2013 Kentucky Derby Ebook

2013 Kentucky Derby Table of Contents

Introduction

Black Onyx

Charming Kitten

Falling Sky

Frac Daddy

Goldencents

Govenor Charlie

Itsmyluckyday

Java's War

Lines of Battle

Mylute

Normandy Invasion

Orb

Overanalyze

Oxbow

Palace Malice

Revolutionary

Tiz A Minister

Verrazano

Vyjack

Will Take Charge

Analysis (available 5-2-13) Introduction

Since 1962 only four Kentucky Derby winners finished worse than third in their final prep race. (Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Giacomo and Mine That Bird were all fourth). 41 Kentucky Derby winners won or placed in their final race leading up to the Kentucky Derby. This tidbit of knowledge helps narrow the horses with a legitimate chance from those who don’t are hopelessly over their heads.

Pedigree is the next step to figuring out which of these contestants to keep on your Derby list. It is essential to determine between the horses that will love ten furlongs, those who could finish in the money and the ones that couldn’t get the distance with a guided missile strapped around their girth. Just because a horse ekes out a win at nine furlongs doesn’t mean he has enough gas in the tank to keep up a full out run for an additional furlong.

It is generally accepted that a horse’s damsire and female family impart stamina and class. This is the most important aspect in determining if your Derby hopeful can handle the distance. In the last eleven out of twelve years, every Kentucky Derby winner’s sire or damsire’s daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In seven of eleven instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the last twelve years whose damsire hadn't produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles.

Pedigree knowledge also aides in detecting each horse’s optional surface. On a muddy track, anything can happen. Top contenders are downgraded because they don’t like getting their hooves muddy, while other horses improve vastly in the slop. Two such examples are the 2009 and 2010 Kentucky Derby winners Mine That Bird and Super Saver. Both had superior mud pedigrees and splashed their way to the best races in their careers.

At the other end of the spectrum, certain contestants have never competed in a race over the main track. Evaluating these contenders is a little trickier. Last year’s Derby victor Animal Kingdom made his first start over dirt in the Derby. He was an anomaly, a good horse that can run over anything, proving that rules and statistics don’t always apply to flesh and blood.

This year, I've added an additional analysis, which is the large heart or “X-Factor” gene. Researching back to 1970, 21 winners likely carried the large heart gene. Following are the years that, according to their pedigree charts, horses with the X-Factor won the Kentucky Derby:

1973 – 1975 – yes 1992 - no 1976 - no 1993 – 2000 - yes 1977 – 1981 – yes 2003 - no 1982 – 1983 - no 2004 - yes 1984 – yes 2005 – 2007 - no 1985 – 1986 - no 2008 – yes 1987 – yes 2009 - no 1988 – 1989 - no 2010 - yes 1990 – yes 2011 – 2012 - no

Note that there is no more than three years between winners who may carry the X-Factor gene.

With the above patterns in mind, let’s assess this year’s Kentucky Derby buzz horses by pedigree, surface and overall score. 2013 Kentucky Derby Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds

Horse BLACK ONYX

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Rock Hard Ten Kalahari Cat Cape Town 4/15/2010 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 5-3-1-0 $407,810 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Spiral Stakes G-3 9F Poly 3-1-1-0 0-0-0-0 1-1-0-0 1-1-0-0 Dosage DI CD 6-2-11-1-0 (20) 2.08 0.65

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: C Dirt 90 Beyer 2 Sire No B Mud 96 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Black Onyx has a stamina over speed pedigree. His sire, a gorgeous nearly black 17.3 hands high stallion was a late-bloomer. He placed in the Preakness Stakes and at four, won the Santa Anita Handicap (11/4 miles). He hasn't lived up to expectations at stud, getting only 12 stakes winners. His babies are slow to mature and prefer turf and Polytrack to dirt.

Black Onyx's dam was an allowance class mare who won once sprinting over dirt and twice as a turf miler. Besides Black Onyx, Kalahari Cat foaled the stakes placed Quality Council (dirt sprinter) and stakes winner Francois (Polytrack miler). Kalahari Cat is a half sister to the dam of an English Group 1 winner. His second dam Desert Stormette (by Storm Cat) is a full sister to Breeders' Cup Sprint heroine Desert Stormer. Other notable members of this distaff family include the Grade 1 turf mare Better Lucky and the Grade 2 turf horse Casino Host.

Black Onyx's damsire Capetown gets winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however, he did get one winner at 1 ¼ miles. As a broodmare sire, his daughters bear winners up to 1 1/6 miles. Only two runners, Louisiana Derby surprise Pants on Fire and now Black Onyx, represent their damsire Capetown as winners at 1 1/8 miles. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Black Onyx won and placed over the dirt in off the turf contests in New York as a two year old. He was beaten 19 lengths in his first start of the year over the Gulfstream Park dirt. Switched first to turf then Polytrack, Black Onyx reeled off two victories. The colt may be a better horse over these surfaces rather than dirt. Two of his sire's offspring are top level dirt runners, and only 11% of them win in the mud. Damsire Capetown is a superior mud sire. Hard to rate Black Onyx over mud, however turf/Polytrack runners tend to do better over an off track than fast dirt. Surface Score: C

Analysis: More questions than answers surround Black Onyx after his victory in the Spiral Stakes. Black Onyx has a beautiful long stride, but a high knee action like many turf horses. The major question with this guy is how he will handle the dirt. His three performances over the surface were average. He certainly didn't beat anything as a two year old and his one performance at three against moderate competition was the worst of his career. Some horses that prefer turf run well over the mud, so if you like this colt going into the Derby, pray for rain. Overall Score: C

Horse CHARMING KITTEN

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Kitten's Joy Iteration Wild Again 4/20/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-2-2-2 $257,000 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Kitten's Joy Stakes - 8.5F Turf 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 5-2-2-1 2-0-0-1 2 Palm Beach Stakes G-3 9F Turf Dosage DI CD 2 Dania Beach Stakes - 8F Turf 3-6-9-4-0 (22) 1.59 0.36 3 Blue Grass Stakes G-1 9F Poly 3 With Anticipation S. G-2 8.5F Turf Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: C Dirt 88 Beyer 2 Sire No B Mud 95 Bris 7 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Charming Kitten has a turf over dirt pedigree. His sire, a Champion Turf Horse, has sired 30 stakes winners, but only two stakes winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther.

Charming Kitten is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Queen's Platekitten, a winner at 1 1/6 miles over turf. There's no notable blacktype in the first three female generations.

Charming Kitten's damsire Wild Again won the 1984 Breeders' Cup Classic. As a broodmare sire, he gets winners over all surfaces. His daughters have foaled seven winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther and six of them were victorious over dirt. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Charming Kitten is untested over dirt. He's average over the lawn and hasn't performed all that well over Polytrack. He brings to mind another turf horse, Dean's Kitten, who was second in the Palm Beach Stakes, won the Lanes End Stakes (Spiral) and finished 14 in the Kentucky Derby. Like many turf runners, Charming Kitten may run well over a muddy track. Surface Score: C

Analysis: Ever year, turf horses are sent to the Kentucky Derby, Most of the time, these horses just clutter the field and impede horses with a real shot. Charming Kitten hasn't shown any exceptional ability over any surface. He's not fast enough to beat graded stakes horses and his dirt form is suspect. Animal Kingdom he's not. Overall Score: C

Horse FALLING SKY

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Lion Heart Sea Dragoness Sea Hero 4/17/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-3-0-1 $249,800 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Sam F. Davis Stakes G-3 8.5F Dirt 6-3-0-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 3 Tampa Bay Derby G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 2-1-8-1-0 (12) 1.40 0.33

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 92 Beyer 1 Sire No B Mud 91 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Falling Sky is by Kentucky Derby runner-up Lion Heart. As a stallion, Lion Heart's offspring are best as middle distance runners. His sole stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles is Breeder's Cup Turf Champ Dangerous Midge.

Falling Sky is the first stakes winner in his immediate family. His dam is a stakes placed half sister to two stakes winning sprinters. His damsire Sea Hero won the 1993 Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes. Despite having an excellent pedigree, Sea Hero wasn't a success at stud in the US and was shipped off to stand in Turkey. His daughters have produced nine stakes winners, none past 1 1/8 miles. Pedigree: C

Surface: Falling Sky's pedigree is average for off tracks. The closest he's come to a muddy track was a victory over a good Gulfstream surface. He should handle mud without difficulty. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Falling Sky is average. He's beaten average runners in average races. Verrazano trounced him by more than seven lengths in the in the Tampa Bay Derby and after setting the pace in the Arkansas Derby, Falling Sky weakened to fourth, more than four lengths behind Overanalyze. He'll likely be part of the pace in the Kentucky Derby and it is very likely he'll be backing up when the real running begins. Overall Score: C

Horse FRAC DADDY

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Scat Daddy Skipper's Mate Skip Away 3/5/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-1-3-0 $288,116 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 2 Arkansas Derby G-1 9F Dirt 5-1-2-0 1-0-1-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 2 Kentucky Jockey Club G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 5-0-4-1-0 (10) 2.33 0.90

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 91 Beyer 1 Sire Yes A Mud 101 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Frac Daddy's pedigree is borderline for classic distances. His sire's progeny have won stakes races up to 1 1/8 miles over dirt and synthetics and he has one stakes winner, Lady of Shamrock, who won the 1 ¼ miles American Oaks over turf. The majority of Scat Daddy's babies are best over turf.

Frac Daddy's dam never won beyond six furlongs, however his second dam Power Play (by Fast Play) won the 1 ¼ miles Delaware Handicap. Frac Daddy's damsire, three-time Horse of the Year Skip Away is represented by only four stakes winners as a broodmare sire. None of them have been successful past 1 1/8 miles. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Frac Daddy is a winner over the dirt and has placed in the slop. In fact, his best finishes have been over the Belmont slop and Churchill dirt. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Frac Daddy has proven that he likes the Churchill dirt. His best speed figures were earned in his 9+ length maiden win. He followed up with a strong stretch drive battle against the as yet undefeated Uncaptured, and fell a neck short. The son of Scat Daddy dealt with a grabbed quarter and also fought a throat ulcer after the Holy Bull Stakes and missed training time. In the Florida Derby, Frac Daddy was rank in the post parade and did little running. The colt raced fairly well in the Arkansas Derby. He was no match for Overanalyze but still out finished the rest of the stragglers to finish second, a 1/2 length in front of Carving. The only thing that seems to be in Frac Daddy's favor as he heads into the Derby is his love of Churchill's racing surface. I doubt that he has the speed or pedigree necessary to win the race, but he could be overlooked and with the right trip, round out the exotics at long odds. Overall Score: C

Horse GOLDENCENTS

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Into Mischief Golden Works Banker's Gold 3/7/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-4-1-0 $1,250,000 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Santa Anita Derby G-1 9F Dirt 5-3-1-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1-1-0-0 1 Sham Stakes G-3 8F Dirt Dosage DI CD 1 Jackpot Stakes G-3 8.5F Dirt 1-2-4-1-0 (8) 1.67 0.38 2 Champagne Stakes G-1 8F Dirt

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 105 Beyer 0 Sire Yes A Mud 106 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Goldencents' second-crop sire Into Mischief has two runners on the Derby trail, the other being Wood Memorial third place finisher Vyjack. Into Mischief was a lightly raced, but talented colt who won or placed in all six starts ranging from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. His miler's pedigree kept him off of the Triple Crown trail.

Goldencents hails from a modest, but hardy female family. His dam Golden Works spent her racing career in the claiming ranks at Assiniboia Downs as a sprinter. Despite the lowly class, Golden Works was a decent race mare and compiled a 8-2-3-0 ($14,520) race record. The veteran of 45 races, Goldencents' second dam was in the money a remarkable 35 of 45 starts, mainly in listed stakes races. She was the best runner in three generations of this humble family. Farther back in the line, Goldencents' fifth dam Doiley bore a nondescript mare named Mostly Sunny. That one produced Canadian Champion Juvenile and 1983 Kentucky Derby Hero Sunny's Halo.

Goldencents' damsire Banker's Gold was successful from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, including a victory in the Peter Pan (G-2) when it was held at 1 1/8 miles. As a damsire, he's represented by one other winner at 1 1/8 miles and none past that distance. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Goldencents is a winner over dirt, but untested in mud. Only one of Into Into Mischief's offspring have tried a sloppy track – that was Vyjack who won the Traskwood Stakes over a muddy track. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Goldencents' final time of 1:48.76 for the Santa Anita Derby was a full second slower than last year's winner I'll Have Another. Goldencents' final quarter was run in a pokey :25.25 and he beat a field filled with mostly sprinter/milers. Still, Goldencents is out running his pedigree and supposed distance limitations. He's a tough colt with a high cruising speed. These sorts of anomalies can be dangerous. Overall Score: B

Horse GOVENOR CHARLIE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Midnight Lute Silverbulletway Storm Cat 2/23/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 3-2-1-0 $444,800 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Sunland Derby G-3 9F Dirt 3-2-1-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 Dosage DI CD 1-2-4-0-1 (8) 1.67 0.25

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 95 Beyer 0 Sire Yes A Mud 99 Bris 13 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Govenor Charlie has a classy pedigree and on paper, the stamina to handle 1 ¼ miles. Although his second crop sire Midnight Lute was a two-time Sprint Champ, he had the size (17 hands) and pedigree to be a two-turn runner. A breathing problem kept Midnight Lute from fulfilling this promise. His undeniable talent made him unbeatable in two Breeders' Cup Sprints. Midnight Lute is an aspiring stallion. He is also the sire of Louisiana Derby runner-up Mylute.

Govenor Charlie's dam Silverbulletway is an unraced daughter of the Hall of Fame Champion Silverbulletday. The fabulous mare was the best of her generation, earning Eclipse Awards at ages two and three. Among her accomplishments, Silverbulletday captured the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G-1), Kentucky Oaks (G-1), Ashland and Alabama Stakes, both Grade 1 contests. She won from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 ¼ miles. Pedigree Score: A

Surface: Govenor Charlie is a winner over fast dirt and he has a pretty good pedigree for mud. His second tail sire (Real Quiet, Midnight Lute's sire) is a noted producer of mudders. Midnight Lute won a Breeders' Cup race in the soup at Monmouth Park. His offspring who've tried the mud have handled it. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Govenor Charlie showed a high cruising speed in the Sunland Derby yet set a new track record for 1 1/8 miles while defeating an average group of colts by over five lengths. How much of that was horse and how much track grooming? On the same day, his stable mate set a new record for 1 1/16 miles in the Sunland Oaks, so you be the judge. Govenor Charlie doesn't have much foundation under him. He didn't race at age two and he will enter the Kentucky Derby with only three prep races. Bob Baffert has been successful in the past with this tactic with Indian Charlie and Bodemeister, but both of those colts had four starts under their girths before talking the toughest races of their careers. Note also that Indian Charlie and Bodemeister were injured and retired after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Govenor Charlie is undoubtedly a talented quickly maturing colt and could have a very promising future. I'd keep him on my Derby list for exotics, but he'll have to be extremely special to win the roses with no races at age two and only three lifetime races. Overall Score: B

Horse ITSMYLUCKYDAY

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Lawyer Ron Viva La Slew Doneraile Court 3/18/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 10-5-2-1 $625,600 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Holy Bull Stakes G-2 8.5F Dirt 7-4-2-0 1-1-0-0 2-0-0-1 0-0-0-0 1 Gulfstream Park Derby - 8F Dirt Dosage DI CD 1 Foolish Pleasure S. - 1.70 Dirt 4-3-7-0-0 (14) 3.00 0.79 1 Fasig Tipton Turf Dash - 5F Mud 2 Florida Derby G-1 9F Dirt Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 104 Beyer 0 Sire No A Mud 111 Bris 1 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Lawyer Ron made 26 starts in four years and left the racetrack with a 26-12-4-4 ($2,790,008) record. Lawyer Ron was voted Champion Older Horse of 2007. He was extremely competitive at the highest levels running 1 1/8 miles, but his worst finishes came in the largest events of his life running 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby and two off the board placings in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, Lawyer Ron did finish second by a nose to Curlin in the 1 ¼ mile Jockey Club Gold Cup. Overall, his record at 1 ¼ miles was 4-0-1-0. So far, none of his offspring have won a stakes race past 1 1/8 miles.

Itsmyluckyday's dam Viva La Slew is a veteran of 20 races. She spent her career as an allowance runner at Calder and Gulfstream Park, winning from two furlongs to a mile over the dirt. Viva La Slew is a half sister to the stakes winning mare Ready to Live (by More Than Ready). Descendants of this female family include Florida Derby hero Vicar (by Wild Again) and French Group 1 winner Astronomer Royal (by Danzig).

As a broodmare sire, he’s represented by eight stakes winners, including the Champion Chilean Filly Amani. Bashford Manor Stakes (G-3) hero Circle Unbroken, and listed winner Bernie the Maestro. Doneraile Court’s daughters produce mainly sprinter/milers that are vulnerable past 1 1/6 miles. However, the aforementioned Amani is the only stakes winner at 1 1/8 and 1 ¼ miles. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Itsmyluckyday is a winner over fast dirt and a sloppy track. He's shown the capability to run over anything. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Itsmyluckyday's pedigree is extremely suspect for Classic distances. Neither his sire or damsire were winners beyond 1 1/8 miles and the second damsire Crafty Prospector lends more speed than stamina to his pedigree. The colt set a new track record for 1 1/16 miles in the Holy Bull while defeating Two Year Old Champ Shanghai Bobby. However in the Florida Derby, the colt grabbed the lead in the stretch only to have Orb blow by him as if Itsmyluckyday was tied to the rail. Itsmyluckyday is a talented colt, but 1 1/4 is asking too much although with the right trip he may finish in the money. Overall Score: B

Horse JAVA'S WAR

Sire Dam Damsire DOB War Pass Java Rainbow Quest 5/4/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-3-1-1 $672,091 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Blue Grass Stakes G-1 9F Poly 2-0-1-0 0-0-0-0 3-2-0-0 2-1-0-1 1 Sunday Silence Stakes - 8F Turf Dosage DI CD 2 Tampa Bay Derby G-2 8.5F Dirt 8-1-10-5-0 (24) 1.40 0.50 3 Dixiana Breeders' Fut. G-1 8.5F Poly

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: B Dirt 96 Beyer 0 Sire No B Mud 96 Bris 60 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Java's War is a son of the Champion Two Year Old of 2007. War Pass has a sprinter/miler pedigree and we don't know how far his babies will want to run. His sire Cherokee Run was the Champion Sprinter of 1994. Cherokee Run's offspring won stakes races up to 1 1/8 miles and two placed at 1 ¼ miles. Sadly, War Pass produced only one crop before his death. War Pass is also the sire of Louisiana Derby hero Revolutionary.

Java's War is a half brother to Coffee Bar (by Mineshaft), who is stakes placed going 1 1/8 miles over Polytrack, a winner over turf and who placed in claiming races over the dirt. Their dam Java was out of the money only twice in her seven start career as an allowance class runner. She won at 1 ¼ miles over the turf. Java is a full sister to the Champion turf mare Fiji.

The Classic/Stout Chef-de-race Rainbow Quest is Java's War's damsire. What War Pass offers his son in speed, Rainbow Quest offers in stamina. As a damsire, Rainbow Quest is represented by over 60 stakes winners internationally at 1 ¼ miles or beyond; however, only one of those is a winner at that distance over dirt. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Java's War is a winner over the lawn and Polytrack. He placed second, beaten by three lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, but the worst finish of his career came in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2) at Churchill last year. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Java's War has a speed over stamina pedigree. He raced very wide in the Blue Grass Stakes, and 1 ¼ miles could well be within his scope, especially with the turn of foot he showed with his last-to-first rush in the race. The colt has a mix of dirt and turf influences in his pedigree. He's shown proficiency over turf and Polytrack. He may be adept over dirt, although to date, he doesn't appear as strong over that surface as the others. He may improve over a muddy track. Overall Score: B

Horse LINES OF BATTLE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB War Front Black Speck Arch 3/20/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-3-1-0 $1,276,204 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 U.A.E. Derby Gr.-1 9.5F Tapeta 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 4-1-1-0 2-2-0-0 Dosage DI CD 4-6-17-0-1 (28) 1.95 0.43

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: B Dirt 74 Beyer 1 Sire No B Mud 91 Bris 2 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Lines of Battle has a speed over stamina pedigree. His sire's offspring perform better over turf/synthetic than they do dirt. His dirt progeny win up to 1 1/16 miles, and have placed going longer. War Front's son Departing placed in this year's Louisiana Derby.

Lines of Battle has an illustrious female family. Besides this colt, his dam has produced two French Stakes winners and a Group 1 placed runner. She's a half sister to the international sire Dynaformer. Black Sock's half sisters have produced Grade 1 winner Offlee Wild and the leading freshman sire U.S. Ranger. Lines of Battle's second dam Andover Way is a Grade 1 winner and his third and fourth dams are blue hens.

Arch is a young and very promising broodmare sire. So far, his daughter’s have produced a Juvenile Champ (Uncle Mo) and Kentucky Derby/Preakness hero (I'll Have Another). He's imparting stamina to his daughter’s offspring. Pedigree Score: A

Surface: Lines of Battle is a winner over turf and Polytrack. However, both his sire and damsire raced/won over dirt. Both are superior mud sires. Lines of Battle is untested over dirt. It may not be the surface that bothers him, rather, the unexpected kickback from other runners could have him backing up to avoid it. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Lines of Battle raced to an authoritative victory in the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles, so we know he'll likely get an extra half-furlong with no problem. So far, those who have hit the board in the UAE Derby have bombed in Kentucky. They needed a search party in Kentucky to find last year's UAE Derby winner. So why are they sending Lines of Battle to almost certain defeat? Trainer Aidan O'Brian may be hopeful after sending out Master of Hounds to a runner-up effort in Dubai and a fifth place finish in Kentucky. Lines of Battle past performances don't show that he'll be anything special and then there's the question of how he'll handle the dirt and kickback. Overall Score: C

Horse MYLUTE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Midnight Lute Stage Stop Valid Expectations 2/26/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 9-2-3-2 $417,695 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 2 Louisiana Derby G-2 9F Dirt 7-1-3-2 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 2-1-0-0 3 Delta Downs Jackpot G-3 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 2 Jean Lafitte Stakes - 8F Dirt 1-1-4-0-0 (6) 2.00 0.50 2 Prairie Gold Juvenile S. - 5.5F Dirt

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 93 Beyer 0 Sire No B Mud 105 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Midnight Lute was a two-time Sprint Champ, yet he had the size (17 hands) and pedigree to be a two- turn runner. A breathing problem kept Midnight Lute from fulfilling this promise. His undeniable talent made him unbeatable in two Breeders' Cup Sprints. Midnight Lute is an aspiring stallion. He is also the sire of Sunland Derby winner Govenor Charlie.

Mylute descends from a precocious female family. His half brother She Digs Me won the Sapling (G-3) and Tyro. Their dam was a stakes winning miler and his second dam won a stakes at 1 1/6 miles. Mylute's damsire was a Grade 3 class sprinter/miler. Mylute's second damsire, Kentucky Derby hero Strike The Gold adds a bit of stamina to the pedigree. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Mylute is a winner over fast dirt. He hasn't tried mud, but his sire loved the mud and his damsire gets 16% winners over an off track. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Mylute's pedigree is very borderline for 1 1/4 miles. The good thing about this colt is that his speed figures have improved in every start since last August. He makes a bold move middle move, yet in four of his last six races, he's failed to sustain that move, and hasn't been able to beat softer company. Mylute was a neck behind Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby, earning his best speed figure to date. He's improving, but the distance appears to be beyond his capabilities. Overall Score: C

Horse NORMANDY INVASION

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Tapit Boston Lady Boston Harbor 5/2/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 5-1-2-0 $300,240 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 2 Wood Memorial Stakes G-1 9F Dirt 5-1-2-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 2 Remsen Stakes G-2 9F Dirt Dosage DI CD 9-6-8-1-0 (24) 3.80 0.96

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 99 Beyer 3 Sire No A Mud 104 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Tapit is a popular sire. He was off to a tremendous start at stud when he sired two champions right off the bat. Stardom Bound, a daughter from Tapit’s first crop, earned Juvenile Filly Championship honors in 2006 after earning wins in five consecutive Grade 1 events, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Tapit’s son As De Trebol earned honors as Spain’s Champion Juvenile in the same year. So far, his offspring are best up to 1 1/8 miles, although he has produced three winners at 1 ¼ miles.

Normandy Invasion's female family is nondescript. There are few stakes-quality runners in the first three generations. His damsire Boston Harbor was a Champion Juvenile of 1996. He raced only once at 3. Boston Harbor passed his brilliance to his offspring and to that of his daughters. Only two of his daughter’s babies have won stakes at 1/18 miles (Concord point and La Rocca), and none at classic distances. Adding more speed to Normandy Invasion's pedigree is his second damsire, the Brilliant Chef-de-race Raise A Native. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Normandy Invasion is a dirt horse but he hasn't raced in the mud. His pedigree is about average for the surface and Tapit's babies win about 18% over off tracks. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Normandy Invasion is one of those colts that makes a big late surge, but doesn't quite get there. Everyone thinks they will do it with more distance, but that's rarely the case. Doe he look so good because he has a speedy turn of foot or is he just passing tired horses? Despite his threatening run in the Wood Memorial, Normandy Invasion's pedigree is very suspect for 1 ¼ miles. Sure, he finished only ¾ length behind Verrazano in the race, but could he sustain that bid for another furlong? Overall Score: C

Horse ORB

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Malibu Moon Lady Liberty Unbridled 2/24/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-4-0-1 $921,050 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Fountain of Youth S. G-2 8.5F Dirt 7-4-0-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1 Florida Derby G-1 9F Dirt Dosage DI CD 11-12-15-0-2 (40) 3.21 0.75

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 97 Beyer 7 Sire Yes A Mud 102 Bris 8 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Orb owns one of the most aristocratic pedigrees in the Kentucky Derby field. His sire Malibu Moon, a son of stamina influence A.P. Indy, retired after only two starts. In his first two crops, the well-bred stallion produced 2004 Champion Two Year Old Declan’s Moon and Grade 1 sprinter Malibu Mint. Seven of his offspring have won at 1 ¼ miles or farther, including CCA Oaks winners Devil May Care and Funny Moon, Personal Ensign Handicap heroine Ask The Moon and Delaware Handicap winner Life At Ten. All but one of Malibu Moon's winners at 1 ¼ miles are fillies.

Orb's damsire Unbridled earned honors as Three Year Old of the Year in 1990 after victories in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic. As a broodmare sire, Unbridled's daughters have produced 57 stakes winners, including Preakness hero Shackleford, the popular sire Tapit, and Grade 1 winners Dream Rush and Lady Joanne. The later is one of eight winners at 1 ¼ miles or farther who claim Unbridled as their damsire.

Orb descends from the Phipps Family bred mare Shenanigans, dam of the legendary Ruffian. Closer up in the pedigree, Orb's dam won her maiden at 1 1/8 miles. She was an allowance class runner victorious at 1 ½ miles over turf. Orb's second dam Mesabi Maiden won the 1 1/8 mile Black Eyed Susan Stakes (G-2) over the good mare Cara Rafaela, who would later foal Preakness winner Bernardini. Pedigree Score: A

Surface: Orb has never raced over a sloppy track. Both his sire and damsire are above average - Malibu Moon has 17% and Unbridled has 19% winners over off tracks. While we won't know if Orb will handle the mud until he encounters it, based upon chances are good that he will. Surface Score: A

Analysis: The Phipps like to keep things all in the family. Orb, his dam and second dam were all conditioned by Claude “Shug” McGaughey. Knowing the quirks of a horse's family can give the trainer insight to current generations. Once he figured out racing, Orb has shown improvement in every race. He prefers to sit near the back of the pack and make one run, yet in the Florida Derby he sat about five lengths off of the lead, circled the field and blew by Itsmyluckyday like he was tied to the rail indicating that he's versatile. Orb has the pedigree, running style and should handle the Churchill dirt or mud. He's a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby. Overall Score: A

Horse OVERANALYZE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Dixie Union Unacloud Unaccounted For 4/30/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-4-0-1 $956,381 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Arkansas Derby G-1 9F Dirt 7-4-0-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1 Remsen Stakes G-2 9F Dirt Dosage DI CD 1 Futurity Stakes G-2 6F Dirt 5-1-6-0-0 (12) 3.00 0.92 3 Iroquois Stakes G-3 8F Dirt

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 99 Beyer 1 Sire No A Mud 104 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Overanalyze's sire Dixie Union is the best son of Dixieland Band to stand at stud. On the track, Dixie Union was victorious from 5 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Overall, he won 7 of 12 starts and placed 3 times. Dixie Union's stakes winning offspring are predominately successful from sprints through middle distances up to 1 1/8 miles. Of course, there are no absolutes in horse racing and Dixie Union's son Belmont Stakes hero Union Rags is his sire's only stakes winner past 1 1/8 miles, mainly due to his stamina oriented female family.

Overanalyze's dam is unraced. The colt is a half brother to Matron (G-1, 7F) heroine Meadow Breeze (by Meadowlake) and Mighty Monsoon (by Forestry), a multiple stakes placed sprinter.

Overanalyze's damsire Unaccounted For is the damsire of 11 stakes winners, including the aforementioned Meadow Breeze and California two year old sensation Executiveprivilege, runner-up in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. None of the offspring of Unaccounted For's daughters have won a stakes race beyond 1 1/8 miles, however two have placed at 1 ¼ miles over dirt. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Overanalyze is a winner over fast dirt. His sire is regarded as a good mud sire with 17% winners over off tracks, although his damsire gets only 11% winners over the surface. Overanalyze's half sister Meadow Breeze was last the only time she encountered an off track. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Overanalyze has a pedigree of a middle distance horse. Neither his sire or damsire were able to win beyond 1 1/8 miles, despite multiple chances. Overanalyze is a dual winner at 1 1/8 miles, but may find 1 ¼ miles a little to far in top company. His class and tractable running style may see him placing in the money at classic distances. He was third last year over the Churchill dirt in the Iroquois, so we know he handles the track. Overall Score: B

Horse OXBOW

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Awesome Again Tizamazing Cee's Tizzy 3/26/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 9-2-1-1 $383,500 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 LeComte Stakes G-3 1.70 Dirt 7-2-1-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 2-0-0-0 2 Rebel Stakes G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 6-0-8-0-0 (14) 2.50 0.86

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 95 Beyer 6 Sire No A Mud 101 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Oxbow's sire Awesome Again was a strong route runner, excelling at 1 1/8 to 1 ¼ miles. As a stallion, Awesome Again produces two turn runners and his best progeny include Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, Champion Older Female Ginger Punch, Breeders’ Cup winners Round Pond and Wilco.

Oxbow's unraced dam Tizamazing is a full sister to two-time Horse of the Year Tiznow. She foaled Oxbow's older brother Awesome Patriot, who was third in the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G-3) at two, and won the Alydar Stakes at 1 1/8 miles at three. Tizamazing's full sister produced Belmont Stakes runner-up Paynter, making him a full brother in blood to Oxbow.

Despite the many stakes winners foaled by the daughters of Cee's Tizzy, none of them have won at 1 1/4 miles or farther. The only one to place at classic distances is the talented Paynter. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Oxbow hasn't raced over an off track, but he has a superior pedigree for mud. His sire and damsire get 18 - 20% winners over the surface. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Oxbow beat a very suspect field in the LeComte and only two LeComte winners in the last 40 years have finished in the money in the Classics. Oxbow had no excuse in the Rebel Stakes, but couldn't hold off the charge of his stable mate Will Take Charge, losing the race by a head. Uncharastically far back in the Arkansas Derby, Oxbow never made it past mid-pack and finished a non-threatening 5 1/4 lengths behind Overanalyze. Oxbow has a decent pedigree, but he's an inconsistent winner and his forward style of running puts him at a disadvantage. Overall Score: C

Horse PALACE MALICE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Curlin Palace Rumor Royal Anthem 5/2/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-1-3-1 $271,135 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 2 Blue Grass Stakes G-1 9F Poly 4-1-1-1 1-0-1-0 0-0-0-0 1-0-1-0 3 Risen Star Stakes G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 4-5-11-0-0 (20) 2.64 0.65

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 93 Beyer 0 Sire No A Mud 102 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Palace Malice is a member of Horse of the Year Curlin's first crop. to date, Curlin is represented by one winner at 1 1/8 miles over turf and none over dirt. The son of Smart Strike had the pedigree and ability to win multiple times at 1 1/4 miles and he was on the losing end of a photo finish in an epic battle against Rags to Riches in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes after he competed in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. His babies should handle classic distances if the have a solid female family.

Palace Malice has middle distance stamina through his female family. His dam won a 1 1/16 mile stakes race over turf and she is a half sister to a stakes winning sprinter. His damsire Royal Anthem was a long-winded turf router whose victories include the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap (1 3/16 miles) and Canadian International (1 ½ miles). As a sire, Royal Anthem has just one stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles, that one is a turf router. He's a young broodmare sire represented by only one stakes winner. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Palace Malice is a winner over fast dirt. Encountering a sloppy track in his first start of the year, he made up some ground in the stretch to finish second, eight lengths in front of the third place finisher. He's also placed over Polytrack. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Palace Malice is a trier. He was third in a blanket photo-finish in the Risen Star in his first two-turn attempt. He had a horrible trip in the Louisiana Derby, but came back a few weeks later to finish second in the Bluegrass Stakes, beaten a neck by Java's War. So what's the negative? He hasn't won a race since his maiden last August. Not counting the Louisiana Derby, Palace Malice has been beaten by less than three lengths, but that's the point, he either doesn't like to win, or just isn't fast enough. Speed figures say he isn't that fast. I think he prefers to run with the group. Overall Score: C

Horse REVOLUTIONARY

Sire Dam Damsire DOB War Pass Runup The Colors A.P. Indy 2/20/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-3-1-2 $788,500 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Louisiana Derby G-2 9F Dirt 6-3-1-2 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1 Withers Stakes G-3 8F Dirt Dosage DI CD 10-8-12-1-1 (32) 3.00 0.78

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 102 Beyer 0 Sire Yes A Mud 105 Bris 8 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Revolutionary joins Java's War in representing their deceased sire in the Kentucky Derby. Like Java's War, Revolutionary has a speed over stamina pedigree.

There's no shortage of stamina in Revolutionary's female family. His dam Runup The Colors beat a small but competitive group in the 1 ¼ mile Alabama Stakes (G-1) by 1 ¼ lengths. Revolutionary's second dam Up The Flagpole won the 1 1/8 mile Delaware Oaks and she's also the grand-dam of Champion and sire Mineshaft. Revolutionary's distaff line traces back to one of the best-producing mares in history, La Troienne. Four Kentucky Derby winners (Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Smarty Jones and Super Saver) have descended from this mare, as did Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer. Pedigree Score: A

Surface: Revolutionary has a strong mud pedigree. He's won over a good track and both sire and damsire have a proclivity for mud. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Revolutionary has a classy pedigree. He may be borderline for 1 ¼ miles as we don't know how far his sire's offspring will want to run, but other factors, such as his three straight wins and ability to overcome trouble and win from anywhere could make him a serious threat. But there's one caveat. Can anybody name the last horse to pull a Louisiana/Kentucky Derby double? Grindstone, 17 years ago. To be fair, Funny Cide finished second in Louisiana and won in Kentucky, plus Peace Rules Nehro and Mucho Macho Man finished in the money in both races. Revolutionary is a better class of horse than recent winners in Louisiana. It's time for another colt to pull off the double. Overall Score: A

Horse TIZ A MINISTER

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Ministers Wild Cat Tiz A Mistress Cee's Tizzy 2/8/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 11-2-4-2 $327,780 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 3 San Felipe Stakes G-2 8.5F Dirt 2-0-0-1 1-1-0-0 2-0-2-0 4-1-1-0 1 California Breeders Champ. - 8F Mud Dosage DI CD 3-0-7-0-0 (10) 1.86 0.60

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: C Dirt 92 Beyer 0 Sire No A Mud 98 Bris 0 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Tiz A Minister has been competing at the state-bred level for most of his life. He benefited from the speed duel between Flashback and Goldencents in the San Felipe Stakes and passed tired horses in the stretch to finish third behind Hear the Ghost and Flashback. He made a late move to finish a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten by over 12 lengths by goldencents.

His sire Ministers Wild Cat has produced 12 stakes winners, none past 1 1/16 miles. Not surprising, since he was a sprinter/miler with moderate ability.

There's very little blacktype in Tiz A Minister's female family. His second dam is a stakes placed sprinter and his third dam bore a few California state-bred stakes winning sprinter- milers.

Damsire Cee's Tizzy gave us two time Champ Tiznow, but none of his daughter's offspring have won a stakes race beyond 1 1/8 miles. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Tiz A Minister appears to do his best running over Cushion, turf and mud. He has a superior mud pedigree, as both his sire and damsire get 18%+ winners over the surface. Surface Score: C

Analysis: At this point, Tiz A Minister lacks the ability and pedigree to handle graded stakes company let alone top level runners. He has a miler's pedigree and it's highly unlikely that he'll do much running in Kentucky, even with a wet track. Overall Score: C

Horse VERRAZANO

Sire Dam Damsire DOB More Than Ready Enchanted Rock Giant's Causeway 1/27/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 4-4-0-0 $861,300 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Wood Memorial Stakes G-1 9F Dirt 4-4-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1 Tampa Bay Derby G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 9-0-17-0-0 (26) 2.06 0.69

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 105 Beyer 12 Sire Yes A Mud 104 Bris 1 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Verrazano has a pedigree borderline for 1 ¼ miles. His sire was a precocious youngster who had sprinter/miler speed. In the 2000 Kentucky Derby, More Than Ready pressed a swift early pace and was the only pace presser to stick around when the real running started. He finished fourth to Fusaichi Pegasus.

More Than Ready has been a useful, but somewhat overlooked sire in the United States but is one of the top sires in Australia. His turf/synthetic track runners don't have distance limitations. However, his dirt offspring, especially in the United States, are best up to 1 1/16 – 1 1/8 miles, although he has sired two dirt stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles.

Verrazano's damsire Giant’s Causeway was leading US sire in 2009, 2010 and 2012. In 2010, he was recognized as a Classic chef-de-race, which indicates that he passes stamina attributes to his offspring.

Verrazano's hails from a star-studded female family. His half-brother El Padrino (by Pulpit) created some buzz of his own on last year's Triple Crown trail, winning the Risen Star and placing fourth in the Florida Derby. Unfortunately, he endured a rough trip in Kentucky and finished 13. Two of Enchanted Rock's half sisters are Grade 2 winners, one of whom won at 1 ½ miles. Pedigree Score: A

Surface: Verrazano hasn't raced in the mud. His pedigree for the off going is average, as both his sire and damsire get 14% winners over the surface. We don't know how he'll react to the surface, but so far, he's handled everything asked of him. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Verrazano is the only undefeated colt entering the Kentucky Derby. The large, muscular colt carries miler speed over classy stamina in his pedigree. His high-cruising tactical speed is reminiscent of Derby winners Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown. The one chink in Verrazano's armor is that he didn't race as a two year old. His trainer Todd Pletcher tried to get a race into the colt last December, but when the race didn't fill, Pletcher sent the colt out to a New Year's Day victory. Up until a few years ago, colts unraced at age two were an automatic toss in the Kentucky Derby. The close runner-up finishes of Nehro and Bodemeister changed popular opinion and many people in the racing industry think it's just a matter of time before a Derby entrant emulates the great Apollo and wears the roses. Verrazano could be the one. Overall Score: A

Horse VYJACK

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Into Mischief Life Happened Stravinsky 2/11/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 5-4-0-1 $542,200 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Jerome Stakes G-2 1.70 Dirt 4-3-0-1 1-1-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1 Gotham Stakes G-3 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 1 Traskwood Stakes - 7F Mud 6-0-6-2-0 (14) 1.80 0.71 3 Wood Memorial Stakes G-1 9F Dirt

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 96 Beyer 0 Sire No A Mud 100 Bris 3 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Vyjack has a pedigree leaning more towards miler speed than classic stamina. His sire Into Mischief was a lightly raced, but talented colt who won or placed in all six starts. He was victorious from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. His miler's pedigree kept him off of the Triple Crown trail. Into Mischief is also the sire of Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents.

There is stakes quality in Vyjack's female family and his recent ancestors are well known on the Mid-Atlantic race circuit. His half brother Prime Cut (by Bernstein) is Grade 2 placed at 1 1/16 miles. Their dam Life Happened is a half sister to 2001 Maryland Champion Sprinter Disco Rico (by Citidancer). Vyjack's second dam was a sprinter and his third dam was noted for winning the Maryland Million's Distaff. Other notable stakes winners descended from this female family include Champion sprinter Smoke Glacken and Grade 2 winners Smokey Glacken and Crown of Thorns. Pedigree Score: C

Surface: Vyjack is a winner over dirt and mud. Surface Score: A

Analysis: Vyjack spent his career beating up on lesser horses at shorter distances this year at Aqueduct. He made a nice run in the Wood Memorial, finishing a length behind the unbeaten Verrazano. The excuse for his defeat was that Vyjack exited the race with a slight lung infection. That, and his very suspect pedigree to get 1 1/8 miles, let alone 1 1/4 miles make him suspect to win the Kentucky Derby. He's a hard trying competitor and so far has been out-running his pedigree, so he may finish in the lower exotics. Overall Score: B

Horse WILL TAKE CHARGE

Sire Dam Damsire DOB Unbridled's Song Take Charge Lady Dehere 4/13/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-3-1-0 $545,371 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Rebel Stakes G-2 8.5F Dirt 5-2-1-0 1-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 1-1-0-0 1 Smarty Jones Stakes - 8F Dirt Dosage DI CD 2 Remington Springboard Mile - 8F Dirt 6-10-8-0-2 (26) 3.33 0.69

Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 95 Beyer 9 Sire No B Mud 101 Bris 7 Damsire

Analysis Pedigree: Will Take Charge's sire Unbridled's Song was victorious on the racetrack from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Unbridled's Song was made the favorite for the Kentucky Derby after prevailing in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. He finished fifth in the classic, and didn't return to the winner's circle until his final race, an ungraded contest at Gulfstream Park in which only three competitors started. The now almost-white stallion is popular with breeders. He's sired two Champions and 42 graded stakes winners from 14 crops to race. Nine of his offspring, including Grade 1 winners Octave and Political Force have been successful at 1 ¼ miles.

Will Take Charge is a half-brother to last year's Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy. His half brother finished 19 in the 2012 Derby and while he's been on the board, hasn't visited the winner's circle since.

Will Take Charge's dam Take Charge Lady was one of the top mares of her generation on the race track. The competitive mare faced graded stakes company in 19 of her 22 starts and tangled with the likes of Champions Azeri, Farda Amiga, and the fantastic mares You, Sightseek and Imperial Gesture. Take Charge Lady won three graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles and placed second once at 1 ¼ miles.

Damsire Dehere was a Champion Juvenile colt. As a broodmare sire, he's represented by seven winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther, all over turf and all except one were victorious in Australia. Pedigree Score: B

Surface: Will Take Charge is a winner over dirt, but he didn't handle the mud so well when finishing sixth, beaten 18 lengths in the Southwest Stakes. He may do better next time around, but he'll have to prove it. Surface Score: B

Analysis: Will Take Charge is trained by Wayne Lukas, a guy who is used to having his picture taken in the winner's circle and is enjoying a resurgence on the Derby trail after being out of the spotlight since the 90's. That's the positive. Now for the negative - Will Take Charge will enter the Kentucky Derby without a prep race beyond 1 1/16 miles and a 49 day gap between races. That's asking a lot of any horse, especially one who is an inconstant runner and whose race record is spotty. Lukas recently remarked that the huge, 17 hands high colt was worked lightly after the Rebel to give him time to fill out and will have some serious works leading up to the Derby. I'm still not convinced. Overall Score: C