A Puzzle in the Hindu Population Growth in Bangladesh

A puzzle in the Hindu population growth in Bangladesh

Background: Bangladesh is a plural society with Muslims, Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, and tribal faiths [1]. In 2011, Muslims constituted 90.4%, Hindus 8.5%, Christians 0.3%, and Buddhists 0.6% (Table 1). Only 0.1% people are affiliated with other faiths most of which are probably from the tribal populations. There has not been much change in the proportion of Christian, Buddhist, and other religious group over the 60 year period 1951-2011, but the proportion of Hindu population declined dramatically from 22.0% in 1951 to 8.5% in 2011. The pace of decline seems to be higher in the period between 1951 and 1981 than between 1981 and 2011. The shrinking of the relative share of Non-Muslim population is striking. As expected, the absolute size of all the religious groups has increased. However, population growth rates were different for different religious groups, highest for the Muslims, followed by Christians, Buddhists, and Hindus. Markedly very low rate of growth is observed for the Hindus. Because of substantially higher growth rate of Muslims than Hindus, the relative proportion of Hindu population has declined. Migration was a key element of population change in the early days of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Approximately 4.7 million Hindus sought refuge in India from the then East Pakistan between 1947 and 1971 [2], and also lots of Muslims migrated to East Pakistan from India but that number was thought to be much lower than the Hindu migration. Table 1 Population distribution by religion, Bangladesh (a) Percent of religious groups Non-Muslim Number Census year Muslim Hindu Christian Buddhist Others Total (millions) 1951* 76.9 22.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 100.0 44.2 1981 86.5 12.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 100.0 90.0 2011 90.4 8.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 100.0 149.8 (b) Number (in millions) 1951* 33.99 9.72 0.13 0.35 0.04 44.24 - 1981 77.85 11.07 0.27 0.54 0.27 90.00 - 2011 135.4 12.73 0.45 0.90 0.15 149.8 - (c) Annual growth rate (%) 1951 1981 2.8 0.4 2.4 1.4 6.4 2.4 - 1981 2011 1.8 0.5 1.7 1.7 -2.0 1.7 - 1951 2011 2.3 0.4 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.0 - Source: Bangladesh Population Census 2001[3] and Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 2011 [4] * In 1951 Bangladesh was a part of Pakistan called East Pakistan and became independent in 1971. Fertility, the most important element associated with population growth, is significantly influenced by couples’ reproductive behaviours like breastfeeding, infant and child feeding practices, postpartum abstinence, coital taboos, practice of abortion, and contraceptive use [5]. These behaviours are likely to be associated with religious faith. Hindus have consistently shown lower fertility than the Muslims [6, 7]. Mortality differential may exist between Muslims and Hindus to differentially affect their population growth. A recent study shows higher adult mortality among Non-Muslim in rural Bangladesh [8]. Alam and Khuda (2011) also show higher mortality of Hindus than Muslims. Objective: Above review indicates that the markedly lower growth of Hindu population may be associated with their higher or lower rates of migration, fertility, and mortality. We attempt to dissect the contribution of these components and quantify the individual effects of components

1 on Hindu-Muslim population change over the period 1992 to 2012 in Matlab sub-district. We estimate the percent distribution of the relative decline of Hindu population contributing to their higher migration, lower fertility, and higher mortality relative to Muslims. Data and Methods: The data used in this study come from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Matlab sub-district, located about 55 km southeast of the capital city of Bangladesh, established by International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh in 1966 [9]. The HDSS records births, deaths, migrations, other important demographic events since the early years of its establishment. Each individual under HDSS has a unique identification number depending on the household they belong to. A birth or in- migration is added on the household register as these events occur and similarly a death or out- migration is excluded from the household to determine population change. Registration of migration destination and place of origin was started in 1989. The HDSS records three kinds of migration. First, movement of a person from one household to another household within the HDSS area – it does not affect population change of the HDSS area. This analysis excludes such internal movement. Second, out- and in-migration of a person from and in the HDSS area but within Bangladesh – this migration affects population change of the HDSS area. Third, out- and in-migration of a person from and in the HDSS area but out-side Bangladesh – this migration also affects population change. Our interest is in the third category of migration. The second category of migration is considered for necessary adjustment of the growth rate. We examine the annual rate of population change in the Matlab HDSS area during 1992-2012 using the demographic balancing equation [10]: (Pt )r = (Pt-1)r + (Bt)r – (Dt)r + (MIt)r – (MOt)r, where, (Pt )r= Population at year t for religion r, Pt-1 =Population at year t-1, Bt = Birth at year t,

Dt = Death at year t, MIIt = In-migration at year t, MOIt = Out-migration at year t; And, t varies from 1992 to 2012. We calculate birth rate, death rate, and international in- and out-migration rates separately for Hindus and Muslims for each year between 1992 and 2012. We calculate age-specific death rates of Hindus and Muslims aged 55 and over. We also calculate in- and out- migration rates with countries of origin and destination of migration. The countries are categorized as (a) India and (b) other countries.

We use the above rates to estimate the relative contribution of fertility, mortality, and migration to the differential growth of Hindus and Muslims in Matlab during 1992-2012. We do this in two steps. First, we calculate the absolute difference of each of birth, death, and migration rates between Hindus and Muslims; add these three values and calculate the percentages of these components. These percentages are the contributions of differences in birth, death, and migration between Hindus and Muslims. Second, estimate the population size of Hindus in 2012 in Matlab applying the birth, death, and migration rates of Muslims during 1992-2012. Then, calculate the differences between observed and estimated Hindu population due to differences in birth, death, and migration rates. With this data we estimate the relative distribution of difference due to differential birth, death, and net migration rates between Hindus and Muslims. We analyze some selected determinants of fertility by religion using data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHS) conducted in 1993-1994 and 2011 – two nationally representative surveys that collected selected socio-demographic and health related information from 9,174, and 17,141 households, respectively.

RESULTS: Hindu-Muslim differences in socioeconomic indicators, Matlab, 1996-2014: Hindus and Muslims had similar level of education but economically the former were worse. In 2014, possession of land was low among Hindus than Muslims. In terms of wealth quintile, Hindus are

2 markedly worse-off than Muslims – only 29% of Hindu households were in the top two quintiles compared with 46% of Muslims. Similar Hindu-Muslim quintile differentials existed in 1996.

Population change in Matlab, 1992-2012: The size of the Matlab HDSS population by religion at two points in time. In 1992, of the total population of 205.4 thousand, 26.0 thousand (12.7%) were Hindus and 179.4 thousand (87.3%) were Muslims. In 2012, the size of Hindu population increased to 26.8 thousand but their share reduced slightly to 11.9%. During 1992-2012, the annual growth rate of Hindus was 0.14% compared with 0.50% for Muslims, meaning that Hindu population growth rate was just one-quarter of that of the Muslim rate.

Hindu-Muslim difference in fertility, Matlab, 1992-2012: Annual birth rate of Hindus was lower than Muslims in all calendar years considered; the rate for the former was lower roughly by 2.0 points per 1,000 during 1992-2012. As expected, over the period of 21 years, birth rate declined among both religious groups, by 10 points per 1,000 (from 28.2 to 18.5 for Muslims and from 26.7 to 16.2 for Hindus).

We compare some indicators of proximate determinants of fertility between Hindu and Muslim populations to explore probable reasons behind Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials (Bongaarts, 1978; Bongaarts, 1982; and Davis and Blake, 1956). All the indicators indicate that the former group is likely to have lower fertility than the latter.

Hindu-Muslim difference of mortality, Matlab, 1992-2012: The rates declined for both groups but there seems to be a pattern in their time trends. The death rates were either similar or the Hindu-Muslim differences fluctuated year to year during 1992-2003. Since then, rates for Hindus remained consistently higher than for Muslims. Overall death rate was higher among Hindus than Muslims (Hindu: 7.4 and Muslim: 7.1 per 1,000). A distinct age pattern of Hindu- Muslim mortality is found. Hindus are disadvantageous at ages 55 and over, and have advantageous mortality during ages 1-14 years while there is no difference by religion for mortality between ages 15-44 and in infancy.

Hindu-Muslim differential in migration, Matlab, 1992-2012: Among both Muslims and Hindus, international out-migration was always higher than international in-migration in the study period, meaning that Matlab is losing people of both religious groups through international migration. This loss is greater for Hindus than Muslims. Of the 21 years considered in this analysis, Hindus had higher out-migration than Muslims in 18 years. Destination of migration of Hindu people changed over time – their net out-migration to India declined from 86 percent in 1992-2004 to 36 percent in 2005-2012.

Relative contribution of fertility, mortality and migration in the lower growth of Hindus than Muslims, Matlab, 1992-2012: The results above establish that Hindus had lower fertility, higher mortality and higher net migration compared to Muslims during 1992-2012. All the components of population growth together contributed to the relatively lower growth of Hindus than Muslims. We adopted two approaches to estimate the relative contribution of each of these three components to the lower growth of Hindus than Muslims. Approach 1 shows over 71% of the lower growth rate of Hindus was associated with their lower fertility, 6% associated with higher mortality, and 23% associated with higher migration (Table 2).

The results obtained in the second approach are shown in Table 3. Column 2 shows (a) the observed population sizes in 1992 and 2012 and (b) the number of births, deaths, and net-

3 migrations that occurred during 1992-2012. Column 3 shows the additional number of births, deaths, and net migrations the Hindus could have during 1992-2012 if they had the rates birth, death, and net-migration similar to those of Muslims. Hindus increased from 31,504 in 1992 to 32,107 in 2012 (Col. 2) but potentially there could be as many as 34,735 (32,107+2,628) in 2012 if they had experienced the rates of Muslims. Hindus therefore had 2,628 (col. 3, last row) fewer persons added to their communities, meaning their growth was lower than for Muslims. When we compartmentalize the effect of each of the three components, we find that Hindus’ lower birth rate accounted for 71% of their lower growth. Similarly, higher death and net out- migration rates accounted for 6% and 23%, respectively, of the lower growth.

Table 2 Approach 1- Birth, death and net international migration rate by religion, 1992-2012, Matlab Rate per 1,000 person-years Muslim Hindu |(2)-(3)| % distribution of (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Birth 25.0 21.6 3.4 70.8 Death 7.2 7.5 0.3 6.3 Net international migration -3.1 -4.2 1.1 22.9 Growth 14.8 9.9 4.8 100.0 Table 3 Approach 2 - Compartmentalization of the effects of fertility, mortality, and migration on Hindu population growth during 1992-2012, Matlab Observed/estimated Difference = population size in 2012 (Estimated – Observed) Percent (1) (2) (3) (4) Observed (considering only international 31,504 migration occurred) Estimation with Muslim birth rate a 33,367 1,862 70.8% Estimation with Muslim death rate b 31,669 164 6.3% Estimation with Muslim net international 32,107 602 22.9% migration rate c All -- 2,628 100% Note: Considering that no in-country migration happened. a Death and migration rates of Hindu; b Birth and migration rates of Hindu; c Birth and death rates of Hindu Reference 1. Nicholas, R.W., Fruits of worship: practical religion in Bengal. 2003: Orient Blackswan. 2. Kumar, C., Migration and Refugee Issue between India and Bangladesh. Scholar's Voice: A New Thinking, 2009. 1(1): p. 64-82. 3. BBS, Bangladesh Population Census 2001. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2003. 4. BBS, Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 2011. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2014. 5. Bongaarts, J., A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 1978: p. 105-132. 6. Stoeckel, J. and M.A. Choudhury, Differential fertility in a rural area of East Pakistan. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 1969: p. 189-198. 7. Alam, N. and B.-e. Khuda, Demography of Muslims and Non-Muslims in Bangladesh. Vol. 40. 2011: Demography India. 8. Razzaque, A., G. A. Carmichael, and P.K. Streatfield, Adult Mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh. Vol. 5. 2009: Asian Population Studies. 9. Mosley, W.H., et al., Preliminary Analysis of the Results of Daily Registration of Births, Deaths and Migration in 132 Villages in the Cholera Vaccine Field Trial Area in Comilla District, East Pakistan, May 1966-April 1967. Pakistan-SEATO Cholera Research Laboratory, June 1968. 10. Shryock, H.S., J.S. Siegel, and E.A. Larmon, The methods and materials of demography. Vol. 2. 1980: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.