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Statement of Evidence of Chris Mcneill

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Statement of Evidence of Chris Mcneill STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF CHRIS MCNEILL Warrnambool Planning Scheme Amendment C93 Evidence Statement prepared for Planning Panels Victoria by: Chris McNeill Director Spade Consultants Suite 1, 1396 Malvern Road Glen Iris VIC 3146 March 2016 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 CONTENTS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 2 1 INTRODUCTION 3 2 WARRNAMBOOL: REGIONAL CONTEXT 5 3 THE SUBJECT LAND 6 4 PLANNING CONTEXT AND AMENDMENT C93 8 5 PROJECTED POPULATION AND DWELLING GROWTH 11 6 LAND SUPPLY 13 7 IS THERE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RURAL-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN WARRNAMBOOL? 26 8 PROVISIONAL OPINION 27 9 DECLARATION 27 APPENDIX A (SUMMARY OF RELEVANT EXPERIENCE) 28 1 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS a) Warrnambool is the major regional centre of Victoria’s south-west region with a population of more than 34,000 persons. The city is expected to experience solid growth in the future generating a demand for new dwellings of between 225 and 258 per annum. b) Dwelling growth is expected to be met by a range of dwelling typologies with high and medium density dwellings, conventional density development and rural-residential development combining to satisfy the city’s housing needs. Rural-residential growth, which is accommodated in the Low Density Zone and Rural Living Zone, can be expected to comprise between 5% and 7.5% of future housing needs, depending on the availability of supply. This equates to a need for between 11 and 19 lots per annum depending on the demand scenario adopted. c) The majority of future rural-residential supply is located in small satellite townships and districts outside the Warrnambool urban area. It is my understanding that most of these areas do not have access to town water or sewer. Additionally, the majority do not have ready access to convenience retail facilities. d) The city is well provided for in terms of broadhectare development land for conventional density housing. Warrnambool City Council estimates there is around 25 years of available zoned supply in broadhectare and infill supply. e) A long term growth area has been identified in the Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy (2013) located east of the city between Aberline Road and the Horne Road industrial area. Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme seeks to preserve the long term growth area for conventional density residential development. Mr Graeme Rodger and other landowners at the eastern end of the long term growth area wish to develop their land as a fully serviced low density residential estate. f) There are a number of benefits associated with the development of land at the eastern end of the long term growth area as a low density residential estate. These include: Provision of a high quality and fully serviced low density residential area on the edge of Warrnambool’s primary urban area; Decreased reliance on poorly serviced outlying townships for the provision of rural- residential lots; Greater diversity of housing product within the primary urban area of Warrnambool; Provision of lifestyle opportunities in a coastal location where ‘lifestyle’ is a key drawcard for new residents; and The opportunity for a transitional area (or buffer) between the Horne Road industrial area to the east and what will be conventional density development to the west. 2 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 1. INTRODUCTION Name and address 1.1 This evidence statement has been written by Chris McNeill, Director of Spade Consultants Pty Ltd. Spade Consultants is located at Suite 1, 1396 Malvern Road, Glen Iris. Area of expertise 1.2 I hold a Bachelor of Economics (Monash) and have 26 years commercial and economic experience in the manufacturing, property, construction and urban development sectors. Details relevant to my experience and expertise in this matter are contained in summary form in Appendix A to this statement of evidence. I am sufficiently expert to complete this report because of the relevant experience listed in Appendix A and my extensive involvement and background in economic and urban policy matters. Instructions 1.3 I have been requested by David King of Kings Lawyers to provide an assessment of the demand for and supply of rural-residential land in Warrnambool. I understand my client, Mr Graeme Rodger, is the owner of land in Wangoom Road that Mr Rodger seeks to develop as a low density housing estate. Process and Methodology 1.4 In preparing this evidence statement I have undertaken the following tasks: ♠ Reviewed amendment documents for Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme as far as they are relevant to the assessment I have undertaken. ♠ Considered the current and proposed planning context relevant to the issue of land supply and demand; ♠ Examined and compared the various statistical information areas for which data relevant to the Warrnambool area is captured and presented; ♠ Reviewed recent population growth; ♠ Considered population and dwelling projections and forecasts; ♠ Reviewed the supply of broadhectare land available and, in particular and the supply of land for rural-residential development (defined as land in the Low Density Residential Zone and Rural Living Zone) in the greater Warrnambool area; and ♠ Considered the adequacy of rural-residential land supply and the implications for Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme; 3 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 Reports reviewed 1.5 In preparing this report I have considered and taken into account the following reports and materials: ♠ Warrnambool Planning Scheme ♠ Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme documentation ♠ Victoria In Future 2015 ♠ Warrnambool City-Wide Housing Strategy (2013) ♠ Warrnambool Residential Land Supply Report (2015) ♠ Warrnambool City Council population forecasts (id consulting) ♠ Urban Development Program (Regional Residential Report - Warrnambool, 2011) 1.6 I wish to record that I was a Sessional Member of Planning Panels Victoria between November 2005 and May 2013. 1.7 Abbreviations and terms used: ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics Council Warrnambool City Council City City of Warrnambool VIF 2015 Victoria In Future (2015 version) 4 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 2. WARRNAMBOOL: REGIONAL CONTEXT Background 2.1 Warrnambool is the major regional centre of Victoria’s south-western region. Located 256 kilometres (3 hours) south-west of Melbourne, Warrnambool is the commercial, retail and administrative hub of south-western Victoria. 2.2 Warrnambool is located within the City of Warrnambool. The municipal boundary is relatively compact and incorporates the main urban area of Warrnambool as well as a number of satellite districts and localities such as Allansford and Bushfield-Woodford. 2.3 Figure 1 provides a context map showing the urban centre of Warrnambool along with surrounding satellite centres. Map 1: Warrnambool Local Context Map Source: Google Maps (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd) Note: For the purposes of this evidence statement, the satellite townships of Woodford, Bushfield (often referred to as Bushfield-Woodford), Allansford, Mailors Flat and Cudgee are relevant. It should be noted that Mailors Flat and Cudgee are located outside the City of Warrnambool municipal boundary in neighbouring Moyne Shire. 5 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 3. THE SUBJECT LAND 3.1 The Subject Land (Image 1) is located south of Wangoom Road and west of Horne Road and comprises an area of approximately 50 hectares. The Subject Land is presently located in the Farming Zone. Image 1: The Subject Land Source: Google Earth Pro (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd) 6 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 3.2 While the land bounded by Wangoom Road, Horne Road, Boiling Down Road and Aberline Road is identified within a long term growth area and is expected to be developed for the purposes of conventional density housing, Mr Rodger, along with several neighbouring landowners at the Horne Road end of the long term growth area, wish to develop their land as a low density housing estate. 3.3 A concept plan (Figure 1) provides an indicative layout of the proposed low density area which comprises an area of around 145 hectares. The concept plan envisages a lot yield of around 270 lots, the creation of a buffer area between conventional density housing to the west and the Horne Road industrial area to the east and restoration of Russells Creek including open space links towards the conventional density residential area to the west. Unlike other rural-residential areas in the satellite townships around Warrnambool, the concept plan anticipates the low density lots to be fully serviced with town water and sewer available. Figure 1: Low Density Development Concept Plan Source: TGM Pty Ltd 7 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 4. PLANNING CONTEXT AND AMENDMENT C93 4.1 In this section of my evidence statement I consider and, where relevant, provide comments on: Relevant state policies in the Warrnambool Planning Scheme Proposed amendments to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme Current zoning 4.2 The Subject Land (identified in Map 2 in blue shading with a red outline) is presently in the Farming Zone. Amendment C93 does not propose to rezone the Subject Land. Map 2: Planning scheme map highlighting subject land in context with eastern Warrnambool Source: Planning Schemes Online (modified by Spade Consultants Pty Ltd 8 Evidence Statement of Chris McNeill Amendment C93 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme March 2016 State Policy 4.3 Clause 11.02 of the State Planning Policy Framework includes under ‘Strategies’ the need to: Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur.
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