Climate Impacts on Agriculture

David I Gustafson, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Environmental & Ag Policy Modeling Lead

Monsanto Company

Crystal City, VA 24 February 2012 Outline • Background – Ag in the spotlight • US National Climate Assessment (NCA) – New process for the 2013 NCA report – Impacts on crops and livestock • Comment on a critical policy need

Agriculture is in the Global Spotlight

? “Like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations [sic]” – Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (the movie)

CHAPTER 11

18 The nations were angry; and Your wrath has come. The time has come for judging the dead, and for rewarding Your servants the prophets and Your The time has come … saints and those who reverence Your Name, both small and great – and for destroying those who for destroying those who destroy the earth. … destroy the earth. CHAPTER 16 Then I heard a loud voice from the temple saying to the seven angels, “Go, pour out the seven bowls of God’s wrath on the earth.” 2 The first angel went and poured out his bowl on the land, and ugly and painful sores broke out on the people who had the mark of the beast and … every living thing in worshiped his image. 3 The second angel pouted out his bowl on the the sea died. sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died. 4 The third angel poured out his bowl on the

rivers and springs of water, and they became blood. …

8 The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and sun was given power to scorch people with fire. 9 They were seared by intense heat and they They were seared by cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him. intense heat …

Painting by McKendree Robbins Long, Sr. US Global Change Research Program

Congressional Mandate: “To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States Research Program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human- induced and natural processes of global change.” Global Change Research Act (1990), § 106

• …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which – – integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; – analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and – analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. Previous National Climate Assessments

Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009)

http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/

Target date for next NCA: 2013 What’s new for the 2013 NCA?

• Sustainable process with multiple products over time • New topics, cross-sectoral studies • Consistent national matrix of indicators • Central coordination, multiple partners, distributed process • Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity • Recognizes international context • Engagement and communications focus • Web-based data and tools for decision support • Process workshops to establish methodologies

NCADAC: National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee • 60 member federal advisory committee, including 45 non-federal members and 16 federal ex-officio representatives – Chair: Jerry Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory – Vice Chairs: T.C. Richmond, Van Ness Feldman GordonDerr, and Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University – 13 member Executive Secretariat • Wide variety of expertise and perspectives • Providing advice on both the 2013 Report AND on the ongoing process • 62 Convening Lead Authors and 180 Lead Authors have been named for 30 chapters; will be announced shortly NCADAC Executive Secretariat

• Jerry Melillo, Chair • Jo-Ann Leong Marine Biological Laboratory Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology and • Terese Richmond, Vice-Chair Oregon State University Van Ness Feldman Gordon Derr, LLP • Susanne Moser • Gary Yohe, Vice-Chair Susanne Moser Research & Consulting Wesleyan University and Stanford University • James Buizer • Richard Moss University of Arizona University of Maryland and Pacific • David Gustafson Northwest National Laboratory Monsanto Company • Lindene Patton • Sharon Hays Zurich Financial Services Computer Sciences Corporation • Andrew Rosenberg • Thomas Karl University of New Hampshire, Subcommittee on Global Change Conservation International Research • Donald Wuebbles University of Illinois

2013 Report Production Timeline

A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Oct 1, Mar 1, May 1 Aug 1 Oct 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Jun1 Jul 1 Oct 1 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013

CLA Deadline for new Expressions of mtg. (Jan. information included in Interest 2012) draft report (July 31, 2012) Development Add Of technical input information only in Author teams incorporate Technical Input response to and other sources , draft chapters and review suggest downstream products and comments processes to the NCADAC (deadline: NCADAC to Rough April 30, consider CLAs and editors synthesize layout NRC , 2013) revisions chapters and NCADAC reviews Agency, (from full document and agencies Public and EOP) review CLAs and and approve N report Draft chapters due NCADAC Request to NRC and R (June 1, 2012) revise draft USGCRP agencies to C hear preliminary presentations of potential key Document conclusions to comments, Agency identify potential and review 2nd NRC SIGN OFF “show-stoppers” editors to Web and Review: Were (July, 2012) judge summary comments adequacy of layout and adequately responses printing addressed? (iterative process) Executive Office of the President comments and adopts Latest Climate News: Hot, Wet & Dry

• 2010 was wettest year on record and tied with 1998 as the hottest • Past Oklahoma summer (Jun-Aug, 2011) was hottest ever for any US state, other states with record hot 2011 summers: LA, NM, TX – Severe, yield-destroying drought throughout these states • Historic flooding for many regions around the world: – Australia and Brazil (Jan 2011), US (Apr-Sep 2011), Pakistan (Jul 2010) • Russia’s summer 2010 heat-wave sparked numerous fires, doubled the daily death-rate in Moscow (to 700/day), cut the wheat harvest by 38%, and caused Russia’s President Medvedev to proclaim: “What's happening with the planet's climate right now needs to be a wake-up call to all of us to take a more energetic approach to countering the global changes to the climate.” • This US winter (2011/12) exceptionally mild Moscow residents (August 2010) Lev Maslov/AFP/Getty Images

N Hemisphere Surface Warming is at Upper End of IPCC† Model Forecasts †Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5 January 2007 was March 2008 first anomaly > 4°F was the second IPCC 4 95% upper bound Mt. Pinatubo eruption 3 IPCC moving average (7 yr) expected 2 IPCC 95% lower

bound

° ( 0 datum is 20th century mean -1

-2 Acceleration since late 1960’s -3

Northern Hemisphere Land Warming Warming Land Hemisphere Northern northern hemisphere land surface monthly temperatures -4 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 data source: NOAA (2011) Prospects for Mitigation are Increasingly Dim

• Warming due to human GHG’s already Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxide Methane Man-Made GHG

) 2

equals a 2% increase in solar radiation 2.5 – Like moving earth million miles closer to sun 2 – Sunspot-related variations are only 0.1% 1.5 1 0.5

• Atmospheric CO now approaching 390 Forcing Relative to (W/m the1750 Year 2 0 ppm and continues to accelerate 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 – No effective GHG agreements in view – Record jump (8%) in emissions in 2010

• Agriculture will be forced to deal with intensifying climate change impacts – Increasing heat stress – More moisture stress (too dry & too wet)

Planting Zone Shifts Already Observed

15 15

12 12 North (NE, ND, SD) South (KS, OK, TX) Average annual temperatures (°C) Average annual temperatures (°C) Average monthly precipitation (cm) Average monthly precipitation (cm)

9 9

C) & P (cm) P & C) C) & P (cm) P & C) ° ° T P

6 6

T ( T T ( T P 3 3

solid lines are 7 yr means solid lines are 7 yr means dashed lines are linear fits to 40 year trend dashed lines are linear fits to 40 year trend 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 • Trending warmer and wetter, with recurring drought • Rate of change somewhat faster in the North

Data Source: NOAA NCDC, state-composites Predicted Livestock • Forage quality generally Impacts declines with increasing CO2 • Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes likely to reduce livestock productivity US Yields Keeping Pace with Current Warming

300 1500 observed gain is observed gain is

Corn 1.63% per year Cotton 1.53% per year

200 1000 lb/A bu/A 100 500

smooth line is 7 yr mean smooth line is 7 yr mean 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 75 65 observed gain is Soybeans 1.29% per year 60 50 cotton: 0.35°F/decade

soybeans: 0.34°F/decade F

° 55

bu/A 25 50 smooth line is 7 yr mean 0 45 corn: 0.36°F/decade 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Mean reported US crop yields by year Mean annual temperatures in US cropping regions Data Source: USDA NASS Data Source: NOAA NCDC, state-composites, Trend-Lines: 1970-2010 (exponential fits) weighted by crop production Trend-Lines: 1970-2010 (linear fits) US Corn Yields Show Increased Resilience

180 170 160

150 1970-1996: CV = 11.4%

140 130 120 Actual 110

1997-2011: CV = 4.8% Trend Yield (bu/A) Yield Yield (bu/A) Yield 100 90 80 70 60 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Data Source: USDA NASS Integrated Modeling: Predicting Future Impacts

Climate change and supply Nitrogen access and fate

Liu et al., 2010

Water supply and balance Lobell et al., 2011

Deforestation and biodiversity

Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011

Integrated Models: link component models simulating climate, crop growth, economic, & environmental processes Barona et al., 2010 (underlying science/data often flawed & unverifiable) Critical Modeling Policy Need • Rampant increase in new regulatory uses of Integrated Modeling – Urgent need for transparency & standardization – Improvement of model components – Quality and quantity of input data – Rigorous verification & validation – Follow recent NRC report guidance

Thank you!