New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 63

Connected and Automated Vehicles: versus Suburbanization

Brett Swan University of Delaware

Testing has begun on fully connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Within a decade or two, fully automated vehicles will be on public roads. Just as the automobile played significant role in changing the way people lived, so too will CAVs. However, that role is still unclear. CAVs, also known as self-driving vehicles, can lead a new wave of suburbanization, urbanization, or a mixture of both. To best prepare for the intended and potentially unintended consequences of CAVs, the federal, state, and local governments must be proactive in steering CAVs towards sustainable growth.

automation. Most vehicles today fall into this Introduction category, where the driver performs all driving Just over a century ago, advancement in related tasks. Level 1 vehicles have some driver transportation technology began to aid people assistance features like adaptive cruise control, in reshaping the way they lived their lives. As but the driver is still in control of all driving the automobile became more immersed in tasks. Partial automation occurs at level 2. This society during the 20th century, people were is currently the highest level achieved by given the tool they needed to move out of the commercially available CAVs. Tesla’s Autopilot and into the where housing and is an example of a level 2 CAV currently land prices were cheaper. We are now nearing available to consumers. Level 3 includes the introduction of a new transportation conditional automation. In these vehicles, a technology - the automated vehicle. Connected driver is required, but they are not needed to and automated vehicles, also known as self- monitor the environment. The driver always driving cars, were once only imaginable in must be ready to take control of the vehicle. science fiction. Now, we need to analyze and High automation occurs at level 4. At this level, prepare for how automated vehicles are going the vehicle can perform all driving related to change the way we live our lives. If functions. These vehicles can only operate in regulations are not implemented at both the certain conditions and still may need the driver state and federal level, the proliferation of to take control. Full automation is achieved at autonomous vehicles could lead to a new wave level 5. Here the vehicle can perform all driving of unsustainable suburbanization. functions in all environments and the passengers are nothing more than passive Levels of Automation occupants (“Automated Vehicles for Safety”, There are 6 levels, 0-5, of connected and 2018). These levels are further explained in automated vehicles (CAVs) identified by the Figure 1. Society of Automotive Engineers. Level 0 is no

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 64

Timeline for connected and automated Transport Policy Institute predicted market vehicles saturation to occur around the 2060s (Litman, Important to the discussion about how 2015). Other estimations from industry experts CAVs will impact the urban and suburban tend to fall into the range of 2040 to 2060 for environments is the timeline for adoption. automated vehicles to reach market saturation. Projections for a date when fully automated Auto manufacturers have begun making their vehicles will be on the road have been wide own estimations for when they will be releasing ranging. One of the first major attempts to their self-driving cars. Alphabet Inc.’s subsidiary identify when CAVs are going to be on the road Waymo, which has also logged the most miles came from Morgan Stanley, an investment bank testing CAVs, has the earliest prediction. At the and financial services corporation, in 2013. beginning of 2018, they announced their plan to Morgan Stanley estimated that self-driving have a ride-sharing fleet of level 4 automated vehicles would reach full market saturation in vehicles by the end of 2018 (Huddleston, 2018). the mid 2020s (Autonomous Cars, 2013). Full In December 2018, Waymo carried through market saturation is the point at which CAVs with their prediction. Waymo’s One Program will be ubiquitous. As we near 2020, it is clear to now provides an automated ride-sharing service see that Morgan Stanley’s estimate was far too to a limited number of customers in and optimistic. Reasons for the delayed timeline will surrounding Phoenix, Arizona (Huddleston, be outlined later in this paper. 2018). General Motors anticipates releasing Given the complexity of not only their first level 4 CAV in 2019 for ride sharing manufacturing level 4 and 5 CAVs but also services (Hawkins, 2018). Ford predicts that rolling them out on public roads, industry their level 4 ride sharing service vehicle will not experts have been hesitant to set a hard deadline be ready until 2021 (Golson, 2018). for their prediction. These complexities include accident liability, technology costs, data privacy, Barriers to Implementing CAVs federal and state regulations, safety, limited Self-driving vehicles are immensely weather operability, and high definition complicated technology. As such, they face mapping. McKinsey and Company, a global barriers to their widespread implementation. management and consulting firm, predicted in These barriers include high definition mapping, 2016 that CAVs will reach market saturation accident liability, privacy, and costs. This is not between 2040 and 2050 (“Automotive a comprehensive list of barriers, but following Revolution”, 2016). In 2018, the Victoria sections outline some primary barriers that

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 65

CAVs face. 2018) If proper security measures are not in place, these data can be harvested by third- High Definition Mapping parties. Connected and automated vehicles face several challenges that will slow down the Cost timeline for their widespread use. First, level 4 A final example is cost. Due to the and 5 automated vehicles require high definition technology and advanced computing involved (HD) maps in order to function. These maps in CAVs, it is estimated that an additional enable CAVs to know their location and $10,000 premium will be added on to understand their environment (Hook, 2018). automated vehicles on top of their prices The construction of HD maps is a significant currently (Fagnant, 2015). This price will obstacle that must be overcome before high eventually fall, but the first commercially level CAVs can hit the road. Companies such as available fully automated vehicles are likely to be Waymo, Uber, HERE, Tesla, Lyft, Civil Maps, well out of the price range of most Americans. and others are trying to be the first to perfect For comparison, Audi’s 2019 A8 sedan, which the mapping process. As of now, the process is contains partial level 3 technology, starts at time consuming, expensive, generates more data nearly $92,000. The base model, without this than current infrastructure can properly handle, technology, starts at approximately $84,000 and requires a high degree of computing power (“Luxury found the vehicle it deserves”, 2018). from within the vehicle itself (Barnes, 2018). History of Transportation Technology Liability Shaping Suburbanization The legal question of liability must also Suburbanization in America during the be solved. When an automated vehicle gets into 20th century, where the population shifted from a car accident, either the CAV user or the urban areas and into less densely populated manufacturer will have to assume the liability in suburbs, was driven by several factors, including an accident. The significant difference between advancements in transportation technology. The level 1-3 and 4-5 CAVs is also an issue. In a diffusion, or widespread use, of the automobile CAV level 3 or below, users cannot be fully in American society during this period was disengaged from the vehicle. It would be concurrent with the expansive wave of reasonable to claim that the user would assume suburbanization (Kopecky, 2010). As liability in an accident if they ignored safety and transportation travel expenses declined, those warning features within the vehicle. In a level 4 who were able to afford having an automobile or 5 CAV, the user can be more disengaged. In were able to move to the urban edge where this case, it must be determined who assumes housing was cheaper. Due to the cost, by 1910 the liability for an accident. These are all only approximately 2% of American households questions that have to be resolved before CAVs owned an automobile. However, as costs began can become commercially available and to rapidly fall, 44% owned a car by the mid- operated on freely on public roadways. 1930s. By the 1970s, just over 80% of Americans owned at least one car (Kopecky, Privacy 2010). Privacy is another concern. The While use of the automobile grew during technology used in CAVs collects and transmits the 20th century, so too did the U.S. a plethora of data not only about the vehicle metropolitan population. Between 1910 and itself, but also the user. Information collected 2000, the metropolitan population grew from can include biometric data like height, weight, 28% to 80%. Most of this growth was seen in and voice tone. Further analysis of the data can the suburbs, not central . Approximately reveal information about personal health, travel half of the U.S. population resided in suburban habits, and specific locations visited (Barnes, areas by 2000 (Hobbs, 2002). As the 20th

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 66

century came to an end, 4 out of 5 people in the of delayed travel time and waste 3.8 billion U.S. now lived in metropolitan areas. At the gallons of fuel. This results in a total economic same time, central city populations fell below loss of $200 billion to the 1950 levels as more people were moving into economy (Schrank, 2015). Connected and the suburbs (Hobbs, 2002). It is clear that the automated vehicles have the potential to reduce advent of the car was not the sole driving force motor vehicle accidents and smooth traffic of suburbanization in the 20th century. merging, both of which will help to alleviate However, it is important to understand the role traffic congestion between 15% and 60%. Just a played by the automobile in that 15% reduction in congestion would equal a suburbanization to anticipate the impact of national cost savings of $30 billion from fuel autonomous vehicles in the future. The and time saved (Fagnant, 2015). By alleviating automobile opened previously unfathomable the cost of congestion, both in terms of time and unfeasible options for the American people, and money, CAVs further lessen the burden of so too will the autonomous vehicle. long commutes or extended travel.

Impact of CAVs on the Urban and Safety Suburban Environment In the United States there are roughly 5.5 Connected and automated vehicles have million reported motor vehicle accidents and to the potential to significantly alter the urban 33,000 fatalities every year. Human error is the and suburban dichotomy. These vehicles will cause of over 90% of these accidents (Fagnant, change the value of travel time, increase safety, 2015). These crashes result in an estimated loss decrease congestion, change parking demand, of $250 to $300 billion per year (Blincoe, 2015). and change the way we think about urban While it is difficult to quantify the exact impact spaces. of autonomous vehicles, it is clear that CAVs will reduce the number of accidents, fatalities, Value of Travel Time and financial cost of motor vehicle accidents. It First, CAVs will dramatically change the is important to note that autonomous vehicles value of travel time by reducing the opportunity are not immune to accidents. Even though cost of traveling. Automated vehicles, those at CAV accidents will occur, they will happen at a level 4 and 5, require little to no involvement much lower frequency than accidents today. from the passenger(s). As such, the passenger of With increased safety, reduced congestion, and the vehicle can use their travel time in a a lower opportunity cost of traveling, people productive manner. For example, one hour will be more willing to travel longer distances. spent driving can now be used to do work, This opens the potential for a new wave of homework, sleep, eat, or even shop online. suburbanization. Since individuals can use their commuting time in a productive manner, they may be more Parking willing to commute even longer distances. This Automated vehicles are also going to have results in more people moving further into the an impact on urban communities. Self-driving suburbs where they can find lower housing vehicles are expected to impact parking demand prices (Litman, 2018) (McDonald, 2016). in urban centers. Vehicles, on average, only spend 5% of their lifetime in motion. The other Congestion 95% is spent parked (Kockelman, 2017). Connected to the change in the value of Automated vehicles will likely spend more of travel time is potential changes to congestion. their lifetime in motion. For a commuter, rather According to the 2015 Urban Mobility than driving to work and leaving their vehicle in Scorecard from Texas A&M’s Transportation the parking lot nearby, the car can be sent back Institute, congestion in the United States is to their home to service the next family member going to cause approximately 8.3 billion hours or remain there until it is needed again.

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 67

Alternatively, the vehicle can be sent to a free or The Next Generation: Urbanization or reduced-price parking space outside of the city. Suburbanization? As CAVs continue to be introduced into ride- The living preferences of the next two sharing markets, the number of required generations are going to be a substantial parking spaces in densely developed areas will influence on whether CAVs usher in the next decrease. These vehicles can move from wave of suburbanization. As already identified, passenger to passenger without needing to automated vehicles can drive the trend in either spend a substantial amount of time parked. direction. By altering the value of travel time, Additionally, the increasing prevalence of ride CAVs can enable more individuals to move out sharing services, paired with autonomous of urban centers and into fringe communities. vehicles, could reduce the number of multi- On the other hand, the way CAVs will alter vehicle households. Fewer households with urban living could attract more individuals to multiple cars will result in a lower demand for life in urban centers. An analysis of generational urban parking. Automated vehicles can also housing preferences is necessary to determine utilize smaller parking spaces than those what, if any, public policies are needed to ensure currently available. A properly designed parking sustainable growth. Without proper planning, lot or redesigned parking garage could unfettered suburbanization can lead to excessive accommodate up to 62% more vehicles than a travel with longer commutes, increased conventional lot (Nourinejad, 2018). Decreased pollution associated with increased vehicle parking demand, coupled with increased travel, increased usage and wearing down of efficiency and capacity of new or existing public infrastructure, and the destruction of parking infrastructure, will generate a smaller green space and disruption of natural habitats parking footprint, especially in urban areas for further suburban development. (Barnes, 2018). Housing Preferences Millennials, loosely defined as individuals After parking demand has been born between 1981 and 1996, are about to set diminished, precious real estate in city centers the housing market precedent for years to come can be reclaimed by local because (Dimock, 2018). However, uncertainty that space is no longer needed for expansive surrounds their preferred housing option. Some parking lots. This real estate can then be utilized studies have pointed to millennials abandoning for a variety of purposes. It can be reclaimed as the suburbs and adopting life in the city. Other a shared community space, utilized for studies claim that millennials will largely follow pedestrian infrastructure, turned into green in the steps of their baby-boomer parents and space, or rezoned for an entirely new purpose move to the suburbs. Research conducted by (Skinner, 2016). Rezoning will allow local Transportation Research Board shows that governments to take advantage of mixed-use millennial living preferences will not be development, also known as live-work space. dramatically different from previous This space blends residential, commercial, and generations. The researchers conducted a entertainment uses. An example of this comprehensive travel and residential survey in development would be a multi-story urban seven major cities in the United States. They building where the first floor is comprised of found that the net migration of millennials commercial businesses while the upper floors trends toward suburban environments contain residential units. Particularly, (Clewlow, 2017). In a 2013 survey, researchers municipalities can invest in higher density determined that millennials preferred to live in residential buildings. With more housing and “compact, mixed use, walkable, and transit the reduced need for a car, urban centers may accessible communities” (Moos. 2018). These become more of an attractive place to live. characterizes are more representative of urban, not suburban, living. While there have been

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 68

substantial efforts to study the housing desires large populations of people abandoning urban of millennials, not enough research has been centers and moving into suburban communities. complied on their habits as it relates to Enough information exists now to conclude autonomous vehicles. According to most that automated vehicles will be an inescapable industry experts, autonomous vehicles are not part of our reality. To not consider the impacts going to reach market saturation for another 40 that CAVs will have on urban and suburban to 60 years. Assuming adoption happens as planning is irresponsible. soon as 40 years from now, most millennials First, more research must be dedicated will be over 60 years old. By that time, most will to determining the housing trends of already be settled into either an urban or Millennials, Generation Z, and the generation suburban lifestyle and nearing retirement. Given that will follow next. Understanding these substantial student debt, rising costs of living, trends will help determine what public policy and stagnant wages, it is unlikely that a initiatives will be the most successful producing statistically significant number of millennials will the desired behavior or outcome. be able to personally own an autonomous Cities should take on this research to vehicle until CAVs become more widely used. determine how best to attract the next Most individuals, not just millennials, will be generations and keep them from moving into unable to afford a CAV in the near future. the suburbs. Some of these methods include However, if testing continues on operating proactively starting to rezone urban centers and CAVs in urban centers for ride sharing allow for a higher density and create walkable purposes, there will be a greater incentive for communities. Investments should be made to millennials to move into the city and abandon improve pedestrian and cyclist infrastructure as their car instead of moving further out into the well as public transit. Automated vehicles will suburbs. So, individually owned CAVs are not replace public transit, but rather be a unlikely to have a significant impact on supplement to it. These investments should Millennials until much later in their lives. If begin as soon as possible. Even though CAVs CAV use in ride-sharing becomes more are likely decades away from widespread use, prevalent, which is a current unknown, then cities need to be ready to handle the challenges CAVs may encourage more Millennials to move that CAVs will bring. Cities have to plan for into urban areas. how CAVs will alter urban living preferences Generation Z comes after millennials. and travel patterns, as well as how CAVs require These individuals are more likely to have their significant transportation infrastructure housing preferences significantly influenced by investments. If not, cities more suffer more CAV technology than millennials. urban flight, resulting in underutilized and Unfortunately, little scholarly work has been unattractive urban centers. dedicated to analyzing their housing preferences States and local governments should due to their age. These individuals are just look to disincentivize excessive travel, single entering college or are even younger. occupant travel, or zero occupant travel where the CAV is traveling without any passengers. Recommendations One example of a disincentive would be a Connected and automated vehicles have mileage-based user fee (MBUF). An MBUF is a the capability to drive both suburbanization and fee imposed on vehicle travel, based upon the urbanization. While it is important to number of miles traveled. The implementation understand the preferred housing options of of this kind of system should result in the future generations, not enough research exists elimination of a gas tax. While this system has to date. As such, state and local governments not been officially implemented in any U.S. must be proactive in steering growth in a state, it has been the subject of a number of sustainable way. Sustainable growth involves pilot programs. Taxing miles traveled will preventing urban flight. Urban flight involves disincentivize individuals from moving into the

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 69

suburbs and making longer commutes. and Automated Vehicles. Institute for Public Disincentivizing suburban development will Administration. University of Delaware. July, save fuel from excessive travel, decrease 2018. pollution associated with vehicle travel, limit the Berger, A., Laberteaux, K., Hamza, K., & Brown, C. use of and wearing down of public Driven To Expansion - Suburbanization, Decentralization, And Automated Driving. MIT infrastructure, and preserve land that would Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced otherwise be developed for suburban housing. . Clements, L., & Kockelman, K. (2017). Economic Conclusion effects of automated vehicles. Transportation Automated vehicles are no longer the Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research stuff of science fiction novels and films. CAV Board, 2602, 106- 114. testing has demonstrated that the vehicles could Clewlow, R., Mishra, G., Jenn, A., & Laberteaux, K. become commercially available as soon as 2020- (2017, November 30). Urban Travel and 2030, at a steep price. By 2060, these vehicles Residential Choices Across Generations: Results are likely to approach full market saturation. from a North American Survey. Retrieved from Just as the automobile aided in increasing https://trid.trb.org/view/1495886 Dennis, E.P., Spulber, A., Brugeman, V.S., suburbanization in the 20th century, so too can Kuntzsch, R., & Neuner, R. (2017). Planning for the CAV. For that reason, planning connected and automated vehicles. Ann Arbor, MI: professionals and policy makers must begin to Center for Automotive Research. proactively plan for the impacts of autonomous Desouza, K., Swindell, D., Smith, K. L., Sutherland, vehicles. Failing to direct smart growth will A., Fedorschak, K., & Coronel. (2015). Local result in more unsustainable suburban government 2035: Strategic trends and implications of development. Without government intervention new technologies (Issues in Technology or proper city planning, CAVs could lead to Innovation). Washington, DC: Brookings. more urbanization or more suburbanization. As Dimock, M. (2018, March 01). Where Millennials is the nature of many brand-new technologies, end and post-Millennials begin. Retrieved from the full consequences, both intended and http://www.pewresearch.org/fact- tank/2018/03/01/defining-generations-where- unintended, of connected and automated millennials-end-and-post-millennials-begin/ vehicles cannot be known. Federal, state, and Fagnant, D., & Kockelman, K. (2015). Preparing a local agencies must advance scholarly research nation for autonomous vehicles: Opportunities, to determine future generational trends and barriers, and policy recommendations for proactive planning. capitalizing on self- driven vehicles. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 77, 167-181. References Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. M. (2014). The Anderson, J., Kalra, N., Stanley, K., Sorensen, P., travel and environmental implications of shared Samaras, S., & Oluwatola, O. (2014). Autonomous autonomous vehicles, using agent-based model vehicle technology: A guide for policymakers. Santa scenarios. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Technologies, 40, 1–13. Anderson, M., & Larco, N. (2017). and Fox, S. (2016). Planning for density in a driverless transportation policies. Davis, CA: Institute of world. Northeastern University Law Journal, Transportation Studies, University of California Forthcoming. Davis. Golson, J. (2016, August 16). Ford will build an Barnes, P., Swan, B. High Definition Mapping and Data autonomous car without a steering wheel or Collection. Institute for Public Administration. pedals by 2021. Retrieved from University of Delaware. December, 2018. https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/16/125043 Barnes, P. Privacy in Connected and Automated Vehicles. 00/ford-autonomous-car-ride-sharing-2021 Institute for Public Administration. University Hawkins, A. J. (2018, January 12). GM will make an of Delaware. May, 2018. autonomous car without steering wheel or Barnes, P., Swan, B. for Connected pedals by 2019. Retrieved from

New Visions for Public Affairs, Volume 11, Spring 2019 || 70

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/168809 and policy. London: Routledge, Taylor & 78/gm-autonomous-car-2019--auto- Francis Group. show-2018 Morgan Stanley. (2013). Autonomous cars: Self- driving Heinrichs, D. (2016). Autonomous driving and the new auto industry paradigm. New York, NY: urban land use. In M. Maurer, J. C. Gerdes, B. Morgan Stanley. Lenz, & H. Winner (Eds.), Autonomous Driving National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (pp. 213–231). Berlin: Springer. (2018). Automated Vehicles for Safety. Retrieved Huddleston, T. H. (2018, June 27). Move over Telsa, from https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology- this self-driving Volvo will let you sleep during innovation/automated-vehicles-safety your highway commute. Retrieved from National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/volvo- (2016). Federal automated vehicles policy: Accelerating self-driving-car-sleep-watch-movie-on- the next revolution in roadway safety. Washington, commute-by-2021.html DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Kockelman, K., Boyles, S., Stone, P., Fagnant, D., Administration. Rahul, P., Levin, M. W., ... Li, J. (2017). An Nourinejad, M., Bahrami, S., & Roorda, M. J. (2018). assessment of autonomous vehicles: Traffic impacts and Designing parking facilities for autonomous infrastructure needs (No. 0- 6847–1). Austin, TX: vehicles. Transportation Research Part B: Center for Transportation Research, University Methodological, 109, 110– 127. Saiz, A., & Salazar, of Texas. A. (2017). Real trends: The future of real estate in the Kopecky, K., & Suen, R. (2010). A United States. Cambridge, MA: Center for Real QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF Estate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. SUBURBANIZATION AND THE akaria, N., & Stehfest, N. (2013). Millennials & DIFFUSION OF THE mobility: Understanding the millennial mindset and new AUTOMOBILE. International Economic opportunities for transit providers. Washington, DC: Review, 51(4), 1003-1037. Retrieved from Transportation Research Board. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40929500 Shaheen, S., & Cohen, A. (2013). Innovative mobility Litman, T. (2018). Autonomous vehicle implementation carsharing outlook: Carsharing market overview, predictions: Implications for transport planning. analysis, and trends. Berkeley, CA: Transportation Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Sustainability Research Center. Institute. Shoup, D. (2011). The high cost of free parking. Chicago, McKinsey & Company. Automotive revolution – perspective IL: Routledge. towards 2030 How the convergence of disruptive Sivak, M., & Schoettle, B. (2015). Road safety with self- technology-driven trends could transform the auto driving vehicles: General limitations and road sharing industry. (2016, January). Retrieved from with conventional vehicles (No. UMTRI-2015-2). https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinse Ann Arbor, MI: The Unversity of Michigan, y/industries/high tech/our insights/disruptive Transportation Research Institute. trends that will transform the auto Skinner, R., & Bidwell, N. (2016). Making better places: industry/auto 2030 report jan 2016.ashx Autonomous vehicles and future opportunities. London, Moos, M. (2018). The millennial city: Trends, UK: WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff. implications, and prospects for urban planning