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Risk Analysis for 2017

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Risk Analysis for 2017 Risk Analysis for 2017 Risk Analysis for 2017 Frontex official publications fall into four main categories: risk analysis, training, operations and research, each marked with a distinct graphic identifier. Risk analysis publications bear a triangular symbol formed by an arrow drawing a triangle, with a dot at the centre. Meta phorically, the arrow represents the cyclical nature of risk analysis processes and its orienta tion towards an appropriate operational response. The tri­ angle is a symbol of ideal proportions and knowledge, reflecting the pursuit of factual exactness, truth and exhaustive analysis. The dot at the centre represents the intelligence factor and the focal point where informa­ tion from diverse sources converges to be processed, systematised and shared as analytical products. Thus, Frontex risk analysis is meant to be at the centre and to form a reliable ba sis for its operational activities. Plac Europejski 6, 00­844 Warsaw, Poland T +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01 [email protected] www.frontex.europa.eu Warsaw, February 2017 Risk Analysis Unit Frontex reference number: 2133 / 2017 Paper version: PDF: TT-AC-17-001-EN-C TT-AC-17-001-EN-N ISBN 978-92-95205-67-3 ISBN 978-92-95205-68-0 ISSN 1977-4451 ISSN 1977-446X doi:10.2819/94559 doi:10.2819/250349 © Frontex, 2017 All rights reserved. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Cover photo: Registration of migrants in Sicily © Frontex, 2016 All rights reserved. DISCLAIMERS This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. All maps and charts included in this report are the sole property of Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited. Frontex disclaims any liability with respect to the boundaries, names and designations used on the maps. The contents of open­source boxes are presented only to give context and media representation of irregu­ lar­migration phenomena without engaging Frontex responsibility. Throughout the report, references to Kosovo* are marked with an asterisk to indicate that this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Ko­ sovo declaration of independence. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Frontex Risk Analysis for 2017 has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and outside contributed to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude. 2 of 60 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2017 Table of contents 1. Preface 6 2. Summary 8 3. Introduction 11 4. Methodology 12 5. Situational picture in 2016 15 5.1. Main trends 16 5.2. Surveillance: Overview 18 5.3. Border checks: Refusals of entry 21 5.4. Border checks: Fraudulent documents 22 5.5. Border checks: Clandestine entries 24 5.6. Border checks: Illegal stayers, facilitators, asylum applications 25 5.7. Cross-border crime 26 5.8. In the EU: Secondary movements 28 5.9. In the EU: Returns 30 6. Featured analyses 31 6.1. Long-range coast guarding operations in the Central Mediterranean 32 6.2. Iranians travelling undetected into the EU with fraudulent documents – a case study 34 6.3. Personal data for risk analysis – mixed methods analysis of smuggling networks in Libya 36 6.4. Identifying return system vulnerabilities 38 6.5. Safety and security situation in reception centres 40 6.6. Prohibited goods with possible security impacts 42 7. Conclusions 45 8. Statistical annex 46 3 of 60 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2017 List of acronyms used ALDO Advanced Level Document Officer BCP border­crossing point Daesh Islamic State of Iraq and Syria EASO European Asylum Support Office EDF European Union Document­Fraud EDF-RAN European Union Document­Fraud Risk Analysis Network EEAS European External Action Service EMCDDA European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction EPN European Patrols Network EPS EASO’s Early warning and Preparedness System EU European Union EU+ 28 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland EUNAVFOR Med European Union Naval Force Mediterranean EURINT European Integrated Management Initiative Eurodac European Dactyloscopy Eurojust European Union’s Judicial Cooperation Unit Europol European Police Office Eurostat statistical office of the European Union FRA European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights FRAN Frontex Risk Analysis Network Frontex European Border and Coast Guard Agency (formerly European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union) FTF foreign terrorist fighter FYROM former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; the definitive nomenclature for this country will be agreed following current negotiations at UN level ICJ International Court of Justice ICT information and communication technology ID identification document INTCEN European Union’s Intelligence Analysis Centre IOM International Organization for Migration JO Joint Operation MRCC Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre MS EU Member State NGO non­governmental organisation OCG organised crime group PeDRA Processing Personal Data for Risk Analysis RAU Frontex Risk Analysis Unit SAC Schengen Associated Country SAR search and rescue SOLAS International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea THB trafficking in human beings UK United Kingdom 4 of 60 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2017 UN United Nations UNDOC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNSCR United Nations Security Council resolution USD United States dollar 5 of 60 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2017 Frontex assists Bulgarian authorities, 2016 © Frontex 1. Preface In 2016, the EU experienced another year thorities in returning migrants who had within Europe continues to constitute of intense migratory pressure at its ex­ been issued return decisions. a threat to Europe’s internal security. ternal borders. Member States reported While the number of migrants from Throughout the year, Frontex (since more than 511 000 detections of illegal Asia and the Middle East decreased, 2016 October 2016 the European Border and border­crossing, which corresponds to was marked with an increase in migra­ Coast Guard Agency) consistently de­ roughly 382 000 new arrivals from Af­ tory pressure from Africa, in particular ployed between 1 000 and 1 500 border rica, the Middle East and Asia. This was a on the route from Libya to Italy. Italy saw guards at the EU’s external borders. In significant decrease in comparison with the highest number of arrivals ever re­ its maritime operations in the Central 2015, when over one million migrants corded – about 182 000, with a signifi­ Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea, the came to the EU. However, the overall cant increase in the number of migrants Agency­deployed vessels rescued 90 000 situation at Europe’s external borders from West Africa. Tragically, despite res­ migrants. At the same time, Frontex of­ remained challenging. cue efforts by Frontex, the Italian Coast ficers ensured the registration and iden­ The decrease in arrivals was mainly Guard and Navy, Operation EUNAVFOR tification of thousands of newly­arrived caused by fewer migrants arriving in Med, and the assistance of many NGO migrants in Greece and Italy. In Frontex Greece from Turkey. This drop was a re­ and commercial vessels, several thou­ operations in Italy, Greece, Spain, Hun­ sult of the EU­Turkey statement of March sands of migrants making the cross­ gary, Croatia and Bulgaria, 1 265 sus­ 2016 and the introduction of strict bor­ ing on overcrowded and unseaworthy pected people smugglers were arrested der­control measures in Western Bal­ rubber dinghies lost their lives in the and more than 95 tonnes of illegal nar­ kan countries, which effectively closed Mediterranean. cotics confiscated. the Balkan route. There was also an increase in peo­ In December 2015, the European Com­ As a result of the EU­Turkey state­ ple­smuggling activities, both on routes mission proposed the creation of a Eu­ ment, migrants who arrived on the leading to and within Europe. Many of ropean Border and Coast Guard. The Greek Islands after 20 March could be the migrants used forged documents, proposal was endorsed by the Member returned to Turkey. Indeed, since April which remains a challenge for border States and the European Parliament, and 2016 Frontex supported the Greek au­ authorities. Moreover, a large number on 6 October 2016 the European Border of poorly documented migrants moving and Coast Guard Agency was launched. 6 of 60 Frontex · Risk Analysis for 2017 The Agency, built on the foundations of factors that affect migratory movements Frontex, with increased budget and, in within the EU but also conditions beyond the near future, with significantly more Europe’s borders. staff, is entrusted with more responsibil­ It is clear that cooperation with mi­ ities in the field of migration but also in­ grants’ countries of origin and transit is ternal security. The European Border and one of key elements of a successful mi­ Coast Guard Agency is building the ca­ gration management. From exchange of pacity to deploy border and coast guard information to cooperation on returns, forces rapidly and efficiently, to support Frontex has been extending its reach be­ return measures, and to collect and pro­ yond Europe. In 2016, Frontex deployed cess personal data. All of these efforts its first Liaison Officer to Turkey. This support Europe’s migration management year, Frontex Liaison Officers will be de­ process and foster closer cooperation with ployed to priority countries in Africa and key non­EU countries in areas related to the Western Balkans. migration. These measures have a sin­ Last year the Agency also significantly © Frontex gle aim of preserving the free movement increased its activities in the area of within the Schengen area.
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