2013 Kentucky Derby Table of Contents Introduction Black Onyx Charming Kitten Falling Sky Frac Daddy Goldencents Govenor Charlie Itsmyluckyday Java's War Lines of Battle Mylute Normandy Invasion Orb Overanalyze Oxbow Palace Malice Revolutionary Tiz A Minister Verrazano Vyjack Will Take Charge Analysis (available 5-2-13) Introduction Since 1962 only four Kentucky Derby winners finished worse than third in their final prep race. (Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Giacomo and Mine That Bird were all fourth). 41 Kentucky Derby winners won or placed in their final race leading up to the Kentucky Derby. This tidbit of knowledge helps narrow the horses with a legitimate chance from those who don’t are hopelessly over their heads. Pedigree is the next step to figuring out which of these contestants to keep on your Derby list. It is essential to determine between the horses that will love ten furlongs, those who could finish in the money and the ones that couldn’t get the distance with a guided missile strapped around their girth. Just because a horse ekes out a win at nine furlongs doesn’t mean he has enough gas in the tank to keep up a full out run for an additional furlong. It is generally accepted that a horse’s damsire and female family impart stamina and class. This is the most important aspect in determining if your Derby hopeful can handle the distance. In the last eleven out of twelve years, every Kentucky Derby winner’s sire or damsire’s daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In seven of eleven instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the last twelve years whose damsire hadn't produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles. Pedigree knowledge also aides in detecting each horse’s optional surface. On a muddy track, anything can happen. Top contenders are downgraded because they don’t like getting their hooves muddy, while other horses improve vastly in the slop. Two such examples are the 2009 and 2010 Kentucky Derby winners Mine That Bird and Super Saver. Both had superior mud pedigrees and splashed their way to the best races in their careers. At the other end of the spectrum, certain contestants have never competed in a race over the main track. Evaluating these contenders is a little trickier. Last year’s Derby victor Animal Kingdom made his first start over dirt in the Derby. He was an anomaly, a good horse that can run over anything, proving that rules and statistics don’t always apply to flesh and blood. This year, I've added an additional analysis, which is the large heart or “X-Factor” gene. Researching back to 1970, 21 winners likely carried the large heart gene. Following are the years that, according to their pedigree charts, horses with the X-Factor won the Kentucky Derby: 1973 – 1975 – yes 1992 - no 1976 - no 1993 – 2000 - yes 1977 – 1981 – yes 2003 - no 1982 – 1983 - no 2004 - yes 1984 – yes 2005 – 2007 - no 1985 – 1986 - no 2008 – yes 1987 – yes 2009 - no 1988 – 1989 - no 2010 - yes 1990 – yes 2011 – 2012 - no Note that there is no more than three years between winners who may carry the X-Factor gene. With the above patterns in mind, let’s assess this year’s Kentucky Derby buzz horses by pedigree, surface and overall score. 2013 Kentucky Derby Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds Horse BLACK ONYX Sire Dam Damsire DOB Rock Hard Ten Kalahari Cat Cape Town 4/15/2010 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 5-3-1-0 $407,810 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Spiral Stakes G-3 9F Poly 3-1-1-0 0-0-0-0 1-1-0-0 1-1-0-0 Dosage DI CD 6-2-11-1-0 (20) 2.08 0.65 Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: C Dirt 90 Beyer 2 Sire No B Mud 96 Bris 0 Damsire Analysis Pedigree: Black Onyx has a stamina over speed pedigree. His sire, a gorgeous nearly black 17.3 hands high stallion was a late-bloomer. He placed in the Preakness Stakes and at four, won the Santa Anita Handicap (11/4 miles). He hasn't lived up to expectations at stud, getting only 12 stakes winners. His babies are slow to mature and prefer turf and Polytrack to dirt. Black Onyx's dam was an allowance class mare who won once sprinting over dirt and twice as a turf miler. Besides Black Onyx, Kalahari Cat foaled the stakes placed Quality Council (dirt sprinter) and stakes winner Francois (Polytrack miler). Kalahari Cat is a half sister to the dam of an English Group 1 winner. His second dam Desert Stormette (by Storm Cat) is a full sister to Breeders' Cup Sprint heroine Desert Stormer. Other notable members of this distaff family include the Grade 1 turf mare Better Lucky and the Grade 2 turf horse Casino Host. Black Onyx's damsire Capetown gets winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however, he did get one winner at 1 ¼ miles. As a broodmare sire, his daughters bear winners up to 1 1/6 miles. Only two runners, Louisiana Derby surprise Pants on Fire and now Black Onyx, represent their damsire Capetown as winners at 1 1/8 miles. Pedigree Score: C Surface: Black Onyx won and placed over the dirt in off the turf contests in New York as a two year old. He was beaten 19 lengths in his first start of the year over the Gulfstream Park dirt. Switched first to turf then Polytrack, Black Onyx reeled off two victories. The colt may be a better horse over these surfaces rather than dirt. Two of his sire's offspring are top level dirt runners, and only 11% of them win in the mud. Damsire Capetown is a superior mud sire. Hard to rate Black Onyx over mud, however turf/Polytrack runners tend to do better over an off track than fast dirt. Surface Score: C Analysis: More questions than answers surround Black Onyx after his victory in the Spiral Stakes. Black Onyx has a beautiful long stride, but a high knee action like many turf horses. The major question with this guy is how he will handle the dirt. His three performances over the surface were average. He certainly didn't beat anything as a two year old and his one performance at three against moderate competition was the worst of his career. Some horses that prefer turf run well over the mud, so if you like this colt going into the Derby, pray for rain. Overall Score: C Copyright 2013 - Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds - All Rights Reserved 2013 Kentucky Derby Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds Horse CHARMING KITTEN Sire Dam Damsire DOB Kitten's Joy Iteration Wild Again 4/20/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 7-2-2-2 $257,000 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Kitten's Joy Stakes - 8.5F Turf 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 5-2-2-1 2-0-0-1 2 Palm Beach Stakes G-3 9F Turf Dosage DI CD 2 Dania Beach Stakes - 8F Turf 3-6-9-4-0 (22) 1.59 0.36 3 Blue Grass Stakes G-1 9F Poly 3 With Anticipation S. G-2 8.5F Turf Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: C Dirt 88 Beyer 2 Sire No B Mud 95 Bris 7 Damsire Analysis Pedigree: Charming Kitten has a turf over dirt pedigree. His sire, a Champion Turf Horse, has sired 30 stakes winners, but only two stakes winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther. Charming Kitten is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Queen's Platekitten, a winner at 1 1/6 miles over turf. There's no notable blacktype in the first three female generations. Charming Kitten's damsire Wild Again won the 1984 Breeders' Cup Classic. As a broodmare sire, he gets winners over all surfaces. His daughters have foaled seven winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther and six of them were victorious over dirt. Pedigree Score: B Surface: Charming Kitten is untested over dirt. He's average over the lawn and hasn't performed all that well over Polytrack. He brings to mind another turf horse, Dean's Kitten, who was second in the Palm Beach Stakes, won the Lanes End Stakes (Spiral) and finished 14 in the Kentucky Derby. Like many turf runners, Charming Kitten may run well over a muddy track. Surface Score: C Analysis: Ever year, turf horses are sent to the Kentucky Derby, Most of the time, these horses just clutter the field and impede horses with a real shot. Charming Kitten hasn't shown any exceptional ability over any surface. He's not fast enough to beat graded stakes horses and his dirt form is suspect. Animal Kingdom he's not. Overall Score: C Copyright 2013 - Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds - All Rights Reserved 2013 Kentucky Derby Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds Horse FALLING SKY Sire Dam Damsire DOB Lion Heart Sea Dragoness Sea Hero 4/17/10 Record Earnings Lifetime Racing Highlights 6-3-0-1 $249,800 Statistics: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface Dirt Mud Turf Syn 1 Sam F. Davis Stakes G-3 8.5F Dirt 6-3-0-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 3 Tampa Bay Derby G-2 8.5F Dirt Dosage DI CD 2-1-8-1-0 (12) 1.40 0.33 Ratings: Surface: Best SF: SW at 10F X-Factor: A Dirt 92 Beyer 1 Sire No B Mud 91 Bris 0 Damsire Analysis Pedigree: Falling Sky is by Kentucky Derby runner-up Lion Heart.