Chapter 7: MLM's Abysmal Numbers
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7-1 The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing By Jon M. Taylor, MBA, Ph.D., Consumer Awareness Institute Chapter 7: MLM’s ABYSMAL NUMBERS Chapter summary a large enough downline to meet expenses, and therefore do not profit. Is MLM a profitable business These conclusions were confirmed in the opportunity? And if so, for whom? Just do the average earnings reports of all 30 MLMs for math – the numbers don't lie. In this and which we were able to obtain data published preceding chapters, you will find the most by the companies themselves. Such statistics rigorous and thorough analysis of MLM are invaluable for analysts to debunk the profitability ever done by an independent many misrepresentations that are told to research firm. Questions about the viability thousands of prospects every day. and profitability of MLM as a business model Failure and loss rates for MLMs are not and its many company manifestations are comparable with legitimate small answered in this and prior chapters – based businesses, which have been found to be on 15 years’ research, worldwide feedback, profitable for 39% over the lifetime of the and analysis of the compensation plans of business; whereas less than 1% of MLM over 350 of the leading MLMs, as well as participants profit. MLM makes even average earnings data, where available. The gambling look like a safe bet in comparison. answers are not pretty. MLM stocks are questionable Our studies, along with those done by investments at best. And like gambling, other independent analysts (not connected to losses from MLM participation should not be the MLM industry), clearly prove that MLM as a allowed as a tax deduction – beyond the business model – with its endless chain of amount of actual income. recruitment of participants as primary MLM as a business model is the customers – is flawed, unfair, and deceptive. epitome of an “unfair or deceptive acts or Worldwide feedback suggests it is also practice” that the FTC is pledged to protect extremely viral, predatory and harmful to many against. It is even worse than classic, no- participants. This conclusion does not apply product pyramid schemes (for which the just to a specific MLM company, but to the loss rate is only about 90%) and “pay to entire MLM industry. It is a systemic problem. play” chain letters. For promoters to present Of the 350 MLMs I have analyzed for MLM as a “business opportunity” or “income which a complete compensation plan was opportunity” is a misrepresentation. available, 100% of them are recruitment- driven and top-weighted. In other words, the vast majority of commissions paid by MLM Legal disclaimer companies go to a tiny percentage of TOPPs (top-of-the-pyramid promoters) at These reports, analytical tools, and the expense of a revolving door of recruits, opinions are intended purely to communicate 99% of whom lose money. This is after information in accordance with the right of free subtracting purchases they must make to speech. They do not constitute legal or tax qualify for commissions and advancement advice. Anyone seeking such advice should in the scheme, to say nothing of minimal consult a competent professional who has operating expenses for conducting an expertise on endless chain or pyramid selling aggressive recruitment campaign – which schemes. Readers are specifically advised to (based on the compensation plans) is obey all applicable laws, whether or not essential to get into the profit column. enforced in their area. Neither the Consumer The claim by MLM promoters that many Awareness Institute nor the author assumes participants work for part-time or seasonal any responsibility for the consequences of income is a bogus argument because anyone acting according to the information in without full-time and long-sustained effort, these reports. MLM participants cannot build and maintain © 2011 Jon M. Taylor 7-2 Chapter contents Assumptions and cautions Chapter summary 7-1 needed to proceed with this Assumptions needed to proceed 7-2 analysis What tax studies have revealed about MLM 7-2 Disclosure of information supporting income In any analysis, especially on a claims is crucial for consumer protection 7-3 controversial topic and using less than Inherent flaws in MLM 7-4 perfectly gathered and controlled data, the How can the odds of profiting from an MLM be calculated? (6 steps) 7-4 analyst must make certain assumptions and The case of Nu Skin – responding to an FTC recognize certain cautions or potential Order to cease its misrepresentations 7-7 pitfalls in order to proceed. So in order for Sample calculations, using Nu Skin data 7-8 me or anyone to do this analysis of Exhibit 1: How data are presented by Nu Skin 7-10 profitability for MLM participants, certain Exhibit 2: Data presented with highlighted assumptions will be identified - such as information important for prospects to whether or not participants seek to optimize know, but not disclosed by Nu Skin 7-11 their gains, and what costs could be Additional conclusions that could be incurred (and therefore should be extracted from Nu Skin data 7-12 subtracted from earnings) in a successful Perform your own calculations 7-13 These conclusions on abysmal loss rates recruitment campaign. Questionable apply to every recruitment-driven MLM 7-14 reporting that could mislead those seeking Exhibit 3: Analysis of recruitment-driven to get at the truth must be guarded against, MLMs for which we have received data 7-15 such as how numbers are reported and Why the breakeven point for expenses is set so displayed. high before participants can net any profits 7-16 Even if we assume lower expenses and attrition What tax studies have revealed rates, MLMs loss rates are abysmal. 7-17 MLM loss rates are not comparable to those for about MLM profitability for legitimate small businesses 7-17 participants Does MLM participation qualify for tax write-offs? 7-19 Do MLM stocks make good investments? 7-19 The Wisconsin experience with Network Marketing Payout Distribution Study 7-20 Amway. In 1980, as part of a suit against These conclusions confirmed in other Amway, an investigation was undertaken by studies 7-20 the Office of Attorney General for the State MLMs are the worst of “business opportunities” of Wisconsin, led by Assistant AG Bruce and of all pyramid schemes. 7-22 Craig. Out of approximately 20,000 The critical need for adequate disclosure distributors operating in Wisconsin, state tax underscored by this information 7-24 returns were obtained for all of the Amway MLMs as “pay more” buyers’ clubs 7-24 “Direct” Distributors in Wisconsin, which Note to persons being recruited 7-24 Conclusions 7-25 numbered about 200, which represented approximately the top 1% of distributors in Appendix Wisconsin. Attached to the returns were the 7A: Analysis of loss rates of recruitment-driven 7-26 federal forms, which revealed a breakdown MLMs of revenue and expense information. 7B: List of MLMs Evaluated 7-30 Though these were supposedly the top 7C: Winners & losers in no-product pyramid 7-32 distributors in the state, with an average schemes gross profit of about $12,500, the average 7D A simple form that would provide honest and 7-33 net income after subtracting operating meaningful disclosure expenses for these 200 top Amway 7E: Profit and loss rates for various income distributors was about minus $900. Options (chart – separate pdf file) (Ob viously those who profit must be much 7F: Network Marketing Payout Distribution Study higher in the hierarchy of participants than the top 1% - and not living in Wisconsin) This information was reported on the nationally televised “60 Minutes” show. 7-3 It should be noted that had the costs of I called another 33 tax preparers in all Amway products that were consumed or Utah County who were not CPAs. From given away as gifts – but which were these, an additional five tax filers were required to qualify for commissions and reported to have very large incomes from advancement in the scheme – MLM participation – likely also TOPPs. been subtracted, the net losses could have These results strongly support what the rest been much higher. of this chapter will show – that most of the Mr. Craig recalled that a couple of money goes to TOPPs at the expense of a distributors may have grossed $50,000, with revolving door of unwitting new downline actual net income after expenses that would recruits who try an MLM program and quit, have exceeded a minimum wage for the only to enrich the TOPPs with commissions time spent on their Amway “business” – but from the purchases they made in a vain far below the income suggested at Amway effort to “succeed.” “opportunity meetings.” Approximately two distributors who operated profitably out of 20,000 total distributors yields a one in Disclosure of information supporting 10,000 ratio – decidedly uneconomic. Income claims – so crucial for The Utah tax study. In 2004, I consumer protection – is vigorously personally telephoned 99 tax preparers in resisted by the MLM industry. four Utah counties, three of which were rural counties with no MLMs (MLM companies) Since the income claims of MLMs headquartered in their boundaries. So I felt touted by their promoters are at the heart of it was a safe assumption that few if any the legitimacy of their programs, it is TOPPs (top-of-the-pyramid promoters), or important to disclose the truth about “kingpins,” would live in those counties. average earnings so that prospective None of the 33 tax preparers could recruits can have valid information upon remember anyone reporting a profit on their which to base their decisions on whether or income taxes from participating in MLM, for not to participate.