Alibaba: Despite Big Risks, Cloud Growth Makes Valuation Compelling
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Released: 17 October 2020 Alibaba: Despite Big Risks, Cloud Growth Makes Valuation Compelling Alibaba (BABA), often referred to as “the Amazon (AMZN) of China,” is the country’s Key Takeaways: largest e-commerce, cloud, and digital • Impressive top-line and bottom-line advertising company. Its e-commerce growth primarily through increasing business has been the growth and profit market penetration and rising ARPU. engine for years, but cloud computing is • Industry leading position in large and positioned to increasingly contribute fast-growing addressable markets in meaningfully to high-margin growth in the China. future. The perception of weak corporate • Strong asset-light business model with governance, combined with geopolitical low capital investment needs in the tensions, are major risks, and November core commerce business. could be a big month considering the US • Robust financial position with ample election and the company’s upcoming liquidity to fund strategic and growth investment needs. Singles’ Day. In this article, we analyze • Trading at a significant discount to Alibaba’s business model, its market other global big tech when considering opportunities, fundamentals, valuation, risks, its superior growth profile. and finally conclude with our option on whether the stock offers an attractive balance between risks and rewards. Overview: in several global companies across various business sectors including 33% equity interest Alibaba is a Chinese company that in Fintech company Ant Group which is in specializes in e-commerce, retail, the process of going public. entertainment, and technology. Founded in 1999 by Jack Ma while he was working as Alibaba conducts its business through four an English teacher in Hangzhou, Alibaba’s operating segments: primary area of operations remains in China. Core Commerce: This segment consists of However, it is now taking significant the company’s various digital retail and initiatives to expand its global presence. In wholesale online marketplaces including its initial years, Alibaba raised $25 million China focused ecommerce platforms such from several investors and later went public as Tmall, Taobao, Freshippo, 1688 etc. as in 2014 at a valuation of $25 billion which well as cross border and global e- was then the largest IPO ever. The company commerce platforms such as Aliexpress, now provides B2B, B2C, and C2C Lazada and Alibaba.com. The segment also ecommerce services as well as electronic incorporates Alibaba’s logistics and local payment and cloud computing services. consumer services platforms. Revenue is Besides, Alibaba has also made investments generated in the form of commission Page 1 of 9 Released: 17 October 2020 charged on a percentage of sales basis growing segment. As the company is from sellers for each sales transaction on its investing in expanding its cloud business, the platform, Advertising fees charged to segment is not yet profitable. advertisers for online marketing on its Digital media and Entertainment: In this websites, logistics fees charged for shipping segment, Alibaba operates Youku, the third of goods and other software services fee. largest online long-form video platform in This is Alibaba’s largest segment, and the China, as well as, Alibaba Pictures, one of company generates 86% of revenue from it the largest movie production houses in with an operating margin of 38%. This China. The segment contributes just 5% to segment is currently the only profit the total revenue of the company and is generating part of the company. currently loss making. Cloud Computing: Through this segment, the Innovation initiatives: Through this segment, company provides its public cloud Alibaba aims to innovate and develop new computing services to enterprise customers. products and solutions for consumers. Its offerings include database, storage, Previous innovations include, Amap, the management and application services, big largest provider of mobile digital maps in data analytics and a machine-learning China, network communication app platform. Revenue is generated in the form DingTalk and Tmall Genie smart speakers. of subscription fees based on period and This segment comprises of just1% of the total specific usage of facilities. Although this revenue of the company and is currently segment contributes only 8% to the top-line generating losses. of the company, it is Alibaba’s fastest Revenue Mix 1% 5% 8% Core Commerce Cloud Computing Digital media and Entertainment Innovation Initiatives 86% Source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited., 20-F Page 2 of 9 Released: 17 October 2020 Consistently solidifying its leading market position in fast growing e-commerce markets China has led the world in terms of 2024. This secular shift towards digitization Ecommerce sales for the last few years, and was further accelerated because of the it continues to grow at a fast pace. As per coronavirus pandemic as ‘stay at home’ Statista, Chinese e-commerce revenue orders were enforced globally including stood at RMB 6.04 trillion in 2019 and is China. The same is also reflected in the charts expected to increase to RMB 10.9 trillion by below which show a sharp increase in 2024, growing at a CAGR of over 12.5% over ecommerce activity in 2020. the next 5 years. The user penetration rate of the retail e-commerce market reached 59.3% in 2019 and is expected to expand to Chinese E-commerce market trend 79.2% by 2024. The strong growth is primarily 9450 attributable to technological 10000 9289 9401 100% 8435 8925 advancements, growth in internet 8000 6573 7063 80% penetration in Chinese population, as well as consistent growth in middle/affluent class 6000 60% incomes in the country. Not only are more (RMB) 4000 40% buyers moving to online retail from brick and 2000 20% mortar stores, existing ecommerce customers 0 0% are spending more on shopping online. The 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 average revenue per user was RMB 7,063 in Average revenue per user 2019 and is expected to reach RMB 9,401 by Ecommerce user penetration Source: Statista.com Chinese E-commerce market trend 13000 40% 10892 10346 Alibaba Annual Active Users 9674 30% (in millions) 10000 8813 742 7812 20% 674 576 7000 6041 bllions(RMB) 466 10% 5047 4000 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Projected Revenue YoY growth Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Page 3 of 9 Released: 17 October 2020 Riding this secular growth in e-commerce, represents a YoY growth of 10% while Alibaba has consistently delivered impressive average consumer spending on its platform results since getting listed in 2014. In the last reached RMB 9,000. The company’s 12 months ending Q1 FY21, annual active customers are also sticky as evidenced by a customers on Alibaba’s China retail high retention ratio of more than 96% for marketplace reached 742 million, which consumers who spend more than RMB 2,000. Revenue generated from China retail Gross merchandise value marketplaces increased to RMB 358 billion during last 12 months ending June 2020 8 7.02 30% 6.59 which represents a robust increase of 33% on 5.73 25% a YoY basis. The primary drivers for this strong 6 4.82 20% growth in revenue were increase in total 3.77 4 15% Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of products traded on its platform as it attracted more 10% trillions(RMB) 2 affluent and sticky customers as well as 5% increase in take rate that includes 0 0% commission and marketing fees charged FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 LTM Q1 from sellers. While China retail GMV during FY 21 the last 12 months reached RMB 7.02 trillion GMV YoY Growth growing by 23% YoY, take rate has expanded Source: Statista.com to 4% in Q1 FY21 as compared to 3.3% in 2017. Take rate % Alibaba enjoys a first mover advantage in 4.0% the fast-growing Chinese e-commerce 3.3% market. This has helped the company gain 2.5% market share and become the largest online commerce company in China. Tmall, which is Alibaba owned online mall, was ranked the leading B2C retailer in China with a market share of 50%, almost double than that of its Jun-14 Jun-17 Jun-20 nearest competitor, JD.com (JD). Given it Source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited robust high-margin asset-light business model and strong financial position, Alibaba is well placed to further create a strong competitive moat around its business. Page 4 of 9 Released: 17 October 2020 Share of Chinese E-commerce sales Suning 3.0% Pinduoduo 12.8% JD.com 26.5% Tmall 50.1% Source: Statista.com Alibaba Cloud all set to become the future growth driver of the company Following the footsteps of Amazon, Alibaba billion in 2019 and is expected to reach RMB also launched its cloud computing business 231 billion by 2023, growing at a CAGR of in 2009, however unlike AWS which has a 35%. Currently, 4 local vendors account for global presence, Alibaba primarily focuses almost 80% of the Chinese cloud market, with on providing cloud computing services in Alibaba leading the pack with a market Asia Pacific region. While globally, Alibaba share of over 40%, more than double its Cloud ranks 4th behind AWS, Azure (MSFT) closest competitor, Huawei and Tencent and Google Cloud (GOOGL) with a market (TCEHY) that hold 15% share each. share of just 5%, the company has been very successful in becoming the largest cloud B2C retailers share in Chinese E- computing service provider in its target commerce sales market. China is the second largest public Others 21.3% cloud computing market in the world after Baidu AI Cloud the US, however it is still 1/10th of the US public 8.0% cloud market and therefore offers immense Tencent Cloud 15.1% potential to expand in the near to medium Huawei Cloud 15.5% term.