Regional Resilience for Resilience Regional Sustainable Development Sustainable Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2015 Disaster Asia-Pacific DISASTERS WITHOUT BORDERS WITHOUT DISASTERS

DISASTERS WITHOUT BORDERS Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2015 ISBN: 978-92-1-120699-9 Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will depend critically on greater resilience to to resilience greater on critically will depend Goals Development Sustainable the Achieving of higher levels achieve ways − as countries both works process But the disasters. natural the two how shows This report resilience. in disaster more invest can they development cycle. upward supporting the other in a virtuous − each connected inextricably are objectives countries many strike can disasters out that in Asia and the Pacific also points The report the reduce best therefore can that countries argues Borders without Disasters simultaneously. expertise. and information sharing − together closely work they if impacts the and risks imagery and other satellite valuable providing are countries spacefaring the region’s Already regional many further opportunities for are and there their neighbours, to information cooperation. for insidious. Drought, more are others a huge and sudden shock. But deliver disasters Most on focuses report The disaster. forgotten a often − killer silent and is a slow example, by recognizing be mitigated the impact can how example, for showing, drought agricultural as agriculture Reducing this risk means addressing risk. recurring as a long-term, drought local of the skills of advantage taking − be sustained to needs that ecosystem overall part of an of the land. custodians the ultimate who are people warning. The is timely of risk reduction component a key and other disasters drought For − covering ‘multi-hazard’ are warning systems efficient early that the most argues report that systems of end-to-end elements the key types of risk. It also identifies many different people. vulnerable the most reaching mile’, the ‘last warnings to deliver the right people to is getting the right information risk management part of disaster A critical be can produced being now quantities of data vast how shows at the right times. The report decisions. informed make to and analysed organized integrated in isolation, but closely considered be should not, however, risk reduction Disaster by be affected can sector as every Just planning and programming. with development its activities make to how consider needs to sector so every or floods or cyclones, earthquakes heart of sustainable at the risk reduction disaster places The report resilient. disaster development. ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. ESCAP United Nations publications may be obtained from bookstores and distributors throughout the world. provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It Please consult your bookstore or write to any of the following: supports Governments of countries in the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socioeconomic challenges Customers in: America, Asia and the Pacific in a globalizing world. The ESCAP office is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit the ESCAP website at www.unescap.org for further information. Email: [email protected] Web: un.org/publications This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit Tel: +1 703 661 1571 purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source Fax: +1 703 996 1010 is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of Mail Orders to: any publication that uses this publication as a source. United Nations Publications PO Box 960 No use may be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose Herndon, Virginia 20172 whatsoever without prior permission. Applications for such permission, with a statement United States of America of the purpose and extent of reproduction, should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York. Customers in: Europe, Africa and the Middle East United Nations Publication c/o Eurospan Group United Nations publication Email: [email protected] Sales No.: E.15.II.F.13 Web: un.org/publications Copyright © United Nations 2016 Tel: +44 (0) 1767 604972 All rights reserved Fax: +44 (0) 1767 601640 Printed in Bangkok ISBN: 978-92-1-120699-9 Mail Orders to: eISBN: 978-92-1-057608-6 United Nations Publications ST/ESCAP/2730 Pegasus Drive, Stratton Business Park Bigglewade, Bedfordshire SG18 8TQ United Kingdom

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Chief Conference and Documentation Service Section Tel: 66 2 288-1110 Office of the Executive Secretary Fax: 66 2 288-3018 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) E-mail: [email protected] United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200, Thailand Publication concept and cover design by Marie Ange Sylvain-Holmgren Cover photograph: think4photop/Shutterstock DISASTERS WITHOUT BORDERS Regional Resilience for Sustainable Development DISASTERS WITHOUT BORDERS Regional Resilience for Sustainable Development

Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2015

i Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2015

FOREWORD

As we approach the end of 2015, the Member States of the United Nations have taken stock of the 15-year anti-poverty effort embodied in the Millennium Development Goals and endorsed the new 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, framed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This new holistic and transformative agenda sets the strategic direction for building global resilience, among others by responding to concerns about the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels and increasing damage to ecosystems and biodiversity.

Prior to the adoption of the SDGs in September 2015, the global community agreed to reinforce the Goals with a new international framework to address the inextricable link between disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. In March, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 replaced the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. The Sendai outcome will guide the international community in its collective support to regions and countries in strengthening their resilience to disasters. In addition, Member States will gather for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, in December, to forge a new international agreement on climate action, ideally backed by the necessary resources for climate mitigation and adaptation. These new frameworks will have a profound impact on the lives of people all over the world for years to come.

iii The countries of Asia and the Pacific have borne the lion’s share of natural disasters. Over 40 per cent of the 3,979 disasters that occurred globally between 2005 and 2014 occurred in our region, resulting in the loss of half a million people, representing almost 60 per cent of the total global deaths related to disasters. More than 1.4 billion people were affected by these disasters, constituting 80 per cent of those affected globally. Our region has also faced severe economic damage of more than half a trillion dollars over the same time period, accounting for 45 per cent of global total.

This year was no exception to these trends. Across Asia and the Pacific disasters have continued to undermine hard-won development gains. In March 2015, cyclone Pam caused widespread damage in Vanuatu, and also impacted neighboring countries: almost 166,000 people - more than half of Vanuatu’s population - were affected. In April, an earthquake of 7.6 magnitude struck Nepal, leaving nearly 9,000 people dead and destroying more than half a million houses. This massive destruction has impeded Nepal’s bid to graduate from the status of a least developed country to a developing country by 2022. In May and June, India and Pakistan reported more than 1,000 deaths from a heat wave. In July and August, heavy monsoon rains claimed hundreds of lives and affected more than a million people in South and South-East Asia.

For a region at such high risk of disasters, building resilience is not a question of choice, but rather a collective imperative. Therefore, countries in Asia and the Pacific have identified disaster risk reduction as one of their core priorities, and requested that ESCAP intensify its regional partnership and support for disaster risk reduction and resilience as an integral part of achieving sustainable development in the region.

ESCAP’s work stands out for the assessment, identification and monitoring of a range of hazards, be they droughts, tropical cyclones, earthquakes or floods, including their impacts on people, economies, cities and the environment. This is why we have promoted the benefits of early warning and information management, some of which are often neglected, and advanced South-South cooperation to tap into the knowledge of more experienced partners. Building resilience of communities calls for long-term risk management, through strengthening of catastrophic insurance systems, social safety nets and relief delivery mechanisms, which become critical in times of disaster. Effectively managing the ecosystem, and deploying solutions based on emerging science and technology, are some of the best disaster risk mitigation approaches. ESCAP continues to offer a platform for exchanges on transboundary disaster risk in Asia and the Pacific. Integration of disaster risk reduction is at the heart of sustainable development, and this Report offers insights on how to operationalize the process in a way that fosters risk-sensitive development.

iv Regional cooperation is effective in addressing disasters, constituting a fundamental point underpinning all of ESCAP’s work. Only by coming together in the spirit of cooperation can the Asia-Pacific region hope to become truly disaster resilient and achieve sustainable development in the future.

In this context, the 2015 Asia-Pacific Disaster Report is a useful guide in the pursuit of greater disaster resilience and sustainable development for all.

Shamshad Akhtar Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Under the overall direction of Shamshad Akhtar, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of ESCAP, this report was prepared by a team led by Shamika Sirimanne, Director of the Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division. The core team consisted of Syed T. Ahmed, Alf Ivar Blikberg, Nia Cherrett, Shaina Hasan, Kelly Hayden, Sung Eun Kim, Ho Miu David Li, Ryan Meintjes, Matthew Perkins, Sanjay Kumar Srivastava and Keran Wang.

The team acknowledges the support of Youjin Choe, Junwen Dai, Weizhen Ding, Hang Dong, Chaoyang Du, Hae-Jin Kong, Zeying Li, Mingfeng Liu, Mei-Ling Park, Shweta Sinha and Haoran Zhang for producing maps and assisting research.

The team appreciates the inputs, comments and suggestions from the following ESCAP staff members: Aiko Akiyama, Sudip Ranjan Basu, Therese Bjork, Tiziana Bonapace, Daniel Clarke, Steve Gui-Diby, Masakazu Ichimura, Tae-Hyung Kim, Daniel Jeongdae Lee, Marisa Limawongpranee, Hamza Ali Malik, Nikolay Pomoshchnikov, Kiatkanid Pongpanich, Teerapong Praphotjanaporn, Puji Pujiono, Kareff Rafisura, Osama Rajkhan, Nokeo Ratanavong, Vatcharin Sirimaneetham and Vanessa Steinmayer.

Inputs from the following experts are noted with appreciation: E. Abashina, T. Khomjakova, Alexander Kleshchenko, V. Pavlova, O. Sirorenko, Oleg Virchenko, E. Zoidze and V. Zukov, National Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, Russian Federation; Lolita S. Bildan, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System; Woranut Chansury, Kampanat Deeudomchan, Thudchai Sansena, Anond Snidvongs and Jakrapong Tawala, Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, Thailand; P.G. Diwakar, Indian Space Research Organization; T. Srinivasa Kumar, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services; Khalid Mashfiq, United Nations Institute for Training and Research Operational Satellite Applications Programme; Sanath Panawennage, Arthur C. Clarke Institute of Modern Technologies, Sri Lanka; Shirish Ravan, United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response; Yun Wu, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation, China; and the Australian Department of Agriculture.

P.G. Dhar Chakrabarti prepared the technical background paper on mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in sustainable development.

The team would like to acknowledge the comments and suggestions of external peer reviewers: Charlie Benson, Asian Development Bank; Tony Elliott, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; Marisol Estrella, United Nations Environment Programme; V. Jayaraman, Indian Space Research Organization; Santosh Kumar, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Disaster Management Centre; Suju Li, National Disaster Reduction Center of China; Hui Lin, The Chinese University of Hong Kong; Jochen Luther, World Meteorological Organization; Shailesh Nayak, Ministry of Earth Sciences, India; Govind Nepal, National Planning Commission, Government of Nepal; Yuji Nino, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Yuichi Ono, Tohoku University, Japan; Rajesh Sharma, United Nations Development Programme; Rajib Shaw, Kyoto University, Japan; Le Huu Ti, University of Danang, Viet Nam; A.R. Subbiah, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System; Nitin Kumar Tripathi, Asian Institute of Technology; D. D. Prabath Witharana, Department of Agrarian Development, Sri Lanka; and Bingfang Wu, Chinese Academy of Science.

vi The report also benefited from the review of members of the Thematic Working Group on Environment and Disaster Risk Management of the United Nations Asia-Pacific Regional Coordination Mechanism.

Logistical support in processing and administration was provided by Suraphong Chuachamsai, Narada Kalra and Pradtana Limkrailassiri. Support from Patricia Budiyanto, Narada Kalra, Pradtana Limkrailassiri and Waraporn Pichetshote on proofreading is much appreciated.

Special thanks to Peter Stalker for substantive editing of the manuscript. The publication concept and design for the report created by Marie-Ange Sylvain-Holmgren is much appreciated. Printing services were provided by Clung Wicha Press.

Laura Lopez, Strategic Communications and Advocacy Section of ESCAP, and Robert Spaull of the Office of the Executive Secretary coordinated media communications.

vii CONTENTS

FOREWORD III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VI CONTENTS VIII BOXES XI FIGURES XIII TABLES XV ABBREVIATIONS XVI EXPLANATORY NOTES XX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY XXII

Resilience to disasters in Asia and the Pacific The disaster epicentre 5 Disasters large and small 8 pter 1 ch a pter Exposure to disasters 10 Cross-border threats 11 Economies at risk 18 Cities at risk 26 People at risk 29 Environment at risk 34 Building greater resilience 38 The unfinished agenda 41

Drought − the forgotten disaster Drought and development 49 Water and land management 52 pter 2 ch a pter Regional Drought Mechanism 56 Building resilience to drought 60 A comprehensive ecosystem-based approach 73

viii The value of early warning Early warning – basic concepts 80 Status of early warning systems in Asia and the Pacific 83 pter 3 ch a pter Regional cooperation 84 Developments in forecasting 88 National initiatives 89 Multi-hazard systems 90 Financing 91 Unmet needs in Indian Ocean and South-East Asian countries 94 Future priorities 99

Right information, right people, right time Information management practices 105 Pre-disaster risk assessment 106 pter 4 ch a pter Post-disaster assessment 113 Damage and loss assessment 115 Estimating future disaster losses 118 Transboundary concerns 120 Adding value to information 123 The right information to the right people at the right time 126 Making ICT systems resilient 127 Cell phones 129 Restoring communications and e-resilience 131 A roadmap to effective and resilient information management 132

ix At the heart of sustainable development The Sustainable Development Goals 142 Legal and regulatory mechanisms 148 pter 5 ch a pter Institutional mechanisms 150 Policies and planning 152 Finance and budgets 154 Decentralization 156 Capacity building at all levels 158 Strategic frameworks and national guidelines 159 Social sector 162 Productive sectors 164 Infrastructure 166 Cross-cutting issues 166 Multisectoral local planning 167 Climate change adaptation 168 The financial benefits of disaster risk reduction 170 Political economy of disaster risk reduction 171 The way ahead 173

REFERENCES 177

x BOXES

Box I-1 Disaster statistics in Asia and the Pacific Box I-2 Cyclone Pam in Vanuatu Box I-3 Nepal earthquakes, 2015 Box I-4 Impact of 2011 Japan earthquake on global markets and prices Box I-5 Risks to transboundary transport networks Box I-6 Vulnerability of small cities: the case of Tacloban, Philippines Box I-7 Towards disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction Box I-8 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) Box I-9 Mangrove ecosystems reduce loss of life and damage from cyclones Box I-10 Ecosystem degradation and the accumulation of risk in Dhaka, Bangladesh Box I-11 Building resilience in Gujarat, India Box II-1 Weather disturbances during El Niño Box II-2 Watershed management in Karnataka, India Box II-3 Watershed development for drought mitigation Box II-4 Land cover mapping Box II-5 Weather-based parametric crop insurance Box III-1 Improved early warning and preparedness reduces cyclone impact in Bangladesh Box III-2 Why do people respond - or not - to warnings? Box III-3 Common Alerting Protocol Box III-4 ESCAP Multi-donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness Box III-5 Main unmet needs in risk knowledge Box III-6 Main unmet needs in monitoring and warning services Box III-7 Main unmet needs in communication and dissemination Box III-8 Main unmet needs in response capability Box III-9 Testing warning systems, end to end Box III-10 Main unmet needs regarding cross-cutting issues Box IV-1 Indonesia disaster risk index Box IV-2 India’s National Database for Emergency Management Box IV-3 The Regional Space Applications Programme for Sustainable Development

xi Box IV-4 Rapid assessment for resilient recovery Box IV-5 Climate risk assessment for resilient development planning – Tamil Nadu, India Box IV-6 Open-source geo-referenced information systems Box IV-7 Open-source risk assessment tools Box IV-8 Databases and resources for understanding risk Box IV-9 The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters Box V-1 Disaster risk reduction in the global development agenda Box V-2 Laws and regulations for disaster risk reduction Box V-3 Disaster risk management: the divorce between discourse and practice Box V-4 Tracking public investment on disaster risk reduction in India Box V-5 Initiatives for integrating disaster reduction in development planning Box V-6 A paradigm shift for business Box V-7 A dual-purpose project: storm water management in Malaysia

xii Figures

Figure I-1 Disaster occurrence and impacts in Asia and the Pacific, total 2005-2014 Figure I-2 Mortality and numbers of people affected, 2005-2014 Figure I-3 Occurrence and impacts by subregion, total 2005-2014 Figure I-4 World’s worst natural disasters occur in Asia and the Pacific, 2005-2015 Figure I-5 Cumulative impacts of smaller, recurrent disasters, 1970-2014 Figure I-6 Countries with special needs, damage as a per cent of GDP Figure I-7 Damage from natural disasters as a per cent of GDP Figure I-8 Seismic risk in Asia and the Pacific Figure I-9 Asia-Pacific ocean basins, and the tracks of tropical cyclones 2005-2014 Figure I-10 Transboundary flood risk in Asia and the Pacific Figure I-11 Transboundary drought risk in Asia and the Pacific Figure I-12 Damage from natural disasters rising, 1970-2014 Figure I-13 Sectoral damage and losses in disaster-hit countries, per cent of total Figure I-14 Annual average damage from natural disasters by subregion, 1970-2014 Figure I-15 SMEs in the Philippines located in areas of high typhoon frequency Figure I-16 A drought in New Zealand in 2013 led to higher world prices for milk powder Figure I-17 10 countries with the highest predicted annual average losses from disasters Figure I-18 Breakdown of predicted annual average losses by type of hazard and subregion Figure I-19 Asia-Pacific city dwellers exposed to multiple hazards, 2014 Figure I-20 Asia-Pacific cities exposed to multiple hazards Figure I-21 Displacement by natural disasters by region, 2008-2013 Figure I-22 Displacement in Asia and the Pacific by subregion, 2008-2013 Figure I-23 Allocation of international aid for disasters in Asia and the Pacific, 2004-2013 Figure I-24 Asia-Pacific performance in the five HFA priorities for action, 2011-2013 Figure I-25 Exposure and coping capacities in Asia and the Pacific Figure II-1 Economic losses from drought Figure II-2 Income loss due to a drought year in eastern India Figure II-3 Water resources by source Figure II-4 Percentage of cultivated area equipped for irrigation Figure II-5 ESCAP Regional Drought Mechanism - Global Framework for Climate Services

xiii Figure II-6 Climate outlook reported for the summer monsoon in South Asia, 2014 Figure II-7 Vegetation index-based drought assessment, Sri Lanka, 2014 Figure II-8 NDVI anomaly (vegetation stress) of Sri Lanka Figure II-9 Drought in Mongolia Figure II-10 Satellite-based drought vulnerability map for China Figure II-11 Snow water equivalent monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, 2010 and 2011 Figure II-12 Agricultural insurance models Figure III-1 Disaster forecasting − the current and likely future state of science Figure III-2 Lead times and applications of early warning information Figure III-3 Evolution of the Indian Ocean Regional Tsunami Observation System 2004-2014 Figure III-4 Potential integration of tsunami and hydrometeorological warning systems Figure IV-1 Information management practices for understanding disaster risk Figure IV-2 Conceptual framework for disaster information management Figure IV-3 A multi-hazard risk map in Vanuatu Figure IV-4 Multi-hazard risk mapping in the Philippines Figure IV-5 National seismic map for Japan Figure IV-6 Qinghai-Tibet Railway seismic hazard map and 3D elevation, highlighting the risk scenarios Figure IV-7 Before and after images of Kathmandu for 2015 Nepal Earthquakes Figure IV-8 Economic losses from disasters Figure IV-9 Rapid assessment of post-disaster damage and losses Figure IV-10 Modelled and actual earthquake damage in Nepal, 2015 Figure IV-11 Estimated average annual losses from disasters, selected countries Figure IV-12 The Mekong river profile from headwaters to mouth Figure IV-13 Views of the value of geospatial information Figure IV-14 Right information, right people and right time Figure IV-15 Disaster information products in China Figure IV-16 Central disaster management radio communications system in Japan Figure IV-17 A roadmap to disaster information management Figure V-1 Capacity building framework for disaster risk management Figure V-2 Interconnected processes for integrating disaster risk reduction into sustainable development Figure V-3 Synergies between disaster risk management and climate change adaptation Figure V-4 Japan: process for project evaluation of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

xiv Tables

Table I-1 Human impact of disasters in Asia and the Pacific, total 2005-2014 Table I-2 Asia-Pacific countries with high exposure to, and risk from, natural disasters Table I-3 Recent investments in disaster-resilient infrastructure Table I-4 Multi-hazard hotspots Table I-5 Ecosystems help mitigate disaster hazards Table I-6 Land degradation classes in Asia and the Pacific, by country Table II-1 Major drought coping mechanisms of farm households – China, India, Thailand Table II-2 Multisectoral drought management in Thailand Table III-1 Evacuations and casualties in the Philippines Table III-2 The four elements of an end-to-end early warning system Table III-3 Development of IOTWS networks, 2004-2014 Table III-4 Cost effectiveness of early warning Table IV-1 Information needs of different stakeholders Table IV-2 Risk information scale for policy planning and project implementation Table IV-3 Network reliability, selected Asia-Pacific countries Table V-1 Resilience to disasters as a cross-cutting issue in the Sustainable Development Goals Table V-2 Principles for integrating disaster risk reduction into development

xv ABBREVIATIONS

AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response AAL annual average loss ABU Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union ADB Asian Development Bank ADBI Asian Development Bank Institute ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Center APDR Asia-Pacific Disaster Report APIS Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BNPB Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Agency for Disaster Management) CAP Common Alerting Protocol CAPRA Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment CBDRM community-based disaster risk management CBR cost-benefit ratio CCA climate change adaptation CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research CNES Centre national d’études spatiales COP Conference of the Parties CPP Cyclone Preparedness Programme CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters DRG disaster risk governance DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction DPNet Disaster Preparedness Network EM-DAT Emergency Events Database ENISA European Network and Information Security Agency ESA European Space Agency ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EWS early warning systems

xvi FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency G20 Group of Twenty GAATES Global Alliance on Accessible Technologies and Environments GDACS Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System GDP gross domestic product GDT Global Dairy Trade GEOGLAM Group on Earth Observations for Global Agricultural Monitoring GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS geographic information systems GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GLC Global Land Cover GLOF glacial lake outburst floods GPS Global Positioning System UNEP/GRID United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database GSDP gross state domestic product GSDMA Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority GSMA Groupe Speciale Mobile Association HAZUS Hazards US risk assessment tool HFA Hyogo Framework of Action HKH Hindu Kush-Himalayan region ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICT information and communications technology IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFRC International Federation of Red Cross IGBP-DIS International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information Systems IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IOTWS Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRBI Indonesia disaster risk index ISO International Organization for Standardization ITU International Telecommunication Union IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

xvii KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute LDCs least developed countries LLDCs landlocked developing countries MDGs Millennium Development Goals MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MIRA multi-cluster initial rapid assessment MRB Mekong river basin NDDI Normalized difference drought index NDMI National Disaster Management Institute NDVI Normalized difference vegetation index NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council NGO non-governmental organization NMHS national meteorological and hydrological service NRWP Natural Water Resources Policy NTT DoCoMo Nippon Telegraph and Telephone DoCoMo Mobile Phone Operator OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ODA Official Development Assistance ODI Overseas Development Institute OFDA Office of United States Foreign Disaster Assistance PAP programmes, activities and projects PEDRR Partnership for Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction PDNA post-disaster needs assessment PPP public-private partnership PTC WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones RADIUS Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters RESAP Regional Space Applications Programme for Sustainable Development RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RSMC Regional Specialized Metrological Centre SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SASCOF South Asian Climate Outlook Forum SCADA supervisory control and data acquisition SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SELENA Seismic Loss Estimation model SDI spatial data infrastructure

xviii SFDRR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 SIDS small island developing States SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises SMS short message service SOPAC Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Geoscience and Technology Division SOPs standard operating procedures TC ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee TCI thermal condition index TCP/IP Transmission Control Protocol / Internet Protocol) UAV unmanned aerial vehicles UN United Nations UN ASIGN United Nations Adaptive System for Image Communication over Global Networks UN HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Programme UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UN-DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research UNOOSA United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs UNOSAT United Nations Operational Satellite Applications Programme UNSDI United Nations Spatial Data Infrastructure UNU United Nations University UNU-EHS United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security USGS United States Geological Survey USAID United States Agency for International Development VSWI vegetation supply water index WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WRI World Resources Institute

xix Explanatory notes

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.

The term “ESCAP region” in this publication refers to the group of countries and territories/areas comprising: Afghanistan; American Samoa; Armenia; Australia; Azerbaijan; Bangladesh; Bhutan; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; China; Cook Islands; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Fiji; French Polynesia; Georgia; Guam; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Iran (Islamic Republic of); Japan; Kazakhstan; Kiribati; Kyrgyzstan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Maldives; Marshall Islands; Micronesia (Federated States of); Mongolia; Myanmar; Nauru; Nepal; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Niue; Northern Mariana Islands; Pakistan; Palau; Papua New Guinea; Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russian Federation; Samoa; Singapore; Solomon Islands; Sri Lanka; Tajikistan; Thailand; Timor-Leste; Tonga; Turkey; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Uzbekistan; Vanuatu; and Viet Nam.

The term “developing ESCAP region” in this publication excludes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and North and Central Asian economies from the above-mentioned grouping. Non-regional members of ESCAP are France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America.

The term “East and North-East Asia” in this publication refers collectively to: China; Hong Kong, China; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Japan; Macao, China; Mongolia; and Republic of Korea.

The term “North and Central Asia” in this publication refers collectively to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The term “Central Asian countries” in this publication refers collectively to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The term “Pacific” in this publication refers collectively to American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of), Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

xx The term “South and South-West Asia” in this publication refers collectively to Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey.

The term “South-East Asia” in this publication refers collectively to Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam.

The term “countries with special needs” in this publication refers collectively to least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing States in the Asia-Pacific region as indicated below.

13 least developed countries

Afghanistan,* Bangladesh, Bhutan,* Cambodia, Kiribati,** Lao People’s Democratic Republic,* Myanmar, Nepal,* Samoa,** Solomon Islands,** Timor-Leste,** Tuvalu** and Vanuatu** (*also a landlocked developing country, **also a small island developing State);

12 landlocked developing countries

Afghanistan,* Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan,* Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic,* Mongolia, Nepal,* Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. (*also a least developed country)

16 small island developing States

Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati,* Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of ), Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa,* Solomon Islands,* Timor-Leste,* Tonga, Tuvalu* and Vanuatu.* (*also a least developed country)

Values are in United States dollars unless specified otherwise.

The term “billion” signifies a thousand million. The term “trillion” signifies a million million. Reference to “tons” indicates metric tons.

In the tables, two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported, a dash (–) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible, and a blank indicates that the item is not applicable.

In dates, a hyphen (-) is used to signify the full period involved, including the beginning and end years, and a stroke (/) indicates a crop year, fiscal year or plan year.

Bibliographical and other references have, wherever possible, been verified. The United Nations bears no responsibility for the functioning of links to uniform resource locators (URLs) contained in bibliographical or other references to the work of external organizations.

xxi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Disasters without borders

Regional resilience for sustainable development

The Asia-Pacific region is exposed to natural disasters of many types which each year kill thousands of people and wreak vast economic destruction − often striking a number of countries simultaneously. Reducing disaster risk therefore means combining concerted local and national action with effective regional cooperation. Countries across Asia and the Pacific have made some progress, but still have much to do − and must remain vigilant since rapid economic growth, rising populations, and burgeoning cities are exacerbating existing risks and creating new ones.

This is a pivotal year for disaster risk reduction in Asia and the Pacific: 2015 marks the end of the ‘Hyogo Framework for Action’. It also marks the beginning of a new 15-year plan – the ‘Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’. In addition, in 2015 the world is transitioning from the Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals – whose achievement will depend critically on building much greater resilience to disasters.

Over the period 2005-2014 the Asia-Pacific region had 1,625 reported disaster events. Approximately 500,000 people lost their lives, around 1.4 billion people were affected, and there was $523 billion worth of economic damage. Many of these disasters were on a vast scale, but there were also multiple smaller events that never hit the global headlines. Indeed since the 1970s, most disasters in Asia and the Pacific have had fewer than 100 fatalities but cumulatively have affected 2.2 billion people and caused over $400 billion worth of damage. Even these figures are probably underestimates, since there is no standardized methodology for gathering disaster statistics, and many disasters go unreported.

The most disaster-prone subregion has been South-East Asia − many of whose countries lie along the earthquake-prone Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’, or along major typhoon tracks. There are also high seismic and flood risks in South and South-West Asia. The subregion with the greatest economic damage, however, has been East and North-East Asia which has the greatest concentration of exposed economic assets. In the Pacific island States the absolute number of people affected may be smaller, but this still represents a substantial proportion of their populations. In general, the most vulnerable countries are those with special needs − including small island developing States, least developed countries and landlocked developing countries.

xxii Cross-border threats

Many of the disasters in Asia and the Pacific are transboundary. The region has the world’s two most seismically active fault lines which cross many national frontiers. It also has three major ocean basins, so that a cyclone that develops in one of these basins can travel across many countries, causing heavy rainfall and flooding. Countries also share rivers and river basins, so floods too regularly spread across national boundaries. In addition, excessive snowmelt in high mountains, and glacial lake outbursts, can flood a number of countries downstream. And countries affected by the same climatic events can simultaneously be hit by drought.

People at risk − Across Asia and the Pacific 772 million people live on less than $1.25 a day and are particularly vulnerable to disasters. They tend to live in low-value, hazard- prone areas − not just city slums, but also steep slopes, seismic zones, floodplains and river banks or remote areas. The poorest lack the resources to take preventive measures, or buy insurance, and do not have savings to draw upon should disaster strike. Nor can they be sure of adequate government support through social protection. Disasters are likely to further impoverish many people − or push the ‘near-poor’ into poverty.

Economies at risk − Though the immediate concern is for human life and health, countries across Asia and the Pacific are also concerned about the economic cost – which appears to be increasing. And given the importance of Asia and the Pacific in the global economy, disaster impacts can soon reverberate around the world. Between the 1970s and the decade 2005-2014 damage to property, crops and livestock in Asia and the Pacific increased from $52 billion to over $523 billion − mostly in housing, transport and agriculture, with long- term costs persisting even decades later in some cases. On present trends, by the year 2030, annual losses in the region could average $160 billion per year.

Cities at risk − Half the region’s people live in urban areas, and by 2050 that proportion could rise above two-thirds. Many cities already struggle to provide basic services such as roads, water supplies, and sewage disposal, leaving the poorest people, especially those in slum areas, highly exposed to sudden shocks. Around 740 million city dwellers in Asia and the Pacific are now at ‘extreme’ to ‘high’ disaster risk − often living in multi-hazard hotspots that are vulnerable to cyclones, earthquakes, floods and landslides.

Environment at risk − One of the best defences against many natural disasters is a healthy natural environment with robust ecosystems. Unfortunately, much of this protection has been weakened. Over the past 50 years, humans have degraded the region’s forests, grasslands, deserts, tundra, mountains, and agricultural areas, as well as freshwater and coastal and ocean ecosystems − steadily reducing their capacity to protect against hazards.

An additional factor is climate change. The most significant impacts on ecosystems are likely to be in coastal areas, with risks of sea level rise, greater storm intensity, higher wind speeds,

xxiii greater wave action and higher sea surface temperatures. A complex sequence of events involving human activity, climate change and natural disasters then creates a vicious feedback loop. Breaking this cycle will require more effective management of ecosystems − along with measures for social protection, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Investing in resilience

Most international assistance for disasters is for emergency response and rehabilitation rather than prevention. Over the period 2004-2013, aid for disasters was $28 billion, of which most was for emergency response. However, the share of international aid going for prevention and preparedness has been rising in recent years.

Investing in disaster risk reduction is cost effective because it averts or minimizes costly damage. Investments in hydrometeorological early warning systems in Asia and the Pacific for example, can have returns between 4 and 36 times the initial investment. Nevertheless, over the last 10 years, countries in Asia and the Pacific have not made sufficient progress. Based on self-assessments for the Hyogo Framework of Action, for around half the countries progress was ‘not substantial’ or ‘relatively small’.

Drought − the forgotten disaster

One of the region’s most devastating natural disasters is drought. But this is a slow and silent killer, and therefore often forgotten, generally receiving less attention from the media, policymakers and politicians. Since 1970, across Asia and the Pacific drought has affected more than 1.6 billion people and cost an estimated $53 billion in damage. These figures are likely to be underestimates because droughts are hard to delineate: there are uncertainties about when they start or finish, and their impact is indirect and often spreads across several countries so it can be difficult to capture the full costs.

In Asia and the Pacific drought can take on distinctive forms. Elsewhere in the world, drought is typically experienced as a long period of low rainfall, resulting in dry, cracked earth, severe crop loss, dying livestock and famine. Asia and the Pacific has these droughts too, but it also has different, shorter forms − during severe winters, for example, or even during erratic monsoons.

Drought has significant impacts on many sectors, including fish and aquaculture, forestry, and industry. This report focuses, however, on agricultural drought, which takes four main forms: prolonged periods of low rainfall; irregularities in the monsoon season; reduced snowmelt or glacial runoff; and winter drought and ‘dzud ’– a combination of events leading to inadequate pasture or fodder for livestock.

A prolonged drought will slow down income growth not just in agriculture, but also in related activities, particularly agro-processing, with knock-on effects for employment and

xxiv incomes in other parts of the rural economy. Poor farmers respond to drought in different ways. Some may be able to absorb the impact, by migrating, or drawing on savings. But others may resort to ‘erosive’ coping mechanisms, such as removing children from school, taking high-interest loans, or selling off income-generating assets. In some cases farmers driven into debt have committed suicide.

Water and land management

By 2030, to meet rising demand, food production in Asia and the Pacific will need to increase by 50 per cent. But the region is already reaching its limit of available arable land, so it is vital to increase crop yields, which will rely on reliable sources of water. Some areas can be protected from drought by irrigation systems. However, in many of the region’s agrarian countries these systems are not very extensive or have fallen into disrepair. Moreover, in some catchments more groundwater is being withdrawn than is being replenished. Water availability can also be reduced by pollution from seawater or other contaminants.

Drought is particularly damaging when the soil is already degraded. Drought then further weakens the soil structure. In the most extreme cases this leads to desertification. A reduction in vegetative cover can then make the climate even drier, triggering a downward spiral. This makes it difficult to sustain rural development: in some countries soil and water degradation have negated one-third of productivity gains from technical progress.

Exacerbating all of these water and land management factors is the potential impact of El Niño. In 2015, the tropical Pacific Ocean is experiencing moderate El Niño levels. The strongest precipitation will be in South-East Asia and parts of the Pacific, especially in the dry season. In the wet season reduced rainfall could have significant impacts in the Central and Southern islands of the Pacific that depend on subsistence agriculture.

Drought risk will also be increased by climate change. Higher temperatures could result in changes to precipitation patterns, earlier snowmelt, and increased evapotranspiration, which could increase the risk of hydrological and agricultural drought. Glaciers, for example, are already retreating at an alarming rate, and the Northern hemisphere has seen a reduction in spring snow cover. In addition there have been changes in the patterns of extreme climate events. There are also likely to be more frequent heat waves.

Regional Drought Mechanism

Signs of drought can be observed in satellite-based data and images, many of which now come from the region’s spacefaring countries: China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and Thailand. Because many poorer countries lack the institutional capacity to integrate these high-end knowledge products into their operational drought monitoring and early warning systems ESCAP has established the Regional Drought Mechanism − which gathers data and imagery from the spacefaring countries and shares

xxv it with other countries, while building the capacity of experts and officials to use satellite- based data effectively. This service complements WMO’s Global Framework for Climate Services by providing more detailed, localized forecasts that can be updated during the growing season − allowing mid-course corrections and measures for drought mitigation.

Building resilience to drought

For drought, as for other disasters, building resilience requires a full disaster management cycle approach: mitigation and adaptation to minimize the risk; preparedness to respond as necessary; relief to assist those in need; and investment in long-term recovery. For this purpose, governments may have a dedicated drought management policy, or they may integrate drought management under disaster management, or address it under other sectoral plans, such as those for agriculture or water.

While the approach will differ from country to country there are often common elements. These should include: • Long-term risk management – If farmers know in advance that there is a strong likelihood of drought conditions, they can plant drought-resistant crops, budget water resources more carefully, or introduce water-saving techniques. • A livelihood approach – Drought mitigation should support poverty eradication as part of inclusive and sustainable development, with investment in rural infrastructure and in rural education. • Maintaining ecosystems – Ensuring healthy watersheds and soil systems. • Multisectoral management – End-to-end drought management requires extensive coordination and planning across all key stakeholders. • Using science and technology – The opportunities have expanded dramatically, particularly in space applications, hydrology and meteorology. • Agricultural insurance – This can be weather based, with payouts triggered by rainfall or temperature thresholds, with opportunities for public-private partnerships. • Social safety nets – Relief packages can include resources or equipment or temporary alternative employment. • Regional cooperation – Opportunities include the Regional Space Applications Programme for Sustainable Development (RESAP) and the Regional Drought Mechanism.

The value of early warning

A key component of disaster risk reduction is an effective early warning system − which combines science and technology with practical local approaches, and is fully integrated into broader national and regional strategies. The importance of early warning is clearly recognized in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, whose seventh global target is: “(g) Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030”.

xxvi An end-to-end early warning system has four main elements: risk knowledge; monitoring and warning; dissemination and communication; and response capability. Of these the region has made more progress in risk knowledge, and in monitoring and warning, but rather less in communication and response capacity. Across Asia and the Pacific there are still many gaps in early warning chains, particularly at the local level to cover the ‘last mile’. The ultimate test of an early warning system is whether it provides timely and actionable information to the most vulnerable people – including children, women, the elderly and people with disabilities.

Where possible, early warnings for individual hazards should be integrated into a multi- hazard system. This brings economies of scale, and is also more efficient and sustainable. And since a multi-hazard system will be activated more regularly it is likely to be better maintained and more readily available for hazards such as tsunamis that occur infrequently. For each hazard, there should be standard operating procedures, with one entity authorized to issue official warnings providing clear and unambiguous information to multiple actors.

Regional cooperation

The same hazard can affect many countries simultaneously − those that share coastlines, for example, or mountain ranges, or rivers. On their own, many countries would be unable to afford a comprehensive warning system for major disaster events, but they can achieve more if they share the costs and expertise with other countries and relevant regional and international organizations. For addressing tropical cyclones, for example, the Asia-Pacific region has two intergovernmental platforms − the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, whose activities are backed up by regional specialized meteorological centres in New Delhi and Tokyo. Another major step forward was in 2009 when, with support from ESCAP, governments established the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) which now has 12 member States and 19 collaborating countries.

A further impetus for regional action came from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This had a profound impact on the Hyogo Framework for Action − stimulating extensive operational and technical work and triggering greater investment in prevention and mitigation. Another milestone was the establishment in 2011 of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System.

Since then there has been further progress. The necessary technology has reached a high degree of sophistication. But still there are major disparities and gaps, particularly in countries that face high disaster risks but have low coping capacity − in ensuring fast and reliable dissemination of warnings, and in building the knowledge and capacity of communities to act appropriately – especially for transboundary river basin floods, landslides and flash floods.

xxvii Developments in forecasting

Many meteorological systems now provide weather information at the global or regional level, but users are increasingly seeking local forecasts. For this purpose, Asia and the Pacific can take advantage of its strength as a hub for science, innovation and good practices. The region has, for example, been adopting ‘climate model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting’ − which couples climate scenarios, river-basin hydrology and flood forecasting.

In 2011 RIMES and WMO, with financial support from ESCAP, started a joint effort to strengthen the national meteorological and hydrological service in five high-risk countries, where forecast generators and users now meet in biannual ‘monsoon forums’. In the Pacific, a group of countries have cooperated on the WMO-led Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project, which allows smaller countries to take advantage of weather services from neighbouring countries.

Economic benefits of early warning

The costs of early warning systems are generally far outweighed by the economic benefits. In Asia and the Pacific, investments in hydrometeorological warning services could have a benefit-cost ratio of between four and 36. Much of the investment required is in people – specifically the technical staff of national meteorological and hydrological services, to enable them to make forecasts more accurate and user friendly, and to increase warning lead times. For high-frequency, low-impact hazards, such as storms and floods the priority should be to improve local and national warning systems. However, for low-frequency, high-impact hazards, such as tsunamis, it would be more economical to take a collective or regional approach.

To strengthen the sustainability of early warning systems, warning information should be targeted to the needs of end users in multiple sectors of the economy. In this way, the early warning system can become an enabler for sustainable development, with clear economic benefits.

Given the resource constraints, the best way to maximize the impact of finance, especially donor funds, is through pooled funding. One example is the ESCAP Multi-donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness. Others are the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, and the Global Initiative on Disaster Risk Management.

Future priorities

Early warning systems and services are public goods that should be financed by government investment. The priorities should be to: 1. Integrate the concept of ‘early warning as a public good’ into national planning policy and decision-making.

xxviii 2. Strive to make early warning systems multi-hazard and people centred − reaching ‘the last mile’. 3. Ensure that forecasters take into account the different needs of specific end users and tailor products and services accordingly. 4. Use effective communication channels including broadcast media. 5. Link standard operating procedures with operational tests, including local evacuation drills. 6. Strengthen regional cooperation in early warning, going beyond coastal hazards to include hazards such as transboundary river basins floods. 7. Concentrate external assistance on low-capacity, high-risk countries.

Right information, right people, right time

A critical part of disaster risk management is managing the flow of information. Getting the right information to the right people at the right time saves lives and reduces losses, while also boosting people’s resilience. Some Asia-Pacific countries now have state-of-the- art disaster information management systems, but others have major gaps in both data and analysis.

Right information – Each phase of the disaster cycle – preparedness, response and recovery has specific tasks. During the response period, for example, these include impact and humanitarian needs assessments, and the coordination of resources.

Right people – Each phase also has its own primary stakeholder groups − disaster risk reduction actors, relief agencies and development practitioners who in turn may be operating at the international, regional, national and local levels.

Right time – There are windows of opportunity for collecting and providing information to each target audience. This requires a degree of predictability through regular reporting structures, as well as elements of flexibility to fulfil ad hoc information requests.

Before disasters happen, all potential risks should be evaluated. These pre-disaster assessments will combine qualitative judgments of vulnerability and exposure with quantitative methods that use multiple layers of geospatial data along with socioeconomic indicators. These assessments should be interactive two-way processes, with exchanges of information between risk assessors, managers, interested groups and the general public.

In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, information needs to be gathered rapidly and presented in situation reports. Again, one of the most valuable resources is satellite imagery, which can provide clear pictures of the situation before and after an event. In Asia and the Pacific, ESCAP, through its RESAP network, helps provide imagery from the region’s spacefaring member countries, at no cost, to disaster-affected countries. The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters is a global agreement between space agencies,

xxix aimed at providing a unified system for accessing and delivering fast and free satellite imagery and space data to countries affected by disasters. Another form of technology increasingly used in the aftermath of disasters is unmanned aerial vehicles, though this also raises important ethical issues.

Damage and loss assessment

After disasters, governments as well as other institutions, public and private, need to estimate the damage. In the past such assessments have had a number of weaknesses. One has been a lack of pre-disaster baseline information. Another has been that economic estimates often cover stocks not flows − that is, they assess the destruction of assets but not the cost of the interruption of business, for example, or the shortages of labour.

In 2013, the UN, the World Bank and the EU produced guidelines for producing a post- disaster needs assessment (PDNA) for major disasters. Smaller-scale events can use the same methodology but downscaled to meet local needs. To assist in this process, and increase the speed of evidence-based assessment, ESCAP has produced a rapid assessment manual which combines the PDNA sectoral methodology with the use of real or near real-time satellite data.

When considering investment in disaster risk reduction, governments will want to assess potential future losses. One approach is to consider the average annual loss (AAL). An AAL calculation has three components: hazard modelling; measures of exposure and vulnerability; and risk estimation. It uses both historical experiences and modelled predictions to arrive at a comprehensive picture of what can be expected.

Another approach is based on climate risk assessment − downscaling regional climate change scenarios to the national level. This involves three steps: regional climate modelling, physical impact assessment, and economic assessment. A number of countries now have pilot programmes for comprehensive climate risk assessment. Estimates for five South Asian countries, for example, indicate that climate change will cost these countries on average 1.8 per cent of their annual GDP, rising by 2100 to around 8.8 per cent.

Transboundary information

The region’s most established mechanism for transboundary information on disaster events is the Mekong River Commission – which works directly with the governments of Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Thailand and Viet Nam. Another is the Regional Flood Information System in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region − which has helped set up hydrometeorological stations across Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan.

ESCAP is supporting these transboundary information efforts in various ways, including developing regional land cover maps. In addition, one of ESCAP’s specialized regional

xxx institutions, the Asian and Pacific Centre for Development of Disaster Information Management, is promoting South-South and regional cooperation and helping countries address critical information gaps.

One of the most useful ways of sharing information is through web-based geoportals. ESCAP has worked with developing countries to establish cost-effective, easy-to-maintain portals for ‘geo-referenced information systems for disaster risk management’ (Geo-DRM). For this purpose ESCAP has been collaborating with UNOSAT, the Asian Institute of Technology, and the Applied Geoscience and Technology Division of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community. Portals have now been established in Bangladesh, the Cook Islands, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Nepal.

The Asia-Pacific region also has access to a variety of advanced subregional, regional and global geoportals. They include those developed by: the Indian Space Research Organisation; the Pacific Disaster Center; the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development; the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System; and ReliefWeb, a specialized digital service of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Making communications systems resilient

During disaster events, information management systems are themselves vulnerable so should be designed to absorb shocks and maintain services when faced with limited connectivity or increased traffic volume. ESCAP’s Asia Pacific Information Superhighway promotes resilient infrastructure backbones that have a balance of terrestrial and submarine fibre optic connectivity.

Individual items of energy and transport infrastructure, such as bridges or electricity substations, are typically monitored remotely by centralized SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) systems. But these are generally standalone and proprietary so need to be integrated as interdependent parts of a critical information network.

Nowadays large volumes of data are also generated by new information sources − smart phones, for example, and social media. Analysis of this ‘big data’ can give immediate indications of population movements, for example, or other behaviour that can be useful before and after disaster events. Cell phones can also be valuable for general disaster management – receiving text messages and warnings of incoming disasters, or transmitting crowd sourced imagery of damage and impact.

These applications depend on resilient data networks. To make best use of these tools, governments should focus primarily on maintaining the infrastructure – ensuring, for example, that commercial telecommunications networks can cope with disruptive events and handle usage spikes. For this purpose they can also use mobile and airborne base stations. In addition, emergency response teams can be equipped with dedicated communications networks such as terrestrial trunked radio. xxxi A roadmap to effective and resilient information management

Providing the right information to the right people at the right time, entails five principal steps.

Step 1 – Understanding risk − Assessing risk in qualitative and quantitative terms, while considering issues of financing and insurance. It also means taking into account the culture and psychology behind risk, and creating partnerships for building resilience.

Step 2 – Establishing information sharing policies − Policies on data sharing should be in place before disasters strike. Policies can cover technical issues such as standardization and formats, platforms, procedures and protocols, timeframes, naming conventions, authorization and classification.

Step 3 – Generating actionable information − Governments need to establish a classification system for information types, along with the implied actions. As information comes into a disaster risk management system it can then be assigned to an appropriate actor.

Step 4 – Customizing information and reaching people at risk − This requires location- based information services and decision support tools − with strong institutional links for coordination between developmental and planning actors.

Step 5 – Using real-time information − Coordinating real-time data flows, particularly for disasters with transboundary origins, requires extensive regional and international cooperation.

Protecting ICT infrastructure − Critical infrastructure should be planned and designed with disaster management in mind, as it underpins the functioning of effective and resilient information management systems.

At the heart of sustainable development

Disaster risk reduction is an essential component of sustainable development. Measures to reduce the impact of disasters − building stronger infrastructure, for example, or better housing, or better organized communities − also support development in general. But the process works both ways, because countries with higher levels of development are also better able to defend themselves from disasters: as their economies grow, infrastructure becomes more robust and governments that have more resources can provide stronger social protection.

Disaster risk management should therefore be closely integrated with development planning and programming. This makes it a responsibility for every part of government − from education to health to transport to social protection. Just as every sector can be affected by earthquakes or floods or cyclones, so every sector needs to consider how to make its activities disaster resilient. xxxii The Sustainable Development Goals

The understanding of the need for disaster risk reduction and its importance for sustainable development has increased over the years − from the 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development, to the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), to the 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030. Disaster risk reduction is also central to the proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which address this priority in goals related to poverty eradication, food security, infrastructure, cities and human settlements, climate change and ecosystems. Activities in all these areas should reduce existing risks and also avoid creating new ones − what is referred to as ‘prospective’ or ‘anticipatory’ risk management.

Legal and regulatory mechanisms

Risk management requires a sound legal and regulatory structure. This refers not just to laws covering disaster management but also legislation for all other relevant sectors. Recently, some Asia-Pacific countries have introduced specialized legislation on disaster management. The region’s developed countries, however, generally do not have stand- alone national laws but have embedded risk reduction in legislation across various sectors. Another challenge for developing countries is to regulate the private sector − especially when enterprises are constructing critical infrastructure.

Institutional arrangements

In Asia and the Pacific the institutional arrangements for disaster risk reduction broadly follow one of three models. The first is a specialized authority, usually chaired by the head of government. The second is high-level interministerial coordination. In the third model, disaster management is the exclusive responsibility of a single agency or government department. For many years most countries used the third model. This is now giving way to the first or second models, but even these are not yet working effectively. Either the agencies and committees have not met regularly or they have not established the necessary actions and monitoring mechanisms, or are working in silos without effective outreach. Typically their high-level officials have been drawn from the armed forces, police and civil defence, who tend to focus on disaster response and preparedness − rather than integrating disaster risk reduction with other sectors. The HFA prescribed ‘multisectoral national platforms, with designated responsibilities at the national through the local levels’, but as of 2013 across Asia and the Pacific only 14 out of 64 countries had set up such platforms, and none were meeting regularly.

Policies and planning

Policy implementation broadly differs according to level of development. The region’s developed countries have invested enormous resources in structural and non-structural measures −

xxxiii and have introduced low-cost community-based initiatives for disaster risk reduction. Those countries that face high disaster risks have also started making such investments with some success. But most of the region’s developing countries lack the necessary resources and capacity, and initiatives are often driven by UN agencies and donors with little buy-in from local governments. Moreover there may be no clear guidance on how national policies and strategic action plans are to be integrated across government sectors.

Finance and budgets

Countries that have special funds for disaster risk management have mostly used these for disaster response and humanitarian relief. National governments often make a commitment for community-based disaster management but fail to allocate the necessary resources, leaving the agenda in the hands of NGOs who have been managing small pilot projects. The mid-term review of the HFA found that although 86 countries had made local governments legally responsible for local disaster risk management, only 20 had made the corresponding budget allocations. International assistance for such measures is also limited: in the Asia-Pacific region, over the past decade only 0.65 per cent of total ODA was devoted to disaster prevention and preparedness.

Capacity building at all levels

Capacity development for disaster risk reduction should permeate all sectors, at all levels of government, across all stakeholder groups and for all types of hazard, natural and manmade. In the case of construction, for example, this means increasing the capacity of architects, engineers and masons, and designing or retrofitting buildings so as to be earthquake resistant. But it also means enhancing the supervisory and enforcement capacity of government officials.

At the same time countries will want to improve their institutional expertise. Universities and other institutions of higher learning can develop a pool of professionals on disaster risk management, while research institutions can engage in scientific, policy and applied research. Several countries in Asia and the Pacific now have specialized institutes for training on disaster management. ESCAP is partnering with those institutions in China, India and Indonesia to help them share their capacity-building programmes with other countries that have fewer resources.

Strategic frameworks and national guidelines

Integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning requires a strategic framework within the national development plan, complemented with national and sectoral guidelines. In the health sector, for example, these should ensure that programmes, activities, projects and critical infrastructure are protected from the risks of disasters, and further strengthened so that they respond during emergencies with pre-defined operation procedures. Similarly, in

xxxiv the education sector the aim should be to protect infrastructure, programmes, and activities, while also creating awareness of hazards, and building scientific, technical and professional skills. National guidelines should also cover cross-cutting issues such as poverty reduction, gender equality, child protection and disability.

There should also be guidelines for productive sectors. In agriculture, these can address such issues as soil and water conservation and accurate weather forecasts. In addition, the private sector should be encouraged to factor disaster risk into overall corporate planning and investment not only to protect themselves but also help make society as a whole more resilient. Even if a private businesses factor in the costs of hazards in their internal rates of return they will not generally take into account the external societal or environmental risks they are creating. Governments, on the other hand, should be able to do so − taking a longer-term and broader view and acting in the public interest.

Another priority is resilient infrastructure. All new infrastructure should be constructed with an appropriate margin of safety, and all existing critical infrastructure should be audited and upgraded to cope with worst-case scenarios. Similar considerations apply to buildings generally. Each city needs to identify and reduce the stock of unsafe buildings. This may require demolition or retrofitting − for which there could be both incentives for investment, and penalties for non-compliance.

Many disaster risk reduction measures are similar to those for climate change adaptation − particularly those related to hydrometeorological disasters, such as drought-proofing, flood protection, and saline embankments, and developing alternative livelihoods. Combining the two processes is likely therefore to be more efficient and cost-effective. At the local level in particular, the two must converge with clear plans of action, funding arrangements, and guidelines.

Disasters without borders

The scale of modern day disasters, combined with instant international communications, means that many disasters, national or regional instantly, become global phenomena. Mounting economic losses, combined with the spectre of climate change, are also bringing disasters to the centre stage of public policy.

There have been many encouraging developments − particularly in preparedness projects which have dramatically reduced disaster mortality. Other positive signs include the success of regional and global cooperation on disaster risk reduction, and the unprecedented participation of countries and other stakeholders in the recently concluded World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. The task now is to translate these opportunities and commitments into action throughout Asia and the Pacific − to establish disaster risk reduction at the heart of sustainable development.

xxxv Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

2 m D utt a a m Photo/Arind ESCAP 1 and thePacific to disaster s inAsia Resilience 3

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

CHAPTER 1 Resilience to disasters in Asia and the Pacific

“Nepal was on right track to achieve MDGs and other internationally agreed development goals. The devastating earthquake of April 25 and its subsequent powerful aftershocks have severely undermined our development endeavors and reversed the development gains achieved over the years.”

Sushil Koirala, Prime Minister of Nepal at the International Conference on Nepal’s Reconstruction, on 25th June 2015 in Kathmandu

Asia and the Pacific is the world’s most disaster-prone region − exposed to earthquakes, floods, droughts and typhoons, and many other powerfully destructive natural phenomena. Over recent decades the countries of the region have been striving to become more resilient to disasters, and protect their most vulnerable communities. But there is a lot more to do. The region’s rapid economic growth is exacerbating many existing risks and creating new ones.

This is a pivotal year for disaster risk reduction Moreover, in December 2015, at the 21st in Asia and the Pacific: 2015 marks the end Session of the Conference of the Parties to of the ‘Hyogo Framework for Action’ (HFA), a the United Nations Framework Convention ten-year disaster management framework created on Climate Change, the world will attempt in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean to align efforts at climate change adaptation tsunami. But it also marks the beginning of a with those for building resilience and reducing new 15-year plan – the ‘Sendai Framework for disaster risk. Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’.

In addition, in 2015 the world is transitioning In this report resilience to disasters is defined as from the Millennium Development Goals to ‘the capacity of countries to withstand, adapt to, the Sustainable Development Goals – whose and recover from natural disasters’.2 This chapter achievement will depend critically on building will consider the extent to which countries in much greater resilience to disasters. Indeed, Asia and the Pacific have achieved this – tracking Sustainable Development Goal 1 on ending all the relevant goals and indicators and also poverty has as a core target: ‘By 2030, build the identifying the challenges that remain. It builds resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations, and reduce their exposure and on the findings of the Asia-Pacific Disaster vulnerability to climate-related extreme events Report 2012 and the ESCAP theme study 2013, and other economic, social and environmental Building Resilience to Natural Disasters and Major shocks and disasters.’1 Economic Crises.

4 world’s poorest people. region thatishome tomore than halfofthe 2014 the greatest loss of life, are floodsandstorms, 2005- over but the period In Asiaand the Pacific themostfrequent disasters orEurope. America in North thanand 30times someone more likely living andtheCaribbean, America living inLatin in Africa, as someone almost six times as likely affected disaster asa personby anatural living and thePacific tobe aslikely wastwice thepastdecade,Over aperson livinginAsia cent of global damage. 45per –accounting for worth – $523billion the sametimethere was vasteconomic damage deaths and80percentofthoseaffected. At totals, the region accounted 60 per centof for were affected. This meantthatoftheworld lost theirlives, andaround people 1.4billion the global total. Approximately 500,000 people –over 40per cent disaster of events reported coincides with the HFA, the region had 1,625 prone region. 2005-2014 that the period Over Asia and thePacific isthe world’s most disaster- T h Human impactofdisastersinAsiaandthePacific, total2005-2014 TableI-1 e Total Others Floods Storms Earthquakes andtsunamis http://www.emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April :Source ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from di sas t e r ep 6 i 3, 4 3, ce ntr 200,000, was the 5 e All this in a thisina All Lives lost 483,752 166,762 199,418 73,772 43,800 their island populations. represented this still asubstantial proportion of subregion peopleaffected, had fewer though economic damage. ofthe The countries Pacific of economic assets, alsosuffered thegreatest Asia which, ofitshighconcentration because this period, however, was East and North-East over with the largest numberofpeopleaffected risks.have highseismic andflood Thesubregion monsoons. andSouth-West South Asiaalso tracks, toerratic aswell as beingvulnerable PacificFire’‘Ring of typhoon and also on major in this subregion countries are along the located I-3). I-2andFigure people (Figure Many and177,000 deaths –threeevents per 100,000 prone subregion Asia, wasSouth-East with 512 2005-2014 themostdisaster- theperiod Over disasters go (Box unreported I-1). disaster statistics, gathering for andmany small As yet, there methodology isnostandardized aggregate numbers are underestimations. probably emphasized, however, theseregional thatall 56,000people.Asia thatkilled Itshouldbe 2010 –asevere heatwave and Central inNorth theresult in ofone event this wasprimarily of deaths from extreme temperatures –though I-1).and Figure There were also large numbers andtsunamis(Tableresult ofearthquakes I-1 People affected(millions) 1,366 199 771 321 74 5

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure I-1 Disaster occurrence and impacts in Asia and the Pacific, total 2005-2014

a) Occurrence b) Deaths 800 250

600 200 150 400 100 200 Thousands 50

Floods Storms Earthquakes Landslides Others Earthquakes Storms Extreme Floods Others & Tsunamis & Tsunamis temperatures

c) Affected d) Damage 800 300 250 600 200

400 150

Millions 100 200 50 Billions of 2005 US dollars Floods Storms Droughts Earthquakes Others Earthquakes Floods Storms Droughts Others & Tsunamis & Tsunamis

Source: ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. emdat.be/ (Accessed April 2015).

Box I-1 Disaster statistics in Asia and the Pacific

Access to reliable disaster data has been difficult. This is partly due to a lack of agreed classifications and definitions for even the most basic indicators − such as the number of events, the number of deaths and affected people, and the direct economic impacts. In the absence of standardized statistics, efforts to aggregate, analyse and interpret the data often rely on various secondary sources.

Improving disaster statistics is a regional priority. In 2014 Asia-Pacific countries requested ESCAP to establish an expert group to develop a regionally agreed basic range of disaster statistics. This work was given a renewed impetus from the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and has been further stimulated by the ongoing formulation of SDG targets and indicators, which has increased the demand for specific disaster-related statistics. The intergovernmental expert group has already begun its work, and a proposal for a basic range of disaster-related statistics is expected to be presented in 2016 during the 72nd ESCAP Commission.

Another important initiative is the Global Centre for Disaster Statistics. This has been launched by the United Nations Development Programme and the International Research Institute of Disaster Science at Tohoku University. The centre aims to deliver high quality and accessible disaster data, and plans to set up disaster databases in countries that do not have them, while also building the capacity of countries to understand and use disaster databases.7

6 Millions 1000 200 400 600 800 100 200 300 400 500 600 Occurrence andimpactsbysubregion,total2005-2014 Mortality andnumbersofpeopleaffected,2005-2014 emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April :Source ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. Database. Available from http://www.emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April (Accessed 2015), April data from andthenumber of affected and mortality EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster : Source Fi Fi North-East gureI-3 gureI-2 North-East East and East and Asia Asia Occurrence ESCAP basedon population datafrom ESCAP database. statistical Available from http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/ South-East South-East Asia Asia 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 a) Occurrence c) Affected South-West South-West South and South and Global Global Asia Asia Central Asia North and Pacific Pacific North and Asia- Central Asia- Asia

North-East b) Affectedper100,000people North-East a) Deathsper100,000people East and East and

Asia Asia Pacific Pacific South-East South-East Asia Asia

Billions of 2005 US dollars Thousands 100 200 300 400 120 160 200 40 80 South-West South-West South and South and Asia Asia North-East North-East East and East and Asia Asia North and North and Central Central Asia Asia South-East South-East Asia Asia

Pacific

Pacific d) Damage b) Deaths South-West South-West South and South and Asia Asia SIDS SIDS Central Asia Central Asia North and North and

Pacific Pacific 7

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Disasters large and small These included:

Asia and the Pacific is hit by most of the • Cyclone Nargis – In 2008, this category-3 world’s major disasters. Over the last ten years, cyclone struck the coast of Myanmar including the region has had eight of the ten largest Yangon, the largest city. More than 138,000 disasters in terms of fatalities, and four of people were killed or reported missing, 2.4 the ten largest in terms of economic damage million people were severely affected and (Figure I-4). around 800,000 people were displaced.8

Figure I-4 World’s worst natural disasters occur in Asia and the Pacific, 2005-2015

a) by Fatality Thousands 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Haiti-Earthquake 2010 222,570 people Myanmar-

2008 Tropical Cyclone 138,366 people China-Earthquake 2008 Pakistan-Earthquake 2005 Japan-Earthquake

2011 and Tsunami Nepal-Earthquake 2015 Philippines-Typhoon 2013 ■ Asia-Pacific Occurrence Haiti- ■ 2010 Bacterial disease Rest of the world Deaths India-Flood

A ected 2013 Damaged Indonesia-Earthquake 2006

b) by Damage Billions of 2005 US dollars 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Japan-Earthquake

2011 and Tsunami $ 165 billion USA-Tropical

2005 Cyclone $ 125 billion China-Earthquake 2008 USA-Tropical

2012 Cyclone USA-Tropical

2008 Cyclone Thailand-Flood 2011 Chile-Earthquake 2010 ■ Asia-Pacific USA-Tropical ■ 2005 Cyclone Rest of the world China-Extreme

2008 Temperature USA-Tropical

2005 Cyclone

Source: ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. emdat.be/ (Accessed April 2015), and Nepal (2015) for Nepal Earthquake 2015.

Occurrence

Deaths A ected 8 Damaged

Thousands 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Haiti-Earthquake 2010 Myanmar-

2008 Tropical Cyclone China-Earthquake 2008 Pakistan-Earthquake 2005 Japan-Earthquake

2011 and Tsunami Nepal-Earthquake 2015 Philippines-Typhoon 2013 Haiti-

2010 Bacterial disease India-Flood 2013 Indonesia-

2006 Earthquake Occurrence Cumulative impactsofsmaller,recurrentdisasters, 1970-2014 emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April :Source ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. extreme temperatures anddroughts are often disaster databases. And some like major events from disasters are orexcluded under-reported to beanunderestimate.is likely Many smaller I-5). ofdamagebillion (Figure worth This too over $4002.24 billion peopleandcaused fatalities but cumulatively these have affected per cent of disasters have than had100 fewer fatalities.fewer Indeedsincethe1970s, 85 affected by multipleevents but with recurring theheadlines,fatalities grab the region isalso Although high-impact disasters with high • • Fi 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 gureI-5 the epicentre. of China’s to largest wasclose citieswhich of damage –much ofthis in Chengdu, one $60 billion worth 87,000 people and causing province killing Sichuan struck earthquake –In2008,China earthquake amagnitude 7.9 3.8 per centof Japan’s GDP. $165 billion in damage,causing representing the world’s disaster, natural costliest-ever power plantatFukushima.nuclear This was around 20,000people. Italsodamaged the away buildings, roads andkilling and vehicles that hittheJapaneseeastcoast, sweeping a tsunami caused magnitude 9.0earthquake Japan andtsunami–In2011, earthquake a than 100fatalities Events withmore Occurrence fatalities orfewer Events with100

Billions 1 2 3 4 5 than 100fatalities Events withmore Affected be resettled. Many had people who livedto near riverbanks million. total damage and losses ofaroundcaused $204 andthe subsequent floods and landslides cyclone andFiji.islands ofSamoa In Samoa, the initial In 2012, Evan hit the cyclone thecategory-4 lead to landslides and floods. risk fromrisk flooding. rivers,of China−thatblocked increasing the Nepal and one inthe autonomous region Tibet landslides−fiveNepal in triggered sixcritical Power Station. in And the2015earthquake accident attheFukushima Nuclear Daiichi in Japan, example, for ledtoamajornuclear multiple, consequences. cascading The tsunami interlinked.are often have One major disaster can they separately be itemized disasters can While consequences Cascading 1.6 billion people. million, while droughts have more affected than almost10 almost 78,000peopleandaffected 1970,Since extreme temperatures have killed quiteslowly. develop they because overlooked subsequent floods which disrupted agriculture. disrupted subsequent floods which $108 million, some were ofwhich theresult of fatalities orfewer Events with100 Occurrence 11 In Fiji, total damage andlosses were

Billions of 2005 US dollars 300 600 900 9 10 Tropical too often cyclones than 100fatalities Events withmore

Damage fatalities orfewer Events with100 12

9

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Exposure to disasters Although their fatalities and losses are small in absolute numbers, each disaster typically affects Asia and the Pacific is also in the forefront a high proportion of their populations and from the perspective of disaster risk. As defined their economic activity. Since 2005, SIDS in by the World Risk Report 2014, risk is the Asia and the Pacific have recorded damage of combination of exposure, susceptibility, and around $500 million, and seen 830,000 people coping and adaptive capacities. On this basis, affected – by cyclones, floods and tsunamis.13 nine of the 15 countries in the world with the Natural disasters have also laid tremendous highest exposure and risk are in Asia and the economic burdens on SIDS – eroding hard- Pacific – with Vanuatu as the most threatened earned development gains. LDCs have lost, on (Table I-2). average, almost 1 per cent per year since 1970 while LLDCs have lost over 0.5 per cent of Countries with special needs GDP (Figure I-6).14

The most vulnerable countries are those with special needs, including small island developing Several low-income developing countries and States (SIDS), least developed countries (LDCs) SIDS recorded damage that even surpassed their and landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). GDPs. This was the case in the Democratic Five of the countries in Table I-2 are SIDS. People’s Republic of Korea in 1995, in Samoa

Table I-2 Asia-Pacific countries with high exposure to, and risk from, natural disasters

Rank Exposure Risk 1 Vanuatu Vanuatu 2 Tonga Philippines 3 Philippines Tonga 4 Japan Guatemala 5 Costa Rica Bangladesh 6 Brunei Darussalam Solomon Islands 7 Mauritius Costa Rica 8 Guatemala El Salvador 9 El Salvador Cambodia 10 Bangladesh Papua New Guinea 11 Chile Timor-Leste 12 Netherlands Brunei Darussalam 13 Solomon Islands Nicaragua 14 Fiji Mauritius 15 Cambodia Guinea-Bissau Source: Alliance Development Networks and UNU-EHS, 2014.

10 The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www.emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April :Source ESCAP based on GDP data from ESCAP database (Accessed statistical 22 May 2015), and damage data from EM-DAT: Damage fromnaturaldisastersasapercentofGDP Countries withspecialneeds,damageasapercentofGDP :Source ESCAP, 2015f. of GDP (Box 1-2). damage andlossesequivalent to64percent GDP, andin Vanuatu Pam cyclone caused damage andlossesequivalenttoone-third of acombined caused in Nepal theearthquakes in Mongolia I-7). in1996(Figure In2015 1990s,in theearly in Vanuatu in1985, and per cent Fi per cent Fi 0.5 100 150 200 250 300 350 1.0 1.5 gureI-7 gureI-6 50 DPR Korea 1995 1970-1979 Samoa 1991 15 LDCs Samoa 1990 1980-1989 Vanuatu 1985 LLDCs Mongolia 1996 1990-1999 in the following chapters.in the following regional cooperation –issues that are addressed andrequires remit individualcountry ofeach is thusatask goes that frequently beyond the are transboundary. Managing and reducing risk Many ofthe disasters inAsia and the Pacific Cro SIDS Samoa 1983 ss -bord DPR Korea 2000 2000-2009 Rest ofAsia-Pacific e r thr Cook Islands 1987 LLDCs average:0.52percent LDCs average:0.97percent ea Maldives t 2004 s 2010-2013 Tonga 2001 11

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Box I-2 Cyclone Pam in Vanuatu

Vanuatu, with a population of 264,000 is one of the region’s poorest countries. It is also the country at greatest risk from disasters, being exposed to multiple hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, droughts, floods, landslides, tropical cyclones and sea level rise.

On 13 March 2015, a category 5 tropical cyclone, Pam, struck the capital Port Vila and caused catastrophic damage and losses in Vanuatu’s 22 inhabited islands.16 Although the death toll from the cyclone was not high - 11 casualties − around 166,000 people, 60 per cent of the total population, were affected.17 The cyclone also destroyed up to 17,000 buildings and more than 95 per cent of the agriculture sector, leaving people with no alternative food stocks.18 Moreover, about 60 per cent of the population in Shefa and Tafea provinces had no access to safe drinking water.19 Many pieces of critical infrastructure such as buildings, schools and health facilities reported extensive damage.

Each year, Vanuatu also has thousands of visitors – attracted to its picturesque black sand beaches, secluded jungle waterfalls and spectacular volcanoes. Tourism was also badly affected.20 According to Vanuatu’s President Baldwin Lonsdale, cyclone Pam ‘set back the country’s development by years.’ ESCAP Photo ESCAP

12 Seismic riskinAsiaandthePacific agreed upon by Indiaand Pakistan. The final status of Jammu Kashmir has not and yet beenagreed upon by the parties. acceptance by the UnitedNations; represents Dottedline(in gray) approximately the LineofControl inJammu andKashmir :Disclaimer or andnamesshown officialendorsement andthedesignationsThe boundaries used on thismap do notimply reliefweb.int/files/resources/map_613.pdf. :Source Based on Asia-Pacific:Scale, Risk –Modified Mercalli Earthquake OCHA, 2014. Available from http://reliefweb.int/sites/ Indonesia. most populousare Japan, and the Philippines lines threaten many countries, the ofwhich associated tsunamis.the potential for These fault 90 percentoftheworld’s earthquakes, with where tectonic platemovements create around risk isinthe The highest Pacific Fire’, ‘Ring of and cross many national I-8). borders (Figure thousandsofkilometres stretch for – which activeworld’s faultlines two mostseismically earthquakes. The Asia-Pacific region hasthe disasteris oftransboundary A majorform andtsunamis Earthquakes Fi gureI-8 21 The region’s second most seismically Islamic Republic ofIran. in and led tothe 2013and2014 earthquakes Republic ofIran, Pakistan – andAfghanistan line, Shift, theSeismic threatens theIslamic largest tsunami in recorded history. Another fault and the Indian Ocean tsunami,earthquake the Fault. In 2004thisgenerated a9.3magnitude active is the GreatAnother highly zone Sumatran China, India and Myanmar (Box I-3). itsneighbours,and affected Bangladesh, including Nepal that devastated of earthquakes the series belt. and May to In April 2015thisgave rise active istheAlpine-Himalayan orogenic zone 13

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Box I-3 Nepal earthquakes, 2015

On 25 April 2015, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal with its epicentre in the district of Dolakha, east of Kathmandu. This was followed by more than 300 aftershocks with magnitudes greater than 4.0, including one 17 days later of magnitude 6.8.

The effects were also felt in neighbouring countries including China, India and Bangladesh. In India, towns bordering Nepal saw more than 70 deaths and 260 injuries. In the Tibet autonomous region in China 27 people died. In Bangladesh, 18 districts were affected, with four deaths and more than 200 injured.22

But by far the most devastating impacts were in central and western regions of Nepal. There were 8,790 casualties and 22,300 injuries, with more than eight million people, one-third of the population, affected. Over half a million houses were destroyed and more than 250,000 were partially damaged. In some areas, entire settlements were swept away by landslides and avalanches, and these ruptured, destabilized landscapes also increased the risk of flooding.

The disaster had severe economic impacts. Damage and losses were equivalent to around one-third of the GDP for 2013-2014 − and equivalent to more than 100 per cent of gross fixed capital formation. Productive sectors including tourism, agriculture and commerce saw damage and losses of more than $1.78 billion, the majority of which were for private enterprises.23 GDP growth for 2015, previously forecast at 4.6 per cent will probably drop to 3 per cent. The earthquakes may end up pushing an additional 2.5 to 3.5 per cent of Nepalese, around 700,000 people, into poverty in 2015.

There was also heavy damage to public infrastructure: more than 1,200 health facilities, and 7,000 schools were completely destroyed or partially damaged. Just before the earthquakes, Nepal met all the criteria for graduation from LDC status, possibly by 2022, but this is now less likely.24

Tropical cyclones Transboundary floods

On average globally there are 86 tropical cyclones Across Asia and the Pacific each year there each year. Of these, 50 to 60 arise in three are large numbers of small-scale floods, often Asia-Pacific ocean basins whose coastlines are seasonal, and in many respects beneficial. But shared by multiple countries (Figure I-9).25 A there is also the risk of catastrophic flooding. In single cyclone can travel across many countries, the last decade there have been major floods in causing heavy rainfall and flooding, until it finally China, India, Pakistan and Thailand. In 2014, makes landfall. Typhoon Kalmaeki of 2014, for there were 52 recorded floods that claimed example, affected Viet Nam, the Philippines 3,559 lives.26 and China.

14 Asia-Pacific oceanbasins,andthetracksoftropicalcyclones2005-2014 significant damage not only in China but also inChina but damagealso not significant only the damtoburst two months later, leading to melt continuedcausing toflow intothelake in Nyingchi, Lake Yigong China. and ice Snow example, alandslide dammed the outlet of the is snowmelt inhighmountains. In2000, for floods Another majorsource oftransboundary India andPakistan. ofdamage to$18billion worth in contributed in the Chenab, Indus, Jhelum, basins andRavi Asia:in South in2014, floods transboundary Viet Nam.Thailand and There risks are similar People’sLao Republic, Democratic Myanmar, –Cambodia, up to six countries affect China, San, Pok. andSre inthisbasincan Flooding Bang Hieng, Done, Se Mun-Chi, Kong, Se Se Nam Theun, Nam Hinboun,Se Bang Fai, Se from many rivers, the Nam Ngum, including The Mekong basin,for example, receives water Mekong, Salween, and Yenisey 1-10). (Figure Darya, Amur, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, that share astheAmu such basinsofrivers –flowing across countriestransboundary of these large-scale floods areSome (Accessed August 2015). :Source ESCAP basedon datafrom the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(US). Available from http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/. c) * * b) * a) Fi gureI-9 surrounding countries/states: Australia, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Islands and Solomon Vanuatu surrounding countries/states: Peninsula, Arabian Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia, and Lanka Sri Thailand Philippines, RepublicofKorea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Viet Nam Thailand and surrounding countries/states: Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, China, Korea, DPR Guam, Japan, PDR, Lao Malaysia, Palau, a) Western NorthPacificOcean & SouthChinaSea 27 b) BayofBengalandthe Arabian Sea

31 volcanic eruptions around eruptions 31 volcanic the world. 1950,Since each year there have beenon average Volcanic eruptions given available information. Nepal alone hasidentified24GLOFevents release vastquantitiesof water. suddenly can unstableand are lakeswhich meltwater often Here, astheglaciers recede create they large Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Kush Himalayas region, example, for covers floods(GLOFs).lake outburst The Hindu- Mountainous regions toglacial also give rise can 50,000 homeless. in Indiawhere 30peopleandmade itkilled in Indonesia, and Japan. the Philippines exposed are inAsia andthePacific – notably active butthe largest volcano numbers ofpeople live within 100 in kilometres86 countries of an led tothe evacuation ofaround 1,000people. River damaged which 127Kargalinka homes and along to aGLOF2015 gave the rise inAlmaty Tajikistan. aheatwave in And inKazakhstan inPakistan recently and also beenobserved 28

c) South-West PacificOcean 29 GLOFs have 31 People 32 30

15

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure I-10 Transboundary flood risk in Asia and the Pacific

Source: Based on Asia-Pacific: Flood Risk, OCHA, 2014. Available from http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/map_616. pdf, with river basin data from ICIMOD. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations; Dotted line (in black) represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.

Volcanoes can result in pyroclastic flows, ash many lives were saved as a result of effective and tephra, debris avalanches, landslides, and monitoring and forecasting and timely evacuation emissions of volcanic gases and sulphuric organized by the disaster management authorities. acid aerosols. These can cause serious health In 2015, the eruption of Mount Sinabung in problems, soil and water contamination, and North Sumatra, Indonesia was also forecast in crop failure and may also disrupt aviation. Many a timely manner, allowing many villagers to of these impacts are transboundary, particularly be evacuated. Similarly in Japan in May 2015, atmospheric pollution. more than 100 people were evacuated after a volcano erupted on the tiny southern island of In 1991 the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in Kuchinoerabu.34 Such measures have, over the the Philippines killed 680 people and caused last century, saved an estimated 50,000 lives damage to crops, infrastructure and personal across the world. However there are still many property of around $374 million.33 Nevertheless, unmonitored ‘high-exposure’ volcanoes.35

16 Transboundary droughtriskinAsiaandthePacific :Source GRID-NAIROBI OfEast Anglia’s andUniversity Climate Research Unit. Niño event, in Asia and the Pacific 11 countries between 1997and1998, asevere El during few years: East AsiaandthePacific every in Niño events,South- in countries affect which variations. can bedue,These for example, to El duetoseasonal periods impact of prolonged dry the alsofeel countries Many neighbouring upstream inanothercountry. originate can Water resources used by one or more countries that are cross-border frequently I-11). (Figure Droughts are produced conditions by climatic Droughts Fi gureI-11 2 of this report. issue isconsidered ingreater detail inChapter Asia,and Central ChinaandAustralia. This andSouth-West− asinSouth Asia, North areas,hyper-arid exposedtohighdrought risk Pacific region alsohasmany semi-arid, or arid hydrology andextentofsnowmelt. The Asia- Asia drought conditions are affected by snow Asia.well asSouth-East andCentral In North andSouth-West inSouth countries Asiaas affects often which drought is monsoon variability million people. were affected by drought, impacting around 7.5 36 Another source ofcross-border

17

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Economies at risk sectors – and in some cases 80 per cent. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable. In Lao Though the immediate concern from disasters People’s Democratic Republic in 2009, for must be from the threats to human life and example, typhoon Ketsana led to the inundation health, countries across Asia and the Pacific are of 28,500 hectares of crop planted areas. This also concerned about the economic cost – which further threatened food security since the five appears to be increasing. Between the 1970s and affected provinces were responsible for about half the decade 2005-2014 damage to property, crops of domestic rice production. Many farmers lost and livestock increased from $52 billion to over their livelihoods.39 Similarly in Pakistan following $523 billion (Figure I-12).37 The damage has 2011 floods, damage and losses in agriculture also been increasing as a proportion of GDP, sector amounted to $1.84 billion, and a total from 0.16 per cent in the 1970s to 0.34 per of about 881,000 hectare or 53 per cent of the cent in the decade of 2005-2014.38 If “losses” planted land was affected.40 in terms of lost income and increased cost of production due to above damage to assets are While all subregions have suffered, more than counted, then the total economic costs would half the economic damage has been in East and be much higher. North-East Asia (Figure I-14). Moreover, these data are likely to be serious underestimates since Most of the economic impact is the result of they may not fully allow for the subsequent damage and losses to the housing, transport disruption of livelihoods and economic activities − and agriculture sectors. As indicated in Figure which can account for close to half of the total I-13, for some recent disasters more than cost. The recent Nepal earthquake recorded such half the economic impacts were felt in these losses, amounting to 40 per cent of the total.41 Figure I-12 Damage from natural disasters rising, 1970-2014

300 Japan: Great East Japan Earthquake

250 United States: Katrina Storm 200 Japan: Kobe Earthquake China: Sichuan Earthquake Turkey: 150 Earthquake China: China: Floods Algeria: Drought 100 El Asnam Iran: Manjil-Rudbar Earthquake Earthquake

Billions of 2005 US dollars 50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Asia-Pacific Rest of the world

Source: ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. emdat.be/ (Accessed April 2015). Notes: Labels in the figure show major disasters that contributed to high damage and loss in selected years.

18 Occurrence Annual averagedamagefromnaturaldisastersbysubregion,1970-2014 Sectoral damageandlossesindisaster-hitcountries,percentoftotal emdat.be/ (Accessed 2015). April :Source ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Available from http://www. :Source ESCAP based on Post each event. Disaster for Needs Assessment Reports diversified economic structures, andthosethat economies small for that do not have well account thelong-term costs–particularly Damage and loss assessments fail to take into Fi Fi gureI-14 gureI-13

Billions of 2005 US dollars per cent 100 10 15 20 40 60 80 5 Earthquakes Nepal 2015 1970-1979 Others North-East Asia East and Vanuatu Cyclone Tropical $26.2 billion 2015 $26.6 billion Cross-sectoral $47.1 Solomon billion Islands Floods Flash 2014 Cylone Evan 2012 South-East Asia Fiji 1980-1989 Samoa Cylone Evan 2012 Other productivesectors Pakistan Floods 2011 Thailand South-West Asia Floods 2011 1990-1999 South and decades later.decades impacts even detrimental found 6,700 cyclones face macroeconomic instability. Arecent studyof saw a reduction in long-term GDP of almost saw areduction inlong-term GDPofalmost Lao PDR Typhoon Haima 2011 Tourism Pakistan Floods 2010 Cambodia Typhoon Ketsana 42 2009 Agriculture Agriculture Central Asia eventThe largest in the sample North and 2000-2009 Earthquake Indonesia 2009 Tsunami Samoa Transport 2009 Philippines Typhoon 2009 Pacific 2010-2014 Housing Average 19

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

30 per cent. Others, depending on the scale and Figure I-15 frequency of the disaster, were in the range of SMEs in the Philippines located in areas of 7 to 15 per cent. In the Pacific SIDS, after high typhoon frequency major cyclones the GDP per capita was likely to lag behind the ‘no disaster’ counterfactual for many years. The damage may be reflected in depressed GDP for a long period, when a country is hit by a series of disasters. Pakistan, for example, was hit by a major earthquake in 2005, followed in 2007 by cyclone Yemin and subsequent flooding, and was unable to return to its long-term GDP trend.43

Small and medium enterprises

In most Asia-Pacific economies small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ over half the labour force and contribute to 20 to 50 per cent of GDP.44 These enterprises are often vulnerable, particularly those in the informal sector. Typically, the latter are located in more hazardous and exposed areas, such as urban slums, cannot afford adequate risk assessments, and have limited access to insurance.45

In the Philippines, for example, 90 per cent of firms are microenterprises of which most are Source: Ballesteros and Domingo, 2015. informal. More than 60 per cent are concentrated Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations in high-risk disaster areas: the National Capital used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance Region, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Central by the United Nations. Visayas and Western Visayas (Figure I-15).46 When typhoon Ondoy struck in 2009, SMEs Global repercussions were hit the hardest.47 Small firms and home- based enterprises had to close down due to flood Given the significance of Asia and the Pacific damage. Similar experiences were recorded in in the global economy, the impact of major 2012 when typhoon Pablo hit the provinces of disasters in this region can soon reverberate Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley. Owners around the world. The Japan earthquake of 2011, of beach resorts, small stores, lodging houses, for example, affected global commodity prices machine and equipment rental companies, as (Box I-4). In New Zealand a major drought well as tour guides together suffered a total in 2013 led to an increase in the world price 49 loss of around $700,000.48 of milk powder (Figure I-16).

20 :Source ESCAP basedon data from Global Dairy Trade. Available from https://www.globaldairytrade.info/. (Accessed May 2015). * GDT =Global Dairy Trade A droughtinNewZealand2013ledtohigher worldpricesformilkpowder Fi gureI-16 Impact of2011Japanearthquakeonglobalmarketsandprices of theFukushimaincident.InUK,forexample,localelectricitypricesroseby2percent. anticipated Japaneseindustriestolowerdemandforoil.Energyprices,ontheotherhandrosebecause to fund recovery projects, investors rushed tobuy the yen,Global oil prices dropped because markets big dropsinthemajorAsia-Pacificstockmarkets.InanticipationofGovernmentrepatriatingyen The disaster also caused fluctuations in global equity markets. On the day of the disaster there were Information,Financial andInteractive DataReal-Time Services. :Source dataobtained from sources: various Historical CapitalIQ, Financial ThomsonNetwork, Inc, Morningstar SIX the next three days the Nikkei Index fell by 17.5 per cent, or by close to $460 billion (in 2011 US dollars). affected Japaneseproductionactivities,especiallytheautomobileandsemiconductorindustries.Over The earthquakeinJapanMarch2011closedtheFukushimaDaiichinuclearpowerplant.Thisturn B oxI-4 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 600 800 1-May-12 10000 10500 11000 8500 9000 9500 1-Feb-11 Volatility ofJapaneseNikkei225Index,FebruarytoMarch2011 1-Aug-12 General GDTPriceIndex* Whole MilkPowder Butter 15-Feb-11 1-Nov-12 1-Mar-11 1-Feb-13 Nikki 225 15-Mar-11 Earthquake G7 Intervention 1-May-13 29-Mar-11 1-Aug-13 12-Apr-11 26-Apr-11 1-Nov-13 50 21

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Disasters in Asia and the Pacific can also hit There was a similar outcome as a result of the the global economy by disrupting production floods in Thailand in 2011. Firms in Thailand networks. Many enterprises in the region are tend to cluster in a small number of industrial key links in regional and global supply chains. locations many of which were severely inundated In Japan, for example, following the 2011 – leading to chain disruptions not only in earthquake, most of the 337 private firms that Thailand but across the region. Nissan and had to close down were outside the tsunami- Toyota, whose own automobile plants were not affected areas − and of these 90 per cent physically damaged, had to suspend production 51 because essential parts were not arriving in went bankrupt within six months. Japanese 54 automobile production was almost halved and time. These indirect effects spread globally, as Toyota’s production lines in Malaysia, Viet electrical component production fell by 8.25 52 Nam, Pakistan, the Philippines, United States per cent. The knock-on effect was also felt and Canada had to make up for output loss in in neighbouring countries. Three months after Thailand. In addition, computer manufacturers the disaster, due to shortages in components outside Thailand experienced serious supply automobile production dropped by 20 per cent in shortage and rising prices of computer hard Thailand and by 24 per cent in the Philippines, 53 drives, as major manufactures of its components and in Indonesia by 6 per cent. were clustered in the affected areas.55 ESCAP Photo ESCAP

22 much of which has multi-hazard disaster risk much hasmulti-hazard ofwhich disasterrisk severe impact on the region’s infrastructure, Disasters inAsiaandthePacifica can have exposed Infrastructure Risks totransboundarytransportnetworks transactions ofgoodsandserviceswerealsodisruptedin2015bytheNepalearthquakes. taking alternativeroutesfacedsignificantlyhighercosts,andconsumerpricesrose.Cross-border completely blockingtheArnikohighway,maintransportroutebetweenNepalandChina.Importers In 2014,heavyrainfallsinNepal,forexample,causedseverelandslidesSindhupalchowkdistrict, III orbelow. 60 percentofroutesinNepal,Kyrgyzstan,Myanmar,CambodiaandPakistanarereportedtobeclass disaster riskareas(boxfigure).Moreovermanyoftheroadsarelowqualityandlessresilient.Over integrated intotheAsianHighwayorTrans-AsianRailway.Partsofthesesystemsareinhigh The Asia-Pacificregionislinkedbyasystemofcross-boundaryhighwaysandrailways,manythem B :Source ESCAP basedon themapfrom UNEP, GRID andESCAP, AsianHighway Database. oxI-5 of critical services. of critical just economic activities butalsotheprovision not disaster −putting atrisk the potential for has been built without careful consideration of (Box I-5). ofthisinfrastructure, Much however, 56 23

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

• Transport – Many transport networks have • Water and sanitation – The floods in Solomon not been built with disaster-resilience in mind. Islands in 2014 damaged around 1,000 shallow, In 2011 in the Lao People’s Democratic unprotected wells and inundated them with Republic, for example, continuous rain in trash. Flood-induced landslides also damaged hilly regions as a result of typhoon Haima dams, pipelines and water tanks as well as caused landslides that blocked national, gravity-fed and rainwater catchment systems. provincial and tertiary road networks.57 This Losses to water and sanitation systems resulted in much higher vehicle operating amounted to $2.2 million in subsequent losses costs and made it difficult to get to markets. in economic productivity – almost three times Emergency repairs also hindered traffic flow the initial infrastructure damage.60 in existing roads, where the increased traffic burden led to longer travel times and reduced Some countries have made significant progress in economic efficiency. Transport impacts, can building resilient infrastructure. Japan, for example, also be transboundary as when they affect prior to the 2011 earthquake and tsunami had part of the Asian Highway or the Trans- reinforced shoreline breakwater structures and Asian Railway networks. these mitigated tsunami damage along the • Energy – The Nepal earthquake in 2015, for coast. Trains in Japan are designed to decelerate example, damaged hydropower facilities as well automatically when they sense earthquakes.61 as power distribution lines and transformers, and caused a drop in power production. It In Sri Lanka after the 2004 Indian Ocean also halted progress on the construction of tsunami, the Government set up the Reconstruc- new facilities.58 tion and Development Agency to coordinate • Telecommunications – In Fiji, in 2012 cyclone efforts to rebuild with more resilient infra- Evan led to electricity faults and blackouts and structure, including a new telecommunications cuts in landline telephone services. Damage network with an early warning system, a data to two critical sites resulted in service failures collection mechanism, and an emergency response in rural regions.59 centre.62 Other countries have also been making their infrastructure more resilient (Table I-3).

Table I-3 Recent investments in disaster-resilient infrastructure

Country Intervention Fiji Flood warning system for the town of Navua Indonesia Strengthening the flood resilience of housing; integrated flood impact protection scheme for the city of Semarang Philippines Building hanging footbridges over rivers to provide access to schools and vital infrastructure during floods Samoa Improving flood forecasting systems for river catchments; strengthening the flood resilience of houses in risky areas Thailand Typhoon forecasts five to seven days in advance to facilitate early harvesting ofcrops

Source: ESCAP based on ADB, 2013.

24 Breakdown ofpredictedannualaveragelossesbytypehazardandsubregion 10 countrieswiththehighestpredictedannualaveragelossesfromdisasters :Source ESCAP based on data from UNISDR, 2015b. :Source ESCAP based on data from UNISDR, 2015b. the annual average loss (AAL). losses. of be estimated in terms These can potentialfutureshould alsobeconsidering benefits of investingrisk indisaster reduction Policymakers contemplating thecostsand losses Estimating future Fi Fi

per cent 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Russian Federation gureI-18 gureI-17 Republic ofKorea North-East East and Asia Wind Philippines Australia North and Greece Central Japan China Asia T India USA sunami Italy

Pacific Earthquake South-West South and Asia 10 Storm Surge 63 South-East By the year By the year Asia 20 ESCAP Total Floods 30 (Figure I-18). (Figure region are expected from floods and earthquakes I-17).(Figure The largest lossesinthe such withof the the ten highest countries losses in theAsia-Pacific region hasseven which billion. Ofthis, 40percentisexpected to be 2030, is predicted AAL globally to be $415 Central Asia,7.0 Central Asia,7.0 Pacific, 7.4 Pacific, 7.4 South-West South-West North and North and Asia, 19.7 South and Asia, 19.7 South and 40 South-East South-East Asia, 20.3 Asia, 20.3 Billions of2012USdollars Billions of2012USdollars 50 Billions of2012USdollars Floods Tsunami Storm Surge Wind Earthquake North-East Asia,104.8 North-East Asia,104.8 60 East and East and 70 25

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Cities at risk For example, the city of Mumbai in India is vulnerable to monsoon rains, yet has done little Asia-Pacific has one of the world’s most rapid to mitigate flood risk. In 2005, the city was hit rates of urbanization. Between 1950 and 2010 by a large monsoon that causes more than 400 the proportion of the population living in urban casualties, as well as heavy damage to buildings areas increased from 20 to 45 per cent, and by and critical infrastructure. 2050 it is expected to reach 64 per cent. More than two billion people currently live in cities64 Around 60 per cent of Asia-Pacific city dwellers, and a further one billion are likely to join the 742 million people, are now at ‘extreme’ to urban population by 2050.65 ‘high’ disaster risk (Figure 1-19).68 For ‘extreme’ hazard risk, the largest number of people are While fast-growing cities create opportunities in megacities. By 2030, the number at ‘high’ they also present problems for disaster risk or ‘extreme’ multi-hazard risk could reach 980 management. Many cities are outgrowing the million.69 capacity of basic services such as roads, water supplies, and sewage disposal systems, and are Many of the rapidly expanding cities are located thus exposing their people, particularly those in in major multi-hazard ‘hotspots’ – areas with slum areas, to many dangers.66 Much of this significant risk from cyclones, earthquakes, is a consequence of poor management which floods and landslides – notably in South and has led to unplanned and chaotic growth with South-West Asia, South-East Asia and East unsafe buildings and poor drainage systems.67 and North-East Asia (Table I-4, Figure I-20). ESCAP Photo ESCAP

26 Asia-Pacific citydwellersexposedtomultiplehazards,2014 Fi per unit area]. rangesrisk index fromThe estimated 1 (low) to 5(extreme). Notes: are ofrisk basedon Categories cumulated ofcyclones, risk earthquakes, floods andlandslidesexpectedannuallosses and UNISDR, 2013. :Source ESCAP basedon population datafrom UN-DESA, 2014, multiple indexfor from hazard andestimatedrisk UNEP Risk Class Moderate Unknown gureI-19 Extreme Medium Multi-hazard hotspots TableI-4 Hotspot areas hazards from UNEP and UNISDR, 2013. :Source ESCAP estimates basedon population datafrom UN-DESA, 2014, multiple index for andestimatedrisk North-East Asia East and South-East Asia South-West Asia South and High Low 8.3 Location People’s RepublicofKorea. Democratic west-central of plains flat the as well Japanese seaboard also contains hotspots, as Yangtze andPearl. The southernandeastern deltas ofChinaincludingthe Yellow River, river major the around concentrated Largely pockets acrossthePhilippinesandIndonesia. up to the RedRiver Delta, Manila andother and Viet Nam,theeastern coastline of Viet Nam Delta in Thailand, Mekong DeltainCambodia The Irrawady Delta in Myanmar, Chao Phraya Himalayan belt. Delta inBangladeshandnorthwardsintothe of BengalintotheGanges-Brahmaputra From theeasterncoastofIndiainBay 50 45.8 100 150 141.3 Population (Millions) 200 Number of cities Number ofcities with people at with peopleat extreme risk 250 64 17 85 Urban areassmallerthan500000 Cities of500000to1million Medium-sized citiesof1to5million Large citiesof5to10million Megacities of10millionormore 271.6 300 millions (estimates) 2014 166 166 extreme risk, extreme risk, 46 People at People at 350 347.9 2030 219 244 66 400 394.6 27

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure I-20 Asia-Pacific cities exposed to multiple hazards

Source: ESCAP based on population data from UN-DESA, 2014, and estimated risk index for multiple hazards from UNEP and UNISDR, 2013. This is not surprising, since many of the same continue to attract people, particularly those looking attributes that expose these locations to disasters for better job opportunities as well as greater also make them attractive for settlements. Coastal access to services such as education and health. areas, for example, which are exposed to hydro- meteorological hazards and tsunamis, also offer Most of the attention for disaster hotspots has critical inputs for industry, including water and been on the megacities.70 Little comprehensive space for shipping and ports. Lowlands that are work has been undertaken in smaller cities, those prone to flooding also offer good access for road, with fewer than five million people – though rail and water transport. And river valleys and these account for 60 per cent of the Asia-Pacific surrounding plains are prone to flooding, but urban population. In fact these smaller cities these same floods deposit sediments and nutrients have greater difficulty in absorbing new entrants that make for rich farming land. Over hundreds because they have fewer links to markets, weaker of years, such advantages led to the creation of infrastructure and local governments, and fewer strategic global business and financial centres financial resources.71 As a consequence they such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, China can be especially vulnerable to disaster events and Tokyo. These and other, newer, magnets will (Box I-6).72 28 day, peoplelivingonmillion lessthan$1.25a Across AsiaandthePacific there are 772 risk. people are livingatmedium or higher disaster recent dataisavailable, over 500million poor fromcountries theAsia-Pacific region where systems. warning out ofrange ofearly In17 banks orremoteriver areas. mayThey alsobe steep slopes, seismic zones, floodplains and in low-value hazard-prone areas, asslums, such disasters. One reason tend to islive that they upon should disaster strike. havethey adequate savingsorassetstodraw in preventive measures orinsurance, norwill P e a whole,asTaclobanistheisland’smaineconomichub. Business activity dropped to less than half the pre-disaster level, with serious implications for Leyte as the casualties. Thousands of families were forced to take shelter in tents strewn along the coastline. Vulnerability ofsmallcities:thecaseTacloban,Philippines listed asmissing. the damagecausedtoairport.Nearly6,300bodieswererecoveredwhileapproximately1,000 million damagedhomes.Thetelecommunicationssystemwaswipedoutandittookthreedaystoclear Around 60percentofbuildingsweredestroyedand30severelydamagedwitharoundone tsunami,” saidtheInteriorSecretary,ManuelRoxas. for help.“Fromtheshoreandmovingakilometreinland,therearenostructuresstanding.Itwaslike corpses litteringthewreckedcityandofdazedsurvivorswanderingstreetsstrewnwithdebris,begging and theassociatedstormsurge,leadingtodeathdestructiononavastscale.Witnessesspokeof On 7November2013,TaclobanwasdirectlyhitbysupertyphoonHaiyan(knownlocallyasYolanda) new peopleinthecityknewlittleofrisk,orhowtopreparerespond. a dangerous place to liveandwas hit bysevere typhoons in 1897and1912. Nevertheless, many ofthe one insevenhadgrassroofs.Historically,locatedatthetipofafunnel-shapedbay,Taclobanbeen Building standardswerepoor–aboutone-thirdofTacloban’shomeshadwoodenexteriorwallsand achieved bytheuncontrolledexpansionofcityontomosthazardouslandnexttoocean. a waveofrapidurbanizationandTacloban’spopulationgrewfrom136,000to221,000.Thiswaspartly Tacloban is the largest city in Leyte island in the Philippines. Between 1990 and 2010, Leyte experienced B o 74 75 oxI-6 p and they are particularly vulnerable to to vulnerable are andthey particularly The poorest the lack resources to invest l e

a t ri s 73 ThecapacityoftheTaclobanauthorityitselfwasdecimatedaskeystaffwereamong k 76

primary enrolment rates. primary and recurrent that small-scale disasters reduced conducted in Nepal Nam andrevealed Viet is drought. factor to impoverishment contributing important Andhra Pradesh,In rural India, the single most people −orpushthe ‘near-poor’ intopoverty. impoverish to further Disasters are thuslikely to reduce theirfinancial burden. cut theirconsumption ofessentialnutrients theirchildren or pull outofschool poor can income-generating assets. In extreme cases, the reducing consumption their food off or selling astakinghigh-interest such loans,strategies to resort As aresult often they ‘erosive’ coping into poverty by more sudden disasters.into poverty This was 79 But people can also be pushed also bepushed Butpeoplecan 78 77 Astudy 29

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

one consequence of the Sichuan Earthquake 2015 earthquakes in Nepal, older people were the in 2008. Before the earthquake, 4 per cent of most at risk because they were not sufficiently the province’s population were covered under mobile to gain access to essential items.82 Those the ‘basic provision protection’, which provides with disabilities are also at risk since inaccessible subsidies to households with incomes below physical infrastructure and information prevent a certain threshold. Following the earthquake, them from effectively evacuating to emergency however, the proportion rose to 6 per cent, shelters − and as a result their mortality rates where it stayed five years after the disaster.80 during disasters may be two to four times higher than the average (Box I-7). Indigenous people Among the poor, the most vulnerable to natural too are likely to be exposed since they rely disasters are women, children, older persons, heavily on natural resources, so are likely to be persons with disabilities and migrants. Following displaced by natural disasters.83 Moreover, after the Indian Ocean tsunami, for example, 70 per a disaster children and older people are more cent of those who died were women.81 After the susceptible to post traumatic stress disorder.84

Box I-7 Towards disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction

One in every six people in Asia and the Pacific has some form of disability − 650 million women, men and children − numbers that are set to increase due to multiple factors including population ageing.85 Disasters themselves are a common cause of physical, sensory, and psychosocial impairment. In addition, persons with existing disabilities face a wide range of barriers to survive, with many current disaster risk reduction measures inaccessible for them. As a result, their mortality rates during disasters are two to four times higher than that of those without disabilities.86

For example, deaf persons may not receive early warning signals, as they are often transmitted only through audible means. Similarly, wheelchair users struggle to access evacuation routes, emergency shelters, temporary housing units, and bathrooms, during times of disaster. Persons with intellectual disabilities and psychosocial disabilities may be left isolated without sufficient communication support. In addition, there can be discrimination in the distribution of emergency aid and assistance on the basis of disability.87

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction promotes the involvement of persons with disabilities, and points to the importance of inclusive, risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by disseminating knowledge and information in accessible formats and easy-to-understand language. The framework also calls for disability-disaggregated disaster statistics.

In Asia and the Pacific, the Incheon Strategy to “Make the Right Real” for Persons with Disabilities in Asia and the Pacific, the guiding document for the Asian and Pacific Decade of Persons with Disabilities, 2013-2022, promotes disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction in its seventh goal.

30 :Source ESCAP based on data from IDMC, 2014. :Source ESCAP based on data from IDMC, 2014. displacement. region ofdisaster-induced face thehighest risk to multiple hazards, inthe Asia-Pacific countries large people exposed numbers of vulnerable With Displaced bydisasters were in Asia and the Pacific of whom 57 I-21).disasters (Figure Ofthese134million around peoplewere 165million displaced by Displacement inAsiaandthePacificbysubregion,2008-2013 Displacement bynaturaldisastersregion,2008-2013 Fi Fi gureI-22 gureI-21 88 Between 2008 and2013, globally NorthAmerica Millions 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Millions 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 North-East East and Asia 57.1 Europe 2009 South-West South and WestAsia 47.1 Asia 2010 South-East Asia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 29.8 permanent housing (Boxpermanent I-8). six months laterhalfof these were not in still (‘Yolanda’) displaced 4.1million people andeven the Philippines, example, for Haiyan typhoon weeks, years. several othersfor In2013, in I-22). or have days beendisplaced Some for and 30million were Asia(Figure inSouth-East andSouth-West weremillion inSouth Asia million were Asia, inEast and North-East 47 2011 Pacific 0.3 2012 Africa Central Asia North and 0.2 2013 Asia-Pacific 89 89

31

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Box I-8 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines on 8 November 2013, was one of the strongest typhoons ever recorded in the region. It caused tremendous economic damage and losses affecting close to 14.1 million people and also displaced 4.1 million. Of these only 2.5 per cent took shelter in the evacuation centres, most sought refuge with friends and relatives, others created informal settlement and tent cities and went later to transitional bunkhouses.90

Typhoon Haiyan displacement, Philippines 2013

Displaced people as a proportion of Displaced people in dipersed the total affected people settings and evacuation centres 2.5%

Displaced, 4.1 million, 25% Not displaced, 12 million, 75%

97.5%

Population in dispersed settings Population in evacuation centres

Source: ESCAP based on Philippines, NDRRMC, 2014.

Most people returned to their homes, or close to their homes, within hours, days or weeks of the storm passing. But those who returned early generally lived in precarious conditions, in damaged homes or in makeshift shelters or temporary sites in the devastated areas. Six months later over two million people were still in inadequate shelters.91 Over 26,000 people were estimated to be living in temporary or transitional collective displacement sites, and another 200,000 people were awaiting government clearance to enter disaster-affected areas.92 As of October 2014, one year after the disaster, 95,000 households, representing 475,000 people, were still living in unsafe shelters. More than 300 people were still in evacuation centres, 4,760 in tents, and close to 20,000 in transitional sites or bunkhouses.93

Displacement further impoverishes people and Social protection reduces their access to education and health services − and potentially exposes them to One source of defence for the most vulnerable human rights abuses. It also dislocates family against disasters would be stronger systems of and community structures.94 In the aftermath social protection.95 At present across Asia and of typhoon Haiyan, for example, many families the Pacific these are limited − 60 per cent split up to seek work in other places. of the population are not covered by social

32 on short-term emergency relief. emergency on short-term by ad-hoc resources external mainly that focus netsfinanced are safety andfragmented small 28 addressed disasterresilience. Typically they Asia,in South example, for thatonly indicated A study of 124 social protection programmes disasters. ofnatural take intoaccount therisks Allocation ofinternationalaidfordisastersinAsiaandthePacific,2004-2013 are emerging. However, some inthelastdecade good practices protection. protection measures. also address social some ofthegapsformal microfinance andmicro-insurance schemes, could as such financial measuresOther andinstruments ‘chars’ from that suffer recurrent floods and erosion. poor to householdsextremely living on island river over one million people by providing asset grants programme aimstoimprove thelivelihoods of socialprotectionintegrating withdisasters. The ofthepoorest ofthepoorby the vulnerability programme, example, for addressed has successfully Fi and conflicts. Notes: disastersrefers International aidfor to aid’‘humanitarian ofODA, category disasters both natural aidfor andincludes (Accessed June 2015). :Source ESCAP basedon OECD, creditor system. reporting Available from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CRS1.

Billions of 2013 US dollars gureI-23 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2004 Disaster PreventionandPreparedness 96 Nor domostsocialprogrammes 98 Bangladesh’s CharsLivelihood 2005 2006 97

2007 Reconstruction, Relief&Rehabilitation 2008 consequence may reinforce existing inequalities. may have − and as a the wrong priorities Even response, for however, fundingallocations I-23). (Figure prevention for and preparedness hasbeenrising prevention andpreparedness. However, theshare disaster for $2.9 billion was allocated Only reconstruction,was for relief and rehabilitation. response, emergency was for and$6.8billion disasters.billion wasfor Of this, $18.2billion the Pacific $27.8 was$438 billion −of which from the international community toAsiaand total official development assistance(ODA) than prevention. 2004-2013, theperiod Over responseemergency and rehabilitation rather disasters isfor Most international assistance for assistanceInternational funds were directed towards mainly landowners, example, that the reconstruction itwasreported Following inPakistan, amajorearthquake for 2009 2010 2011 Emergency Response 2012 2013 99 99 33

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

large infrastructure projects, industry, or Many ecosystem goods and services provide developers.100 Similarly, after the 2015 earthquake critical protection from natural hazards (Table in Nepal, it was reported that many vulnerable I-5). In mountainous areas, for example, groups including women, disadvantaged vegetation cover and root structures bind the communities, indigenous people, and people soil together − protecting against erosion and with disabilities, had greater difficulty getting making slopes more stable, thus helping to urgently needed relief.101 When donor pledges prevent landslides. In coastal areas and inland do not materialize into actual disbursement, river basins, healthy peatlands, wet grasslands it adds another layer of hardship in disaster and other wetlands reduce water run-off after management. heavy rainfall or snowmelt, and help control floods. Also in coastal environments, tidal flats, deltas and estuaries absorb water from upland Environment at risk areas and serve as buffers against storm surges and tidal waves. In addition, coral reefs, sea One of the best sources of resilience to natural grasses, sand dunes and coastal vegetation such disasters is a healthy natural environment with as mangroves can effectively reduce wave heights robust ecosystems. Unfortunately, much of this and limit erosion from storms and high tides.102 protection has been weakened by human-induced In India in 1999, for example, coastal mangrove environmental degradation. Disasters can then ecosystems reduced the impact of cyclone in further damage the environment, raising the Odisha (formerly Orissa) (Box I-9).103 prospect of a downward spiral.

Box I-9 Mangrove ecosystems reduce loss of life and damage from cyclones

India’s second-largest mainland mangrove forest is the Bhitarkanika Conservation Area in the eastern state of Odisha (formerly Orissa), which harbours the highest diversity of Indian mangrove flora and fauna. In October 1999 a cyclone hit the coast of Odisha affecting around 20 million people and causing 15,000 deaths.104 This was a category 5 cyclone, with a wind speed of more than 300 kilometres per hour and a storm surge of up to 10 metres.105

A study was undertaken to determine the storm protection function performed by the Bhitarkanika mangrove ecosystem.106 This looked at the impact on three villages located the same distance from the coast. One was protected by mangroves, one had an embankment on its seaward side, while the other had no protection at all. The village protected by mangrove suffered losses of $33 per household, while in the village with no protection the losses were $44. The greatest loss, $154 per household, was in the village surrounded by the embankment which was breached and slowed the draining of flood water, increasing the damage to crops. Embankments near the mangrove forest were not breached while those further away were breached in a number of places, implying that mangroves protected these defences. The local people appreciated the functions performed by the mangrove forests and were willing to cooperate with the forest department in mangrove restoration.

This result matched the outcome of a study of 409 villages in Kendrapada district where the presence of wider mangrove belts reduced deaths compared to villages with narrow or no mangroves.107

34 Ecosystems helpmitigatedisasterhazards TableI-5 :Source PEDRR, 2010. Drylands and sanddunes) reefs, barrierislands, saltmarshes, coral (mangroves, Coastal ecosystems floodplains Wetland, vegetation onhillsides Mountain forests, • Prescribed burning and creation of physical firebreaks in dry landscapes reduce reduce landscapes dry in firebreaks physical of creation and burning Prescribed • such practices agricultural and areas, dryland in cover vegetation Maintaining against • barriers as act fences living of types other and greenbelts Shelterbelts, • ameliorate helps drylands in restoration and management vegetation Natural • communities) plant associated (with dunes sand as such barriers natural Non-porous • level sea (slow) to adapt and intrusion saltwater against buffer wetlands Coastal • absorb saltmarshes and mangroves as such wetlands coastal and reefs Coral • other and flooding surges, storm hurricanes, against protect ecosystems Coastal speed and • theheight reduce estuaries and deltas flats, tidal wetlands, Coastal • drought during slowly flows wet-season release floodplains and lakes Marshes, • slowly, it release and water store wetlands other and grasslands wet Peatlands, • and basins river inland areas, incoastal floods control floodplains and Wetlands • drought purification, and recharge water for important are watersheds on Forests • increasing by floods of risk reduce forests, primary especially forests Catchment • avalanches. of risk the reducing snow, stabilize and fall rock against protect Forests • slope increase and erosion against protect structures root and cover Vegetation • ul od ad h rs o uwne lresae fires. large-scale unwanted of risk the and loads fuel resilience todrought. as use of shadow crops,nutrient-enriching plants and vegetation litter increase wind erosionandsandstorms. shrubs and grasses trees, as desertification, control conserve soilandretainmoisture. and drought of effects the currents, stormsurgesandtsunamis. and barrier islands dissipate wave energy andact as barriers against waves, rise bytrappingsedimentandorganicmatter. storms andhightides. (low-magnitude) wave energy, reduce waveheightsand reduce erosion from dunes/coastal wetlands/coastalforestsisparticularlyeffective. coastal hazards–combinedprotectionbycoralreefs,seagrassbedsandsand of stormsurgesandtidalwaves. periods. springtime. reducing thespeedandvolumeofrun-off afterheavyrainfallorsnowmeltin mountain areassubjecttoglacialmelt. mitigation andsafeguardingdrinkingwatersupply. saturation. and delaying rainfall of infiltration stability bybindingthesoil,preventinglandslides. 35

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

These benefits are referred to collectively as mountains, agricultural areas, freshwater and ecosystem services. They provide food, fresh coastal and ocean ecosystems − and done so water, timber, soil formation, and nutrient cycling, more rapidly and extensively than in any other while also regulating the climate, controlling similar period in human history.109 This has floods and maintaining water quality. Some steadily reduced the capacity of ecosystems to efforts have been made to estimate the value protect against natural hazards. An indication in financial terms. For example, according to of the extent of the damage is provided by the the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, Food and Agricultural Organization’s Global the flood mitigation services provided by the Land Degradation Information System.110 This Muthurajawela wetlands in Sri Lanka are worth includes two indices − the biophysical status around $5 million per year.108 index and the biophysical degradation index − which when combined give a picture of Ecosystem degradation the overall status of land degradation (Table I-6). They show that in 32 of 34 Asia-Pacific Over the past 50 years, humans have degraded countries, ecosystems are experiencing ‘medium’ the region’s forests, grasslands, deserts, tundra, to ‘strong’ degradation. In addition, in half of

Table I-6 Land degradation classes in Asia and the Pacific, by country

Biophysical status index**

Low High

<25 25-50 50-75 >75

Strong >0.7 - - - - 0.55-0.7 Iran (Islamic Afghanistan Bhutan Japan Rep. of) Armenia Brunei Darussalam

Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Cambodia x* Uzbekistan Bangladesh DPR Korea d e China Georgia India Indonesia n i Kyrgyzstan Malaysia Lao PDR Myanmar Mongolia Nepal Pakistan New Zealand Tajikistan Papua New Guinea

al degradati o Thailand Philippines Turkey Republic of Korea Viet Nam Russian Federation

Sri Lanka

Bi op hysi c Australia 0.5-0.55 - - - Kazakhstan Weak <0.5 - - - - Low status,medium to strong degradation Key: High status, medium to strong degradation Low status, weak degradation Low status, improving High status, stable to improving

Source: ESCAP based on data from FAO, 2011b. *This index considers the overall processes of declining or improving ecosystem services. **This index considers the actual state of the biophysical ecosystem factors (biomass, soil, water and biodiversity) to provide goods and services. 36 frequency, andtiming. For example, inPakistan their magnitude, hazards − affecting of natural the impact exacerbate can Degraded ecosystems people −79 percentof theregion’s population. degraded areas are home to around 3.3billion toprovide goods andservices.capacity These have alow only ecosystems these countries

per cent 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Ecosystem degradationandtheaccumulationofriskinDhaka,Bangladesh single disasterevent. cyclones, floods and droughts, increasing the risks and the danger of exceptionally large impacts in a has increasedby20percent.Thisdepletedenvironmentalbarriersthatcanreducetheimpactsof this periodvegetationcoverhasbeenreducedbymorethanhalfwhilethelandoccupiedurbanareas major changesinlanduseandcover.Satelliteimagesmadebetween20002010showthatover Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is one of the region’s fastest-growing cities. This has resulted in B :Source ESCAP basedon USGSdatabase. 2000 0 oxI-10 Bare Soil Sand Land coverchangeandriskaccumulationinDhakabetween20002014 2005 Swamp Grass 2009 T ree W ater Urban 2014 (Box I-10). andexposure disasters tonatural vulnerability Bangladesh where itisincreasing people’s the risk. evident,This is for example, in Dhaka, time,Over increases degradation steadily such floods and landslides during heavy rainfall. heavy floods andlandslidesduring deforestation to hasincreased the susceptibility 111

37

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Disasters and climate change further degrade At the Third United Nations World Conference weakened ecosystems on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2015 many countries including Bangladesh, Cambodia, A resilient ecosystem can withstand shocks Timor-Leste and the Pacific island States and rebuild itself. But if it is already fragile confirmed their commitment to simultaneously rebuilding may take longer; indeed it may never address disaster risk reduction and climate fully recover. In 2004, for example, wave action change adaptation. But the region as a whole from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami damaged is not well prepared for the complexity of the coral reefs − in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, emerging climate change impacts. These issues Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka − but the will be further discussed at the global climate damage was greatest in reefs that had previously negotiations in December 2015. suffered from destructive fishing practices such as the use of cyanide and dynamite.112 With The complex chain of events involving human more effective management to reduce damage activity, climate change and natural disasters from human activities, most of the coral reefs creates a vicious feedback loop. Breaking this will recover within five to ten years. But those cycle will require more effective management that suffered the most extensive damage may of ecosystems − integrated with measures on take 20 or more years to recover, and even then social protection, disaster risk reduction and may not be fully restored. climate change adaptation. Thus far, however, there has been little cross-fertilization between An additional factor influencing the integrity and these sectors.116 quality of ecosystems is climate change, though the anticipated impacts differ significantly from subregion to subregion and from country to Building greater resilience country − some areas may see more heatwaves, others greater precipitation, others more extensive Investing in disaster risk reduction is cost effective. droughts.113 Globally, disaster risk management strategies can have a four-fold return in terms of mitigating The most significant impacts, however, are likely the impacts of disasters. In Asia and the Pacific to be in coastal areas, with possible risks of sea investments in hydrometeorological early warning level rise, greater storm intensity, higher wind systems, for example, can have returns between speeds, greater wave action and higher sea 4 and 36 times.117 surface temperature. All may exacerbate shoreline erosion.114 In India, for example, in some places Nevertheless, over the last 10 years, countries in shores and beaches are retreating several metres a Asia and the Pacific have not made sufficient year – both through natural processes and human progress in building resilience.118 This can be activity. But the erosion becomes even more severe due to budget constraints, or lack of information when the coast is hit by a cyclone.115 People in or of political will. But there can also be the low-lying island nations of the Pacific are limitations in human perception of risk − myopic already having to relocate inland due to coastal behaviour in gauging unforeseen risks, as well erosion and sea level rise − an indication of as a tendency to overestimate the probability future disasters waiting to unfold. of unlikely events, and underestimate the

38 :Source ESCAP based on UNISDR, 2013e. Asia-Pacific performanceinthefiveHFApriorities foraction,2011-2013 Fi per cent. 0.4 percent ofthegovernment budget to0.7 investment reduction indisaster risk from about and between 2006 and 2012 Indonesia increased probability ofcommonprobability ones. government budget on disaster management, in 2013Mongolia spent1percentofthe reduction. disaster risk for allocations Notably, have increased countries theirbudgetSome planning, programmes andprojects. these intodevelopment policies,to incorporate reduction policies andlegislation, many have yet Although more now have countries disaster risk data,of standardized methodologiesandtools. there and isvulnerability a assessinglack risk (HFA). on such of priorities This setoutaseries Actionfor inAsiaandthePacific 2011-2013 progress oftheHyogo interms Framework evident when considering ofthegapsis The scale there gaps. are significant still warning,early preparedness andresponse, but progress for inbuildinginstitutional capacities spent on response andrecovery. There has been disaster management is inadequate and is mostly 10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8 gureI-24 national andlocalprioritywith a stronginstitutionalbasis Relatively smallachievement Ensure thatDRRisa for implementation Priority foraction1: 122 Generally, however, investment in and enhanceearlywarning monitor disasterrisks Priority foraction2: Identify, assessand 119 Not substantial achievement Not substantialachievement Moreover when Moreover when 120

Use knowledge,innovation resilience atalllevels a cultureofsafetyand and educationtobuild Priority foraction3: 121 121

state inIndia(Box I-11). isthatofGujarat enhance copingcapacities example ofhow tobuildresilience andto are more disasters. tonatural vulnerable One Islands, and Vanuatu, have lesscapacity, so Cambodia, Fiji, thePhilippines, Solomon exposure countries, Bangladesh, including also more resilient. However, mostotherhigh- coping capacities. exposedbutis Japanishighly with high exposuremany countries have limited coverage.insurance I-25, Figure As indicated services,and medical along withtheextentof ofgovernments another isthecopingcapacity of components. Oneisthe degree ofexposure; index. risk its world This indexhasanumber provided by the2014World RiskReport and Another ofthestateprogress indication is ‘not substantial’ or ‘relatively small’ I-24). (Figure However, progress theothercountries for was ‘comprehensive’ or ‘substantial’ achievement. like Bangladesh and the Philippines, reported the countries, high exposure countries including resilience. Based on self-assessments, around half and andbuildingaculture ofsafety systems issues asinstitutional commitment, warning early Substantial achievement Reduce theunderlying Priority foraction4: risk factors Comprehensive achievement Strengthen disaster Priority foraction5: effective response preparedness for at alllevels 39

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure I-25 Exposure and coping capacities in Asia and the Pacific Exposure (%) Coping capacities (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Vanuatu Japan Philippines Australia Japan New Zealand Brunei Darussalam Republic of Korea Bangladesh Singapore Solomon Islands Russian Federation Fiji Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Kazakhstan Timor-Leste Mongolia Viet Nam Georgia Papua New Guinea Malaysia Indonesia Turkey Kyrgyzstan China Uzbekistan Azerbaijan New Zealand Armenia Australia Bhutan Republic of Korea Fiji Myanmar Thailand Bhutan Turkmenistan Sri Lanka Tajikistan Georgia Viet Nam Malaysia Kyrgyzstan Armenia Uzbekistan China Sri Lanka Thailand Philippines Turkmenistan India Afghanistan Nepal Azerbaijan Indonesia Tajikistan Timor-Leste Turkey Vanuatu India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Pakistan Kiribati Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Lao PDR Lao PDR Papua New Guinea Russian Federation Solomon Islands Nepal Bangladesh Kazakhstan Pakistan Singapore Cambodia Mongolia Myanmar Kiribati Afghanistan

Source: ESCAP based on data from Alliance Development Works and UNU-EHS, 2014.

Box I-11 Building resilience in Gujarat, India

On 26 January 2001, Gujarat state in India was struck by a magnitude 7.7 earthquake, which devastated a huge area, including Bhuj, the capital of Kutch district. Around 13,800 people were killed and more than 1.2 million houses were damaged.123 In response, the theme of the Gujarat Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Policy was to ‘Build Back Better’. This established the Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority to implement rehabilitation and reconstruction, as well as activities for disaster preparedness and mitigation. A key result of the programme was disaster-resilient buildings. To achieve this, the government offered economic incentives, including subsidies and tax exemptions. It also offered cash assistance, part of which was disbursed only after the verification of construction quality. Schools, hospitals, community halls, town halls, markets and other public buildings were retrofitted enforcing resilient building codes. Critical physical infrastructure was also redesigned and reconstructed so as to be more resilient. Technical assistance was provided on the statutory requirements and engineers provided guidance to house owners. To underpin the land use plans the government also undertook seismic-microzonation, and implemented awareness raising programmes on hazard resilience technology. The results have been positive. Recent surveys have suggested that people feel that the houses have been adequately engineered to withstand tremors. There have been no subsequent reports of collapsed or severely damaged houses from natural disasters.

40 how ishighlighted as importance. andknow- technology sharing cooperation for reduce andthe impact. boththe risks Regional management ofdrought response soasto until too late. It suggests to reorient the ways other disasterevents, goes unrecognized often which, it develops more because than slowly chapter examinesThis a regular phenomenon, –theforgottenChapter disaster − 2−Drought recommendationspractical andproven solutions. −offering theneedsand opportunities analyse and impacts. of this report chapters Subsequent as many ofthedisasters have cross-border origins the government. Regional cooperation iscritical much of the responsibility rests sharing risk with or transfer have markets well developed risk for business. that donot countries But indeveloping Building resilience todisastersiseveryone’s layerhas added and uncertainty. a further of risk have on environmental buffers. change Climate the consequent impact these interrelated processes growth, population, rising burgeoning cities, and arerisks created, by the region’s economic rapid areExisting risks beingexacerbated, andnew disaster risks, butthere isalotmore todo. region has made good progress in addressing theHyogoSince Framework ofAction the T h e unfini s h e d a g e nd a development activities. ofall part reduction beanintegral risk can resilient. how disaster indicates This chapter to consider how tomakeitsactivities disaster or floodscyclones, sectorneeds soevery beaffected by earthquakes sector can as every tosocialprotection.health totransport Just ofgovernment −from part to education every reductionDisaster risk is a responsibility for Chapter 5 poorest people. the interests of the region’sso as to serve and analysed being produced beorganized can suggests how thevastquantitiesofdatanow in ICT and space applications. This chapter the Pacific can take advantage of many advances management.of effective information Asia and time − issue chapter exploresThis thecritical Chapter 4−Rightinformation, people, right right also points tothe value ofregional cooperation. strengthened soastoreach mile’. the ‘last It should bepeople centred systems and warning thatoccurfrequently.hazards Itargues that for cost effective −especially but are alsovery save notonly lives which systems warning early highlights the benefits of chapter multi-hazard − This Chapter 3− warning early The value of

−

A t the heart of sustainable of t theheart development −

41

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Endnotes

1 United Nations, Open Working Group proposal for 18 Vanuatu, 2015a and UNDP, 2015a. Sustainable Development Goals, A/68/970. 19 OCHA, 2015b. 2 ESCAP, 2013a. 20 Vanuatu, 2015a. 3 ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/ 21 CRED International Disaster Database. (Accessed USGS, 2015. April 2015). 22 Local newspapers from India, China and Bangladesh. 4 Unless noted otherwise, disasters in this report 23 Nepal, 2015. In current US dollars. includes drought, earthquake and tsunami, epidemic, extreme temperature, flood, landslide, mass movement 24 Nepal, 2015. (dry), storm, volcanic activity and wildfire. Fatalities 25 (or deaths) in this report refers to persons confirmed Data source: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. as dead and persons missing and presumed dead as Available from http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ defined by EM-DAT. “Damage” in this report refers (Accessed August 2015). to damage to property, crops, and livestock; “Losses” 26 ESCAP, 2015b. refers to negative impacts in business activities, income generation and increased costs of production 27 ESCAP, 2015b. In current US dollars. caused indirectly as a consequence of damage. Unless 28 noted otherwise, damage in this chapter is in 2005 ICIMOD, 2010. constant US dollars. 29 ICIMOD, 2011. 5 ESCAP, 2013a. 30 Floodlist, 2015. 6 Population living in poverty (2011), $1.25 per day in 31 2005 PPP, ESCAP Statistical Database. (Accessed 5 UNISDR, 2015b. March 2015). 32 UNISDR, 2015b. 7 UNDP, 2015b. 33 De Guzman, Emmanuel M. In current US dollars. 8 Myanmar and others, 2008. 34 The Guardian, 2015b. 9 ESCAP, 2015f. 35 UNISDR, 2015b. 10 Mahr and Sharma, 2015. 36 EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International 11 Samoa, 2013. In current US dollars. Disaster Database. (Accessed April 2015). 37 12 Fiji, 2013. In current US dollars. ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/ CRED International Disaster Database. (Accessed 13 These figures do not include the impacts of Cyclone April 2015).

Pam which struck Vanuatu earlier in 2015 which is 38 outside the period of analysis (Box 1-2). EM-DAT (for damage) and ESCAP Statistical database (for GDP). 14 ESCAP, 2015f. 39 Lao PDR, 2009. 15 Nepal, 2015; Vanuatu, 2015a 40 ADB and World Bank, 2011. In current US dollars 16 Vanuatu, 2015a. 41 Nepal, 2015. 17 EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International 42 Disaster Database. (Accessed April 2015). Hsiang and Jina, 2014.

42 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43

World Bank, 2012a. World Bank, 2010a. UN-DESA, 2014. of 300,000ormore. The term ‘city’ areas tourban withapopulationrefers are notincluded. floods.categories,Other disaster asdroughts, such earthquake,only wind, surge storm tsunamiand return periods. Note thattheAALusedhere includes relating rangeoflossscenarios todifferentthe full considering loss annualisedover a long timeperiod Annual average loss (AAL)istheestimatedaverage Palliyaguru andothers, 2007. PwC, 2013. Islands,Solomon 2014. Incurrent USdollars. Fiji, 2013. Nepal, 2015. PDR,Lao 2011. DPNet, (n.d.) ESCAP, 2013a. Ye andAbe, 2012. Ye andAbe, 2012. Ye andAbe, 2012. Ono, 2014. Guardian,The 2011. New Zealand, 2013. dollars. Ballesteros andDomingo, 2015. Incurrent US andothers,Philippines (n.d.). Ballesteros andDomingo, 2015. ESCAP andADPC, 2014. ESCAP etal., 2015. ESCAP, 2013a. 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76

poverty, indicators theMDG following perday isusedasthethreshold determining (PPP) 2014, and population data from World Bank. $1.25 from Development Alliance Works andUNU-EHS, Data source: Poverty data from UNSD, data risk ESCAP, 2014b. Philippines, NDRRMC, 2014. UN-HABITAT, 2007. UNDP, 2013a. Pelling, 2007. indexfromrisk 1(low) to5(extreme). expected annuallossesperpixel. Unitisestimated cyclones, earthquakes, floodsandlandslides are ofrisk basedonCategories cumulatedof risk hazards. UNEP, 2013. multiple indexfor Globalestimatedrisk Philippines, 2014; OCHA, 2014b. disaster. residence inorder toavoid thethreat orimpact ofa groups ofpeoplefrom theirhomes orregular place of movement, relocation orevacuationofindividuals or orforced Displacement refers toany involuntary UNISDR, 2013f. ESCAP and others, 2014. ESCAP, 2012. andothers,Jia 2010; Hoffman, 2009. HelpAge International, 2013. ESCAP, 2015f. 2005-2014. ESCAP, Yearbook, Statistical basedon Sichuan ODI, 2013. UNISDR, 2011a. World Bank, 2010b; World Bank, 2013b. Del Ninno andothers, 2001. World Bank, 2015b. 43

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

90 Philippines, NDRRMC, 2014. 107 Das and Vincent, 2009.

91 OCHA, 2014b. 108 UNU, 2013.

92 Philippines and others, 2014. 109 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005.

93 OCHA, 2014a. 110 FAO, 2011b.

94 UNISDR, 2015b. 111 IUCN, 2006.

95 ESCAP, 2013b. 112 Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 2006.

96 ESCAP, 2014b. 113 IPCC, 2012.

97 Davies and others, 2013. 114 IPCC, 2014.

98 World Bank, 2013a. 115 Mimura, 2013.

99 World Bank, 2015b. 116 World Bank, 2011b.

100 Refugees International, 2010. 117 Hallegatte, 2012.

101 Amnesty International, 2015. 118 UNISDR, 2015b

102 UNU, 2013. 119 ESCAP, 2013a.

103 UNEP, 2014. 120 UNISDR, 2013e.

104 Venkataramakrishnan, 2014. 121 Mongolia, 2015.

105 Nayak, 2009. 122 Darwanto, 2012.

106 Badola and Hussain, 2005. 123 India, GSDMA, 2002.

44 45

CHAPTER 1 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

46 adhyay So m e n ath u kho p adhyay Photo/M UN 2 disaster the forgotten Drought − 47

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

CHAPTER 2 Drought − the forgotten disaster

“Before when we planted corn, it rained regularly. Now, there isn’t enough rain so we have to water and so it costs more money.”

Farmer, Dak Lak, Viet Nam1

Drought is one of the region’s most devastating natural disasters. But it is a slow and silent killer, and therefore often forgotten. Compared with earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons and floods, drought is a gradual phenomenon − and the devastation it causes is indirect, by steadily reducing supplies of water and food. Combatting drought requires constant vigilance, combining high-tech monitoring with local information and knowledge − and determined efforts to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

In the early part of the 20th century, millions recorded and receive less attention from the of people in Asia and the Pacific died from media, policymakers and politicians. drought and billions more were affected. Since 1970, across Asia and the Pacific drought has Drought has significant impacts on many claimed far fewer lives at 5,700 people, but sectors, including fish and aquaculture, forestry, has still affected more than 1.6 billion people and industry. This chapter focuses, however, on and cost more than $53 billion in damage.2 agricultural drought − when there is not enough But these are likely to be underestimates. The soil moisture to support crop production or impacts of drought are difficult to delineate: a fodder for livestock. Asia and the Pacific is a drought can reach over vast areas of land, often very diverse region, and each country experiences crossing country borders. It can also be hard agricultural drought in different ways. In general to determine when it starts and finishes, and however, there are four main types of drought: since the damage is indirect it is thus difficult • Prolonged periods of low rainfall − Less than to capture the full costs. the long-term average rainfall. This is prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions and countries In Asia and the Pacific drought can take such as Australia, India, parts of China, the on distinctive forms. Elsewhere in the world, Islamic Republic of Iran, and countries of drought is typically experienced as a long period Central Asia, though also in some small of low rainfall, resulting in dry, cracked earth, island developing States. severe crop loss, dying livestock and famine. • Irregularities in the monsoon season − A late Asia and the Pacific has similar disasters but it start or early finish to the monsoon period, also has different, shorter forms − during severe or a dry spell at a key time of the monsoon winters, for example, or even during monsoons. cropping season. This can have a devastating For these reasons, and because drought appears impact on agriculture. Most countries of South less dramatic, the impacts are generally not well and South-East Asia are affected by this type

48 of drought by isabsorbed agriculture. of the economicAround impact four-fifths middle-income countries it was 50 per cent. countries middle-income The was 12per cent,countries butinthelow and andhigh-income total employment inmiddle- employment in agriculture as a proportion of on agriculture their for livelihoods. In 2014, heavily rely −still in thepoorest countries the Pacific where many people−particularly significance inAsiaandthus ofparticular flooding in one anddrought in another. different regions atthesametime, as such multiple disastersin experience can countries winter with below average precipitation. Likewise, an unpredictable monsoon season followed by a of drought.types might,They for example, have multiple also experience can Individual countries • • D ro winter crops. precipitation orlow temperatures that damage thewinter from low during suffer unusually exposed. particularly also can countries Other snow andlow temperatures. Mongolia is followed by asevere winter withheavy example,for result from asummer drought pasture livestock. for orfodder This might, combination leading of events toinadequate and drought dzud Winter Asia. andSouth in Central countries Afghanistan, ofChinaandIndia parts thegrowinglater during season. This affects water with limitedsnow affect will resources from mountain glaciers and snowmelt. Ayear on water heavily rely number ofcountries A − runoff Reduced snowmelt orglacial maythough they occur annually. and localized, go unrecorded, often they even of drought. may these events be brief Since u ght a n d develo −Adzud pm e n t 3 It is Itis isa of the chronically poor.of the chronically thresholds maycertain endupjoining the ranks households whose incomes below and assets fall on theirown. fromescape poverty But other transitory, with some households beingableto in pushing people into poverty. factor drought wasthesinglemostimportant Andhra Pradesh inIndia, one that studyfound The impact is greatest on poor farmers. rural In economy. oftherural incomes inotherparts employment and for effects with knock-on related activities, agro-processing, particularly growth notjustinagriculture, butalsoin A prolonged drought slow will down income as well ascultivating rice, alsogrow farmers areas have more diversified crops and livelihoods; though here theimpact was less, these because north-eastern China,Thailand and southern The same study also considered the impact in points. of 1.8percentage rate poverty in therural atthenational toanincrease level translate would which intopoverty back people fell in a drought year almost 13 million additional II-2).around (Figure one-quarter Inthese states that indrought years farmers’ by incomes fell example, 1970-2002 found the period covering A studyinthree India, statesineastern for have been made II-1. as shown inFigure of economicmap therisk loss across the region of economic loss from drought, to some efforts Though itisdifficult to determine exact estimates 40 per cent. itgenerated countries lower-middle-income for 17 percentofthe valueadded toGDP, while countries,middle-income generated agriculture to the economy. In 2014, high- and upper- for agriculture’s issimilarfor pattern contribution 6 Part of the increase in poverty may be Part may be of the increase inpoverty 4 7 5 49

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure II-1 Economic losses from drought

Legend Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles 1th - 4th 5th - 7th 8th - 10th

Source: World Bank, 2005. Notes: The economic risk ranges from 1-10, with 10 as the highest risk. By weighting the value of GDP exposure to drought for each grid cell by a vulnerability coefficient, it is possible to obtain an estimate of drought risk. This estimate of the drought risk can then serve as proxy for economic losses as a proportion of GDP per area. The vulnerability weights are based on historical economic losses recorded in previous disasters. The economic loss risks are then applied to GDP per unit area exposure. The weights are an aggregate index relative to losses within each region and according to the country’s wealth classes over a 20-year period from 1981-2000 (classifications based on 2000 GDP).

commercial field crops that are less sensitive But the poorest may resort to ‘erosive’ coping to drought, and in addition have more non- mechanisms, such as removing children from farm income. school, taking high-interest loans, or selling off 8 Farming communities hit by drought respond income-generating assets (Table II-1). In some in different ways. Some may be able to absorb cases farmers driven into debt have committed the impact by migrating, or drawing on savings. suicide.9

50 Income lossduetoadroughtyearineasternIndia :Source IFAD, 2009. Figure

O

J C Major droughtcopingmechanismsoffarmhouseholds−China,India,Thailand Table

H Drought copingstrategies Use ofcashandin-kindsavings treatment, andchildren’s education Expenditure onsocialfunctions,medical Migration Artificial rainmaking Artificial Use ofsocialnetwork Consumption decline Borrowing Asset sale while a single sign indicates marginal change;while asingle sign indicates ‘n.a.’ indicates ‘not applicable’. :Key adecrease, -Indicates anincrease, + indicates nochange. and0indicates larger change, Doublesignsindicate :Source IFAD, 2009. Employment throughfood-for-work programme

R

H Land Livestock

0

II-2

1

0 II-1

0

1

1

4

6 2

0

0 0

0

2

4

3

0

0

0

3

1

0

3

4

3

6 Difference ofaverageincomeinnormalanddroughtyear

0

8

0

0

0

4

2

0

4

5

6

0

5

0

0

0

0

6

0

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6

2

0

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7

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0 Southern China

0

8

0

0

+ + + + 0 0 0 0 0 0

8

9

5

0

0

0

(US$) -43% -26% -48% -24% -79% -58% Eastern India n.a. ++ ++ ++ ++ + + + + - regular income from agricultureissharperthan Due todrought,decreasedincome ■ ■ ■ ■ Incomefromagriculture-Droughtyear Incomefromagriculture-Normalyear Regularincome-Droughtyear Regularincome-Normalyear OR -Orissa J H-Jharkhand CH -Chattisgarh North-eastern Thailand + + + + + + 0 0 0 0 51

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Water and land management from melting glaciers and snow, and groundwater. Figure II-3 shows the availability and source Currently around one-third of the land in of freshwater by country as a function of the 13 Asia and the Pacific is used for agriculture − land area. Consumption of freshwater for a proportion that has remained steady and is agriculture ranges from 60 per cent to more unlikely to increase since the region is already than 95 per cent in the majority of countries reaching its limit of available arable land.10 Any of Asia and the Pacific, with many countries in South, South-East and Central Asia using restrictions in the available land and water have 14 implications for food security, as it is estimated more than 90 per cent. that food production will need to increase 50 11 Some agricultural products require more water per cent by 2030 and 70 per cent by 2050. than others, with agricultural products such as Drought significantly affects crop yield: estimates beef, rubber, cotton and biofuels using much from India, for example, indicate that while more than other products. Livestock production floods reduce agricultural production on an in particular is very water intensive and accounts annual average basis by 5 per cent, droughts for around eight per cent of global freshwater 12 reduce it by 12 per cent. use.15 Several countries reliant on agriculture are relatively dry however, and therefore need There are three primary sources of freshwater strong water management strategies, particularly – precipitation such as rain and snow, runoff if water-intensive products are grown.

Figure II-3 Water resources by source

22

17

12

7

2 1 000 cubic metres/year/hectare Fiji India urkey Nepal -3 China Japan T Bhutan iet Nam Georgia ajikistan Mongolia Armenia Thailand Pakistan Australia Malaysia Lao PDR V T Myanmar Sri Lanka Indonesia Cambodia imor-Leste Azerbaijan Philippines DPR Korea Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Afghanistan Bangladesh T urkmenistan -8 T Solomon Islands Republic of Korea Brunei Darussalam Russian Federation Papua New Guinea Iran (Islamic Rep. of)

■ Groundwater produced internally (1 000 m3/yr/ha) ■ Surface water produced internally (1 000 m3/yr/ha) ■ Total external renewable water (1 000 m3/yr/ha)

Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT. Available from http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E (accessed on 15 August, 2015).

52

Groundwater produced internally (1000 m3/yr/ha) Surface water produced internally (1000 m3/yr/ha) Total external renewable water (1000 m3/yr/ha) activity, andseasonal weather patterns. theclimate the land is managed, of agricultural the type from one area toanotherdependingon how of water resource vary management will which contaminants. This highlightstheimportance reduced by pollutionfrom seawaterorother sensitive to irregular weather patterns. States,island developing are which therefore very with regular monsoon seasons ormany small on rainfall. tocountries This appliesparticularly rely and those without generally limited irrigation reliant that many countries on agriculture have or have intodisrepair. fallen shows II-4 Figure the region’s extensive are countries notvery agrarian irrigation, in many however of systems irrigation areas beprotectedSome can from drought by replenished. from sources, asgroundwater, such thanis In some catchments, more water is withdrawn Percentage ofcultivatedareaequippedforirrigation :Source Based on data from FAOSTAT. Available from http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E (accessed on 21 August, 2015). Figure 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 0

New Zealand Turkmenistan

Pakistan II-4 Uzbekistan 16 Water alsobe can availability Kyrgyzstan Georgia Tajikistan Azerbaijan Bangladesh DPR Korea Japan Armenia China Viet Nam Nepal Republic of Korea Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Afghanistan – more than any other region in the world. hectares oflandare affected by desertification Across Asia and the Pacific around 1,400 million drier, even climate sustaining adownward spiral. reduction invegetative then make the cover can India thisleadsextreme todesertification. cases species toencroach on land. grazing In the most of vegetation, or allowing noxious orpoisonous damages thestructure, the composition changing produce areasonable yield. Drought thenfurther crops,available for require more to rainfall able toretain waterandhave lessmoisture soil resilience. Poor soils, quality are which less the soilisalready duetothelossof degraded crops.for damaging when Drought isparticularly andlevels,quality create can stress andproblems in evapotranspiration, andreduced groundwater inprecipitation,Shortages combined with changes Thailand Sri Lanka Bhutan Lao PDR Philippines Myanmar Brunei Darussalam Timor-Leste Indonesia Kazakhstan Cambodia Mongolia Australia Malaysia Russian Federation Fiji

Maldives 17 A 18 Papua New Guinea 53

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Since the 1970s, the land area affected by drought Climate change globally has doubled, eroding development gains and exacerbating poverty among the millions of It is difficult to establish a direct relationship people who depend directly on the land as a between drought and climate change due to a lack source of livelihood.19 In South and South-East of direct drought observations and geographical Asia, around 74 per cent of agricultural land inconsistencies in monitoring drought trends. has been severely affected by wind or water Nevertheless, climate change seems likely to erosion, or polluted to the extent that it is no increase drought risk. Compared with any longer productive.20 This makes it difficult to preceding decade since 1850, each of the last sustain development in rural areas. three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface. This has many implications El Niño for weather and water resources. Glaciers, for example, are an important source of water for Exacerbating all of these water and land many countries, and are already retreating at an management factors is the potential impact of alarming rate, and the Northern Hemisphere El Niño cycles, which in some countries increase has seen a reduction in spring snow cover. In addition there have been changes in the patterns the likelihood of drought. Scientists predicted 23 a serious El Nino event for 2015 in Asia and of extreme climate events. the Pacific, and the tropical Pacific Ocean is already experiencing moderate El Niño levels.21 Increased temperatures could result in changes In some parts of the region the effects can be to precipitation patterns, earlier snowmelt, and beneficial, for example for commercial forestry, increased evapotranspiration, which could increase particularly in South Asia. But in many parts of the risk of hydrological and agricultural drought. Asia El Niño leads to higher temperatures and There are also likely to be more frequent heat fewer rainy days which reduce the production waves − which can affect agricultural production of rice, maize and wheat. by adding stress to livestock and some crops, in turn requiring more water. A number of countries are also likely to be affected by irregular climate ESCAP and the Regional Integrated Multi- patterns, such as changes in the start or finish hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) have 24 of the monsoon season. assessed the likely effects in 2015 on key sectors of high-risk Pacific island countries. The Many countries are already trying to adapt to strongest precipitation will be in South-East climate change. One of the largest adaptation Asia and parts of the Pacific, especially in the funds in the world is the Pilot Program for dry season. Papua New Guinea, which is very Climate Resilience. This demonstrates ways exposed because they normally have very low in which climate risk and resilience may be dry-season rainfall, is already experiencing the integrated into core development planning and impact, with more than 2.4 million people 22 implementation. The programme provides grants affected and dozens killed by drought. In and concessional financing to a small number the wet season reduced rainfall could have of countries for a wide range of activities, such significant impacts in the Central and Southern as improving agricultural practices and building islands of the Pacific that depend on subsistence food security. agriculture (Box II-1).

54 The IndianmonsoonwasoftenweakerduringElNiño. Indonesia oftensuffereddroughts(FigureB).Therainzonemovedeasttotheislandsalongequator. while at latitudes 10°-15°, North and South, rainfall decreased (Figure A). From June to August, eastern to MaythestrongesteffectswereinWesternPacificOcean:alongequatorrainfallincreased, El Niñotherewas,onaverage,morerainthannormal,whileredcirclesindicatedrought.FromMarch Weather disturbancesduringElNiño weather over the last century. The RoyalMeteorologicalSocietyoftheNetherlandscomputedhowElNiñoperturbedaverage B islands alongtheequatorremainedwetter(FigureC). From DecembertoFebruary,thePhilippinesandeastIndonesiastayeddrier,whereasPacific ox Figure A:ElNiñoandLaNiñaoverthelast II-1 century forMarch-May :Source KNMI, 2014. Figure C:ElNiñoandLaNiñaoverthelast 25 This is indicated in the maps below. Blue circles indicate that during century forDecember-February Figure B:ElNiñoandLaNiñaoverthelast century forJune-August 55

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Regional Drought Mechanism A further obstacle to effective implementation is a lack of inter-agency cooperation − for sharing Signs of drought can be observed from space the information, or presenting it in ways that long before they are visible on the ground to can be understood and used. the human eye. This satellite-based perspective would be useful for farmers: with suitable For this reason, ESCAP has established the warnings they can take appropriate action, Regional Drought Mechanism. This takes perhaps sourcing more water, or switching to advantage of data and imagery from the region’s crops that are more drought-resistant. spacefaring countries − such as, China, India, Japan, Thailand and others − and shares it Some efforts have already been made to allow with other countries, especially those perennially access to these tools and information, such as prone to drought. This service complements the Agriculture Stress Index System which WMO’s Global Framework for Climate detects agricultural areas with a high likelihood Services by providing more detailed, localized of water stress.26 Many countries, however, do forecasts and monitoring that can be updated not have the institutional capacity to integrate during the growing season. The aim is to give these high-end knowledge products into their a comprehensive real-time drought monitoring operational drought monitoring and early and early warning system and to seamlessly link warning systems: they may be unable to set up long-term climate scenarios with the seasonal the system, or to access or interpret the data. climate outlooks (Figure II-5). Countries can

Figure II-5 ESCAP Regional Drought Mechanism - Global Framework for Climate Services

Climate change Years to decade Scenarios IPCC Assessment climate scenarios Report Scientific uncertainty

Climate variability Seasons to year Outlook Downscaled climate model scenarios WMO climate outlook

Weather Local specific forecasts Months to season

Seasonal forecast, National weather Forecasts monsoon forecast, services El Niño/La Niña forecast Areas of critical gaps Regional Drought Weeks to month Crop In-season crop stress detection for drought Mechanism

Alerts In-season monitoring Remote sensing and ground observation Areas of critical gaps

Monitoring and early Crop forecasting, Food security, warning land use/cover climate change adaptation

56 Climate outlookreportedforthesummermonsooninSouthAsia,2014 by the UnitedNations. :Disclaimer andnamesshown officialendorsementor andthedesignations acceptance The boundaries used on this mapdonotimply Forum, Asian Climate Outlook ofSouth Session :Source Fifth 2014. people that needit most. the information, anddisseminatethedatato toprocess andinterpret build theircapacity services, themostappropriate to determine nodes andESCAP work with memberStates and capacity. Onrequest, from experts these India, these provide space-based data, products, nodes.has two service BasedinChinaand Currently, theRegional Drought Mechanism reach people. theright services warning the early build the institutional network required to ensure and works withnational governments toclarify partnerships, also develops The mechanism and corrections and measures drought for mitigation. drought over large areas −allowing mid-course on the onset alerts of agricultural issuing timely in-season monitoring cropuse this for stress and Figure II-6 drought year year (2012) and a normal (2005) example NDVI a anomalies) for were analysed impacts. ofvegetation Indicators stress (for thegrowingduring season, drought indicating the stresswas usedto determine on vegetation In addition to the seasonal outlooks, data satellite sectors. along withthepotentialimpacts invarious atregional,risk subregional and national levels, and RIMES highlighted theconsequent drought of the drought mechanism,As apart ESCAP anElNiño-associated indicated drought.which − II-6) Asia in2014(Figure South for rainfall Forums andtheoutlook the summer monsoon for data from the WMO Regional Climate Outlook in 2014. Lanka Sri for with The pilot started DroughtThe Regional waspiloted Mechanism 27 57

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

and validated through stakeholder consultations. Figure II-9 shows a synthesis of various indices These NDVI anomaly indicators were found − offering an important baseline for developing to be closely linked with in-season drought a dzud early warning system. Other countries conditions (Figure II-7). currently participating in the Regional Drought Mechanism include Afghanistan, Cambodia, Using NDVI anomalies, Sri Lanka analysed the Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar and Nepal. agricultural drought during the growing season in 2014 by comparing the degree of difference from the baseline drought year (2012) and The Regional Drought Mechanism is also seeking the normal year (2005) (Figure II-8). The red to collaborate with similar initiatives globally. areas indicate the extent to which there was These include the Group on Earth Observations less cover in 2014, and the green areas show for Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) where there was more. Analysis of this can also launched in 2011 by the G20 countries. This serve as a baseline for long-term strategies on partnership would be mutually beneficial: the drought mitigation, climate change adaptation mechanism would gain access to a broad and food security. range of specialized GEO data and products, while GEOGLAM would have another outlet Another exercise was carried out in Mongolia. for its forecasts. Both initiatives build on In this case the country worked with the existing agricultural monitoring programmes regional service node in China. The aim was and strengthen them through international to investigate the dzud − drought leading to networking, operationally focused research, and inadequate pasture or fodder, followed by a data and method sharing. Another important severe winter that kills much of the livestock. initiative is the Asia Rice Crop Estimation For this purpose, Mongolia used space and & Monitoring programme which would be ground-based indicators such as forest cover, and strengthened by working with the Regional the condition of the steppe and desert steppe. Drought Mechanism. Figure II-7 Vegetation index-based drought assessment, Sri Lanka, 2014

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 0.65 Normal NDVI (2005)

0.60

0.55 Drought NDVI (2012) 0.50

0.45

0.40

0.35 Active vegetation to senescence phase 0.30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Notes: The normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) is a measure of vegetation cover (‘normalization’ is required when combining different images to take into account differences in the sun’s elevation). 58 by theUnitedNations. :Disclaimer andnames shown officialendorsementor andthedesignations acceptance The boundaries used on thismapdonotimply Notes: Year 2014iscompared year) to2005(normal and 2012(drought year). The red areas of signal high levels vegetation stress. NDVI anomaly(vegetationstress)ofSriLanka Mongolia is particularly prone todzud-acombination ofdrought livestock. for Mongolia andsevere leadingof food winterevents toalack isparticularly Figure

UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe March II-8 April May June July August Non-agricultural areamask Water bodies 2014 vs2005 Anomaly ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 40to100 20to40 10to20 0to10 -10to0 -20to-10 -40to-20 -100to-40 59

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure II-9 Drought in Mongolia

1st 10 days of June, 2015

Legend province boundary Undefined Moderate drought Province center Urban, Sand, Rock Severe drought Soum boundary Normal Extreme drought Lake Slight drought

Source: Mongolia, 2015. Notes: This map is based on a composite of various indices, including the normalized difference drought index, the vegetation supply water index, and the thermal condition index. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

province boundary Undefined Moderate drought Province center Urban, Sand, Rock Severe drought Soum boundary Normal Extreme drought BuildiLake ng resilieSlightn droughtce to drought however, most of the current activity is for response, and even that is often quite late, For drought, as for other disasters, building since droughts develop slowly and may not resilience requires a full disaster management be noticed until they become emergencies. cycle approach: mitigation and adaptation to However, this slow onset, if recognized, also minimize the risk; preparedness to respond as provides more time to apply additional drought necessary; relief to assist those in need; and management strategies compared to other rapid investment in long-term recovery. In the onset disasters. case of drought this is usually complicated by the multiple institutions involved − for For anticipating and mitigating the impacts example, ministries concerned with agriculture, of drought, there are a number of options. water management, land management, disaster Governments may, for example, have a dedicated response, and planning or finance. In practice, drought management policy, or they may

60 • circumstances. their national those most appropriate for choose merits, needto meaningthat governments will agriculture orwater. Eachapproach hasits plans,under othersectoral asthosefor such management, may or they address drought drought integrate management underdisaster • • • institutions this produced theNational Disaster National Water Resources Policy. elements related todrought underits Kiribati other disasters. from it separately manner and prioritizes addressingfor drought inacomprehensive levels. identifies theprinciples The policy atthestate,supported andlocal territory Policy with specificprogrammes and initiatives National adedicated developed Drought −In1992,Australia theGovernment preparedness andresponse. comprehensive mitigation, manner including addressedit isalsospecifically inamore a broader disastermanagement strategy, Drought. althoughdrought under falls So Management Guidelines: Management of Minister. In 2010 in consultation chairedManagement by Authority the Prime Act establishedtheNational Disaster India − In 2005, India’s Disaster Management and recovery. Depending on the severity prevention, for system preparedness, response under a singlecommand operate others which of Agriculture and Cooperatives,Ministry and of Interior,Mitigation under the Ministry the ofDisaster Preventionare the Department and Thailand − The agenciesfor drought relevant and conservation. issues related to sound water management on seawater underground. covers It primarily from rain, or a shallow layer, or lens, resting SIDS, on freshwater only rely which available theunique circumstancesrecognizes of many − Kiribati has integrated various various has integrated − Kiribati 28 with various with various This policy policy This

• • on relief. response policy, with theemphasis predominantly however, drought underageneral disaster falls in the region, of countries In the majority eight key issues. eight key sections cover inthe following which indicated there common are elements, often country as to theapproach from differ will country While ofgovernment. levels at all based national policies thatassiststakeholders drought-pronerisk- formulate effective countries Drought Management Policies. This helps National Development toSupport Capacity water-related issues, anInitiative launched on and UnitedNations institutions involved in In 2013, UN-Water, anetwork of international • also focused on emergency response. onalso focused emergency Board DisastersManagement is for which Indonesia − hasaNational The country offer offer relief programmes. to ofAgriculture totheMinistry reverts until conditions are severe. Response then to bealossoflife, may which notoccur ofHome Affairsthere needs the Ministry covers drought, yet action totrigger from Nepal − The Natural DisasterReliefAct another district authority.another district water resources of undertheresponsibility difficulties in coordination, as such accessing has advantages thoughthere alsobe can rests government authorities. with local This soresponsibility localized regular butgenerally Against Natural Disasters Act. Droughts are andCountermeasures of Disasters and Safety under the Framework Act on the Management −Drought management Korea falls Republic of relief. responsible mitigation, for management and and extent ofdrought, different agencies are 29 30 32

31 61

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

• Long-term risk management to prepare for and manage this risk. In addition • A livelihood approach to offering relief in times of hardship, the • Management of natural resources Government has programmes for mitigating • Multisectoral coordination and adapting to the risk of drought. India uses • Using science and technology techniques of climate variability management, • Regional cooperation which encourages farmers to build reserves • Agricultural insurance during favourable seasons that they can draw • Social safety nets on in drier seasons.33

Long-term risk management Risk reduction, preparedness and mitigation can include: Rather than relying on short-term relief and • Alternative crops − changing to crops that response, countries should give a greater priority demand less water or varieties that are to preparedness and long-term risk management drought-resistant; − which can mitigate the effects and allow for • Early warning and improving access to data adaptation to changing environmental conditions. − for strengthening seasonal forecasts and If farmers know in advance that there is a early warning systems, along with planning strong likelihood of drought conditions, they and risk management; can plant drought-resistant crops, budget water • Knowledge and communications networks − for resources more carefully, or introduce water-saving transferring information from government techniques (Box II-2). agencies to farmers; • Land management − improving information Australia’s most recent policy reforms, for for land management and drought planning; example, recognize drought as a recurring part • Employment − diversifying employment or of the country’s climate and encourage farmers livelihoods;

Box II-2 Watershed management in Karnataka, India

Between 2001 and 2009 the state government of Karnataka in India partnered with several NGOs and the World Bank in seven rain-fed districts to develop a successful watershed programme called Sujala.34 This combined cutting-edge technology with bottom-up local participation. GIS mapping was used to integrate large volumes of satellite data with non-spatial data on such issues as rainfall, literacy, and demography. This formed the basis of a comprehensive action plan for each micro-watershed that communities could use to construct a small model that enabled them to see the bigger picture and the potential risks and prioritize areas to be treated.

The Sujala project helped increase crop yields by about 25 per cent, reduce soil erosion and run-off by up to 21 cubic metres per hectare, and increase the proportion of land irrigated by between 6 and 14 per cent.35 Farmers were able to increase their incomes and diversify to other non-farm activities, with the benefits extending to women, the land less and other vulnerable groups.36

62 education to increaseeducation farmers’ to cope. capacity and in rural infrastructure investment inrural development programme. This should include and sustainable of aninclusive as part eradication poverty mitigationDrought shouldsupport A livelihood approach other development purposes.used for valuableresourcesdrain thatcould bebetter recurrent targeted because be carefully relief will to have relief options. should But these schemes onpeople rely itisalsoimportant agriculture most oftheregion’sBecause poorandvulnerable • • • • • • • • • • • drought events. householdsduring good seasons tosupport management during −strategies risk Financial nent migration; or perma- Migration temporary −arranging groundwater andinland fresh water bodies; water storage in watersheds, reservoirs, soil, waterImprove management −increase encourage cultivation ofsuitable species; practices areas, in high-risk agricultural or to restrict − planning and zoning Zoning storage at acommunity level; Stockpiling −seedbanks, andwater feedstock or destocking; Livestock management (e.g. notillage); practices agricultural changing for and farmers − improvedEducation of community education Land rehabilitation degraded land; − for andenvironmentalwater quality management; Ecosystem management −improving landcare, drainage systems; or spray jets or rehabilitating and irrigation asdrips, such systems irrigation sprinklers −introducing high-tech irrigation Improving and building storage systems; Water −improving water retention conservation − migration of stock ofstock −migration 37 37

• • the ecosystem to produce acceptable yields while toproduce while the ecosystem acceptable yields in the most efficient mannerand enable utilized soils. allow watertobe This will retained and soil systems, degrade and limit practices that can come. to maintain healthy Itisalsoimportant seasons be available for and generationswill to or groundwater aquifers, sothat these resources to return ecosystems, tonatural asforests such maintaining healthy watersheds −allowing water ecosystems. This shouldmean, example, for need toremain withinthelimitsofthese environment.physical thus systems Agricultural interactions between livingorganismsandthe involving of a complex ecosystem Agriculture is part Maintaining ecosystems • in drought-prone areas. andsustainingmicro-watersheds harvesting of the best options is community-based water remainpolicies still inanascent stage. One steps tomitigatedrought, althoughthe − Afghanistan hastaken The Government andtraining.along withfinancial services of self-helpgroups andtheirfederations, building families − emphasizing capacity rural topoor livelihood development opportunities Development provides of Rural the Ministry National Livelihoods Mission under Rural livelihood opportunities. Inaddition, the productive assetsleading tosustainable employment andwages whilebuilding Act Employment provides Guarantee Rural India − The MahatmaGandhiNational to higher yields. crops andcropping hasled −which patterns adjust theircultivation −changing practices with drought. to Ithasencouraged farmers to strengthen coping for community capacities drought mitigation and preparedness. It aims Fund investments hasmade significant in Pakistan − The Pakistan Alleviation Poverty 39 38 63

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

reducing the need for fertilizers. Maintaining Farmers who have experience in adapting to biodiversity can reduce the impact of pests and changing environmental conditions can also disease that can devastate a single crop − as advise policymakers on how best to support their well as reducing the need for pesticides. livelihoods. A survey of seven Asian countries – Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Farmers are the custodians of the land and it is Pakistan and Viet Nam − found that in some in their family’s best interest to maintain these countries, almost a half of the respondents were resources within acceptable limits. In Asia and concerned about changes to the environment. the Pacific, they have been tackling uncertain Many farmers were already rotating crops or climate conditions and drought for centuries. One planting different ones but only a few felt example is the wewa water basins of Sri Lanka, informed about what they could do to cope some of which are 2,000 years old and still in with these changes.40 use. This ancient system, which covers nearly 80 per cent of the country, consists of hydrologically A number of countries emphasize the importance interconnected man-made reservoirs, one below of involving farmers in ecosystem management. the other. This cascade model not only reuses • Australia − The 1992 National Drought water but also controls both floods and droughts Policy recognizes the role of farmers in in the dry and intermediate zones. national resource management, the importance e Perret n e Photo/Marti UN

64 • • • • • have the most suitable ecological conditions.have themost suitable ecological incentives growing for crops inareas that programme that provides basin-based support Turkeya − includes policy The agricultural (Box II-3). non-market benefits have beenidentified building.capacity A number of market and example, women’s self-help development and as well aseconomic −for and social support interventions andtechnical ecosystem-based approach, aparticipatory include including Guidelines: Management ofDrought, and under India’s National Disaster Management responsibility. involvement community andemphasizes water resource management. Goal two ofsustainable theimportance recognizes policy Kiribati todamage the soil. likely methods that are less the useofagricultural planting to help maintain soil moisture, and areas,particular protective afforestation, drought-resistantof new for crops zoned impacts ofdrought. theuse These include practices have beenhelpingmitigatethe FederationRussian − Conservation-based resources and watersheds. hectares oflandto protect andregulate water toreforestundertaken around five million Nam work −Considerable Viet hasbeen services. watershedsandtheirecosystem important torestoreof degraded landinaneffort improving andreforesting tenmillion hectares production andhasbeenagricultural a watersheddevelopment approach to the 1970s,India − Since India has taken andresilience.sustainability change, andtheneed toenhance long-term resource drought base during and climate thenatural of maintainingandsupporting 41 − Goal one of the water management − Goalone ofthe water management These programmes were established 44 43 42

of refinement and revision. This is a complex process and may take years non-government stakeholders as appropriate. andother authorities as subnational andlocal aswell − involving many government ministries arrangements acrosssharing stakeholders the key all coordination andplanning, along within formation programme ismultisectoral. Itrequires extensive An effective end-to-enddrought management Multisectoral management drought land and soil quality’. other disastersandthatprogressively improve change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and adaptation for that toclimate strengthen capacity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, thatincrease practices productivity agricultural production andimplementresilient systems 2.4 states ‘(b)y 2030, ensure sustainablefood of sustainable agriculture. To this, achieve goal highlight the importance A number of the SDGs • • though anumberofother institutions are implementing policies, plans andguidelines; and developing responsibility for the primary Authority, headed by the Prime Minister, has levels. The National DisasterManagement from departments nationalsectoral tolocal identify the roles andresponsibilities ofvarious the National Disaster Management Act 2005 adopted in2010under India −Guidelines and management (Table II-2). drought mitigation, warning, early response aspects of number ofinstitutions invarious ofdrought andinvolve alarge the severity depending on ofgovernment and thelevel Bureau. Requirements undertheplanvary Disaster Prevention andMitigation Policy drought, administered by primarily the legislation coupledwithamasterplanon under comprehensive disaster management managementThailand −Drought falls

65

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Box II-3 Watershed development for drought mitigation

Watershed development provides many valuable market and non-market benefits − though these are often neglected or undervalued in decision-making. Assigning an economic value to these benefits can assist policymakers in making funding decisions and also increase public awareness of the value of an ecosystem-based approach. Economists have developed methods for quantifying non-market benefits, such as stated preference, revealed preference, and benefits transfer approaches. The tables below summarize the benefits from a watershed development programme in Kumbharwadi, India.

Market and non-market benefits of watershed development in Kumbharwadi, India Market benefits Non-market benefits Improved crop sales Carbon sequestration Improved livestock sales Habitat improvement/biodiversity Avoided travel cost for migratory work Improved nutrition and health Avoided travel cost for drinking water Improved diversity in diet Avoided cost of government supplied water tankers Increased enrolment in education Improved fuel wood and fodder supplies Female empowerment Community development Improved resilience to drought Pollination Water filtration

Indicators of watershed improvement Indicator Unit Reporting year 1998 2002 2010-2011 Government-supplied water tankers Number/year 25-30 0 0 Average depth of water table below ground level Metres 6.5 3.5 3 Land under irrigation (perennial) Hectares 0 9.72 50 Total crop area Hectares 457 510 566 Value of cropland Rupees/hectare 15,000 65,000 65,000 Wells Numbers 63 85 91 Agricultural employment Months per year 3-4 8-9 12 Agricultural wage rate Rupees 25 65 225

Source: WRI, 2013.

66 • the commonwealth, state and territory Program was reached Reform between Agreement on the National Drought −In2013,Australia an Intergovernmental Multisectoral droughtmanagementinThailand Agriculture. programmes, of the Ministry inparticular responsible administering various for Table Institution and Mitigation Department ofDisasterPrevention Department ofRoyalIrrigation Department ofLandDevelopment Extension of Agricultural Department (Public Organization-GISTDA) Technology Development Agency Geo-Informatics andSpace Thai MeteorologicalDepartment Resources Department ofGroundwater these Departments of Offices District and Provincial Department ofPublicRelations ICT of Office Secretary Permanent Wildlife andPlantConservation Department ofNaturalParks, Department ofForest Department ofWater Resources Local AdministrationAuthority Bangkok Metropolitan Authority Bangkok and SocialSecurity Ministry ofHumanDevelopment Cooperatives Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry ofPublicHealth Ministry ofLabour Ministry ofFinance II-2 45 assessment Drought Drought risk risk x x x x x x x x x x database database and GIS and GIS Drought Drought system x x x x x x x x x x

forecasting forecasting monitoring monitoring Drought Drought system Drought Policy development. Prior to this, theNational for responsibility primary ashavingthe ofAgriculture Department legislation and programmes, identifies the Policy 1992, drought underlies still which responsibilities of each. The Drought National governments andidentified theroles and and and x x x x x x x x x x map update and hazard and hazard database database Drought Drought x x x x x x x x x x x x x equipment during equipment during Mobilizing human resources and resources and drought x x x x x x x x x x x drought Post- Post- x x x x x x x x 67

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

drought was treated as a natural disaster Using science and technology under the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements administered by the Science and technology play an important role Australian Government Attorney-General’s in planning, mitigation, adaptation, forecasting Department.46 and early warning of drought. Malaysia, the • Sri Lanka − The Government is establishing a Philippines and Thailand, for example, have drought monitoring and response programme been seeding clouds as a method of mitigating which involves several sectoral agencies drought. In addition, a number of countries have including agriculture, water management, research programmes for adapting plant species irrigation, meteorology, natural resource to be more drought tolerant. management, disaster management, statistics, and science and technology. With the support Over the past decade, the opportunities for of ESCAP’s Regional Drought Mechanism, using advanced technology have expanded the Government established a network of dramatically, particularly in the area of space relevant institutions through memorandums applications, hydrology and meteorology. Global of agreement identifying their roles and satellite systems can identify and monitor areas responsibilities.47 affected by, or prone to, drought. This data, with other information, can be fed into geographic One forum which could serve countries well in information systems to build an extensive drought bringing together various government agencies monitoring model to aid the accurate estimation and other institutions is the Monsoon Forum of soil moisture and indicate how it will affect which has been established in a number of crop production (Box II-4). Asia-Pacific countries.

Box II-4 Land cover mapping

Measures for drought mitigation and adaptation benefit from close monitoring of land cover. This is because different land uses retain water better than others. Geospatial science can monitor changes in land cover and allow farmers to act accordingly before dryness or drought sets in. Currently, there are several sets of global land cover maps at different levels of resolution. Until 2014, the highest resolution product (300 metres to one pixel) was GlobCover produced by the European Space Agency (ESA). The resolution of other datasets such as IGBP-DIS Cover from USGS, UMD GeoCover from the University of Maryland, and BU_MODIS from Boston University, all have resolutions of 1,000 metres. In 2010, China launched Remote Sensing Mapping and Research on Key Technologies of Global Land Cover (GlobeLand30 or GLC30), which provides a 30-metre spatial resolution.

In terms of total land use, this type of mapping indicates, for example, how more land is now being swallowed up by urban areas. In Asia and the Pacific over the period 2000-2010 around 25,000 square kilometres were lost − 72 per cent came from cultivated land, followed by grassland (15 per cent), forest land (7 per cent), bare land (5 per cent) and shrub land, wetland and water bodies (all less than 1 per cent).

68 Satellite-based droughtvulnerabilitymapforChina acceptance by the United Nations. :Disclaimer or andnamesshown officialendorsement andthedesignationsThe boundaries used on thismap do notimply :Source Beijing Normal University, 2015. perhaps, additional supplies. food orimporting in advance −plantingdrought-resistant crops, months get several if they theinformation resources may have more adaptation timefor reliant onfor water snowmelt and glacial runoff snowmonitoring and ice cover, since countries valuablefor beparticularly can technology Mapping basedon microwave remote sensing II-10). drought andhazard maps(Figure monitoring China andIndiahave alsobeendeveloping detecting drought data for utilizing satellite losses. Federation hashad 20years in ofexperience ecological, and hazard maps. climatic Russian The data,and soil quality of produce can a variety information, ashydrological, such meteorological Combining thesedatawithground-based Figure II-10 Vulnerability Map Drought China Agricultural Areas withnomaingraincrop High Less high Moderate Low Development, example, for helpscountries Applications Programme Sustainable for and regional cooperation. Space The Regional subregional for provides agood opportunity and solutions transboundary. are often This and water problems nationalrecognize boundaries Watershed anddrought donot catchments cooperationRegional discussed ingreater detailin Chapter 4. are A numberofother innovative technologies II-11). between 2010and 2011(Figure that the water available from snow and icefell watershed.Amu Darya Mapping demonstrated example, source are the ofwater for animportant andThe mountains of Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan, for

69

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure II-11 Snow water equivalent monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, 2010 and 2011

Snow Water equivalent (mm) Snow Water equivalent (mm) March 22th, 2010 March 22th, 2011

Legend ■ Legend ■ 110 - 130 110 - 130 unit:mm unit:mm ■ 130 - 150 ■ 130 - 150 ■ ■ 10 - 30 ■ 150 - 170 ■ 10 - 30 150 - 170 ■ ■ ■ 30 - 50 ■ 170 - 190 30 - 50 170 - 190 ■ ■ ■ 50 - 70 ■ 190 - 210 50 - 70 190 - 210 ■ ■ ■ 70 - 90 ■ 210 - 230 70 - 90 210 - 230 ■ ■ ■ 90 - 110 ■ 230 - 260 90 - 110 230 - 260

0 50 100 200 Miles 0 50 100 200 Miles

Source: Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2015. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

collaborate on space-derived information. The require subregional cooperation where watersheds Regional Drought Mechanism now offers an cross national boundaries. Efforts in sharing opportunity for using this data to monitor policy information and experience, including drought. In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has financial strategies, institutional arrangements and expressed an interest in becoming a focal point social protection policies, would greatly help the for the Regional Drought Mechanism, while many countries of the region which are only Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have established at the preliminary stage of addressing drought a joint emergency and disaster risk reduction in a holistic manner. centre. Pacific island States in particular have great potential for establishing a subregional Agricultural insurance institution with the necessary technical capacity to serve the needs of member States. To some extent households should be able to build up their own resources to act as a buffer Considerable opportunities also exist for other should they be hit by drought. But they could forms of regional cooperation for drought. Food also have access to agricultural insurance products. banking initiatives are already taking place in These have long been available in the region’s some subregions, and great potential exists for developed countries, but since the late 1970s, sharing food production or drought mitigation a number of developing countries have had technologies and knowledge, including genetic programmes for multiple-peril crop insurance− materials and seeds for drought resistant crops. as in Bangladesh, China, India, the Philippines Seed banking and emergency food aid from and Thailand. These can be provided by the neighbouring countries can help during times of public or private sectors, or by public-private crisis. An ecosystem based approach would also partnerships (Figure II-12).

70

N O I T N E RV TE N I Agricultural insurancemodels uses another. of Agriculture one definition whiletheMinistry definition ofdrought; agro-meteorologists use Federation, example, for there isnostandardized bedifficult to manage.this can Russian Inthe provided by the government. drought But for In many countries, is insurance agricultural get compensation. have on-site towait for inspections before they tax breaks. will thatthey mayThey also worry expectpost-disastercompensationif they and especially regard asan expensive insurance luxury uncertain. Onthedemand side, might farmers whentheonset andendtimesare especially toquantify drought risk, struggle insurers often by those most atrisk.out primarily Moreover, of adverse istaken selection iftheinsurance disastersandtherecover natural are problems Commercial to unwilling insurers are often for drought effective protection.not beenvery In general, have schemes insurance agriculture :Source Iturrioz, R., 2009. Figure

T N E M RN VE GO F O L EVE L

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71

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

technology should help improve the actuarial • China − A variety of agencies are involved calculations.48 This should be an opportunity during a drought event. Storehouses around for public-private partnerships. An example the country contain daily necessities, equipment of a parametric insurance scheme for India is and material that can be accessed rapidly. outlined in Box II-5. The system guarantees that people affected by a hazard can receive aid such as food, Social safety nets clothing, and clean water within 24 hours. The hazard relief emergency fund provides When farmers lose their crops or livestock as financial assistance for daily needs and a result of drought they should be able to rely for water pumps, though insurance is also on public social safety nets. If these measures increasingly important for compensating need to be employed regularly, however, they losses.49 can become a serious burden on the government • Malaysia − The Government has offered a − underlining the importance of comprehensive number of forms of aid to relieve the impacts disaster management to minimize the risk and of drought. During 2014, for example, it impact. Many Asia-Pacific countries already provided RM1,400 ($400) per hectare of have significant experience in administering damaged crop to paddy farmers and set relief packages: up a fund of initially RM10 million, later

Box II-5 Weather-based parametric crop insurance

Parametric insurance was introduced as early as 2003 in India − the Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme. This has been heavily subsidized, with an average subsidy of 63 per cent of the premium which has made it difficult for private sector companies to compete.51 The Government has however recently agreed to issue the same subsidies to private sector parametric insurance companies.52

Subsequently parametric insurance has been provided in Asia and the Pacific by a number of private companies. The major players include ICICI Lombard and IFFCO Tokio General Insurance Company. But there are also some micro-insurance providers such as BASIX, which specializes in products for smallholder farmers with limited access to formal credit and risk transfer channels.

One problem in India is that many drought-prone regions do not have daily weather data. It is estimated that an additional 10,000 weather stations would be needed to improve weather data quality, which could cost $6 million to set up, and an additional $1.5 million annually for maintenance. Moreover, there are significant time lags in getting the information from weather stations which hinders the timely provision of compensation.

In 2008 China has initiated a pilot with the World Food Programme and the International Fund for Agricultural Development. While the pilot did raise awareness of the value of agricultural insurance it too suffered from a lack of weather data infrastructure.

72 • • allocated from the Ministry ofFinance. fromallocated the Ministry If necessary, financial is further support for compensation. and issuing loss certificates preparing a list of victims, loss and damage, andagencies are involved insurveying events. rainfall totrigger try Several often Aviation and Agricultural Rainmaking will cattle. for food ofRoyal The Department equipment as water pumps and provide such level. response Emergency teamsmobilize of actions are triggered attheprovincial a drought event,Thailand −During anumber programmes. water conservation to combine these employmentwith schemes be employed. The state also try governments memberswhocan the numberoffamily inadequate, andthere are restrictions on theseactivities isgenerallyfunding for within afive-kilometre radius. However, state government provides work programmes drought istheprovision of employment. Each India − The mainrelief a option during the agriculture sector. increased toRM50 million, assistance to for

UN Photo/Md. Akhlas Uddin 50 53 term food security and sustainable development. security food term eradication,but is essential poverty for long- crisis. can bealong and complexThis process help people inneedwhen drought becomes a insurance, example, for andgovernments should ofmitigatingrisk,also needways through Regional Drought Mechanism. But countries with regional cooperation, asthrough such the and knowledge, information with local along vigilance, combining monitoring high-tech of droughtthe risk should encourage constant sustainable non-farm incomes. At the sametime todiversifyappropriate from to agriculture to address livelihoods, helping people where productivity. mitigation also needs Drought risk that needstobe maintained toensure ecosystem by ofan recognizing thatagriculture ispart relief. thanjustshort-term rather This begins onfocusing long-term mitigation andadaptation is through comprehensive management risk The mosteffective way toaddress drought ba A co s ed a mp rehe pp roach ns ive eco s y s te m - 73

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Endnotes

1 BBC, 2014. 26 FAO, Agriculture Stress Index System (ASIS).

2 Available from http://www.fao.org/climatechange/ Em-Dat, accessed April 2015. asis/en/Chapter 2 3 FAO, 2015. 27 WMO, 2014. 4 World Bank World Development Indicators, 28 Kiribati, 2008. accessed April 2015. 29 Thailand, 2014. 5 ODI, 2013. 30 6 Personal communication with Mr. Pradip K Koirala, IFAD, 2009. Under-Secretary, Ministry of Home Affairs, Nepal, 7 Barrett, 2005. February 2015. 31 8 IFAD, 2009. United Nations Water Decade Programme on Capacity Development, 2015. 9 Dongre and Deshmukh, 2012. 32 Kim and others, 2013. 10 Fischer, 2010. 33 India, 2010. 11 FAO, 2011. 34 World Bank, 2011a. 12 K. Kasturiranjan, 2000. 35 Ibid. 13 Countries indicating a negative water production 36 have agreements with neighbouring countries B. K.Rangnath, and others, 2006. regarding their water supplies. 37 IFAD, 2009. 14 ESCAP, 2015c. 38 IWMI, 2004. 15 UNEP, 2012. 39 World Bank, 2014f. 16 FAO, 2015. 40 BBC, 2014. 17 UNCCD, 2014. 41 United Nations Water Decade Programme on 18 UNESCO, 2012. Capacity Development, 2015. 42 19 World Bank, 2014b. OECD, 2014b. 43 20 ESCAP, 2009. Russian Federation, 2015. 44 21 WMO, 2015a. Kiribati, 2009. 45 22 Papua New Guinea, PNG National Disaster Centre India, 2010. Situation Report No. 07, 30 September 2015. 46 Burdon, A., 1995. Available from http://reliefweb.int/report/papua- new-guinea/png-national-disaster-centre-situation- 47 Personal communication with the Arthur C Clarke report-no-07 Institute for Modern Technologies, Sri Lanka ( July 2015). 23 IPPC, 2013. 48 IFAD, 2010. 24 Ibid. 49 Zhang, 2011. 25 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 2014.

74 53 52 51 50

India, 2010. ESCAP andothers, 2015a. IFAD and WFP, 2010. Development,Capacity 2015. United Nations Water Programme Decade on 75

CHAPTER 2 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

76 ong Kong O bserva t ory Kong H ong The 3 early warning The value of 77

CHAPTER 3 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

CHAPTER 3 The value of early warning

“I acted as soon as I heard the warnings. That was the day before the cyclone was supposed to make landfall, but I went anyway. I did not want to risk anything.”

Kamala from Odisha, India, after cyclone Phailin in 2013.1

A key component of disaster risk reduction is an effective early warning system. Around Asia and the Pacific such systems save thousands of lives and many millions of dollars. An effective warning system combines science and technology with practical local approaches and is fully integrated into broader national and regional strategies for building resilience and reducing disaster risks.

Early warning systems build resilience to for international and regional cooperation. As a disasters and thus mitigate their impact. This result, in Asia and the Pacific, regional warning is clearly recognized in the Sendai Framework mechanisms have been set up, especially for for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, whose tsunamis and tropical cyclones, with linkages to seventh global target is: global networks, and there is a general trend “(g) Substantially increase the availability of towards strengthened regional and South-South and access to multi-hazard early warning cooperation. systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.” At both national and regional levels, well- functioning, people-centred early warning systems Member States and their partners are thus save lives and livelihoods.2 There is evidence of committed to making early warning systems more this from across the region. people-centred, and also to improving access to • Bangladesh − The Cyclone Preparedness risk information for end users. In disaster risk Programme has strengthened early warning at management, this will mean combining scientific the local level, in particular through a network information with practical approaches. of over 50,000 community volunteers, and done so within a coherent, overall framework Each national government is responsible for its for disaster risk reduction. Combined with the own early warning systems. But many hazards construction of shelters and other structural cut across national boundaries and affect multiple measures this has made a major difference countries simultaneously − those that share (Box III-1). coastlines, for example, or mountain ranges or • India – In October 2013 the country was struck rivers. There are therefore many opportunities by cyclone Phailin, the second-strongest storm

78 • Improved earlywarningandpreparednessreducescycloneimpactinBangladesh use ofmobiletechnologyforearlywarningdissemination. infrastructure. Therehavealsobeenimportantimprovementsinhazardmonitoringandaveryactive embankments alongthecoastline,constructionofcyclonesheltersandre-fittingpublic number ofdeathsfromcyclonesinBangladesh.Otherkeymeasuresincludetheconstruction The CPP is one of several complementary measures that have contributed to the reduction in the community mobilization. is agoodexampleoflarge-scale‘last-mile’projectinearlywarning,whichachievesresultsthrough project alsoassistsinsheltering,rescuingandprovidingimmediatemedicalattention.Assuch,theCPP Department cyclonewarningsignalstothecommunities.Oncecommunityhasbeenwarned, local 50,000volunteers,theCPPensuresrapiddisseminationofofficialBangladeshMeteorological The CPPsupportsalocalearlywarningsystemforthecoastalpopulation.Throughnetworkofover Bangladesh RedCrescentSociety. (CPP), whichwasintroducedin1972asajointprogrammeoftheGovernmentBangladeshand down tothelocallevel.OneofkeymeasureshasbeenCyclonePreparednessProgramme on disasterriskreduction,therehasbeenastrongfocusstrengtheningtheearlywarningsystem reducing thehumanandeconomicimpactoftropicalcyclones.Aspartoverallnationalstrategy Over thepast40years,GovernmentofBangladeshanditspartnershavemadegreatstridesin BoxIII-1 the days prior to Giri makinglandfall, toGiri prior the days the Giri.of comparable strength –cyclone In by astorm 2010 when Myanmar was struck management. in The benefits evident were comprehensive approach todisaster risk people, adopted amore theGovernment Nargis, an killed estimated which 138,000 Myanmar –Following the2008cyclone of people to safety. evacuations that broughtlarge-scale thousands Hudhud triggered ofcyclone 2014 thearrival thecasualties. in helped minimize Similarly preemptive evacuations ofover 550,000 people, and accurate warnings,timely combined with inIndia. tomake landfall ever Nevertheless, :Source EM-DAT (accessed May 2015). Sidr BOB 01 Bhola Cyclone 2007 1991 1970 Year Strength (Saffir–Simpsonscale) Category 5 Category 5 Category 3 • displacing 81,000 people. damaged,over 11,500more were partially 3,000 homes were destroyed completely and and Babai, over 100 lives were lost, about district, bothKarnali comprises which floods inlivingmemory. Across Bardiya andBabai,Karnali theirworst experienced Nepal –In2014two adjacent basins, river keep the number of casualties toaminimum.keep the numberofcasualties toremain onpartners standby. This helped asked theUnited Nations and its humanitarian 50,000 people at risk. also The Government pre-position relief items and over evacuate workedGovernment with theRedCross to forecasting station waswashedaway,forecasting so Estimated deathtoll 138,866 300,000 4,234 4 InBabaithe 3

79

CHAPTER 3 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

people were unaware of the severity of the A powerful reminder of this was the impact of imminent floods. In Karnali, however, the typhoon Haiyan (‘Yolanda’) in the Philippines early warning system worked, vulnerable in 2013. National authorities had accurately people were alerted and brought to safety forecast this typhoon, and the accompanying and no casualties were recorded. seven-metre high storm surge, several days in • Vanuatu – In March 2015, cyclone Pam, one advance.9 Nevertheless at least 6,300 people were of the strongest storms ever to hit the Pacific, killed, mostly by the storm surge. Subsequent caused massive devastation, affecting 188,000 research pointed to shortcomings at the ‘last mile’, people out of a total population of 272,000.5 including gaps in risk awareness, preparedness and Yet the number of fatalities was limited communication. As a consequence many people to 11.6 This was due to an effective early did not evacuate, or moved to unsafe places.10 warning system built on traditional knowledge and effective communications technology, In the light of this experience, when typhoon combined with disaster preparedness at the Hagupit (‘Ruby’) was about to strike in December local level.7 Updates and warnings were sent 2014 the authorities in the Philippines and by radio and SMS, enabling residents to trace their early warning partners made great efforts the path of the cyclone on maps printed in to raise awareness and drastically increased the every telephone book. Encouraged by the scale of preemptive evacuations. As a result 11 Government and relief groups, many people there were far fewer casualties (Table III-1). sought shelter in robust buildings such as In parallel, the Government also modified its schools and churches, while others hid in Tropical Cyclone Warning System to generate caves or in traditional, low and windowless simpler and more impact-based forecasts, thus ‘cyclone houses’.8 making the warning information more accessible to end users.12 Despite progress in a number of countries, there are still many gaps in early warning chains. Early warning – basic concepts Filling these will require substantial additional investment, particularly at the local level to cover Early warning has four main elements: risk the ‘last mile’ − though it could just as well be knowledge, monitoring and warning, dissemination called the ‘first mile’, given the importance of and communication, and response capability.13 An reaching the most vulnerable people who are early warning system with all these elements is usually at the forefront of any disaster. referred to as an ‘end-to-end’ system (Table III-2).

Table III-1 Evacuations and casualties in the Philippines

Year Name (international/local) Strength at landfall Pre-emptive evacuations Casualties 2012 Bopha/Pablo Category 5 41,608 1,901 2013 Haiyan/Yolanda Category 5 125,604 6,354 2014 Hagupit/Ruby Category 3 716,639 18 Source: Government of the Philippines, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

80 to be tested andrevised on a regular basis. the event ofan emergency.the event out the main tasks, roles andresponsibilities in standard procedures operating (SOPs) that spell coordination, requires system warning the early warnings. Given inter-agency theneedfor to issue official authorized should be one entity levels.national and local For each hazard, there of labourbetween multiple actors atregional, careful coordination andanefficientdivision bedifficult and time consuming −can requiring system warning aneffective early Developing Why dopeoplerespond-ornottowarnings? Research supportedbyESCAP hasshownthatpeoplearelikelytoactonwarninginformation whenthey: BoxIII-2 The fourelementsofanend-to-endearlywarningsystem Tab basics-ew.htm (accessed 19May 2015). Source Key questions Main activity Believeotherpeoplearealso doingit. • Havevalidationfrommultiplesources; • Believeintheirownabilitytocarryoutthetasks; • Areconvincedthattheseactionswillbeeffective; • Knowwhatspecificactionscanbetakento reducetheirrisks; • leIII-2 : Adapted from UNISDR:Warning. BasicsofEarly Available from http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/whats-ew/ widely available? risk mapsanddata trends? Are and are thepatterns well known?What and vulnerabilities Are thehazards assessments undertake risk collect dataand Systematically Risk knowledge 14 These SOPs need generated? timely warningsbe Can accurateand making forecasts? for basis scientific there asound monitored? Is parameters being Are theright services services early warning monitoring and Develop hazard Monitoring and Monitoring and warning management tools and these will continuemanagement toolsandthese will information providing more of the necessary Fortunately, are now scienceandtechnology corroborated from multiple sources (Box III-2). since toact people are on mostlikely warnings inthedissemination channels,of redundancy among multiple actors − with a high degree needsto becoordinatedinformation andshared to spread. and disinformation rumours of The flow from official and non-official can allow sources information. Unreliable or conflicting messages requirement andunambiguous A key isclear clear anduseable? warning information understood? Isthe the warningswell Are therisksand all thoseatrisk? Do warningsreach early warnings information and Communicate risk Dissemination and Dissemination and communication warnings? ready toreact prepared and use of? Are people knowledge made capacities and local tested? Are up todateand Are responseplans capabilities response and community Build national Response Response capability 81

CHAPTER 3 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

to improve (Figure III-1). In Asia and the An early warning system that covers multiple Pacific, regional trends suggest that such new hazards should be sufficiently flexible to allow technologies can significantly strengthen early for the appropriate timeframes for each type of warning systems but must be combined with hazard. Rapid onset disasters such as near-field people-centred approaches. tsunamis and flash floods only allow between 15 minutes and a couple of hours from detection The ultimate test of an early warning system to impact, so the warning system should be able to respond to imminent danger. Other hazards, is whether it provides timely and actionable such as cyclones and seasonal floods, may be information to all of the most vulnerable people detected days or even weeks in advance – allowing – including children, pregnant and lactating people to protect assets and livelihoods (Figure women, older persons, the sick and people III-2). With sufficient warning, businesses can with disabilities. For persons with disabilities, move productive assets to safe ground, and information should be provided in accessible households can shutter windows and reinforce formats. If such vulnerable groups are not rooftops. Given these varying needs, the warning adequately informed and supported, the system authorities need to carefully judge how to release as a whole must be judged to have failed. information − achieving the optimum balance between timeliness and accuracy. Figure III-1 Disaster forecasting − the current and likely future state of science

Ability to produce reliable forecasts Now (2014-2015) 2040 Space Magnitude Time Space Magnitude Time Geophysical hazards Earthquakes 2 1 1 3 2 1 Volcanoes 3 2 2 5 3 3 Landslides 2 2 1 3 3 2 Tsunamis 2 2 1 3 3 2 Hydrometeorological hazards 6 days ahead Storms 3 3 4 5 5 5 Floods 3 3 4 5 5 5 Droughts 5 5 5 5 5 5 Hydrometeorological hazards 6 months ahead Storms 2 2 2 3 3 3 Floods 2 2 2 4 4 4 Droughts 2 2 2 4 4 4 Source: Foresight Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers (2012) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London. Available from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/286476/12- 1289-reducing-risks-of-future-disasters-report.pdf Notes: Numbers indicate the ability to produce reliable forecasts on a scale from 1 (low) to 5 (high).

82 Lead timesandapplicationsofearlywarninginformation the victimsreceived atall. no warning inplace atthetime, system warning mostof over 230,000deaths. notsunamiearly With inAsiaandAfrica,14 countries andledto affected the 2004IndianOceantsunami which following region asawholewastransformed decades. the for warning Butthe status of early over several systems warning early developed A number ofAsia-Pacific have countries :Source Adapted from a figure in the Plan 2012-2015. Strategic Organization Meteorological World sys Fi St gureIII-2 a t t us of early warning ems in Predictions Forecasts Scenarios Warnings Guidance Watches Outlook Alerts Lead Time Weather Climate Variability Climate Change A sia and operations emergencyresponse ■ Early Warning & Minutes Hours t Days he Week contracts management planning preparedness ■ ■ ■ Insurance Inventory Sectoral P Weeks acific Months Conditions Intial Seasons etc.) warningsystems, fundsearly financing(Trust zoning investment&land &scenariobuilding ■ ■ ■ Government risk Infrastructure Strategic planning Years Pacific Disaster Report (APDR). Pacific This progress wasassessedinthe2012Asia- greater investment inprevention andmitigation. work andtriggering operational andtechnical in policies and budgets − stimulating extensive weeksonly later. And it led to major changes of theHyogo Framework ofAction (HFA) It had aprofound impact on the development The 2004tsunamiwasawatershedmoment. greater damage to property and livelihoods.greater damage toproperty astyphoons,such floodsandlandslides therefound had been more frequent disasters Decades Conditions Boundary negotiation ■ International policy Centuries Forcing Anthropogenic Uncertainty Forecast 15 Disaster Risk Applications Examples of The report report The Reduction (DRR) 83

CHAPTER 3 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development P ho t o UN

Devastation in Aceh, Indonesia, following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Yet in some subregions the death toll was and warning. But many countries still have gaps decreasing − as a consequence of better disaster in communication and response capacity. risk management, including investments in early warning systems and preparedness. However, the For all Asia-Pacific countries, a common report also identified continuing weaknesses in weakness is that early warning is seen primarily a number of countries with limited capacities as a science initiative. It can thus remain isolated and resources. from policy and decision-making in other areas, even in disaster management. As a result, there Since then there has been further progress in is often limited contact between forecasters the Asia-Pacific region. The technology for and disaster managers, and various sectors of assessing risks and detecting approaching threats the economy make limited use of the existing has reached a high degree of sophistication. But warning and risk information. again there are disparities: some countries have made great advances, but many others with fewer resources are lagging behind, and often Regional cooperation struggle to maintain their current early warning systems. The main obstacles to early warning Many hazards and disasters in Asia and the saving more lives are usually related to gaps in Pacific are cross-border. Asia-Pacific countries (1) ensuring fast and reliable dissemination of have therefore developed regional cooperation warnings to all concerned, and (2) building the mechanisms, notably for tsunamis and tropical knowledge and capacity of communities to act cyclones. Indeed overall there is a general trend appropriately. Of the four main components of towards strengthened regional and South-South early warning, the more advanced in Asia and cooperation as well as building international the Pacific are risk knowledge, and monitoring frameworks. 84 deep ocean tsunameters sharing data in near deep data ocean in tsunametersnear sharing tsunamigenic Indian Oceanbroadband seismometers detecting a result, between 2004 and2014, the number of throughsharing regional andglobal networks. As and in information systems tsunami observation There have alsobeenextensive investments in established national centres. tsunami warning around24 countries theIndianOceanhave Along withthedevelopment oftheIOTWS, two tothreeregional years. exercises every communication ayear, tests twice and full-scale to memberStates. There are also region-wide are responsible issuingtsunamibulletins for In theIOTWS, Australia, India and Indonesia operational in2011.(IOTWS) became which Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System was theestablishmentofIndianOcean a majormilestone ofregional cooperation oftheIndian Ocean tsunami,In the aftermath Mitigation System The IndianOcean Tsunami and Warning response. for and building capabilities services,and warning improving dissemination assessing risks, sustainable monitoring developing organizations. −in can also share expertise They and relevant regionalcountries and international moreachieve share if they the costs with other system, warning early example, for can butthey be unabletoafford acomprehensive tsunami members. would Ontheirown most countries make it more valuable all and sustainable for thebetter,the samesystem thiswill because from it. Indeed the more that use countries does notbenefitting prevent other countries a ‘public good’ –inthat its use by one country beconsidered can system warning A regional early III-3). real-time data grew from 13toover 140(Table 18 Over the sameperiod, Over the numberof 17 earthquakes and sharing near near andsharing earthquakes 16 1,000 lives peryear. the IOTWS save will atleast the next century ESCAPfor estimatedthaton average, over regional preparedness III-3). (Figure Astudy IOTWS represent amajorimprovement in resourcesthese new networked through the grew from to over 100. four Taken together, number of real-time coastal sea gauges level increased frompurposes to nine while the zero real-time tsunamiwarning andavailablefor of tropical cyclones andrelated hazards. of tropical cyclones improveprojects the understanding tofurther research original andpilot undertake the PTC andprofessionalcountries fields. The TCand across jointstrategies and developing capacities reductionhydrology and disaster risk −building thefieldsofmeteorology,also helped integrate warning.regional cooperation inearly have They strengthened their activities, about closer bringing Sea.Arabian 2005, Since both have expanded and covers theBay which ofBengal andthe (PTC) the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones emerging from the Western Pacific.is The other Typhoon covers storms Committee which (TC) the West Pacific). Oneisthe ESCAP/WMO from originate if they (known astyphoons addressing for mental platforms tropical cyclones The Asia-Pacific region alsohasintergovern- mechanisms warning cyclone Regional of a tsunamigenic earthquake. within 10-15 minutes the first tsunamibulletins high degree ofsophistication, issue and normally providers oftheIOTWS have alsoreached a in only seven minutes. seven in only warning, issue tsunami warnings and today can has remainedsystem a “gold standard” inearly Mitigation System. Establishedin1968, this by,supported thePacific Tsunami and Warning The IOTWS was on, modelled and initially 19 20 Since 2011, Since theservice

85

CHAPTER 3 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Table III-3 Development of IOTWS networks, 2004-2014

2004 2014 Broadband seismometers sharing data in near real- time 13 >140 Coastal sea level gauges sharing data in real-time and available for tsunami 4 >100 warning purposes Deep ocean tsunameters sharing data in near real- time and available for 0 9 warning purposes

Source: UNESCO, 2014.

Figure III-3 Evolution of the Indian Ocean Regional Tsunami Observation System 2004-2014

Broadband seismometers

Sea level gauges and tsunameters

These maps illustrate the improvements between 2004 to 2014 in the core seismic network and the core coastal sea-level station and deep ocean tsunameter networks. Developed as part of the IOTWS, these networks share data regionally and globally in near real time. Source: UNESCO, 2014. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. 86 and glacial lake outburst floods.and glacial lake outburst Asia),Asia and South-East landslides, flash floods floods (e.g. river-basin as transboundary South in hazards such for systems warning regional early in AsiaandthePacific for better arecalling otherhazards.gaps for Consequently, countries oftechnology,the availability there are significant tsunami and tropical cyclones, for especially and Despite progress systems, warning inregional early cooperationGaps inregional countries. 19 collaborating had and grown 13 member States to include building. capacity supporting By2015, RIMES and information warning ofearly application institution on focusing thegeneration and Asia (RIMES). This isanintergovernmental Warning Hazard Early and Africa for System Multi- established theRegional Integrated In 2009, from withsupport ESCAP, governments andAsia System Africa for IntegratedRegional Early Multi-Hazard Warning those with limited domestic capacity.especially with analysis,countries andtraining forecasting World Weather Watch Programme and support withinoperate the framework of the WMO’s centres inNew Delhi and Tokyo. These centres up by theregional meteorological specialized The activities of the PTC are backed TC and the Centres SpecializedMetrological Regional activities.training sharing,information research and analysis, and jointsessions,as periodic projects, technical issues such −covering cooperation long-term agreed they for which to establish amechanism held a joint session hosted by ESCAP during 2015,In February the TC andthePTC also take the form of dialogues and institutional ofdialogues andinstitutional also take theform hydrologyforecasting. and flood can Cooperation scenarios,solutions that coupleclimate river-basin asnestedmodelling innovations such including dataandknowledge,could involve sharing resilience isregional cooperation. cooperation Such onwarning itsown; togreater thekey disaster flood hazard,can ensure effective early nocountry nature basin of theriver Given thetransboundary the area is prone to floods. into ninelarge basins. river At thesametime, this natural tower’,‘water water feeds which dependon peoplein15countries 1.3 billion the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Atotal of basin floods stemming river from transboundary for warning regional cooperation inearly strengthened needfor There isaparticular regional mechanism. warning andconsolidatedneed to be re-energized into a hazards are transnational, frequently these efforts Mountain Development. basinflood river Since and the International Centre Integrated for PTC those fromnumber ofinitiatives including WMO, management approach. Therea have already been based onpartnerships an integrated flood flash floods warning system in the city of Cagayan of Cagayan system inthecity flash floods warning Also in the Philippines, there is an innovative systems. withexisting warning integrated of its kind in the Philippines, and has been Leyte.of Southern This was one ofthefirst Bernard intheprovince ofSaint municipality setup2012inthe wassuccessfully system (GIZ), Zusammenarbeit warning alandslide early fürInternationale from Gesellschaft Deutsche In thePhilippines, example, for withsupport upand replicated. bescaled of pilots that can For there have this purpose already been anumber landslides and flash floods. for systems warning on The region also needs to make greater efforts

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de Oro in Mindanao. This was set up with In Bangladesh, for example, the Government support from the Republic of Korea’s National partnered with RIMES to apply this innovation Disaster Management Institute following the and was able to increase the lead time for devastation caused by typhoon Washi in 2011. flood forecasting from three to ten days. Effective community-based flood early warning They combined meteorology, hydrology and systems have also been established successfully flood forecasting and developed a probabilistic in Nepal, by the Government and a wide range system based on climate modelling and water of partners participating in the Nepal Risk discharge in the Ganges River and Brahmaputra Reduction Consortium. These initiatives offer rivers. The forecasts are shared with decision important advances that could be shared and makers at national and district levels through further scaled up through regional cooperation. fax and e-mail, and with pilot communities through SMS and flag networks. This has vastly improved the ability of authorities and Developments in forecasting communities to take early action to protect lives and livelihoods. An evaluation of the project At the Third United Nations World Conference found that, in 2014 alone, the average household on Disaster Risk Reduction in March 2015, saved $472, with even higher savings recorded participants highlighted the need for impact- for households living from fishing, agriculture based forecasts and warnings, accompanied and livestock.23 This global-level innovation thus by specific recommendations for precautionary has the potential for replication elsewhere in action.21 End users too are increasingly seeking Bangladesh and in the Asia-Pacific region as downscaled, customized forecasts to guide local a whole. preparedness and mitigation. Strengthening national services For this purpose, Asia and the Pacific can take advantage of its strength as a hub for science, In 2011 RIMES and WMO, with financial innovation and good practice. This creates support from ESCAP, started a joint effort opportunities for using space technology, remote to strengthen the national meteorological and sensing and geographical information systems hydrological service (NMHS) in five high-risk for assessing and monitoring impending hazards. countries − Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, the Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region include: Maldives and Sri Lanka – and help them develop user-friendly forecasts. For each monsoon Climate model‐based seasonal hydrologic forecasting season there are biannual forums for forecast generators and users of the forecasts. In advance The region has been adopting global scientific of each monsoon forum, RIMES and WMO innovations such as climate model‐based seasonal work with the NMHS to develop the seasonal hydrologic forecasting. Initially developed in the forecast and related products, and to train users, United Kingdom, this model couples climate such as line ministries, local governments and scenarios, river basin hydrology and flood their partners. At the forums themselves, the forecasting.22 The resulting analysis is particularly users discuss the corresponding preparedness useful for hydrologic forecasting and thus also and mitigation measures. for flood early warnings.

88 • • apparent at thenational level. Trends include: highlighted above, improvements are also Beyond theprogress attheregional level and then shared with other countries. national meteorological andhydrological services, predictions are created few cost‐effectively by a ensuresthe numerical system that large‐scale invest inexpensive computing power. Instead, this way, national do notforecasters need to as such Vanuatu Islands. andtheSolomon In regional countries weather models toparticipating process’ toprovide guidancefrom globaland Project. The project uses a forecasting ‘cascading led Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration has shownZealand the value of the WMO- In thePacific, a group led of countries by New Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project training. upof such scaling the further in 2015, members recommended TC and PTC nationaltraining forecasters. At their joint session working in the offramework the WMO, are metrological centres inNew Delhi and Tokyo, RIMES. Inparticular, theregional specialized the respective umbrellas ofthe TC, and PTC of national forecasters,build the capacity under There to are alsomany other initiatives underway na this field. Pacific region aglobal hub of excellence in centres thatare helpingmaketheAsia- warning settingupstate-of-the-art include systems. warning in national early These have made countries major investments several 2004, nationalinvestments.Increasing Since promoted by theHFA andtheSendai management. Inlinewiththeapproaches community-based disaster risk Promoting t ional ini t ia t ives ives 24 24

• Tsunami route evacuation sign, Lanka Sri management (CBDRM), concept ofcommunity-baseddisasterrisk in the regionpartners have embraced the Framework, and anumberofcountries has worked with partners such as Mercy has worked such with partners and EnvironmentalMeteorology Monitoring example,for the National for Agency requirements.unique warning InMongolia, are alsomaking progress inaddressing their Addressing specific hazards. ESCAP Photo Nam. and the Philippines Viet asIndia, such incountries successfully Nepal, reduction,risk hasbeenimplemented which ‘owned’ disaster preparedness for and strategy appropriate andlocally that leads toalocally areas. process CBDRMisaparticipatory communities,in vulnerable incoastal especially 25 and implemented it andimplemented it Several countries countries Several

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Corps and RIMES to strengthen early and the 2011 Queensland floods, warning warning systems for weather-related hazards operations have now been standardized. following the dzud26 in 2010, in which 8.4 • Shanghai, China – An effective multi-hazard million head of livestock died.27 With the early warning system provides alerts on goal of reducing the future impact of dzud tropical cyclones, storms surges, and extreme and other weather-related hazards, RIMES temperatures, as well as on floods, diseases, provides daily weather information for herder physical damage and other impacts.28 communities in three pilot sites in Arkhangai • India – The Government has integrated the province. The forecast and the interpretation early warning systems for tsunamis and storm are passed on to the communities via a local surges, as a step towards bringing together meteorological office. Local NGOs assist the warning information for a wider range of communities in assessing the potential impact hazards. of severe weather events on livelihood systems and designing mitigation and coping strategies. One of the problems in developing multi-hazard systems is that responsibilities can be distributed across different departments and ministries. For Multi-hazard systems example, many Asia-Pacific countries have already set up warning systems that are common for Each hazard has its own specific warning most hydrometeorological hazards. However, it requirements and lead times. But where possible, can be difficult to combine these systems with early warnings for individual hazards should those for geophysical hazards which are often be integrated into a multi-hazard system. This managed by other ministries. One exception brings benefits in terms of economies of scale, is in Myanmar, where responsibilities for both sustainability and efficiency. And since a multi- types of hazards rest in the Department for hazard system will be activated more regularly Meteorology and Hydrology, thus opening up it is likely to be better maintained and more opportunities for developing a truly integrated readily available for hazards such as tsunamis warning system in the future. Other examples that occur infrequently. Such integrated systems are Indonesia and Malaysia. may also help the public better understand the range of risks they face and the need to prepare With financial support from ESCAP, the TC and to respond to warnings. and the PTC have developed a manual for multi-hazard SOPs. It is based on research In line with the vision of the Sendai Framework, from 13 countries and outlines ways of a number of cities and countries have moved integrating the procedures for multiple hazards, to multi-hazard systems. improving operations and achieving synergies • Australia – The multi-hazard system, which is by combining systems. The manual is expected operated by the Bureau of Meteorology, covers to be rolled out in 2016, by the TC, the severe storms, tropical cyclones, hazardous PTC and their member States. A number winds, heat, fires, flooding, tsunamis, and of countries have also taken up new tools marine and aviation hazards. Driven by the and standards such as the Common Alerting experiences of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami Protocol (Box III-3).

90 and prevention. assistance, wasspenton disasterpreparedness aroundand only 10per cent ofhumanitarian than 1per cent oftotal development assistance, inAsia and thePacific thelast decade Over less since2003. have notincreased substantially prevention and preparedness remain and uneven financial investments. Donor resourcesfor disaster reduction by hasnotbeenmatched corresponding commitmentGreater todisasterrisk political ratio of between four and36, ofbetween four ratio withsubstantial couldhave abenefit-cost countries developing inin hydrometeorological services warning According to World Bankresearch, investments hydrometeorologicalfor asfloods. hazards such outweighed by the economic benefits especially Often, are systems warning thecostsofearly warning early of Economic benefits countries.concentrated on afew reduction disasterrisk for also remains heavily F inancing Common AlertingProtocol :Source WMO the disseminationandconsistencyofalerts. warning authoritiestotargetalertsageographicallydefinedarea.Assuch,itcansignificantlyimprove that the intended recipients are alerted by one or more communication channels. The CAP also allows With theCAP,asinglealertcantriggerwidevarietyofpublicwarningsystems,increasinglikelihood TV, radio,theinternetandSMS. message tobedisseminatedsimultaneouslyovermanydifferentcommunicationssystems,suchas The CAPisadigitalformatforemergency alerts coveringanyhazard. It allowsforaconsistentalert and Thailandand,withsupportfromESCAP,isbeingintroducedintheMaldivesPhilippines. Alerting Protocol (CAP). This is being implemented in a number of countries, including China, India, Japan increasingly deployingglobalstandardsandinnovativetechnologies.OnesuchstandardistheCommon In theireffortstoestablishmulti-hazardearlywarningsystems,countriesinAsiaandthePacificare BoxIII-3 . 30 Generally, donor funding 29 29 collective approach. be more totakearegional economical ora as tsunamisintheIndianOcean, it would low-frequency,for high-impact hazards, such (Table andfloods as storms III-4). However, high-frequency,for low-impact hazards, such investments andnational systems warning inlocal suggests considerable economic benefitsfrom This isconfirmed by research by RIMES which leadwarning times. and to increase more accurate anduser-friendly staff ofNMHSs, inorderforecasts tomake the technical required is inpeople –specifically over alonger return period. Asstated above, an economiceven benefits would beconsiderable five years but every assumed amajorcyclone be areturn of$41inbenefits. warning,and lead-times cyclones for there would $1invested inincreasing theaccuracy every for In Bangladesh, example, for RIMES that found agriculture and energy. for benefits weather-sensitive as sectorssuch 32

31 Much of the investment oftheinvestment Much 33 This study study This 91

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Table III-4 Cost effectiveness of early warning

Country Hazard Benefit-cost ratio Bangladesh Cyclones 40.9 Sri Lanka Floods 0.7 Bangladesh Floods 447.1 Thailand Floods 1.8 Viet Nam Hydro-meteorological 10.4

Source: Subbiah, Bildan and Narasimhan, 2008.

initiative in the same country to increase the donor funds, is through pooled funding. Multiple lead time for flood forecasting up to ten days partners can coordinate their investments and has also shown promising economic benefits. thus reduce the risk of duplication. One example, established after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, For the Indian Ocean region as a whole is the ESCAP Multi-donor Trust Fund for the greatest potential economic benefits from Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness forecasting would be for cyclone, floods and (Box III-4), which applies a regional approach volcanic eruptions. This is because, except for focused on South-South cooperation. An flash floods, these hazards can be predicted independent evaluation found that the fund had fairly accurately – making it possible to evacuate helped significantly strengthen early warning people and reduce damage to property and 34 systems, especially by helping establish the livelihoods. The benefits can be lower from IOTWS and RIMES, and also by providing tsunamis which, although they can be very dedicated support to high-risk, low-capacity destructive occur less frequently. countries.36 These benefits will only be realized, however, An example of a large-scale pooled fund is if the investments are well directed.35 A World the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Bank report cautions against over-reliance on Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). By the end expensive technologies with high operating and of 2013, GFDRR’s global portfolio consisted of maintenance costs. Instead, the report suggests 37 addressing practical needs – such as estimating 226 grants worth $156 million. This included and calibrating models, carrying out hazard 45 grants worth $34.8 million in East Asia analysis, digitizing past data and improving data and the Pacific, and 30 grants financed with from ground observations. $13.6 million in commitments in South Asia. Among the valuable early warning activities Innovative funding models supported at the country level were participatory risk mapping in Indonesia, integrated flood risk Given the resource constraints, the best way management in the Philippines, and community to maximize the impact of finance, especially resilience in Viet Nam.

92 systems, infrequent for hazards such especially to question thevalue ofrelatively expensive and,competing priorities over time, may come issustainability.systems have Governments many warning investmentA major concern for inearly Sustainability warning. areasmain focus is early and implementingpartners. Oneofthethree management between donors in disasterrisk regions collaboration for −providing a forum Germany, AsiaandthePacific andother together ofstakeholdersfrom awiderange ofGermany.Government The initiative brings by from GIZ with financial support the Federal Disaster Risk Management. This iscoordinated multiple actors istheGlobalInitiative on promotes coordination among andsynergies Another innovative pooled funding modelthat warning productsandservicesespeciallytolow-capacitycountries. to theestablishmentofaregionalwarningsystemfortsunamisandprovisioncost-effective million, directlybenefitting19countries.Inparticular,theTrustFundhasmadeimportantcontributions As ofJuly2015,theTrustFundhadapproved26projectswithacombinedbudgetapproximately$13.7 ESCAP Multi-donorTrustFundforTsunami,DisasterandClimatePreparedness The strategyoftheTrustFundhasthreemainpillars: of anintegratedregionalwarningsystemcomprisinganetworkcollaborativecentres. capacity gapsthroughregionalandSouth-Southcooperation,sharingofresourcesthedevelopment typhoons and storm surges, while applying a regional approach. It contributes to the narrowing of The TrustFundsupportsthestrengtheningofearlywarningforcoastalhazardssuchastsunamis, to includesmallislanddevelopingStatesinthePacific. a focusonend-to-endearlywarningforcoastalhazards.In2015,thegeographicscopewasexpanded thematic scopeoftheTrustFundtoincludeoveralldisasterandclimatepreparedness,whileretaining Asian countries.In2010,followinganindependentreview,thememberStatesandESCAPexpanded Its originalmissionwastosupporttsunamiearlywarningsystemsinIndianOceanandSouth-East The TrustFundwasestablishedin2005followingthedevastationwroughtbyIndianOceantsunami. BoxIII-4 III. Specificcountryneeds;and, II. Regionalintergovernmentalmechanisms; I. Civil societyinnovationsandbusinesssectorinitiatives. the IOTWS was approximately $90 million. andmaintain the totalannualcosttooperate and Indonesia andtheirpartners. Asof2014, byborne thegovernments ofAustralia, India The initial investment was $300million, mostly and long-term policies. their financial commitment inlegal frameworks have recommended thatgovernments enshrine members are taking amulti-hazard approach and To maketheIOTWS more sustainablethe Sustainability is a priority for theIOTWS. for isapriority Sustainability reducenot only costs butimprove performance. human resources III-4). (Figure Integration can and beshared technology that can −both for hazards, example, for have many components geophysical and hydrometeorological for systems be demonstrated more regularly. warning Early build multi-hazard whosevaluecan systems as tsunamis. For thisreason to itisimportant 38 39 39

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Figure III-4 Potential integration of tsunami and hydrometeorological warning systems

Integrating tsunami and hydrometeorological early warning systems into one multi-hazard system brings potential synergies and economies of scale, both in the human resource and the system components. Human resources Systems Integration of tsunamiIntegration and hydrometeorological of tsunami and hydrometeorological subsystems: subsystems: Integration of tsunamiIntegration and hydrometeorological of tsunami and hydrometeorological subsystems: subsystems: Human resource componentHuman resource component System component System component

Tsunami subsystemTsunami subsystemHydrometeorologicalHydrometeorological subsystem subsystem Tsunami subsystemTsunami subsystemHydrometeorologicalHydrometeorological subsystem subsystem

Source: A.R. Subbiah, Lolita Bildan and Ramraj Narasimhan, 2008. “Background Paper on Assessment of the Economics of Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction.” Paper submitted to the World Bank Group Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). To further strengthen sustainability, it is weather forecasts and fishing zone advisories important to avoid that early warning is seen as enable fishermen to reduce their exposure to a science project that is taking place in isolation hazards, as well as cut their fuel consumption, as from society as a whole. Instead, whenever they spend less time searching for fish. Targeted possible, early warning information should weather and ocean forecast services have also be made relevant to supporting livelihoods in provided benefits for other economic activities multiple sectors of the economy, as seen in the such as desalination and ornamental fishing.40 example above regarding the monsoon forums. In this way, the early warning system can become an enabler for sustainable development, Unmet needs in Indian Ocean with clear economic benefits. Going forward, and South-East Asian countries linking the early warning system to the needs of end users in various economic sectors can New research by ESCAP highlights the unmet thus help make the case for sustainable funding needs in early warning across Indian Ocean for early warning. and South-East Asian countries.41 Although it focuses on coastal hazards, the findings, outlined In India, a good example is the information below, illustrate a state of affairs common across provided to small-scale fishermen by the National the Asia-Pacific region with respect to the four Centre for Ocean Information Services. These elements of early warning.

94 scientists and disaster managers. is thus theessential gaps tobetween bridge government officials andthepopulation. It disastermanagers, tolocal especially other ofcommunicating, ways user-friendly develop For knowledge dissemination, task isto the key communities data. local ingathering to ensure ownership it is vital to involve local hazards andvulnerabilities. For and this purpose processes nature to understand thedynamic of ratheras continual but seen asone-off efforts production maps should not however ofsuch be hazards. transboundary for maps including The ofregional-levelis alsoalack multi-hazard risk risk at reduction andpreparedness.efforts There guidelocal that can scales mapsatsmaller risk and vulnerability, and hazard andtodevelop to improve on hazards, data gathering exposure III-5). For generation, shouldbe thepriority (Box information and dissemination ofrisk There for both the are gaps generation significant Risk knowledge Main unmetneedsinriskknowledge Knowledge generation Knowledge dissemination BoxIII-5 Improving • Producingmorehazardandriskmapsdowntoscalesof1:5,000/1:10,000 whenpossible. • Improvinginternationalexchangeonassessmentmethodologies andharmonization. • Including • Reviewing • Assessing • Improving • Communicatingtheinherentuncertainties inriskinformationtotheendusers. • include bothtsunamiandstormsurge. bathymetry) and considering developing multi-hazard maps for“bigoceanwaves”,whichcould as indigenousknowledgeandcommunity-basedmethods (e.g.crowdsourcing). level riseandseverewinds),inadditiontodisasterinformation parameters. friendly waysofpresenting datatothistargetgroup. warning. climate data coastal the the risk gathering sharing change inundation, information of on related good hazards, storm needs practice information exposure surge of examples local and in themselves be damaged during disasters. be damagedthemselves during In 2013 systems,warning as weather such stations, may Another ofearly problem isthatvitalparts with this. struggle can advanced countries Even the most technologically updateSOPsand frequently levels. atvarious andtimeliness of theinformation,the accuracy For tobalance itisimportant issuing warnings in animal behaviour or vegetation. aschanges such indicators with traditional risk example by data complementing technological make avaluablecontribution for – toocan andexpertise.to information Communities them better offer access can cooperation – which from benefit greatly can countries regional Such to take advantage of theseadvances (Box III-6). have limited capacity countries of least developed networks.to enhance observation Butanumber advances inscience and technology applied new Many Asia-Pacific have successfully countries services Monitoring andwarning and disaster tsunami risk vulnerability assessments of educational managers hazard using maps (priority and materials scientific (including developing on precipitation, methods related more more to detailed as user- early well sea 95

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Box III-6 Main unmet needs in monitoring and warning services

• Balancing the accuracy and the timeliness of alerts in order to avoid many false alarms. • Incorporating information from citizens for warning purposes. • Improving rain forecasting to enhance the reliability of the forecasting of fresh water coastal floods. • Further developing and expanding the coverage of the direct observations of wave heights of storm surges, tsunamis and swells (e.g. using coastal radar, pressure-type sensors, satellite- based altimeters, observation of cyclone by airplanes). • Improving indirect methods of tsunami observation using more specific earthquake data (e.g. focal mechanisms) with GPS data and faster computers. • Regularly updating international/regional SOPs that are in place for status communication and information on hazardous events (probably every five years and after significant events). • Formulating national SOPs in countries where these are missing, and implementing existing SOPs more diligently in many countries.

typhoon Haiyan partially or completely destroyed have large and diverse populations, with a variety 12 weather stations in the Philippines – at an of languages. estimated replacement cost of $1.63 million.42 Post-disaster needs assessments and recovery An important way of reaching many people plans should thus incorporate reconstruction quickly is through the broadcast media. These needs for damaged early warning systems. should be incorporated into warning chains − both to take advantage of their reach and Communication and dissemination to ensure that they do not spread inaccurate or exaggerated information. In two projects Warning information and alerts should be supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for formulated such that the end user understands Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness, them and knows how to respond. In some cases, the Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union has the message may have to be very direct, such developed guidelines and other warning tools for as “Evacuate now to save your life”. In others, broadcasters. However, in order to be effective the message may be subtler and contain less in an emergency the broadcast media need a urgency. Either way, a common pitfall is that formal role in the warning chain – established the warning information becomes too technical through SOPs. and complicated. A related issue is the contribution of social In many countries, there are also gaps in media – which can disseminate accurate warnings communications channels and networks (Box but may spread false alarms, rumours and III-7). As a result, vulnerable and remote misinformation. Rather than let misinformation populations may not receive warnings. This may pass unchallenged, the authorities are usually be a matter of geography as for small island better off monitoring the social media and developing States. In other cases the barriers themselves using these platforms to reach the may be social – in countries, for example, that public with the correct information.

96 injury asresidents fled.injury Anger led residents to went off causing masspanicand by mistake 2007, inAceh, tsunami siren Indonesia alocal and reduce offuture thecredibility warnings. In breed mistrust, dilutetheimpact ofofficial alerts publicconfidence, undermine thatcan alarms prevent panicandfalse diverse can channels Having reliable corroborated information through Main unmetneedsincommunicationanddissemination BoxIII-7 Investing • Integrating • Reviewing • from theESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, DisasterandClimatePreparedness. Cover page booklet ofeducational on tsunami, the1945Makran produced by UNESCO withfinancialsupport found tobetoocomplicatedorthelanguageisnotwelladjustedtargetpopulation. alerts areavailablebuthavetobeusedinamorewidespreadmanner. authorities duringemergenciesarerecommended. UNESCO chain and additional and discouraging the broadcast adjusting effort unauthorized warning media, in reaching including messages, populations warnings. TV and alert There thus needs to be constant attention to mile and people are of acting on capable them. Warnings are reach useful ifthey only thelast Response capability unnecessary vulnerabilities and long-term risk. vulnerabilities unnecessary system,later disable thetsunami warning causing at radio, Short levels the ‘last more and and mile’. thoroughly frequent educational Technical updates into materials means the from early of if spreading they warning warning are 43

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the linkages between the warning system and ad-hoc and not linked to the revision of SOPs, the communities at risk (Box III-8). Risk maps leading to missed opportunities for learning and and contingency plans, for example, require for system improvement. continuous updating to match changes in population and land use patterns. Proper signage Cross-cutting issues and evacuation centres need to be maintained. These activities should be accompanied by Beyond the unmet needs within the four elements sustained education and outreach to maintain of early warning, there are a number of cross- risk awareness among local communities and cutting issues (Box III-10). Most of the gaps government officials. here – such as improving communication among key actors, participation of local communities Regional warning mechanisms also need to and performance assessments – relate to good be tested down to the local level (Box III-9). governance. Countries generally have national Currently, local exercises and drills tend to be legislation on specific mandates for early warning

Box III-8 Main unmet needs in response capability

• Identifying evacuation routes and evacuation centres with proper signs. • Conducting frequent drills at the community level and simulation exercises for disaster managers (e.g. once a year). • Ensuring that disaster managers pay attention to the type of expected hazard and the evacuation routes and places that are appropriate for the respective hazard. • Designing and constructing evacuation centres to withstand common hazards (e.g. severe winds or ground shaking).

Box III-9 Testing warning systems, end to end

A broader challenge in Asia and the Pacific is to ensure that regional systems are tested end to end. The IOTWS, for example undergoes communications tests every six months and large-scale exercises every two to three years. In general, recent tests and exercises have been successful and shown that the regional system performs well but have not been linked effectively with local-level drills and exercises. At the 2014 region-wide exercise (IOWave14) only three out of 24 participating countries (India, the Seychelles and Timor-Leste) conducted public evacuation drills. As a result, the ability of the regional warning system to trigger local life-saving action was not fully tested. The 10th Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the IOTWS in 2015 recommended future region-wide exercises to make such public evacuation drills a priority.

Source: IOC-UNESCO, 2015. Exercise Report, IOWave 14.

98 and services must beconsidered publicgoods and services to bereached by 2030, systems warning early For Framework theglobal target ofthe Sendai people with disabilities. for warning the development of guidelines on early ofanemergency.case ESCAP hassupported who areto require likely assistance in the extra disabilities, pregnant women andolder persons, groups vulnerable as those with such especially considerations theneedsof andprovide for people, must systems reflect warning gender early To meetthe needsofthe mostvulnerable and coordination. resources commitment to ensure the necessary andinstitutional will also tobuildthepolitical roles andresponsibilities. Butitisimportant F u Main unmetneedsregardingcross-cuttingissues BoxIII-10 t ure priori Improving • Exploringmechanisms onhowtoimprovethesustainabilityofearlywarningsystems. • Developing • Given • Improving • Ensuringadequatein-countryinformationsharingandcoordination. • Addressing • Improvingtheparticipationoflocalcommunitiesinearlywarning. • Integrating • in amulti-hazardapproachcouldhelpfacilitatethis. the earlywarningsystem.Internationalstandardsprovingcommonalertlevelsandcolourcodes private companies. as pregnantwomenandolderpersonsalsoneedtobetakenintoaccount. them inpreparations.Genderissuesaswellthespecialneedsofothervulnerablegroupssuch those receptiveimpairedwholivealoneandneedspecialarrangementstoalertthemassist currently onlydealwithonehazardtype. information (e.g.communities,businesses,politicians). systems (e.g.withsuccessindicators). growing the cost-benefit various and the t ies communication international warning testing early 44 analysis different warning needs migration between of of systems approaches people early and technicians/scientists with warning, to tourism, establish for 4. 3. 2. 1. Recommendations: an accelerated recovery.preparing for building resilience, and minimizinglossoflife asawhole− have society highreturns for financed by publicinvestment. available and adequately that should bewidely disabilities

chain. warning the broadcast media into the early the peopleatrisk, by integrating including effective communicationchannels with Seek accordingly.products and services information, ofwarning types andtailor specific needsoftheendusersdifferent Ensure are thatforecasters mindfulofthe (‘the last mile’). the response requirements level atthelocal hazard and people-centred, keeping inmind multi- systems warning tomakeearly Strive and decision-making. public good’ intonational planning, policy the conceptIntegrate of as a warning ‘early assessing especially integrating multi-hazard and the for older and non-permanent performance political other persons, systems, groups decision e.g. as 45 of Such investments investments Such many residents early using by makers identifying systems warning the into and risk 99

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5. Link SOP development/revision with 7. Concentrate external assistance on low- operational tests, including local evacuation capacity, high-risk countries. drills. 6. Strengthen regional cooperation in early Early warning systems are essential for reducing warning, going beyond coastal hazards to disaster risks and building greater resilience. But include hazards such as transboundary river they should be part of coherent framework for basins floods. disaster risk reduction and have clear institutional arrangements.

100 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

National Meteorological andHydrological Services Deltares, 2014. Xing, Wood andMa, 2015. United Nations NewsCentre, 2015. Weinstein, 2014. Teisberg, 2011. UNESCO, 2014. generate tsunamis. can along plateboundaries, majorsubduction zone which Tsunamigenic refers to those earthquakes, common ESCAP, 2010. ESCAP andUNISDR, 2012. ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, 2015. ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and WMO/ UNISDR, 2006. WMO, 2015b. Guardian,The 2015. GIZ, 2014. with astorm. pressureatmospheric changesandwindassociated A ‘storm surge” oftheseaasaresult isarising of Coates andFeast, 2015. Australian RedCross, 2015. Vanuatu, 2015b. OCHA, 2015c. Group, Insurance Zurich 2014. UNDP, 2010a. World Bank, 2010b. IFRC, 2013. Endnotes 30 29 28 27 26 25 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31

Ibid. Ibid. Kellett andCaravani,Kellett 2013. Golnaraghi, 2012. Council Meeting, Bangkok, Thailand, 29May 2014. Priorities”, presentation given atthe6thRIMES Mongolia, system: warning and Status “Early andEnvironment of Meteorology Monitoring Erdenebat,Eldev-Ochir National for Agency from ordirectly thecold. starvation a large die,which number of livestock from primarily Dzud isaMongoliansevere for winterin term ADPC, 2006. United Nations, 2015. ADPC, GAATES andABU, 2014. Pearson, 2012. 2014. April Post-Haiyan Mission tothePhilippines, Expert fromReport ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee ESCAP, 2015g. India, 2012. Jaksa, Kumar and Wandono, 2014. Available from https://www.gfdrr.org/our-portfolio Aysan, 2011. World Bank, 2010b. Teisberg and Weiher, 2009. Subbiah, BildanandNarasimhan, 2008. Hallegatte, 2012. Chapter1ofthispublication. See 101

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102 NDRCC 4 RIGHT RIGHT right Informa time people,

tion, 103

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CHAPTER 4 Right information, right people, right time

“We must address gaps in our knowledge if we are to design policies to avert, or at least mitigate, the impact of this and future crises. We must obtain real-time data that can be easily analyzed across sectors and address the policy questions that need answering. We must further improve our methodologies....The voices of the vulnerable should compel us to act with urgency.”

Voices of the Vulnerable, p.4.1

A critical part of disaster risk management is managing the flow of information. Getting the right information to the right people at the right time saves lives and reduces losses, while also strengthening people’s resilience to disasters. Some Asia-Pacific countries now have state-of-the-art disaster information management systems, but others have major gaps in data and analysis.

This chapter presents the case for effective national or regional level.4 Even when they information management in two broad sections. have access to the data, they may not be able The initial sections focus on ‘soft’ issues, including to use it.5 data, modelling and decision support. Subsequent sections cover emerging ICT technologies and Right people the need to build critical ‘hard’ information infrastructure. Many people are involved in disaster management – at the international, regional, national and Right information local levels, each with their own mandates, priorities and areas of interest. Organizations Nowadays for disaster risk management there and governments have attempted to take stock are many more sources of information, with of the various actors. In India, for example, the multiple global and local data sets, some free Government publishes a ‘Directory of institutions and some commercial. Often these originate and resource persons in disaster management’, in the developed countries. In the US, for and in Indonesia, the Government publishes example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric the ‘Profile and directory: disaster risk reduction Administration has made earth observation organisations in Indonesia’.6 There are also data more accessible to the public.2 Other US directories at the international level, maintained, organizations will also release data on request for example, at preventionweb.net.7 for purposes of disaster risk management.3 Some institutions are both users and producers Nevertheless range and coverage of these data sets of disaster risk knowledge and they differ greatly are limited and governments in many countries in knowledge and capacity.8 Given their diversity, do not have access to good information at the there are often problems of coordination. Disaster

104 technologies. along andinnovative withmobileapplications andgeospatial information, imagery satellite using respond can Management quickly Agency countries. IntheUSFederal Emergency differences anddeveloping between developed Information managementpracticesforunderstanding disasterrisk three weeks, tosixweeks. orfour 48 hours, upto72hours, one week, two to disaster, example, for thiscouldbewithin12- considerably. a after orimmediately During vary will appropriate timethoughthatperiod on atthe disastersshouldarrive Information Right time there iscoordination between them. actors inorder needinformation to act andthat assume that all management often frameworks it. orknow information howget to act timely on and many communities donot know where to countries, however, is much information scarcer years. flow information couldtakeplaceover many post-disaster phase, better’ back for ‘building the environment. − knowing what is going on in the immediate toimprove is important ‘situational awareness’ Figure 13 For effective information management, it 11 Again, however, there are considerable IV-1 12 14 In many Asia-Pacific developing

-Pro -Ge H a Pre-d b z os a a How muchis Asse b rd Ex p i l at risk? , a i i s

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t n m a a u e e p p re r R e ra p p n ro ro t b i Unde s i a a l k i c t 10 c 9 y h h , For the r s ta -R (d -M ndi L D H e a o (Pa e m c i o s s a o w s a a s rd ng Disa

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n re citizens and communities.citizens of impact, andrecommend action businesses, for foresight, toidentifythetimingandpathways analysis, knowledge GISmapping andlocal and data with those from other sources, historical and then combine these data sets andanalysis can fromget the basic information They global are anddependabledata. basedon systematic models andcomprehensive impact profiles that Decision makersneedprecise disasterrisk p “understanding disaster risk”. “understanding theimplementation oftheFrameworkfor is the peopleby 2030.” action priority The first andassessments to information disaster risk and systems warning to multi-hazard early increase of and access the availability Reduction sets as one ofits targets “Substantially FrameworkThe Sendai Disaster for Risk exposure IV-1). (Figure Inthepre-disaster phase the interaction between hazard, and vulnerability understanding of disaster ‘risk’ involves –which in theregion withthegrowing have evolved management practicesDisaster information I was

t p l t s n o i n a n ) s s r d c g s s t fo s ) st a er Risk c r t mat ic An -Pro -D o es n likely tobelost D w in thefuture? H u (F b i s s a n a o u a c l sca b w

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105

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

technical staff can use probabilistic modelling satellite images, with socioeconomic indicators and geospatial approaches. In the post-disaster and detailed census and survey data to create a phase, they can also use field-based methods more comprehensive assessment. This information to estimate damage and losses. can feed into a framework that takes account of structural and non-structural factors (Figure Pre-disaster risk assessment IV-2). This can facilitate risk-sensitive decision- making and strengthen risk governance. It can It is important to prevent development investment also be used for cost-benefit assessments that and activities that exacerbate existing risks or can be embedded in comprehensive long-term create new risks. Pre-disaster risk assessment, or planning processes. to be more precise, the use of information in ‘normal’ times, is thus needed to generate risk A number of countries have carried out pre- awareness for development planning purposes. disaster risk assessments. Vanuatu, for example, This assessment can guide DRR policies, has combined data on earthquakes and tropical strategies and investment programmes. cyclones with information on exposure and vulnerability and then used a probabilistic risk Pre-disaster assessments will involve both assessment model to estimate total average annual qualitative and quantitative methods. The losses (Figure IV-3). This was used to identify qualitative approach is useful as an initial high-risk areas, for appropriate development screening process. Typically this will combine plans and interventions. hazard maps with qualitative judgments of Figure IV-3 vulnerability and exposure to build a simple risk matrix. A multi-hazard risk map in Vanuatu

Quantitative methods combine data from multiple layers of geospatial data including Figure IV-2 Conceptual framework for disaster information management

Disaster Information Management

Disaster Risk Management R i s k

Risk Assessment G o ve r g n i t Non-structural Structural n a a n ce

up d Risk transfer

& Codes Emergency &

Standard R

ng planning i i sk r Reinforcing

o Awareness/ t training Protective measures c o on i Early warning m m m k un i s

i Total average annual loss (million US$) R

ca t 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.5 0.5-0.75 0.75-1 1-5 10.73 i

Cost-benefit Assessment o n Source: Pacific Catastrophe Risk and Financing Initiative – Country Risk Reduction, Management and Resilience Risk Profile Vanuatu. Available from http://pcrafi.sopac.org. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance Source: Concept from Van Westen, 2013. by the United Nations. 106 Multi-hazard riskmappinginthePhilippines acceptance by the United Nations. :Disclaimer or andnamesshown official endorsement and thedesignationsThe boundaries used on thismapdonotimply on and the Impact ofthe Bahol Earthquake Typhoon Yolanda on Building, Washington, DC, World Bank). ofPublic Works Department DPWH(Philippines Source: and andHighways World Bank, Investigation Report 2014–Field assessors, between risk of information managers, an interactive two-way process with an exchange The production shouldbe risk information of Customizing information IV-4).speeds (Figure accordinginto three zones toexpectedwind expected. For typhoons, isdivided thecountry 4,seismic zone where highground motion is zones. intofour the country Mostlandisin Codedivides theNationalearthquakes Structural more andtyphoons. resistant toearthquakes For information, tomakebuildings inthiscase Philippines has also used risk multi-hazardThe Figure IV-4 20 10 12 14 16 18 o 6 8

E o o o o o o o 118 essentially thesame5thed.(2001)and6th(2010) Seismic zonationmapinNSCP 4thed.(1992,1996) o 120 Earthquakes o 122 o 20.20 40.04 legend ZoneCoefficient 124 o 126 o

E 20 10 12 14 16 18 o 6 8 E o o o o o o o jointly by thepublicsectorandprivate jointly insurance. haveThese schemes beenoperating example, has since the 1960sprovided earthquake is insurance. The Japanese Government, for information disaster risk usefor One important in isindicated information Table IV-1. specific purposes.data for range The of potential need more andstatistical detailedinformation will government staffinlocal while technical might needsimplemapsofneighbourhoods information.customized Thus the public general businesses, orgovernments requires organizations of thesestakeholders, whetherindividuals, interested groups and thegeneral public. Each V =55m/s(200kph) ZONE II Wind speed and the path of typhoon speed and the path oftyphoon Wind V =35m/s(125kph) ZONE III Haiyan V =70m/s(250kph) ZONE I 107

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Table IV-1 Information needs of different stakeholders

Stakeholder Purpose Information General public General information on risks Basic WebGIS application on which they can over large areas overlay the location of major hazard types with high-resolution imagery or topographic maps Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of neighbourhood with risk class, buildings, evacuation routes, and other features Businesses Investment policies and location General information about hazards and risks in planning both graphical and map format Technical staff of (local) Land use regulation / zoning Maps and simple legends in three classes: authorities construction restricted, construction allowed, further investigation required Building codes Maps indicating the type of buildings allowed (building type, number of floors) Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities and possible consequences Environmental Impact Maps and possible loss figures for future Assessment scenarios Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web based information in both maps and graphical forms Decision makers / local Decision-making on risk Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, authorities reduction measures F-N curves, maps Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future scenarios Strategic environmental General statistical information for administrative assessment units NGOs Influence political decisions This can vary from simple maps to web-based in favour of environment and applications, depending on the objectives sustainable development Scientists / technical staff Hazard information exchange WebGIS applications where they can access of hazard data producers to public and other agencies the basic information Exchange of basic information Spatial data infrastructure / clearing house for for hazard and risk exchanging information assessment Insurance Industry Development of insurance Loss exceedance curves of economic losses policies Media Risk communication to public Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate the problem Source: Van Westen, 2013.

108 National seismicmapforJapan Map. IV-5 Figure hazard shows anearthquake since 2009tocreate theNational Hazard Seismic hasbeenused,This information for example, by the United Nations. official endorsement orused on acceptance this mapdo not imply :Disclaimer andnamesshown and the designations The boundaries Disaster Prevention, Japan, 2009. :Source and National Science Research Earth Institutefor time of day and population density. land cover, andage thestructure ofbuildings, source faults, ofearthquake geometry of types magnitude ofearthquakes, the place ofoccurrence, thepotential includes using relevant data –which of specific risk regions the potential earthquake Insurance”. For have they evaluated thispurpose sector, underthe Concerning Earthquake “Law Figure Low Intensity HighIntensity IV-5 Hazard intensity map Hazard intensity 16

national-level core-geospatial dataat1:50,000 form.well astemporal The databaseincludes specific data, data in spatial as anddynamic usescore which data, scales varying hazard- ofdataat isaGIS-basedrepository which National Management Emergency Database for (Box levels IV-1).district Similarly, India hasa atnational, system tier information provincial and Indonesia, example, for hasan actionable multi- systems. information multi-tier disasterrisk A numberofAsia-Pacific have these countries of more than 1:2,000(Table IV-2). level, use a scale can actionable information risk 1:5,000. For project implementation at the field from 1:1,000,000to vary can thescale levels orprovincial municipality at thecommunity than1:1,000,000, smaller mapping scale while ‘actionable’ usesa commonly information risk scale. At the regional/national ofplanning, levels according customized to isoften Risk information mappingMulti-tier Rehas asimilar database (SIGMA). Swiss (NatCatSERVICE). companyThe insurance worldwide andhumanlossevents material catastrophes natural onhas adatabasefor insurance company Re, Munich example, for notavailableinthepublicdomain.often The hazards, products though these customized are catastrophe modelling, of different types for for software have proprietary developed companiesInsurance ina number ofcountries claims. coverage,insurance premiums andestimated potential damage and to formulate to calculate isused This information providers by insurance that thegreatest are theeastcoast. risks for within a 30-year indicating of earthquake period of exceedance map with 3percent probability 109

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Table IV-2 Risk information scale for policy planning and project implementation

Regional/national level – mapping scale (1:1,000,000 or smaller) P

• Formulation of national disaster risk management strategy o • Inventory of major hazards in the country li cy P • Identification of areas affected or threatened for an entire country l ann i Provincial level – mapping scale (up to 1:1,000,000) n

• Draft regional development projects or large engineering projects g • Utilized more for spatial analysis at this scale (mostly qualitative)

District level – mapping scale (1:25,000 to 1:100,000) • Conduct the feasibility study of developmental projects • GIS analysis capabilities are used extensively for hazard zonation Municipality or community level mapping scale (1:5,000 to 1:25,000) I m

• Formulate projects at feasibility levels p l P e m • Generate hazard and risk map for existing settlements and cities r o en t j • Planning disaster preparedness and disaster relief activities e c a t

t

Project level very high resolution large mapping scale (1:2,000 or larger site) i o • Planning and design of engineering structure and in detail engineering measures to n mitigate natural hazards • Data management and 3D visualization

Box IV-1 Indonesia disaster risk index

In 2011 to assess vulnerability in each region, Indonesia’s national disaster mitigation agency (PNPB) developed the Indonesia disaster risk index (IRBI). This is based on an inventory of hazards and vulnerabilities, taking into account the frequency and intensity of hazards, including floods, landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis. Vulnerability is quantified using socio-cultural, economic, physical, and environmental parameters. It also takes into account the regulatory and institutional capacities of local governments, as well as the effectiveness of early warning systems, vocational education system, and mitigation and preparedness systems. The IRBI, which is updated every two years, categorizes 497 districts as being at high, medium or low risk (see map below). These data can then be used to derive a risk index at the provincial level. The index is used to inform the planning and allocation of public DRR funds.

PETA INDEKS RISIKO BENCANA INDONESIA TAHUN 2013 Aceh

Sumatra Kepulauan Kalimantan Utara Riau Timur Riau Sulawesi Maluku Kalimantan Gorontalo Utara Utara Barat Kepulauan Kalimantan Papua Sumatra Jambi Bangka Tengah Sulawesi Barat Barat Barat Sulawesi Belitung Tengah Kalimantan Bengkulu Sumatra Selatan Selatan Papua Sulawesi Sulawesi Selatan Tenggara Kelas Lampung Maluku DKI Sedang Jakarta Tinggi Jawa Banten Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Daerah Istimewa BaliBali NTT Yogyakarta NTB

Source: BNPB, 2015. Geospatial Application in Indonesia Disaster Management Authority (BNPB). World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai 2015. 110 Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. has built the world’s longest high-altitude plateau areas. inhigh-risk particularly China, example, for development infrastructure tolarge-scale risks assessingthe isvaluablefor information Such decision-making. 2). real-time toolsfor Italsoprovides support (Box major cities at1:2,000scale data for VI- prone and citiesandtowns at1:10,000scale at 1:50,000scale,districts multi-hazard data for scale,for hazard-specific data multi-hazard prone India’s NationalDatabaseforEmergencyManagement :Source Bhanumurthy andothers, 2014. network andgeospatialwebserviceprovidingservices,datavisualizations. megacities ata1:2,000scale.Thedatasetsareavailabletovariousendusersthroughvirtualprivate The databasecoversallofIndiaata1:50,000scale,multi-hazardpronedistricts1:10,000and management anddissemination. right people.Forthispurposeithasdefinedaseriesofstandardscoveringsuchissuesascoding,data The databaseisorganizedandstructuredtoprovidetherightinformationattime floods, cyclones,forestfires,earthquakes,landslidesanddroughts. data setsincludebase,thematic,andinfrastructurelayers.Disaster-specificinformationpertainsto hazard-specific data,correspondingattributeandlivedatafromremotenationallocations.Core combines raster and vector images linked with non-spatial information. These include core data, India hasaNationalDatabaseforEmergencyManagement.Thisismulti-scaleGISdatabasewhich B ox IV-2 17

railway is still operating safely. operating is still railway a severe climate (Figure IV-6). (Figure a severe climate movements and crust railroad isexposed toearth metres. Asittraverses the Plateau,Tibet the metres above sea level, reaching apeakat5,072 construct. Ofthis, some 960kilometres is4,000 cost approximately which $5.3billion to railway railway, the1,956-kilometre Qinghai-Tibet climate risk. climate therefore took intoaccount bothseismicand 19 Despite frequent earthquakes, the 18 The construction construction The 20 111

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure IV-6 Qinghai-Tibet Railway seismic hazard map and 3D elevation, highlighting the risk scenarios

90o 92o 94o 36o

36o

34o

34o

32o

Legend 32o Suture zone Active fault

Crustal junction Uncertain fault 90o belt 30o Normal fault Underlying active fault

Thrust fault No. of suture zone & crustal junction belt

92o 94o 30o

Tuotuohe, 4547 m

Golmud, 2819 m Tanggula, 5068 m, the highest station in the world

Chumaerhe, Nagqu, 4507m 4495 m Yangbajain, 4300m

Lhasa, 3650m, the end of the railway

Source: Wang, 2006 and China, Centre for Resources Satellite Data and Application, 2009.

112 disaster management authority, a UN agency, documents may becreated by anational also known as ‘sitreps’. These operational of type response This requires situation reports, rubble. brought intoclear machinery tools from sites, construction local toheavy trapped, anddigging topeopleusinglifting torescue those rubble clearing frantically responses. For example, from neighbours disaster, intomore andstructured evolve formal which, a after over thecourseofhoursanddays sporadic andlocal responses areThey often response relief.emergency andhumanitarian involve multiple agencies andare centred on theonset ofadisaster after place immediately management activitiesDisaster risk that take reliable, information. relevant andtimely to coordinate many actors. For this it requires community needs international humanitarian ofadisasterthe In theimmediateaftermath andassessmentofdisastersituations. andoperations centres monitoring Crisis allow dedicated P

ost- UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe di saste r assessme n t initial rapid assessment (MIRA). initial rapid sources toproduce ofinformation a multi-cluster reports,Situation becombined with other can ‘humanitarian bulletins’. ‘humanitarian moves or as monthly appropriate to weekly theacute phase during report andsubsequently example, situation withadaily starts generally aidandrelief.need ofemergency OCHA, for existing response, andthe people andareas in establish whathashappened, the nature of the assessment− to rapid and situation analysis institutions. elementsof include will Sitreps NGOs, or local international or regional resource tooldesignedtocover mobilization and response humanitarian strategy inter-agency is a flashappeal’,‘UN isaninitial which relief responses. andemergency Oneexample dispersingfundsfor quickly as thebasisfor impact assessmentstools,and rapid serve can The MIRA, along with other situation reports scarce andincomplete. thatisoften information thedisastersituation,appraise andconsolidate 21

22 A MIRA can AMIRA can 113

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

the first three to six months. If humanitarian Charter on Space and Major Disasters provides responses extend more than six months this can an agreement between space agencies, aimed be followed by a ‘consolidated appeal process’. at creating a unified system for accessing and delivering fast and free satellite imagery and Situation reports require multiple sources of space data to countries affected by disasters. information. One of the most valuable is satellite imagery, which can provide a clear picture of the Larger Asia-Pacific countries now have their situation before and after a disaster, at different own sophisticated systems for information time intervals and for specific areas (Figure IV-7). management. In India, for example, following When cross-checked and cross-referenced with cyclone Hudhud in 2014, the State Government other information the analysis of such images of Andhra Pradesh used geographic information can indicate the extent and location of damage. systems, global positioning systems, and remote In Asia and the Pacific, ESCAP, through its sensing technologies to assess damage and Regional Space Applications Programme for upload information onto a satellite map using sustainable development (RESAP) network, geo-tagging. helps provide satellite imagery, at no cost, to disaster-affected countries (Box IV-3). For In the Republic of Korea, the National example, during the 2015 Nepal earthquakes, Disaster Management Institute has developed RESAP received multiple images of sites in a smartphone-based damage assessment system and around Nepal from different satellites that can gather data from user measurements administered by the region’s spacefaring member and transmit these to a mobile server that countries. The material included raw images that classifies and organizes the data and feeds it officials within the Ministry of Home Affairs into the National Damage Management System. and other relevant national institutions could The system automatically calculates the expected use to perform their own analysis and create damage value and dramatically reduces the time mapping products. Globally, the International for damage assessment. Figure IV-7 Before and after images of Kathmandu for 2015 Nepal earthquakes

Source: Provided to ESCAP by UNITAR UNOSAT, CNES and AIRBUS, 2015. 114 consortium aims to provide an interface between aims to provide between consortium an interface Network. theDigital Humanitarian formed This group ofnon-governmental have organizations sources, technological new UAVs, including a In response to the wealth ofdatacoming from must organizations address.humanitarian issuesthat andethical practical serious raised impact assessment. The use of UAVs has, however, related damagelandslide andearthquake and affected. Chinahasalsobeenusing UAVs for and flooding and to identify the villages most damage fromthe coast toevaluate surges storm were passable. The UAV was then flown up base ofoperations, ifroads andthento check a UAV where was used tochoose to setupa Haiyan hit the Philippines typhoon 2013 after overfly with manned aircraft. For example, in reach areasto thatare inaccessible ordifficult (UAVs), also known as drones. UAVs can vehicles of disasters is unmanned aerial aftermath usedinthe increasingly Another technology vehicles Unmanned aerial The RegionalSpaceApplicationsProgrammeforSustainableDevelopment advanced technologicalcapabilities. LLDCs andSIDS,whichotherwisewouldnothaveaccesstosuchcriticaltimelyinformationor an estimatedmonetaryvalueofmorethan$600,000USD.ThisserviceisparticularbenefittoLDCs, struck Vanuatu.Theseimageswereprovided free ofcharge by RESAPmembers and UNOSAT, and had satellite imagesandmapsincludingintheaftermathofNepalearthquakestyphoonthat contributed topreparedness, response, reliefanddamageassessment.In2015,RESAPmobilized 150 In 2013and2014,forexample,RESAPmobilizedmorethan218satelliteimagesdamagemapsthat with itsRESAPmembercountriesandstrategicpartnerUNOSAT,facilitatesaccesstospace-baseddata. Upon receivingrequestsfromdisaster-affectedcountriesorearly-warningalerts,ESCAP,incollaboration derived data,productsandservicesfordisasterriskmanagement. and enablescountrieswithouttheirownspaceprogrammestohavecost-effectiveaccessspace- affected countries.RESAPprovidessupportfortheuseofsatellite-deriveddata,productsandservices years, callsonallnationalspaceagenciesintheAsia-Pacificregiontoworktogetherhelpdisaster- development throughRESAP.Thisuniqueregionalcooperativeplatform,whichhasbeenrunningfor20 ESCAP promotestheapplicationofspacetechnologyfordisasterriskreductionandsustainable B ox IV-3 are not accounted for. per cent of the economic impacts of disasters Reporthe 2013Globalt, Assessment to50 close IV-8).costs (Figure Asaresult, according to ofand labour, the shortages and other direct ofbusiness asthe interruption such disruptions ofassetsbutnotthecostflow destruction not flows.of stocks That is, assessthe they is thattheeconomic loss estimatescover only of pre-disaster baselineinformation. Another had anumberofweaknesses. Oneisalack the damage. assessments have In thepast such institutions, publicandprivate, needtoestimate disasters,After governments aswell asother network UAV for imaging support. andthe OCHA World Bankengaged the Following Pam cyclone in Vanuatu, example, for networks. volunteer andtechnical and informal formal, organizations professional humanitarian Damage a nd loss assessme n t 115

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure IV-8

Economic losses from disasters

Disaster impacts accounted only the stock and not the flow disruptions

Direct Losses : complete/partial destruction of immovable assets M

acr o Indirect Losses : Disruptions of economic flow, business interruption, impacts on a business supply chain e c

o Wider Impacts : Loss of market share, no m competitors taking clients, labor shortages,

negative effects on reputation i c

Macroeconomic Effects : all the above losses and impacts

Source: UNISDR, adapted from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

To assist with a more complete overview of PDNA into the national disaster damage and post-disaster needs, in 2013, the UN, the loss assessment system. World Bank and the European Union produced guidelines for post-disaster needs assessment Most disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region (PDNA). This has since been widely used – for are small to medium scale, so may not require the 2015 Nepal earthquakes, for example, and the deployment of international assessment teams, for the cyclone in Vanuatu. In March 2015 at but instead can use home-grown methodologies. the Sendai World Conference on Disaster Risk These can use the PDNA methodological Reduction the World Bank, the GFDRR, the framework, and retain a sound scientific base, EU and UNDP jointly launched a guide to but need to be downscaled to meet local needs. developing disaster recovery frameworks. This For this purpose countries at high risk and links the PDNA process with the ‘building with low capacity will need a ‘critical mass’ of back better’ approach. trained manpower.

The PDNA is a government-led exercise which In recent years, to support the urgent political covers economic damage and losses, and the decisions on recovery and reconstruction, there recovery priorities, in a single consolidated has also been more emphasis on rapid assessments report. This is used as a basis for developing that are technology-based. These use satellite a comprehensive immediate and long-term remote sensing, GIS, crowdsourcing and ICT recovery framework and for mobilizing assistance applications. This was the case in the Uttarakhand from donors and development partners. One flash floods in 2013, typhoon Haiyan in 2013, concern, however, is that the affected country cyclones Phailin and Hudhud in 2014 and may lack the capacity for institutionalizing the cyclone Pam and the Nepal earthquakes in 2015.

116 Rapid assessmentofpost-disasterdamageandlosses assessment,evidence-based ESCAP has produced To assist inthis process, andincrease the speed of information. reliable quantitative manner with evidence-based damage shouldbemade inanobjective and that the estimation of post-disastercritical of accuracy.highest possible levels It istherefore requirementkey action isquick basedon the IV-9). decisionaccurate making(Figure The assessmentsenable fasterandmoreRapid Figure Rapid assessmentforresilientrecovery responsible forpost-disaster relief,response,recoveryandreconstruction. the recoveryprocess.Itistargeted atmanagersandpractitionersfromgovernment agenciesthatare The manualshouldhelpmake assessmentsmoretimelyandevidencebased helpusersmonitor following thePDNAfor2015Nepalearthquakesand themethodologywasreviewedbyexperts. geospatial modelling, crowdsourcing and other web-basedtechnology.The manual waspilot tested step-by-step guideonconductingrapiddamageassessments fortheselectedsectorsusingspace, Disaster ManagementCentreare jointly developing this manualonrapid assessment. This will be a infrastructure andagriculture,withdisasterriskreduction asacrosscuttingsector.ESCAPandSAARC rapid assessmenttakesintoaccountthedamageand lossesforselectedsectorssuchashousing, framework is supported by an important PDNA tool − Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery. The The SAARCDisasterManagementCentrehasputin place theSouthAsiarecoveryframework.The B ox IV-4 IV-9 D i s a s t e r

Opportunity Cost 100% accuracy Urgent needto Speed ismore important than assessment produce

Need forScientific Using adequate innovative tools and techniques Urgent needto Methods and reliable subjectivity introduce methods scientific Reduce in other subregions. berolled out subsequently will manual which withSAARC the tocustomize is partnering PDNA module.smart Asia, In South ESCAP as a development training adopted capacity for to the2015Nepal earthquakes, andthen waspilottestedintheresponse methodology geospatial solutions (Boxincluding IV-4). The the useofreal ornearreal-time data satellite with assessmentmethodology PDNA sectoral assessmentmanual.a rapid This combines

Evidence based graphical reports Assessments presenting pre- Analytical and transparency and trustfor scenarios and post- financing disaster Bring

N E M S S E S S A T R D P A I

117

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Comparing actual damage with pre-disaster risk Average annual loss assessments The Global Assessment Report 2015 introduced the A rigorous pre-disaster risk assessment can be probabilistic risk assessment method and used compared with the actual outcome should disaster it to estimate future losses, from earthquakes, strike. This exercise has been carried out, for tsunamis, floods, cyclones/typhoons and example, for the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. The landslides. The estimate is a weighted average pre-disaster assessment was based on the SEismic of the expected loss from every disaster event, Loss EstimatioN model (SELENA) which was piloted by ESCAP in Nepal.23 The model was given its probability of occurrence – the average run for future earthquakes at magnitudes from 5 annual loss (AAL). An AAL calculation involves to 8. The GDP loss per capita was anticipated three components: hazard modelling; exposure to be greatest in the central hill and eastern and vulnerabilities; and risk estimations. It mountain districts – which was confirmed by uses both historical experiences and modelled the actual outcome (Figure IV-10). A similar predictions to give a comprehensive picture of exercise for Vanuatu found that the pre-disaster what can be expected. risk assessment corresponded well with actual 24 damage and loss from cyclone Pam in 2015. The AAL is considered one of the most robust probabilistic risk indicators − offering a Estimating future disaster losses quantifiable, and comparable assessment of future disaster losses by type and economic sector. There are two main approaches for estimating Policymakers can use this for DRR financing future losses. The first is probabilistic risk budgets, designing risk reduction schemes and modelling to estimate average annual loss and carrying out cost-benefit analysis for specific the second is based on potential climate scenarios. intervention proposals. Legend Level of exposure and risk (GDP loss per Capita) Figure IV-10 Slightly exposed with low risk (<4,800) Moderately exposed with moderate risk (around 5,000) Modelled and actual earthquake damage in Nepal, 2015 Highly exposed with high risk (around 7,000) Severely exposed with extremely high risk (>10,000)

Modelled impact Modelled impact Actual impact

Legend Legend Categorization of affected district Slightly Affected Level of exposure and risk (GDP loss per Capita) Hit Slightly exposed with low risk (<4,800) Hit with Heavy Losses Moderately exposed with moderate risk (around 5,000) Crisis Hit Highly exposed with high risk (around 7,000) Severely Hit Severely exposed with extremely high risk (>10,000)

Actual impact, 2015 Modelled impact Source: Government of Nepal/Ministry of Home Affairs (accessed 21 May 2015). Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or 118 acceptance by the United Nations.

Legend Categorization of affected district Slightly Affected Hit Hit with Heavy Losses Crisis Hit Severely Hit

Actual impact, 2015 per cent 100 20 40 60 80 0 Estimated averageannuallossesfromdisasters,selectedcountries Figure – asinBangladesh, China, Nepal and Thailand. cent, incommercial isfelt sectors and industrial ofexpected disaster losses,brunt around 70per 40 per centofthe income loss. For others, the Pakistan and Fiji, around where experience they areaffected poor households –as in Myanmar, IV-11).(Figure For some countries, those worst The AALalsoenablesestimatesby sector :Source UNISDR, 2015b. Bangladesh much winds. higher from and cyclonic storms like Vanuatu andthePhilippines, are therisks winds.exposed to cyclonic For island countries losses from earthquakes, whileBangladesh is more China, Nepal and Pakistan are atgreater of risk ofAALaredrivers floods. Italsoshows that China, Myanmar, Nepal andPakistan, the main Bangladesh, including in large continental States ofdisaster andsector.by type that This indicates selected countries,provides AAL for estimates for estimates atthenational level. IV-11 Figure ways, reflect and the AAL can this with detailed Disasters impact indifferent different countries per cent 100 20 40 60 80 0

Industrial Poor hosueholds Myanmar Bangladesh

Nepal IV-11

Industrial Poor hosueholds Myanmar Fiji

Nepal By hazard type Pakistan Fiji Education Commercial Philippines Pakistan Vanuatu Education Commercial Philippines Thailand Vanuatu China Thailand

China

scenarios tothescenarios national downscaling regional change climate intheregionMany countries have been Climate assessment risk rising byrising 2100to around 8.8per cent. per cent oftheirannual gross domestic products, on average cost these countries change will 1.8 Lanka. climate study predictsThis pioneering that Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives and Sri change andadaptation infive climate countries: examined theeconomic costsassociatedwith The AsianDevelopment Bank,for example, has and economic assessment. modelling,climate impact physical assessment associated costs. This involves three steps: regional impact on vulnerable sectors, along with the change,associated withclimate aswell asthe understand and nature the scale of the risks hydrometeorological hazards. The aim is to

per cent 100 20 40 60 80 0 Storm Surge Flood Bangladesh per cent 100 20 40 60 80 0 Myanmar Flood Storm Surge Bangladesh Nepal Myanmar By sector Tsunami Cyclonic Wind Fiji

Nepal level, for particularly Pakistan Tsunami Cyclonic Wind Fiji Philippines Pakistan Vanuatu Earthquake Philippines Thailand 25

Vanuatu

Earthquake China Thailand

119 China

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

A number of countries now have pilot Transboundary concerns programmes for comprehensive climate risk assessment – including Bangladesh, Cambodia, The impact of natural disasters often extends Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tajikistan beyond the boundaries of a single country as and Tonga. These assessments are taken into weather and geographic topography do not account by climate investment funds/green stop at the boundaries of any one country, climate funds for financing climate resilience city or administrative boundary. Managing projects. A number of innovative country-level disaster risk thus also requires cooperation initiatives have demonstrated the potential for between neighbouring countries. The region’s climate risk assessment for resilient development best practices in information sharing for disaster planning (Box IV-5). risk management include:

Box IV-5 Climate risk assessment for resilient development planning – Tamil Nadu, India

Tamil Nadu in India is exposed to various climate-related risks including cyclones, heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and landslides. To ensure climate-sensitive planning and decision-making, government stakeholders have been encouraged to incorporate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning.

This has been used to calculate the effect of climate change on the agriculture sector. The assessment was based on high, medium, and low emission IPCC scenarios, for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s.26 This indicated the associated temperature increases and likely declines in precipitation, as in the maps below.

2020s 2025s 2080s

Rainfall change in % -40 - -30 -20 - -10 -5 - -0 5 - 10 0 200 km -30 - -20 -10 - -5 0 - 5 10 - 20

Source: UNDP, 2013b.

120 vary significantly from significantly year to year.vary can of seasonalpattern flooding butthe extent The Mekong hasa predictable andregular human decisions IV-12). and activities (Figure in thelower MRB −emanating from nature or waterrelationships –particularly transboundary has many potentialfloodareas andcomplex in theMekong basin(MRB). river The MRB on joint management of shared water resources Republic,Democratic Viet Nam Thailand and the governments ofCambodia, People’s Lao River Commission works –which with directly resource istheMekong managing atransboundary The region’s for mostestablishedmechanism river basin Flood management andmitigation intheMekong such issues the MRC has an Information and issues the MRCsuch and has anInformation :Source UNDP, 2013b. Climate riskassessmentforresilientdevelopmentplanning–TamilNadu,India (GSDP) isindicatedbelow. industry andservicesectorslinkedtoagriculture.Theprojectimpactongrossstatedomesticproduct This wasusedtomodeltheimpactonprimarysectorofeconomy–agricultureand B ox I

billion USD V-5 (continued) 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480 Potential GSDPlossesduetoclimateriskintheprimarysectorofeconomy

GSDP 2011-12 at2010-1 2012-13 Impact onProjectedGSDP(GlobalCirculationModels)

1 pricesbillionUSD 2013-14 28

To address 2014-15

2015-16 27

2016-17 particularly flooding.particularly andhydrometeorologicalgeological disasters, plains. The region is, however, to vulnerable people, most ofwhom live inthe surrounding and well-being ofmore than abillion the survival Rivers flowing through this region arefor vital China, India, Myanmar, Nepal andPakistan. shared by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, highmountains,comprises valleys, and plateaus The Hindu Kush –Himalayan region (HKH) management system Hindu flood KushHimalaya regional information navigation accessibility and fisheries. navigation accessibility cropand helpingthemplanfor irrigation, Portal –keeping communities updated Services forecasts via its DataInformation makes flood Knowledge Management Programme which Modelled GSD

2017-18

2018-19 P at2010-1

2019-20

1 pricesbillionUSD 2020-21

2021-22

2022-23 29 121

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure IV-12

The Mekong river profile fromMekong headwaters River Profile to mouth from Headwaters to Mouth

5 000

4 500

4 000

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500

Source: Mekong River Commission, 2011. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

To monitor these vital water flows, and ensure other key stakeholders, including hydrologists a timely exchange of flood data through and meteorologist. This twin-track strategy will an accessible and user-friendly platform, the ensure better linkages between the Regional International Centre for Integrated Mountain Flood Information System and its operational Development (ICIMOD), in collaboration with applications so as efficiently support flood the World Meteorological Organization, has forecasting and early warning down the line. made efforts to establish the ‘Regional Flood Information System in the HKH Region’.30 This Transboundary management of landslides initiative has helped set up hydrometeorological stations across Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Landslides can also be transboundary. In 2014, Pakistan. These stations collect real- or near-real- for example, heavy precipitation in Tajikistan time data on river levels and rainfall and related triggered a landslide that killed 431 people issues − which is disseminated through a web- in the neighbouring region of Badakhshan 31 based platform. This Regional Flood Information in Afghanistan. Due to the absence of a System may now be integrated into the operational transboundary information sharing mechanism, flood monitoring and early warning systems in it was not possible to issue an early warning. the respective countries. For this purpose, there are two important enabling steps. The first is to If countries and communities are to mitigate the fully understand the transboundary risk - from impacts of hydrometrological-related disasters they regional to local levels. The second is to establish will need to scale up existing measures such as a multi-stakeholder platform that will engage landslide hazard zonation, risk assessment and the disaster risk management community with early warning. This requires a more in-depth

122 making. For disaster data systems this purpose decision- anduse these asa basis for analyses models andvulnerability the dataintheirrisk management. shouldbeabletoemploy They risk and toset quantifiable targetsfor disaster to assess trends over time, and between regions, should alsobeactionable − allowing countries it shouldnotjustbeaccurate Information and regionalpromote cooperation. South-South addressIn thisway itcan gaps and information tsunamis, floods, and droughts.cyclones/typhoons multi-hazard approach on − focusing earthquakes, assessment.and post-disaster risk takesa APDIM and strengthening theregion’s pre- for capacity (APDIM), gaps address ishelping countries critical development management ofdisaster information institutions, theAsianandPacific Centrefor In addition, one ofESCAP’s regional specialized betterunderstandingofdisasterrisk.maps for thedevelopment ofregional landincluding cover information management ways, in various ESCAP this transboundary is supporting on land useand cover. analysis, andinformation characteristics terrain seasonal weather forecasts, monsoon variability scenarios, risk hydrologyriver-basin with climate needs tobemore comprehensive −integrating management information also transboundary Such evacuation. timely andallow for information risk share can the the regional they level andlocal level government agencies. in this way By cooperating at todeliver managementinformation data to system should becomplemented withatransboundary exposure of settlements; infrastructure. andkey This precipitation events; populations; vulnerable characteristics; weather andsevere patterns factors:understanding ofnumerous risk terrain Addin g val u e to in fo r mat i o n

metres perpixel. 1:10,000, with aspatial resolution ofone to five example,for of1:2,000to should beon scales risk mapping, for earthquake classification urban and athighresolution. maps, risk Flood and shouldbeon scales information much smaller regional or global level, the most useful geospatial needto be presentedwhere at a the data often mapping scales. from Apart drought vulnerability, The studyalsoconsidered themostuseful IV-13).assessments (Figure risk along with flood and landslide classification those ofgreatest usewere landuse urban for and floods. products were thoserelated toearthquakes themostvalued purposes humanitarian that for ten major geospatial products information found a number of hazards. One study that assessed assessing is valuable for Geospatial information Geospatial information can be interlinked. can methodologiessothatthey and harmonized should usestandard socioeconomic indicators to certain areas ofthesystem.to certain Workflow involves be given or limited access privileged users can Access control meansthat different groups of according to ‘access control’ and ‘workflow’. ofuser.types specific Customization is organized presentationsourcesfor customized andoffer from information collect diverseThese can isthroughinformation web-based geoportals. ofsharingOne ofthemostusefulways Geoportals five years. might beevery cases the frequency of updates in bothwhich these spatial resolution of10metres. Another issue is beata1:50,000scale,mapping can witha 33 For economic purposes, however, 34 Landslide hazard assessment hazard assessment Landslide 32

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CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Figure IV-13 Views of the value of geospatial information

Critical infrastrutureCritical infrastruture and the public and economy the public economy HumanitarianHumanitarian aid aid

Landslide HazardLandslide Assessment Hazard Assessment Landslide HazardLandslide Assessment Hazard Assessment Flood Risk MapFlood Risk Map Flood Risk MapFlood Risk Map Flood Risk MonitoringFlood Risk System Monitoring System Flood Risk MonitoringFlood Risk System Monitoring System Flood DamageFlood Assessment Damage Map Assessment Map Flood DamageFlood Assessment Damage Map Assessment Map Inundation MapInundation Map Inundation MapInundation Map Urban ClassificationUrban forClassification for Urban ClassificationUrban forClassification Earthquake for Earthquake Earthquake DamageEarthquake Assessment Damage Assessment Earthquake DamageEarthquake Assessment Damage Assessment Drought VulnerabilityDrought Map Vulnerability Map Drought VulnerabilityDrought Map Vulnerability Map Fire Risk Map Fire Risk Map Fire Risk Map Fire Risk Map Fire Detection Fireand DetectionMonitoring and Monitoring Fire Detection Fireand DetectionMonitoring and Monitoring 0 0 50 50 100 100 0 0 50 50 100 100 per cent per cent per cent per cent Reducing LossesReducing in Public Losses Economy in Public EconomyCritical InfrastrutureCritical Infrastruture Source: UNOOSA, 2015. Notes: Percentage of respondents rating the benefits as ‘high’.

managing the flow of data between certain this purpose ESCAP has been collaborating with groups of users, depending on who needs to take UNOSAT, the Asian Institute of Technology, and action, who needs to stay informed, and who the Applied Geoscience and Technology Division needs specific information. Another important of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community. issue is the aspect of time. Within geoportal These portals, which have now been established systems timing can be managed through the in Bangladesh, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, use of alerts, notifications, and scheduled and Mongolia and Nepal, combine socioeconomic automated updates and outputs. data with satellite imagery and other disaster- related data − providing the right information ESCAP has worked with Countries with Special to the right people, at the right time. Countries Needs to establish cost-effective, easy-to-maintain that wish to implement their own geoportal portals for geo-referenced information systems can take advantage of open-source options for disaster risk management (Geo-DRM). For (Box IV-6).

Box IV-6 Open-source geo-referenced information systems

ESCAP has helped countries share geo-referenced information over the internet using the open source tools GeoNode (http://geonode.org/) and GeoNetwork (http://geonetwork-opensource.org/). These provide a single platform for accessing location-based information, using archived and up-to-date infrastructure, socioeconomic, meteorological, disaster and satellite-derived data. Responding to an ESCAP survey, national authorities and agencies said that Geo-DRM portals are essential tools for taking advantage of satellite imagery received from national, regional and international providers.

To control access, manage data, and maintain the consistency and authenticity of information, it is important that such systems be centrally managed by a national focal point, preferably a national disaster management authority. The focal point can work closely with national survey departments,

124 (http://drmlearning.unescap.org/). flood riskmodelling.Italsooffersinformationonotherdisaster-relatedGISskillsandtechniques instructions onhowtosetupandmaintainsuchGeo-DRMportals,performgeospatialanalysis ESCAP has also launched an online learning platform for disaster risk management. The site provides gov.np/). Nepal • centre. Open-source geo-referencedinformationsystems Cook • agency initiatives. similar fieldsandcoordinatedwithon-goingnationaleffortsthroughexistingUnitedNationsinter- authorities. Duringthesetasks,ESCAPhasalsolinkedupwithministriesandagenciesworkingin domains. Forthisreason,theGeo-DRMshavebeenpositionedwithinappropriatenational census departmentsandmeteorologicaltouploadmaintaindataintheirrespective Mongolia •

B ox I used during the 2015 earthquakes as a repository for GIS and mapping data (http://drm.moha. are usingthesystemandcontinuouslyuploadingdisaster-relateddata.Thegeoportalwasalso made disasterdataandwillconnecttheportaltoemergencyoperationearlywarning soil, grasslands and special protected areas. Mongolia is currently utilizing natural and man- is usedformappingresources,groundwater,landuse,ecosystems,provincialborders,forests, ministries. AfterfullymappingtheislandofAitu,theyofficiallylaunchedportalinAugust2014. V-6 (continued) :Source ESCAP, availablefrom http://drmlearning.unescap.org/. Islands − The − National Ministry − the country Emergency of Home has Affairs Management formed has a formally taskforce Agency launched has consisting established their of portal GIS a Geo-DRM experts and all from stakeholders portal various which

125

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

The Asia-Pacific region has access to a variety Right information – Each phase of the disaster of advanced subregional, regional and global cycle – preparedness, response and recovery and geoportals. They include those developed by: reconstruction has specific tasks. During the the Indian Space Research Organisation (http:// response period, for example, these include impact bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in); the Pacific Disaster Center assessments, humanitarian needs assessments and (http://www.pdc.org); the International Centre the coordination of resources and capacity. Each for Integrated Mountain Development (http:// has its own information requirements. geoportal.icimod.org); the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (http://www.gdacs. org); and ReliefWeb (http://reliefweb.int), a Right people – Each phase also has its own specialized digital service of OCHA. primary stakeholder groups. These include DRR actors, relief agencies and development The right information to the practitioners who in turn may be operating at right people at the right time the international, regional, national and local levels. It is important to map these groups and Effective information management provides the understand their information needs and also the right information to the right people at the information they can generate to feed into the right time (Figure IV-14). overall information management system.

Figure IV-14 Right information, right people and right time

International/region

Right National people

Local/community

Development DRR actors Relief agencies practitioners

Pre-disaster During Post-disaster Right time

Recovery & Preparedness Response reconstruction Impact assessment Needs assessment Right Risk assessment and damage extent Modelling and information Humanitarian needs Planning forecasting Testing and reporting Coordinating resources Monitoring and and capacity evaluation

Baseline data/socio-economic data

126

applications for disaster situation for briefings,applications aerial other devices. products include During-disaster sending messages through mobilephones and providing for advicecover applications and ‘during’ period. Pre-disaster products, example, for assessment’ components correspond to the monitoring’ and ‘Damagethe ‘Emergency IV-14. ofFigure timeperiod right While components correspond tothe ‘pre-disaster’ the ‘routine monitoring’ and ‘risk assessment’ IV-15).(Figure Inthiscase, example, for productsa range ofoperational information Reduction Centre ofChina(NDRCC) has system. For example, theNational Disaster design will its own information Each country tofulfil ad-hoc information requests.of flexibility regular structures, reporting aswell aselements This requires adegree through of predictability itfrom sources. collecting and for thevarious providing toeach targetfor information audience Right time acceptance by the United Nations. :Disclaimer or and namesshown officialendorsement andthedesignationsThe boundaries used on thismapdonotimply :Source Provided to ESCAP by NDRCC, 2015. Disaster informationproductsinChina Figure monitoring Routine IV-15 – There are windows of opportunity assessment Risk Space-based informationproductsforDRR Emergency monitoring map makes it easier to identify weaknesses in map makesiteasiertoidentifyweaknesses in map oftheterrestrial fibre optic backbone. This have partnered to createand ITU a regional communications networks inthe region, ESCAP understand how these considerations the affect and proactive investment. to Inaneffort resilience requires network diversity, redundancy orincreasedconnectivity volume oftraffic. Such whenfaced withlimited and maintain services shocks absorb can that they such infrastructure therefore are that they grounded within resilient are vulnerable.systems themselves Itisimportant disaster events,During management information and residential sites. damage roads,monitoring tokey infrastructure inundation, and integrity structural monitoring imagery, monitoring, hazard geological flood M ak in g IC assessment Damage T systems r es reconstruction Recovery & monitoring i l i e nT

127

CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development amas Dezso T amas photo/ UN EP

the regional connectivity infrastructure and to are linked to an overarching communications target infrastructure investment opportunities. satellite (Figure IV-16).

ESCAP’s Asia Pacific Information Superhighway35 SCADA systems (APIS) initiative tackles these issues by addressing missing links at the national and subregional Individual items of energy and transport levels. APIS promotes resilient infrastructure infrastructure, such as bridges or electricity backbones that have a balance of terrestrial and substations, are typically monitored remotely submarine fibre optic connectivity. Investments by centralized systems over communications in this type of infrastructure, together with networks – using SCADA (supervisory control improvements in internet traffic management, and data acquisition) systems. Such systems and mechanisms for regional cooperation, will generally work well, but from the perspective make networks more resilient to disruption by of disaster management have a number of disaster events and easier to restore if damage limitations. One is that they are usually occurs. proprietary and differ from one application and enterprise to the next. Another is that Japan, for example, has ensured that its disaster these ‘black box’ systems are not interoperable management communications are resilient by or interconnected. basing them on a decentralized ‘mesh’ architecture. Networks and relevant buildings each have For example, Thailand’s Flood Control Center, their own receiving stations and radio masts, established in 1990, monitors 69 remote SCADA supplemented by mobile equipment, while all units that measure hydrological data such as

128 :Source Provided to ESCAP by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 2014. damage for processingdamage for andanalysis. rainfall, and quality, water levels as well as flood Central disastermanagementradiocommunicationssysteminJapan preparation and response. disaster for information on sharing collaborate groups on specific tofocus activities, and createregional working stakeholderscan level tested. should also be regularly systems At the identify problems andrespond tothem. Such integration,systems andempowers endusers to to openstandards.systems This helpspromote to move from beimportant proprietary will network. of acritical parts For it thispurpose them as interconnected view and interdependent integration of thesetechnologies, to itisnecessary Nowadays duetoincreasing automation and visit theinstallations. thedataistophysically way tocollect only Figure C f o o o d r r T m g

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CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

for standard cell phone calls and text messages Hardening networks has remained relatively unchanged for many years, user behaviour changes very quickly. A During disasters, there are two major causes specific application might only have a lifespan of communications disruption. One is physical of five to ten years. This is a reasonable period damage or loss of power. The other is sudden for consumer technology, but far shorter than network congestion as governments, emergency that typically required for government investment responders, and citizens all start using their programmes and products. handsets.38 To reduce the probability of service outages, countries should frequently stress test These applications depend on collecting large their networks and where necessary take steps amounts of user data, so they rely on a resilient to ‘harden’ the weaker components. network that can withstand large-scale disasters. To make realistic use of these tools, governments should therefore focus primarily on maintaining Two indicators of the health of a national the infrastructure – ensuring, for example, that communications system are ‘packet loss’ (the commercial telecommunications networks can percentage of information packets that are cope with disruptive events and handle high lost in transmission) and ‘network latency’ (the usage spikes. time it takes for a packet of data to get from one designated point to another). Based on At the same time governments need to remain information from around 90 countries, the mean sufficiently agile to identify and utilize emerging rate of packet loss globally is 1.68 per cent and technologies – and be in as strong position the mean latency globally is 107.31 milliseconds. to collect, curate and take action on this data. In the Asia-Pacific region performance on these For developing countries in particular this is indicators varies greatly. Latency in Nepal, for generally an expensive prospect so governments example, is significantly higher than in Singapore should carefully consider which aspects of the (Table IV-3). technology they can afford or sustain. Ensuring that networks are sufficiently robust Relying on mobile phones as data conduits during disasters is made more difficult by also confronts a classic problem in the use of continuing increases in consumer demand. ICT – the tendency, particularly in developing Countries that are not increasing their network countries, to empower the connected and capacities accordingly risk having them falter further disenfranchise the more marginalized during disaster events. communities. There can also be gender implications, as women in some poorer communities are less likely to have mobile phones. Even in these One way of extending networks through fibre circumstances, however, disseminating disaster optic cables at lower cost is to co-locate these warnings by text message is likely to be effective with existing or new energy or transport since the news will be passed on rapidly through infrastructure. It may also be possible to use untapped fibre capacity in existing SCADA communities and households. Nevertheless, when 39 promoting these tools governments should be more systems. Such co-location also makes it simpler sensitive to issues of access and marginalization. to repair damaged infrastructure.

130 video, or large amounts of voice communication. high-resolution GIS maps, example, for streaming sharing disasters–for data traffic following Indeed itmay need tobeenhanced, given high the communications asawhole. infrastructure radio.trunked However it isalso vitalto restore communications networks asterrestrial such be equipped withteams dedicated can thisperiod, response During themostcritical The first 72 hours after a disaster are crucial. after adisaster are The first 72hours chain. delivery need toconsider thecomplete service thevalue ofinvestment,illustrates butalso the communications to hard-hit areas. This experience impacts,significant making it difficult to restore network, phone ascell such towers, suffered stayed functional. Butother components ofthe hadwhich benefitted from investment, significant the national core telecommunications backbone, In Nepal, example, for the2015earthquakes during reliable communications kilometre’. over the ‘last disaster resilient, itismore difficulttodeliver that while afibrecan bequite optic backbone Recent disasters in the region have demonstrated e- Restoring communications and Network reliability,selectedAsia-Pacificcountries Table r es i Azerbaijan Country Russian Federation Hong Kong,China Singapore Kazakhstan Nepal : Speedtest.net (retrieved June 2014) and analysis by:Source ESCAP. June 2014)and analysis (retrieved Speedtest.net l i e IV-3 nc e 2013 2014 2014 2014 2010 2012 Year Mean packetloss(%) 41 40 0.32 0.83 1.00 1.40 1.26 1.85

voice network. than adding tothe load on thecircuit-switched through data network apacket-switched rather viavoice messages andfamily their friends Kit. This allowed userstocommunicate with operator, Disaster created called anapplication DoCoMo,NTT Japan’s largest mobilephone of2011,of theJapan earthquake example, for moreinherently flexible and resilient. In the wake availability. makes it of This level redundancy take any one ofmultiple routes according to thatmakeupamessageof information can individualpackets inwhich packet-switching internet, however, of on operates the principles the samecommunicationvie for pathways. The isprone asmultiplewhich callers tooverload usingacircuit-switched network transmitted Voice is on atelephone information call protocolsResilience viainternet (TCP/IP) add mobile basestations or ‘cells on wheels’. ofdisasteritisalsopossibleto quickly case provided by node. aneighbouring And in the fail, can be area totheaffected some service redundancy. basestation one cellular Should adegree also offer Mobile networks of can Mobile base stations Mean latency(milliseconds) 42 83.96 72.09 72.13 64.49 92.35 92.65 43 43

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CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Even so, these will all need power supplies. specific use during disasters.46 Motorola is also One problem following the Japan earthquake of developing lighter-than-air platforms to deploy 2011, was insufficient power for base stations. In communications services rapidly when terrestrial response, companies have introduced new designs infrastructure has been damaged. featuring longer-lasting fuel cell technology.

Mobile base stations were deployed, for example, A roadmap to effective and in the US in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane resilient information Katrina in New Orleans to provide cellular management connectivity for first responders. ViaSat and Qualcomm staff transported mobile base stations Providing the right information to the right that allowed for communications both within people at the right time, involves five principal and outside the network. For best coverage steps. These are: 1) understanding risk; 2) such stations should be located on high vantage having data and information sharing policies; 3) points. In New Orleans, they could be placed on generating actionable information; 4) customizing high-rise buildings.44 But this may not always information and reaching out to people at risk; be possible, particularly in rural areas, or in and 5) using real-time information.47 urban settings affected by floods or earthquakes. In such cases, ground-based systems can be Taking these steps depends on three key ‘enablers’: supplemented with airborne antennae. capitalizing on innovative technology, achieving international and regional cooperation, and Airborne base stations developing capacity through South-South and Triangular cooperation to share knowledge and Another option is to have the whole base station good practices48. These principal steps and key airborne on a UAV.45 Individual UAVs, using enablers all depend on critical ICT infrastructure miniaturized cell phone technology, might be which need to be protected to underpin their able to service only a limited area, but connected functioning. with a base station they can also be linked in chains. These have the advantage of flexibility Step 1 - Understanding risk since they can be moved as required. They are also relatively inexpensive. Understanding risk is best addressed during the pre-disaster phase. This involves assessing Internet services can also be offered from balloons. risks in qualitative and quantitative terms, In 2013, the internet company Google announced where possible modelling them with available Project Loon. This project has now reached the data, while considering issues of financing and stage where a single balloon can stay aloft for insurance. It also means taking into account the more than six months and when linked with culture and psychology behind risk, and creating an upstream telecommunications network can partnerships for building resilience (Box IV-7). provide cellular service for an area of around 3,000 square kilometres. While originally intended to One issue is that information collected from extend services generally in developing countries various sources may not be in a standardized form. this also has considerable potential for more It may also have coverage biases: information

132 create theirown data for purposes, butitis individualsandorganizations In many cases Step policies sharing 2-Data andinformation the community level. at monitor theimpact ofdisasterson poverty a national DRR beusedto planandcan guidethedevelopment of database thatwill of Indonesia –a comprehensive disaster loss UNDP tocreate Disaster Data andInformation of IndonesiaGovernment has been working with from the DesInventarLearning experience, the those disasters thatare entered into the system. (Box events frequency IV-8). covers Butitonly magnitudeandhigh- small include it will be more specificdisaster–since complete for (e.g. level the local to DesInventar) islikely by insurance. at collected Disasterinformation thatmightbecovered refer toevents largely from companies, insurance example, for will A roadmaptodisasterinformationmanagement Figure

Right information (cumulative knowledge) IV-17 Understanding risk Pre-disaster • • • K e T C I C nt y ria a a e pa pit en rna ng al c policies information sharing Having dataand a ul i bler t t iz y ion ar c e d on al ev s: o

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CHAPTER 4 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Box IV-7 Open-source risk assessment tools

Some tools for risk assessment have been developed by the private sector, usually by insurance companies for catastrophe modelling. However, there are also many open-source options developed by governments and international agencies.

One of the earliest, was the Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS).51 This allows users to perform aggregated loss estimation using a mesh grid. Another is HAZUS (‘Hazards US’) which was developed using public domain software by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency for performing loss estimation. Several other countries have adapted the HAZUS methodology for their own needs.

The Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) initiative utilizes geographic information systems, Web-GIS and catastrophe models for disaster risk assessment within an open platform.52 CAPRA’s main product is the software tool CAPRA-SIG, which combines hazard scenarios, and exposure and vulnerability data to calculate loss exceedance curves. The RiskScape methodology for multi- hazard risk assessment is a comparable initiative in New Zealand.53

Additional methodologies and tools include Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Community based disaster risk Management by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, and Natural Disaster Hotspots by the World Bank.

Box IV-8 Databases and resources for understanding risk

The Emergency Events Database – Administered by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, EM-DAT, records disasters based on threshold criteria: at least 10 fatalities; 100 or more people affected; a declaration of emergency; or a call for external assistance.54

GLIDEnumber – The Asian Disaster Reduction Center assigns each disaster a unique identifier and a number of relevant attributes.55

DesInventar − Disaster Information Management System. This is a disaster loss database that allows local authorities, communities, and NGOs to collect disaster information at the local level to feed into an online database.56 It is an initiative of UNISDR, the European Commission and UNDP.

DisDAT – This is a service of the Global Risk Identification Program and the Centre for research in Epidemiology of Disasters. It brings together all publicly available disaster databases from different countries.57

INFORM – This is a global, open-source risk assessment for humanitarian crises and disasters. It is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission. Available from http://www.inform-index.org.

134 and monitors the SDI status for all countries. and monitors all theSDIstatus for ofglobal geospatialdevelopment information, the(UN-GGIM) issettingtheagenda for on Management GlobalGeospatial Information For this purpose, the UnitedNations initiative ofmaps through formats.sharing inter-operable the –toallowfor national datainfrastructure tocombine globaland It isalsoimportant technologies, policies, and standards. spatial data sets within an environment of agreed sharing, processing, applying, andmaintaining promotes the development for ofaframework (UNSDI) Nations DataInfrastructure Spatial and structures. At theUnited thegloballevel (SDI) – apolicies, framework for resources relies on robust spatial data infrastructure inparticular geospatial information Integrating be assigned to anappropriate action. itcan management system into adisaster risk filtering. information for comes As information implied actions. can thenbe used This system types, information for system along withthe purpose, to establish aclassification itis important needed throughout thedisastercycle. For this pre-disaster phase. But actionable is information the whatthisimpliesduring have indicated isactionable.that this information sections Earlier amounts ofdataitismore difficulttoensure itisrelatively vast easytogenerate While Step 3-Generating actionableinformation Republic ofKorea and Malaysia. Australia,listed include China, India, Japan, Asia-Pacific that have their SDI details countries conventions, and classification. authorization procedures andprotocols, timeframes, naming asstandardizationsuch and formats, platforms, 58

59 59 Space andMajorDisasters(Box IV-9).Space on in thisrespect Charter istheInternational international cooperation. agreement An important to real-time requires information regional and origins,has transboundary thengainingaccess considerable coordination. For example, if a disaster images. However, to work thisrequires smoothly geospatial information, crowdsourcing andUAV complementedinformation imagery, with satellite time data. Nowadays come from thiscan local requires situation analysis real-A well-informed to take an integrated approach.to take an integrated grid,management oftheelectrical itisimportant components,of otherinfrastructural as such networks embedded in avariety are alsoheavily effective communications networks. Since these Disaster management planningdependson ICT infrastructure Protecting Asia. network and Sentinel images is facilitated by ESCAP’s RESAP regional level, inAsia-Pacific, access to satellite Step 5-Using information real-time of their regular functions by planning ministries. out as part integration shouldbecarried such intointegrated development plans. Normally and planning actors reduction so that risk is coordinationlinks for between developmental also meansestablishingstrong institutional reach outtopeopleatrisk.tools thatcan It and decision support services based information needs ofstakeholders. This requires location- tothe shouldbecustomized Information people atrisk Step 4 – Customizing and reaching information At the At the 135

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Box IV-9 The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters

The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters (International Charter) is a global agreement between space agencies, aimed at providing a unified system for accessing and delivering fast and free satellite imagery and space data to countries affected by natural or man-made disasters. Although the International Charter can only be activated by authorized members during emergencies, it can be activated for disasters in any country for acquisition and dissemination of space data to share with relevant national authorities.60 For the Asia-Pacific region, the International Charter was activated on average for 14 per cent of disaster events – 15 times in 2012, 25 in 2013, and 20 in 2014 – more than half of global activations in those years.

Critical infrastructure should be planned and not yet be sufficiently resilient – and thus designed with disaster management in mind. can be unreliable for critical first-responder This enhances the capacity to restore systems communications, especially in the initial hours to functionality. By contrast, retrofitting such after a disaster. Countries should therefore capabilities into existing systems is expensive consider additional forms of connectivity. For and time-consuming. example, first responders may be provided with subscriptions to terrestrial trunked radio networks, In many developing countries, however, the which are not connected with public networks commercial telecommunications network may and can accommodate sudden high-volume use.

136 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

NDEM.html. Available from http://www.nrsc.gov.in/Programmes_ Disaster Prevention, Japan, 2009. and National Science ResearchEarth Institutefor Bank Institute, 2013, pp.22. Asian Development Bank and Asian Development that change (Endsley, 1995). changeandwhatfactorshow may thiscan influence form, understandingwhatisgoing on around you, and changes to their state over time. In a simpler inrelationdistribution toone another, andtheeffects the different elementsinanenvironment, theirspatial awarenessSituational istheideaofunderstanding Walsh, M., andRichard Fuentes-Nieva 2014, pp.13. Federal Management Agency, Emergency 2013. ofHomeland Security, Department United Sates Da Silva, Jo, 2010. Affairs,Humanitarian 2015a, pp.32. United Nations fortheCoordination Office of Greiving andothers, 2012. Visman, Emma, 2014. contacts/, accessed 7May 2015. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/ Contacts,Organization [online], available from Authority, 2008. 2014. Indonesia, National Disaster Management India, National Institute of Disaster Management, andPerformance,Accountability 2013. World Bank, 2014e. Network Active for Learning Caribbean, 2014. andthe Economic America Commission Latin for fb11a6ac6d2b80a742&tab=core&_cview=0. opportunity&mode=form&id=d9844cb78b4527 Available from https://www.fbo.gov/index?s= stories2014/20140224_bigdata.html. Available from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/ UN, 2009. Endnotes

21 20 19 18 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22

Humanitarian Affairs,Humanitarian 2015a. United Nations fortheCoordination Office of c1001-19067974.html. from http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2012/0921/ The costofQinghai-Tibet project.railway Available 269. Society, Engineering ofRailway Journal (12s):264- J]. disasteralong Qinghai-Tibet secondary Line[ Wang, Zhihua, 2006, Active tectonics and its www.cresda.com/n16/n1175/n41408/9062.html. Data andApplication, 2009. Available from http:// Railway,Tibet ChinaCentre Resources for Satellite image 1Mosaicmapofsatellite theQinghai- Figure Bank Institute, 2013, pp.22. Asian Development Bank and Asian Development district-2-may-2014. afghanistan-badakhshan-province-landslide-argo- Available from http://reliefweb.int/map/afghanistan/ in Argo District: May 2014Report. UNOCHA Afghanistan: Badakhshan Province: Landslide hycosrfis: http://www.icimod.org/hycosrfis System. Available from http://www.icimod.org/ HKH-HYCOSThe Flood Information Regional Available from http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/ Mekong River Commission, 2009. Mekong River Commission, 2011. Asian Development Bank, 2014. Pam,Cyclone March 2015, of Government Vanuatu. Vanuatu: Post-disaster Needs Assessment, Tropical 2015, 16-18February Financing Bangkok, Thailand. and Risk Reduction intoDevelopment Planning and on Strategies Tools Disaster Integrating for Risk Assessment, ESCAP Regional Conference Planning: Probabilistic Catastrophic Hazard Ex Ante Tool Development Risk Sensitive for p.6, Committee, Standing InterAgency 2012. 2,Figure The continuum ofcoordinated assessments, UNDP, 2013b.

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33 United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs, 2015. 45 Guo and others, 2014.

34 If a sensor has a spatial resolution of 20 metres and an 46 Ars Technica: Google balloons, “cell towers in the sky,” image from that sensor is displayed at full resolution, can serve 4G to a whole state. Available from http:// each pixel represents an area of 20m x 20m on the arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/03/ ground. google-balloons-cell-towers-in-the-sky-can-serve- 4g-to-a-whole-state/. 35 Secretariat discussion paper for the open-ended Working Group on the Asia-Pacific Information 47 Figure IV-17 can be adapted to create a more robust Superhighway. Available from http://www.unescap. information management strategy, so that the five org/events/first-meeting-working-group-asia- steps are cyclical and can be applied within each pacific-information-superhighway. phase of the disaster cycle, in addition to different

36 steps corresponding to different phases of the disaster Flood Mitigation and Management in Bangkok cycle, as currently illustrated. Metropolitan Area. Available from http://www. unescap.org/sites/default/files/S3b4_Thailand.pdf. 48 Triangular cooperation typically involves a traditional

37 donor, a donor from the South, and a beneficiary Ye and Heidemann, 2006, Enabling Interoperability country in the South. and Extensibility of Future SCADA Systems. Available from http://www.isi.edu/~johnh/PAPERS/ 49 Greiving and others, 2012. Ye06c/index.html. 50 Chatham House, 2015, pp.17. 38 GSMA: Innovations in Mobile Technology for 51 Disaster Response; Part I. Available from http:// Available from http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/ www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/innovations- publications/2752. in-mobile-technology-for-disaster-response-part-i. 52 Available from http://www.ecapra.org. 39 ESCAP: Harnessing cross-sectoral infrastructure 53 Available from https://riskscape.niwa.co.nz. synergies. Available from http://www.unescap.org/ sites/default/files/Item%203%20Harnessing%20 54 Guha-sapir and others, 2013. cross%20sector%20synergies_0.pdf. 55 Available from http://glidenumber.net. 40 ESCAP: Collaborative efforts to improve regional 56 disaster communication capabilities, 2010. Available Available from http://www.desinventar.net/index_ from http://www.unescap.org/idd/events/cict-2010/ www.html. CICT2_4E.pdf. 57 Available from http://www.emdat.be/disaster-data- 41 Yap, Nonita, 2011. collection-initiative-portal.

58 42 GSMA: Innovations in Mobile Technology for European Union Agency for Network and Disaster Response; Part I. Available from http:// Information Security, 2014. www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/innovations- 59 Available from http://ggim.un.org/sdi.html. in-mobile-technology-for-disaster-response-part-i. 60 43 International Charter, Space and Major Disasters, GSMA: For Telecoms companies, disaster Charter Activations. Available from https://www. preparedness begins to reap rewards. Available from disasterscharter.org/web/guest/activations/charter-ac http://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/for- tivations;jsessionid=9EE1286E7E6673EA0A31FB telecoms-companies-disaster-preparedness-begins- 187C5056FB.intlcharter-prod4040, accessed 7 May to-reap-rewards. 2015. 44 Milsat Magazine: COMM-OPS: UAV Cellular Payload for First Responder Emergency Teams. Available from http://www.milsatmagazine.com/ story.php?number=1435005486.

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140 ESCAP PHOTO/RAUF ALAMSYAH 5 development sust At theheartof ainble 141

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

CHAPTER 5 At the heart of sustainable development

“Sustainability starts in Sendai.”

Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations at the opening of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai, Japan, 13 March 2015

Disaster risk reduction cannot be confined to one or two government departments. Rather it is a responsibility for every part of government – from education to health to transport to social protection. Just as every sector can be affected by earthquakes or floods or cyclones, so every sector needs to consider how to make its activities disaster resilient.

Disaster risk reduction is an essential component The Sustainable Development of sustainable development. Measures to reduce Goals the impact of disasters – building stronger infrastructure, for example, or better housing, The world has increasingly recognized the or better organized communities – also support importance of integrating disaster risk reduction development in general. But the process works into every development activity, an understanding both ways, because countries with higher levels that has evolved over the years – from the of development are also better able to defend 1987 World Commission on Environment and themselves from disasters: as their economies Development to the 2015 Sendai Framework for grow, infrastructure becomes more robust and Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR) governments that have more resources can provide stronger systems of protection. Sustainable (Box V-1). Disaster risk reduction is also central development thus reduces vulnerabilities and to the proposed Sustainable Development Goals makes countries more resilient to disasters. (SDGs) which address this priority in a number of goals, including those on poverty eradication, Disaster risk management should thus be food security, infrastructure, cities and human closely integrated with development planning settlements, climate change and ecosystems 1 and programming. However in the Asia-Pacific (Table V-1). region, there is still a long way to go in achieving this in an inclusive manner in all development The SFDRR is thus integrated with the SDGs– sectors, and at all levels. horizontally across development sectors and

142 their nationaldevelopmentprogrammes’. policies fordisasterpreventionand,particularlyindevelopingcountries,tointegratethemfullyinto ‘formulate nationaldisaster-mitigationprogrammes,aswelleconomic,landuseandinsurance Reduction andadoptedaninternationalframeworkofactionthatcalleduponallgovernmentsto Assembly responded by designatingthe1990sasInternationalDecadeofNaturalDisaster development policy and planning’. World’ reiterated that ‘disaster prevention and preparedness should be considered integral aspects of 1994 − The World Conference on Disaster Reduction − Its ‘Yokohama Strategy and Action Plan for a Safer Disaster riskreductionintheglobaldevelopmentagenda group onindicatorsforsustainabledevelopment. are being developed by an intergovernmental working group in conjunction with the inter-agency expert SDGs: itsperiodofaction2015-2030iscoterminouswith thatoftheSDGsanditsprogressindicators environmental, technological,politicalandinstitutional’. TheSFDRRhasbeencarefullyalignedwiththe risk reductionwithvariousmeasures–economic,structural, legal,social,health,cultural,educational, expected outcomeandgoalsoftheframeworkfocusedonimplementation‘integratedinclusive’ substantially broadenedthescopeandpurposeofglobalframeworkdisasterriskreduction.The 2015 − Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction − The SFDRR identified these critical gaps and disaster response. planning andfinancingofdevelopment.Thus,disasterriskmanagementhasbeenskewedtowards very littleappreciationofthecostsandbenefitsriskreductionamongagenciesresponsiblefor has been slow. The public investments for disaster risk reduction have been inadequate, as there was sectors ofdevelopmentwouldbeoneitsfiveprioritiesaction.However,progressinthisregard at all levels’ would be oneof the strategic goals. And addressing the underlying risk factors across all integration ofdisasterriskreductionsintosustainabledevelopmentpolicies,planningandprogrammes 2005 −HyogoFrameworkofActionTheHFAtriedtoaddressthisgapbyrecognizingthat‘effective of disasters,pointingouttheirdevastatingeffectsondevelopment. 1987 −WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopmentThismadethefirstglobalassessment evolved overrecentdecades. Global understanding on the importance of disaster risk reduction for sustainable development has strategy andplanofaction. national andlocaldevelopmentplanningobjectives’remainedoneofthemostcriticalgapsin established disasterreductionstrategythatislinkedtoindividualsectoralinterestsandintegratedinto Box V-1 Box 5 4 A review of the Yokohama Strategy pointed out that ‘ensuring an 3

2 TheUnitedNationsGeneral 143

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Table V-1 Resilience to disasters as a cross-cutting issue in the Sustainable Development Goals

SDGs Main DRR linkages Examples Poverty • Disasters tend to have the greatest long- • There are over 500 million poor people, in 17 Asia-Pacific countries, eradication and term impacts on those people in the poorest who are living under medium or higher disaster risk (Chapter 1) economic growth income quartile or quintile, although lack • In rural Andhra Pradesh, India, drought was reported as the single of data and research on long-term effects most important factor contributing to impoverishment (Chapter 1)6 of disasters at household level makes In the Indian states of Jharkhand, and Odisha (formerly Orissa) and analysis of the complicated linkages between • Chattisgarh, drought-related income losses were close to 80 per cent7 disasters and impoverishment difficult • In the aftermath of the Nepal earthquakes in 2015, poor households • Impoverishment is linked to lack of access to in rural areas were more adversely affected than those who lived in markets, capital, assets, and social security cities. The earthquakes are expected to have pushed 2.5 to 3.5 per and insurance mechanisms that can help cent of the population into poverty–around 700,000 people (Chapter 1) people to cope and to rebuild • After the earthquake in Sichuan, China in 2008, the proportion of the • Disasters affect disproportionally the poor in province’s population covered under the ‘basic provision protection’ Asia-Pacific; and LDCs in the region have scheme rose to more than 50 per cent. Five years after the earthquake, reported annual damage close to 1% of this had not returned to the pre-disaster level (Chapter 1) their GDP since 1970, which is significantly higher than the rest of countries (Chapter • Globally, the expected annual average loss from natural disasters is $415 1, “Countries with special needs”) billion – of which 40 per cent is likely to come from 50 countries in Asia and the Pacific. In Myanmar, the annual average loss represents • Taking on risks and proactively managing 30 per cent of its annual capital investment. In the Philippines it is them is a natural element of development expected to be 14 per cent and in Cambodia 10 per cent (Chapter 1) and economic growth, and risk assessment and DRR planning should be integrated in investment planning at all levels Food security, • Disasters destroy critical agricultural infrastructure • A heat wave in the Russian Federation in 2010 led to the worst drought sustainable and assets, and they cause losses in the in nearly 40 years. Added to this were historically severe floods in agriculture production of crops, livestock and fisheries, Pakistan, which led to significant drops in global food supplies8 causing serious damage to livelihoods and • In 2010, following a dzud drought event in Mongolia, more than 8.4 food security of millions of small farmers, million livestock died, affecting more than 770,000 herders. Among pastoralists, fishers and forest-dependent them, 164,000 herders lost more than half their livestock and 43,500 communities in developing countries were left without a single animal9 • Increasing demand for farmland can increase • Estimates from India suggest that drought reduces agricultural production the risk of hazards through environmental by 12 per cent, compared with floods, which reduce production by 5 degradation. For example, landslides can per cent (Chapter 2). In the state of Rajasthan, regular droughts have increase when vegetation is cleared for led to forced migration, unemployment, increased debt and reduced agriculture on steep slopes food consumption • The agriculture-food-nutrition sector is • In South-Western China the Grain for Green Program bans logging and challenged to move towards resilient sector agriculture on steep slopes and prohibits forest clearing. In exchange, specific DRR measures, technologies and the local communities receive grain and cash subsidies as well as practices which raise yields and increase protection against flooding events resilience against production failure, as well The 2010-2011 floods in Australia led to the loss of $1.6 billion worth as towards a more sustainable use and • of crops, reducing wheat exports by 1.5 million tons and causing management of vital resources increases in world commodity prices10 • Typhoon Ketsana hit Lao People’s Democratic Republic in 2009, inundating 28,500 hectares of rice and crop planted areas. Five of the affected provinces were responsible for around half of domestic rice production11 • A severe drought in Afghanistan in 2008 and 2009 led to an acute food supply crisis. Wheat production, at 1.5 million tons, was 60 per cent lower than previous years12 • A severe drought in 2000 and 2001 in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan cut the availability of drinking and irrigation water and led to slow, chronic forms of malnutrition as households eliminated meat and dairy products from their diets

144 Inequality empowerment and women’s Gender equality sanitation Water and education Health and • • • • • • • • • • • • • • loss ofthisfurtheraggravatesthesituation infrastructure is anunderlyingsourceofvulnerability and of deficit a where exclusion, already characterizedbysocialinequality and Extensive riskparticularly affects areas with disabilities notably children, older persons and persons Disasters hithardestthemostmarginalized, less able to invest in risk-reduction measures likely to live in hazard-exposed areas and are people living in multidimensional poverty are portionate shareofdisasterimpactsand dispro- a suffer households Low-income community leveliswelldocumented preparedness andreliefbothatfamily as agentsofchangeandtheirroleindisaster social andculturalfactors,womencanserve Despite beingdisadvantagedbyeconomic, are notoftenrecordedatall subsistence farming,dominatedbywomen, men, andlossesintheinformalsector Productive resources tend to be owned by and menareaffected differently bydisasters cultural beliefsandtraditionalpractices,women Due to existing socioeconomic conditions, sewerage andwatersupplyinfrastructure access towaterandsanitationbydamaging events, hinder progress in achieving universal Disasters, particularly localized, small-scale spread the of disease with flood disastrous into rain new risks,forexamplebyturningaheavy sanitation combined with disasters can also create and services basic of Lack since 1970 Asia-Pacific in damage total the of were responsible for around 92 per cent storms and floods tsunamis, Earthquakes, acknowledged intheHFA inclusive, disaster resilient societies, as was to preparingcommunitiesandbuilding Education canalsogreatlycontribute in socialdevelopment Disasters hampercountries’ abilitytoinvest hamper disasterrelief in post-disastersituations,andcanfurther often linked to the displacement of people Outbreaks ofcommunicablediseasesare health andeducationfacilities Disasters destroyanddisruptservicein Caribbean the and America Lain more likelycomparedtosomeone living in a naturaldisasterasin Africa, and6times region is twice as likely to be affected by the Asia-Pacific in living 2005. Aperson since cent ofalldeathsin disaster eventsglobally per 60 for accounted region Asia-Pacific The 17 13

• • • • • • • • • • • • • n oss f 22 ilo (hpe 1) (Chapter million $2.2 of losses in 1,000 than more landslides damageddams, pipelinesandwater tanks. This resulted in 2014, Islands Solomon in shallow unprotected wells were contaminated, and flood-induced floods of result a As all floods 2010 and cyclone 2007 led todropsinnetprimaryschoolenrolment earthquake, 2005 the Pakistan, In 4,500 classroomswerecompletelydestroyed missing, went or died children 5,400 almost earthquake, 2008 China’s In 1) (Chapter damaged significantly or completely health facilitieswerecompletelydestroyed,almost7,000schools In the2015Nepalearthquakes,morethan460publicandprivate hn rpcl tr Wsi i Mnaa i te hlpie i 2011, in Philippines the in informal communitieswerehitthehardest Mindanao hit Washi storm tropical When per 0.8 was area coastal the Miyagi of cent, whileitreached3.5percentamongpersonswithdisabilities in population rate total death the the 2011, amongst in region Japan in earthquake the Following cent higherforwomenthanmen was highest for young children and older persons, and was 40 per In villagesaffected bythe2004IndianOceantsunamideathrate overlooked were either women or were unable to be reached becausetheir mobility was restricted Pakistan, in floods 2010 the Following to 15per1,000formen age group20-44,thefemaledeathratewas71per1,000,compared Indian The 1991cycloneGorkyinBangladeshkilled140,000people.Withinthe 2004 the after cent per 70 and Ocean tsunamiinBanda Aceh 2008 in Nargis Myanmar in cyclone fatalities after of cent per 61 estimated an represented Women and ittookmorethanfourweekstorestorepower lines power poles, power and transformers. The provision of electricity was seriously hindered to damage experienced which Fiji of division Western the in damage widespread caused Evan typhoon 2012 The to urgentneedsinotherpriorityareas,suchasfood,waterandshelter Relatively few resources have gone into restoring the energy sector due of electrictransmissionanddistributionlines,affecting 12,000people. In 2015 cyclone Pam in Vanuatu damaged a total of 65,000 metres facilities werefromdisasterevents than 90percentofalldamageandlosseswatersanitation Globally, asurveyof65countriesandtwostatesfoundthatmore 19 18 18 23 15 16 14 21 22 20 145

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Sustainable cities • Up to 742 million people, or 60 per cent • Jakarta’s plan for 2010–2030 calls for incorporating risk reduction and resilient of Asia-Pacific city dwellers, are exposed activities into long-term spatial planning for the city. This includes: infrastructure to levels of either ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ multi- restoration of mangrove forests; improvement in public facilities and hazard risk (Chapter 1) mass transit; refinement of building and environmental regulations that • More than 60 per cent of the area projected consider hazard risk; redesign of technology and engineering in disaster to be urban in 2030 has yet to be built; areas; and improvements of provision of open space for anticipated this poses significant challenges but also increases in intense rainfall opportunities to properly integrate DRR in • Slum populations and their increase in metropolises such as Dhaka long-term planning or Manila are significantly augmented by migration related to floods, • Hazards provide opportunities for major storms and droughts advancements in DRR with focus on building • In 2014, heavy rainfall in Nepal caused severe landslides at Jure back better; it should not be limited to village in Sindhupalchowk district, completely obstructing the Arniko structural improvements in buildings or to highway, part of the Asian Highway network connecting Nepal with specific elements of infrastructure without China. Importers faced significantly higher costs of transportation from adequate focus on underlying drivers taking alternative routes (Chapter 1) • Those living in informal settlements are • The 2010 - 2011 floods Australia damaged more than 9,100 kilometres most vulnerable to disasters, and many of roads 4,700 kilometres of rail networks. Power to 480,000 homes was have migrated to slums due to disasters disrupted and more than 50 coal mines were damaged on disrupted24 in their original settlements • The 2011 Typhoon Haima in Lao People’s Democratic Republic led • Extensive risk is characteristic of informal to continuous rain, which caused landslides and blocked national, urban settlements and low-income rural provincial and tertiary roads. (Chapter 1)25 areas, where poverty forces low-income • After the 2015 Nepal earthquakes, half a million houses collapsed or households to occupy areas of low land were damaged beyond repair; more than 250,000 houses sustained value that may be exposed to floods, damage. (Chapter 1)26 landslides and other hazards • In 2015, cyclone Pam in Vanuatu destroyed 15,000 homes and affected 60 per cent of the population, setting the country’s development by years (Chapter 1)27 • In Dhaka, Bangladesh,vegetation cover has been reduced by more than half. This has depleted environmental barriers, increasing the potential impact of cyclones, floods and drought events (Chapter 1) Climate change • Many parts of the world are witnessing an • In Asia and the Pacific, 80 per cent of disaster events reported since increase in extremes of climate, such as 1970 have been hydrometeorological-related events such as floods, greater extremes of temperature, heavier storms and droughts. These have affected 5.8 billion28 rainfall, or higher maximum wind speed • Maldives is on average 1.5 metres above sea level. 80 per cent of of storms. This can result in an increase the land area are less than one metre above sea level. A slight sea in natural hazards such as flash flooding, level rise will have devastating consequences. Some states, such as the drought, landslide, and storm surge island of Male, risks complete inundation by the end of the century29 • In most countries, the predicted annual • Afghanistan, parts of China and India and countries in Central and average loss increases under climate change South Asia, rely heavily on water from mountain glaciers and snow scenarios. But affects will differ country by melts. A year with limited snow in winter will affect water resources country during the growing season (Chapter 2) • Drought and flood hazards are among • Glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate and extreme climate events the most potent causes for long-term may become more intense. In particular, heat waves can seriously impoverishment, particularly in rural areas impact many countries (Chapter 2) Ecosystems • Environmental degradation is one of the • The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami damaged coral reefs in Indonesia, main drivers of disaster risk Thailand and Sri Lanka. Damage was greatest in reefs that had 30 • Natural ecosystems can reduce vulnerability previously suffered destructive fishing practices (Chapter 1) to natural hazards and extreme climatic • In Pakistan,high rates of deforestation have increased susceptibility to events and complement, or substitute for, floods and landslides during heavy rainfall (Chapter 1)31 more expensive infrastructure investments • Mangrove ecosystems reduced the impacts of the Odisha cyclone on • Communities dependent on fragile or coastal communities in India in 1999 (Chapter 1)32 degraded landscapes – such as overgrazed, • Around 1,400 million hectares of land are affected by desertification heavily deforested or severely eroded lands across Asia, more than any other region in the world. In China and – are often the most vulnerable to losses Pakistan, almost a third of productivity gains were negated by soil from natural hazards and water degradation (Chapter 2) • The effects of land degradation are often • Ecosystems in 32 of 34 Asia-Pacific countries, are experiencing ‘medium’ irreversible to ‘strong’ degradation (Chapter 1)

146 development planning means looking critically at at development planning means looking critically reductionIntegrating disaster risk into agreement inDecember. Green Climate Fund climate of the new as part Development,for and also promised the for the ThirdFinancing International Conference of financial resources, 2015in as stipulated in July action. Therefor isalso the potential additional is now emergingasaconcrete agenda for complex task by countries most of thedeveloping seen as a difficult was hitherto and What levels:at all global, regional, national and local. through on the focus implementation vertically partnership renewed global implementation, of Means peaceful societies Governance and :Source ESCAP based on UN-DESA, 2015. • • • • • • led tofragmentedimplementation lack has transfer technology on coordination of adaptation; change climate and DRR there exists aneedforclosercoordinationbetween and crucial, be will building Capacity countries middle-income being recipients financing 10 of top the but of all (Bangladesh) with one countries, recipient few a just Funding for DRR is strongly concentrated in reconstruction insteadofpreventiveDRR and emergency-relief on concentrated International cooperation has heavily conflicts of disasters,and disasters canexacerbate impact the increase can fragility and Conflict also supportgoodgovernance governance arrangements,butDRGcan and obstaclesthatexistwithintheoverall mirrors thechallenges,restrictions,blockages often (DRG) governance risk Disaster risk not always appropriate to address disaster emergency managementorganizations,are countries, relyingheavilyonspecialized Governance arrangementsadoptedbymany • • • • •

in developing countries, have a cost-benefit ratio between 4 and 36 and 4 between ratio 4) cost-benefit (Chapter a have countries, developing in the World Bank,investments inhydrometeorologicalwarningservices, and $8 between is return $500 overaten-yearperiod. According toresearch undertakenby estimated the systems, prediction warning In Bangladesh for every $1invested in storm,cycloneand flood has cents 40 just aid, development been investedindefendingthataidfromtheimpactofdisasters on spent $100 every for Globally practice This housing inthesestates ofhousehold. head thefemale was institutionalizedandtransformedthegeneralpracticeofsocial included also time first only recordedunderthenameofmaleheadhouseholdfor Gujarat and (1993) Maharashtra (2001), housing records were digitized and land titles that were traditionally in earthquakes the 2) following (Chapter India, land In degraded of hectares million 10 than more reforested approach to agricultural production. It has, over the years, improved and ecosystems. Since the 1970s India has taken a watershed development Some countrieshavebeenstrengtheningthedisasterresilienceof a alctd o dsse peeto ad rprdes Catr 1) (Chapter preparedness and prevention billion disaster $2.85 for only from the allocated however aid was billion, total $438 was past decade community the international over region, Asia-Pacific the In recovery whilegiving less priority to prevention andpreparedness. International assistancefocusesprimarilyondisasterresponseand local level based on the principle ofsubsidiarity’. basedon level the principle local sectors anda delegation ofresponsibilities at the approachsystems withstrong coordination across integrated andvertically provide a ‘horizontally (Table principles strategic V-2). These principles Action. for action prescribed six Its first priorities were established in the Hyogo Framework of reduction priority isanational as well as a local risk thatdisaster for ensuring The principles ‘prospective’ or ‘anticipatory’ management. risk ones–whatcreating isreferred new toas that itreduces andalsoavoids existingrisks each programme, andproject, activity ensuring 34 33 147

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Table V-2 Principles for integrating disaster risk reduction into development

Strategic Principles Targets A. Legal and regulatory mechanisms Adopt, or modify where necessary, legislation to support disaster risk reduction, including regulations and mechanisms that encourage compliance and promote incentives for undertaking risk reduction and mitigation activities. B. Institutional mechanisms Support the creation and strengthening of national integrated disaster risk reduction mechanisms, such as multisectoral national platforms, with designated responsibilities at the national through the local levels to facilitate coordination across sectors. C. Policies and planning Integrate risk reduction, as appropriate, into development policies and planning at all levels of government, including in poverty reduction strategies and sectors and multisector policies and plans. D. Finance and budgeting Allocate resources for the development and the implementation of disaster risk management policies, programmes, laws and regulations on disaster risk reduction in all relevant sectors and authorities at all levels of administrative and budgets on the basis of clearly prioritized actions. E. Decentralization Recognize the importance and specificity of local risk patterns and trends; decentralize responsibilities and resources for disaster risk reduction to relevant subnational or local authorities, as appropriate. F. Capacity building Assess existing human resource capacities for disaster risk reduction at all levels and develop capacity-building plans and programmes for meeting on-going and future requirements.

Legal and regulatory mechanisms • Bhutan – The Disaster Management Act provides that the Government shall ‘accord high priority to mainstreaming of disaster Integrating disaster risk reduction in development risk reduction into its development plan, requires a sound legal and regulatory structure policy, programme and project’ and ensure (Box V-2). This refers not just to laws covering 35 that ‘agencies receive adequate budget’. disaster management but also legislation for all • India – The Disaster Management Act other relevant sectors. Recently, countries in provides that disaster management plans shall Asia and the Pacific have introduced specialized be prepared at the national, provincial and legislation on disaster management, generally local levels, which would include ‘measures aligned with global frameworks and addressing to be taken for the integration of disaster disaster risk reduction in a comprehensive prevention and mitigation into development manner. They include: plans and projects’.36

148 • • thereof into the development program’. reduction disaster risk andintegration include that the ‘Government’s shall responsibility Concerning Disaster Management stipulates 6 of the Indonesian Law Indonesia –Article Authority. aNational DisasterManagement including multi-tiered disaster management, for system Act the establishment ofthecountry’s declares Pakistan – The 2010DisasterManagement andtraining.and education implementation andenforcement,plans for planning, analysis, disaster risk spatial structure prevention, integration intodevelopment disaster management planning,would include thepre-disaster during phase that undertaken is one of the continuous activities to be risk 35defines that disaster reduction Article Laws andregulationsfordisasterriskreduction :Source IFRC andUNDP, 2014. tools intheconstructionofnewdevelopments. coordination betweenthesesectors.OneoptionistouseenvironmentalimpactassessmentsasDRR separately frommuchofthebuildingandspatialplanningsystem.Asaresult,thereisoftenlittle Governments typicallyadministerDRMlawsandenvironmentallaws,includingclimatechange combined, insomecaseswithsanctionsfornon-compliancemajordevelopments. and buildingthecapacityoftechnicalexpertsatlocallevel,whilepromotingpublicawareness− resources atthelocalgovernmentlevel.Addressingthesefailingswillmeaninvestingmore legislation donotfullyimplementit.Thismaybeduetoaweak‘cultureofcompliance’andinsufficient construction, aswelllanduseandspatialplanning.Andevencountriesthathavethenecessary There are,forexamplestillsignificantgapsintheregulatoryframeworkssafetybuildingand also needclearlegalmandatesandauthorityforDRR,matchedwithmandatedresourcescapacity. stakeholders, especially those related to development planning and climate change adaptation. They as thenationalfocalpoint.Theseofficesneedtostrengthen their coordinationwithothersectorsand established asingleagency,suchasnationaldisastermanagementagencyorcivildefenceoffice, society approach to DRR andprovide national leadership and policy direction, governments have often plans and strategies this is not necessarily reflected in legislation. In order to cultivate a whole-of- Although manycountriesinAsiaandthePacificprioritizeDRRarangeofprogrammes,policies, Box V-2 Box 38 37

• • Viet Nam – Viet Law on Disaster The Natural reduction inthe risk program incorporated integrated, efficientand responsive disaster and implement acoherent, comprehensive, to oftheState bethe policy ‘adoptit shall Reduction andManagement Act provides that The Philippines– Philippine Disaster Risk The Prevention andControl 2013 makes ‘integration housing, among others’. planning,urban and and public infrastructure education, reduction, poverty landuseand environment, agriculture, water, energy, health, governance, in the areas of particularly development planning, budgeting, and formulation, aspolicy such socioeconomic change adaptation indevelopment processes ‘mainstream reduction disaster risk andclimate levels’development planat various to andfurther 39

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of natural disaster prevention and control into Another challenge for developing countries is national and local socioeconomic development to produce regulations for the private sector– master plans and sectoral development plans’ which may be working with the government one of the country’s basic principles of disaster through public-private-partnerships, or carrying prevention and control.40 out infrastructure and real estate projects, such as housing, highways, airports and Other countries, including Bangladesh,41 Sri Lanka42 seaports, telecommunications, power generation, and Samoa43 have also developed overarching transmission and distribution networks, oil and frameworks on disaster risk management based natural gas, and mining. Thus far, however, on the HFA, and are calibrating these frameworks the legal regimes have focused mainly on with the emerging global development agendas. tariff structures and technical standards, and specifications have not always factored in Some of the region’s developed countries, such measures for risk reduction. as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, do not have stand-alone national laws on disaster risk management, but have firmly embedded the Institutional mechanisms systems and processes of risk reduction across sectors, both within and outside government. In Asia and the Pacific the institutional This integration has taken place over years of arrangements for disaster risk reduction broadly development practice, through a continuous follow one of three models. process of iterative learning from successive disaster events. A specialized authority • Japan – The Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act provides that the Central Disaster In the first model, there is a separate specialized Prevention Council shall formulate a basic national agency or authority, usually chaired by disaster prevention plan, which would include the head of government, which steers overall (a) a long-term comprehensive plan for disaster disaster risk management and provides guidance prevention and (b) ‘operational’ and ‘local’ for similar authorities at provincial and local disaster prevention plans. These plans are levels. This is the dominant model in South ‘reviewed each year in the light of research Asia – as in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, findings, conditions of disasters that have and Sri Lanka. In India, the National Disaster occurred, and the effect of measures taken’, Management Authority, with the prime minister and revised if considered so necessary.44 The as chairman and nine nominated full-time Basic Act provides guidance for integration members, lays down policies and guidelines and of disaster risk reduction in sectoral laws. monitors implementation. In Pakistan the same • The Republic of Korea _ There are 23 laws responsibilities are entrusted to the National for disaster prevention. In addition, there Commission on Disaster Management with the is a Framework Act on the Management prime minister as chairman and eight other of Disasters and Safety and also the members: ministers of federal government, chief Countermeasures against Natural Disasters ministers of provinces, and the leader of the Act, which integrates disaster risk reduction opposition. The Commission is assisted by the across various sectors of development. National Disaster Management Authority which

150 model butitisgiving way tothefirst or years this was the dominant in most countries in coordination with other agencies. For many this discharges which government department or ofasingleagency responsibility exclusive In the third model, disaster management is the A singleagency National Defence. of oftheDepartment headed by the secretary Reduction andManagement is Council which corresponding bodyistheNational Disaster Risk by minister. theprime InthePhilippines, the DisasterManagement,Committee for headed coordination istheresponsibility of the National the Prime Minister’s Department. InCambodia Council in outby the Nationalcarried Security and social groups. departments, agencies relevant military including hasrepresentationwhich from and 33ministries headed by Council avice-premier of theState the National Committee Disaster Reduction for coordination China theinter-agency bodyis Malaysia, Myanmar, andthePhilippines. In Cambodia, People’s Lao Republic, Democratic by China andby South-East Asiancountries: five or agencies.departments followed This model is remain with the respective government coordination mechanism, butbasic responsibilities is guided by interministerial ahigh-level In thesecond model, disastermanagement Interministerial coordination Bureau. by aDisasterManagementsupported Centre/ and the president/prime ministeraschairman National Council on Disaster Management with and Bangladesh Lanka with a in place in Sri members.has full-time arrangements are Similar 45 In Malaysia, coordination is

of them meet regularly. Pacific have set platforms, up such and none inAsiaandthe 14out of 64countries only coordination across sectors’, but, asof2013, national tofacilitate through levels thelocal platforms, withdesignated responsibilities atthe The HFA prescribed ‘multisectoral national with other sectors. and preparedness–rather DRR than integrating followed their previous interest–disaster response civil defence, have they primarily andtoo often frombeen drawn forces, thearmed policeand oftheseagencies have functionaries high-level outreach development sectors. to various Many may beworking still insiloswithouteffective sectors. actions in specific mechanisms andmonitoring haveor they notestablishedthenecessary agencies and committees have not met regularly In practice thishasnothappened. Eitherthe to ensure a ofgovernment’‘whole approach. ministerorpresident,of theprime ismeant committee on disaster management inthe office authority, the national commission orlocating or the head ofthenational disastermanagement Having thehead ofstateorgovernment as second modelsare notyet working effectively. however,It is clear thefirst that even and coordinating mechanism. laws that may seeatransition to amultisectoral disaster management arethese countries drafting Solidarity. of Social it is theMinistry of Some andin ofDefence the Ministry Timor-Leste ofHome Affairs,Ministry inMaldives itis Asia. InNepal theresponsible isthe agency inCentral andmostcountries Timor-Leste management laws, asNepal, such Maldives, by that donothave disaster separate countries second models. beingused, Itisstill however, 46 Moreover,the coordinating agencies 47 151

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Policies and planning the country are based on the realization that rapid economic development in the past has While there are national policies and strategic created new risks of disasters which should action plans on disaster risk management in be addressed in a comprehensive manner. many countries in the region, there is often • India – The Planning Commission developed no clear guidance on how these are to be a blueprint for disaster risk reduction in Tenth integrated across government sectors – resulting Five Year Plan (2002-2007). This underlined in considerable gaps between professed policies the need for a multi-pronged strategy for and plans, and actual practices (Box V-3). total risk management, comprising prevention, Policy implementation across the Asia-Pacific preparedness, response and recovery, along region broadly differs according to level of with development efforts aimed towards risk development. The developed countries have reduction and mitigation.48 The Twelfth Five invested enormous resources on structural and Year Plan (2012-2017) emphasized that every non-structural measures for disaster risk reduction new development project should be appraised in various sectors. The emerging economies that on the basis of detailed assessment of hazards, face high disaster risks have also started making risks and vulnerabilities, while every existing such investments with some success – and have project should be retrofitted for the risks of introduced low-cost community-based initiatives disasters. The actual implementation, however, for risk reduction. has fallen far short of the vision. • Indonesia – The Government has a National • Bangladesh – The National Plan for Disaster Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Management (2010-2015) has a five-fold which is updated for successive three-year strategy for integrating disaster risk reduction: planning cycles. Each cycle identified more advocacy, policy and planning reform, capacity than 600 activities for disaster risk reduction building, planning frameworks, and uniform across sectors– which required significant community risk assessment. The country has financial and technical support from multiple also made significant progress in integrating stakeholders and donors. Many of these disaster risk reduction in poverty reduction could not be implemented since the support programmes. This success has been due in was not forthcoming; nevertheless, the plan part to a participatory risk assessment, a focus catalysed new ideas and initiatives, created on the multidimensional nature of poverty, public awareness and provided rallying points convergence of all development programmes at for multi-stakeholder participation. community level, and coordinated involvement • Japan – The Basic Disaster Management Plan of all development partners, with strong is continuously updated and has helped reduce presence of civil society and women. vulnerabilities and strengthen the resilience of • China – The National Disaster Reduction urban and rural communities. But the country Plan (1998-2010) was followed by the remains at risk from complex disasters, as Comprehensive Disaster reduction Plan (2011- demonstrated by the 2011 earthquake, and 2015). These plans aimed to establish a unified the country is integrating the lessons learned. management structure, bringing all levels of • The Republic of Korea – The country has been government together. Many recent initiatives in building the resilience of critical infrastructure

152 • Comprehensive Development Plan. Plan, Comprehensive Use Plan, Land and Framework astheProvincialsuch Physical build DRR development into local plans regionsguidelines for andprovinces to isdevelopingDevelopment Authority sectoral approach.sectoral DRRsupporting mainstreaming through government plansandprogrammes and(b) include: (a)mainstreaming DRR invarious and projects reduction. on disaster risk These 2009‐2019identified18programmes Plan The Philippines– Strategic National The Action making cities more resilient to floods. andhousing.systems area Onefocus is as roads,such railways, energy, communication Disaster riskmanagement:thedivorcebetweendiscourseandpractice direction ofdevelopment. identify countrieswherethestrengtheningofdisasterriskgovernancehasseriouslyinfluenced management continuestobemoresymbolicthanreal.AstheHFAcomesaclose,itisdifficult to reduction intodevelopmentprogramminghasrarelymaterialized.Thepracticeofprospectivedisaster In effectthestrongpoliticaldeterminationbyHFAtopromoteandintegratedisasterrisk the lensofcorporatesocialresponsibility. there hasbeenlittlesystematicengagementwiththeprivatesectorinmostcountries,exceptthrough departments adopt policies, norms, standards and regulations to manage and reduce risks. Similarly, As aresult,thedisasterriskmanagementsectorhaslittlesuccessinensuringthatotherministriesor risk managementasdisastermanagement. has rarelybeenforthcoming.Atthesametime,developmentsectorsalsotendtounderstanddisaster administrative mechanismstoprotectdevelopmentagainstexogenousthreats,thispoliticalsupport disaster riskmanagementhasbeenunderstoodandputintopracticeasasetofinstrumental higher levels of political capital and support than corrective disaster risk management. Given that Prospective disasterriskmanagementgenerallyrequireslowerlevelsoffinancialinvestmentsbut political supporteveniftheygenerateandaccumulaterisks. technical competenciestodoso.Manydevelopmentpolicies,plansandinvestmentscontinueenjoy on, developmentsectors,andithasoftenlackedthepoliticalauthority,governancearrangements The disasterriskmanagementsectoringeneralhasdevelopedonlyweakconnectionswith,andinfluence :Source UNISDR, 2015b. Box V-3 Box 49 The National Economic • constrained by capacities. weakgenerally local government agencies. Implementation isalso agencies anddonors with little buy-in from local the limitedinitiatives by driven are UN mostly and inmany countries oftheleastdeveloped resources and capacity the necessary lack countries However, mostoftheregion’s developing • its six key components,its six key mainstreaming DRR Disaster RiskReduction for hasas one of Plan Cambodia – Strategic National The Action from rise. sea level there though inthelong may run bethreats disasters, ortechnological major natural have helpedstandards protect of safety from Singapore and environmental –Highphysical 153

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into policies and programmes for relevant Finance and budgets government ministries,50 but implementation has not made much headway. Reports on implementation of the HFA commonly refer to a shortage of funds, either from • Lao PDR – The Strategic Plan on Disaster national resources or from official development Risk Management provided road maps assistance (ODA). In the Asia-Pacific region, for the short term (2005), medium term over the past decade prevention and preparedness (2010) and long term (2020). Some of the accounted for only 0.65 per cent of total ODA. short- and medium-term activities have been implemented, but the long-term activities for Countries that have special funds for disaster integrating disaster risk reduction in various risk management have mostly used these for sectors of development have not. disaster response and humanitarian relief. In India, for example, the Disaster Management Act • Myanmar – The Action Plan on Disaster 2005 mandated the creation of two dedicated Risk Reduction identified 13 priority projects funds at national, provincial and local levels – for DRR, but none has passed the inception the Disaster Response Fund and the Disaster stage. Mitigation Fund, though the latter has yet to be constituted (Box V-4). Pakistan and Bangladesh • Timor-Leste – The National Disaster Risk have also created national funds but only use Management Policy guides risk analysis, these for disaster relief and rehabilitation. Most countries, however, do not have such funds, vulnerability monitoring, early warning, instead relying on the general budgets of the emergency management, post-disaster national, provincial and local governments. research and review, recovery and knowledge development, awareness raising and human Some countries have separate budgetary codes resource development. There is no initiative for natural calamities, but none has separate for integrating disaster risk reduction in codes for disaster risk reduction. Nevertheless, in development. different development sectors they devote funds to structural and non-structural measures. Taken • Pacific island States – Most governments together such investments usually far outweigh have had some form of national disaster the contribution of international aid for disaster plan for many years. UNDP has also helped risk reduction – and the gap could widen still develop more comprehensive plans, covering further as a result of slow economic growth in preparedness, response and recovery activities. donor countries.51 But implementation has often been hampered by the limited interest of governments and • The Philippines – Over the period 2009- the shortage of suitable funds and human 2011, the budget allocation in the General resources. Some countries are receiving support Appropriation Act expanded by 61 per cent, from the Pacific Disaster Risk Management but still comprised only 2.12 per cent of the Partnership Network for DRM National Action national budget and 0.28 per cent of the GDP.52 Plans. Tonga is the first country to develop a Even so, in the Philippines the Government Joint National Action Plan for Disaster Risk invests 20 times more than the international Management and Climate Change Adaptation. community on disaster risk reduction.53

154 • with theHyogo Framework ofAction. DRR aligned investments categories inseven Indonesia – Regulation 21 of 2008 classifies were 71DRR-related activities. this Over Based on these, 2006-2012there during total budgetaryallocations,theshareofembeddedschemeswasashigh33.6percent. the HyogoFrameworkofAction.Whilesharededicatedschemesneverexceeded1.2percent were classified as ‘embedded schemes’. These were further classified according to the five priorities of categorized as‘dedicatedschemes’.Whentheallocationswerelessthanonehundredpercentthey When 100 per cent of budgetary allocations were earmarked for disaster risk management they were during 2005-2012providesignificantinsights. programmes, activities and projects (PAP) in the budgets of 75 ministries/departments of government resources allocatedfordisasterriskreduction.InIndiaastudythattrackedallocationofresourceson National accountingsystemsgenerallydonotgeneratedisaggregateddataformonitoringthe per centofallocationsonembeddedschemeswererelated toaddressingtheunderlyingriskfactors. cent ofallocationsondedicatedPAPswerespent disaster responseandpreparedness,nearly80 are separatebudgetarycodes.Contrarytogeneralperceptions, itwasfoundthatwhilenearly84per DRR elements in PAPs are so embedded that it is not possible to quantify them precisely, unless there Tracking publicinvestmentondisasterriskreductioninIndia Box V-4 Box :Source Chakrabarti, 2012. 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Financial Year 0.29% HFA-1 HFA-5 83.9% Dedicated schemes Total Budget Allocations Budget allocationsfordisasterriskmanagement,INRbillion 1.10% HFA-3 10,208.3 11,087.5 12,377.3 5,143.4 5,639.9 6,805.2 7,508.8 1.20% HFA-2 Dedicated Schemes 114.2 117.1 13.52% 58.3 68.6 62.7 70.6 95.8 HFA-4 54

Rs.316578.5 prevention accounted on for average 76per investment on DRR, disaster mitigation and from 0.38to0.69per cent. Ofthetotal management rose todisasterrisk devoted period, the proportion ofthe national budget 1.13 1.22 0.92 0.94 0.94 1.03 0.95 HFA-4 Rs.13299.36 79.8% crores % HFA-2 crores 3.5% Embeded schemes Embedded Schemes 1,235.7 1,505.3 2,227.8 2,304.9 3,302.5 3,728.4 3,962.7 Rs.66394.42 24.03 26.69 32.74 30.70 32.35 33.63 32.02 16.7% HFA-3 crores % 155

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

cent, followed by disaster preparedness (12.7 – partial dispersal of tasks and resources from the per cent), research, education and training central to local government with no devolution (5.8 per cent), early warning systems (3.3 per of authority – as, for example, in Cambodia, cent), institutional capacity building (0.8 per Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. A stronger cent), community participation for DRR (0.7 form is ‘devolution’ which also involves partial per cent) and disaster management planning dispersal of resources and authority – as in (0.5 per cent). In 2011, about 14 per cent of Bangladesh, India, and Viet Nam. The strongest the DRR budget was mobilized from foreign form is ‘autonomy’ where for certain functions loans and grants, mostly for construction of the government disperses tasks, resources and flood control facilities and infrastructure. authority – as in Indonesia and the Philippines – a model particularly appropriate for countries • India – A study55 that analysed expenditure with vast territories and dispersed islands and based on the HFA classification found that archipelagos. 38 schemes of eight ministries or departments • India – The Disaster Management Act were for ‘dedicated’ schemes (all for disaster of India has created disaster management risk management).56 In addition, 75 ministries authorities at national, state and district or departments had 85 ‘embedded’ schemes levels, but stopped short of entrusting specific which had elements of risk reduction. In responsibilities to rural and urban local self- 2011-2012 these amounted to $2.1 billion-32 governing institutions. per cent of the total government budget, so • Indonesia – The Law Concerning Disaster around one-third of the budget was spent on Management provided for the creation of schemes that had some elements of disaster regional disaster management agencies and risk reduction. further outlined the rights and obligations of communities and business establishments. Governments can better integrate disaster • The Philippines – The Philippine Act has management in finance and budgets by stepping created provincial, city, and municipal disaster up direct or dedicated public and private risk reduction and management councils and investments, while also recalibrating existing provided these councils with structured offices development schemes in different sectors to and funds. This was considered necessary to optimize their potential for reducing disaster enable them to discharge their responsibilities risks.57 in widely dispersed island settlements.

Decentralization should promote good governance Decentralization as it can improve service delivery, involve citizens and make the system more open and transparent. DRR should not remain centralized in the Further it can promote community-based risk national government. It should be a joint assessment, risk reduction and preparedness and responsibility of all levels of government – enable effective utilization of local knowledge national and local – with the participation and and resources. In addition it improves two-way engagement of all stakeholders and communities. risk communication between local and national Decentralization in the Asia-Pacific region takes a levels. It enables participation of multiple number of forms. The weakest is ‘deconcentration’ stakeholders including civil society, community-

156 allocations for local governments. local for allocations management,risk budget 20had dedicated only responsible disaster local governments legally for had made local that although86countries oftheHFA review The mid-term found without effective engagement withstakeholders. power andresources, orithas remained formal been topdown without effective devolution of take hold. has decentralization Eithervertical hasyet decentralization to of vertical-horizontal sectors.all In most countries, however, this mix –among stakeholders across all decentralization andinformal bydecentralization horizontal To beeffective therefore, formal and vertical communities.local makers. Inshort, itempowers decentralization based organizations, leaders andotheropinion local

ESCAP Photo 58 earthquakes, –asprovided cyclones floodsand from safety hazards natural likestructural have revisedtheirbuildingcodestoincorporate example,only ahandfulofmunicipalitiesfor programmes.and implementlocal-level InIndia, ortodesign risks toassesslocal the capacity authorities.local Mostmunicipal lack authorities and institutionalthe technical capacities of the for strengthening efforts continuous andsystematic by mustDecentralization alsobesupported scattered pilot projects. NGOs whohave and beenmanagingsmall resources, leavingtheagenda inthehandsof thenecessary management butfailtoallocate a commitment community-based disaster for and action. make National often Governments have a largeMost countries gap between policy 157

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

in the National Building Code.59 The collapse of But it also means enhancing the supervisory the multi-storey Rana Plaza garment factory in and enforcement capacity of officials in different Bangladesh, for example, was in part a consequence sectors and at all levels of government. of weak municipal administration. Many more such buildings in different hazard zones across Capacity building for disaster risk reduction is Asia and the Pacific have been described as a massive task that has to be undertaken in an ‘weapons of mass destruction’.60 Building codes organized and systematic manner. It will mean have to be enforced by local authorities – such assessing capacity gaps – for all sectors and all responsibilities can neither be transferred to types of hazard, and working out the strategies regional or national governments nor delegated to fill them. For high-level policymakers – to civil society or NGOs. legislative, ministerial and bureaucratic – some capacities can be upgraded through sensitization programmes. For middle-level officials, capacities Capacity building at all levels can be refreshed through knowledge- and information-based programmes. For technical Capacity development for disaster risk reduction experts, capacities can be strengthened through should not be limited to the national agency skills development. For common citizens and for disaster management. It must permeate communities, they can be developed through all sectors, at all levels and for all types of awareness programmes. This would require hazards, natural and man-made (Figure V- large number of trainers – and programmes 1). In the case of construction, for example, for training the trainers. designing or retrofitting buildings so as to be earthquake resistant will mean increasing the At the same time countries will want to improve capacities of architects, engineers and masons. their institutional expertise. Universities and other institutions of higher learning can develop Figure V-1 academic programmes in various disciplines to Capacity building framework for disaster develop a pool of professionals on disaster risk risk management management, while research institutions can take up scientific, policy and applied research.

Several countries in Asia and the Pacific have created specialized institutes for training on Multisectoral disaster management. In India, for example, the National Institute of Disaster Management has been developing capacities across sectors at national and state levels, while China’s National Disaster Risk Reduction is providing Multi-hazard Multi-level similar training. In Singapore the Civil Defence Academy provides specialized training for disaster response, specifically for urban fire management. In the Philippines the work is done by the Crisis Management Institute which is part of

158 demonstrated through theESCAP’s Multi- warning, disasterpreparednessfor andearly as resources, exampleby for poolingresources make more efficientuseoflimited public Chapter 3, work can together to countries (Chapter 4). Similarly, ashighlighted in (RESAP) anditsRegional DroughtMechanism Programme Development Sustainable for as ESCAP’s Applications Regional Space knowledge sharing andtechnology,for such There are good examples of regional initiatives stages ofimplementationvarious (Box V-5). development initiatives DRR for that are at lessons. There are capacity several regional level progress, andsharing peerreviews undertaking on and reporting monitoring be useful for national processes. cooperation would Such are, otherwise, accessible to inform not easily methods, tools, products and practices that DRR for place theirdemandsandsupply houseswhere could countries asclearing serve work. also can Regional platforms learning actions oravoiding thatmay certain not right one doingthings anothercouldbeusefulfor have cross-border impacts. from Learning reduction,disaster risk as disasters frequently cooperation.case in the This isparticularly and genuinepartnerships foster anddurable positioned are to Regional platforms uniquely learning Cross-border that have lowcountries coping capacity. programmes withother their capacity-building China, IndiaandIndonesia tohelp them share withtheinstitutions in initiative ispartnering Network ofKnowledge andInnovation Centres now beingset up. ESCAP through itsRegional the DisasterManagement Training Centre is Disaster Relief Training Ground. In Myanmar the National College. Defence Indonesia hasa disaster risk reduction.disaster risk mainstreaming of14guidancenotesfor series Pro Vention a hasalsodeveloped Consortium n external relationsexternal andinstitutional capacity. planning,geographical management, project cycle areas as: such suggesting policy key policy, strategy, produced by otherinstitutionsexample, –for pursued.systematically have also been Guidelines reductionrisk indevelopment, but these were not disaster integrating general guidelines for develop of Action were in2005some made efforts to Following the adoption oftheHyogo Framework through regional poolingfacilities. insurance addressing shared andrisks vulnerabilities examples ofcountries, inthePacific, especially Climate Preparedness. There are also good donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disasterand planning commission orasimilarinstitution. plan may belaiddown by thenational management inanationalrisk development for disaster overarching framework The strategic Strategic frameworks V-2).(Figure plan; national guidelines; guidelines and sectoral withinthenationalframework development involve three interconnected processes: astrategic capacity.country’s Ingeneral, however, itwill hazards faced, ofdevelopment, thelevel and the depend upon national circumstances –on the DRRintegrating into development planning will It isclear, however, thattheactual practice of development planning (Box V-5). and regional, DRR integrating for into initiatives from many otherinstitutions, global S trateg at i o n al i c

gu frame i del 62 in w There have also been es or k s

a n d

61 The The

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Box V-5 Initiatives for integrating disaster reduction in development planning

There have been a number of initiatives, global and regional, to help countries integrate disaster risk reduction into development planning. These include:

• ADPC − the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) has been promoting the agenda of Priority Implementation Partnerships for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in different sectors of development. The first phase (2005-2007) was taken up in the Philippines, Cambodia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic; the second phase (2008-2011) in Bhutan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Sri Lanka along with regional-level programmes. In the third phase (2012-2015) the programme was extended to issues of agriculture, infrastructure, urban development, health and financial services, followed by a programme for integrating disaster risk reduction with climate change adaptation in development.

• ASEAN − The Association of South East Asian Nations adopted the AADMER Work Programme which included assistance to the member States in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into national development policies, plans and sectoral programmes.

• ESCAP – The Regional Commission has launched a regional programme on the integration of disaster risk reduction into development planning to support member States’ efforts to create more disaster-resilient economies and societies. The programme has brought together key ministries with mandates in national development planning and financing and the nodal agency in charge of disaster risk reduction policy. These can then engage in dialogue with other sectoral ministries to integrate disaster risk reduction into multiple sectors. The programme develops guidelines for integrating disaster risk reduction into multisectoral and subnational development planning. It also develops tools for pre-disaster risk assessment for development planning, and for rapid post-disaster damage assessment for recovery planning.

• SAARC − In 2006, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) adopted its Comprehensive Disaster Management Framework, which aimed at ‘mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the development policies and practices of the government at all levels’. As a follow up measure, the SAARC Disaster Management Centre developed the SAARC Road Map on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Development through a consultative process. The implementation of the roadmap did not make much headway.

• SIDS − In September 2014 the third International Conference on small island developing States (SIDS) adopted the SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action. This called for mainstreaming policies and programmes related to disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and development.63

• SOPAC − The Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) adopted the Pacific Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Framework for Action 2005-2015 which called for member governments to strengthen policies and plans for the mitigation and management of natural disasters through the development of National Action Plans.

• UNDP − The Global Report of the UNDP on ‘Reducing Disaster Risks: A Challenge for Development’ recommended that disaster risk analysis must be conducted for every development programme.64

• World Bank − Track-II of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery of the World Bank was designed to mainstream disaster risk reduction in development in priority countries. Activities focused on some of the basic issues of disaster management like hazard mapping and national DRR policy.65

160 development Interconnected processesforintegratingdisasterriskreductionintosustainable • • of major development projects. disaster impactissued guidelines for assessments guidelines. generic such developed But some have development sectors. has Asyet nocountry programme, andproject across activity all and departments. every to These shouldapply ministriesin consultation sectoral withall andguidelines generalprinciples develop can risk management on disaster The nodal agency National guidelines it in subsequent plans. its Tenth Five Year but did not include Plan Planning Commission ofIndiadidsoin The Pacific region aframework.have such developed national planning commissionsfew in the Asia- institutions and experts.and technical Thus far, and departments, state governments, scientific stakeholders, ministries thecentral including inconsultationdeveloped relevant with all (five totenyears)planning cycle may be amediumtolong-term for This framework FigureV-2 produced theDisasterImpact Assessment the DisasterManagement Centre has Lanka Sri development projects. of all analysis Disaster Impact andRiskAssessment for Bangladesh – has introduced The Government – For development projects, all Strategic frameworkof national development management in disaster risk plan National guidelineson disaster riskreduction across allsectorsof mainstreaming development • • mitigation. prevention measures risk and for structural andnon- structural planningvarious for ofresources theallocation and prioritizing and municipalities ofdistricts vulnerabilities assessing the index as a tool for disaster risk Management has developed a Agency I by a body ofexperts. agencies than anindependent evaluation rather self-assessment by theproject implementing stepforward, important though thisis even creating risks.potential for new This wasan disasters onof natural theproject butalsoits theprobable notonly effects would include on its hazards, and vulnerabilities. risks This million must provide complete information project costingmorenew thanINR1,000 Naturalfor Disaster Impact Assessment. Any List hasissued aCheck ofFinance Ministry National the Disaster Management Authority India –Ontherecommendation ofthe in other sectors. in theroad sectorandistobeintroduced impact assessment. This has been fieldtested and maintenance, post-disaster andanalysing into designs, construction during monitoring risks, reduction risk measures incorporating checklist. –assessing four parts This isin ndonesia Sectoral guidelinesfor disaster riskreduction in specificsectorsof mainstreaming development – The National Disaster 66

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The UN General Assembly has established an • Cross-cutting sectors (poverty reduction, open-ended intergovernmental working group for gender issues) developing a set of indicators for measuring global • Multisectoral planning processes (urban and progress in the implementation of the Sendai rural development) Framework – in conjunction with the work of the Inter-Agency Expert Group on Sustainable The following discussion illustrates how disaster Development Goal Indicators. This could also risk management can be integrated into different include indicators for measuring progress in sectors. integrating disaster risk reduction in development.

Sectoral guidelines Social sector

In consultation with the national authority on Across the region a wide range of development disaster management, each sectoral ministry and and social protection schemes have helped to department can develop its own guidelines on reduce the vulnerabilities of large segments disaster risk reduction. This would ensure that of population, enhance their capacities and while the process is owned and driven by the reduce the risks of disasters. But some have unique demands of the sector, it also conforms also created new risks. For example, many new to the overall national framework. schools built in earthquake zones in China and Pakistan subsequently collapsed. This could As a minimum, each sector needs to integrate have been avoided had they been constructed disaster risk management principles in the following building codes for earthquake resistance. following three areas: Similarly, many people have been lifted out of – Policies, strategies and directives – Integrating poverty as a result of government subsidies and disaster risk reduction into sectoral development credit schemes that they have used to acquire plans and budget income-generating assets – only to sink back – Key infrastructure – Risk reduction measures into poverty when the assets were destroyed to protect facilities and assets during floods or cyclones. These losses would – Continuity plans – For maintaining critical have been reduced had the assets been secured services and supporting timely recovery and through insurance or other securities. reconstruction Health Although the relevant sectors will differ according to national circumstances, broadly they are likely All health sector programmes, activities, projects to cover: and critical infrastructure should be protected • Social sectors (health, education, housing and from the risks of disasters, and further human settlements) strengthened so they respond during emergencies. • Productive sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, • New buildings – Health care facilities, such as business) hospitals, primary health centres, dispensaries, • Infrastructure sectors (roads and bridges, water and trauma centres should be built following supply, power transmission and distribution, disaster resistance principles and building communications) codes, even if this adds to costs.

162 • • • • personnel. doctors,for nursesandotherpara-medical education ofmedical in thecurriculum management should beincluded mass casualty –Disaster health care and education Medical beavailable to meet any emergency.always should generators withadequate fuel supply and equipped.staffed facilities Back-up like facilities shouldbemaintainedandfully Maintenance andsupplies –Healthcare disasters. during not bedisrupted will they other fixtures that such shouldbeinstalled and power lines, air-conditioning ductsand –Gas, features Non-structural water, sewerage resilience.structural buildings shouldberetrofitted toensure and, reviewed be periodically where necessary, should safety Existing buildings –Structural a professional pool ofexpertise. disaster prevention andpreparedness andraise sufficient resourcesof tohelp create aculture activities beprotected. shouldalsohave They have theirinfrastructure, programmes, and universities should andmanagement schools to schools from systems Education primary Education • part inregular drills. part management andprocedures skills andtake health care and in mass casualty in emergency professionals and workers ought to be trained Hospital administrators andhealthcare procedure todealwithany emergency. have amanagement planandanoperating procedures –Each hospital should Emergency 163

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

• Disaster management education – All children intrusion – with impacts on rural livelihoods should be aware of the hazards they face and national food and nutritional security. At the and the measures they can take to protect same time, agriculture itself can increase disaster themselves at school and at home. This would risks – through oil erosion, land degradation require revising school curricula, developing and deforestation, for example, and overuse of text books and teaching aides, and training groundwater. teachers • Advanced courses – Disaster risk reduction Making agriculture more resistant to the risks requires advanced scientific, technical of drought and flood will require a range of and professional skills on subjects like programmes. These can address such issues as: earthquake engineering, meteorology, protecting agricultural infrastructure; soil and hydrology, communications technology, water conservation, water harvesting, improved disaster medicine, psycho-social care, and varieties of seeds and bio-fertilizers, drip irrigation, emergency management. Colleges, universities, and weather forecasts. Agricultural research and and technical and professional institutes should extension services can also be reoriented to find design the necessary courses in all key areas innovative ways of adapting to the impact of of specialization. climate change. Many Asia-Pacific countries • Safe buildings – Each new school building are taking measures to address climate change should be designed to be resistant to adaptation and disaster risk reduction. There earthquakes and other disasters. And existing are innovative traditional and modern practices schools that are unsafe should be retrofitted. that can be disseminated for the benefits of Given the scale of the need, education farming communities. departments may initially have to prioritize schools in high-risk zones before extending Business the programme nationally. Driven by trade and investment, and continued demands for cost reduction, businesses have been Productive Sectors extending their activities across the region, often in coastal and other disaster-prone areas.67 In Agriculture and businesses are exposed to disasters general, businesses, including industry, trade and and can also create the conditions for disasters. commerce, tend to take little account of the Most are owned by private entrepreneurs but risks of disasters – though they stand to make governments can offer support and create heavy losses from disruptions to supply chains. conditions that will enable them to minimize Few small and medium-sized enterprises have risks. It is essential that these risks are assessed continuity plans to deal with such situations; and and analysed in a comprehensive manner. only a few global corporations collaborate for this purpose with national and local governments. Agriculture The ESCAP report, Resilient Business for Resilient Nations and Communities, called for a paradigm Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to natural shift in the way private sector perceives and 68 hazards like flood, drought, and saline water manages disaster risks (Box V-6).

164 more closely with governments. more closely For needtowork businesses will this purpose of disasters. takingintoaccount therisk included which werecontinuity issuedin2012ISO22301 incentives. International standards business for guidelines and developed the Government Japan, example, for the2011earthquake following need tobeaddressed inbusinessschools. In andforecasting.analysis These are issuesthat planningandinvestment,corporate business planning, intooverall andfactor disasterrisk or improve andresiliency businesscontinuity sector should be encouraged to adopt The private protect themselves but also help make society protect butalsohelpmakesociety themselves Now and not only need to go they further social responsibilities. their corporate discharging disaster relief andrehabilitation of –aspart so by funds orotherresources contributing for andbusiness associations have done enterprises A paradigmshiftforbusiness :Source ESCAP, ADPCandR3ADY, 2015. to SMEs. legal andregulatoryframeworks,timelyriskinformation andotherincentivessupport,particularly benefits. Governmentsshouldthereforefostergreater privatesectorinvolvementbyprovidingsound corporate social responsibility initiatives, they should choose interventions that provide wider societal is importantforthesurvivalofbothbusinessesand society atlarge.Insteadofengaginginlimited investments. Businesses also need to be held accountable fortheir own share of risk creation. This paradigm shiftfromreactiveandresponsiveinterventions towardsproactive,risk-sensitivebusiness Rather thanremainingpassiveplayers,theprivatesector mustactivelyreducerisk.Thiswillrequirea businesses aremyopic,focusingonshort-termgainsinstead oflong-termbenefitsforall. of thethreatsthatdisastersposetotheirinterests,nevertheless,aimingmaximizeprofits,many that hascollectivebenefitsforsocietyatlarge.Althoughtheprivatesectorbecomemoreaware The privatesectorandgovernments,nationallocal,canworktogethertowardsasustainablefuture Box V-6 Box 69 Traditionally, rural and urban development, andurban rural renewable energy. aswaterandsanitation,in othersectorssuch andNGOs.society be replicated models can Such involving government, sector, the corporate civil partnerships’public-private organizations –hybrid in thisarea isthe5Pmodelof ‘pro-poor- droughts, floods, andsea storms. One innovation and other communities of to copewith therisks chains.supply This enables farmers, fishermen breeding, processing, packaging, storage, and ofirrigation,technologies plantation, hatcheries, in disaster-prone areas by introducing modern For example, have they helpedboostincomes horticulture, poultry, and other sectors. fisheries resources areassizeable inagro-business, in rural businesses areSome already doing so, by investing activities’. reduction sectorindisasterrisk the private ‘public-private tobetterengage partnerships as awhole more resilient. HFAThe prescribed 70 71

165

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Infrastructure Poverty reduction

Rapid economic development across Asia and Working with poor communities, governments the Pacific has required extensive infrastructure. should analyse the major disaster risks faced by This includes roads and bridges, railways and the poor, as well as their current survival and metros, seaports and airports, power plants and coping strategies. They can then select appropriate transmission lines, gas and oil storage depots, measures to prevent or reduce those risks. This water supply systems and telecommunication has important implications for poverty alleviation networks, schools and hospitals, administrative programmes. These should incorporate elements headquarters and emergency operation centres.72 to protect income-generating activities from the Much of this was constructed many years back financial impact of disaster – such as micro-credit and has yet to be upgraded for resilience to and micro-insurance. Bangladesh, for example, has current risks. This has left many countries developed tools for participatory risk assessment, vulnerable. Examples in 2014 included floods focussing on the multidimensional nature of and landslides in Nepal and floods in Solomon poverty with coordinated involvement of all Islands which disrupted vital infrastructure development partners at the community level and including roads, water and sanitation facilities. a strong presence of civil society and women.

All new critical infrastructure should be constructed There should also be schemes to provide with a high margin of safety and all existing livelihoods for the poor should disaster strike. critical infrastructure, in both public and private In India, for example, the National Rural sectors, should be audited and upgraded to Employment Guarantee Programme has been international standards to cope with worst-case used to provide livelihood support to people scenarios. This will require a comprehensive affected by droughts, floods and cyclones. strategy – mapping all critical infrastructure, reviewing standards and codes, reducing exposure Gender and strengthening resilience.73 All the major infrastructure ministries and departments–roads Women should be involved at all stages of and highways, shipping, railways, communications, disaster risk management. At present most and energy –will need to incorporate disaster governments have limited understanding of risk reduction in current and future activities. how gender relations affect risk accumulation and coping capabilities. They can start with a careful analysis of gender-based in equalities Cross-cutting issues and relations in society and the attitudes that affect women’s vulnerability to hazard impacts Many development priorities cover a number of and their capacities for recovery. sectors. Poverty reduction, for example, concerns agriculture, employment, and industry, as well Deciding what risks to reduce and how to do as multisectoral processes like rural and urban so will mean considering the responsibilities of development. This is also true of other issues like women during and after disasters, and ensuring gender equality, child protection and disability. gender-sensitive risk communication messages and programmes.

166 people vulnerable tomultiplepeople vulnerable risks. Most cities slums indangerous areas thatare makingpoor inthemushrooming especially vulnerabilities Urban areas and have ofrisks complex systems Urban development areas. andurban rural However, between differ the issues generally ensure community-based disasterpreparedness. are they bestplacedcoping mechanisms to and vulnerabilities and knowledge oflocal disaster strikes. thegreatest experience With tobethefirstand are responders likely when have to execute disaster preparedness plans reduction governments. lieswithlocal They disasterrisk for oftheresponsibility Much M ult ESCAP Photo i sectoral

local

pla nnin g Another problem ismaintenance, is which and storms. hazards like earthquakes to natural standardsto safe resistance norbeendesigned for hasnot conformed most construction Historically congested buildingsis unsafe areas. in thickly The biggest sourcerisk in Asia-Pacific of cities buildings. should nothave high-rise areas prone toliquefaction earthquakes during construction,plains should notbeused for and soil water, hazards. andnatural For example, flood characteristics, andsub- ofsurface theavailability location, elevation, composition, geological soil sensitive,be disasterrisk takingintoaccount forests orparks.and city plansshould Such commercial, residential, institutional, recreational, as beused –such can ofthe city zone particular a for which regulations that define the purpose have masterplansandmany have detailed 167

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

often hampered by archaic tenancy and land housing credit and insurance agencies to ensure ceiling legislation. As a result many dilapidated independent inspections and compliance with buildings have collapsed even without a natural building codes. Home purchasers too, if they disaster event. are aware of the dangers can put pressure on builders to comply with the codes. The first priority in most cities is the preparation and enforcement of building codes. Given the Rural development lack of capacity of most municipal authorities this is a daunting task. But it is important to Most Asian governments have ambitious make a start. Each city needs to develop its programmes in rural areas for alleviating poverty own strategy to identify and reduce the stock and reducing vulnerabilities in the face of natural of unsafe buildings. This may require demolition calamities like drought, floods, and cyclones. A or retrofitting – for which there could be both few, like India and Viet Nam, have combined incentives and penalties for non-conformance. rural development schemes with relief activities like food for work programmes, but in most The HFA prescribe ‘incorporation of DRR in countries this has not been very systematic. the planning and management of disaster-prone All schemes for rural development and poverty human settlements’ and ‘revision of existing or alleviation need to be restructured so that they development of new building codes’ with priority also reduce the risks of disasters. focus on ‘informal housing in high-risk areas’. This did trigger some new initiatives but has not made a substantial difference. The region Climate change adaptation still has rapidly growing informal settlements and many unsafe construction practices. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) are based on a common Future policy should be based on a more platform of sustainable development. After 1990 comprehensive framework. This could include: they branched in separate directions. DRR relaxing land ceiling laws to release more land took the route of the International Decade for for housing; granting titles to slum dwellers to Disaster Reduction, the Yokohama Strategy and encourage investment in housing; lifting arbitrary the Hyogo Framework of Action. CCA took rent control to improve the conditions of houses; the pathway of IPCC, UNFCCC, the Kyoto developing satellite towns to decongest cities; Protocol and the Conference of Parties. The providing subsidized housing for the poor; two agendas converged again, however, when and developing capacity and accountability for IPPC-4 concluded that a changing climate enforcing building by laws. Giving urban dwellers would have implications for disasters and the title to their property encourages them to invest Bali Action Plan adopted at the COP-13 in in their safety, and lifting rent controls creates 2007 included ‘disaster reduction strategies and incentives for landlords to comply with building means to address loss and damage associated 74 codes, since they can then recoup the cost. with climate change impacts’.

When enforcement is weak due to poor In 2004 IPCC-5 came out with its special report governance, it may be possible to engage on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and

168 :Source IPCC, 2012. Synergies betweendisasterriskmanagementandclimatechangeadaptation • and monitoring. implementation arrangements andguidelines for converge plansofaction, withclear funding inparticular, level At thelocal thetwo must (Figuremore efficientandcost-effective V-3). combining tobe thetwo processes islikely and alternative livelihood development. Thus, protection, saline embankments and bio-shields, disasters, asdrought such proofing, flood those related to hydrometeorological particularly with adaptationhave similarities programmes – reductionMany ofthedisasterrisk measures tools to assess, analyse, monitor andaddress risks. andhave common aim toreduce vulnerability DRR andCCA have anumberofsynergies. Both Risk Reduction. Framework attention intheSendai Disaster for to inpassingtheHFA, itreceived more referred wasonly change Although climate Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. FigureV-3 Action Plan that integrated DRR that integrated andCCAAction Plan endorsed the world’s Strategic National first Maldives –In2011theGovernment Climate Change Anthropogenic Variability CLIMATE Natural ▲ Weather and Climate Events Greenhouse GasEmissions CLIMATE RISKS Vulnerability • • Exposure policies, and implementation integration. for building,capacity financing, institutions and levels.local consider as will issues such They issuesattheregional,change national and management andclimate disaster risk integrate to ajointregional launch will strategy Pacific IslandStates –In2015these countries and response levels. at all capabilities risks, andenhancingdisasterpreparedness disaster risks, projected climate including arrangements institutionalize reducing for thatwould interaliaManagement Plan National DisasterRiskReduction and promote, andimplementacomprehensive todevelop,Act mandatestheState which Disaster RiskReduction andManagement year passed the Philippine the Government programmes andinitiatives. following The change reductiondisaster risk intoclimate ofintegrating theimportance emphasized passed the Climate Change Act which The Philippines–In2009the on governance anddecentralization. A uniquefeature ofthisplanwasitsfocus andconsultativethrough aninclusive process. Disaster DEVELOPMENT Climate Change Disaster Risk Management Adaptation ▲ 169

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

As a follow up to this process each country Making these structures resistant to earthquakes, should explore how the common elements in landslides, flood or cyclones is a marginal cost. DRR and CCA can be integrated through In the case of earthquake resistant buildings, for better coordination in planning, design and example, this has been estimated at 2.5 per cent implementation. for the structural elements and 0.8 per cent for non-structural elements such as partitions and New funding opportunities for integrating CCA ceilings.75 The best projects are likely to have with DRR should result from the Green Climate multiple benefits (Box V-7). But the processes Fund which to be finalized in the new climate may be demanding in other ways – redesigning agreement in December 2015. programmes and projects and developing new standards, codes, guidelines and capacities.

The financial benefits of While it may be straightforward to estimate disaster risk reduction the costs, it is more difficult to calculate the financial benefits. The damages and losses avoided Integrating disaster reduction in each are inherently uncertain; they depend on local development sector will require additional circumstances, and on the distribution of losses expenditure, though not large sums. Countries between different groups. In most countries there are routinely constructing schools, hospitals, is very little data on vulnerabilities and impacts roads, and bridges, and often in hazard zones. and values. There are also debates around the

Box V-7 A dual-purpose project: storm water management in Malaysia

Dual-purpose projects provide direct economic benefits while also reducing the risks of disasters. One of the most innovative examples is the 9.7-kilometre storm water management and road tunnel in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This has three levels: the lowest for drainage and the upper two for road traffic. This reduces traffic jams during rush hours and also solves the problem of flash floods. This has another advantage – it ensures maintenance of a drain that otherwise would be used only sporadically.76

HOLDING BASIN

STORAGE RESERVOIR

HOLDING NO STORM BASIN

STORAGE RESERVOIR

HOLDING YEARLY STORM BASIN

STORAGE RESERVOIR

MAJOR STORM

Source: Mott Macdonald Group, 2009.

170 r the 2011floods in Thailand. Hewlett-Packard totheir cost following learned Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Texas and instruments when amajor disaster occurs, ascompanies like revealed toinvestors only isoften The risk withhidden contingent liabilities.come bundled attractive may locations investments inotherwise properly. assessed or priced always As a result, generally take into account the external societal take into account societal theexternal generally ofreturn not rate itwill hazards initsinternal business factorsEven thecostsof ifaprivate aburden. always risks. are Not risks harmful, all norare they andtheassociated dealing withopportunities businesses. for straightforward areThey always In principle, assessmentshouldbemore risk development. has slowed down human, socialoreconomic research on how of investment alack inDRR any oreconometric theoretical There ishardly research.matured into asound subject ofpolicy Overall, theeconomics ofDRR have notyet social sciences. not connected examined by tocostinformation isproduced by sciences and analysis the natural quantified. and risk information Mostofthe ifthese areand even mentioned are they rarely the social, economic orenvironmental benefits, of analysis resistant buildingsdonotinclude as embankments,such or earthquake sea walls Generally, projects proposals engineering for discount rates. valuing non-marketchoice of benefits and the avoided lossesand quantifying for techniques pol i s k i t reduct i cal

eco i 77 o However the risks are not are However the risks not n n omy

of

d i saster

in order to maximise short-term gains.’ in order to maximise short-term isdiscounted excessively means thatdisaster risk and of broader in economic externalities activity disaster risk. risk of disaster The inadequate pricing massive future discounting of all risk, including concerns about future sustainability, resulting in accumulation capital term continue tooutweigh concluded: general,‘In short- for opportunities As theUN’s Report 2015Global Assessment risk information”.risk budget constraintsmayofthe limitutilization wouldinformation lead to increased project costs, on HFA progress: policiesbased on risk “If expressed in the submission Islands of Solomon assistance.humanitarian This dilemmais well towards oriented ad hocandheavily is still funds, andinternational development assistance limited have very Many countries developing cause ispressure The most obvious on resources. requirements of disaster response. readily providewill themore funds for obvious reluctant toinvest reduction inrisk though they these circumstances, have been some policymakers existingrisks.that thesedonotexacerbate In protected fromfully ofdisastersand therisks investmentsensure thatpublicandprivate are legal, to andgovernance mechanisms regulatory Asia-Pacific donothave countries developing public interest. Yet may they failto do so. Most a longer andbroader term andact inthe view should beable todo so–totake theirpart for or environmental itiscreating. risks Governments priorities. And in competitive politics democratic more immediate otherseemingly demands for Policymakers have to deal with competing reduction.investments disaster risk for yet convinced aboutthe benefits oflarge-scale recurring losses due todisasters may not absorb whose economic base has enabledthemto 80 Even developed countries Even countries developed 78 79

171

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

they are likely to be influenced by the power Transport and Tourism has also established a of various institutions, as well as by pressures comprehensive process which ensures that all from business, civil society, the intelligentsia and construction projects are designed such that other stakeholders. no new risks are created while existing risks are reduced through co-benefits (Figure V-4). One countervailing force should have been the various newly created disaster management There is also considerable empirical evidence of institutions. But even these tend to give priority the financial benefits of mitigation from other to response. This is generally because of the Asia-Pacific countries.82 backgrounds of their members who, often from • Bangladesh – A community-based disaster the military, have more experience in this area. preparedness programme implemented over But government institutions also have an eye 15 years had a CBR of between 3.05 and to public perceptions. Disasters averted do not 4.90 – an even this calculation excluded exist, but disasters responded to are very visible many benefits due to difficulties in collecting in the news. data.83 • China – In the 1960s and 1970s, the Nevertheless opinion is shifting. Some of this Government invested $3.15 billion for flood is due to the success of preparedness projects control measures that are estimated to have – which in the past decade have dramatically averted damages of over $12 billion.84 reduced disaster mortalities, especially for • India – A combined disaster mitigation and hydrometeorological disasters for which early preparedness programme in Bihar and Andhra warning is possible. At the same time mounting Pradesh had a CBR of 3.76.85 economic losses combined with the spectre of • Indonesia – An integrated water management climate change are bringing disaster risk reduction and flood protection scheme for Semarang and climate change adaptation into the centre had an internal rate of return of 23 per cent stage of public policy discourse. Other positive and a CBR of 2.5.86 signs include the success of regional and global • Nepal – A livelihood-centred disaster risk platforms on disaster risk reduction, and the reduction programme had a CBR estimated unprecedented participation of countries and in 2011 of 2.04.87 It should also be noted other stakeholders in the recently concluded that in the Nepal earthquake of 2015 many World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. buildings and infrastructure constructed with earthquake resistant technology survived In Asia and the Pacific, one pioneering country – including 160 school buildings in the has been Japan. During the 1960s, Japan invested Kathmandu valley retrofitted under an ADB- heavily in various structural and non-structural supported school safety programme.88 measures for disaster risk reduction – around 8 • Viet Nam – A mangrove plantation project per cent of the national budget. Without these in 1994 which cost $1.1 million significantly measures the impact of earthquakes in 1995 and reduced the costs of maintenance of dykes 2011 would have been much worse.81 In 2004 by $7.3 million per year as well as saving the Government issued Technical Guidelines lives and property.89 for Cost Benefit Analysis of Public Work Projects. The Ministry of Land Infrastructure

172 Tourism Japan: processforprojectevaluationofMinistryLand,Infrastructure,Transportand will open upwindowswill ofopportunity, andthe goals andtargets,has given clear the SDGs of theAsia-Pacific region. Sendai The Framework economyspace in the political of the countries reductionDisaster risk is set to occupy a larger :Source World Bank, 2012b. FigureV-4 T he w ay

ahead

Evaluation Stage Analyzing Stage Planning Stage

Yes ▼ Comprehensive andsystematicevaluation - Implementationenvironment - Impartiality ii) Analysis ofnon-monetaryimpacts i)Cost/benefitanalysis - Effectiveness oftheproject - Projectadoptioncriteria - Consistencywithlocaldevelopmentplans - Coordinationamongstakeholders - Draftprojectplanincludingalternatives Comprehensive evaluationoftheproject Publication ofplanandevaluationresult Necessary toreexamine? Adoption oftheproject Present situation Project planning To beadopted? Project needs ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ Yes No disaster risk reduction.disaster risk development sectors hasacomponentall for investment in region – toensure thatevery intoaction throughoutthese opportunities the reduction.risk The tasknow istotranslate change adaptation anddisasterof climate dealshould facilitate integration climate new No

▼ Not adopted 173

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

Endnotes

1 United Nations, Report of the Open Working 26 Nepal, 2015.

Group of the General Assembly on Sustainable 27 Development Goals, 2014. Vanuatu, 2015. 28 2 United Nations, 1987. ESCAP based on data from EM-DAT: The OFDA/ CRED International Disaster Database. (Accessed 3 UN General Assembly, A/RES/44/236 dated 22 April 2015). December 1989. 29 ESCAP, 2013a. 4 Yokohama Strategy and Action Plan for a Safer 30 World, 23-27 May 1994. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 2006. 31 5 United Nations, Review of the Yokohama Sudmeier-Rieux and others, 2011. Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, A/ 32 UNEP, 2014. CONF.206/L.1. 33 UNISDR, 2009b. 6 ODI, 2013. 34 UNISDR, 2015b. 7 IFAD, 2009. 35 Sections 69 to 72 of Disaster Management Act of 8 ESCAP, 2013a. Bhutan, 2013. 9 Erdenebat, Eldev-Ochir, 2014. 36 Sections 11, 23 and 31 of the Disaster Management 10 ESCAP, 2013a. Act 2005 of the Republic of India. 37 11 Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2009. Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 24 of 2007 concerning Disaster Management 12 ESCAP, 2013a. 38 Sections 10,17 and 20 Pakistan National Disaster 13 ESCAP, 2015f. Management Act 2010

14 Nepal, 2015. 39 Section 2 of the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, 2010 15 ESCAP, 2013a. 40 16 Article 4 of the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention Ibid. and Control 2013 of Viet Nam, 2013 17 ESCAP, 2015f. 41 Bangladesh, 2012. 18 Solomon Islands, 2014. 42 Sri Lanka Disaster Management Act, 2005. 19 UNISDR, 2015b. 43 Samoa, 2007. 20 Vanuatu, 2015. 44 Article 34 Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act (Act 21 Fiji, 2013. No. 223 of November 1961, as modified in June 2007). 22 ESCAP, 2013a. 45 UNISDR, 2008b. 23 Ibid. 46 None of the national nodal agencies on disaster 24 Ibid. management in the Asia-Pacific has developed guidelines for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction 25 Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2011. into different sectors of development.

174 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 Ibid. Indonesia, 2013. Reduction Strategies, 2006. Mainstreamingfor DisasterMitigation inPoverty A Partnership Disaster Reduction and Recovery: UNISDR, and World Bank, Global Facility for UNDP, 2004. dated 15December2014. initsresolution Assembly no.General A/RES/69/15 The SAMOA Pathway wasendorsed by theUN Benson and Twiggs with Rossetto,Tiziana 2007. La Trobe andDavis, 2005. Bilham andGaur, 2013. therevisions. Building Bye toincorporate Laws out of4000plusmunicipalities inIndiamodified Code ofIndiawasrevisedin2005, butlessthan20 in2001andNational earthquake Building Gujarat resistant the buildingin2002following earthquake Bureau revisedthestandards ofIndianStandards of Mid-Term Review, 2011. UNISDR, Hyogo Framework Action for 2005-2015: reduction 2015-2030. Para Framework 29ofSendai Disaster Risk for Chakrabarti, 2012. Darwanto, 2012b. Kellet, Caravani, andPichon, 2014. Jose, 2012. andCaravani,Kellet 2013. Cambodia, 2008. No. 888dated21June2010. Disaster RiskReduction, 2009-19, Executive Order National on Action Strategic Plan Philippines India, Tenth Five Year (2002-07). Plan UNISDR, 2013a. 89 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74

PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2013. ESCAP, 2013a. ESCAP, 2013d. UNISDR, 2013c. UNISDR, 2009a. ESCAP, ADPCandR3ADY, 2015. 189 billionperyear, bulkofthemintheAsia-Pacific. winds alone would be USD and cyclonic earthquakes estimated thataverage potentiallossesfrom future be made inhazard exposedregions. further The report businessinvestments ofnew would ofdollars trillions Reduction 2013projected thatover thecoming years on DisasterRisk Global AssessmentReport IFRC, 2002. nepalidisaster. schools-earthquake-proof-technology-survive- Available from http://www.adb.org/news/features/ Wilenbockel, 2011. Mechler, 2004. Venton and Venton, 2004. Benson, 1998. IFRC, 2012. andothers,Stigler 2011. Mechler, 20015; UNISDR, 2005; Hochrainer- World Bank, 2012b. Samoa, 2012. UNISDR, 2015b. Benson and Twigg, 2004. World Bank, 2013c. World Bank, 2010b. USAID, 1995. World Bank, 2010b. 175

CHAPTER 5 Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

176 Almario, E.,R.BaquiranandA.Habulan(1992). Alliance DevelopmentWorksandUnitedNationsUniversityInstituteforEnvironmentHumanSecurity(UNU-EHS) Asian DevelopmentBank(2013). Arnold, M.,andC.Burton(2011).Vulnerablegroupsinrecovery.InRecoveringReducingRisksafterNaturalDisasters, Anttila-Huges, JesseK.andSolomonM.Hsiang(2013).Destruction,Disinvestment,Death:EconomicHuman Asian DevelopmentBankandWorld(2011). ______(2014). Australian RedCross(2015).Being preparedsavedourlives.Availablefromhttp://www.redcross.org.au/tc-pam-fabrina. Asian Disaster PreparednessCenter,Global Alliance on AccessibleTechnologiesand Environments andAsia-Pacific Agarwal, Manish(2013).TheopportunityandchallengeofIndia’sinfrastructure:apassagetomodernity. Advanced Centre for Enabling Disaster Risk Reduction (2011). The Roleof Microfinance and Micro Insurance in Active LearningNetworkforAccountabilityandPerformance(2013).EvidenceinHumanitarianAction, Asian DevelopmentBankandInstitute (2013). ______(2015). Schools with Earthquake-proof Technology Survive Nepali Disaster, 12 May. Available from http:// Anderson, MaryandPeterWoodrow(1989).RisingfromtheAshes:DevelopmentStrategiesinTimesofDisaster. Amnesty International(2015).Nepal:Enddiscriminationinearthquakereliefeffort,1June.Availablefromhttps://www. Asian DisasterPreparednessCenter(2006). (2014). WorldRiskReport2014.Bonn:UNU-EHS. (September). PricewaterhouseCoopers. 211-239. Geneva:WorldReconstructionConference. Losses FollowingEnvironmentalDisaster.Availablefromhttp://ssrn.com/abstract=2220501. Philippines: ADB. ADPC. aspx. Accessed18May2015. Cross Red the of Review International researchbrief2roleofmicrofinanceind.pdf. Disaster Management. Research Brief 2. Available from http://www.preventionweb.net/files/20073_ Network forAccountabilityandPerformance. Issues Paper Issues www.adb.org/news/features/schools-earthquake-proof-technology-survive-nepali-disaster. ADB. Response Center amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/06/nepal-end-discrimination-in-earthquake-relief-effort/. 22.pdf http://gaates.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/pdf/DiDRR%20Guideline%20Document%20FINAL%202014%2005%20 Broadcasting Union(2014).Guidelines oninclusivedisasterriskreduction:disabilitiesanddisasters. Availablefrom Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia South in Adaptation and Change Climate of Costs the Assessing . Tokyo:ADBI. References Investing in Resilience: Ensuring a Disaster-Resistant Future Disaster-Resistant a Ensuring Resilience: in Investing Critical Guidelines: Community-based Disaster Risk Management Risk Disaster Community-based Guidelines: Critical , vol.30,issue277(August). 2011 Pakistan Floods: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment Needs and Damage Preliminary Floods: Pakistan 2011 Disasters: Disasters: The Philippine Experience Philippine The Disaster Risk Management in Asia and the Pacific: Pacific: the and Asia in Management Risk Disaster . QuezonCity:Citizens’Disaster . MandaluyongCity,Philippines: . MandaluyongCity, . Bangkok: gridlines .

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192 3...... Overall • Policy • Its • Clarification • Provision • 2. Overall • Analytical • Coverage • esc Bangkok Rajadamnern convenience, at your to: earliest it, and return questionnaire 10200, you could We if this complete it ourmaking issues would appreciate for future readers. useful more THAILA Director and Information The Timeliness • 1. is undertaking an evaluation of this publication, this publication, of evaluation an is undertaking Peett o / o m t Readability • Presentation/format •

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REFERENCES Disasters Without Borders - Regional resilience for sustainable development

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DISASTERS WITHOUT BORDERS Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2015 ISBN: 978-92-1-120699-9 Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will depend critically on greater resilience to to resilience greater on critically will depend Goals Development Sustainable the Achieving of higher levels achieve ways − as countries both works process But the disasters. natural the two how shows This report resilience. in disaster more invest can they development cycle. upward supporting the other in a virtuous − each connected inextricably are objectives countries many strike can disasters out that in Asia and the Pacific also points The report the reduce best therefore can that countries argues Borders without Disasters simultaneously. expertise. and information sharing − together closely work they if impacts the and risks imagery and other satellite valuable providing are countries spacefaring the region’s Already regional many further opportunities for are and there their neighbours, to information cooperation. for insidious. Drought, more are others a huge and sudden shock. But deliver disasters Most on focuses report The disaster. forgotten a often − killer silent and is a slow example, by recognizing be mitigated the impact can how example, for showing, drought agricultural as agriculture Reducing this risk means addressing risk. recurring as a long-term, drought local of the skills of advantage taking − be sustained to needs that ecosystem overall part of an of the land. custodians the ultimate who are people warning. The is timely of risk reduction component a key and other disasters drought For − covering ‘multi-hazard’ are warning systems efficient early that the most argues report that systems of end-to-end elements the key types of risk. It also identifies many different people. vulnerable the most reaching mile’, the ‘last warnings to deliver the right people to is getting the right information risk management part of disaster A critical be can produced being now quantities of data vast how shows at the right times. The report decisions. informed make to and analysed organized integrated in isolation, but closely considered be should not, however, risk reduction Disaster by be affected can sector as every Just planning and programming. with development its activities make to how consider needs to sector so every or floods or cyclones, earthquakes heart of sustainable at the risk reduction disaster places The report resilient. disaster development.