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A CASE STUDY of SAMARA OBLAST in the RUSSIAN GRAIN BELT: AGRICULTURAL CHANGE Department Ofgeography Andenvironmental Department Sustainability, the University Of

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A CASE STUDY of SAMARA OBLAST in the RUSSIAN GRAIN BELT: AGRICULTURAL CHANGE Department Ofgeography Andenvironmental Department Sustainability, the University Of Kirsten de Beurs1, Grigory Ioffe2, Tatyana G. Nefedova3* 1 Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA; e-mail: [email protected] 2 Radford University, Radford, VA, USA; e-mail: [email protected] 3 Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; * Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] AGRICULTURAL CHANGE IN THE RUSSIAN GRAIN BELT: SUSTAINABILITY A CASE STUDY OF SAMARA OBLAST 95 ABSTRACT. Change in agricultural land use (as characterized by the variability of in Samara Oblast is analyzed on the basis temperature and moisture regimes) and of agricultural statistics, field observations, the accessibility of major urban centers and satellite imagery. Besides the general [Nefedova 2003]. decline in animal husbandry, three drivers of spatial change are uncovered – accessibility Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are often to the major urban areas, natural setting, mentioned as the countries with the and ethnic mix. Land surface phenology world’s greatest unrealized food production metrics are in line with these drivers. In potential [Fay and Patel 2008]. There is a particular, satellite imagery confirms the significant gap between potential (i.e., based large amount of fallowed land in Samara. on natural soil fertility) and actual yields in Overall, land abandonment reached its peak these countries. This gap is likely to offset in the late 1990s, and was subsequently the potential yield increase due to climate reversed but the amount of land used in change [Olesen and Bindi 2002]. Current crop farming has not reached the 1990 level. inefficiencies will need to be addressed Spatial differentiation is also analyzed across to realize the actual yield increase. Some three types of farms – former collective and argue that agricultural land transition is state farms, household farms, and registered one process that needs to occur to improve family businesses. productivity and efficiency [Lerman and Shagaida 2007]. Potential gains due to KEY WORDS: agriculture, land use, spatial projected climate change could be offset change, land abandonment, field by increases in the frequency or shifts in observations, satellite imagery the seasonality of extreme weather (e.g., droughts, [Dronin and Kirilenko 2011]). INTRODUCTION In this paper, we will highlight agricultural Agricultural land use in Russia is undergoing land use change in Samara Oblast, a profound changes. These changes arise region situated within Russia’s black- from the combined effects of introducing soil (Chernozem) grain belt. We visited capitalism and ongoing rural depopulation. this region in the summer of 2010 and As previous work has shown, in European performed extensive interviews with district Russia rural population density is an effective administrators, farm managers and other predictor of agricultural productivity [Ioffe members of the population. Remote sensing et al. 2004, Ioffe 2005]. However, population was used to advance our understanding of density itself is under the influence of such ongoing agricultural changes in the region factors as the harshness of rural environment over the past ten years. gi212.indd 95 15.06.2012 12:48:23 In what follows, we will focus on the In 2010, Samara oblast’s population density peculiarities of the case study region, was 59.2 people/km2. The rural population methods used to evaluate land use change, density was 11.5 people/km2. Ethnic Russians and on principal results emphasizing the dominate Samara’s population (83.6%); drivers of spatial differentiation of agricultural Chuvash (6%) and Tatars (4.3%) are the largest land use. minorities. Non-Russians predominantly live in the northern areas of Samara oblast. The THE CASE STUDY REGION oblast consists of 27 lower level administrative units (rayons) comparable to counties in the SUSTAINABILITY Samara oblast (53,600 km2) is located in United States. the middle of the Russian grain belt, in 96 the central Volga River basin in southern The oblast is located across the ecotone Russia bordering northern Kazakhstan (Fig. 1). of forest steppe, with patches of broadleaf We chose Samara because the oblast is forests interspersed with steppe in the north; representative of a) European Russia’s south, regular steppe in the middle; and dry steppe a macro-region with high natural soil fertility in the south. There are about three million and with only moderate (not drastic) rural hectares of arable land in the region; the depopulation, and b) quite a few Russian main crops are grain, sunflower, sugar beets, regions (north and south) whose regional and potatoes. According to official statistics, capitals are very large (close to or over one agricultural land in Samara occupies 76% million people). This second characteristic of the territory, with 58% of the territory generates a suburb-periphery land use classified as arable land [Agriculture Samara intensity and productivity gradient within 2008]. In general, the natural conditions the oblast. are favorable for agriculture, but despite the frequent droughts that affect the The cities of Samara and Togliatti are the southern part of the oblast, there is limited oblast’s largest cities with 1.1 million and irrigation. Land abandonment in this area 720 thousand residents, respectively. was moderate compared to other oblasts Fig. 1. Overview of estimated croplands in the region in the year 2000. Samara oblast is located in the middle of the Russian grain belt. The cropland dataset is from Ramankutty et al. [2008] and has a spatial resolution of 0.05° lat/lon ggi212.inddi212.indd 9966 115.06.20125.06.2012 112:48:232:48:23 in Russia; about 69% of the area cultivated DATA AND METHODS in 1990 was still cultivated in 2006. Other regions, such as Kostroma oblast, situated 1. Field data collection farther upstream (along the Volga River), During a field trip in May 2010 we collected experienced widespread land abandonment; official statistical yearbook data and updated only 55% of the 1990 cultivated area was still lower level rayon data collected previously cultivated in 2006. [Nefedova 2005, Samara oblast’ 2006, Ioffe et al. 2006, Pallot and Nefedova 2007]. We Grain production reveals strong inter- visited typical settlements and enterprises annual variability. In 2009, a third of the in four selected rayons (Kinel-Cherkassky, SUSTAINABILITY crop production was lost in Samara; in Pokhvistnevsky, Bolshechernigovsky and the widespread and extreme drought of Pestravsky) within the study region and 97 2010, this area lost about 40%. While the interviewed rural administration heads, farm agricultural potential for the southern managers, and the local population. The four rayons is lowest as a result of frequent selected rayons are located in east central droughts, nearly 75% of the land area and far southern Samara. We conducted is plowed. Grain yields in these rayons twenty five loosely structured interviews are low and unstable; agriculture is risky, in four different rayons. Each interview especially now that the number of cattle lasted between 30 to 90 minutes. The on large farms drastically declined from interviews were typically attended by 1012 thousand in 1990 to 212 thousand one to five respondents. We aimed at in 2009 [Agriculture Samara, 2004, s.224, interviewing a large cross section of people 2009 s.100–101]. with agricultural interest within Samara. Among the experts we interviewed were Russian farmers employ a variety of crop- Samara’s Ministers of Economics and of rotation schemes. In this area, the farmers Agriculture and the head of Samara’s Land previously used a seven-year rotation which Use Committee. In addition, we spoke typically included only one year of fallow with one local agronomist and heads of and a variety of grain crops in the remaining one agricultural company (Simko) and four six years. The fallow year is used to increase agricultural cooperatives. We spoke with subsurface moisture in periods when there nine different rayon and city administrators, is no drought. Farm managers in Samara several registered independent farmers indicated that the crop rotation schedules as well as household farmers and one are changing from a seven-year crop cycle owner of a private greenhouse with 4000 focused on grain production to a three- tomato plants. We also spoke with the year crop cycle focused on the production owners of a sausage factory with sixty of sunflower. The new rotation schedule employees located in a rural Tatar village. is fallow-grain-sunflower, which ensures a Among the farmers and administrators higher profit margin compared with grain interviewed, there were people from alone. The number of cropped years gives Baskhir, Tatar, and Chuvash ethnicities. The an indication of the type of crop cycle that is information collected during this fieldwork applied. Crop cycles that include sunflower period provides a largely improved see increased numbers of fallow years understanding of the economic and rural compared to grain based crop cycles. In social situation [Ioffe et al. 2011]. We asked addition, drier areas are predicted to reveal every participant questions with respect more fallow years either due to decisions to population dynamics, unemployment, by farm managers or as a result of ongoing subsidies and taxes, and their perceptions droughts. According to farm managers of drought and climate change. When interviewed, far southern Samara tends to appropriate, we also asked to see farms experience agricultural drought about half and crops and asked about crop varieties the time. and rotation schemes. ggi212.inddi212.indd 9977 115.06.20125.06.2012 112:48:252:48:25 2. Landsat Data 3. MODIS Data The series of Landsat satellites has measured The Moderate Resolution Imaging the Earth’s changing land surface since the Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides near- launch of Landsat 1 in 1972. During the daily repeat coverage of the earth’s surface study period the United States Geological since 2000 with 36 spectral bands and a Survey (USGS) operated Landsat 5 equipped swath width of approximately 2330 km.
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