CHANGING THE GUARD IN A REPEAT OF THE PAST OR A NEW BEGINNING?

JEFF MAYERS

hank Tommy paign 2002. Joining Thompson, McCann in making TChuck Chvala pre-election charges and E. Michael was Dane County McCann. If you want- District Attorney ed a clean sweep of Brian Blanchard, who the old leadership in also charged a trio of Madison, you got Assembly Republican your wish. leaders and a top Republican Assembly On January 6, aide. Earlier, he had 2003, a new governor charged state Sen. and a new slate of leg- Brian Burke, D- islative leaders offi- , with a cially took their places host of felonies, forc- at the Capitol — ing Burke to pull out swept up in a wave of of the attorney gener- change swelled by the al's race. And specu- end of the Thompson lation in early 2003 era, the “caucus scan- was that Blanchard's continuing investiga- dal,” and opportunistic electioneering by tion would hit others. Republicans and GOP-leaning interest groups. While there are some holdovers (Assembly It happened because: Majority Leader Steve Foti, R-Oconomowoc, • left the governorship held onto office and leadership despite legal after 14 years on February 1, 2001, to take a problems) and the new slate of leaders are not cabinet post with President Bush, leaving exactly fresh faces to Capitol vets, the ascension longtime lieutenant governor Scott of the new political order represents one of the McCallum to cope with a falling budget biggest changes to hit Madison in two decades. and economic trends; Twenty years ago, there was a new governor (Democrat Tony Earl), a new Assembly speaker • Former Senate Majority Leader Chuck (Democrat Tom Loftus), a new Assembly Chvala became enough of a political villain minority leader (Republican Tommy to pull down Democratic incumbents in Thompson), a new Senate majority leader the Senate; (Democratic Tim Cullen), and a new Senate • and, Milwaukee County District Attorney E. minority leader (Republican Jim Harsdorf). Michael McCann's office charged Chvala They faced a mounting fiscal crisis, and one of with 20 felonies in the home stretch of cam- Jeff Mayers is the editor and president of WisPolitics.com, an online news service in Madison.

Wisconsin Interest 3 them — Thompson (“Dr. No” at the time) — budget-writing Joint Finance Committee to ended up as a long-term impact player. win unanimous election to the speaker's post after Scott Jensen was forced from it This time there's a different political mix (a because of felony charges in the caucus Democratic governor and Republican scandal. (Like Chvala and Foti, Jensen is Legislature) but the same big problems — a fighting the charges; Jensen also is flexing red-stained budget and a cloudy economic his muscles as a chair of two important future in the state and in the state's largest city. committees — Education Reform and In Milwaukee, 2002 also brought a wave of Energy & Utilities.) Gard, married to for- change from the courthouse (a new county mer state Treasurer and U.S. Senate candi- executive replacing longtime Executive Tom date Cate Zeuske, hails from Peshtigo and Ament, after a pension scandal) to city hall (a gets good reviews for his straight-shooting lame-duck mayor, John Norquist, getting style. He's mentioned as a possible 2006 ready to leave because of a sex scandal). congressional candidate or maybe even a gubernatorial candidate (along with 8th In 2003, the new statehouse leadership will District Congressman Mark Green of be forced to find a solution to the $2.6 billion- Green Bay and new Milwaukee County to-$4.3 billion, two-year budget deficit. From Executive Scott Walker — if he wins a full this group, could a star emerge — one able to term in 2004). It might be the majority that shape Wisconsin politics for another two Jensen built, but the 58-41 GOP margin decades? Here are the possibilities. will help Gard. • Democratic Governor , the 12- • Republican Senate Majority Leader Mary year attorney general, beat McCallum in a Panzer, a legislative veteran, whose politi- negative governor's race while pledging to cal team surprised many by sweeping four not raise taxes. Doyle started off looking key races, including a recount in the more like a Pat Lucey Democrat than a Sheboygan area. Panzer had been the Tony Earl Democrat. His father, a federal minority leader in a divided caucus frus- judge, was close to Lucey. His mother, a trated by the inability to knock Chvala off former state lawmaker from Madison, his pedestal. Then McCann brought the helped his father build the modern charges, and Panzer's team was ready to Democratic Party in Wisconsin. The new pounce. Panzer and her allies took full governor comes into office without a advantage of the situation and a name- majority of votes and with wounds from a filled criminal complaint to tie Democratic nasty election fight. But if Doyle can Senators Rod Moen in western Wisconsin rebuild his party after 16 years in the and Kim Plache in Racine to Chvala. Wins gubernatorial wilderness, keep his moder- over Moen, Plache, and Jim Baumgart plus ate Democratic promises, and win re-elec- a victory in the open Republican seat once tion in 2006, he could have his own lofty held by Peggy Rosenzweig, R-Wauwatosa, spot in Wisconsin political history. gave Republicans a most improbable 18-15 • Democratic Attorney General Peg edge in the state Senate and Panzer a Lautenschlager, a former county and fed- firmer hold on her caucus. She knows the eral prosecutor and state lawmaker from budget from her days on the Joint Finance Fond du Lac, who succeeded Doyle. While Committee, and she pledges to reform a she has little to do with solving the budget Senate that was run in dictatorial fashion mess, she likely will be called upon to take by the wily Chvala. Some Republicans a leadership role in improving the ethical think she's too moderate, but she usually climate. scores points for a thoughtful, consensus- building style. • Republican Assembly Speaker John Gard, who rose from the co-chairmanship of the

4 Winter 2003 • Democratic Assembly Minority Leader Jim as usual” attitude was evident in some quar- Kreuser. Kreuser was assistant to ters; they hope that will invite more charges in Democratic Leader Spencer Black, and the caucus scandal, which has been running took over after Democrats lost ground for since mid-2001, and force politicians to deal the sixth election in a row. The Kenosha with ethics and campaign reform issues they politician faces a rebuilding effort akin to otherwise might choose to leave on the shelf. the one his city had to mount after In the meantime, the budget deficit and Chrysler closed most of its operations in what to do with it dominated media coverage the late 1980s. A Democratic majority in and the minds of voters. the Assembly seems a long way off. A late November WisPolitics.com/Wood • Democratic Senate Minority Leader Jon Communications Group poll found the budget Erpenbach. Erpenbach, a Democrat from deficit to be the number one issue on the minds Middleton only in his second four-year of Wisconsin citizens. The other high-ranking term, leads a dispirited caucus that hopes issues named by respondents to an open-ended for influence now that there's a Democrat question include public education, jobs and the in the East Wing. economy, health care, and Erpenbach early on property taxes. Corruption joined with former in public office and ethics Republican leader reform garnered responses and now reformer from only 6 percent of Mike Ellis in pushing In the meantime, the those surveyed, according for campaign finance budget deficit and what to the poll. Campaign reform; that's a good finance reform netted 2 fit, considering he's to do with it dominated percent. (The telephone the brother-in-law of poll, conducted November U.S. Senator Russ media coverage and the 21-25, surveyed 400 Feingold and now Wisconsin residents. The holds his old state minds of voters. margin of error was plus Senate seat. A former or minus 5 percent.) radio personality, Erpenbach will need Eighty-seven percent all his good humor to of respondents said they keep his senior members happy and pro- were “somewhat concerned” or “very con- tect freshmen Mark Meyer of La Crosse cerned” that “the budget deficit is serious and Dave Hansen of Green Bay in 2004, enough to affect” them and their families. The given that their names are prominent in concern appeared to center on taxes and the Chvala criminal complaint. spending, with 83 percent of those responding somewhat opposed or strongly opposed to The leaders all started the year with post- raising taxes while 84 percent were strongly election declarations of bipartisan cooperation supportive or somewhat supportive of cuts in and a similar set of goals: balance the budget state spending. Feelings ran high on the issues, without raising taxes and improve the growth with 66 percent saying they strongly opposed potential of the state's economy. raising taxes and 54 percent saying they were But few observers expect the cooperative strongly supportive of cuts in state spending. mood to last for long. They see differences in But those polled were skeptical about state how the principal players will pursue those politicians, doubting they would deliver. They goals and note that the next election campaign were asked: “When all is said and done, do is just around the corner. Reformers also com- you believe Governor Doyle and the plained that, despite the changes, a “business Legislature can balance the budget without

Wisconsin Interest 5 raising taxes?” The answers were: 51 percent pledge of his campaign. After the poll was out, no, 37 percent yes, and 12 percent not sure. a top Doyle official ruled out expanding the sales tax base even though the poll suggested Citizens also said they would probably not citizens were open to that option. And Doyle re-elect officials who raised taxes even if they frequently repeated his opposition to tax “had to raise taxes because of a worsening eco- increases and started to lay the ground work nomic situation.” Forty-four percent of those for reduced services. surveyed said they would not vote to re-elect such officials, 34 percent said they would, 16 Doyle, it was clear, didn't go through the percent said it “depends,” and 7 percent said election as a moderate Democrat so that he they were not sure. could commit a special kind of political suicide in his first budget plan. He obviously thought The poll showed that citizens were not in there was a way out of the fiscal box, and his the mood for permanent or temporary sales appointment of Marc Marotta as administra- tax boosts, increased state income tax rates, tion secretary and David Riemer as budget increased user fees, higher gas taxes, new local director showed he was looking for fresh eyes tax levies, or higher tuition. The only taxes to find better ways to manage state finances. they were really open to raising, according to the late November poll, were those on tobacco. So if Doyle and the Legislature don't raise They slightly supported the idea of broadening taxes or many fees, they must cut big pro- the sales tax base and slightly opposed the idea grams such as the UW System, shared rev- of higher business taxes. But higher rates on enue, and/or school aid. Doyle hinted at a major taxes or dramatically higher auto user hybrid foundation plan (where a set amount of fees seemed to be a political no-no. money would follow students, no matter where they lived) using the amount of money On spending cuts, citizens appeared to now appropriated for K-12 education pro- favor cutting state employees (they were less grams. But redistributing the money between in favor of cutting state employee benefits), rich and poor districts would be very contro- and state agency budgets. They were split on versial — especially in the suburban, cutting aid to local government, money for Republican ring around Milwaukee. prisons and health care for non-state employ- ees. And they were against cutting aid to pub- Despite the budget battle ahead, strategists lic schools, tech colleges and universities. In in both parties said that Doyle might not be the addition, the poll indicated citizen support for one-term sitting duck that some had predicted. economic development. Eighty (80) percent of Having a Republican Legislature could be ben- those surveyed said the role of economic eficial. He can blame Republicans for killing development is “very important” in “improv- his ideas or force Republicans to come up with ing Wisconsin's economic situation.” Another equally difficult proposals. 17 percent said it's “somewhat important.” In Republicans, in a way, have to help Doyle addition 71 percent of those surveyed said succeed if they are to succeed. “I don't antici- they would support “investing state tax dollars pate letting people down,” said Speaker John for economic development programs.” In the Gard at a WisPolitics.com forum in December question, economic development was defined also attended by Panzer and Marotta. “All as “increasing the number of companies doing three of us here say we're not doing it with business in Wisconsin to increase the number taxes. . . . The last five years, we've had a grow- of jobs available in the state.” ing budget problem, and it's been hard to get The poll was taken before Doyle's the public focused that there actually was a December budget listening sessions and before problem. So when they're there, I think that the new Doyle administration was in place. makes it easier to start dealing with some of But Doyle had already shown that he was not the necessary medicine.” Added Panzer: “If we about to beat a retreat on the no-new-taxes are able to paint a vision of a better day, peo-

6 Winter 2003 ple will be willing to make the sacrifices to get taxes, giving rise to the tax-and-spend liberal us in balance. . . . There's only one way to do label that dogged Democrats throughout the that — it's through less government, not doing Thompson years. When Earl entered office, the business as usual.” deficit for the upcoming two-year budget (much smaller in those days) was pegged at Marotta, who often represented business $1.5 billion, and Earl's aides were talking open- interests at the establishment Foley & Lardner ly of sluggish revenue returns and of “perma- law firm, spoke the language of business. nent tax increases.” “Government has to respond more quickly, more efficiently, and unfortunately has to do Not only did Earl sign legislation to make with less,” he said. “There's no way we can permanent the 5 percent state sales tax (which make this a worse climate to do business, or had been increased a year earlier under worse climate to attract people from all around Republican Governor Lee Dreyfus to cover to be in.” And at the core, that means no new another emergency), he had to put a 10 percent taxes. “We've pledged to rule out any new surtax on the state income tax to make ends taxes. That means any type of taxes. Whether it meet. And the state resorted to issuing operat- is imposing more mandates on local govern- ing notes to borrow for state operations. ment to cause local taxes to increase. Whether “Everything was broke,” Earl told it means exposing more people to taxes. Taxes WisPolitics.com correspondent Neil Shively in are taxes,” he said. late 2002. Earl was pleased during that inter- view that someone remembered that he ended None of the three promised the state's the surtax and actually reduced the personal expensive commitment to fund two-thirds of income tax to about 7 percent at the top rate by the costs of public schools was safe. Gard said the time he relinquished the office to Tommy school spending has to be looked at because Thompson in 1987. The state sales tax has it's such a big part of the budget. Panzer said remained at 5 percent. the QEO (qualified economic offer, or teacher pay cap), revenue caps and the two-thirds state But it was too late for Earl; he had been commitment all have to be on the table. And labeled “Tony the Taxer” by Republicans. Marotta said, “To the extent that we can Doyle, a Madison Democrat, has a chance to stretch the education dollar, we will.” turn the tables. If with the help of a Republican Legislature he can get through the next two Panzer put the budget hole, including years without getting tagged as a tax-raiser, growth, at no more than $2.8 billion over two and if he can catch a sustained economic years. Marotta pegged it at about $3.4 billion. recovery, he could be well on his way to re- Twenty years ago, during the state's most election. In the process, he might explode the recent fiscal crisis, Tony Earl and the tax-and-spend rap that has worked so well for Democratic Legislature got blamed for raising Republicans.

Wisconsin Interest 7