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TVS Srichakra Ltd.P65 SECTOR: AUTO ANCILLARY TVS Srichakra Ltd STOCK INFO. BLOOMBERG 19 July 2012 BSE Sensex: 17,185 SRTY.IN Buy REUTERS CODE S&P CNX: 5,216 TVSC.BO Initiating Coverage `326 (` CRORES) We recommend to BUY TVS Srichakra Ltd (TVSSL) for a one- Y/E MARCH FY12A FY13E FY13E year price target of `465 - 7XFY12 earnings. Net sales 1,396 1,512 1,694 INVESTMENT ARGUMENTS: EBITDA 131 141 156 Strong player in 2 wheeler tyres RPAT 40 51 67 Adspends to aid replacement market growth BV/Share (`) 184.8 234.2 303.5 Operating leverage to come into play Adj. EPS (`) 51.8 66.3 87.4 GROWTH DRIVERS EPS growth (%) 1.0 28 32 Strong player in 2 wheeler tyres: TVSSL, after MRF, is the 2nd P/E (x) 6.3 4.9 3.7 largest player in 2 wheeler tyres with sales of 1.67 cr 2-wheeler and P/BV (x) 1.8 1.4 1.1 3-wheeler tyres in a 6.7 cr 2/3 wheeler tyre market. The company is EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 3.8 3.2 a supplier to leading players in this segment such as Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors. The company has, also, been makring Div yld (%) 4.1 4.4 4.8 efforts to break into new OEM customers with positive results that ROE (%) 31 32 33 will over a period of time get reflected in numbers. The company RoCE (%) 26 26 27 derives 58% of its revenue from the OEM segment. As 2-wheeler sales grow 12-15% p.a. over the next 2-3 years, the company stands to gains as a leading OEM supplier to the industry. KEY FINANCIALS Shares Outstanding (cr) 0.8 Ad-spends to raise replacement market share: TVSSL has 2000 Market Cap. (` cr) 250 dealers selling its tyres on a nationwide basis. In FY12 derived only Market Cap. (US$ m) 45 30% of its revenues from the replacement market, even though the Past 3 yrs Sales Growth (%) 34% replacement market is 1.4x the OEM market. The company has begun Past 3 yrs NP Growth (%) 63% advertising on Television to familiarize potential buyers with its brand. This should help improve its business from this high margin segment. Operating leverage to provide boost to margins: TVSSL STOCK DATA expanded its capacity 3x over FY06-FY10 with further expansion in 52-W High/Low Range (`) 400/260 FY11/FY12. The costs related to the expansion in terms of depreciation Major Shareholders (as of March 2012) and interest will be distributed over higher volumes in the next 3 years Promoter 44.9 Institutions 0.1 with utilization close to 80-85% at the end of the period. As this fixed Public & Others 55.1 cost gets distributed over revenues 30% higher than in FY12 and with Average Daily Turnover(6 months) the decline in rubber and oil prices profit margins. Volume 3461 Valuations & View: We estimate profits to rise 70% by FY14 from Value (`cr) 0.11 1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%) 1/0/-2 FY12 levels. This will boost operating cash flows to `200cr 1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%) 3/4/-10 cummulative over the next 2 years. With low capex, we expect these cash flows to be used to retire\service debt and increase payout to shareholders. The repayment of debt with a resultant reduction in D/E to 1.1 from 2x today will see EV shift towards equity holders. This coupled with sustained 30%+ ROE should boost valuations from Maximum Buy Price : `350 ` the current 5xFY13E. A dividend of `13.5 per share gives a yield of 4% suggesting limited downsides to valuations. We recommend to BUY for a target of `465 - 7xFY13E earnings. Ravi Shenoy ([email protected]);Tel:+912230896865 TVS Srichakra Ltd CONCERNS Slowdown in Auto sales: Higher interest rates impact consumer buying in automotives segment. The rise in interest rates has lead to auto-loans moving beyond the 13% band where consumers start to feel the pinch. This could delay consumer purchases until interest rates cool down. However, this is a positive from the aftermarket perspective as higher vehicle costs will ensure greater replacement demand for parts. Raw material cost volatility: Raw materials cost stood at 67% of revenue in FY12. Pricing in OEM contracts are adjusted with a delay and hence sudden and steep rise in raw materials such as rubber and crude oil-derivatives will impact margins. As raw material prices have cooled down in the past 3 months, the risk to earnings from volatility is currently favourable. BACKGROUND TVS Shrichakra is part of the TVS Group. The company is a leading manufacturer of two-wheeler and three-wheeler tyres and enjoys a market share of 25%. With a network of over 2,050 dealers and 20 warehouses across the country, the company is a major supplier to TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and India Yamaha Motor. Company also exports to the US, Europe, Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. TVSSL earns 58% of its revenue from OE segment, 30% from the replacement segment and the rest 11% from exports.. FINANCIALS AND RECENT RESULTS TVSSL's 4Q results reflect enhanced overhead costs with operating costs flat y/y and 5% up q/q. A 24% rise in interest cost and almost doubling of depreciation are due to enhanced capacity, the benefits of which will come in years to come. Given the higher fixed costs, profits are down 39% y/y. Dividend for the year has been enhanced to `13.5 per share. Quarterly Performance ` CRORES QE MAR-11 QE DEC-11 QE MAR-12 % Y/Y % Q/Q Revenue 302.5 347.5 347.8 15% 0% Expenditure 277.0 323.0 322.1 16% 0% EBITDA (excl. Other income) 25.5 24.5 25.7 1% 5% Other Income 7.1 1.9 5.4 -24% 180% Interest 11.5 13.0 14.3 24% 10% EBIT 21.2 13.5 16.9 -20% 25% Depreciation 2.5 4.2 4.9 96% 16% Profit before tax 18.7 9.3 12.0 -36% 30% Tax 6.9 5.4 4.8 -31% -11% RPAT 11.8 3.8 7.2 -39% 88% EBIDTA (%) 8.4 7.1 7.4 Tax rate (%) 36.9 58.4 39.9 19 July 2012 2 TVS Srichakra Ltd IVRCL: Financials and Valuation TVS Srichakra Ltd - Financials & Valuation INCOME STATEMENT (`CRORE) RATIOS Y/E MARCH FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E Y/E MARCH FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E Net Sales 701 1,085 1,396 1,512 1,694 Adjusted EPS(`) 38.9 51.1 51.8 66.3 87.4 growth (%) 22 55 29 8 12 growth (%) 233.0 31.4 1.3 28.0 31.8 Other Income 6 12 13 13 13 Cash EPS(`) 54.3 71.8 79.0 93.5 117.4 Total Income 706 1,097 1,409 1,525 1,707 Book Value(`) 112.0 148.6 184.8 234.2 303.5 DPS(`) 10.0 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 Raw Material costs 432 691 944 1016 1138 Payout (Incl. Div. Tax)(%) 30 29 30 26 21 Staff Costs 54 84 96 110 123 Valuation (x) Other Expenses 150 220 239 258 290 P/E 8.4 6.4 6.3 4.9 3.7 Total Expenditure 636 995 1,278 1,384 1,551 Cash P/E 6.0 4.5 4.1 3.5 2.8 EBITDA 71 103 131 141 156 Price/Book Value 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 % of Net Sales 10 9 9 9 9 EV/EBITDA 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.2 Depreciation/Amortization 12 16 21 21 23 EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Finance Charges 16 30 55 50 40 Div. Yld(%) 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 PBT 43 57 55 71 93 Return Ratios (%) Tax 1418152026RoE 40 39.2 31.1 31.7 32.5 PAT 3039405167RoCE 24 27 26 26 27 growth (%) 233 31 1 28 32 Leverage (x) Debt/Equity (x) 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.1 PAT MARGIN 4 4 3 3 4 BALANCE SHEET (`CRORE) CASH FLOW STATEMENT (`CRORE) Y/E MARCH FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E Y/E MARCH FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E Equity Share Capital 8 8 8 8 8 PBT before EO items 43 57 55 71 93 Reserves 78 106 134 172 225 Add : Depreciation 12 16 21 21 23 Shareholders' Funds 86 114 142 179 232 Interest 16 30 55 50 40 Debt 174 256 303 288 258 (Inc)/Dec in WC 2 -66 -26 -16 -26 Net deferred taxes 7 10 13 13 13 Others -10 -27 -14 -22 -29 CF from Operating activities 62 10 90 102 102 Liabilities 268 380 458 480 503 (Inc)/Dec in Fixed assets -55 -66 -55 -25 -20 Net Block 112 155 179 199 196 Others -1 1111 Capital WIP 3 10 20 4 4 CF from Investing activities -56 -65 -71 -24 -19 Current Assets 315 481 575 618 682 Inc/(Dec) in debt 17 81 47 -15 -30 Inventories 155 264 300 325 364 Dividend paid -5 -5 -10 -11 -12 Sundry Debtors 119 174 190 205 230 Less: Interest paid -16 -30 -55 -50 -40 Cash and Bank Balances 9 5 6 8 8 Others -7 5000 Loans and Advances 32 37 79 79 79 CF from financing activities -10 52 -18 -76 -82 Current Liabilities & Provisions166 269 336 360 398 Net current assets 150 212 239 258 284 Inc/(Dec) in cash -5 -4 1 2 0 Add: Beginning balance 13 9568 Total Assets 268 380 458 480 503 Closing Balance 9 5688 19 July 2012 3 TVS Srichakra Ltd TVS Srichakra Ltd Valuation Chart (Historical PE) For more copies or other information, contact Retail: Vijay Kumar Goel Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038.
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