DOCSLIB.ORG

Gaining from Losses: Using Disaster Loss Data As a Tool for Appraising Natural Disaster Policy

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Gaining from Losses: Using Disaster Loss Data As a Tool for Appraising Natural Disaster Policy GAINING FROM LOSSES: USING DISASTER LOSS DATA AS A TOOL FOR APPRAISING NATURAL DISASTER POLICY by SHALINI MOHLEJI B.A., University of Virginia, 2000 M.S., Purdue University, 2002 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Environmental Studies Program 2011 This thesis entitled: Gaining from Losses: Using Disaster Loss Data as a Tool for Appraising Natural Disaster Policy written by Shalini Mohleji has been approved for the Environmental Studies Program Roger Pielke Jr. Sam Fitch Date 5/26/11 The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signatories, and we find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. IRB protocol #: 11-0029 iii Mohleji, Shalini (Ph.D., Environmental Studies) Gaining from Losses: Using Disaster Loss Data as a Tool for Appraising Natural Disaster Policy Thesis directed by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. ABSTRACT This dissertation capitalizes on an opportunity, untapped until now, to utilize data on disaster losses to appraise natural disaster policy. Through a set of three distinct studies, I use data on economic losses caused by natural disasters in order to analyze trends in disaster severity and answer important disaster policy questions. The first study reconciles the apparent disconnect between (a) claims that global disaster losses are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change and (b) studies that find regional losses are increasing due to socioeconomic factors. I assess climate change and global disaster severity through regional analyses derived by disaggregating global loss data into their regional components. Economic losses from North American, Asian, European, and Australian storms and floods contribute to 97% of the increase in global economic losses with each region‟s increasing losses attributed to socioeconomic factors. The second study evaluates the National Flood Insurance Program and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program with respect to their legislated mandates to reduce economic losses. I evaluate these policies by utilizing a new metric which compares the trend in actual losses exhibited after the enactment of policy, to a projected trend based on losses from the pre-policy era. The trends in actual losses are either increasing at the same rate or a slightly iv larger rate as the projections from the period prior to the enactment of policy. This suggests there is no discernible evidence that the policies have an impact on reducing losses. The third study compares the degree to which U.S. federal funding levels for natural disaster research and development (R&D) correspond with the level of documented impact from individual disaster types. Storms cause the greatest human and economic losses in the U.S. however earthquake R&D receives the largest federal funding allocation with storm R&D receiving the second highest level of funding of all disaster types. This suggests there is some correspondence although not complete correspondence between federal funding levels and level of impact from individual disaster types. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 WHY NATURAL DISASTERS MATTER ...................................................... 7 1.2 DISASTER DATA ................................................................................... 12 1.3 CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH DISASTER DATABASES ...................... 14 1.4 DETERMINING DATABASE ROBUSTNESS ............................................... 20 1.5 THE DATABASES .................................................................................. 24 1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF DISASTER DATA ....................................................... 31 CHAPTER 2: RECONCILING THE APPARENT DISCONNECT BETWEEN CLAIMS ON GLOBAL DISASTER-CAUSED ECONOMIC LOSSES AND REGIONAL LOSSES ................................ 34 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 34 2.2 CONFLICTING CLAIMS ......................................................................... 35 2.3 DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION ............................................................ 40 2.4 DATA AND METHODOLOGIES .............................................................. 44 2.4.1 DATA OVERVIEW.......................................................................... 44 2.4.2 METHODOLOGIES ......................................................................... 48 2.4.2 .1 STEP 1 - ANALYZING THE TREND IN GLOBAL LOSSES................ 50 2.4.2.2 STEP 2 - DISAGGREGATING AND QUANTIFYING THE GLOBAL TREND INTO REGIONAL COMPONENTS ..……………………… 51 2.4.2.3 STEP 3 - ATTRIBUTING REGIONAL LOSSES TO DOCUMENTED FACTORS ..…………………………………………………....55 2.5 RESULTS ........................................................................................... ...55 2.5.1 STEP 1 - ANALYZING THE TREND IN GLOBAL LOSSES .................... 55 2.5.2 STEP 2 - DISAGGREGATING AND QUANTIFYING THE GLOBAL TREND INTO REGIONAL COMPONENTS……………………………56 2.5.2.1 NORTH AMERICA ……………………………………………60 2.5.2.2 ASIA …………………………………………………………66 2.5.2.3 EUROPE ……………………………………………………...71 2.5.2.4 AUSTRALIA ………………………………………………… 76 2.5.2.5 SOUTH AMERICA …………………………………………… 79 2.5.2.6 AFRICA ………………………………………………………83 2.6 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................... 86 2.6.1 STEP 3 - ATTRIBUTING REGIONAL LOSSES TO DOCUMENTED FACTORS ………………………………………………………….89 2.7 CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………… 92 CHAPTER 3: A NEW METRIC FOR GAUGING SUCCESS OF THE NFIP AND NEHRP: COMPARING PROJECTIONS OF PRE-POLICY LOSSES TO ACTUAL LOSSES .............. 98 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 98 3.2 METHODOLOGIES .............................................................................. 101 vi 3.3 NFIP ................................................................................................. 111 3.3.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................ 111 3.3.2 DATA .......................................................................................... 120 3.3.3 RESULTS ……………………………………………………….124 3.4 NEHRP ............................................................................................. 134 3.4.1 BACKGROUND ………………………………………………….. 134 3.4.2 DATA …………………………………………………………… 140 3.4.3 RESULTS ………………………………………………………... 142 3.5 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................... 152 3.6 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................... 156 CHAPTER 4: AN ASSESSMENT OF FEDERAL R&D FOR NATURAL DISASTERS ...... 159 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 159 4.2 DATA AND METHODOLOGIES ............................................................ 165 4.2.1 DATA .......................................................................................... 165 4.2.2 METHODOLOGIES ....................................................................... 170 4.3 RESULTS ............................................................................................ 175 4.3.1 ANALYSES OF ECONOMIC AND HUMAN LOSSES ........................... 175 4.3.2 BUDGET SNAPSHOT ..................................................................... 184 4.3.3 INTERVIEWS ................................................................................ 185 4.4 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................... 195 4.5 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................... 198 CHAPTER 4 APPENDIX ……………………………………………...201 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION .................................................................................... 204 5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 204 5.2 STUDY #1: THE RECONCILIATION STUDY .......................................... 207 5.2.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY ............................................................. 208 5.2.2 CHALLENGES TO THE STUDY ....................................................... 211 5.2.3 FUTURE WORK ............................................................................ 212 5.3 STUDY #2: THE EVALUATION STUDY ................................................ 213 5.3.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY ............................................................. 215 5.3.2 CHALLENGES TO THE STUDY ....................................................... 217 5.3.3 FUTURE WORK ............................................................................ 218 5.4 STUDY #3: THE CORRESPONDENCE STUDY ....................................... 219 5.4.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY ............................................................. 219 5.4.2 CHALLENGES TO THE STUDY ....................................................... 221 5.4.3 FUTURE WORK ............................................................................ 223 5.5 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................... 224 REFERENCES ..……… .............................................................................................. 225 vii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1: EXAMPLE SOURCES AND CAUSAL FACTORS ............................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Enhancing Psychological Support
    Appeal No. MDRCN001 CHINA: FLOODS 2006 17 October 2007 The Federation’s mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in over 185 countries. In Brief Final Report; Period covered: 2 August 2006 - 31 July 2007; Final appeal coverage: 26%. <Click here to link directly to the attached Final Financial Report>. Appeal history: • This appeal was launched on 02 August 2006 seeking CHF 5,950,200 (USD 4,825,791 or EUR 3,782,708) for 12 months to assist 240,000 beneficiaries. • Disaster Relief Emergency Funds (DREF) allocated: CHF 213,000 Related Emergency or Annual Appeals: 2006-2007 China Appeal MAACN001 2006-2007 East Asia Appeal MAA54001 Operational Summary: Every year, China is crippled by various natural disasters. In 2006, natural disasters were responsible for the deaths of at least 3,186 people. Over 13.8 million people were evacuated and relocated, with 1.93 million houses completely destroyed. According to latest statistics provided by the ministry of civil affairs, flooding in 2006 had caused a direct economic loss of USD 24 billion (CHF 30 billion). The Red Cross Society of China first responded to meet the emergency needs in Hunan province arising from typhoon Bilis. The Disaster Relief Emergency Fund allocated CHF 213,000 to initial relief distributions. A flood affected village in Hunan province. RCSC/International Federation Through the Federation’s China Floods Emergency Appeal (MDRCN001) launched on 2 August 2006, CHF 1.57 million was raised to provide additional support to beneficiaries through the national society.
    [Show full text]
  • American Meteorological Society 2011 Student Conference Paper
    Sea Surface Height and Intensity Change in Western North Pacific Typhoons Julianna K. Kurpis, Marino A. Kokolis, and Grace Terdoslavich: Bard High School Early College, Long Island City, New York Jeremy N. Thomas and Natalia N. Solorzano: Digipen Institute of Technology& Northwest Research Associates, Redmond, Washington Abstract Eastern/Central Pacific Hurricane Felicia (2009) Western North Pacific Typhoon Durian (2006) Although the structure of tropical cyclones (TCs) is well known, there are innumerable factors that contribute to their formation and development. The question that we choose to assess is at the very foundation of what conditions are needed for TC genesis and intensification: How does ocean heat content contribute to TC intensity change? Today, it is generally accepted that warm water promotes TC development. Indeed, TCs can be modeled as heat engines that gain energy from the warm water and, in turn, make the sea surface temperature (SST) cooler. Our study tests the relationship between the heat content of the ocean and the intensification process of strong Western North Pacific (WNP) Typhoons (sustained winds greater than 130 knots). We obtained storm track and wind speed data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and sea surface height (SSH) data from AVISO as a merged product from altimeters on three satellites: Jason-1, November/December: 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 Aug: 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jason-2, and Envisat. We used MATLAB to compare the SSH to the wind speeds, The strongest wind for Typhoon Durian occurred when the SSH was below using these as proxies for ocean heat content and intensity, respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: the GENESIS of TYPHOON
    ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: THE GENESIS OF TYPHOON CHANCHU (2006) Wallace A. Hogsett, Ph.D., 2010 Directed By: Professor Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science The phenomenon of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG), defined as the processes by which common tropical convection organizes into a coherent, self-sustaining, rapidly- rotating, and potentially destructive tropical cyclone (TC), consistently headlines research efforts but still remains largely mysterious. TCG has been described by a leading TC scientist as “one of the great remaining mysteries of the tropical atmosphere.” This dissertation was motivated by a specific case of TCG: the near- equatorial formation of a well-organized synoptic cyclonic disturbance during the active West Pacific Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). At very high resolution, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model proves capable of reproducing the multiscale interactions that comprise the TCG of Typhoon Chanchu. In the first part of the dissertation, the synoptic observations of the incipient disturbance (i.e., weak cyclonic vortex) are compared with the results from the WRF simulation. It is found that the disturbance tilts westward with height, and as a consequence of the vertical tilt, large-scale ascent (and thus precipitation) is dynamically favored on the downtilt-right side of the vortex. A major result is that the precipitation to the north of the tilted vortex serves as an attractor to the vortex through its generation of vorticity, thereby serving to dually diminish the vertical tilt of the vortex and deflect the incipient storm northward. Observations and the model simulation both indicate that TCG commences when the storm becomes vertically upright.
    [Show full text]
  • FLOODS 2 August 2006 the International Federation’S Mission Is to Improve the Lives of Vulnerable People by Mobilizing the Power of Humanity
    Appeal no. MDRCN001 CHINA: FLOODS 2 August 2006 The International Federation’s mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in over 185 countries. In Brief THIS EMERGENCY APPEAL FOR FLOODS IN CHINA SEEKS CHF 5,950,200 (USD 4,825791 OR EUR 3,782,708) IN CASH, KIND, OR SERVICES TO ASSIST 240,000 BENEFICIARIES FOR 12 MONTHS. THE FEDERATION HAS ALLOCATED CHF 213,000 FROM THE DISASTER RELIEF EMERGENCY FUND (DREF) TO INITIATE RELIEF ACTIVITIES. <click here to link directly to the attached Appeal budget> The 2006 flood and typhoon season is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious in recent years, resulting already in an economic loss of close to USD 10 billion. Since May to late July, five consecutive typhoons and tropical storms have swept through China. Damages wrought have contributed to overall flood-related disaster statistics across the country: from 1 January to 26 June, number of deaths are close to 1,500, with almost 254 million people affected, 8 million evacuated, 26 million hectares of farmland affected and more than four million rooms (the average farmhouse in China has one to three rooms) collapsed or damaged. Flooding season in China is, however, far from over and there is still potential for further devastation. Floods and typhoons wrecked homes and infrastructure. The scale of the humanitarian relief needs in China are huge and the Federation and the Red Cross society of China are fully engaged assisting and involving vulnerable group in a focussed disaster relief operation.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR Sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ Updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET
    Typhoon Neoguri Disaster Risk Reduction Situation Report1 DRR sitrep 2014‐001 ‐ updated July 8, 2014, 10:00 CET Summary Report Ongoing typhoon situation The storm had lost strength early Tuesday July 8, going from the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 3 on the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means devastating damage is expected to occur, with major damage to well‐built framed homes, snapped or uprooted trees and power outages. It is approaching Okinawa, Japan, and is moving northwest towards South Korea and the Philippines, bringing strong winds, flooding rainfall and inundating storm surge. Typhoon Neoguri is a once‐in‐a‐decade storm and Japanese authorities have extended their highest storm alert to Okinawa's main island. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2013 ranked Japan as first among countries in the world for both annual and maximum potential losses due to cyclones. It is calculated that Japan loses on average up to $45.9 Billion due to cyclonic winds every year and that it can lose a probable maximum loss of $547 Billion.2 What are the most devastating cyclones to hit Okinawa in recent memory? There have been 12 damaging cyclones to hit Okinawa since 1945. Sustaining winds of 81.6 knots (151 kph), Typhoon “Winnie” caused damages of $5.8 million in August 1997. Typhoon "Bart", which hit Okinawa in October 1999 caused damages of $5.7 million. It sustained winds of 126 knots (233 kph). The most damaging cyclone to hit Japan was Super Typhoon Nida (reaching a peak intensity of 260 kph), which struck Japan in 2004 killing 287 affecting 329,556 people injuring 1,483, and causing damages amounting to $15 Billion.
    [Show full text]
  • VIETNAM: TYPHOONS 23 January 2007 the Federation’S Mission Is to Improve the Lives of Vulnerable People by Mobilizing the Power of Humanity
    Appeal No. MDRVN001 VIETNAM: TYPHOONS 23 January 2007 The Federation’s mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in 185 countries. In Brief Operations Update no. 03; Period covered: 10 December - 18 January 2007; Revised Appeal target: CHF 4.2 million (USD 3.4 million or EUR 2.6 million) Appeal coverage: 26%; outstanding needs: CHF 3.1 million (Click here for the attached Contributions List)(click here for the live update) Appeal history: • Preliminary emergency appeal for Typhoon Xangsane launched on 5 Oct 2006 to seek CHF 998,110 (USD 801,177 OR EUR 629,490) for 61,000 beneficiaries for 12 months. • The appeal was revised on 13 October 2006 to CHF 1.67 million (USD 1.4 million or EUR 1.1 million) for 60,400 beneficiaries to reflect operational realities. • The appeal was relaunched as Viet Nam Typhoons Emergency Appeal (MDRVN001) on 7 December 2006 to incorporate Typhoon Durian. It requests CHF 4.2 million (USD 3.4 million or EUR 2.6 million) in cash, kind, or services to assist 98,000 beneficiaries for 12 months. • Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) allocated: for Xangsane and Durian at CHF 100,000 each. Operational Summary: The Viet Nam Red Cross (VNRC), through its headquarters and its chapters, are committed towards supporting communities affected by a series of typhoons (Xangsane and Durian). The needs are extensive, with 20 cities and provinces stretching from the central regions to southern parts of the country hit hard with losses to lives, property and livelihoods.
    [Show full text]
  • Observational Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Mechanisms Associated with Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (2006) After Its Landfall
    JUNE 2009 G A O E T A L . 1881 Observational Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Mechanisms Associated with Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (2006) after Its Landfall SHUANZHU GAO China National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China ZHIYONG MENG Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China FUQING ZHANG Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania LANCE F. BOSART Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 5 June 2008, in final form 8 December 2008) ABSTRACT This observational study attempts to determine factors responsible for the distribution of precipitation over large areas of southern China induced by Bilis, a western North Pacific Ocean severe tropical storm that made landfall on the southeastern coast of mainland China on 14 July 2006 with a remnant circulation that persisted over land until after 17 July 2006. The heavy rainfalls associated with Bilis during and after its landfall can be divided into three stages. The first stage of the rainfall, which occurred in Fujian and Zhejiang Provinces, could be directly induced by the inner-core storm circulation during its landfall. The third stage of rainfall, which occurred along the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, likely resulted from the interaction between Bilis and the South China Sea monsoon enhanced by topographical lifting along the coast. The second stage of the rainfall, which appeared inland around the border regions between Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guangdong Provinces, caused the most catastrophic flooding and is the primary focus of the current study. It is found that during the second stage of the rainfall all three ingredients of deep moist convection (moisture, instability, and lifting) are in place.
    [Show full text]
  • Pragmatic Use of Ict for Effective Disaster Management Governance and Participation
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF eBUSINESS AND eGOVERNMENT STUDIES Vol 1, No 2, 2009 ISSN: 2146-0744 (Online) PRAGMATIC USE OF ICT FOR EFFECTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT GOVERNANCE AND PARTICIPATION Maria Victoria G. PINEDA Information Technology Department, De La Salle University 2401 Taft Avenue, Manila, Philippines E-mail: [email protected] Abstract In an archipelago situated in Southeast Asia, the Philippines with close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, is a typhoon and tropical cyclone-friendly country. While the citizens across the islands are very familiar with typhoon behaviors, anticipation of the probable disaster may still be underestimated and conventional preparation would not be enough. A disaster is a form of chaos that is very inimitable, unpredictable and pertains to real-time monitoring before, during and after it takes place. And ICT can take a strategic role as far as preparedness, response and rehabilitation efforts are to be made. This paper intends to impart two pragmatic ways of utilizing ICT in disaster governance. First is facilitating cooperation among the different government agencies through a web-based Disaster Coordination System to address disaster management. A comprehensive workflow facility that permits remote exchange of data and transactions among regional centers, local municipalities and the national disaster coordinating council is the major feature of the system. Second is applying concepts of human resources but at the same time addressing the peculiarities of a volunteer in the design of a volunteer management system for the Philippine National Red Cross. The system utilizes web and mobile technologies. Both systems are perceived to be proactive and dependable references for policy-making.
    [Show full text]
  • Ud5020-October-2020.Pdf
    2 | | UD5020 UD5020 | | 3 DISTRICT COUNCIL OFFICERS 2020-2021 GOVERNOR Greg Horn (Lakewood) UNITE - It is all about serving [email protected] Highlighting inspirational news and successes CHIEF OF STAFF Mary Horn (Lakewood) to UNITE Rotarians with a common mission [email protected] within District 5020. COUNCIL CHAIR Caleb Summerfelt (Gateway) [email protected] GOVERNOR ELECT Lorna Curtis (Oak Bay) Caleb Summerfelt [email protected] Gateway Rotary UD5020 EDITOR GOVERNOR NOMINEE Dale Roberts (Comox Valley) [email protected] IMMEDIATE PAST GOVERNOR Maureen Fritz-Roberts (Comox) [email protected] SECRETARY Judith Marriott (Courtenay) [email protected] TREASURER Roan Blacker (Bainbridge Island) [email protected] ON THE COVER Rotary Club of Ladysmith, Celebrating 50 Years of Service - Forrest Field All Access Walking Trail: Paul Williams (left) Brian King (front middle) and Suzanne Otterson (right). 4 | | UD5020 UD5020 | | 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS DISTRICT 5020 CLUB NEWS ON THE COVER ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 3 FEATURE ARTICLES 20 YEARS OF PREPAREDNESS: HURRICANE THANK YOU, GOVERNOR HORN ......................................... 66 SEASON IS HERE ����������������������������������������������������������������� 38 BY JEFF HARRIS OCTOBER GOVERNORS MESSAGE ....................................... 6 BY ALLISON KINGSTON BY GREG HORN GIG HARBOR MIDDAY SOUP & SANDWICH DRIVE ............ 68 DROP INTO THE DREAM ������������������������������������������������������ 40
    [Show full text]
  • A Summary of Palau's Typhoon History 1945-2013
    A Summary of Palau’s Typhoon History 1945-2013 Coral Reef Research Foundation, Palau Dec, 2014 © Coral Reef Research Foundation 2014 Suggested citation: Coral Reef Research Foundation, 2014. A Summary of Palau’s Typhoon History. Technical Report, 17pp. www.coralreefpalau.org Additions and suggestions welcome. Please email: [email protected] 2 Summary: Since 1945 Palau has had 68 recorded typhoons, tropical storms or tropical depressions come within 200 nmi of its islands or reefs. At their nearest point to Palau, 20 of these were typhoon strength with winds ≥64kts, or an average of 1 typhoon every 3 years. November and December had the highest number of significant storms; July had none over 40 kts and August had no recorded storms. Data Compilation: Storms within 200 nmi (nautical miles) of Palau were identified from the Digital Typhoon, National Institute of Informatics, Japan web site (http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon/reference/besttrack.html.en). The storm tracks and intensities were then obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/en/JTWC/). Three storm categories were used following the JTWC: Tropical Depression, winds ≤ 33 kts; Tropical Storm, winds 34-63 kts; Typhoon ≥64kts. All track data was from the JTWC archives. Tracks were plotted on Google Earth and the nearest distance to land or reef, and bearing from Palau, were measured; maximum sustained wind speed in knots (nautical miles/hr) at that point was recorded. Typhoon names were taken from the Digital Typhoon site, but typhoon numbers for the same typhoon were from the JTWC archives.
    [Show full text]
  • Detail Response to Referee #1 (Anonymous) in the Following Letter, Each Comment by Referee #1 in Black Is Followed by Our Replies in Red
    Detail response to Referee #1 (anonymous) In the following letter, each comment by Referee #1 in black is followed by our replies in red. This paper proposes an assessment of the risk of coastal flooding and submersion by waves in one of the Palau islands surrounded by a coral reef in 2100, in a context of climate change. The study is certainly of interest, the study is rather comprehensive, well conducted and the paper is concise, clear and well written. The objectives of the paper are clearly exposed and the conclusions correspond to these objectives. We are grateful to you that you review. I have however two main concerns, that in my opinion prevent the acceptance of the paper in its present state: 1- The authors state that their first objective is to assess the present-day efficiency of the Palau coral reef as wave breaker and natural barrier against water level rise during a tropical cyclone (TC). They give (from what I understand) the corresponding figures obtained from a numerical hydrodynamic modeling, using as forgings the outer wave significant height (SWHo), the outer significant wave period, and the outer water level. These forcings are taken from a GFS simulation and observations of SWH in similar conditions. The percent of reduction of wave height due to the reef is 85.7% (87.9%) with (without) storm surge. As these values are used as a reference in the projective part of the paper, it would be relevant to confirm them (at least at first order) using observations. Recent TCs (Bopha and Haiyan) hit Palau, and it is may be possible to find even crude observations of (outer) SWHo and (reef) SWHr to check either the value of SWHr or the percentage of reduction (Table1).
    [Show full text]
  • World Bank Document
    Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 82638-PH INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCING DOCUMENT Public Disclosure Authorized FOR PROPOSED SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCING IN THE AMOUNT OF US$500 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES FOR Public Disclosure Authorized THE PHILIPPINES SECOND DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN TO FOSTER MORE INCLUSIVE GROWTH FOR POST TYPHOON RECOVERY December 04, 2013 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Department Philippines East Asia and Pacific Region Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. GOVERNMENT'S FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency unit: Philippine Pesos (PHP) as of November 12, 2013 US$ 1 = PHP43.59 Currency Unit US$1.00 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIR Applied Insurance Research JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation BPO Business Processing and Outsourcing KALAHI- Kapitbisig Laban Sa Kahirapan- CIDSS Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services BSP Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas LBP Land Bank of the Philippines CAS Country Assistance Strategy LDP Letter of Development Policy CAT-DDO Catastrophe Draw Down Option LGU Local Government Unit CCT Conditional Cash Transfer NCDDP National Community Driven Development Project COA Commission on Audit NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction
    [Show full text]