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Vision 2050 Report Vision 2050 Singapore, 12 February 2011 Report The passenger is at the core of our 2050 thinking. Over the last four decades the real cost of travel has fallen by about 60% and the number of travelers increased tenfold. We must continue to provide this great value to individual consumers and to society. To do so we need the right technology, efficient and sufficient infrastructure. And we need financial sustainability. Nobody has all the answers or a crystal ball to see the industry in 2050. But there was consensus among all present that there is strategic value in thinking together. And there was general consensus that one of the industry’s biggest challenges is to evolve from the financial disaster of a partial deregulation that has created fierce competition among airlines but without giving them the normal commercial freedoms to do business. The industry is sick. To protect the value that aviation delivers to consumers, companies, countries and the global economy, we need a common vision to change as we move forward. Giovanni Bisignani Singapore, 12 February 2011 Vision 2050 Singapore, 12 February 2011 International Air Transport Association Montreal — Geneva Report NOTICENOTICE DISCLAIMER.DISCLAIMER. The The information information contained contained in inthis this publicationpublication is subjectis subject to toconstant constant review review in inthe the light light of ofchanging changing government government requirements requirements and and regula- regula- tions.tions. No No subscriber subscriber or orother other reader reader should should act act on on thethe basis basis of ofany any such such information information without without referring referring to toapplicable applicable laws laws and and regulations regulations and/or and/or without without takingtaking appropriate appropriate professional professional advice. advice. Although Although everyevery effort effort has has been been made made to toensure ensure accuracy, accuracy, the the InternationalInternational Air Air Transport Transport Association Association shall shall not not be be heldheld responsible responsible for for any any loss loss or ordamage damage caused caused by by errors,errors, omissions, omissions, misprints misprints or ormisinterpretation misinterpretation of of thethe contents contents hereof. hereof. Furthermore, Furthermore, the the International International AirAir Transport Transport Association Association expressly expressly disclaims disclaims any any andand all allliability liability to toany any person person or orentity, entity, whether whether a a purchaserpurchaser of ofthis this publication publication or ornot, not, in inrespect respect of of anythinganything done done or oromitted, omitted, and and the the consequences consequences of ofanything anything done done or oromitted, omitted, by byany any such such person person or or entityentity in reliancein reliance on on the the contents contents of ofthis this publication. publication. Note: Unless specified otherwise, all dollar ($) figures in this report refer to US dollars (US$) VisionVision 2050 2050 © ©2011 2011 International International Air AirTransport Transport Association. Association. All rightsAll rights reserved. reserved. MontrealMontreal — Geneva — Geneva Table of Contents Foreword ......................................................................................................................................... iii Section 1. Profitability ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Industry value creation ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1.1 The value provided by the airline industry ............................................................... 4 1.1.1.1 The size of the industry .......................................................................................... 4 1.1.1.2 Costs and prices ................................................................................................... 7 1.1.1.3 Quality.................................................................................................................11 1.1.1.4 Summary .............................................................................................................14 1.1.2 Airline profitability ........................................................................................................14 1.1.2.1 Airlines that have created shareholder value ........................................................14 1.1.2.2 Industry level profitability......................................................................................17 1.1.2.3 Value creation in the wider airline industry value chain .........................................18 1.2 Understanding airline profitability: what drives the industry’s poor financial returns? ..........................................................................................................21 1.2.1 Actors in the airline industry .....................................................................................22 1.2.1.1 Customers ..........................................................................................................22 1.2.1.2 Suppliers .............................................................................................................23 1.2.1.3 Potential entrants ................................................................................................26 1.2.1.4 Substitutes ..........................................................................................................26 1.2.1.5 Airline rivals .........................................................................................................26 1.2.2 Industry scope and segmentation ...........................................................................29 1.2.3 Five Forces in the airline industry ............................................................................30 1.2.3.1 Intensity of rivalry .................................................................................................31 1.2.3.2 The threat of new entrants ...................................................................................37 1.2.3.3 Bargaining power of customers ...........................................................................38 1.2.3.4 Bargaining power of suppliers .............................................................................40 1.2.3.5 The threat of substitutes ......................................................................................42 1.2.4 The role of government ..............................................................................................43 1.2.5 Implications ..................................................................................................................45 1.3 Different angles of view ........................................................................................................47 1.4 Improving airline profitability: towards a path to sustainable industry returns ..........50 1.4.1 Why does airline profitability matter? .....................................................................50 1.4.2 Is industry structure already improving? ................................................................52 IATA Vision 2050 i 1.4.3 How failures in airline industry structure can be overcome ..............................53 1.4.3.1 Reduce artificial barriers to exit and consolidation ...............................................53 1.4.3.2 Reduce artificial incentives for entry and capacity expansion ...............................54 1.4.3.3 Change the way airlines compete ........................................................................55 1.4.3.4 Reduce unnecessary system costs through policy changes and better coordination .......................................................................................55 1.4.3.5 Recommendations to avoid .................................................................................56 1.4.4 Conclusions: moving to action ................................................................................56 Section 2. Consumer .........................................................................................................59 2.1 Discussion highlights.............................................................................................................59 2.2 Thought piece: an optimistic view of the customer of the future ................................60 2.2.1 The world in 2050 ......................................................................................................60 2.2.2 The airline industry in 2050 ......................................................................................61 2.2.3 Who are our customers in 2050? ..........................................................................61 2.2.4 What are our customers’ priorities in 2050? .......................................................62 Section 3. Infrastructure .................................................................................................65 3.1 Discussion highlights.............................................................................................................65 3.1.1 ANSPs ...........................................................................................................................65 3.1.2 Airports ..........................................................................................................................65
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