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Swing State Wisconsin Stays in Play Through ‘08

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Swing State Wisconsin Stays in Play Through ‘08 SWING STATE WISCONSIN STAYS IN PLAY THROUGH ‘08 JEFF MAYERS isconsin economic impact of voters went campaign advertis- W to the polls ing, direct mailing, on November 2 to nar- and polling that rowly favor Democrat totaled tens of mil- John Kerry; over- lions of hard-to-track whelmingly elect a dollars. Democrat with a mav- And there’s no erick reputation, Russ reason to believe Feingold, to another that things will be term in the U.S. Senate any different four in what was seen as a years from now. national Republican Wisconsin, which year; send an evenly elected a Democratic partisan split congres- presidential candi- sional delegation back date at the top of the to the U.S. House; and ticket by the narrow- boost GOP majorities est of margins for the in the state Senate and second straight elec- Assembly by one each to 19-14 and 60-39, tion, will likely be on the battleground map of respectively. any D.C. strategist. Wisconsin voters are—take your pick— In the meantime, statewide races will inter- either incredibly independent, schizophrenic, vene between now and the presidential contest or deviously wedded to the system of political of ’08—races that could determine whether checks and balances. the state goes blue or red in ’08. It’s that kind of unpredictability that made The final election ’04 presidential turnout Wisconsin the top-flight national swing state it was nearly 73%, as people decided their vote was in ’04—a place where the presidential counted. But in the spring of ’05, a fraction of candidates spent oodles of time, where cam- the 2.9 million voters who cast ballots in paigns—candidate, 527 and other groups— November will elect a state schools superinten- spent oodles of cash, and where political dent, a state Supreme Court justice, county junkies got to feast on oodles of goodies that executives in Dane and other counties, and their counterparts in the Californias and the numerous local judges, school board members, New Yorks of the world were denied. and municipal officials. Wisconsin has the Electoral College to thank for its time in the limelight and the positive Jeff Mayers is president of WisPolitics.com and WisBusiness.com, Madison-based online news services. Wisconsin Interest 1 And then in ’06 come the much-anticipat- to the Republican-run Legislature early in ’05. ed races for governor, attorney general, U.S. But Doyle’s bureaucracy-cutting plans wors- Senate, and the Legislature. ened relationships with state employee unions, usually a key Democratic constituency. Race Snapshots Doyle also was under attack for rising — The governor’s race, as of the late ’04 writ- school property taxes (up more than 7%) and ing of this analysis, was already budding: for giving away exclusive casino rights to the Democratic Governor Jim Doyle was furiously state tribes, which Republicans claim will short fundraising to build a war chest that could state taxpayers by millions, despite a ruling scare off involvement by Republican support from the state Supreme Court against Doyle- groups, and the major GOP challengers and forged gambling pacts. To the disappointment their operatives were girding for a primary of some Democrats, his property tax-relief contest. Politicos were betting that Green Bay- strategy was too much anti-freeze and anti- area Congressman Mark Green would meet constitutional amendment. Having something Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker in positive to talk about in that department the primary contest, with Assembly Speaker would be seen as a boost to Doyle and other John Gard staying where he is for now—atop Democrats running for office in ’06. “Doyle the biggest GOP Assembly majority in needs a progressive tax reform plan in order to decades. have a forward [-looking] change agenda that But those close to Gard say the often-con- will make voters want him to stay,” says one troversial, straight-talking speaker could defi- Democratic strategist not in the Doyle camp. nitely get in the race. His advantage, especially Walker, who has emphasized property tax in a primary, would be that on a daily basis he relief, made the point emphatically in a IS the Republican alternative to Doyle in the December 2, 2004, press release viewed as the Statehouse. “John Gard is the wild card in the opening shot of the governor’s race. “Governor race,” said one Gard insider, noting that Doyle cut the state commitment to schools and Gard’s involvement, from his district north of he blocked the freeze on property taxes,” said Green Bay in Peshtigo, would hurt Green. Walker. “He alone is responsible for the sharp “Even if he does not get in, he will probably rise in school tax levies and upset property tax- determine the (primary) winner.” The logic payers should let him now about it.” The gov- here is that if Gard stays out, that will help ernor’s people responded that Walker voted Green dominate the Republican vote-rich Fox for tax increases as a Republican legislator. Valley and overcome Walker’s position in the state’s biggest media market and the A Republican strategist, with no ties to Republican vote-rich suburban ring around Walker or Green, lays out Doyle’s property tax Milwaukee. Said one Republican: problem, which began when he vetoed a three- year property tax freeze that resulted in an ini- If John gets in and doesn't win it, he and Green split the valley base and Walker gets tial $165 million boost in property taxes. the nomination. If John stays out Walker With the historic school property tax hikes can't overcome Green's money and Fox coming this year, that number is going to Valley base and Green gets the nomination. be even bigger in December [2005]. By the Doyle, meanwhile, is setting a centrist time the year three impact totals come in December 2005, he could be on the hook course as a pro-business Democrat who can theoretically for a half to 3/4 billion dollar manage the state’s economy and its finances. property tax hike going into the election. His two major ’02 election promises—no state That's real money. tax increases and cutting state government employee ranks by 10,000 over eight years— Meanwhile, the cautious Doyle appeared remained intact going into the fight over the to be taking few risks going into the election governor’s 2005-07 re-election budget plan due cycle, instead relying on a strategy of camping 2 Winter 2005 in the middle—the old basketball player tak- who has been in the U.S. Senate since 1989. But ing away the easy lay up and forcing oppo- Republican strategists acknowledged that nents to take shots from the perimeter. He either race would be tough for Thompson, casts Republicans as extremists and hopes lib- who last ran statewide in 1998. Thompson’s eral Democrats will have nowhere else to go in future was uncertain in late ’04, but Democrats November ’06. Green and Walker were both were going on the assumption that Doyle seen as threats, but neither has been elected wouldn’t have to face perhaps his toughest statewide like Doyle, who will be running for opponent in a grudge match. his sixth straight and perhaps final statewide Doyle, in a December fundraising letter, victory. But there is a rub, according to one laid out the rhetoric and the reasoning for his Democratic strategist not in the Doyle camp: ’06 re-election bid: He is running a no-turnovers offense that We've put the state's fiscal house back in will force him to take the status quo to vot- order without making devastating cuts to ers, but gives his opponents the opportuni- our education systems. We have led the ty of being the candidate of change. Midwest in job growth despite neglect from Charlie Cook, the Washington. We have Washington, D.C. handi- helped thousands of capper, recently rated seniors get cheaper pre- Doyle as a favorite for re- scription drugs from Canada. And, we have election; and Doyle’s job protected thousands of performance ratings were acres of unspoiled, said to have been consis- Doyle’s job performance beautiful Wisconsin tently around the 60% land. mark in ’04—a big ratings were . I have been able to improvement over the consistently around the accomplish these goals 45% of the vote he gar- through fiscal discipline, nered in the three-way 60 percent mark in ’04. commitment to race against Republican Wisconsin values, and Governor Scott McCallum your strong support. and Libertarian Ed However, the Republican Thompson, brother of the legislature has fought me longtime Republican gov- every step of the way by ernor, Tommy Thompson. advocating divisive legis- lation that pits the citizens of Wisconsin Tommy announced in late ’04 that he was against each other. leaving the Bush cabinet to mull private sector In this coming session, I will fight against options. But Tommy Thompson’s star still Republican efforts to kill four year old shines, and his loyal subjects in the Badger kindergarten and SAGE. I will fight against State dreamed of an improbable comeback to a so-called property tax "freeze" that would the East Wing of the Capitol. Despite gut Wisconsin's public schools and cities. I Thompson’s typical never-say-never approach, will stand firm against the efforts to legal- another run for governor was seen as unlikely ize concealed weapons and efforts to roll in late ‘04. He’s done the job before, he has the back a woman's right to choose.
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