Queensland Major Projects Pipeline 2020 QMCA
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1.3° above average above 1.3° 2019 | Queensland Major Projects Pipeline 2020 A joint initiative QMCA IAQ QLDMPP.COM.AU | i Nowhere else in Australia do infrastructure peak bodies consult so closely with both their respective governments, government-owned corporations and private sector proponents to accurately chart the status of all major projects in their home state. We are proud to introduce The outcome of this collaboration is an authoritative We live in uncertain times. This year Australia has report which describes the scale, timing and location lived through one of the worst bushfire seasons in of all major engineering projects being considered or living memory. While some may question whether the developed in Queensland. bushfires are linked to climate change, the evidence the 2020 Queensland Major that climate change is real cannot be ignored as For 2020 we have moved away from printing the our report cover graphically illustrates. Combined large static report and placed greater emphasis on with accelerated biodiversity loss, increased natural Projects Pipeline Report digital. All your detailed information and in-depth disasters, infectious diseases, the water crisis, analysis can be found at our dedicated website – geopolitical tensions and technological changes, qldmpp.com.au – where, for the first time, you will the long-term global outlook is hard to predict. to you – an initiative of the also be able to search and sort data in the pipeline project listing. For these reasons sustainability and resilience are key themes in the report. As well as our traditional Queensland Major Contractors In another first, we will issue two updates to the focus on the economic sustainability of the industry, report during 2020. In June we will provide an update we also explore issues related to environmental addressing projects advanced in both the State and sustainability such as the need for action to make Association (QMCA) and the Federal budgets and another update addressing the Queensland’s existing infrastructure more resilient to State election in October. natural disasters, what new infrastructure is required to combat the effects of climate change and what we The Queensland Major Projects Pipeline Report can all do to address the causes and impacts of Infrastructure Association of (QMPPR) 2020 presents mixed news for the major climate change. projects industry. At just over $50b, the five-year pipeline is larger than in 2019. However, this is due Sincere thanks go to our partner BIS Oxford Queensland (IAQ). to the addition of $9.4b in unfunded works, mainly Economics for their expert guidance, compilation backed by the private resources sector. The public of the project listings and the detailed independent sector continues to do the heavy lifting. analysis that underpins the report. We also would like to thank our report sponsors whose support enables Globally, the pressure on governments to build more us to provide such in-depth analysis. and more infrastructure and deliver services keeps growing without a sufficient income base. Queensland is one of Australia’s largest states and with its growing and dispersed population, feels this burden acutely. Public spending is under pressure from competing needs with ever increasing community needs for spend on health and education as well connecting infrastructure in transport, water, energy and digital. Queensland needs to secure more financing without placing an unsustainable burden on public borrowing or taxation. Increasing private sector spend on economic enabling public infrastructure is crucial to increase sustainability and maintain liveability. Jon Davies Priscilla Radice Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer The south east Queensland (SEQ) City Deal and a successful bid for the 2032 Olympics would be great catalysts to lift business confidence and attract more private funds. ii | QLDMPP.COM.AU QLDMPP.COM.AU | 1 Queensland Major Projects Pipeline Report 2020 is a joint initiative of QMCA and IAQ. The creation of this report is supported by BIS Oxford Economics and Struber. Visit the website for the WELCOME full report, including an 4 interactive database of the Introduction and projects in the pipeline. overview qldmpp.com.au THE OUTLOOK 6 20 24 Pipeline outlook Regional outlook Construction outlook – risks, challenges and – substantial disparity – productivity, capacity opportunities and mixed fortunes and capability SUSTAINABILITY Online you will find the detailed analysis: 12 18 Executive summary Interactive project list Environmental Financial sustainability State pipeline outlook Regional pipeline outlook sustainability – advocating for a Sustainability insights – a visceral issue for healthy pipeline Economic summary Construction outlook Australians ECONOMY PROJECT LIST Supported by 28 Interactive project list – visit qldmpp.com.au Economy – the risks and opportunities 2 | QLDMPP.COM.AU QLDMPP.COM.AU | 3 This pipeline report gathers data from 15 rces 28 resou her 222 projects, each Ot R o a 72 d l s a o a . n with a value of C d 2 m b m r i o d c g e s e l a s e g T 222 $50m+, organised 14 d n s a e l i projects in n i l O e p into 11 sectors. 2 i the pipeline P E l e c t r ic l i s i t rt a y o R /P RIGHT S Water rs 28 ew bou Distribution of the project pipeline er Har by sector. age ce Defen 17 The long standing Queensland 9 10 Major Projects Pipeline Report 21 6 (QMPPR) is developed by the Queensland Major Contractors Association (QMCA) and the Infrastructure Association of Queensland (IAQ). The list includes all engineering construction projects In June we will provide an update addressing in excess of $50m. It was developed by BIS Oxford projects advanced in both the State and Federal The QMPPR has become the barometer of current Economics with QMCA and IAQ member input budgets and another update addressing the State and future major project activity, and construction throughout November 2019 to January 2020. election in October. industry conditions in Queensland. The online report provides a comprehensive list of major A complete list of major projects has been To see the report in its complete detail and use the infrastructure projects and an analysis on the considered for this analysis (and is available online interactive project list, visit qldmpp.com.au. corresponding level of construction activity based at qldmpp.com.au) including explicit assumptions on both the completion of existing projects and the of work done for each project. likelihood of potential projects proceeding. 4 | QLDMPP.COM.AU QLDMPP.COM.AU | 5 Unfunded Pipeline outlook categories $8b Unlikely – risks, challenges Projects considered not to occur $2b in the next five years, even if SED A ROPO NNOUN announced. There are $4.6b in BLY P CED EDI CR unlikely projects in the pipeline. $ 2 b U . .8 ND 9 13 E 2 E R b and opportunities IV PR $ T 41 O EC CU Prospective SP R O EM R E P 1 N Projects considered likely to occur T 6 $ 7 over the next five years but not 1 8 . yet formally proposed. There are U 9 N D b $7.5b in prospective projects in E R b C O the pipeline. 6 Y L N E S 0 K T . I R L $5.4b $19.8b 3 U N C $ U 4 8 T I O Credibly Proposed Unfunded Funded N Projects that are supported by governments and/or the private V Q e a sector but still in prefeasibility/ u y u l l t u business case mode and therefore i a a t e n do not have funding committed. RIGHT V n t a i There are $11b in credibly Public and private pipelines distributed t by stage in funding lifecycle. u y proposed projects in the pipeline. PUBLICQ Q y u t i a There is $50.6b in total major t Funded n V n t e a a i l u project work in the pipeline t u u l y categories a e Q between 2019/20 and 2023/24 V Announced inclusive. This is comprised N Projects which have funding O I 1 of $27.4b in funded work and T U 9 C support but have not yet entered N U L 9 R IK $17.8b $7.6b T the procurement stage (as at $23.2b in unfunded work. $ E 2 S L N Y O 4 C January 2020). There are $9.5b Unfunded Funded R b . E 1 D in announced projects in the Maintaining a growing pipeline of major project 8 b N . U 5 pipeline. work requires shifting currently unfunded projects PRI VATE $ into the funded category, as well as growing the 1 T 8 N P E value of the pipeline overall. While the most likely R M O E SP R Under Procurement E 3 U scenario for major project work excludes “unlikely” C OC TI R Projects in a procurement VE P b ER projects, these are included to show their potential D 3 UN stage but have not yet started $ 0 18 . impact on major project work, particularly later in 4 C $ construction (as at January 2020). .7 RED 6 the forecast. IBLY CED b PROP OUN OSED ANN There are $3.2b in projects under procurement in the pipeline. The analysis is based on a considered view of both $1.5b funded and unfunded projects. The funded forecast view is similar to a “worst case scenario” outlook, Under Construction should international developments or public sector $9b Projects under construction or finances deteriorate significantly, or the combination completed in 2019/20. There are of threats to the Queensland construction industry $14.7b in projects currently under remain unaddressed.