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Arming the Heavens: A Preliminary Assessment of the Potential Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Space-Based Weapons Steven M. Kosiak Thinking Center for Strategic Smarter and Budgetary Assessments About Defense CSBA CSBAonline.org Arming the Heavens: A Preliminary Assessment of the Potential Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Space-Based Weapons Steven M. Kosiak 2007 ABOUT The CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY AssessMENTS The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, non-partisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions in matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. CSBA provides timely, impartial and insightful analyses to senior decision makers in the executive and legislative branches, as well as to the media and the broader national security establishment. CSBA encourages thoughtful participation in the development of national security strategy and policy, and in the allocation of scarce human and capital resources. CSBA’s analysis and outreach focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to US national security. Meeting these challenges will require transforming the national security establishment, and we are devoted to helping achieve this end. CSBA is directed by Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich and funded by foundation, corporate and individual grants and contributions, and government contracts. The analysis and findings presented here are solely the re-sponsibility of the Center for Strategic and the Budgetary Assessments and the authors. 1667 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington, DC 20006 Tel. 202-331-7990 Fax 202-331-8019 http://www.CSBAonline.org Contents Executive Summary ........................................................ i Space-Based Ballistic Missile Defense Systems .................... iv Space-Based Systems for Attacking Terrestrial Targets .......... v Space-Based ASAT Systems ............................................ vii Using Space-Based Weapons to Protect US Satellite Capabilities .................................................................... ix Introduction ................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Space-Based Ballistic Missile Defenses ......... 7 Overview of Space-Based Ballistic Missile Defenses .............. 8 Space-Based Kinetic Energy Interceptors ....................... 10 Countermeasures ....................................................... 14 Space-Based Laser Defenses ........................................ 16 Countermeasures ....................................................... 23 Alternative Terrestrial-Based Ballistic Missile Defense Systems ........................................................... 27 Surface-Based Boost-Phase Kinetic-Energy Interceptors .............................................................. 28 Airborne Kinetic-Energy Interceptors ............................. 29 Airborne Lasers .......................................................... 30 Surface-Based Midcourse Kinetic-Energy Interceptors ...... 32 Chapter Summary and Conclusions .................................. 34 Chapter 2: Space-Based Systems for Attacking Terrestrial Targets ....................................................... 37 Mass-to-Earth Weapons .................................................. 38 Space-Based Lasers ....................................................... 41 Alternative Terrestrial-Based Strike Systems ...................... 45 Chapter Summary and Conclusions .................................. 49 Chapter 3: Space-Based Anti-Satellite Weapons ........... 51 Overview ...................................................................... 51 SBI ASATs ................................................................. 54 Space Mines .............................................................. 59 SBL ASAT .................................................................. 62 Dazzling and Blinding .................................................. 66 Jamming and Spoofing ................................................ 68 High-Powered Microwave Weapons ............................... 70 Terrestrial-Based ASAT Alternatives .................................. 73 Surface-Based Kinetic-Energy Interceptors .................... 74 Co-orbital Interceptor ................................................. 78 Airborne Kinetic-Energy Interceptor .............................. 79 Ground-Based Laser ................................................... 80 Airborne Laser ........................................................... 81 Terrestrial-Based Jammers .......................................... 83 Attacking Satellite Ground Stations ............................... 83 Nuclear Weapons ....................................................... 84 Chapter Summary and Conclusions .................................. 87 Chapter 4: Using Space-Based Weapons to Protect US Satellite Capabilities ............................... 91 Organization of Chapter .................................................. 92 Bodyguard Satellites and Emerging ASAT Threats ............... 93 Passive Countermeasures ............................................... 95 Hiding ....................................................................... 96 Deception .................................................................. 97 Maneuver .................................................................. 97 Hardening ................................................................. 98 Electronic and Electro-Optical Countermeasures .............. 98 Proliferation—Replenishment and On-Orbit Spares........... 99 Proliferation—Modularization and Segregation ............... 100 Reducing Dependence on Satellites ............................. 100 Chapter Summary and Conclusions ................................ 101 Report Summary and Conclusions .............................. 105 Executive Summary The United States is the world’s greatest economic and military power. Perhaps nothing demonstrates the extent of that dominance today better than the country’s preeminent role in space. The United States operates by far the most capable and costly network of satellites in the world. Its extensive access to space provides significant economic benefits. It also gives the US military a critical edge over potential adversaries. The combination of US dominance in, and dependence on, space assets has led to both growing concerns about the vulnerability of those assets and calls for the United States to exploit further its existing advantages in space capabilities. While space has been militarized for many years, it has not, at least as far as can be determined from unclassified sources, been weaponized. In other words, satellites have been used to provide intelligence, targeting and other support to terrestrial-based forces and weapons. However, to date, no country appears to have actually stationed weapons in space. Some analysts believe that the weaponization of space is inevitable and that the United States can and should move rapidly to acquire and field a range of space-based weapons. Others argue that the United States has more to lose than any other country if space is weaponized and that taking steps in this direction would lead to the worst of both worlds—yielding little or nothing in terms of military advantage, and sparking or accelerating an arms race in space that the United States should, instead, be seeking to avert or, at least, delay as long as possible. Space-based weapons could, in theory, be used to carry out at least four different missions. Specifically, they could be used to: • defend against ballistic missile strikes; • attack terrestrial-based (i.e., surface-based and airborne) targets; i • destroy or disable enemy satellites; and • protect US satellites, by intercepting enemy anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The wisdom and feasibility of acquiring and deploying one or more of these kinds of space-based weapons can only be determined through an analysis that takes into account a broad range of strategic, operational, technological, political, and financial considerations. Of all of these factors, historically, the area that has received the least attention has been the financial costs—specifically, the funding requirements—that would be associated with the acquisition and support of space-based weapons. This is understandable to some extent. Weapon system cost estimates can only be as accurate as the quality of information available concerning the system’s technical characteristics, overall system architecture and operational concept. In the case of space-based weapons, the quality of such information is typically poor. On the other hand, an analysis of space weapons that does not consider the system’s budgetary requirements is, at best, incomplete and, at worst, provides a misleading picture of the system’s potential cost-effectiveness. In an effort to raise the level of debate concerning the wisdom and value of acquiring and deploying one or more of the four types of space-based weapons noted above, this report provides rough, order- of-magnitude, estimates of the potential cost of acquiring and supporting such systems. Based on the cost estimates identified or derived in this report, and existing unclassified assessments of potential system effectiveness, this report also offers a range of tentative and preliminary conclusions concerning the likely cost-effectiveness