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KAP ONP Independent Total 52 2 54 (Majority 15) 34 3 1 1 39

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MACKERRAS PENDULUM QUEENSLAND 2020 GOVERNMENT SEATS OPPOSITION SEATS Labor Greens Total LNP KAP ONP Independent Total 52 2 54 (Majority 15) 34 3 1 1 39 93 28.2 Inala Traeger (KAP) 24.8 93 91 26.3 Woodridge % % Warrego 23.2 91 89 23.5 Gladstone Hill (KAP) 22.6 89 87 20.7 Bundamba 20 20 85 18.5 South Brisbane (Greens) 83 17.8 Algester Hinchinbrook (KAP) 19.3 87 81 17.3 Sandgate Condamine 19.2 85 79 17.1 Jordan Gregory 17.3 83 77 16.8 Morayfield Broadwater 16.6 81 75 16.6 Ipswich Surfers Paradise 16.3 79 73 16.1 Waterford Callide 15.9 77 71 15.1 Nudgee 15 15 69 14.9 Stretton 67 14.6 Toohey 65 14.4 Ipswich West 63 13.9 Miller 61 13.4 Logan 59 13.4 Lytton Southern Downs 14.1 75 57 13.2 Greenslopes Nanango 12.3 73 55 13.2 Kurwongbah Lockyer 11.6 71 53 12.8 Bancroft PARTY LIBERAL NATIONAL TO SWING LABOR PARTY TO SWING Scenic Rim 11.5 69 51 12.7 Mount Ommaney Burnett 10.8 67 49 12.3 Mulgrave Toowoomba South 10.3 65 47 11.9 Maryborough Mudgeeraba 10.1 63 45 11.9 Stafford Bonney 10.1 61 43 11.4 Bulimba 41 11.4 Murrumba 39 11.1 McConnel 37 11.0 Ferny Grove 35 10.5 Cooper 10 10 33 9.9 Capalaba Kawana 9.4 59 31 9.6 Macalister Maroochydore 9.2 57 9 9 29 8.7 Rockhampton Mirani (ONP) 9.0 55 27 8.3 Springwood Gympie 8.5 53 8 8 Toowoomba North 7.4 51 25 7.8 Gaven Burdekin 7.1 49 7 7 23 6.8 Mansfield 21 6.8 Mackay 19 6.7 Pine Rivers Noosa (Independent) 6.9 47 17 6.4 Maiwar (Greens) 15 6.3 Cook 13 6.2 Redcliffe 6 6 11 5.7 Keppel 9 5.6 Cairns Southport 5.5 45 Buderim 5.3 43 Independent Majority 7 5.3 Pumicestone* 5 5.2 Aspley LNP - KAP - ONP - 5 5 Oodgeroo 4.5 41 Mermaid Beach 4.4 39 4 4 Ninderry 4.2 37 Mundingburra Moggill 4.0 3 3 3 Redlands 2 2 Theodore 3.6 3.9 35 1 1 Whitsunday 1 Thuringowa 3.4 3.3 3 Townsville 33 L 3.2 3.3 a Barron River b 5 Everton o 3.1 31 r - Caloundra* Glass House G 7 r Hervey Bay* e 2.6 2.3 e ChatsworthClayfield n s 2.1 9 M Burleigh Coomera 29 a Currumbin 1.6 jo 11 ri ty 1.6 1.3 27 1.3 Labor - Greens Nicklin* LNP - KAP - ONP Bundaberg* 1.1 25 52.6% 0.6 23 47.4% 0.2 0.1 21 19 17 13 15 KEY 3.4 Swing required to take seat 33 Majority in seats Result of general election, 31 October 2020. On the Labor side an asterisk indicates a seat taken from the LNP. For the LNP - KAP - ONP - Independent side further information is shown over leaf. General Election 31 October 2020 Counts not conventional for two-party preferred vote Seat won by Katter’s Australian Party – Hinchinbrook Seat won by Independent member Ms Sandy Bolton – Noosa Nick Dametto (KAP) 19,064 64.76% Sandy Bolton (Independent) 21,065 65.85% Scott Piper (LNP) 10,374 35.24% James Blevin (LNP) 10,925 34.15% Swing needed by LNP: 14.8% Swing needed by LNP: 15.9% Note: On my November 2017 reverse side of the pendulum the LNP needed a swing of 7.6%. Therefore, the Note: On my November 2017 reverse side of the pendulum the LNP needed a swing of 11.6%. Therefore, the swing to KAP in 2020 was 7.2%. swing to Ms Sandy Bolton in 2020 was 4.3%. Second seat won by The Greens – South Brisbane Amy Macmahon (The Greens) 18,450 55.35% Jackie Trad (Labor) 14,886 44.65% Swing needed by Labor: 5.4% Note: On my November 2017 reverse side of the pendulum Amy Macmahon of The Greens needed a swing of 3.6% to take the seat from Labor’s Jackie Trad. Therefore, the swing to Amy Macmahon of The Greens in 2020 was 8.9%. Two-Party preferred votes for selected electoral districts Labor - Greens LNP - KAP - ONP Swing to Electoral District Swing Needed Winner Votes % Votes % Labor - Greens Aspley (n) (actual) 18,494 55.16 15,036 44.84 4.0 5.2 Bart Mellish (Labor) Barron River (n) (actual) 16,653 53.06 14,730 46.94 1.2 3.1 Craig Crawford (Labor) Bundaberg (n) (actual) 15,141 50.01 15,132 49.99 4.2 0.1 Tom Smith (Labor) Bundamba (a) (actual) 21,507 70.68 8,922 29.32 -0.9 20.7 Lance McCallum (Labor) Burleigh (n) (actual) 14,430 48.79 15,143 51.21 3.6 1.3 Michael Hart (Liberal National) Cairns (n) (actual) 16,006 55.59 12,788 44.41 2.2 5.6 Michael Healy (Labor) Caloundra (n) (actual) 17,040 52.51 15,409 47.49 6.0 2.6 Jason Hunt (Labor) Chatsworth (n) (actual) 15,379 48.71 16,191 51.29 1.6 1.3 Steve Minnikin (Liberal National) Coomera (n) (actual) 17,938 48.92 18,727 51.08 2.4 1.1 Michael Crandon (Liberal National) Currumbin (n) (actual) 14,703 49.48 15,013 50.52 2.8 0.6 Laura Gerber (Liberal National) Hervey Bay (n) (actual) 17,625 52.02 16,253 47.98 11.1 2.1 Adrian Tantari (Labor) Hill (actual) (b) 8,853 27.45 23,398 72.55 -18.5 22.6 Shane Knuth (KAP) Hinchinbrook (b) (estimate) 9,038 30.70 20,400 69.30 -12.6 19.3 Nick Dametto (KAP) Inala (n) (actual) 23,057 78.17 6,440 21.83 2.1 28.2 Annastacia Palaszczuk (Labor) Maiwar (c) (actual) 19,427 56.32 15,066 43.68 4.7 6.4 Michael Berkman (Greens) Mirani (a) (actual) 12,078 41.02 17,363 58.98 -4.1 9.0 Stephen Andrew (One Nation) Mundingburra (n) (actual) 15,295 53.93 13,065 46.07 2.8 4.0 Les Walker (Labor) Nanango (n) (actual) 12,177 37.79 20,049 62.21 9.2 12.3 Deb Frecklington (Liberal National) Nicklin (n) (actual) 14,866 50.14 14,782 49.86 5.4 0.2 Robert Skelton (Labor) Noosa (d) (estimate) 14,148 43.10 18,679 56.90 0.9 6.9 Ms Sandy Bolton (Independent) Pumicestone (n) (actual) 18,480 55.27 14,956 44.73 6.1 5.3 Ali King (Labor) Redlands (n) (actual) 17,606 53.90 15,059 46.10 0.8 3.9 Kim Richards (Labor) South Brisbane (c) (estimate) 22,835 68.50 10,501 31.50 0.8 18.5 Amy Macmahon (Greens) Thuringowa (n) (actual) 15,790 53.25 13,864 46.75 -0.9 3.3 Aaron Harper (Labor) Townsville (n) (actual) 15,099 53.12 13,326 46.88 2.8 3.2 Scott Stewart (Labor) Traeger (b) (actual) 5,174 25.28 15,295 74.72 3.7 24.8 Robbie Katter (KAP) Warrego (n) (actual) 6,764 26.85 18,424 73.15 -8.5 23.2 Ann Leahy (Liberal National) Woodridge (n) (actual) 21,558 76.25 6,716 23.75 -2.6 26.3 Cameron Dick (Labor) GRAND TOTAL (estimate) 1,508,438 52.57 1,360,956 47.43 2.2 Notes: (n) Refers to cases where the two-party preferred count was normal, Labor in the left-hand column, Liberal National in the right-hand column. The 65 electoral districts excluded from the table (for reasons of lack of space) are all of this type of count. (a) Refers to the two cases where the two-party preferred count was between Labor and One Nation. Thus in Bundamba the Labor winner received 21,507 votes where the one Nation loser received 8,922 votes. (b) Refers to the three cases where the two-party preferred count was between Labor and KAP. That was actually the case in Hill and Traeger. In Hinchinbrook, by contrast, the count was between KAP and LNP with KAP getting 19,064 votes and LNP 10,374. So whereas LNP needs a swing of 14.8% my estimate is that Labor needs a swing of 19.3% to take the seat from KAP. (c) Refers to the two cases of seats won by The Greens where the count was between LNP and Greens. That was actually the case in Maiwar. In South Brisbane, by contrast, the count was between Greens and Labor with Macmahon getting 18,450 votes and Trad 14,886. So whereas Labor needs a swing of 5.4% the LNP needs an estimated swing of 18.5% to take the seat from The Greens. (d) Refers to the unique case where the final count included an independent, Ms Sandy Bolton who won the seat. The LNP needs a swing of 15.9% to take it. My two-party preferred count is my estimate between Labor and LNP. Labor, therefore, is shown to need a swing of 6.9% to take the seat from a notional LNP member. For Pendulum see other side.
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