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Zelalem Dendir Nigani

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Zelalem Dendir Nigani Evaluating the vulnerability context of livelihoods and responses in a changing climate condition: insights for sustainable livelihood in different agro-ecologies of Gurage Zone Zelalem Dendir Nigani A Dissertation Submitted to the Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies Presented in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies (Environment and Development Studies) Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa, Ethiopia July 2020 Evaluating the vulnerability context of livelihoods and responses in a changing climate condition: insights for sustainable livelihood in different agro-ecologies of Gurage Zone Zelalem Dendir Nigani A Dissertation Submitted to Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies Presented in the Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies (Environment and Development Studies) Supervisor Belay Simane (Professor) Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa, Ethiopia May 2020 2 Declaration I, the undersigned, declare that this is my original work, has never been presented in this or any other University, and that all the resources and materials used for the dissertation, have been fully acknowledged. Name: Zelalem Dendir Nigani Signature: ___________ Date: July 30/2020 Place: Addis Ababa Date of submission: July 30/2020 This dissertation has been submitted for examination with my approval as a University supervisor. Supervisor name: Belay Simane (Professor) Signature: _____________ Date: ________________ 3 DISSERTATION APPROVAL ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES This is to certify that the thesis prepared by Zelalem Dendir Nigani entitled: “Evaluating the vulnerability context of livelihoods and responses in a changing climate condition: insights for sustainable livelihood in different agro-ecologies of Gurage Zone” and submitted in fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environment and Development) complies with the regulations of the University and meets the accepted standards concerning originality and quality. Signed by the Examining Committee: ------------------------------------------ ------------------ -------------------- Chairman, Examining Committee Signature Date ------------------------------------------- ---------------- --------------------- External Examiner Signature Date ------------------------------------------- ---------------- -------------------- Internal Examiner Signature Date ------------------------------------------- ---------------- --------------------- Advisor Signature Date -------------------------------------------------------------------- Chair of Department or Graduate Program Coordinator 4 Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to extend my unshared thanks and give praise to the Almighty God and his mother St. Marry for providing me the opportunity and smoothening of all aspects regarding my Ph.D. work. My sincere appreciation goes to my supervisor Professor Belay Simane for his encouragement, guidance, and support throughout my Ph.D. period to make my Ph.D. experience productive. I have been extremely lucky to have had the opportunity to work with such an amazing and friendly person. The enthusiasm he has for research was motivational for me. I would like to thank all who have contributed immensely to my Ph.D. work. Particularly, I am grateful to Gebrekidan Worku, Dr. Kumela Gudeta, Dr. Mussi Yebab, and Gemechis Mersha for their fruitful discussions and contribution. I also thank my fellow Ph.D. candidates for being a source of continuous motivation as well as collaboration. I also would like to thank my colleagues, Alemayehu Wudneh, Bereket Zeleke, Dr. Hadis Tadele, Kassahun Abie, and Belihu Zeberga and many other friends for their support and friendship during my Ph.D. journey. I am also thankful to the academic and administrative staff of the College of Development Studies of Addis Ababa University for providing a great environment to undertake my study. I would like to thank individuals and organizations who helped me during my fieldwork in Gurage Zone, especially the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development of Sodo, Ezha and Cheha districts, the enumerators, supervisors, the sampled respondents and the participants in the focus group discussions. I am very indebted to their dedicated work, time, and hospitality. Most importantly, I am very thankful to my father Dendir Nigani, my mother Tenaye Gizaw, my brothers Biniyam, Sisay, and Yosef who always pray for my success and remain in contact throughout my Ph.D. duration. I am so grateful to my beloved wife Eyerus Gossaye and my daughter Elana Zelalem for their unconditional love and support. I gratefully acknowledge both Mada Walabu University and Addis Ababa University for sponsoring my Ph.D. study. I am also thankful to The Energy and Resource Institute, New Delhi, India for providing me training on an Integrated approach towards Sustainable Development, which helps me a lot in my Ph.D. work. 5 Dedication ለእቴቴ ና ጋሼ 6 General Abstract Climate variability and change profoundly affect rural livelihood systems in Ethiopia, particularly those built around climate-sensitive sectors. Generally, the objective of this study was to evaluate the vulnerability context of livelihoods in a changing climate condition and to examine farmers' responses for sustainable livelihood to support effective ex-ante decision-making in different agro- ecologies of Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The dissertation used a mixed research design to address the objectives. Representative 357 farm households were selected using a multistage sampling technique and data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. Complementarily, 2 focus group discussions and 12 key informant interviews for each agro- ecologies were carried-out. Agro-ecological variation of climate indices for extreme precipitation and temperature was analyzed for the time 1986–2016. The study used different data analysis methods, including the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI–IPCC) to analyze livelihood vulnerability; the trend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature extreme were examined by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively; adaptation difference between agro-ecologies was measured by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and descriptive statistics; the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) used to analyze determinants of the choice of adaptation strategies among farm households. The results indicate that there had been consistent warming trends in the study agro-ecologies. While inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes with insignificance trends were observed. The duration of extreme precipitation trends showed inconsistency among the studied agro-ecologies. The livelihood vulnerability analysis revealed that the lowland agro-ecological zone was more vulnerable to a changing climate condition, although there was a difference in components relative value in the three agro-ecological settings. Increasing temperature and declining precipitation are perceived by the majority of the respondents. Similarly, sampled farmers reported that the frequency of extreme events like drought, flood, frost, and storm had increased. In response to the adverse effects of climate variability and change, farmers employed adaptation strategies. But, a significant agro-ecological variation in farm management practices was found. The result from the multinomial logit model showed that different factors determine the adoption of adaptation measures. The result revealed that the adoption of crop management related strategy to a changing climate is significantly and positively affected by education level, farming experience, and extension advice. A positive and significant influence of sex, household size, credit service, access to market, and lowland agro- ecology was observed on the adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Context-specific interventions in response to a changing climate condition are recommended. Due to the availability of relatively large farm-land and less labor out-migration, crop management measures like drought-resistant and improved varies and adoption of soil and water conservation measures are recommended in lowland agro-ecological zone to increase the productivity of agricultural activities and thereby to sustain the livelihood of farmers. While, diversification of livelihood and plantation of Enset is recommended in both midland and highland agro-ecological zones since there is a land shortage, migration of youths, and population density. Similarly, the results acknowledge the role of institutional support in terms of education, climate information, credit, extension services, and market access to increase farmers’ readiness to implement adaptation strategies in response to the impacts of climate-related disasters, to improve livelihood, and support disaster risk reduction efforts. Keywords: climate extremes; trend; livelihood vulnerability; determinant; agroecology; Gurage 7 List of original papers 1. Dendir, Z., & Simane, B. (2020). Analysis of observed changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Springer (Submitted to Journal) 2. Dendir, Z., & Simane, B. (2019). Livelihood vulnerability to climate variability
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