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Disaster Risk Assessment Sustainable Rural Infrastructure and Watershed Management Sector Project (RRP LAO 50236) Disaster Risk Assessment Project Number: 50236-002 March 2019 Lao PDR: Sustainable Rural Infrastructure and Watershed Management Sector Project CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as at 6 February 2019) Currency Unit – Kip (KN) KN1.00 = $0.000115 $1.00 = KN6,660 GLOSSARY Catchment In its totality a catchment is equivalent to a watershed, however a watershed may comprise of micro-catchments and sub- catchments. In this document a catchment refers to a subset of the larger watershed. Watershed A topographically delineated area from which rainwater drains as surface run-off via a river or stream to a common outlet point (e.g. a large river, lake or the sea). Watershed management Securing watershed functions in a sustainable manner. Broadly these functions include: ➢ Ecological function: availability of sufficient good quality water over time, space; erosion control, soil fertility, biodiversity, clean air, carbon sequestration; ➢ Economic function: sufficient natural resource products like food, fuel wood, timber, water, fish, energy required for basic needs of the local population; income generating opportunities; ➢ Social function: maintenance of social structures; protection and development of knowledge and lifestyle arrangements; maintenance and revitalisation of cultural identity and values, recreational facilities. NOTE(S) (i) In this report, “$” refers to US dollars unless otherwise stated. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADB : Asian Development Bank ACIAR : Australian Center for International Agricultural Research AF : Additional Financing CCA : climate change adaptation CIFOR : Center for International Forestry Research CMIP5 : Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 COL : Concessional OCR lending DAFO : District Agriculture and Forestry Office DALAM : Department of Agricultural Land Management DDMCC : Department of Disaster Management and Climate Change DMF : Design and Monitoring Framework DOI : Department of Irrigation DRR : disaster risk reduction EIA : Environment Impact Assessment ERP : Emissions Reduction Program FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization (of the United Nations) GCF : Green Climate Fund GCM : Global Climate Model : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GIZ (German International Cooperation Agency) GMS : Greater Mekong Subregion HFA : Hyogo Framework for Action IEE : Initial Environment Examination IUCN : International Union for the Conservation of Nature IWMI : International Water Management Institute LDC : least developed country MAF : Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MAF : Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry NGO : Non-Governmental Organizations NRI : Northern Rural Infrastructure Development Project NSEDP : National Socio-Economic Development Plan NTFP : non timber forest product O&M : Operations & Maintenance OCR : Ordinary Capital Resources ODA : Overseas Development Assistance PAFO : Provincial Agriculture and Forestry Office PAM : Project Administration Manual PDR : People’s Democratic Republic (of Laos) PGT : Project Governance Team PLUP : Participatory land use planning PONRE : Provincial Office of Natural Resources and Environment PPIT : Provincial Project Implementation Team PRAP : Provincial REDD+ Action Plans PRC : People’s Republic of China PRI : productive rural infrastructure RRP : Report & Recommendations to the President RSP : representative subproject SME : Small and Medium Enterprises TRTA : Transaction Technical Assistance VDF : village development fund WUA : water users association WUG : water user group CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Purpose of the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 1 B. Sustainability of Irrigation Systems 1 C. Rationale for the Project 2 II. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT 4 A. Climate based Risks 4 B. Other Disaster Risks 30 III. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT 39 A. Disaster Preparedness and Response 41 B. Adaptation Options for SRIWSM Subprojects in a Changing Climate 42 C. Rationale for Adaptation 42 D. Recommendations: Engineering 43 E. Recommendations: Agricultural Systems 45 F. Recommended Actions for Climate Change Adaptation 47 IV. REPRESENTATIVE SUBPROJECT DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK RESPONSES 51 A. Nam Pua Subproject Houaphan 51 B. Nam Tong Xiangkhouang Province 51 C. Nam Seng Louangphabang Province 51 D. Phieng 1 and 2 Xaignabouli Province 52 List of Appendices References Appendix 1: Rainfall Data and Analysis for the Project Provinces Appendix 2: Initial Climate Risk Assessments by Province I. INTRODUCTION A. Purpose of the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 1. This Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is provided as part of the Sustainable Rural Infrastructure Sector Project (SRIWSM). It provides guidance for the design of subprojects during implementation, to ensure that they are developed in ways that mitigate the climate-related risks. All infrastructure is vulnerable to extremes under current climatic conditions, but there are increased risks that derive from projections of climate change. The resilience of project-supported infrastructure is dependent on an understanding of the possible extreme events that may occur, and the incorporation of suitable adaptation in their design and management. Since the project’s main infrastructure developments will involve irrigation systems – river water intakes, canals and distribution systems – the resilience of these structures is the main focus of the CRVA. However, it also applies to other infrastructure likely to be included in project investments, such as rural roads and bridges. 2. The assessment also covers other disasters that could potentially affect the project. In terms of likelihood and severity, climatic or climate-related disasters are significantly greater risks than other possible destructive events. Nevertheless, a section of the document assesses other risks, based on historical events and assessing possible future impacts in relation to the project. 3. ADB’s note on Climate Risk Management in ADB Projects (ADB, 2014) summarises the CRVA as follows. “A detailed climate risk and vulnerability assessment is carried out for projects classified as medium or high risk during project preparation. The assessment aims to quantify risks and identify adaptation options that can be integrated into the project design. The level of technical rigor of the assessment depends on the project complexity and availability of climate data and information for the project area. It can range from a simple desk analysis to a complex assessment based on custom climate projections to enable a more detailed assessment.” 4. The project provinces are identified as highly vulnerable to climate change1, and so the climate risk and vulnerability assessment has been made an integral part of the project preparation. Climate change is a complex and as yet not fully understood phenomenon, where predictions are based on mathematical models. Since the input variables for the models are essentially infinite and the interactions between them not completely defined, especially for areas with maritime influence (such as south-east Asia with the strong influence of the south-west monsoon from the Indian Ocean), no single model is yet considered sufficiently reliable to use as the basis for economic modelling. The standard practice is therefore to use a range of models to attempt to develop a “consensus” as to what future scenario is most likely. Laos is not a big contributor to the causes of climate change but may be disproportionately at risk from the resulting effects. This is largely because of the high dependence of the population on mainly subsistence agriculture and fisheries. The SRIWSM is in itself part of the solution, in that it will help to improve resilience in agriculture, yet its interventions must be sufficiently robust that they do not fail as a consequence of the very factors that they are intended to mitigate. B. Sustainability of Irrigation Systems 5. The ADB’s Irrigation Subsector Guidance Note (ADB, 2017) places resilience to climate change firmly within the sustainability of a project. It summarises the concept of sustainability as 1 ADB AWARE assessment 2 follows. “‘Sustain’ means that the irrigation system will continue to operate at its optimal performance. This includes managing the water resources to account for reallocations to other users, prevent adverse depletion, and enhance resilience to climate variability and the anticipated impact of climate change. It also means ensuring that all costs relating to the management, operation, maintenance, and asset depreciation of the system are affordable and are fully covered by government, user (farmer), or private sector financing.” Hence design and management systems that are capable of withstanding climate extremes are key to sustainability. 6. In practice, in the context of Lao PDR’s humid tropical climate, resilience for irrigation systems means accommodating the possible weather events that might occur in the lifetime of the infrastructure. This is based on historical experience, usually of between 10 and 30 years, which is a very short period in the overall timeframe of climatic fluctuations. Although factors such as increased temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, and changes in insolation may occur, they will affect the management of crops rather than the infrastructure itself. The overwhelming climate-related impacts affecting irrigation infrastructure will be those that lead to flood or drought. Resilience against extreme water flows in the rivers supplying
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