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General Assessment of Global Conflicts in 2018 and Its Implication on the Security of the Korean Peninsula

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General Assessment of Global Conflicts in 2018 and Its Implication on the Security of the Korean Peninsula NO. 2019-1 KIDA Brief provides publicly available summaries of research projects and analysis conducted at KIDA. General Assessment of Global Conflicts in 2018 and its Implication on the Security of the Korean Peninsula Lee, Su-Jin, Associate Fellow Center for Security and Strategy Key findings and policy recommendations □ General Assessment of Global Conflicts in 2018 ○ Global Conflict Trends - Instability caused by changes in distribution of power between major powers spreads throughout the world. - Although there is an ever-present danger of "another war," multiple deterrence factors are assessed to work effectively. ○ Features of Global Conflicts - As tension is rising between the U.S. and China, there are increasing gray-zone challenges in the East China Sea as well as in the South China Sea, raising possibility of leading into 'maritime hybrid warfare.' - It is no other than a dominant player on the ground battlefields that leads Peaces Talks. - An ever-increasing drone attacks present an offense advantage in the battlefield, while incompleteness of a missile defense system is exposed. □ Implication on Korea's Security ○ Middle East - As the pro-Iranian and anti-American "Shi'ite Crescent" consolidates throughout the region, formulating policies to protect and promote national interests has become imperative. - It is necessary to prepare for sending troops both at the request of regional partners and for protecting Korean citizens overseas. ○ Africa - Cooperation with the African Union (AU) is expected to strengthen the government's response capability with regard to kidnapping situation - A new way forward for the Cheonghae Unit may need to be explored in light of changing security environments around the Gulf of Aden. KIDA Brief 1 Today, the scope of Korea's national interests is not limited by national boundaries in an era of global interdependence, in which the concept and principal agent of security are expanding. Having entered into one of the world's major economies, South Korea has sought to improve its soft power contributing to the global security and the world peace, diversifying its military exchange and cooperation throughout the world. Accordingly, we need to grasp actual situations, development, and effects of global conflicts. In other words, it has become progressively important to comprehend changing aspects of conflicts and warfare based on a close observation of global security environments and to draw policy implications to prepare against possible spillover effects. In this sense, this research attempted to set criteria to select 'noteworthy' conflicts regarding security of the Korean Peninsula and analyzed dynamics of the 14 selected conflicts, i.e. South China Sea, East China Sea, Cross-Strait relations, Kuril Islands/Northern Territory dispute, Sino-Indian border dispute, civil wars in Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Somalia. Having analyzed these 14 conflicts, this research identified six features of the global conflict trends in 2018. First, with changes in distribution of power between major powers, competitions for a regional hegemony has intensified. Confrontations between major powers have become evident, the Sino-U.S. conflicts in Asia and the Iran-Saudi conflicts in Middle East. Second, the balance of power between the liberal powers and the illiberal powers has begun to materialize strikingly. On the globe, confrontations between the liberal camp (U.S. and India) supporting the 'status-quo' and the 'rule-based order' and the illiberal camp (China and Russia) demanding a revise of the existing system and a re-establishment have become conspicious. Third, prolonged wars with considerable uncertainty over termination have been prevalent around the world. This can be attributed to the nexus of internationalized civil wars, terrorism, and resistance of non-state actors negating interim governments. 2 KIDA Brief Fourth, although there is an ever-present danger of "another war," multiple deterrence factors work effectively. While the U.S.' superiority of power remains unrivaled, other factors, such as complex interdependence between relevant countries, war fatigue by the concerned parties, difficulty of fighting on multiple fronts, and existence of the common enemy such as the ISIS, all contribute to preventing war outbreak. Fifth, the international community's intervention in conflicts remains to be "limited and selective." Although there is a common understanding to fight the four intolerable crimes, i.e. genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, the principle of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has yet to be effectively practiced. Sixth, as anti-globalisation sentiments spread around the globe, the spirit of the times to respect ethnic and racial diversity and to tolerate differences is declining. The rise of far-right political party and the "strongman" leadership have become widespread globally, inciting inter-regional and intra-regional conflicts. It seems that such characteristics of the global security environments proceed from mid to longer term phenomenon involving changes of power distribution at the international system level, discrepancy in national competency to deal with nontraditional threats, and spread of anti-globalisation sentiments. Hence, this trend is likely to continue for the forseeable future. Under such global security environments, global conflicts took on following aspects. First, in Asia, as tension is rising between the U.S. and China, there are increasing gray-zone challenges in the East China Sea as well as in the South China Sea. If the Sino-U.S. relations deteriorate, the gray zone conflict may develop into a level of 'maritime hybrid war.' KIDA Brief 3 Second, China, Japan and Russia are adjusting direction of their conflict management policies to "engagement" which can be regarded as risk-averse actions against the Trump administration's America First policy. Throughout the year, these countries have shown mutually accommodative gestures in an attempt to manage their conflicts below certain levels. Third, the formidable presence of the ISIS has become diminished, but it still remains at large acting in collusion with local malcontents in Iraq and Syria. Since deprived of their operational bases in Middle East, the extremist armed groups are probing to widen their fields of operations to Eastern and Western Africa. Fourth, although post-conflict state-building efforts including holding elections have continued in Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq terrorist groups are attempting to paralyze the governments' governing functions. As infiltration from external forces continue to target security vacuum in these countries, post-conflict state-building projects faces difficulties. Fifth, while the presence of the United Nation as a conflict mediator remains weak, it is no other than a dominant player on the ground battlefields that leads Peace Talks. In fact, the U.S.-led international coalition tends to depend on air strikes. In contrast, illiberal forces are taking superiority in ground operations, launching guerilla and urban warfare. For example, the Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey in Syria, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen are taking advantage of the terrains strategically. In the boarder dispute with India, China has constructed military installations in the disputed area, or Doklam and undertaken large-scale resource development along with a construction of transportation infrastructures. In this way of 'gradual erosion', China is creating favorable condition to improve its negotiating position against India. 4 KIDA Brief Sixth, an ever-increasing drone attacks show an offense advantage in the battlefield, while incompleteness of a missile defense system is exposed. In particular, drone attacks by non-state actors in the Middle East are fierce, posing considerable threats even against the government forces equipped with the state-of-the-art weapon system. Vulnerability of major powers' missile defense systems were exposed ― during the Syrian Civil War, Russia's Pantsir and S-400 and during the Yemeni Civil War, Saudi Arabia's PAC and THAAD. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the drone battlefield has expanded from air to sea and underwater for the last two years. As seen in the case of the Yemeni Civil War, the Houthi rebels used a drone boat mounted with an improvised explosive device (IED), aggravating difficulty in dealing with asymmetric hybrid warfare. In the last analysis, this research reached a conclusion that the continuos study on the 'noteworthy' conflicts regarding security of the Korean Peninsula is needed. As seen in the Yemeni asylum seekers landing on the Jeju Island and instable economic security caused by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, we cannot be free of effects of global conflicts. This research looked into relevance between global conflicts and the security of the Korean Peninsula in terms of implications and lessons for North Korea, effects on Korea's security, and possibility of similar operations on the Peninsula. As for the relevance of conflicts in the Middle East, we need to pay attention to possible negative effects of North Korea's engagement in Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) proliferation on the international community's policy for North Korean denuclearization. North Korea's illicit activities to engage in the proliferation as a means to obtain hard currency raises doubt from the international community
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