SWING STATE STAYS IN PLAY THROUGH ‘08

JEFF MAYERS

isconsin economic impact of voters went campaign advertis- W to the polls ing, direct mailing, on November 2 to nar- and polling that rowly favor Democrat totaled tens of mil- John Kerry; over- lions of hard-to-track whelmingly elect a dollars. Democrat with a mav- And there’s no erick reputation, Russ reason to believe Feingold, to another that things will be term in the U.S. Senate any different four in what was seen as a years from now. national Republican Wisconsin, which year; send an evenly elected a Democratic partisan split congres- presidential candi- sional delegation back date at the top of the to the U.S. House; and ticket by the narrow- boost GOP majorities est of margins for the in the state Senate and second straight elec- Assembly by one each to 19-14 and 60-39, tion, will likely be on the battleground map of respectively. any D.C. strategist. Wisconsin voters are—take your pick— In the meantime, statewide races will inter- either incredibly independent, schizophrenic, vene between now and the presidential contest or deviously wedded to the system of political of ’08—races that could determine whether checks and balances. the state goes blue or red in ’08. It’s that kind of unpredictability that made The final election ’04 presidential turnout Wisconsin the top-flight national swing state it was nearly 73%, as people decided their vote was in ’04—a place where the presidential counted. But in the spring of ’05, a fraction of candidates spent oodles of time, where cam- the 2.9 million voters who cast ballots in paigns—candidate, 527 and other groups— November will elect a state schools superinten- spent oodles of cash, and where political dent, a state Supreme Court justice, county junkies got to feast on oodles of goodies that executives in Dane and other counties, and their counterparts in the Californias and the numerous local judges, school board members, New Yorks of the world were denied. and municipal officials. Wisconsin has the Electoral College to thank for its time in the limelight and the positive Jeff Mayers is president of WisPolitics.com and WisBusiness.com, Madison-based online news services.

Wisconsin Interest 1 And then in ’06 come the much-anticipat- to the Republican-run Legislature early in ’05. ed races for governor, attorney general, U.S. But Doyle’s bureaucracy-cutting plans wors- Senate, and the Legislature. ened relationships with state employee unions, usually a key Democratic constituency. Race Snapshots Doyle also was under attack for rising — The governor’s race, as of the late ’04 writ- school property taxes (up more than 7%) and ing of this analysis, was already budding: for giving away exclusive casino rights to the Democratic Governor Jim Doyle was furiously state tribes, which Republicans claim will short fundraising to build a war chest that could state taxpayers by millions, despite a ruling scare off involvement by Republican support from the state Supreme Court against Doyle- groups, and the major GOP challengers and forged gambling pacts. To the disappointment their operatives were girding for a primary of some Democrats, his property tax-relief contest. Politicos were betting that Green Bay- strategy was too much anti-freeze and anti- area Congressman Mark Green would meet constitutional amendment. Having something County Executive Scott Walker in positive to talk about in that department the primary contest, with Assembly Speaker would be seen as a boost to Doyle and other John Gard staying where he is for now—atop Democrats running for office in ’06. “Doyle the biggest GOP Assembly majority in needs a progressive tax reform plan in order to decades. have a forward [-looking] change agenda that But those close to Gard say the often-con- will make voters want him to stay,” says one troversial, straight-talking speaker could defi- Democratic strategist not in the Doyle camp. nitely get in the race. His advantage, especially Walker, who has emphasized property tax in a primary, would be that on a daily basis he relief, made the point emphatically in a IS the Republican alternative to Doyle in the December 2, 2004, press release viewed as the Statehouse. “John Gard is the wild card in the opening shot of the governor’s race. “Governor race,” said one Gard insider, noting that Doyle cut the state commitment to schools and Gard’s involvement, from his district north of he blocked the freeze on property taxes,” said Green Bay in Peshtigo, would hurt Green. Walker. “He alone is responsible for the sharp “Even if he does not get in, he will probably rise in school tax levies and upset property tax- determine the (primary) winner.” The logic payers should let him now about it.” The gov- here is that if Gard stays out, that will help ernor’s people responded that Walker voted Green dominate the Republican vote-rich Fox for tax increases as a Republican legislator. Valley and overcome Walker’s position in the state’s biggest media market and the A Republican strategist, with no ties to Republican vote-rich suburban ring around Walker or Green, lays out Doyle’s property tax Milwaukee. Said one Republican: problem, which began when he vetoed a three- year property tax freeze that resulted in an ini- If John gets in and doesn't win it, he and Green split the valley base and Walker gets tial $165 million boost in property taxes. the nomination. If John stays out Walker With the historic school property tax hikes can't overcome Green's money and Fox coming this year, that number is going to Valley base and Green gets the nomination. be even bigger in December [2005]. By the Doyle, meanwhile, is setting a centrist time the year three impact totals come in December 2005, he could be on the hook course as a pro-business Democrat who can theoretically for a half to 3/4 billion dollar manage the state’s economy and its finances. property tax hike going into the election. His two major ’02 election promises—no state That's real money. tax increases and cutting state government employee ranks by 10,000 over eight years— Meanwhile, the cautious Doyle appeared remained intact going into the fight over the to be taking few risks going into the election governor’s 2005-07 re-election budget plan due cycle, instead relying on a strategy of camping

2 Winter 2005 in the middle—the old basketball player tak- who has been in the U.S. Senate since 1989. But ing away the easy lay up and forcing oppo- Republican strategists acknowledged that nents to take shots from the perimeter. He either race would be tough for Thompson, casts Republicans as extremists and hopes lib- who last ran statewide in 1998. Thompson’s eral Democrats will have nowhere else to go in future was uncertain in late ’04, but Democrats November ’06. Green and Walker were both were going on the assumption that Doyle seen as threats, but neither has been elected wouldn’t have to face perhaps his toughest statewide like Doyle, who will be running for opponent in a grudge match. his sixth straight and perhaps final statewide Doyle, in a December fundraising letter, victory. But there is a rub, according to one laid out the rhetoric and the reasoning for his Democratic strategist not in the Doyle camp: ’06 re-election bid: He is running a no-turnovers offense that We've put the state's fiscal house back in will force him to take the status quo to vot- order without making devastating cuts to ers, but gives his opponents the opportuni- our education systems. We have led the ty of being the candidate of change. Midwest in job growth despite neglect from Charlie Cook, the Washington. We have Washington, D.C. handi- helped thousands of capper, recently rated seniors get cheaper pre- Doyle as a favorite for re- scription drugs from Canada. And, we have election; and Doyle’s job protected thousands of performance ratings were acres of unspoiled, said to have been consis- Doyle’s job performance beautiful Wisconsin tently around the 60% land. mark in ’04—a big ratings were . . . I have been able to improvement over the consistently around the accomplish these goals 45% of the vote he gar- through fiscal discipline, nered in the three-way 60 percent mark in ’04. commitment to race against Republican Wisconsin values, and Governor Scott McCallum your strong support. and Libertarian Ed However, the Republican Thompson, brother of the legislature has fought me longtime Republican gov- every step of the way by ernor, . advocating divisive legis- lation that pits the citizens of Wisconsin Tommy announced in late ’04 that he was against each other. leaving the Bush cabinet to mull private sector In this coming session, I will fight against options. But Tommy Thompson’s star still Republican efforts to kill four year old shines, and his loyal subjects in the Badger kindergarten and SAGE. I will fight against State dreamed of an improbable comeback to a so-called property tax "freeze" that would the East Wing of the Capitol. Despite gut Wisconsin's public schools and cities. I Thompson’s typical never-say-never approach, will stand firm against the efforts to legal- another run for governor was seen as unlikely ize concealed weapons and efforts to roll in late ‘04. He’s done the job before, he has the back a woman's right to choose. I will fight Republican extremists to make sure record of 14 years served, and it’s time to move Wisconsin leads the way on stem cell on, say friends and associates who were more research and help cure diseases and create intrigued about a possible run against another jobs. And I will continue my drive to raise of Wisconsin’s most enduring popular politi- the minimum wage for the first time in cians, Herb Kohl, the unassuming millionaire- seven years. Democratic owner of the Milwaukee Bucks

Wisconsin Interest 3 I'll continue to speak out and fight for the in ’06. Republicans complain he has been a do- issues we care about and the values we nothing senator, but Kohl’s quiet accomplish- stand for, but I will need your help. ments and a non-threatening persona have led It's been less than two years since my inau- to statewide popularity. He also has many mil- guration, but the 2006 race for Governor lions of his own money to spend on a has already begun. Potential opponents are campaign—making this a daunting challenge already attacking me in the press and have for Thompson, rising national and state GOP started to take questionable steps to side- star U.S. Representative , or any- step Wisconsin campaign finance law in body else. Neither Thompson nor Ryan order to pour millions of dollars into their seemed likely to run unless Kohl for some rea- campaigns. son backed out of an expected re-election run, The last paragraph was a reference to probably leaving Republicans in the uphill sit- questions over Green’s efforts to exploit his uation they faced in their unsuccessful effort $1.3 million congressional campaign war chest against Feingold. and Walker’s effort to pump up his county campaign fund. Feingold, attracting double-digit support from Bush supporters, handily beat first-time- “Both are just skirting Wisconsin cam- statewide candidate Tim Michels, a business- paign finance laws so they can double up on man who won the GOP nomination by beating donors and PAC money,” a Doyle loyalist Russ Darrow and Bob Welch in a September complained. primary. — The attorney general’s race as of late ’04 — The state’s House delegation has added a also was attracting interest because of the soap new member—former Milwaukee state opera surrounding the current AG, Peg Senator Gwen Moore, replacing the retiring Lautenschlager. The Fond du Lac attorney, a Democratic U.S. Representative Jerry Kleczka. former lawmaker and U.S. attorney in While conventional wisdom says the delega- Madison who has set a political course much tion is destined to remain at four Republicans to the left of Doyle in her first term, got the and four Democrats, Democrats aren’t count- kind of statewide attention that would normal- ing out a strong Democratic challenge for ly bury future political aspirations when she Green’s Green Bay-area congressional seat if was caught driving drunk in a state car. But Mark Green indeed runs for governor. And an amidst a battle against breast cancer, she in unexpected open seat could change the arith- late ’04 appeared headed for a re-election metic. run—still very vulnerable but gaining political viability among insiders. Republicans — Republicans, in a way, have nowhere to go remained confident, however, of a takeaway but down in the legislative elections of ’06, unless a strong Democrat like Dane County given how they have maximized the current Executive Kathleen Falk, a former environ- district map. But conventional wisdom has mental attorney and Lautenschlager supporter, been wrong before when it comes to would somehow replace the AG on the ticket. Republican gains in the Assembly. Gard sur- State Representative Mark Gundrum (R-New prised even Republicans by gaining a seat in Berlin) was positioning himself for a possible ’04 and won’t be counted out so easily. run, but other candidates—such as Waukesha But conservative Republicans didn’t have County District Attorney Paul E. Bucher— such a good feeling for the fortunes of state could emerge. Republicans haven’t held the Senate Repubicans in part because of a moder- seat since Don Hanaway, a Green Bay pol, ate uprising that supplanted the interim major- held the seat for one four-year term until a guy ity leader, Scott Fitzgerald, who had forged a named Jim Doyle beat him in 1990. cooperative relationship with Gard. GOP — U.S. Senator Kohl was seen as the major Senators, perhaps looking to show their inde- favorite for re-election to another six-year term pendence from the Assembly (which senators 4 Winter 2005 regard as the “lower house” even though Republican-base turnout as it did in other many of them served there), surprisingly elect- states in November. But it could also be a rally- ed state Senator Dale Schultz (R-Richland ing point for Democrats who may not have Center) as leader after he came off a losing allegiance to Doyle, even though he’s the first congressional bid against U.S. Representative Democratic governor since 1986. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse). — The Panzer and Lazich episodes point to a But the election of Schultz gave rise to con- strong conservative movement in favor of troversy, because the swing vote, Senator TABOR, which while it can’t be on the ballot, Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin) lied to district and could be another issue to spike Republican southeastern Wisconsin conservatives in say- turnout. ing she backed Fitzgerald. She ended up — The feeling that Doyle hasn’t and won’t be resigning her assistant majority leader post able to fix the property tax problem sufficient- over the controversy, but kept her post on the ly to curb a so-called taxpayer revolt. budget-making Joint Finance Committee. Leaders of Citizens for Responsible — The expectation that Doyle’s high job per- Government (CRG) declared themselves still formance ratings would ebb quickly once a unhappy with Lazich, campaign began because suggesting a recall could he has yet to connect with be in her future. the electorate. CRG also is a big sup- — Lautenschlager’s trou- porter of the Taxpayers The story of campaign bles could drag down Bill of Rights, or TABOR, a ’06 has yet to be Doyle. proposed constitutional — The expectation that amendment to limit state written, but there could Doyle’s re-election bud- and local spending. get will have to be full of TABOR continued to be reasons for both sides big fee increases and divide the Senate GOP maybe even tax increases caucus in late ’04 despite to be optimistic. to erase a $1.6 billion the defeat of Senator Mary deficit. Panzer, a West Bend Republican who was — The September ’06 majority leader until her Republican gubernatorial primary loss to conservative state primary could attract attention, boost the win- Representative Glenn Grothman—in part a ner when it matters most, and undermine TABOR-related event. The Panzer and Lazich Doyle if the candidates bash the governor episodes point to a tough balancing act for instead of each other. Schultz, who could catch flak from impatient Why Democrats Might Be Optimistic conservatives who ask, “If Gard is for it and can pass it, why can’t you?” — Democratic women running in the ‘05 races appeared to be strong favorites for re-election. Campaign ’04 is over and quickly merging into campaign ’06. The story of campaign ’06 — Democrats continue to dominate statewide has yet to be written, but there could be rea- elections. Republicans haven’t won the presi- sons for both sides to be optimistic. dential contest here since 1984, and they have only one Republican statewide-elected official, Why Republicans Might Be Optimistic state Treasurer Jack Voight. — A proposed constitutional amendment to — Republican officeholders remain split over ban gay marriage could be on the ballot at the TABOR. same time as Doyle, helping to drive

Wisconsin Interest 5 — If Ed Thompson runs for governor again, as — Lautenschlager’s troubles could evoke a lib- many Libertarians hope, he could help Doyle eral movement to save her, turning out liberal by siphoning opposition votes away from the voters for Doyle. Republican candidate. What will happen in ’06? The crystal ball —Republican gubernatorial candidates will be remains cloudy in part because the indepen- distracted by the September ’06 primary, dence of Wisconsin voters makes electoral pre- spending resources and fighting each other dictions high risk. But preserving the state’s when one candidate could have been going swing status has its benefits. Why would we full-time after Doyle. want to pass up the chance to see the ’08 national campaign play out in our own back- —Doyle will be well funded, and Kohl likely yard? will help fund the Democratic election machine if he has a race. But some Democrats fear national Republican money will come into the state to grab back the governor’s seat.

6 Winter 2005