STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF CHRIS MCNEILL
Warrnambool Planning Scheme Amendment C93
Evidence Statement prepared for Planning Panels Victoria by:
Chris McNeill Director Spade Consultants Suite 1, 1396 Malvern Road Glen Iris VIC 3146
March 2016
Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
CONTENTS
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 2
1 INTRODUCTION 3
2 WARRNAMBOOL: REGIONAL CONTEXT 5
3 THE SUBJECT LAND 6
4 PLANNING CONTEXT AND AMENDMENT C93 8
5 PROJECTED POPULATION AND DWELLING GROWTH 11
6 LAND SUPPLY 13
7 IS THERE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RURAL-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN WARRNAMBOOL? 26
8 PROVISIONAL OPINION 27
9 DECLARATION 27
APPENDIX A (SUMMARY OF RELEVANT EXPERIENCE) 28
1 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
a) Warrnambool is the major regional centre of Victoria’s south-west region with a population of more than 34,000 persons. The city is expected to experience solid growth in the future generating a demand for new dwellings of between 225 and 258 per annum.
b) Dwelling growth is expected to be met by a range of dwelling typologies with high and medium density dwellings, conventional density development and rural-residential development combining to satisfy the city’s housing needs. Rural-residential growth, which is accommodated in the Low Density Zone and Rural Living Zone, can be expected to comprise between 5% and 7.5% of future housing needs, depending on the availability of supply. This equates to a need for between 11 and 19 lots per annum depending on the demand scenario adopted.
c) The majority of future rural-residential supply is located in small satellite townships and districts outside the Warrnambool urban area. It is my understanding that most of these areas do not have access to town water or sewer. Additionally, the majority do not have ready access to convenience retail facilities.
d) The city is well provided for in terms of broadhectare development land for conventional density housing. Warrnambool City Council estimates there is around 25 years of available zoned supply in broadhectare and infill supply.
e) A long term growth area has been identified in the Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy (2013) located east of the city between Aberline Road and the Horne Road industrial area. Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme seeks to preserve the long term growth area for conventional density residential development. Mr Graeme Rodger and other landowners at the eastern end of the long term growth area wish to develop their land as a fully serviced low density residential estate.
f) There are a number of benefits associated with the development of land at the eastern end of the long term growth area as a low density residential estate. These include:
Provision of a high quality and fully serviced low density residential area on the edge of Warrnambool’s primary urban area;
Decreased reliance on poorly serviced outlying townships for the provision of rural- residential lots;
Greater diversity of housing product within the primary urban area of Warrnambool;
Provision of lifestyle opportunities in a coastal location where ‘lifestyle’ is a key drawcard for new residents; and
The opportunity for a transitional area (or buffer) between the Horne Road industrial area to the east and what will be conventional density development to the west.
2 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
1. INTRODUCTION
Name and address
1.1 This evidence statement has been written by Chris McNeill, Director of Spade Consultants Pty Ltd. Spade Consultants is located at Suite 1, 1396 Malvern Road, Glen Iris.
Area of expertise
1.2 I hold a Bachelor of Economics (Monash) and have 26 years commercial and economic experience in the manufacturing, property, construction and urban development sectors. Details relevant to my experience and expertise in this matter are contained in summary form in Appendix A to this statement of evidence. I am sufficiently expert to complete this report because of the relevant experience listed in Appendix A and my extensive involvement and background in economic and urban policy matters.
Instructions
1.3 I have been requested by David King of Kings Lawyers to provide an assessment of the demand for and supply of rural-residential land in Warrnambool. I understand my client, Mr Graeme Rodger, is the owner of land in Wangoom Road that Mr Rodger seeks to develop as a low density housing estate.
Process and Methodology
1.4 In preparing this evidence statement I have undertaken the following tasks:
♠ Reviewed amendment documents for Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme as far as they are relevant to the assessment I have undertaken.
♠ Considered the current and proposed planning context relevant to the issue of land supply and demand;
♠ Examined and compared the various statistical information areas for which data relevant to the Warrnambool area is captured and presented;
♠ Reviewed recent population growth;
♠ Considered population and dwelling projections and forecasts;
♠ Reviewed the supply of broadhectare land available and, in particular and the supply of land for rural-residential development (defined as land in the Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zone) in the greater Warrnambool area; and
♠ Considered the adequacy of rural-residential land supply and the implications for Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme;
3 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Reports reviewed
1.5 In preparing this report I have considered and taken into account the following reports and materials:
♠ Warrnambool Planning Scheme
♠ Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme documentation
♠ Victoria In Future 2015
♠ Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy (2013)
♠ Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015)
♠ Warrnambool City Council population forecasts (id consulting)
♠ Urban Development Program (Regional Residential Report - Warrnambool, 2011)
1.6 I wish to record that I was a Sessional Member of Planning Panels Victoria between November 2005 and May 2013.
1.7 Abbreviations and terms used:
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics Council Warrnambool City Council City City of Warrnambool VIF 2015 Victoria In Future (2015 version)
4 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
2. WARRNAMBOOL: REGIONAL CONTEXT
Background
2.1 Warrnambool is the major regional centre of Victoria’s south-western region. Located 256 kilometres (3 hours) south-west of Melbourne, Warrnambool is the commercial, retail and administrative hub of south-western Victoria.
2.2 Warrnambool is located within the City of Warrnambool. The municipal boundary is relatively compact and incorporates the main urban area of Warrnambool as well as a number of satellite districts and localities such as Allansford and Bushfield-Woodford.
2.3 Figure 1 provides a context map showing the urban centre of Warrnambool along with surrounding satellite centres.
Map 1: Warrnambool Local Context Map
Source: Google Maps (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd)
Note: For the purposes of this evidence statement, the satellite townships of Woodford, Bushfield (often referred to as Bushfield-Woodford), Allansford, Mailors Flat and Cudgee are relevant. It should be noted that Mailors Flat and Cudgee are located outside the City of Warrnambool municipal boundary in neighbouring Moyne Shire.
5 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
3. THE SUBJECT LAND
3.1 The Subject Land (Image 1) is located south of Wangoom Road and west of Horne Road and comprises an area of approximately 50 hectares. The Subject Land is presently located in the Farming Zone.
Image 1: The Subject Land
Source: Google Earth Pro (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd)
6 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
3.2 While the land bounded by Wangoom Road, Horne Road, Boiling Down Road and Aberline Road is identified within a long term growth area and is expected to be developed for the purposes of conventional density housing, Mr Rodger, along with several neighbouring landowners at the Horne Road end of the long term growth area, wish to develop their land as a low density housing estate.
3.3 A concept plan (Figure 1) provides an indicative layout of the proposed low density area which comprises an area of around 145 hectares. The concept plan envisages a lot yield of around 270 lots, the creation of a buffer area between conventional density housing to the west and the Horne Road industrial area to the east and restoration of Russells Creek including open space links towards the conventional density residential area to the west. Unlike other rural-residential areas in the satellite townships around Warrnambool, the concept plan anticipates the low density lots to be fully serviced with town water and sewer available.
Figure 1: Low Density Development Concept Plan
Source: TGM Pty Ltd
7 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
4. PLANNING CONTEXT AND AMENDMENT C93
4.1 In this section of my evidence statement I consider and, where relevant, provide comments on:
Relevant state policies in the Warrnambool Planning Scheme Proposed amendments to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme
Current zoning
4.2 The Subject Land (identified in Map 2 in blue shading with a red outline) is presently in the Farming Zone. Amendment C93 does not propose to rezone the Subject Land.
Map 2: Planning scheme map highlighting subject land in context with eastern Warrnambool
Source: Planning Schemes Online (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd
8 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
State Policy
4.3 Clause 11.02 of the State Planning Policy Framework includes under ‘Strategies’ the need to:
Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur. Residential land supply will be considered on a municipal basis, rather than a town-by-town basis.
4.4 I make the following observations in relation to Clause 11.02 as outlined in paragraph 4.2:
♠ State Policy refers to the consideration of land supply at a municipal level. In my opinion, there is some ambiguity as to how to interpret the adequacy of land supply at a local level against the needs of the municipality. The need for discrete assessments on a centre by centre basis is particularly relevant in some regional and rural areas where the particulars of demand and supply may vary significantly between urban centres and, in many instances, a measure of the adequacy of land supply is frequently undertaken against a particular urban centre rather than at a municipal level. Notably, a number of municipalities address this issue in local policy by nominating supply benchmarks for specific urban areas cited for growth.
♠ The strategy calls for at least a 15 year supply of land to meet expected demand. The fact the benchmark is cited as a minimum is frequently overlooked in strategic planning documents. It is my opinion that supply benchmarks are not supposed to be breached but rather maintained through the planning cycle (ie between updates of Structure Plans) at least at the benchmark level.
4.5 Also in Clause 11.02, under ‘Policy Guidelines’ it is stated that:
Planning must consider as relevant:
Victorian Government population projections and land supply estimates.
Proposed Local Policy under Amendment C93
4.6 Proposed Clause 21.01 outlines the Municipal Profile, Council Vision and Strategic Direction. Proposed Clause 21.02-2 provides an overview of Key Issues faced by the municipality. These include:
Housing supply, choice and affordability – Over the next two decades, Warrnambool’s population is projected to age and household sizes are expected to continue to get smaller. Dwelling sizes however, are anticipated to increase. Careful planning is required to ensure future populations have access to a diverse range of housing options. [Warrnambool City- Wide Housing Strategy]
4.7 Proposed Clause 21.01-4 deals with the Strategic Directions required to implement Council’s Vision. Under the sub-section titled Housing it is stated that:
380 hectares of land on the eastern side of Aberline Road has been identified as a future long-term growth area. This area is likely to contain a mix of uses, such as residential and industrial uses, subject to detailed structure planning. [Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy]
It is noted the Subject Land is located within the area identified as ‘long term growth area’.
9 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
4.8 Proposed Clause 21.02 deals with Settlement. Proposed Clause 21.02-2 addresses the supply of urban land and states that:
Warrnambool City is forecast to grow at 1.4% per annum over the next 20 years. By 2031, the City is expected to be home to approximately 43,000 people. Based on forecast growth and household sizes, 225 new dwellings need to be constructed per year to meet demand. [Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy]
4.9 In proposed Clause 21.02-2, Objective 1 seeks to “direct urban growth to identified growth areas in order to protect productive rural areas and achieve a more compact sustainable urban area”. Strategies to achieve this include:
1.2 Support increased residential densities in greenfield growth areas within close proximity to existing and/or planned transport corridors, activity centres and open space. [Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy]
1.3 Ensure new residential neighbourhoods provide a mix of housing suited to the needs of a diverse range of household types. [Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy]
4.10 In proposed Clause 21.02-2, Objective 2 seeks to “ensure that rural living and low density residential development are environmentally sustainable”. Strategies to achieve this include:
2.1 Discourage rural living and low-density residential subdivision where it would prejudice long-term residential development
2.2 Limit rural living development and low density residential development to existing zone land in Bushfield, Woodford and Allansford.
10 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
5. PROJECTED POPULATION AND DWELLING GROWTH
5.1 In this section of my Evidence Statement, I consider future population and dwelling forecasts and projections for Warrnambool.
Recent population growth
5.2 The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded an Estimated Residential Population of 32,667 at the 2011 national census of population housing. This represented an increase of 1,708 persons over the population recorded at the 2006 national census (341 persons per annum).
5.3 Since 2011, the ABS estimates Warrnambool’s population has increased to 33,501 persons (30 June 2014), an increase of 834 since 2011 or 278 persons per annum.
Future population growth
5.4 The official Victorian Government population and dwelling projections – Victoria In Future 2015 (VIF2015) - provide projections at a municipal level. An additional set of population and dwelling forecasts have been undertaken by id forecast on behalf of Warrnambool City Council. The VIF 2015 projections and Council commissioned forecasts are provided at Table 1.
5.5 In terms of future dwelling requirements, there is little material difference between the VIF2015 projections (258 dwellings per annum) and the Council commissioned forecasts (245 dwellings per annum). Interestingly, there is a significant difference in the projected/forecast population at 2031 between the two with the id forecast model forecasting a significantly higher population but lower annual requirement for dwellings. This seemingly ‘odd’ outcome in respect of future dwelling requirements arises due to VIF2015 adopting a greater decrease in average household size over the projection period than the id forecast model.
Table 1: Comparison of VIF2015 and Council forecasts (2011 – 2036)
Year Avg. p.a. Population 2016 2031 2036 2016 to 2031 VIF 2015 33,795 40,670 N/A 458 id Forecasts 34,713 43,808 46,762 606
Dwellings 2016 2031 2036 2016 to 2031 VIF 2015 14,980 18,846 N/A 258 id Forecasts 15,094 18,762 19,936 245
Source: VIF 2015 (Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
5.6 The Warrnambool City-wide Housing Strategy (2013) adopts a lower dwelling demand figure of 225 dwellings per annum.
11 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
5.7 While there is not a major difference between the annual demand numbers provided in the VIF2015 projections, the id forecast figures and the figure used in the Warrnambool City-wide Housing Strategy (2013), the difference between the highest figure (VIF2015) and lowest (Warrnambool City-wide Housing Strategy) amounts to almost 500 dwellings over a 15 year period.
Demand for Rural Residential allotments
5.8 The demand for specific dwelling and/or lot types (high density dwellings, medium density dwellings or lots, conventional density lots and rural-residential lots) is influenced to a significant extent by the available supply of well-located and well-presented stock. By extension, the supply of stock is influenced by the extent to which developers regard specific opportunities as commercially viable in nature.
5.9 The Urban Development Program (UDP) is the Victorian government’s official urban land supply monitor. The UDP completed a report on Warrnambool in 2011. While the report is now dated, it provides a useful snapshot of recent data and trends including in relation to non-urban lot construction. At section 4.2.4 (Non-Urban Lot Construction), the UDP notes that non-urban lot construction in Warrnambool represented 5% of all lot construction activity across the municipality between 2005/06 and 2010/11. Of this, it was noted that 96% was zoned Rural Living Zone with the majority being located in the Bushfield-Woodford area.
5.10 In my experience, if there is an available supply of well-presented and well-located rural residential allotments (in the Low Density Residential Zone or the Rural Living Zone) in a regional centre such as Warrnambool, the demand for larger lots is likely to be between 5% and 7.5% of total demand. The higher percentage is dependent on the availability of supply and the extent to which ‘lifestyle’ is a key component driving local demand. In the case of a regional coastal city such as Warrnambool, ‘lifestyle’ is an important drawcard for potential residents.
5.11 Based on this, the demand for rural-residential lots in Warrnambool in the future is likely to be between 11 and 17 lots per annum (Warrnambool City-wide Housing Strategy) and 13 and 19 lots per annum (VIF2015). Over the 15 year period, 2016 to 2031, this equates to between 165 and 285 rural-residential lots.
5.12 As with any demand scenario however, the smaller the spatial area or market segment, the more variability there is likely to be in actual take up rates. Accordingly, it is quite possible to see take up fluctuate wildly from one year to the next.
5.13 It should be noted that projecting population and dwelling demand is an imprecise science and actual growth is influenced by a range of factors, many of which are outside the control of Councils and planners. Moreover, the rate of growth is influenced by the:
♠ Population growth at a national and state level (which itself is driven by Federal Government policies such as immigration and monetary policy)
♠ competitiveness of land markets (and therefore lot prices);
♠ way in which new estates are presented to the market;
♠ flexibility that developers have in determining the rate and scale of new land releases; and
♠ way in which different urban centres interact (or compete) in attracting new residents.
12 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
6. LAND SUPPLY
6.1 In this section of my evidence I consider residential land supply in Warrnambool. While I consider the overall supply of land in Warrnambool, my primary focus is to establish the extent and quality of rural-residential supply.
Broadhectare and infill supply
6.2 The most recent assessment of land supply in Warrnambool is that carried out by Council as part of the suite of documents supporting the Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy and, subsequently, Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme. The Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015) measures broadhectare land supply and infill supply across the primary Warrnambool urban areas as well as Bushfield-Woodford and Allansford. It concludes there is a total of 6,321 potential lots comprising:
♠ 4,930 zoned broadacre lots (representing 78% of supply);
♠ 757 major infill lots and 12 (unzoned) future residential lots (12% of supply);
♠ 622 development ready infill lots (10% of supply).
6.3 Based on the demand level assumed in the Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy (225 dwellings per annum), this equates to 25.5 years of supply of zoned residential land across the municipality. If the higher VIF2015 dwelling demand level is adopted, there remains 22 years of zoned residential land across the municipality.
6.4 The Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015) is a well constructed document and I do not dispute its general conclusions around the adequacy of land supply in Warrnambool. The majority of future zoned supply is to be provided across several conventional density broadhectare development fronts.
Rural Residential Supply
6.5 The supply of rural-residential land (expressed in terms of potential lots) can be difficult to measure as, unlike conventional-density development, there is no ‘rule of thumb’ calculation available due to the variability in lot sizes.
6.6 Also, when rural-residential land is identified and/or zoned in satellite townships as is the case in Warrnambool, it frequently remains undeveloped for long periods of time. This is due to the relatively low demand level for rural-residential lots (in comparison with conventional density) and the questionable commercial viability of undertaking rural-residential development in locations where the take up of lots may take many years.
6.7 To better understand the nature of rural residential supply in Warrnambool, it is necessary to examine each supply area in some detail. Rural residential supply is provided in a number of distinct locations within the municipality. These include Warrnambool itself, Allansford and Bushfield-Woodford. Two additional locations, outside the municipal boundary, at Mailors Flat and Cudgee are also relevant.
13 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Warrnambool
6.8 There are three areas of rural residential development located within (or near to) the primary urban area of Warrnambool. All three areas are located on the eastern side of Warrnambool and all three areas are in the Rural Living Zone. These areas are highlighted in Image 2 within blue boundaries. The Subject Land is identified by a red boundary.
Image 2: Rural residential estates in Warrnambool
Source: Google Earth (23/12/15), image modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd
14 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
6.9 The first area is located along Hopkins Point Road (Map 3), east of the Hopkins River. It is well established and well presented in an area of high amenity with sea and river views. It occupies a market position at the high end of the local rural-residential market. For the most part, the area is built out though several areas of potential infill exist. The Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015) estimates a potential yield of 49 lots from resubdivision and infill development in the area within the Rural Living Zone.
Map 3: Hopkins Point Road Rural Residential area
Source: Planning Schemes Online
6.10 The second area (Map 4) is located immediately east of the Horne Road industrial area. It is well established and, by my estimate, was developed 25 to 30 years ago. The area appears to be fully built out.
15 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Map 4: Rodgers Road Rural Residential area
Source: Planning Schemes Online
6.11 The third area (Map 5) is located north of Wangoom Road and is largely built out though several lots present as future infill opportunities.
16 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Map 5: North of Wangoom Road Rural-residential area
Source: Planning Schemes Online
17 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Allansford
6.12 Allansford is 9.7 kilometres (10 minutes) east of Warrnambool on the south side of the Princes Highway. The town is serviced by a hotel and corner store along with school and sporting facilities. In recent years the town experienced urban consolidation in the form of new housing, primarily on already subdivided town subdivision lots.
Image 3: Allansford
Source: Good Earth Pro (26/1/2014)
6.13 Map 6 provides a aplanning scheme map of Allansford including the amount of land in the Low Density Residential Zone and the Rural Living Zone. The Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015) identifies several lots in the Low Density Residential Zone and the Rural Living Zone as representing potential minor infill opportunities.
18 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Map 6: Allansford
Source: Planning Schemes Online
Bushfield-Woodford
6.14 Bushfield-Woodford (Image 4) is located 10.3 kilometres (12 minutes) north of Warrnambool. All residential land is zoned either in the Low Density Residential Zone or the Rural Living Zone (Map 7) and the town is dispersed across several hills and valleys. While Bushfield-Woodford has a primary school and several community facilities, there are no retail services available.
6.15 I understand my client undertook a low density subdivision (Rodger Place) of around 30 lots approximately 25 years ago.
6.16 More recent development has occurred north of the Merri River in the Rural Living Zone around Cilmery Crescent. I understand this development has been on the market for around 8 years and it appears to be around 50% built out. I note that land is generally quite steep in gradient and, as a result, housing construction costs is likely to be significantly higher than average.
19 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Image 4: Bushfield-Woodford
Source: Good Earth Pro (26/1/2014)
6.17 The Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report estimates a potential yield of 101 lots from vacat lots and from land yet to be subdivided. While I believe this estimate is broadly accurate, my impression of Bushfield-Woodford is that additional development is likely to be relatively slow. I understand Bushfield-Woodford is not serviced by town water and sewer.
20 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Map 7: Bushfield-Woodford
Source: Planning Scheme Online
6.18 There are two additional areas of rural-residential supply within the broader Warrnambool area; Mailors Flat and Cudgee. Both are located in the Shire of Moyne.
21 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Mailors Flat
6.19 Mailors Flat (Image 5) is located 11.7 kilometres (13 minutes) north of Warrrnambool. Apart from a core area in the Township Zone, residential land is zoned either in the Low Density Residential Zone or the Rural Living Zone (Map 8). While Mailors Flat has several community facilities and several commercial businesses operate in the township, there are no convenience retail services available.
Image 5: Mailors Flat
Source: Google Earth (23/12/15)
6.20 There is a small conventional density subdivision (of perhaps 12 lots) under construction within the Township Zone area and several new houses have been constructed along the already existing Russells Road in the Low Density Residential Zone. My impression is that recent dwellings constructed along Russells Road represent ‘low hanging fruit’ in terms of residential development. Further subdivision of the area in the Low Density Residential Zone is likely to prove more costly and may represent a longer term proposition.
22 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
6.21 It is my understanding that neither town water nor sewer is available at Mailors Flat.
Map 8 Mailors Flat
Source: Planning Schemes Online
23 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
Cudgee
6.22 Cudgee (Image 6) is located 18.2 kilometres (17 minutes) east of Warrnambool and 28.9 kilometres (22 minutes) west of Terang. The town has some community facilities, including a primary school, but no convenience retail facilities. Although Cudgee is some distance from Warrnambool, there is little doubt it serves the greater Warrnambool area as a potential rural- residential destination.
6.23 Apart from a central area in the Township Zone, the balance of Cudgee is in the Low Density Residential Zone (Map 9). As with Mailors Flat, there is clear evidence of recent lot and housing construction activity along established roads. The test for the balance of the land in the Low Density Residential Zone is whether there is sufficient depth in the market and a potential commercial return in engaging in more costly development requiring new road construction.
Image 9: Cudgee
Source: Google Earth (26/1/14)
24 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
6.24 As with Bushfield-Woodford and Mailors Flat, I understand Cudgee is not serviced with town water or sewer.
Map 9: Cudgee
Source : Planning Schemes Online
Summary of rural residential supply
6.25 There is little doubt that, technically, sufficient land stocks exist within a 20 minute drive of Warrnambool in the Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zone to meet anticipated rural- residential demand.
6.26 There is doubt however as to whether this land:
will be delivered to the market in a timely manner is located in areas that meet market demand; and will be delivered at a standard expected of modern residential development.
25 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
7. IS THERE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RURAL-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN WARRNAMBOOL?
7.1 Based on an strict assessment of available land, it is likely there is an adequate supply of rural- residential land within a 20 minute drive of Warrnambool. However, this requires taking into account significant areas of rural-residential land at Mailors Flat and Cudgee, both of which are located outside the City of Warrnambool. Moreover, while both have significant areas of land in the Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zone, the extent to which development will occur is unknown. Both areas are at a distance from Warrnambool where their appeal is likely to be limited.
7.2 The supply of rural-residential land within the municipality itself is limited to remnant opportunities and vacant lots in the Hopkins Point Road area, north of Wangoom Road (considered to be very limited), several opportunities at Allansford (also considered to be very limited) and at Bushfield- Woodford. It is questionable as to whether there is sufficient supply remaining in these areas to meet the demand range outlined in Section 5 of my evidence statement.
7.3 The question becomes whether sufficient benefits may accrue to warrant the consideration of additional rural-residential land in the eastern part of the long term growth area identified between Aberline Road and Horne Road.
Benefits associated with a low density housing estate west of Horne Road
7.4 It is my understanding that Mr Rodger and other owners of the area identified at Section 3 (Figure 1) of my evidence statement propose a development in the Low Density Residential Zone. As I understand it, the concept plan contemplates lots of some 4,000 square metres along the eastern end of the development area near to Horne road. As the development progresses westward, lots are likely to be scaled back to around 2,000 square metres (the smallest lot permitted in the Low Density Residential Zone provided there is reticulated sewerage). While the concept plan remains conceptual at this point of time, I regard the Low Density Residential Zone as a relatively efficient zone in circumstances such as that in the long term growth area. While urban densities in the Low Density Residential Zone will be well below that achieved in a conventional density urban environment, the provision of reticulated sewerage provides the opportunity for a development that is significantly denser than that of most rural-residential developments.
7.5 The area presents as an opportunity to undertake a high quality low density estate with fully reticulated services. This would present as a stark contrast to the majority of rural-residential land in the greater Warrnambool area (particularly in the satellite townships) where reticulated services are not available. The area is also proximate to retail and commercial facilities and educational and community facilities.
7.6 Provision of an additional supply of high quality lifestyle lots to a regional location where ‘lifestyle’ plays an important role in drawing new residents to the area.
7.7 A development of this type provides a diversity of residential product on the fringe of the Warrnambool township that is in increasingly scarce supply.
7.8 Finally, the area provides the potential for a transitional area, or buffer, between the Horne Road industrial area to the east and what will be conventional density development to the west.
26 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
8. PROVISIONAL OPINION
The opinions I have expressed in this evidence statement are based on my experience and the experience and advice provided to me by the urban development industry. Subject to any limitations and exclusions, my opinions are complete and accurate in every respect.
I am satisfied through my research and enquiries that the opinions I have expressed are reasonable in regard to the matters discussed in this evidence statement.
9. DECLARATION
I have made all the enquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld from the Planning Panel.
Chris McNeill Director Spade Consultants Pty Ltd
27 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
APPENDIX A
SUMMARY OF RELEVANT EXPERIENCE
CHRIS MCNEILL Director Spade Consultants Pty Ltd
Qualifications Bachelor of Economics (Monash)
Professional Affiliations Member, Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association
Expertise ♠ Economics ♠ Project Feasibility Analysis ♠ Due Diligence ♠ Land Supply and Demand analysis ♠ Urban Planning and Development policy analysis ♠ Planning Scheme Amendments ♠ Negotiations, consultations and facilitation ♠ Contract administration ♠ Project Management ♠ Economic and demographic projections and forecasting
Professional Summary Before entering private practice Chris McNeill was Policy Director with the Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victoria) for four years specialising in the provision of policy analysis and advice. With extensive knowledge and experience in urban and regional economics he has been responsible for a significant number of submissions made by the UDIA at a federal, state and local government level.
Prior to the UDIA, Chris spent several years working as a consultant at Ernst and Young. Other relevant experience includes the role of Commercial Manager at ADI Engineering and a Commercial Management role at Siemens Limited, which included an extended period of study and work in Germany.
Chris has served on a number of government consultative and advisory committees including:
♠ Member Wyndham Committee for Smart Growth ♠ Alternate Member Melton Committee for Smart Growth ♠ Activity Centres Thematic Working Group ♠ Urban Development Program – Development Industry Working Group ♠ Urban Development Program – industrial Land Advisory Council ♠ Melbourne Water Drainage Scheme Review Group ♠ Central Regional Water Strategy Stakeholder Reference Group ♠ Sustainable Neighbourhood Provisions – Stakeholder Reference Group
28 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016
He has authored, co-authored and/or presented several substantial policy submissions including:
♠ Productivity Commission – Inquiry into First Home Ownership ♠ Productivity Commission – Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation ♠ Our Water Our Future (Green Paper) - Submission ♠ Department of Infrastructure – Draft Public Transport Guidelines for Land Use Development
Chris was a Sessional Member of Planning Panels Victoria between November 2005 and May 2013.
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