3 December 2019

What did you miss last month? Currencies Global

Tariff rollback in talks, UK Conservatives lead, and rising geopolitical tensions

 Reports suggest the US and China agree to roll back tariffs in ‘phases’

 Conservatives lead in UK General Election opinion polls

 New record lows for some LatAm currencies versus the USD

Key Dates November 1  US non-farm payrolls 128k versus 85k expected November 5  US ISM non-manufacturing 54.7 versus 53.5 expected  USD-RMB moves below 7.00 for the first time since August November 7  China reportedly agrees with the US to roll back tariffs in ‘phases’

 The Bank of England keeps rates on hold; two members vote for a 25bp cut November 8  The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy statement shows GDP forecast revised lower  Canada net change in employment -1.8k versus 15.0k expected November 9  US President Trump describes the amount of tariffs the US is reportedly willing to roll back as “incorrect” November 11  Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announces the party will not contest Conservative-held seats in the UK General Election November 12  National strike in Chile calls for President Piñera’s resignation November 13  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps rates on hold at 1.00% versus a 25bp cut expected

November 14  Australia unemployment rate 5.3% versus 5.2% expected November 19  The Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins says policy rate still has “room to manoeuvre” November 22  US manufacturing flash PMI 52.2 versus 51.4 expected  UK services flash PMI 48.6 versus 50.1 expected  The European Central Bank’s President Lagarde states monetary policy will “undergo strategic review” November 25  The Federal Reserve’s Chair Powell describes the US economy’s glass as being “more than half full” November 26  The RBA’s Governor Lowe states quantitative easing (QE) not to be considered before a cash rate of 0.25% November 27  YouGov poll points to Conservative majority with 68 seats

Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

Summary – EUR-USD falling asleep

The USD index (DXY) gained 0.9%1 in November. Positive US activity data at the start of the month favoured a stronger USD, which also saw a decline in expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Despite these developments, November proved to be a quiet month for EUR-USD as the pair edged lower in glacial fashion. In fact, EUR-USD one-month realised volatility reached its lowest point in five years, at 3.66, on 29 November, whilst implied volatility reached a record low of 3.90. The GBP slipped 0.1% against the USD in November, displaying little momentum as the market awaited December’s General Election. Data was poor in November for the UK, both activity and inflation releases fell short of expectations. The EUR declined 1.2% against the USD during the month. With no European Central Bank (ECB) meeting for the month and few notable domestic catalysts, EUR-USD found itself pushed lower as strong US activity data reminded the FX market of the disparity in economic dynamics between the Eurozone and the US. ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech on the future of the euro economy, stating that monetary policy will undergo “a strategic review” due to begin in the near future. An emphasis was put on the importance of fiscal policy, as the ECB’s struggle with sub-target inflation and slowing growth continues.

Elsewhere: Cracks appearing in Latin America (LatAm) Rising geopolitical tensions drove certain LatAm currencies to their weakest ever levels versus the USD over the course of November, including the Brazilian real (4.2765), the Chilean peso (838.33), and the Colombian peso (3,527.13). A notable development was on 12 November, when a national strike was organised in Chile, in order to put pressure on President Piñera to resign. In Brazil, Economic Minister Paulo Guedes dismissed the Brazilian real’s weakness, stating “We have a floating currency, so it floats”, with the market interpreting this as meaning FX weakness would be tolerated. Political tensions also heightened in Colombia during November, amid nationwide protests against tax and pension reforms.

November G10 performance % Change versus USD 1.0% 1.0%

0.5% 0.5%

0.0% 0.0%

-0.5% -0.5%

-1.0% -1.0%

-1.5% -1.5%

-2.0% -2.0% AUD CHF JPY EUR CAD NOK GBP NZD SEK Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

US: The resilient economy

The USD index (DXY) gained 0.9% in November. Positive US activity data at the start of the month favoured a stronger USD, which also saw a decline in expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Despite these developments, November proved to be a quiet month

1 All prices in this report are taken from Bloomberg.

2 Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

for EUR-USD as the pair edged lower in glacial fashion. In fact, EURUSD one-month realised volatility reached its lowest point in five years, at 3.66, on 29 November, whilst implied volatility reached a record low of 3.90 on the same day.

In terms of data, 128k employees were added to US non-farm business payrolls, beating the 85k estimate, in data released on 1 November. However, it was US ISM non-manufacturing that got the ball rolling for the USD, printing at 54.7 versus 53.5 expected. The DXY ended the day up 0.5% – this would be the largest daily move for both the DXY and EUR-USD in the whole of November, highlighting a rather subdued month for the currency pair. Just as the EUR was starting to recover losses against the USD, US PMI data showed an expected expansion in the manufacturing and services sector, on 22 November, after which EUR-USD declined 0.3%.

This positive story was reflected in comments from Fed Chair Powell, who described the US economy’s glass as being “more than half full” on 25 November, at the Annual Meeting of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.

EUR-USD EUR-USD 1.1200 1.1200 4 November: US factory orders lower than expected Daily change: - 0.3% 1.1150 1.1150 5 November: US ISM non- 25 November: Fed's Powell describes 1 November: manufacturing higher than US economy being a glass "more than US non-farm expected 1.1100 half full" 1.1100 payrolls higher Daily change: - 0.5% Daily change: - 0.1% than expected Daily change: + 0.1% 1.1050 1.1050 6 November: Germany factory orders higher than expected Daily change: - 0.1% 1.1000 22 November: ECB president Lagarde states monetary policy will 1.1000 undergo "strategic review", US PMIs stronger than expected Daily change: - 0.3%

1.0950 1.0950 31-Oct 3-Nov 6-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov 21-Nov 24-Nov 27-Nov 30-Nov Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Eurozone: Monetary policy to undergo “strategic review”

The EUR declined 1.2% against the USD during the month. With no European Central Bank (ECB) meeting for the month and few notable domestic catalysts, EUR-USD found itself pushed lower as strong US activity data reminded the FX market of the disparity in economic dynamics between the Eurozone and the US. For example, on 22 November, lower-than-expected Eurozone services and composite flash PMIs, coupled with stronger-than-expected US flash PMIs, saw EUR-USD end the day down 0.3%. This was a recurrent theme in November, with EUR-USD also falling 0.5% on 5 November on the back of stronger US data.

On 22 November, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech on the future of the Eurozone economy. Lagarde stated that monetary policy will undergo “a strategic review” due to begin in the near future, and also emphasised the importance of fiscal policy, as the ECB’s struggle with sub-target inflation and slowing growth continues; however, in terms of market reaction, the speech was rather uneventful.

3 Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

UK: Gearing up for the General Election

The GBP slipped 0.1% against the USD in November, as the market awaited December’s General Election. Data in the UK was poor during the month, with both activity and inflation releases falling short of expectations. On 22 November, UK flash PMIs showed a contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors. The services PMI was notably weaker than expected as it printed at 48.5 versus a 50.2 estimate. GBP-USD was down 0.6%. The Bank of England (BOE) kept rates on hold, at 0.75%, on 7 November, which was expected, although two policymakers unexpectedly diverged from this decision and voted for a 25bp cut. GBP-USD fell 0.3% on the day following this dovish development.

Developments on the political front helped to reverse the GBP losses on 11 November, as Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced his party will not contest Conservative-held seats in the General Election. The FX market digested this news as an increased likelihood of a Conservative majority government and, therefore, a Brexit deal being agreed by the UK Parliament. The GBP rose 0.6% against the USD. On 18 November, GBP-USD was buoyed further as weekend polls showed Conservatives building on their lead over Labour. This was repeated on 27 November, when a YouGov poll – which had been one of the few polls to correctly call a hung parliament in 2017 – predicted Conservatives winning by a 68-seat majority, pushing GBP-USD 0.4% higher and above the 1.29 handle.

GBP-USD GBP-USD 1.300 1.300 18 November: Polls over the weekend show 22 November: UK manufacturing, Conservatives in the lead services, and composite PMIs lower 11 November: Nigel Farage Daily change: + 0.2% than expected 1.295 announces Brexit Party will Daily change: - 0.6% 1.295 not contest Conservative- held seats, UK GDP YoY lower than expected 1.290 1.290 Daily change: + 0.6%

1.285 1.285 7 November: BoE keeps rates on hold, 14 November: Brexit Party 27 November: YouGov poll but 2 members vote candidates stand down from 43 predicts 68-seat 1.280 1.280 for 25bp cut additional seats, UK core retail Conservative majority Daily change: -0.3% sales lower than expected Daily change: + 0.4% Daily change: + 0.2% 1.275 1.275 31-Oct 3-Nov 6-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov 21-Nov 24-Nov 27-Nov 30-Nov

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Japan: Retail sales slump

The JPY fell 1.3% against the USD in November. The prevailing “risk-on” sentiment weighed on the JPY for most of the month, as a new ‘Phase 1’ deal between the US and China appeared in sight. With no Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in November, the market focused largely on global developments to move USD-JPY. At the start of the month, strong US economic data and improved sentiment on the US-China trade war helped USD-JPY to push higher, with a notable 0.5% increase on 5 November. However, the currency pair largely moved sideways from here. Data on 13 November showed Japan GDP growth at 0.1% QoQ, below the 0.2% consensus, although with little reaction from the FX market. Retail sales data for October, released on 27 November, were also even more disappointing than expected following the increase in sales tax implemented at the start of the month. MoM retail sales fell 14.4% versus -10.4% expected. This

4 Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

weak data all preceded BOJ Governor Kuroda highlighting the need to ease even further if price momentum doesn’t recover on 29 November.

USD-JPY USD-JPY 110.0 110.0

109.5 13 November: Japan QoQ GDP 109.5 lower than expected 27 November: Japan retail sales Daily change: - 0.2% lower than expected Daily change: + 0.5%

109.0 109.0 27 November: BoJ Governor Kurodo "not considering 5 November: US ISM non- further monetary easing at 108.5 manufacturing stronger than present" 108.5 expected Daily change: 0.0% Daily change: + 0.5%

108.0 108.0 31-Oct 3-Nov 6-Nov 9-Nov 12-Nov 15-Nov 18-Nov 21-Nov 24-Nov 27-Nov 30-Nov Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

China: USD-RMB dips below seven as trade tensions cool

The RMB ended November flat against the USD, although USD-RMB took a dip below the 7.00 handle for the first time in three months. This happened on 5 November, as improved sentiment on the US-China trade war allowed the RMB to strengthen 0.3%. USD-RMB subsequently traded around this level, and then dived again below 7.00 on 7 November, after China reportedly agreed (although did not sign) with the US to remove trade tariffs in ‘phases’. However, this excitement was soon dampened, as US President Trump described reports on how much the US was willing to roll back as “incorrect” on 9 November. USD-RMB rallied above 7.00 from then onwards through to month-end as the USD pared losses made earlier in the month.

Canada: A caution from Wilkins

The CAD dropped 0.9% against the USD during the month. A strengthening USD and dovish tones from a Bank of Canada (BOC) policymaker helped buoy USD-CAD, despite higher oil prices, which would often be supportive for the CAD. A large part of this decline came on 19 November, after BOC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins cautioned about growing global uncertainty. While recognising the policy rate was low at 1.75%, Wilkins indicated “there is still room to manoeuvre”. USD-CAD rallied 0.5% on the remarks, as the expected probability of a rate cut at the BOC’s January meeting increased above 50%. On 21 November, BOC Governor Poloz said he thought monetary conditions were “about right”, although the FX market’s reaction was relatively muted. Economic data in Canada was relatively mixed during the month. On 8 November, Canada’s net change in employment showed a decline of 1.8k versus a 15.0k increase expected, seeing the CAD slip 0.4% against the USD.

Australia: Quantitative easing not yet in consideration

AUD-USD declined 1.9% during November, with the AUD being the worst G10 performer. The AUD saw its biggest drop of the month against the USD on 14 November, after Australian

5 Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

employment numbers fell by 19k compared to the 15k increase expected, and the unemployment rate came in at 5.3% versus a consensus of 5.2% – AUD-USD fell 0.8% on the day. In terms of central bank developments, the AUD dropped 0.5% against the USD on 8 November after the RBA’s statement on monetary policy was released. In the report, the central bank revised its forecast for GDP growth to June to 2.50 from 2.75% in August. On 26 November, RBA Governor Lowe gave a speech in which he stated quantitative easing (QE) is to be considered “at a cash rate of 0.25%, but not before that”.

New Zealand: To cut, Orr not to cut

After starting the month on the back foot against the USD, NZD-USD surged mid-month to finish November up 0.1%. The currency pair had fallen 1.5% by 12 November, as a weaker-than- expected New Zealand unemployment rate and strong US data pushed NZD-USD lower. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) confounded expectations on 13 November, by holding the cash rate at 1.00%, whilst the market had priced in around a 75% chance of a rate cut. RBNZ Governor Orr stated it was “a tough decision” for the central bank, but the policymakers decided to give themselves more time to observe the already significant drop in interest rates, before making one more “insurance cut”. NZD-USD surged 1.3% on the day and continued to climb as the month came to an end.

Oil: Pumped higher on demand optimism

Brent prices rose 3.5% during November. On 1 November, crude prices spurted higher on the back of upbeat data releases from the US and China. US non-farm payrolls and China manufacturing PMI both beat expectations, bolstering the outlook for global demand, which saw Brent climb 2.4% on the day. Oil prices seesawed from here onwards until a rally was kick- started on 20 November, when an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a much smaller increase in US crude stocks (+1.4 million barrels) compared to the American Petroleum Institute (API) data (+6.0 million barrels). On 21 November, oil prices rose further as it was reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) existing production cuts will be extended until June 2020. Brent prices jumped 5.0% over these two days.

Precious Metals: Losing its sparkle

Gold prices dropped 3.4% in November, as “risk-on” sentiment saw the “safe-haven” asset lose appeal. On 5 November, the yellow metal shed 1.7% as US ISM non-manufacturing topped estimates and the USD had a broad rally. Gold fell another 1.5% on 7 November, after it was reported the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs in “phases”. The precious metal eventually reached its lowest price since August, at USD1445.70 per ounce, on 12 November. After this initial decline at the start of the month, gold prices remained flat through to month-end.

6 Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

Movers in November vs. USD Upcoming key events NZD +0.1% JPY -1.3% Date Event CHF -1.4% 4 Dec The Bank of Canada rate announcement AUD -1.9% The Federal Open Market Committee 11 Dec rate announcement The European Central Bank rate 12 Dec announcement 19 Dec The Bank of England rate announcement 19 Dec The Bank of Japan rate announcement

Commodities Gold -3.4% Brent Crude Oil +3.5%

Source: Bloomberg

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Disclosure appendix

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Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at 03 December 2019. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 02 December 2019, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. 4 You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument.

Currencies ● Global 3 December 2019

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