NEWS FEATURE NATURE|Vol 439|12 January 2006 Asteroid Itokawa dwarfs the shadow of a Japanese space probe (centre), whose mission was to collect a rock sample. through year for Japan’s space programme — had everything gone well. After a difficult A shot in the dark? decade, marked by a string of expensive satel- AP/JAXA lite and rocket failures and a tough budget environment, Japan merged its existing space Japan’s mission to collect a sample from a distant asteroid looks agencies in October 2003. to have ended in failure. Ichiko Fuyunoinvestigates how the The three agencies were the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) — Japan’s setback will affect Japan’s struggling space programme. main rocket and satellite developer; the Insti- tute of Space and Astronautical Science t was always a high-risk mission. No caused an eruption of noise in Hayabusa’s (ISAS), responsible for scientific missions; spacecraft has safely brought back a control room. and the smaller National Aerospace Labora- sample from the Solar System since the But the joy didn’t last long. Just days later, the tory. The merger was intended to cut costs ISoviet probe returned with lunar soil in the Japanese space agency, known as the Japan and revitalize a space programme that had 1970s. So when, on 25 November 2005, a team Aerospace Exploration Agency or JAXA, lost its way after a strong start in the 1970s from the Japanese space agency monitored the announced that it was highly unlikely that any and 1980s. descent of the Hayabusa spacecraft towards pellets had been released or any sample col- the bumpy surface of the asteroid Itokawa, lected. Mechanical problems had been detected Lost in space everyone in the control room was tense. Once in the probe back in July, but these troubles Today, the two-year-old JAXA has an ambi- Hayabusa was 360 metres above the asteroid, became catastrophic soon after the spacecraft tious wishlist for exploration over the next the touchdown command was issued. “I felt as landed on Itokawa. After the team lost commu- two decades, and a 2% budget increase for if all the people in the room were riding on it nication with the spacecraft in early December, 2006 — the first budget increase for Japan’s and descending together,” recalls Junya Tera- project manager Jun’ichiro Kawaguchi decided space programme in many years. But turning zono, the agency’s publications officer, who to delay Hayabusa’s return by three years to round Japan’s fortunes in space exploration was busy posting photos and live updates to a 2010 to give them more time to revive it. The will depend on whether it can find ways to website as the spacecraft descended. chances of a safe return look gloomy. improve its track-record without killing its Despite the risks, after it had travelled 2 bil- Hayabusa would have capped a break- ambitious spirit. lion kilometres, and spent three months imag- Critics say Japan tries to do too much with ing the 540-metre-long rock, hopes that “If you want to climb Mount too little. JAXA’s budget (¥180 billion for 2006) Hayabusa would bring back a souvenir from Everest or a small mountain, is a tenth of NASA’s, and less than half that of its trip were high. And on the morning of the European Space Agency or ESA (see graph 26 November, a signal from the craft suggest- either way you have to move up opposite). And, at ¥12-billion (US$100 mil- ing that it had fired pellets, designed to throw step by step.” — Masakazu Iguchi lion), Hayabusa cost only about half that of up rock fragments from the asteroid’s surface, NASA’s Stardust mission, which is set to return 132 ©2006 Nature PublishingGroup NATURE|Vol 439|12 January 2006 NEWS FEATURE to Earth with captured cometary dust There is no sign of that in JAXA’s on 15 January. Japan can afford fewer A DECADE OF SPACE BUDGETS 20-year vision for space exploration, missions, and so has fewer opportuni- released in April last year. Calling for ties to launch new technologies. The 20 lunar exploration and perhaps eventu- US military result is to stuff as many ideas as pos- 16 US civil ally manned spaceflight, the ambi- SOURCE: EUROCONSULT SOURCE: sible into one launch. Hayabusa cer- tious scope of the 20-year plan seems tainly carried a lot of hardware ‘firsts’. 12 at odds with current funding levels. Some of these, such as the Japanese 8 Since a peak in 1999, the Japanese ion-drive engine used to propel the space budget has shrunk by 20%. US$ (billions) US$ Europe civil spacecraft out to the asteroid, worked 4 Japan* fine. Others, such as the small surface Risk taker 0 Europe military probe Minerva, failed to deliver. Critics, including the Goldin commis- *includes 1992 1996 1998 1994 1990 military satellites sion, have long argued for a strategic 2002 2000 Tales of woe vision for Japan’s space programme — “Maybe sometimes Japan tries to do one that will help it set priorities, and too much for its resources,” says Andrew control over most design decisions, and inter- that will encourage better integration of the Cheng, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins actions between agencies and the manufactur- agencies that make up JAXA. University in Baltimore, Maryland, and a ers were limited. It is hoped that with more Since the merger, the three agencies have member of Hayabusa’s science team. “I’m responsibility, Japanese firms will gain the largely retained their separate cultures and happy to see very brave decisions and to expertise needed to allow the country to resisted being unified further. The vision doc- launch very complicated missions. All that is compete in the global satellite market. ument is a first important step, says John good,” adds Cheng. “But they cannot fail every Another key recommendation was to boost Logsdon, professor of space policy at George time either.” the efforts of systems engineers. Toshifumi Washington University in Washington DC. The year Hayabusa was launched was a Mukai, who heads a chief engineer’s office “JAXA is right now going through the process particularly troubled time for Japan’s space established in October 2005, says systems engi- to deal with bureaucratic reorganization,” he programme. In October 2003, the Midori-II neers do important work at the start of a project says. “It takes time.” Earth observation satellite failed. The follow- by defining mission requirements and identify- Decisions about human spaceflight and ing month, one of the Japanese flagship ing potential risks. Under the new system, chief Moon bases won’t be made anytime soon, so rockets, an H-IIA, had to be destroyed in mid- engineers operate independently of the project JAXA can focus on immediate priorities, such flight. Then the Mars probe Nozomi, in trou- managers, who are now required to share devel- as improving rocket reliability, says Kimikazu ble since 1998, was finally lost in December. opment data with others more openly. Iwase, director of the space development and And last summer, the main X-ray instrument But some JAXA officials are concerned that utilization division at the education ministry. on the joint US–Japan Suzaku telescope shut too much focus on risks, as well as constant Iwase attributes a successful H-IIA rocket down, reducing scientists’ ability to study reviews, will further weaken morale. “Just how launch in February 2005, the first for 15 black holes. to get prepared in the event of failures is months, to better pre-launch testing. Despite these troubles, many Japanese becoming daily work. I think that’s wrong,” Whatever Hayabusa does next, Kawaguchi’s space experts believe that Japan should not says Kawaguchi, who believes Japan must keep team has many busy months ahead analysing just try to catch up with Europe and the being adventurous. Many Japanese space the data and images sent back by the craft United States, but should blaze its own trail. experts are wary of adopting the approach before its descent. More than 1,500 high-reso- “Having ambitious dreams is good,” says taken by China’s space programme. Although lution pictures have revealed a rocky surface Masakazu Iguchi, head of the space activities China has had two successful astronaut mis- devoid of debris. This is in striking contrast to commission that reviews Japan’s space activi- sions, it uses off-the-shelf technology, which the highly weathered surface of the asteroid ties for the education ministry, which oversees many Japanese space experts dismiss as lack- Eros, which NASA’s Shoemaker spacecraft JAXA’s budget. But, he warns, “Japan should ing innovation. visited in 2001. move steadily towards its goals. If you want to Others worry that JAXA will become as Hayabusa did not achieve everything JAXA climb Mount Everest or a small mountain, cautious as NASA or ESA. “I think ESA is hoped for, but few question its engineering either way you have to move up step by step.” more conservative than JAXA, at least as and scientific achievements. “Whether or not Iguchi argues that the important thing is to reflected in design philosophy for spacecraft we ultimately get a sample returned to Earth, learn from failure. “I think JAXA understands and in mission operations,” Cheng says. He the mission still is a success from a science that,” he says. hopes Japan does not become too risk averse. point-of-view,” says Donald Yeomans of Under pressure to improve the perfor- NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in mance of Japan’s space programme’s after Pasadena, California, and US project sci- KYODO the 2003 disasters, politicians sought the entist for Hayabusa.