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Motherson Sumi Systems Initiatingcompany Coverage Update

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Motherson Sumi Systems Initiatingcompany Coverage Update TM Angel Broking Jain Irrigation Service Truly Personalized Motherson Sumi Systems InitiatingCompany Coverage Update BUY Harnessed to drive ahead Motherson Sumi System’s (MSSL) prospects are derived largely from demand arising in the Price Rs82 Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment, which is currently under pressure due to sluggish demand. Target Price Rs111 This is reflected in MSSL's valuation too. However, newer growth opportunities are emerging Investment Period 12 Months for MSSL owing to increasing customer base and market reach along with investments in new technologies and products. The MSSL stock has always traded at premium valuations Stock Info on account of its consistent track record and strong relationship with partner - Sumitomo. At the CMP, the stock is quoting at 12.3x FY2010E EPS, which is lower than its historical Sector Auto Ancillary five-year average P/E of more than 20x. MSSL also scores well over its peers. We maintain Market Cap (Rs cr) 2,935 a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs111. Beta 0.4 Wiring harness to ramp up on capacity addition in PV segment: Global Auto giants are investing aggressively in India and are set to enhance the domestic Auto 52 Week High / Low 124/67 capacity (excluding two wheelers) from 2.2mn units per annum to 4.4mn units by FY2010 Avg Daily Volume 22629 where PV capacity is expected to cross the 3.5mn mark. MSSL meets over 65% of the wiring harness demand of the domestic PV segment and derives 50% of its Revenue from Face Value (Rs) 1 the segment. On a higher base of installed capacity, we estimate MSSL's Wiring Harness segment to post a CAGR of 28% in Sales over the next two years. BSE Sensex 14,482 Portfolio, Customer, Market Diversification to drive Sales: MSSL is increasing Nifty 4,338 content per car to diversify its product portfolio. It is focusing on its Global Product Plan (GPP) and setting up joint ventures (JVs) with Tier-I suppliers to upgrade its technology and add clients. Going ahead, MSSL targets to achieve 60% of consolidated turnover from the BSE Code 517334 overseas markets. We expect the new ventures to increase contribution by FY2010. NSE Code MOTHERSUMI Strong Partnership, focus on Integrated Module to improve Margins: Partner, Sumitomo Reuters Code MOSS.BO is the third largest player world-wide with a market-share of around 20% in wire harnesses. To streamline operations and prune costs, Sumitomo has been shifting its Bloomberg Code MSS IN manufacturing base to low-cost countries like India and targets to have 85% of its wire harness production offshore. MSSL would be a major beneficiary of Sumitomos’ cost Shareholding Pattern (%) reduction and offshoring efforts. Promoters 71.0 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E MF / Banks / Indian FIs 4.6 Net Sales 1,527.6 2,028.1 2,542.5 3,237.6 FII / NRIs / OCBs 6.4 % chg 50.4 32.8 25.4 27.3 Adj Net Profit 129.2 158.8 198.5 255.3 Indian Public / Others 18.0 % chg 20.1 22.9 25.0 28.6 OPM (%) 14.4 13.5 13.5 13.9 Abs. 3 m 1yr 3yr EPS (Rs) 3.7 5.0 5.2 6.7 Sensex (%) (11.4) 0.4 88.6 P/E (x) 14.9 16.4 15.8 12.3 MSSL (%) (6.2) (3.0) 55.7 P/BV (x) 5.1 5.5 3.6 3.0 Note: Bonus Issue in FY2008 at 2:1 RoE (%) 34.1 32.8 22.3 24.4 RoCE (%) 18.2 18.0 18.9 22.4 Vaishali Jajoo EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 344 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.3 11.6 9.2 7.0 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: FY2007 EPS adjusted for Bonus Issue. FY2009E and FY2010E E-mail: [email protected] earrings on fully diluted equity. JanuaryAugust 26,30, 2008 For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration NoNo :: INB 010996539 1 Angel BrokingTM Motherson Sumi Systems Service Truly Personalized Auto Ancillary Company Background Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) is the flagship company of the Sumi Motherson Group. MSSL is a joint venture (JV) between Sumitomo Wiring Systems (SWS), Japan (27.3% stake), Sojitz Corporation, Japan (9.6% stake) and the Motherson Group (34.2% stake). MSSL is one of the largest manufacturers of automotive wiring harnesses in the world spread across twelve countries. MSSL, an integrated auto ancillary manufacturer, has moved up the value chain graduating from a supplier of components and assemblies to a full system solutions provider. The company provides customised solutions from segments like electrical distribution systems (EDS), polymer processing, tooling, metal machining and integrated modules to a cross-section of the automotive and non-automotive industry. It serves more than 500 customers, covering 20 countries across Asia, Europe, North and South America and Australia. MSSL has been following the inorganic growth model, which entails entering into joint venture (JVs) to foray into new markets and product categories. Currently, MSSL has seven JVs and 20 subsidiaries. Product Mix MSSL has a diversified product range with expertise in various technologies. The company has three main business units viz., Wiring Harness Group, Polymer Group and Rubber, Metals and Other parts. Exhibit 1: Business Portfolio - FY2008 % contribution to Sales Division Products Range Standalone Consolidated Wiring Harness Group Wiring Harness, connectors, terminals, Fuses and 65.83 73.04 Fuse Boxes, Clamps and Binders, Grommets and Seals, Caps and Sleeves Polymer Group Injection-molded and Blow-molded plastic parts 21.55 23.94 Injection-molded rubber and liquid silicon rubber parts Compression-molded components Complete modules Rubber, Metals and Rubber Parts 12.62 3.02 Other parts Automotive mirrors Machined metal components and assemblies Source: Company, Angel Research Wiring Harnesses: MSSL is a leading supplier of wiring harnesses to most of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in India with consistent market-share of around 65% in the domestic PV market and accounts for nearly two-third of the company's revenues. The company has 20 plants engaged in the manufacture of wiring harnesses spread across India, Sharjah, Ireland and the UK. This division has recorded a robust CAGR of 33% in the last three years. In addition to growth in passenger vehicles (PVs) market, the growth in wiring harness business was also contributed by customers in the non-automotive categories, including earthmoving, material-handling equipment and commercial vehicles. AugustJanuary 26, 30, 20082008For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration No No :: INBINB 010996539 2 Angel BrokingTM Motherson Sumi Systems Service Truly Personalized Auto Ancillary Polymer: The Division has grown to 14 manufacturing units across India, Sharjah, Germany and Czech Republic, supported by various JVs and subsidiaries. It is among the largest plastic component suppliers to the Automotive and Consumer Electronic industries in India. The Division contributed around 21.55% to the company's consolidated revenues in FY2008. It possesses capacities ranging from 20-3,200 tonne, with over 300 hi-end moulding machines. MSSL through its Polymer Division, Motherson Automotive Technologies & Engineering (MATE) has developed an integrated model that allows it to provide high-end assemblies and modules. On account of this, the company has established itself as a 'Full System Solution Supplier'. As a part of strategy, MATE has reduced business in the Electronics and White Goods industry. Polymer Division has posted strong CAGR of around 59% in the last three years. Rubber, Metals and other parts: Other products of the company including mirror, fuse and fuse-related components have done well clocking a CAGR of 34% in Sales on consolidated basis in last three years. Volumes of this segment was be driven by increasing content per car and addition of new components. MSSL is the largest OE manufacturer of rear-view mirrors for PVs in India with market-share of around 45%. Exhibit 2: Revenue break-up and performance (Consolidated, Rs cr) 2,500 2,000 CAGR - 37.4% 1,500 1,000 500 0 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 Wiring Harness Group Polymer Group Rubber, Metals and other parts Source: Company, Angel Research Customer Concentration MSSL's customer base spans the entire cross-section of the Automotive industry including PVs and medium utility vehicles (MUVs), two wheelers and commercial vehicles. MSSL also has a well spread customer base in the non-Automotive segments including tractors, material-handling and earth-moving equipment, electrical, electronics and medical systems. JanuaryAugust 26,30, 2008 For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration NoNo :: INB 010996539 3 Angel BrokingTM Motherson Sumi Systems Service Truly Personalized Auto Ancillary Exhibit 3: Revenue break-up -Customer-wise, FY2008 Consolidated Standalone JCB, 2.9% Piaggio, 2.6% Hero Honda, 2.5% Tata , 4.0% Continental, 2.7% Piaggio, 4.2% Maruti, 18.6% Maruti, 29.4% Hyundai, 9.8% Others, 30.0% Others, 44.3% Ford, 3.9% Hyundai, 3.4% SEWS, 4.6% NACCO, 2.2% Ford, 6.3% Honda Siel, 4.2% M&M, 5.1% Tata Motors, 6.4% M&M, 3.1% SWS, 3.1% Honda Siel, 6.7% Source: Company, Angel Research The company has a well-diversified customer portfolio where the top-five customers contribute around 41% to total consolidated Revenues as against around 49% two years back. Maruti Suzuki is the company’s largest OEM customer and accounted for 18.6% and 29.4% of consolidated and standalone sales in FY2008, respectively. Going ahead, MSSL proposes to achieve a customer profile where contribution from any individual customer is not be more than 20% of the total turnover on a standalone basis, which it has achieved on a consolidated basis in FY2007.
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