiers et Documents, No. 41 (Paris, 1977), 4 pp. Crockett, Andrew D. "The International Monetary Fund" and "International monetary cooperation since the war," in his Money: theory, policy and institutions (Sunbury-on-Thames, Nelson, 2nd edition, 1979), pp. 222-52. . "The Role of the authorities and public institutions at the world level," in Systeme monetaire europeen et reforme monetaire mondiale; conference organisee sous le patronage de la Fondation Camille Gutt, Bruges, Bruxelles, 4-6juin, 1981, Jean-Paul Abraham and Michel Vanden Abeele, eds. (Brus- sels, Editions de TUniversite de Bruxelles, 1981), pp. 215-32. With discussion, pp. 297-300. Crump, Thomas. "The Bretton Woods period and its aftermath," in his The Phenomenon of money (London, Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981), pp. 238-42. Cuenca Garcia, Eduardo. "La Reforma del Fondo Monetario Internacional: una parioramica," Informacion Comercial Espanola (Madrid), No. 577 (Sep- tember 1981), pp. 95-101. Cutajar, Michael Zammit. "Background notes on the International Monetary Fund," Development Dialogue (Uppsala), No. 2 (1980), pp. 95-112. Com- piled for the South-North Conference on the International Monetary System and the New International Order, held at Arusha, Tanzania, June 30-July 3, 1980.

Daniel, Philip. "The New recycling: economic theory, IMF conditionality and balance of payments adjustment in the 1980s," IDS Bulletin, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex (Brighton), 13 (December 1981), pp. 27-37. Danneman, Werner. "Activities of the Bureau of Statistics of the International Monetary Fund," Review of Public Data Use (New York), 8 (October 1980), pp. 251-63. Davidson, Ian. "Time to give away the IMF," Financial Times (London), Feb- ruary 20, 1981, p. 16.

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Davies, Brinley. "The Experience of the International Monetary Fund system" and "Proposals for world monetary reform," in his The United Kingdom and the world monetary system (London, Heinemann Educational Books, 3rd edition, 1979), pp. 49-70, 90-98. Davis, Christopher. Financing third world debt, Chatham House Papers, No. 4 (London, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1979), 37 pp. de Groote, Jacques. "Europe's possible contribution to world monetary problems," in Systeme monetaire europeen et reforme monetaire mondiale; conference organisee sous le patronage de la Fondation Camille Gutt, Bruges, Bruxelles, 4-6 juin, 1981, Jean-Paul Abraham and Michel Vanden Abeele, eds. (Brussels, Editions de 1'Universite de Bruxelles, 1981), pp. 281-87. de Larosiere, Jacques. "Challenges of current situation are reviewed by de Larosiere at bankers' meeting," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (April 6, 1981), pp. 102-105. The text of an address, "The Challenges facing the International Monetary Fund," delivered to the annual conference of the Association of Reserve City Bankers, held in Palm Beach, Florida, April 6, 1981. . "De Larosiere says commitment to strong adjustment policies is crucial in current situation," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (July 20, 1981), pp. 222-27. Address delivered to the United Nations Economic and Social Council in Geneva, July 3, 1981. . "L'energie et 1'economie mondiale," Politique Etrangere (Paris), 45 (September 1980), pp. 705-20. . "Exchange rates and the adjustment process," in The Functioning of floating exchange rates: theory, evidence, and policy implications, David Bigman and Teizo Taya, eds. (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Ballinger, 1980), pp. 375-81. Adapted from a speech delivered in Paris, October 29, 1979 at a luncheon organized by the International Herald Tribune and Forex Re- search Limited. . "Expanded role for Fund emphasized ... Success in channeling oil surpluses could benefit world economy," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (June 3, 1980), pp. 161, 169-74. The text of an address, "Energy and the world economy: a medium-term perspective," presented to the In- ternational Monetary Conference held in New Orleans, Louisiana, June 3, 1980. . "Le Foncjs Monetaire et les grands problemes de 1'economie mondiale," Banque (Paris), No. 408 (July 1981), pp. 807-12. Address to the Institut d'Etudes Bancaires et Financieres, Paris, May 26,1981. German translation with title, "Der Internationale Wahrungsfonds und die Hauptprobleme der Weltwirtschaft," in Europa-Archiv (Bonn), 36 (August 10, 1981), pp. 451-60. . "Fund support in underpinning adjustment programs in Africa stressed by Managing Director," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (January 21, 1980), pp. 23-28. Inaugural address to the 1980 Symposium on Monetary Theory and Policy in Africa, organized by the African Centre for Monetary Studies and held in Dakar, January 21-24, 1980. Reprinted with title, "Inaugural address by the Managing Director to the 1980 Symposium on Monetary Theory and Policy in Africa," in Monetary theory and policy in Africa

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(Dakar, African Centre for Monetary Studies of the Association of African Central Banks, 1981), pp.11-27. Spanish translation with title, "El Papel del FMI en la formulation y aplicacion de politicas de ajuste para los paises africanos," in Boletin, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (Mexico, D.F.), 26 (March/April 1980), pp. 79-84. . "Managing Director tells ACC: Recycling and adjustment must be joint, mutually reinforcing," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (May 19, 1980), pp. 145,155-57. Excerpts from an address to the Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC), Vienna, April 2, 1980. . "Managing Director tells ECOSOC he foresees sufficient resources for expanded Fund recycling role," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (July 7,1980), pp. 202-206. Address presented to the United Nations Economic and Social Council in Geneva, July 4,1980. Portugese version of the address with title, "Como o FMI ve a economia mundial a curto prazo: tres problemas graves; a inflagao, o crescimento real e o balango de pagamentos," in Revista Bancdria Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro), 48 (August 30, 1980), pp. 22-24. A slightly different version of the address with title, "Policy prescriptions for a faltering global economy," in Institutional Investor, International Edition (New York), September 1980, pp. 25, 30. . "Managing Director's address: Demographic outlook underscores urgency of adjustment and growth," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (August 17,1981), pp. 245-50. The text of an address on economic cooperation and world stability to the 24th International Seminar for Diplomats, Salzburg, Austria, August 8, 1981. Portuguese version with title, "Eco- nomia internacional: cooperagao para a estabilidad," in Revista Bancdria Brasileira (Rio de Janeiro), 49 (September 30, 1981), pp. 31-34. . "Managing Director's address: 'Grim' world economic situation presents major policy changes," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (May 18, 1981), pp. 149-52. Text of an address, "Prospects for the world economy and the role of the International Monetary Fund," to the Commonwealth Club of California, San Francisco, May 8, 1981. . "Managing Director's address ... Substantial borrowing seen as essen- tial if Fund is to meet needs of its members," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (February 9, 1981), pp. 33-36. Summary and text of an address entitled, "The International Monetary Fund between conservatism and innovation," delivered to a symposium of the European Management Forum in Davos, Switzerland, February 3, 1981. Portuguese translation of the address with title, "Conservadorismo ou inova^ao? Dilema que foi apresentado ao Fun- do Monetario Internacional," in Revista Bancdria Brasileira (Rio de Jan- eiro), 49 (February 28, 1981), pp. 27-30. . "Problems of the world economy, role of the Fund are discussed by de Larosiere in China speech," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (November 9, 1981), pp. 350-54. Address delivered in the Hall of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Beijing, October 27, 1981. . "Recycling: needs of countries compared with market capacity," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (November 10, 1980), pp. 346-51. The text of an address, "Recycling needs and the capital markets," delivered to the annual assembly of the Federal Association of German Banks, held in Bonn, Octo-

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her 29, 1980. Excerpts from the address with title, "The Role of the Fund in recycling," in Finance & Development (Washington), 18 (March 1981), pp. 12-13. -. "Universal need for sound adjustment policies emphasized by de Laro- siere at OECD meeting," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (June 22, 1981), p. 192. Remarks delivered to the ministerial meeting of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, June 17, 1981. De Saint Phalle, Thibaut. "The Bretton Woods system," "The Operation of the Bretton Woods system," and "Role of the International Monetary Fund," in his Trade, inflation and the dollar (New York and Oxford, Oxford Univer- sity Press, 1981), pp. 106-23, 170-72. de Vries, Margaret G. "Economic shocks of 1970s viewed as signs of profound change in world relationships," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (January 7, 1980), pp. 1-5. de Vries, Rimmer. "International economic issues and priorities," World Fi- nancial Markets, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company (New York), December 1980, pp. 1-13. Paper submitted to the Congressional Economic Confer- ence, Washington, December 10, 1980. Another version, with title, "Ur- gent tasks on the international scene," published in Challenge (Armonk, New York), 24 (March/April 1981), pp. 42-49. de Vries, Tom. "Free capital movements as a constraining force in international monetary regimes," in Europe and the dollar in the world-wide disequilibrium, J.R. Sargent, ed. (Alphen aan den Rijn, Sijthoff & Noordhoff, 1981), pp. 111-27. Paper originally presented at the eighth colloquium organized by the Societe Universitaire Europeenne de Recherches Fi- nancieres (SUERF), held in Basle, May 1979. . "The International implications of the EMS," in his On the meaning and future of the European Monetary System, Essays in International Finance, No. 138, Princeton University (Princeton, 1980), pp. 39-43. Dean, James W., and Ian H. Giddy. "An Assessment of alternative ways of averting international banking crises," in their Averting international banking crises, Monograph Series in Finance and Economics, 1981-1 (New York, Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University, 1981), pp. 35-42. Deane, Marjorie. "Worsening world problems need much better response from IMF," Financier (New York), 4 (April 1980), pp. 17-20. Dell, Sidney. "El Fondo Monetario Internacional y el principio de condicionalidad," Revista de la CEPAL (Santiago de Chile), April 1981, pp.149-61. . The International environment for adjustment in developing countries, Working Paper, No. 42, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson In- ternational Center for Scholars (Washington, 1979), 19 pp. (Mimeo- graphed) Draft paper prepared for the Workshop on Economic Stabili- zation Programs in Latin America: Political Dimensions, organized by the Center's Latin American Program and held in Washington, June 1979. A revised version of the paper with same title was published in World Devel- opment (Oxford), 8 (November 1980), pp. 833-42.

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. On being grandmotherly: the evolution of IMF conditionally, Essays in International Finance, No. 144, Princeton University (Princeton, 1981), 34pp. . "The World monetary order," Third World Quarterly (London), 2 (Oc- tober 1980), pp. 706-20. Carlos Diaz Alejandro, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, Toma Gudac, and Christian Ossa. Structural adjustment policies; report to the Group of Twenty-Four, United Nations Document UNCTAD/MFD/TA/15 (Geneva? 1981), 17 pp. (Mimeographed) Report prepared under UNDP/UNCTAD Project INT/75/015, Sidney Dell, director of the project. Dell, Sidney, and Roger Lawrence. The Balance of payments adjustment process in developing countries (New York, Pergamon Press, 1980), 155 pp. Pub- lished in collaboration with the United Nations. ."Towards an equitable international adjustment process," Trade and Development; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 1 (Spring 1979), pp. 53-66. The authors summarize the main features and recommendation of a UNDP/UNCTAD study, which reviews the experience of developing countries during the recent disturbances in the world economy. DeirAccio, Domenico. "Posizione del problema," in his Riforma monetaria; proposte per un nuovo equilibrio economico (Rome, NEMI, 1980), pp. 9^34. Deming, Frederick W. "The Future of the dollar in the world's monetary system," in Europe and the dollar in the world-wide disequilibrium, J.R. Sargent, ed. (Alphen aan den Rijn, Sijthoff & Noordhoff, 1981), pp. 243-54. Paper originally presented at the eighth colloquium organized by the Societe Universitaire Europeenne de Recherches Financieres (SUERF), held in Basle, May 1979. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos F. "Southern Cone stabilization plans," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Wein- traub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 119-47. Paper presented at a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. With comments by Ronald McKinnon, and discussion. Dini, Lamberto. "II Sistema monetario internazionale negli anni settanta: regime dei tassi di cambio e creazione di liquidita," Moneta e Credito, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (Rome), 34 (December 1981), pp. 459-71. "Diversification des reserves et echec du Compte de Substitution," "Un DTS progressivement plus attrayant," and "L'Or : illusoire demonetisation," Ramses; rapport annuel mondial sur le systeme economique et les strategies (Paris), 1981, pp. 150-57. Dizard, John. "The Flap over the IMF's market debut," Institutional Investor, International Edition (New York), January 1981, pp. 51-54. Dornbusch, Rudiger. "Statement" and "Prepared statement: U.S. international monetary policies," in Oversight hearings on U.S. international monetary policies; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, In- vestment and Monetary Policy, 97th Congress, 1st Session, November 4 and 5; and December 10,1981, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking,

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Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1982), pp. 16-40. Dorrance, Graeme S. "North-South: the need for discussion," Banker (Lon- don), 130 (April/May 1980), pp. 65-70. Discusses the report of the Brandt Commission, including its recommendations concerning the world monetary order. Dreyer, Jacob A., and Andrew Schotter. "Power relationships in the Interna- tional Monetary Fund: the consequences of quota changes," Review of Economics and Statistics (Cambridge, Massachusetts), 62 (February 1980), pp. 97-106. Drouin, Michel. Droits de tirage speciaux et developpement economique (Nice? 1977), 318 pp. (Mimeographed) Doctoral thesis, Universite de Nice. Dumont, Rene, and Marie-France Mottin. "Le Fonds monetaire international (FMI) et les finances portent le dernier coup," in their L'Afrique etranglee: Zambie, Tanzanie, Senegal, Cdte-d'Ivoire, Guinee-Bissau, Cap-Vert (Paris, Editions du Seuil, 1980), pp. 67-68. Dunn, Robert M., Jr. "Statement" and "Prepared statement: OPEC surpluses, the international payments problems of developing countries, and the IMF," in To amend the Bretton Woods agreements act to authorize consent to an increase in the United States quota in the International Monetary Fund; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 5970, February 4, 6, 7; March 20; April 1, 21, 1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 289-300. Dunne, Nancy. "IMF-World Bank annual meeting: no small change for IMF," Development Forum, Business Edition (Geneva), No. 64 (October 17, 1980), pp. 1, 18. . "World Bank-IMF annual meeting: compromise rather than battle," Development Forum, Business Edition (Geneva), No. 88 (October 15, 1981), p. 4. Duric-Bijelic, Dragana. "Metiunarodna monetarna saradnja, medunarodni monetarni sistem i razvoj monetarnog suvereniteta," Problemi spoljne Trgovine i Konjunkture (Belgrade), 17, Nos. 3/4 (1978), pp. 57-93.

Earle, John. "Substitution account: can IMF sell the idea?" Times (London), February 26, 1980, p. 17. Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Cline and Sidney Weintraub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), 517 pp. The papers and proceedings of a conference organized by the Brookings Institu- tion, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. "The Economy: pleasing the IMF," Economic and Political Weekly (Bombay), 16 (August 1, 1981), p. 1254.

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Eder, George Jackson. 'The Gold standard and its paper substitutes," in his What's behind inflation and how to beat it (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall, 1979), pp. 91-108. Edwards, John. "Coping with the deficit blues," Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong), 109 (July 25, 1980), pp. 48-50. . "The Easy-lending strategy," Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong), 109 (August 8, 1980), p. 46. Describes how the IMF has been looking at ways to give better loan terms to countries with balance of payments problems. -. "The Gulf grows wider," Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong), 110 (October 10,1980), pp. 53-54. Describes how the developed and developing countries failed to reach agreement on key issues at the World Bank- IMF Annual Meetings. Ehrlicher, Werner. "Von Bretton Woods zu einer neuen internationalen Wah- rungsordnung," in Ausgewahlte Probleme international Wirtschaftsbezie- hung aus der Sicht Japans und der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Theodor Dams and Kunihiro Jojima, eds. (Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, 1980), pp. 102-19. Emminger, Otmar. The International monetary system under stress: what can we learn from the past? Reprint, No. 112, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (Washington, 1980), 16 pp. The text of an address to a conference on the International Monetary System under Stress, held at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, February 28-29, 1980. French translation with title, "Les Tensions au sein du systeme monetaire international," in Politique Etrangere (Paris), 45 (September 1980), pp. 679-91. . "Internationale Wahrungsentwicklung und Stabilitatspolitik," in Pro- bleme der Wdhrungspolitik, Werner Ehrlicher and Rudolf Richter, eds., Schriften des Vereins fur Socialpolitik, Gesellschaft fur Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, N.F., Vol. 120 (Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, 1981), pp. 9-38. Enahoro, Peter. "The IMF in Tanzania," D & C, Development and Cooperation (Bonn), No. 1 (January/February 1980), p. 3. Erasmus, Marthinus Gerhardus. "The International monetary crisis" and "The International Monetary Fund," in his The New international economic order and international organizations (Frankfurt am Main, Haag and Herchen, 1979), pp. 43-46, 188-201. Erb, Richard D. "The IMF and world economic stability," Challenge (Armonk, New York), 24 (September/October 1981), pp. 22-27. . "International resource transfers: the international financial system and foreign aid," in Challenges to a liberal international economic order, Ryan C. Amacher, Gottfried Haberler, and Thomas D. Willett, eds. (Washing- ton, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1979), pp. 383-420. . "Statement," in North-South dialog: progress and prospects; hearings before the Subcommittees on International Economic Policy and Trade and on International Organizations, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, U.S. Congress,

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House, Committee on Foreign Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1980), pp. 86-103. —. "Statement," in Oversight hearings on U.S. international monetary policies; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 97th Congress, 1st Session, November 4 and 5; and December 10, 1981, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Fi- nance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Government Printing Office, 1982), pp. 206-11. -. "The United States and the world economy," AEI Economist, Ameri- can Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (Washington), Decem- ber 1980, pp. 1-12. Discusses U.S. policy options for 1981, including international monetary policy. Eros, Gyula. "Some problems of the international monetary system," Acta Oeconomica (Budapest), 26, Nos. 1/2 (1981), pp. 107-22. Esch, J.C.P.A. van. "Ordening van het internationaal betalingsverkeer," in his Internationale economische betrekkingen in hoofdlijnen (Leiden, Stenfert Kroese, 1978), pp. 127-60. Estevez, Jaime. "Transfer of financial resources and the NIEO," in The Fi- nancial issues of the new international economic order, Jorge Lozoya and A.K. Bhattacharya, eds., UNITAR-CEESTEM Library on NIEO (New York, Pergamon Press, 1980), pp. 3-15. "EG-Konsens iiber das IMF-Substitutionskonto; Mindestnormen fur die Ex- portkreditpolitik," Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Zurich), Fernausgabe No. 93 (April 23, 1980), p. 11. Evans, Robert W., and G.H. Makepeace. "The International monetary system" and "Bretton Woods institutions," in their Monetary theory, institutions and practice; an introduction (London, Macmillan, 1979), pp. 191-224.

Fabra, Paul. "Developing nations seek overhaul of IMF and World Bank," Times (London), Europa Supplement (October 7, 1980), p. iv. Discusses some of the moves to change international financial agencies, focusing on the conferences held at Arusha and the document, the "Arusha Initiative." . "Mutations dans la structure financiere apres Bretton-Woods," in Coop- er acion financier a intercontinental en los anos ochenta (Madrid, Institute de Cooperaci6n Intercontinental, 1979), pp. 5-31. With English summary. Essay prepared for the Colloquium on Intercontinental Financial Cooper- ation in the 1980s, organized by the Institute for International Cooperation and held in Madrid, November 5-7, 1979. Farek, Jiff. "Postavene rozvojovych zene v mezinarodnich kapitalovych vztazich," Finance a Uver, ctvrtletne pfiloha (Prague), 30, No. 2 (1980), pp. 131-36; 30, No. 3 (1980), pp. 174-92. With English summary. , and Jan Vrany. "Vyvoz kapitalu z rozvojovych zemi: pficiny, zvlastnosti a problemy," Politicka Ekonomie (Prague), 28, No. 9 (1980), pp. 929-42. With English summary.

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Federman, Andres. "IMF: small change for the third world," South; the Third World Magazine (London), No. 2 (November 1980), pp. 5-7. Feiger, George, and Bertrand Jacquillat. "The Bretton Woods system, 1945-1973," "The International Monetary Fund," "Special drawing rights," and "Amended Articles of Agreement of the IMF," in their International finance: text and cases (Boston, Allyn and Bacon, 1982 [i.e., 1981]), pp. 40-58. Fekete, Janos. "Reflections on international monetary policy," New Hungarian Quarterly (Budapest), 22 (Winter 1981), pp. 33-44. Ferrer, Aldo. "La Crisis del sistema monetario internacional: un enfoque es- tructuralista," in his Economia internacional contempordnea: texto para latinoamericanos (Mexico, D.F., Fondo de Cultura Economica, 1976), pp. 63-115. The Financial issues of the new international economic order, Jorge Lozoya and A.K. Bhattacharya, eds., UNITAR-CEESTEM Library on NIEO (New York, Pergamon Press, 1980), 229 pp. "Financing of the LDC deficits" and "Potential problem areas," World Financial Markets, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company (New York), May 1981, pp. 8-11. "Financing the deficits," Economist (London), 274 (January 12, 1980), pp. 66-67. "Finding a substitute for the substitution account," Financial Times World Busi- ness Weekly (London), May 26,1980, pp. 49-50. Suggests that the rejection of the IMF scheme will speed a multicurrency reserve system. Finger, J.M., and D.A. Derosa. "The Compensatory finance facility and export instability," Journal of World Trade Law (Twickenham), 14 (January/ February 1980), pp. 14-22. Fischer, Wolfgang E. "Recycling von Petrodollars: das Problem und einige Losungsansatze unter besonderer Beriicksichtigung der Rolle des Inter- nationalen Wahrungsfonds und der Weltbank," E & Z, Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit (Bonn), 21 (October 1980), pp. 6-7. Fisher, Douglas. "The International Monetary Fund," in his Money, banking and monetary policy (Homewood, Illinois, Richard D. Irwin, 1980), pp. 442-49. Fitzgerald, Edmund V.K. "Economic policy from 1956 to 1968," "Economic policy from 1969 to 1978," and "Negotiating with foreign capital," in his The Political economy of Peru, 1956-78; economic development and the restructuring of capital (Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 1979), pp. 222-43. Hint, David. "Some legal implications of fluctuating exchange rates," Australian Law Journal (Sydney), 54 (April 1980), pp. 211-25. Flouzat, Denise. "Evolution du systeme monetaire international," "L'Espace monetaire international," "Le Desordre monetaire international," and "Orientations en vue d'un nouvel ordre monetaire international," in her Economie contemporaine, Vol. 2, Les Phenomenes monetaires (Paris, Presses Universitaires de France, 3rd edition, 1977), pp. 298-482.

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"El FMI y el Banco Mundial: recomendaciones para crecer un poco," Comerdo Exterior, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Mexico, D.F.), 30 (No- vember 1980), pp. 1244-49. Forrest, George. "IMF: do its functions conflict?" Barclays Review (London), 66 (May 1981), pp. 25-26. Francis, David R. "IMF, buffeted over its conditions on loans, bends a bit," Christian Science Monitor (Boston), October 2, 1980, p. 11. . "Third world gains a little in money men's parley," Christian Science Monitor (Boston), September 30, 1980, p. 11. Reports on the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington. Frangois, Gabriel. "Problemes monetaires internationaux; realisations europeennes et perspectives mondiales," Revue d'Economie Politique (Paris), 90 (November/December 1980), pp. 715-29. Frankfurt International Monetary Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 1977. Do- mestic goals and financial interdependence: the Frankfurt dialogue, Randall Hinshaw, ed. (New York, Marcel Dekker, 1980), 167 pp. Proceedings of the 6th International Monetary Conference held under the auspices of the Claremont Graduate School in Frankfurt am Main, April 1977. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo. "El Sistema monetario y financiero," in his Economia internacional: teorias y politicaspara el desarrollo (Mexico, D.F., Fondo de Cultura Economica, 1979), pp. 453-64. Frenkel, Roberto, and Guillermo O'Donnell. "The 'Stabilization programs' of the International Monetary Fund and their internal impacts," in Capitalism and the state in U.S.-Latin American relations, Richard R. Fagan, ed. (Stan- ford, California, Stanford University Press, 1979), pp. 171-216. Friedman, Irving. "The Role of private banks in stabilization programs," in Economic stabilization in developing countries, William R. Clirie and Sidney Weintraub, eds. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 235-70. Paper presented at a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, held in Washington, October 25-26, 1979. Includes an examination of the relationship between the private banks and the IMF, with case studies of Jamaica, Peru, Turkey, and Zaire. With comments by Robert H. Heller, and discussion. Frowen, Stephen F. "The Interaction between the international monetary system and financial markets in the 1980's," in Financial markets in the 80's; papers from The Financial Markets Conference, presented by First Austrian Bank, die erste osterreichische Spar-Casse, November 6, 1980, at the Vienna Conference Center (Vienna, First Austrian Bank, 1981?), pp. 7-22. . "Why the IMF is increasing its role in recycling," Euromoney (London), January 1981, pp. 123-32. "The Functioning of the international monetary system, 5 May 1979," in The Brandt Commission papers; selected background papers prepared for the Independent Commission on International Development Issues, 1978-1979 (Geneva and The Hague, Independent Bureau for International Develop- ment Issues, 1981), pp. 601-607. Paper presented to the Independent Com- mission on International Development Issues by Carlos Massad.

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"Funny money turning serious?" Economist (London), 275 (April 19, 1980), p. 16. Discusses some possible developments for the SDR, and offers some suggestions for a different name.

Gan, Tjoen Hok. "Asian Finance essay: Pt. 1, International reserve asset: gold, SDR or US$?; Pt. 2, The Free gold market mechanism," Asian Finance (Hong Kong), 7 (November 15, 1981), pp. 53-57; 7 (December 15, 1981), pp. 44-52. Gardner, Richard N. Sterling-dollar diplomacy in current perspective: the origins and the prospects of our international economic order (New York, Columbia University Press, 1980), 423 pp. Reprint of the new, expanded edition published under title, Sterling-dollar diplomacy (New York, McGraw-Hill, 1969); includes a revised introduction. Gehrmann, Dieter. "Substitution account: no solution for international monetary problems," Intereconomics (Hamburg), No. 3 (May/June 1980), pp. 112-15. German version with title, "Substitutionskonto: Reformidee ohne Chance," in Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg), 60 (May 1980), pp. 231-34. Geisst, Charles R. "Currency considerations," in his Raising international capital; international bond markets and the European institutions (Farnborough, England, Saxon House, 1980), pp. 72-76. Ghatak, Subrata. Monetary economics in developing countries (New York, St. Martin's Press, 1981), 174 pp. Gidlow, R.M. "Dollars, gold and substitution accounts," South African Journal of Economics (Braamfontein), 48 (December 1980), pp. 398-414. •. "The German mark, multi-currency reserves and gold," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 78 (August 1981), pp. 129-34. . "Gold buying by less developed countries," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 77 (November 1980), pp. 175-78. . "International financial implications of the freezing of Iranian assets," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 77 (February 1980), pp. 25-29. . "Less developed countries, gold and the future of the international monetary system," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 78 (November 1981), pp. 170-72. -. "Windfall profits and the concentration of official gold holdings," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 78 (May 1981), pp. 67-70. Gilbert, Milton. Quest for world monetary order: the gold-dollar system and its aftermath, A Twentieth Century Fund Study (New York, John Wiley, 1980), 255 pp. Girvan, Norman. "Swallowing the IMF medicine in the 'seventies," Devel- opment Dialogue (Uppsala), No. 2 (1980), pp. 55-74. Examines three case studies of the relationship between the IMF and Jamaica, Peru, and Portugal.

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, and Richard Bernal. "The IMF and the third world: the case of Jamaica, 1974-80," Development Dialogue (Uppsala), No. 2 (1980), pp. 113-55. Gisselquist, David. "The International Monetary Fund," "Plans for postwar multinational lending institutions," "Getting money to lend through the IMF and the World Bank," and "The Role of the International Mone- tary Fund," in The Political economics of international bank lending (New York, Praeger, 1981), pp. 26-29, 95-97, 100-101, 196-228. . "Private banks and the International Monetary Fund," in his Oil prices and trade deficits: U.S. conflicts with Japan and West Germany (New York, Praeger, 1979), pp. 119-24. Gleske, Leonhard. "Internationaler Wahrungsfonds: neue Aufgabenstellung in einer Welt der Ungleichgewichte," Auszilge aus Presseartikeln, Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt am Main), No. 3 (January 7, 1981), pp. 1-3. Re- printed from Handelsblatt Wirtschafts- undFinanzzeitung (Diisseldorf), De- cember 31, 1980. Global monetary anarchy; perspectives on restoring stability, Randall Hinshaw, ed. (Beverly Hills and London, Sage Publications, 1981), 200 pp. Pro- ceedings of a conference held in Claremont, California, October 1978, under the auspices of the Claremont Graduate School. "Glossary of terms and concepts related to the special drawing right," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (January 26, 1981), pp. 22-24. Go, Evelyn. International reserves: factors determining needs and adequacy, Economic Staff Paper, No. 1, Asian Development Bank (Manila, 1981), 34pp. Gold, Joseph. "Balance of payments transactions of the International Mone- tary Fund," in International financial law: lending, capital transfers and institutions, Robert S. Rendell, ed. (London, Euromoney Publications, 1980), pp. 237-50. . La Conditionnalite, Serie des Brochures, No. 31-F, International Mon- etary Fund (Washington, 1979), 57 pp., and Condicionalidad, Serie de Folletos, No. 31-S, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1979), 57 pp. French and Spanish translations of his Conditionality, Pamphlet Series, No. 31, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1979), 51 pp. . "Development of the SDR as reserve asset, unit of account and denom- inator: a survey," George Washington Journal of International Law and Economics (Washington), 16, No. 1 (1981), pp. 1-64. . Financial assistance by the International Monetary Fund: law and practice, Pamphlet Series, No. 27, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 2nd edition, 1980), 57 pp. . "The Fund Agreement in the courts—XV-XVII," Staff Papers, Inter- national Monetary Fund (Washington), 27 (September 1980), pp. 601-24; 28 (June 1981), pp. 411-36; 28 (December 1981), pp. 728-59. . "Gold in international monetary law: change, uncertainty and ambigu- ity," Journal of International Law and Economics (Washington), 15 (1981), pp. 323-70. A revised and enlarged version of his "El Cambiante papel del oro in el derecho monetario internacional," Juridica (Mexico, D.F.), 12 (1980), pp. 237-80.

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. "Keynes and the Articles of the Fund," Finance & Development (Wash- ington), 18 (September 1981), pp. 38-42. Reviews Volumes XXV and XXVI of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Donald Mog- gridge, ed. (London, Macmillan, 1980). . "Keynes on legal problems of international organization," Connecticut Law Review (West Hartford, Connecticut), 14, No. 1 (Fall 1981), pp. 1-21. . The Legal character of the Fund's stand-by arrangements and why it matters, Pamphlet Series, No. 35, International Monetary Fund (Washing- ton, 1980), 53 pp. French translation with title, L'Importance du caractere juridique des accords de confirmation du Fonds, Serie des Brochures, No. 35-F, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 59 pp.; and Spanish translation with title, La Naturaleza juridica de los acuerdos de derecho de giro del Fondo y su trascendencia, Serie de Folletos, No. 35-S, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 53 pp. . The Multilateral system of payments: Keynes, convertibility and the Inter- national Monetary Fund's Articles of Agreement, Occasional Paper, No. 6, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1981), 31 pp. . "The Origins of weighted voting power in the Fund," Finance & Devel- opment (Washington), 18 (March 1981), pp. 25-28. . "Professor Verwey, the International Monetary Fund and developing countries," Indian Journal of International Law (New Delhi), 21 (October/ December 1981), pp. 497-512. Examines some comments by Professor Wil D. Verwey on the law and practice of the International Monetary Fund in his article entitled, "The New international economic order and the realization of the right to development and welfare: a legal survey," in Indian Journal of International Law (New Delhi), 21 (January/March 1981), pp. 1-78. . "The Relationship between the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank," Creighton Law Review (Omaha, Nebraska), 15, No. 2 (1981/1982), pp. 499-521. . The Rule of law in the International Monetary Fund, Pamphlet Series, No. 32, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 96 pp. French translation with title, La Primaute du droit au Fonds Monetaire Inter- national, Serie des Brochures, No. 32-F, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 108 pp. . SDRs, currencies, and gold: fifth survey of new legal developments, Pamphlet Series, No. 36, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1981), 122 pp. . SDRs, currencies, and gold: fourth survey of new legal developments, Pamphlet Series, No. 33, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 136 pp. French translation with title, DTS, monnaies et or: quatrieme expose sur les changements intervenus dans le domaine juridique, Serie des Brochures, No. 33-F, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 143 pp.; and Spanish translation with title, Derechos especiales de giro, monedas y oro: cuarta resena y examen de nuevos acontecimientosjuridicos, Serie de Folletos, No. 33-S, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 149 pp.

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. "Substitution in the international monetary system," Case Western Re- serve Journal of International Law (Cleveland, Ohio), 12 (Spring 1980), pp. 265-326. . "Symmetry as a legal objective of the international monetary system," New York University Journal of International Law and Politics (New York), 12 (Winter 1980), pp. 423-77. . "Transformations of the International Monetary Fund," Columbia Jour- nal of International Law (New York), 20, No. 2 (1981), pp. 227-41. The text of an address, delivered at Columbia University, February 23, 1982, when the author was awarded the Silver Medal of the School of International and Public Affairs. Gonzalez Garcia, Leovigildo. Problemdtica monetaria (Asuncion, Comuneros, 1972-76 [i.e., 1976-78]), 3 vols. Goreux, Louis M. Compensatory financing facility, Pamphlet Series, No. 34, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 84 pp. French translation with title, Le Mecanisme de financement compensatoire, Serie des Bro- chures, No. 34-F, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1980), 90 pp.; and Spanish translation with title, Servicio de financiamiento compen- satorio, Serie de Folletos, No. 34-S, International Monetary Fund (Wash- ington, 1980), 88 pp. Gorman, Derek. "A New role for the IMF?" Barclays Review (London), 66 (May 1981), pp. 31-35. Gray, Jean M. "The IMF's dollar substitution account," Challenge (White Plains, New York), 22 (January/February 1980), pp. 51-53. Green, Rosario. "Trends of public external debt of developing countries," in The Financial issues of the new international economic order, Jorge Lozoya and A.K. Bhattacharya, eds., UNITAR-CEESTEM Library on NIEO (New York, Pergamon Press, 1980), pp. 115-28. Gretton, John. "IMF in a mess?" Pakistan Economist (Karachi), 21 (April 4, 1981), pp. 20-21. Griffith-Jones, Stephany. "Alternatives to the IMF," South; the Third World Magazine (London), No. 2 (November 1980), p. 11. Examines Brazilian economic expansion, and suggests that it offers a successful alternative to IMF policies. . The Evolution of external finance, economic policy and development in Chile, 1973-78, Discussion Paper, No. 160, Institute of Development Stud- ies at the University of Sussex (Brighton, 1981), 61 pp. . "The Growth of multinational banking, the Eurocurrency market and their effects on developing countries," Journal of Development Studies (London), 16 (January 1980), pp. 204-23. Includes an examination of developing countries' financing in the 1970s, and the connection between credit from the private multinational banks to the debtor countries and IMF conditionally. ."Los Problemas monetarios y financierias internacionales y los paises en desarrollo," Comer do Exterior, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Mexico, D.F.), 30 (April 1980), pp. 310-15.

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Grjebine, Andre. "La Reforme evolutive du systeme monetaire international : 1, Du flottement des monnaies aux changes ajustables; 2, Le DTS, embryon d'une monnaie exclusivement internationale; 3, De 1'assistance financiere aux pays en difficulte a une politique monetaire mondiale," in his La Nou- velle economic internationale; de la crise mondiale au developpement auto- centre (Paris, Presses Universitaires de France, 1980), pp. 232-85. Group of Thirty. Balance-of-payments problems of developing countries; a report by a study group of the Group of Thirty (New York, 1981), 36 pp. Jacques J. Polak, chairman of study group. A discussion of some of the group's findings with title, "Group of 30 reports developing countries need longer term financing for adjustment programs," in IMF Survey (Washing- ton), 10 (July 6, 1981), pp. 201-202. . The Outlook for international bank lending: a survey of opinion among leading international bankers; compiled and edited by M.S. Mendelsohn for the Study Group on Capital Movements and the Growth of International Indebtedness of the Group of Thirty (New York, 1981), 51 pp. Group of Thirty, Reserve Assets Study Group. Towards a less unstable international monetary system (New York, 1980), 19 pp. Includes a discussion of the proposal to establish an SDR substitution account, and possible supplementary or alternative measures. "Group of 30 sees urgent need for substitution account plan," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (March 3, 1980), pp. 71-74. Grubel, Herbert G. "Centrally created reserves and the IMF," in his Inter- national economics (Homewood, Illinois, Richard D. Irwin, 1981), pp. 528-60. Gualandri, Elisabetta. "II 'Credito totale interne' e la evoluzione dei controlli creditizi del Fondo Monetario Internazionale, " Studi Economici (Naples), 36, New Series, No. 14 (1981), pp. 31-85. Guindey, Guillaume. Reflections on the international monetary system (Washing- ton, Per Jacobsson Foundation, 1980), 28 pp. Lecture delivered in the Auditorium of the Bank for International Settlements, Basle, June 8,1980. With a commentary by Charles A. Coombs. Guitian, Manuel. "Fund conditionality and the international adjustment process: Pt. 1, The early period 1950-70; Pt. 2, The changing environment of the 1970s; Pt. 3, A look into the 1980s," Finance & Development (Washing- ton), 17 (December 1980), pp. 23-27; 18 (March 1981), pp. 8-11; 18 (June 1981), pp. 14-17. . Fund conditionality: evolution of principles and practices, Pamphlet Se- ries, No. 38, International Monetary Fund (Washington, 1981), 50 pp. This paper evolved from a series of articles entitled, "Fund conditionality and the international adjustment process," published in Finance & Development (Washington), 17 (December 1980), pp. 23-27; 18 (March 1981), pp. 8-11; 18 (June 1981), pp. 14-17. Guitton, Henri, and Gerard Bramoulle. "Les Accords de Bretton-Woods," "L'Evolution du systeme de Bretton-Woods," and "La Reforme du systeme monetaire international," in their La Monnaie (Paris, Dalloz, 4th edition, 1978), pp. 566-85.

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Gulati, I.S. Cooperative monetary action: a few suggestions for the developing countries, Working Paper, No. 135, Centre for Development Studies (Ulloor, Trivandrum, India), October 1981, 19 pp. (Mimeographed) . "IMF bearer bonds: do they portend much?" Economic and Political Weekly (Bombay), 16 (May 23, 1981), pp. 950-52. . "IMF loan: in deep waters," Economic and Political Weekly (Bombay), 16 (December 19, 1981), pp. 2077-78. -. "New substitution account proposal," Economic and Political Weekly (Bombay), 15 (April 19, 1980), pp. 743-48. Guru, D.D. "International monetary system, second amendment, and developing countries, Pts. 1-2," Economic Affairs (Calcutta), 24 (August/ September 1979), pp. 231-40; 24 (October/December 1979), pp. 273-76. Gurwin, Larry, and Stanley Wilson. "How big a splash will China make?" Institutional Investor, International Edition (New York), September 1980, pp. 173-80. The advantages for China of membership in the IMF and the World Bank are discussed. Guth, Wilfried. "Do the Euromarkets need controlling?" Intereconomics (Ham- burg), No. 2 (March/April 1980), pp. 69-71. Discusses the possibility of closer cooperation between the IMF and the banks in the surveillance of the Euromarkets. -. "Neue Herausforderungen an das internationale Finanzsystem," IFO- Studien (Berlin), 27, Nos. 2/3 (1981), pp. 215-30.

Haberer, Jean-Yves. "Systeme monetaire europeen et systeme monetaire international," Banque (Paris), No. 398 (September 1980), pp. 935-41. Spanish translation with title, "Sistema monetario europeo y sistema monetario internacional," in Revista Bancaria (Mexico, D.F.), 29 (September 1981), pp. 19-27. Haberler, Gottfried. "The Dollar in the world economy: recent developments in perspective," in Contemporary economic problems, 1980, William Fellner, project director (Washington, American Enterprise Institute for Public Pol- icy Research, 1980), pp. 135-65. ."The Experience with managed floating," in Global monetary anarchy; perspectives on restoring stability, Randall Hinshaw, ed. (Beverly Hills and London, Sage Publications, 1981), pp. 107-41. Paper presented at a conference held in Claremont, California, October 1978, under the auspices of the Claremont Graduate School. With discussion. Habermeier, Walter O. "Substitution account plan sought to enhance SDR, help stabilize composition of exchange reserves," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (February 4, 1980), pp. 33, 42-44. Adapted from the author's article in German entitled, "Das geplante Substitutionskonto des IWF," in Zeitschrift fiir das gesamte Kreditwesen (Frankfurt am Main), 33 (February 1, 1980), pp. 86-88.

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Ketting, A. "De tweede Statutenwijziging van het Internationale Monetaire Fonds," Economisch-Statistische Berichten (Rotterdam), 65 (April 9,1980), pp. 397-403. Keynes, John Maynard. The Collected writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. 25, Activities 1940-1944: Shaping the post-war world; the Clearing Union, Donald Moggridge, ed. (London, Macmillan for the Royal Economic Soci- ety, 1980), 522 pp. . The Collected writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. 26, Activities 1941-1946: Shaping the post-war world; Bretton Woods and reparations, Donald Moggridge, ed. (London, Macmillan for the Royal Economic Soci- ety, 1980), 453 pp. Killick, Tony. The IMF and economic management in Kenya, Working Paper, No. 4, Overseas Development Institute (London, 1981), 62 pp. (Mimeo- graphed) . IMF stabilisation programmes, Working Paper, No. 6, Overseas Devel- opment Institute (London, 1981), 56 pp. (Mimeographed) -. 'The Valuable new role awaiting the IMF: breaking the economic log jam," Times (London), October 2, 1981, p. iv. Kincaid, G. Russell. "Conditionality and the use of Fund resources: Jamaica," Finance & Development (Washington), 18 (June 1981), pp. 18-21. . "Fund's assistance to Jamaica has sought to check decline and restore economic growth," IMF Survey (Washington), 9 (December 15, 1980), pp. 378-82. Kindleberger, Charles P. "The International monetary system," in his Interna- tional money: a collection of essays (London, Allen & Unwin, 1981), pp. 281-300. The E.S. Woodward lectures, given at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, March 1976; also published separately by the University. . International money; a collection of essays (London, Allen & Unwin, 1981), 341 pp. Contains 22 essays, originally published 1966-76. Kiri{escu, Costin C. "Imperativul unei cooperari financiare sporite pe plan international: Reuniunile din Gabon (mai 1981)," Revista Economica (Bucharest), No. 23 (June 5, 1981), pp. 39-40. . "Sesiunea anuala a F.M.I. §i Bancii Mondiale: sub semnul agravarii crizei §i al adincirii decalajelor economice dintre state," Revista Economica (Bucharest), No. 41 (October 10, 1980), pp. 25-26, 29. Kitchen, Richard L. "Alternative possibilities for handling balance of payments and debt crises: a third world monetary fund," I FDA Dossier, International Foundation for Development Alternatives (Nyon, Switzerland), No. 25 (September/October 1981), pp. 86-89. Klopstock, Fred H. Implications of a substitution account for the Eurocurrency markets: report to the Group of Twenty-Four, United Nations Document UNCTAD/MFD/TA/6 (Geneva? 1980), 15 pp. (Mimeographed) Report prepared under UNDP/UNCTAD Project INT/75/015, Sidney Dell, director of the project. Also published in French and Spanish.

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Lactevic, Borcte. "Godisnje zasedanje bretonvudskih ustanova u 1978," Mefiunarodni Problemi (Belgrade), 31, No. 1 (1979), pp. 95-114. Laight, J.C. "Paper gold," South African Banker (Johannesburg), 78 (February 1981), pp. 22-24. Laishley, Roy. "Tanzania versus the IMF," African Business (London), No. 37 (September 1981), p. 53. Lai, Deepak. A Liberal international economic order: the international monetary system and economic development, Essays in International Finance, No. 139, Princeton University (Princeton, 1980), 46 pp. Lamfalussy, Alexandre. "Changing attitudes towards capital movements," in Changing perceptions of economic policy; essays in honour of the seventieth birthday of Sir Alec Cairncross, Frances Cairncross, ed. (London and New York, Methuen, 1981), pp. 194-231. With comments by Chris Allsopp, and discussion. Laney, Leroy O. "SDR substitution, the dollar or multiple reserve assets: where are we bound from here?" Voice, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas), July 1980, pp. 5-19. . "Towards a multiple reserve sytem," Euromoney (London), September 1980, pp. 127-39. Lanyi, Anthony. "External economic problems of developing countries: recent research by the Fund staff," in Proceedings, Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference on Econometric Modeling, 4th, Tokyo, 1979 (Tokyo, Bank of Japan, 1980), pp. 82-122. "Larosiere of Arabia signs up a $16 billion deal," Economist (London), 279 (April 4, 1981), p. 81.

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Laszlo, Ervin, Robert Baker, Jr., Elliott Eisenberg, and Venkata Raman. "In- ternational financial issues," in their The Objectives of the new international economic order (New York, Pergamon Press for UNITAR, 1978), pp. 104-19, 226-33. The first section presents the objectives of the NIEO concerning the reform of the international monetary system, the assurance of adequate participation by developing countries in World Bank and IMF decision making, and an increase in the transfer of resources through the World Bank and IMF; the second part reviews the position of some states and groups of states on these issues. Lau, Melanie L. "IMF aids Pakistani restructuring," International Finance, Chase Manhattan Bank (New York), March 16, 1981, pp. 7-8. Laulan, Yves. "La Grande ambition du F.M.I, et de la Banque mondiale," in his La Triche; la crise economique mondiale (Paris, J.C. Lattes, 1981), pp. 297-304. . "Recycling oil surpluses: can the banks do it this time?" Banker (Lon- don), 130 (April/May 1980), pp. 43-48. Lavrac, Vladimir. "Sistem i politika deviznih kurseva zemalja u razvoju," Finansije (Belgrade), 35 (March/April 1980), pp. 179-92. Lebedoff, Geric. "New valuation of the SDR," Business Law Review (London), 2 (October 1981), pp. 313-14. Leeds, Roger S. Co-financing for development: why not more? Development Paper, No. 29, Overseas Development Council (Washington, 1980), 56 pp. With comments by John B. Ross, Adlai E. Stevenson, Said El-Naggar, and Hugo B. Margain. Legarda, Benito. "Issues arising in making the SDR the principal international reserve asset," in Measures to strengthen the SDR: supporting papers; report to the Group of Twenty-Four, United Nations document UNCTAD/MFD/ TA/12 (Geneva? 1981), pp. 36-40. Paper prepared under UNDP/UNCTAD Project INT/75/015, Sidney Dell, director of the project. Lehment, Harmen. Konzeptefur ein kontrolliertes Floating: ein kritischer Uber- blick, Kieler Arbeitspapiere, No. 71, Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (Kiel, 1978), 64 pp. (Mimeographed) Lelart, Michel. "Les Comptes du Fonds Monetaire International," Eurepargne (Luxembourg), 11 (June 1981), pp. 9-16. . Les Operations du Fonds Monetaire International (Paris, Economica, 1981), 272 pp. -. "Les Transactions du Fonds Monetaire International : le departement des droits de tirage speciaux," Banque (Paris), No. 406 (May 1981), pp. 541-48. "LDC prospects and the role of the IMF," World Financial Markets, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company (New York), September 1980, pp. 1-12. "Libreville meetings issue," IMF Survey (Washington), 10 (June 8, 1981), pp. 165-80. Lipsey, Richard G. "Twentieth-century international monetary systems," in his An Introduction to positive economics (London, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 5th edition, 1979), pp. 671-86.

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McHenry, Peter. "Guyana and the IMF," D & C, Development and Cooper- ation (Bonn), No. 2 (March/April 1981), pp. 14-15. German version with title, "Guyana und der IWF," in E & Z, Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit (Bonn), 22 (March 1981), pp. 18-19. McKinnon, Ronald I. "Dollar stabilization and American monetary policy," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (Nashville), 70 (May 1980), pp. 382-87. Includes a discussion of the IMF substitution account and the principle of nondiversification. . "The Transition: exchange-rate flexibility and the role of foreign capital," in his Money and capital in economic development (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1981), pp. 150-69. MacLaury, Bruce K. "Implications for monetary policy of increasing interdependence," UMBC Economic Review, United Malayan Banking Cor- poration (Kuala Lumpur), 16, No. 1 (1980), pp. 4-11. McNeil, Desmond. "Efficiency and good management," in his The Contradic- tions of foreign aid (London, Croom Helm, 1981), pp. 36-40. Examines the type of leverage associated with the activities of the IMF, that which is exerted in order to foster efficiency and good management on the part of the recipient country. Madeley, John. "Demand for a second 'Bretton'," Guardian (London), Sep- tember 10, 1980, p. 16. Magnifico, Giovanni. "The International monetary situation: problems and prospects," Economic Notes, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (Siena), No. 3 (1979), pp. 23-45. Maioreanu, Coloman. Aurul §i criza relatiilor valutar-financiare occidentale (Bucharest, Editura Academiei Republicii Socialiste Romania, 1976), 157 pp. With English summary. Maizels, Alfred. "Reflections on the 'mutual interest' thesis and the impasse in North-South negotiations, I: Mutuality and conflict of interests in the North-South negotiations," Trade and Development; an UNCTAD Review (Geneva), No. 2 (Autumn 1980), pp. 1-18. Includes a discussion of the NIEO proposals on reform of the international monetary and financial system. Maliniak, Thierry. "L'Economie en crise : les tentations du F.M.I.," Le Monde (Paris), January 29, 1981, pp. 9, 13. Examines the economic situation in Brazil and the possibility of an approach to the IMF. Mansfield, Edwin. "International finance: history, problems and policies," in his Economics; principles, problems, decisions (New York, Norton, 3rd edition, 1980), pp. 786-803. Marchal, Jean. Monnaie et credit, Vol. 1: Le Systeme monetaire international (Paris, Editions Cujas, 7th edition, 1979), 250 pp. Marsh, David. "An Idea behind its time," Financial Times (London), April 23, 1980, p. 14. Discusses the IMF Interim Committee meeting in Hamburg and the plan for the substitution account. . "Ideologues on trial in Gabon," Financial Times (London), May 29, 1981, p. 16.

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d'Etat (Luxembourg), No. 8 (November/December 1979), pp. 3-4. Ad- dress to the Journees d'Etudes Financieres, Institut Universitaire Inter- national de Luxembourg, November 8, 1979. "Reflexions sur le systeme monetaire international dans les annees 80," Bulletin de Documentation, Ministere d'Etat (Luxembourg), Special Issue (May 1981), pp. 1-5. Westlake, Melvyn. "Hot days ahead in Gabon," Times (London), April 9,1981, p. 19. "What's the IMF up to?" Economist (London), 274, Special Supplement (March 22, 1980), pp. 15-21. Whitehead, Laurence. Mexico from bust to boom: a political evaluation of the 1976-1979 stabilization program, Working Paper, No. 44, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Washington, 1979), 33 pp. Draft paper prepared for a Workshop on Economic Stabili- zation Programs in Latin America, organized by the Latin American Pro- gram of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and held in Washington in June 1979. A revised version of the paper, with same title, published in World Development (Oxford), 8 (November 1980), pp. 843-64. Whiting, Desmond Percival. "The IMF system," "The International Monetary Fund," and "International liquidity," in his Finance of international trade (Plymouth, MacDonald and Evans, 4th edition, 1981), pp. 34-37, 235-39. "Why IMF bonds would be difficult to sell," Business Week (New York), No. 2658 (October 13, 1980), p. 137. "Why the LDCs bear a grudge against the IMF," Financial Times World Busi- ness Weekly (London), June 23, 1980, pp. 49-50. Wickes, RJ. "The New international economic order: progress and prospects," Australian Outlook (Melbourne), 34 (April 1980), pp. 41-63. Widman, F. Lisle. "Should IMF borrow in private markets?" Journal of Com- merce (New York), July 15, 1980, p. 4. Willett, Thomas D. "Policy research issues in a floating rate world: an assessment of policy-relevant research on the effects of international monetary institutions and behavior on macroeconomic performance," in International economic policy research; papers and proceedings of a colloquium held in Washington, D.C., October 3, 4,1980 (Washington, National Science Foun- dation, 1981?), Session I, International Monetary Institutions, pp. 24-58. Williamson, John. "Economic theory and International Monetary Fund policies," in Monetary institutions and the policy process, Karl B runner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds.; Vol. 13, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1980), pp. 255-97. Paper presented at the Carnegie-Rochester Conference held in Pittsburgh, November 9, 1979. With comments by H. Robert Heller and Jacob A. Frenkel. Reprinted in the author's "Statement," in To amend the Bretton Woods agreements act to authorize consent to an increase in the United States quota in the International Monetary Fund; hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment and Monetary Policy, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 5970, February 4, 6, 7; March 20; April 1, 21, 1980, U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs (Washington, Govern- ment Printing Office, 1980), pp. 208-43.

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enseignements de I'experience (Washington, Per Jacobsson Foundation, 1981), 39 pp.; and Spanish translation with title, Bancos centrales: las ven- tajas de una vision retrospectiva (Washington, Per Jacobsson Foundation, 1981), 38 pp. Zolotas, Xenophon. "The Case for an international loan insurance fund," Banker (London), 130 (November 1980), pp. 33-36. . On the issue of a stable international monetary standard, and other papers, Papers and Lectures, No. 46, Bank of Greece (Athens, 1981), 45 pp. Zwass, Adam. "The First Soviet statement on the IMF," Euromoney (London), January 1980, pp. 102,105.

Inflationary Expectations, Taxes, and the Demand for Money in the United Statesr—VITO TANZI (pages 155-70) This paper deals with a theoretical issue that also has some practical relevance. The issue is whether the demand for money in a country such as the United States is affected only by the rate of interest, as is normally argued, or whether it is affected by both the rate of interest and inflationary expectations. The paper argues that in the absence of taxes on income and of institutional constraints on the level of interest rates, only interest rates would be relevant, as the rate of interest would generally exceed the rate of inflationary expectations and would thus be the relevant opportunity cost of holding money. However, when, in the presence of inflation, interest rates are constrained, as they are in developing countries, and/or when interest incomes are taxed, then it is possible that inflationary expectations, rather than the rate of interest, become the main variable influencing the demand for money. The paper emphasizes that in the United States, the net-of-tax rate of return on financial assets was often lower than the rate of expected inflation (this situation has obviously changed recently). Therefore, it became convenient for people to get out of money and financial assets and into real goods (gold, houses, etc.). The paper tests the hypothesis that inflationary expectations, rather than the rate of interest, were the major determinant of the demand for money in the United States during 1964-78. The empirical tests validate this hypothesis.

Macroeconomic Performance and Adjustment Under Fund-Supported Programs: The Experience of the Seventies—DONAL J. DONOVAN (pages 171-203) The paper investigates selected aspects of the macroeconomic performance of countries that undertook upper credit tranche stand-by arrangements during 1971-80, in terms of changes in their balance of payments position, inflation, economic growth, savings, investment, and real consumption. The analysis uses both "short-run" (one-year) and "long-run" (three-year) comparison periods before and after the adoption of the program and also takes into account aggregative changes in the macroeconomic variables in question for all non-oil developing countries during corresponding time periods. The main empirical findings from the aggregative results are as follows: (i) program countries generally exhibited a significant balance of payments improvement in both absolute terms and relative to all non-oil developing countries; (ii) less progress was achieved in actually reducing inflation rates, but inflation tended to rise by less than it did in all non-oil developing countries; (iii) although there was some tendency for investment ratios to fall slightly, economic growth rates were not significantly altered on average, thereby im- plying some increase in the productivity of investment; (iv) while reductions in 352

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution SUMMARIES 353 the current account deficit partly reflected a rise, on average, in the domestic savings rate, since real economic growth was relatively unaffected, the rate of real consumption growth remained positive (on average, about 4 per cent per annum). Thus, on the basis of these highly aggregative results, it appears that program countries succeeded in achieving a significant degree of external adjustment, while the associated costs (in terms of forgone output and real consumption) appear, on average, to have been less severe than has sometimes been suggested by participants in the discussion of Fund conditionality.

Effects of Inflation Control Programs on Expected Real Interest Rates— JOHN H. MAKIN (pages 204-32) The three major findings of this paper are the following: (1) Programs of monetary restraint tend to result in higher real interest rates because when they are initially implemented, they result in surprise monetary stringency. The magnitude of negative money surprises in the second quarter of 1981 is estimated to have added two to three percentage points to both real and nominal interest rates. (2) An increase in the fiscal deficit can raise the real rate if it raises the ratio of total borrowing to gross national product (GNP), but the usual effect of a larger ratio of the budget deficit to GNP is to lower the real rate. This apparent paradox is caused by the fact that the ratio of total borrowing to GNP typically moves inversely with respect to the ratio of the budget deficit to GNP, since deficits often increase during recessions when total demand on credit markets is weak. (3) The equation estimated to explain interest rate behavior consistently underpredicts interest rates in 1981. This suggests not only that some change in underlying structural relationships may have taken place but also that special circumstances, such as the new tax incentives for U.S. business and large projected federal budget deficits in the United States, may have had some effects on interest rates.

An Analysis of Exchange Market Intervention of Industrial and Developing Countries—MICHAEL DOOLEY (pages 233-69) A simple model is presented that clarifies the conditions under which intervention policy, defined as management of the currency composition of nonmonetary debt, can be effective in influencing exchange rates. When defined in this way, intervention includes any government transaction, or set of transactions, that changes the relative supplies of official nonmonetary debt denominated in different currencies held by the private sector. This definition of intervention permits a clear distinction to be drawn between monetary policy and exchange market intervention policy. It is assumed that a government makes two decisions concerning its financial balance sheet—first, what part of its debt takes the form of base money (monetary policy), and, second, in what currency the balance of its nonmonetary debt is denominated (intervention policy). These definitions of monetary and intervention policies do not depend

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 354 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS upon the intent of the government involved, the exchange rate regime (i.e., fixed or floating), or the particular mechanisms employed to alter the government's balance sheet. Estimates of exchange market intervention activity are presented for a large number of industrial and developing countries. They show that intervention policies of major industrial countries have since 1973 generated only minor changes in the relative supplies of nonmonetary assets denominated in the currencies of industrial countries. This might account for the widely held view that intervention policies of the major industrial countries have not been a powerful force in exchange markets since 1973. However, the actions of developing countries and smaller industrial countries have generated large changes in the relative supplies of nonmonetary debt denominated in the currencies of industrial countries. It is suggested that failure of existing empirical work to establish a link between intervention policies of industrial countries and exchange rates among their currencies might be due to the failure to model the effects of third country intervention policies.

Interest Rate Differentials and Exchange Risk: Recent Argentine Experience— MARIO I. BLEJER (pages 270-79) The relationship between international interest rate differentials and changes in exchange rates has been studied extensively for the major currencies. For such currencies, interest parity generally holds, after allowance has been made for transactions costs, political and sovereign risks, exchange controls, and different taxation practices. If there is no forward market for a currency, the interest rate differential would tend to equal the expected change in the exchange rate, after allowing for the factors mentioned above, but will also include a risk premium to compensate for the existence of exchange risk. This paper considers the Argentine experience after its financial market was liberalized. It shows that for the period June 1977-August 1981, observed interest rate differentials, adjusted for exchange rate changes, do not display any pattern of serial correlation, and therefore behave as forecast errors in an efficient market. A rational interpretation of this result is that, although domestic and foreign assets are not likely to be perfect substitutes, the Argentine financial market is informationally efficient and has been characterized by an uncor- related, time-varying risk premium on domestic assets. In other words, the liberalization process in Argentina has been instrumental in promoting efficiency in the domestic financial market. Argentina, like more industrialized countries, has offered interest rates that have been tied to world market levels by, in general, accurately anticipating—and providing compensation for—expected depreciations of the peso against the U.S. dollar.

Anticipations inflationnistes, impots et demande de monnaie aux Etats-Unis — VITO TANZI (pages 155-70) L'auteur de la presente etude cherche a determiner si la demande de monnaie dans un pays comme les Etats-Unis est uniquement influencee par les taux d'interet, comme on le fait generalement valoir, ou si elle est influencee a la fois par les taux d'interet et par les anticipations inflationnistes. Pour ce faire, il examine la question sous un angle a la fois theorique et empirique. L'auteur fait valoir que lorsque les revenus sous forme d'interets ne sont pas imposes et qu'aucune contrainte d'ordre institutionnel n'est exercee sur le niveau des taux d'interet, seuls les taux d'interet agissent sur la demande de monnaie, car ils sont generalement superieurs au taux d'inflation attendu et correspondent done au cout d'opportunite, implique par la detention de monnaie. Toutefois, lorsqu'en periode d'inflation, les autorites empechent les taux d'interet de mon- ter, comme c'est le cas dans les pays en developpement, ou lorsque les revenus sous forme d'interets sont assujettis a 1'impot, ou encore si ces deux situations existent simultanement, il est possible que les anticipations inflationnistes sup- plantent les taux d'interet en tant que principale variable qui influence la demande de monnaie. L'auteur de 1'etude souligne qu'aux Etats-Unis, le taux de rendement net des avoirs financiers a souvent ete inferieur au taux d'inflation attendu (il va de soi qu'un renversement de la situation s'est produit ces derniers temps). Les gens ont done juge avantageux de se debarrasser de leurs avoirs en monnaie et de leurs avoirs financiers pour acquerir des biens reels (or, maisons, etc.). Dans le cadre de 1'etude, 1'auteur effectue des tests pour verifier 1'hypothese selon laquelle ce sont les anticipations inflationnistes et non pas les taux d'interet qui ont ete le facteur determinant de la demande de monnaie aux Etats-Unis entre 1964 et 1978. Les resultats des tests empiriques corroborent cette hypothese.

Resultats macroeconomiques et ajustement dans le cadre de programmes beneficiant de Faide du FMI : les enseignements des annees 70 — DONAL J. DONOVAN (pages 171-203) La presente etude porte sur certains aspects des resultats macroeconomiques des pays qui ont entrepris, entre 1971 et 1980, 1'application de programmes d'ajustement dans le cadre d'accords de confirmation dans les tranches supe- rieures de credit. Ces resultats correspondent aux changements intervenus en matiere de balance des paiements, d'inflation, de croissance economique, d'epargne, d'investissement et de consommation reelle. II s'agit d'une analyse comparative dans le court terme (1 an) et dans le long terme (3 ans), avant et apres 1'adoption du programme. En outre, cette analyse tient compte des varia- tions globales des variables macroeconomiques considerees pour 1'ensemble des 355

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 356 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS pays en developpement non petroliers pendant les periodes correspondantes. Les principales conclusions empiriques que Ton peut tirer des resultats globaux sont exposees ci-dessous : i) en general, les pays qui ont applique un programme d'ajustement sont parvenus a ameliorer sensiblement la position de leur balance des paiements, tant en termes absolus que par rapport a 1'ensemble des pays en developpement non petroliers; ii) les pays ont obtenu des resultats plus modestes en ce qui concerne la reduction effective des taux d'inflation, mais ils ont generalement connu une inflation moins rapide que 1'ensemble des pays en developpement non petroliers; iii) malgre une legere tendance a la baisse des taux d'investissement, le taux de croissance economique de ces pays est reste en moyenne relativement stationnaire, ce qui suppose un leger accroissement de la product!vite de 1'investissement; iv) certes, la diminution du deficit des operations courantes refletait, en partie, une hausse du niveau moyen de 1'epargne interieure. Mais, comme la croissance economique reelle n'avait guere subi de changements, le taux de croissance de la consommation reelle est reste positif (pres de 4 % par an en moyenne). II ressort de resultats globaux que les pays concernes par les programmes ont accompli des progres considerables en matiere d'ajustement exterieur, et que les couts y afferents (pertes au niveau de la production et de la consommation reelle) ont ete, en moyenne, moins eleves que ne le croyaient certains participants aux discussions sur la conditionnalite de 1'aide accordee par le Fonds.

Effets exerces par les programmes de lutte centre rinflation sur les taux d'interet reels prevus — JOHN H. MAKIN (pages 204-32) Les trois principales constatations faites dans cette etude sont les suivantes : 1) Les programmes d'austerite monetaire se traduisent en general par une hausse des taux d'interet reels parce qu'au debut de leur application ils pro- voquent un resserrement monetaire inattendu. On estime que les surprises monetaires negatives au deuxieme trimestre de 1981 ont ete d'une telle ampleur qu'elles ont ajoute deux a trois points de pourcentage aux taux d'interet reels et nominaux. 2) Une augmentation du deficit des finances publiques peut relever le taux reel si elle accroit le ratio emprunts globaux/produit national brut (PNB), mais un ratio deficit budgetaire/PNB plus eleve a generalement pour effet d'abaisser le taux reel. Ce paradoxe apparent vient de ce que le ratio emprunts globaux/PNB evolue normalement en sens inverse du ratio deficit budgetaire/PNB, puisque les deficits augmentent souvent en periode de recession, quand la demande totale sur les marches du credit est faible. 3) L'equation estimee pour expliquer le comportement des taux d'interet prevoit regulierement des taux d'interet inferieurs aux taux observes en 1981. Cela donne a penser non seulement que les rapports structured fondamentaux ont peut-etre subi quelques changements, mais, aussi, que des circonstances speciales, telles que les nouvelles mesures fiscales prises en faveur des en- treprises americaines et les deficits massifs du budget federal projetes aux Etats- Unis, ont peut-etre exerce des effets sur les taux d'interet.

Analyse des politiques d'intervention sur le marche des changes, adoptees par les pays industrialises et les pays en developpement — MICHAEL DOOLEY (pages 233-69) L'auteur decrit un modele simple precisant les conditions dans lesquelles la politique d'intervention, definie comme une action sur la composition en monnaies de la dette non monetaire, peut reellement influer sur les taux de change. Selon cette definition, il y a intervention des lors que 1'Etat effectue une ou plusieurs transactions qui ont pour effet de modifier I'offre relative d'instruments de la dette officielle non monetaire, libelles en diverses monnaies et detenus par le secteur prive. Cette definition de 1'intervention permet d'etablir une distinction tres nette entre la politique monetaire et la politique d'intervention sur le marche des changes. L'analyse part de 1'hypothese qu'en matiere de bilan financier les decisions des autorites portent sur deux points : en premier lieu, le pourcentage de la dette qui doit faire partie de la base monetaire (politique monetaire) et, en second lieu, la monnaie en laquelle sera libelle le solde de la dette non monetaire (politique d'intervention). Ces definitions de la politique monetaire et de la politique d'intervention ne sont fonction ni de 1'intention des autorites, ni du regime de change (taux fixe ou taux flottant), ni des mecanismes specifiques qui permettent de modifier le bilan de 1'Etat. Les estimations relatives aux interventions sur le marche des changes se rap- portent a un grand nombre de pays industrialises et de pays en developpement. Elles font ressortir que la politique d'intervention des grands pays industrialises n'a guere modifie, depuis 1973, I'offre relative d'avoirs non monetaires libelles en monnaies des pays industrialises. C'est peut-etre pour cette raison que, selon une opinion tres repandue, les politiques d'intervention des grands pays industrialises n'auraient pas joue un role preponderant sur les marches des changes pendant la periode qui remonte a cette annee-la. En revanche, 1'intervention des pays en developpement et des petits pays industrialises a eu de profondes reper- cussions sur I'offre relative d'instruments de la dette non monetaire, libelles en monnaies des pays industrialises. Si les travaux empiriques effectues jusqu'a present ne sont pas parvenus a relier les politiques d'intervention des pays industrialises et les taux de change entre les monnaies de ces pays, c'est peut-etre parce que les modeles omettent de faire intervenir 1'incidence des politiques d'intervention des pays tiers.

Differentiels de taux d'interet et risque de change: le cas de 1'Argentine — MARIO I. BLEJER (pages 270-79) La relation entre les differentiels de taux d'interet internationaux et 1'evolution des taux de change a fait 1'objet d'examens approfondis dans le cas des grandes monnaies. Pour ces monnaies, la these de la parite d'interet est generalement valable, lorsque sont pris en compte les couts de transaction, les risques politiques et de souverainete, les mesures de controle des changes et les differentes dispositions adoptees en matiere de taxation. S'il n'y a pas de marche a terme pour une monnaie donnee, le differentiel de taux d'interet est habi- tuellement egal a la variation attendue du taux de change, compte tenu des

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 358 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS facteurs susmentionnes, mais il comprend, en outre, une prime de risque qui contrebalance 1'existence du risque de change. L'auteur de la presente analyse examine ce qui s'est passe en Argentine a la suite de la liberalisation du marche financier. II y montre que, pour la periode juin 1977-aout 1981, les differentiels de taux d'interet observes et ajustes en fonction de 1'evolution du taux de change ne revelent aucune structure de correlation en serie, et se comportent done comme des erreurs de prevision dans un marche efficace. Par consequent—et cette interpretation est rationnelle —, meme si la substitution qui s'opere entre les actifs interieurs et les actifs etrangers n'est probablement pas parfaite, le marche financier de 1'Argentine est un marche efficace sur le plan de reformation et se caracterise par le fait que les actifs interieurs y sont assortis d'une prime non correlee et variable dans le temps. En d'autres termes, le processus de liberalisation opere par 1'Argentine aurait, dans une certaine mesure, favorise 1'efficacite du marche financier inte- rieur. A 1'instar d'autres pays plus industrialises, 1'Argentine a offert des taux d'interet qui ont evolue en liaison assez etroite avec ceux des marches mondiaux, du fait de 1'anticipation en general exacte — et compensee—des depreciations attendues du peso par rapport au dollar E.U.

Expectativas inflation arias, impuestos y la demanda de dinero en Estados Unidos—VITO TANZI (paginas 155-70) Este trabajo se refiere a un tema teorico que tambien tiene cierta importancia practica. La cuestion es determinar si la demanda de dinero en un pais como Estados Unidos se ve afectada unicamente por el tipo de interes, tal como se sostiene generalmente, o si se ve afectada por el tipo de interes y tambien por las expectativas inflacionarias. En este trabajo se afirma que, cuando no existen impuestos sobre la renta ni limitaciones institucionales al nivel de los tipos de interes, solo estos serfan pertinentes, dado que el tipo de interes en general sobrepasaria la tasa de las expectativas inflacionarias y, por consiguiente, seria el costo de oportunidad pertinente de mantener dinero. No obstante, cuando, habiendo inflation, se limitan los tipos de interes, como sucede en los paises en desarrollo, o cuando se gravan los ingresos por intereses, entonces es posible que las expectativas inflacionarias, y no el tipo de interes, se conviertan en la principal variable que influye en la demanda de dinero. Se destaca en este trabajo que en Estados Unidos la tasa de rentabilidad de los activos financieros, una vez deducidos los impuestos, a menudo fue mas baja que la tasa de la inflation prevista (esta situation obviamente ha variado en los ultimos tiempos). Por lo tanto, al piiblico le resulto conveniente abandonar los activos financieros y monetarios y sustituirlos por bienes reales (oro, casas, etc.). En este estudio se prueba la hipotesis de que las expectativas inflacionarias, y no el tipo de interes, constituyeron el principal factor determinante de la demanda de dinero en Estados Unidos en el periodo 1964-78. Las pruebas empiricas dan validez a esta hipotesis.

Resultados macroeconomicos y ajuste obtenidos con programas respaldados por recursos del Fondo: La experiencia de los aiios setenta—DONAL J. DONOVAN (paginas 171-203) En este estudio se investigan ciertos aspectos de los resultados macroeconomicos obtenidos por los paises con acuerdos de derecho de giro en los tramos superiores de credito durante el periodo 1971-80, en lo que se refiere a variaciones de la position de balanza de pagos, inflation, crecimiento economico, ahorro, inversion y consumo real. En el analisis se comparan periodos "a corto plazo" (un ario) y "a largo plazo" (tres anos) antes y despues de la adoption del programa, teniendose tambien en cuenta la variation acumulativa de las mismas variables macroeconomicas para el conjunto de paises en desarrollo no petroleros durante esos mismos periodos. Las principales conclusiones empiricas derivadas de los resultados globales son las siguientes: i) la balanza de pagos de los paises que emprendieron pro- 359

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 360 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS gramas presento generalmente una me j or a significativa en terminos absolutes y en relation con todos los paises en desarrollo no petroleros; ii) se logro menor progreso en cuanto a reducir las tasas de inflation, pero la inflation tendio a aumentar menos que en todos los paises en desarrollo no petroleros; iii) aunque la razon inversion/PNB tendio mas bien a bajar las tasas de crecimiento economico no variaron en promedio significativamente, lo cual supone cierto in- cremento de la productividad de la inversion; iv) aunque la reduction del deficit en balanza corriente reflejo en parte un aumento, en promedio, de la tasa de ahorro interno, como el crecimiento economico real no se vio relativamente afectado, la tasa de aumento del consumo real continue siendo positiva (en promedio, alrededor del 4 por ciento por ano). En consecuencia, sobre la base de estos resultados, de caracter muy agregado, cabe suponer que los paises que emprendieron programas consiguieron un grado significativo de ajuste externo, y que el costo conexo (en terminos de producto y de consumo real a los que se renuncia) no parece haber sido, en promedio, tan gravoso como se ha insinuado a veces al examinarse en diversos foros la condicionalidad de los recursos del Fondo.

Efectos de los programas de control de la inflation en los tipos de interes reales previstos—JOHN H. MAKIN (paginas 204-32) Las tres conclusiones principals de este trabajo son las siguientes: 1) Los programas de restriction monetaria en general dan como resultado tipos de interes reales mas elevados porque, cuando se inicia su aplicacion, producen una escasez monetaria por sorpresa. Se calcula que debido a la mag- nitud de las sorpresas monetarias negativas del segundo trimestre de 1981 los tipos de interes reales y nominates aumentaron de dos a tres puntos porcentuales. 2) Un aumento del deficit presupuestario puede hacer subir el tipo real si eleva la razon entre el total de emprestitos y el producto nacional bruto (PNB), pero el efecto que suele tener una razon mas alta entre el deficit presupuestario y el PNB consiste en una baja del tipo real. Esta aparente par ado j a es provocada por el hecho de que la razon entre el total de emprestitos y el PNB normalmente varia en sentido inverso de la razon entre el deficit presupuestario y el PNB, dado que los deficit suelen aumentar durante las recesiones, en que hay menos demanda total en los mercados de credito. 3) La ecuacion calculada para explicar el comportamiento de los tipos de interes predice sistematicamente tipos mas bajos que los tipos efectivos de 1981. Esto indica no solo que pueden haberse producido algunas variaciones en las relaciones estructurales basicas sino tambien que algunas circunstancias especiales, como por ejemplo los nuevos incentives tributaries para las empresas de Estados Unidos y los grandes deficit del presupuesto federal previstos en ese pais, pueden haber repercutido en los tipos de interes.

Analisis de la intervention de los paises industrials y en desarrollo en los mercados de divisas—MICHAEL DOOLEY (paginas 233-69) Se presenta un modelo sencillo que permite establecer con claridad las condi- ciones en que una politica de intervention, definida como el control de la

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution RESUMENES 361 composition de monedas de la deuda no monetaria, puede influir en los tipos de cambio. Definida de este modo, la intervention incluye cualquier transaction o conjunto de transacciones del gobierno que modifiquen la composition relativa de la deuda no monetaria oficial denominada en diferentes monedas en poder del sector privado. Esta definition de intervention permite establecer una distincion precisa entre politica monetaria y politica de intervention en el mercado de divisas. Se supone que un gobierno adopta dos decisiones con respecto a su balance financiero: en primer lugar, decide que parte de su deuda adopta la forma de base monetaria (politica monetaria) y, en segundo lugar, en que monedas se denomina el resto de su deuda no monetaria (politica de intervention). Estas definiciones de politica monetaria y de intervention no de- penden de la intention del gobierno, del regimen de tipo de cambio (por ejemplo, tipo de cambio fijo o flotante), ni de los mecanismos particulares utilizados para alterar el balance financiero del gobierno. Se presentan estimaciones de la intervention en el mercado de divisas en un gran niimero de paises industrials y en desarrollo. Estas estimaciones indican que, desde 1973, la politica de intervention de los principales paises industriales solo ha dado lugar a pequenas variaciones de la composition relativa de los activos no monetarios denominados en las monedas de los paises industriales. Esto podria explicar la idea, ampliamente generalizada, de que desde 1973 la politica de intervention de los principales paises industriales no ha constituido una fuerza importante en el mercado de divisas. Sin embargo, las intervenciones de los paises en desarrollo y de los pequenos paises industriales han originado grandes variaciones de la composition relativa de la deuda no monetaria denominada en las monedas de los paises industriales. El que los trabajos empiricos realizados hasta ahora no hayan permitido establecer un vinculo entre la politica de intervention de los paises industriales y los tipos de cambio entre sus monedas, se sugiere, podria deberse al hecho de que no se han establecido modelos de los efectos que ocasiona la politica de intervention de terceros paises.

Diferenciales en los tipos de interes y riesgo cambiario: La reciente experiencia argentina—MARIO I. BLEJER (paginas 270-79) Se ha estudiado extensamente la relation entre los diferenciales internacionales en los tipos de interes y las variaciones de los tipos de cambio de las principales monedas. En el caso de los paises industriales, en general tiene validez la hipotesis de paridad en la tasa de interes, despues de tomar en cuenta los costos de transaction, los riesgos politicos, los controles de cambios y los diferentes sistemas tributarios. Cuando no existe un mercado a termino para la moneda, el diferencial en los tipos de interes tiende a ser igual a la variation prevista del tipo de cambio, habida cuenta de los factores mencionados, pero tambien incluira una prima de riesgo para compensar la existencia del riesgo cambiario. En este estudio se examina la experiencia de la Argentina despues de haberse liberalizado su mercado financiero. Se demuestra que durante el periodo com- prendido entre junio de 1977 y agosto de 1981 los diferenciales en los tipos de interes observados, ajustados segun las variaciones del tipo de cambio, no ma- nifiestan ninguna estructura definida de correlation serial y, por consiguiente, se comportan como errores de pronostico en un mercado eficiente. Una inter-

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 362 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS pretacion logica de este resultado es que, si bien los activos internes y externos probablemente no constituyen sustitutos perfectos, el mercado financiero argentine es eficiente desde el punto de vista informacional y se ha caracterizado por una prima de riesgo sobre los activos internos sin autocorrelation serial y que varia con el transcurso del tiempo. Dicho de otro modo, una de las deducciones es que el proceso de liberalization en la Argentina ha propiciado la eficiencia del mercado financiero interne. La Argentina, al igual que los paises industri- alizados, ha ofrecido tipos de inter es vinculados al nivel del mercado mundial previendo, en general, las depreciaciones del peso frente al dolar de EE.UU. y facilitando la compensation de las mismas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution In statistical matter (except in the resumes and resumenes) through- out this issue,

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