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America's Energy Future

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America's Energy Future America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation This report from the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering assesses the potential over the next two to three decades of a range of technologies to increase sustainability, support long-term economic prosperity, promote energy security, and reduce adverse environmental impacts. The report finds that, with a sustained national commitment, the United States could achieve considerable energy-efficiency improvements, acquire new sources of energy supply, and effect substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated development and deployment of a portfolio of existing and emerging energy-supply and end-use technologies. Actions taken between now and 2020 to develop and demonstrate the viability of several key technologies will, to a large extent, determine the nation’s energy options for many decades to come. nergy has always played a critical role States must consider how to provide in our country’s national security, sufficient, affordable, and sustainable Eeconomic prosperity, and environ- supplies of energy. mental quality. Growing concern about Fossil fuels currently dominate the United America’s dependence on vulnerable sources States’ energy landscape, providing more than of imported oil and in the future, natural gas, 85 percent of the United States’ energy supply the volatility of energy markets, increasing (see Figure 1) and 21 percent of world energy worldwide demand for energy, and concerns and consumption. For transportation, the about climate change have sparked a national United States is almost completely dependent and political interest in the country’s energy upon petroleum, of which 56 percent is future. In the face of these issues, the United imported. United States fossil energy 50 ) 40 Total U.S. Consumption = 101.6 Quads 30 20 Quadrillion Btu (Quads 10 0 Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydropower Biomass Other Power Renewables Energy Source Figure 1: America’s energy use in 2008. Source: Energy Information Administration, 2008 consumption generates about 6 billion tons of carbon Energy Efficiency dioxide (CO2)—a major greenhouse gas—emissions, Increased adoption of energy-efficiency tech- accounting for about a quarter of the world’s total nologies is the nearest-term and lowest-cost option CO emissions annually. 2 for moderating our nation’s demand for energy, Market forces have, for the most part, guided especially over the next decade. The potential the development of the current United States energy energy savings available from the accelerated system. But to date, they have undervalued the deployment of existing energy efficiency technolo- changes necessary for movement toward gies in buildings, industry, and transportation sustainable energy supply and use, such as the sectors could more than offset projected increases environmental costs of burning fossil fuels and in United States energy consumption through 2030. dependence on imported fuels. Decisions about Buildings, which use 73 percent of electricity future energy options require technology choices and 40 percent of all U.S energy consumed, have that involve a complex mix of scientific, technical, the greatest potential for increases in efficiency (see economic, social, and political considerations. A key message from America’s Energy Future is that Figure 2). By 2030, using currently available or a suite of current and emerging technologies have emerging efficiency technologies in buildings could the potential to move the nation towards a more lower energy use by 25 to 30 percent compared to secure and sustainable energy system. predictions reflected in the EIA reference case, America’s Energy Future addresses the relative even with expected growth in consumer demand. costs, environmental impacts, and barriers to This reduction would eliminate the need to build widespread deployment of existing and emerging any new electric power generating plants before energy-supply and end-use technologies. An 2030 except to address regional supply imbalances, accelerated deployment effort from now until replace obsolete generating assets, or substitute 2035 is compared against the Energy Information more environmentally benign electricity sources. Administration’s (EIA’s) “business-as-usual” Replacing incandescent lamps with compact reference case. fluorescent and new solid state (light emitting 6000 5000 Commercial Sector 4000 3700 Residential Sector 3200 Commercial Buildings 3000 2700 Residential Buildings 2000 1000 rawatt-hours (TWh) Te –840 –1300 0 –1000 –2000 2007 2020 2030 2020 2030 Delivered DOE/EIA Projection of Delivered Potential Electricity Savings: Electricity Electricity (Reference Case) Buildings Figure 2: The 2007 U.S. delivered energy, used mainly in buildings, is on the left. The building sector’s projected electricity consumption in 2020 and 2030 is in the middle. The sector’s potential savings with an accelerated deployment of efficiency technologies is on the right. R01203 Main Report 2-1 2 diode) lamps alone could reduce buildings’ electric- fuel economy rather than vehicle size or power. ity use by 12 percent. Increased use of plug-in electric hybrid vehicles, Many building efficiency technologies repre- which rely partly on electricity for fuel, and battery sent attractive investment opportunities with a electric vehicles could also appreciably reduce payback period of two to three years. While lack of gasoline use. These vehicles could begin to make a information and capital discourages consumers and large impact beyond 2020 but their market success businesses from using these technologies, setting critically depends on development of batteries with efficiency standards, incorporating efficiency into much higher performance and lower costs than are building codes, labeling product efficiency, and currently available. In addition, fuel cell vehicle promoting consumer awareness could dramatically technology improvements could pave the way for increase adoption of these measures. large-scale deployment in the period 2035-2050. The industrial and transportation sectors could Medium and heavy duty vehicles, such as tractor also significantly increase their energy efficiency. The industrial sector could reduce its energy use by trailers, could also experience a 10 to 20 percent 14 to 22 percent by 2020, compared to the expected reduction in fuel use by 2020 compared to projec- trend reflected in the EIA reference case. It could tions. Using rail for freight shipping could also expand the use of available systems that both reduce that sector’s fuel use, because it is ten times produce electricity and recover waste heat, along more efficient in terms of energy use than trucking. with other specific process technologies. In trans- New Supplies of Electricity portation, technologies that increase the efficiency of light-duty vehicles (cars and sport utility vehicles Although most electricity is produced by [SUVs]) could allow the new vehicle fleet to exceed burning conventional fossil fuels (over 70 percent 35 miles per gallon average by 2020. This 40 in the United States), several non-traditional percent increase in fuel economy over today’s sources of electricity have the potential to signifi- average of 25 miles per gallon would offset the cantly change the supply mix during the next two to predicted increase in fuel demand absent such three decades. They can reduce greenhouse gas improvements. To achieve these savings, vehicle emissions substantially but will likely cost consum- manufacturers must use new technology to increase ers more than current sources (see Figure 3). 1000 800 600 400 200 Equivalent per Kilowatt-hour 2 0 Grams CO –200 l s P S S CS Coal Wind NGCC Nuclear Biomas Solar PVs Coal-CC Geotherma Hydropower NGCC-CC Electricity Generation Source Figure 3: The potential range of greenhouse gas emissions for new sources of electricity. NGCC is natural gas combined cycle technology, CCS is carbon capture and storage, CSP is concentrating solar power, and PV is photovoltaic. 3 Coal-fired power plants currently generate the demonstration to clarify future deployment about half of the electricity consumed in the United options cannot be overstated. States. Domestic coal reserves are sufficient for Nuclear power currently supplies about 19 continued use of coal in power generation for more percent of United States electricity production. It than a century, including accommodation of has substantial potential for continuing to contrib- substantial growth in electricity use. But these ute a significant fraction of United States electric plants produce a significant amount of CO2, and power generation, but realizing that potential future controls placed on greenhouse gas emissions requires upgrading existing plants to increase their may limit their use unless the CO2 is captured and generating capacity as well as constructing new stored. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technol- ones. Upgrading existing nuclear power plants ogy captures and injects CO2 into secure rock could supply almost as much additional electricity formations, such as oil and gas reserves, deep by 2020 as new plants at less than a third of the saline aquifers, and deep coal beds. This technol- cost. To prove nuclear power’s future commercial ogy has the potential to considerably reduce the viability in the United States, construction of about amount of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from five evolutionary nuclear plants in the United States coal-fired
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