Default Probability and Loss Given Default for Home Equity Loans Michael LaCour-Little Yanan Zhang Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Economics Working Paper 2014-1 June 2014 Keywords: mortgage default, loss given default, home equity loans, securitization. JEL classifications: G21, G28. Michael LaCour-Little is a professor of finance at California State University at Fullerton (e-mail
[email protected]). Yanan Zhang is a financial economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (e-mail
[email protected]), 400 7th St. SW, Washington, DC 20219, telephone (202) 649-5465; fax (571) 465-3935. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency or the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The authors would like to thank Michele Tezduyar for editorial assistance. The authors take responsibility for any errors. Default Probability and Loss Given Default for Home Equity Loans Michael LaCour-Little Yanan Zhang June 2014 Abstract: Securitization has been widely assigned blame for contributing to the recent mortgage market meltdown and ensuing financial crisis. In this paper, we sample from the OCC Mortgage Metrics database to develop estimates of default probabilities and loss given default for home equity loans originated during 2004-2008 and tracked from 2008-2012. We are particularly interested in the relationship between loan outcomes and the lender’s decision to securitize the asset. Among other innovations, we are able to measure the change in the borrower’s credit score over time and the level of documentation used during loan underwriting.