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Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Wright County, Iowa

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Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Wright County, Iowa Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Wright County, Iowa Prepared for: Wright County Economic Development Clarion, Iowa October 2014 1221 Nicollet Mall Suite 218 Minneapolis, MN 55403 612.338.0012 October 3, 2014 Mr. Brad Hicks Director Wright County Economic Development 115 N. Main/Box 214 Clarion, Iowa 50525 Dear Mr. Hicks: Attached is the Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Wright County, Iowa conducted by Maxfield Research Inc. The study projects housing demand from 2014 through 2025, and gives recommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in Wright County to satisfy demand from current and future residents over the next decade. The study identifies a potential demand for about 904 new housing units through 2025. De‐ mand was divided between general‐occupancy housing (39%) and age‐restricted senior housing (61%). Our inventory of general‐occupancy rental housing found no vacancies among the inventoried rental housing stock. The low vacancy rate indicates pent‐up demand for additional rental units in Wright County. Although new residential lots will be needed over the next ten years, the current lot supply in most Wright County communities is sufficient to meet demand in the short‐term. Detailed information regarding recommended housing concepts can be found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section at the end of the report. We have enjoyed performing this study for you and are available should you have any ques‐ tions or need additional information. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Matt Mullins David Sajevic Vice President Analyst Attachment TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5 Wright County Submarket Definitions .............................................................................. 5 Population and Household Growth from 1990 to 2010 ................................................... 7 Population and Household Estimates and Projections ..................................................... 9 Household Size .................................................................................................................. 14 Age Distribution Trends .................................................................................................... 15 Race of Population ............................................................................................................ 19 Household Income by Age of Householder ...................................................................... 21 Tenure by Age of Householder ......................................................................................... 28 Household Type ................................................................................................................ 30 Net Worth ......................................................................................................................... 33 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................................. 35 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 35 Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present ............................................................ 35 American Community Survey ............................................................................................ 38 Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure .................................................................. 38 Age of Housing Stock......................................................................................................... 41 Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type) ......... 43 Owner Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status ....................................................... 45 Owner‐Occupied Housing Units by Value ......................................................................... 47 Renter‐Occupied Units by Contract Rent .......................................................................... 49 Tenure by Household Income ........................................................................................... 50 Mobility in the Past Year ................................................................................................... 52 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ......................................................................................................... 54 Employment Trends .......................................................................................................... 54 Resident Labor Force ........................................................................................................ 54 Covered Employment by Industry .................................................................................... 56 Existing Business Mix by NAICS ......................................................................................... 59 Commuting Patterns ......................................................................................................... 63 In Flow/Out Flow ............................................................................................................... 65 Worker Profile ................................................................................................................... 67 Major Employers ............................................................................................................... 69 Employer Survey ............................................................................................................... 70 RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 71 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 71 Overview of Rental Market Conditions ............................................................................. 71 General Occupancy Rental Projects .................................................................................. 74 SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 82 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 82 Senior Housing Defined ..................................................................................................... 82 Older Adult Population and Household Trends ................................................................ 84 Supply of Senior Housing in Wright County ....................................................................... 85 FOR‐SALE HOUSING ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 92 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 92 Home Resales in Wright County ....................................................................................... 92 Current Supply of Homes on the Market .......................................................................... 96 Owner Occupied Turnover ................................................................................................ 101 Actively Marketing Subdivisions ....................................................................................... 102 Agricultural Land Values ................................................................................................... 105 Realtor/Builder Interviews ................................................................................................ 107 Planned and Pending Housing Projects ............................................................................ 111 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY..................................................................................................... 112 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 112 Housing Cost Burden .......................................................................................................... 116 Housing Vouchers .............................................................................................................. 119 Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income ......................................................... 121 HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 124 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 124 Demographic Profile and Housing Demand ...................................................................... 124 Housing Demand Overview ............................................................................................... 125 For‐Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis ....................................................................... 129 Rental Housing Demand Analysis ...................................................................................... 133 Senior Housing Demand Analysis .....................................................................................
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