Lng: Canada's Global Market Opportunity
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Canada and the Natural Gas Economy Special Report 1 | August 2019 LNG: CANADA’S GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY Global Market Demand and Canadian Production CONTENTS 03 Introduction 05 The natural gas supply picture 08 Natural gas demand 11 LNG: Canada’s global market opportunity 14 Analysis: Canada entering competitive LNG marketplace 16 Next “wave” essentials Reference Material 17 Key Canadian LNG Projects 19 Glossary & Conversions 19 Web Resources 2 INTRODUCTION Natural gas is enjoying a feet per day (bcf/d) from 18 bcf/d, with the lowest GHG emissions renaissance around the world. with prices collapsing. These in the world, especially in B.C., Consumption and production of shifting supply/demand market where most of the province’s natural gas was up over five per dynamics in North America have power is generated by hydro. But cent in 2018, one of the strongest also sparked interest by Canadian Canada must also address current rates of growth for both demand producers in developing their own disadvantages — in particular, and output for over 30 years.1 LNG exports. regulatory issues and the lack of certainty in the overall investment And the outlook for natural gas Alberta and British Columbia climate for energy projects in uses remains promising. While fields have generations’ worth the country. natural gas demand in the past of abundant natural gas. LNG was driven by power generation — projects are absolutely essential This report examines how displacing more carbon-intensive for Canadian natural gas Canadian gas supplies — delivered energy sources such as coal and producers to reach new markets, to worldwide markets through oil — in the future the demand will diversify the natural gas sector LNG export terminals on the come from industrial applications and create new employment West Coast and the East Coast and petrochemicals. opportunities. — can help meet burgeoning market demand and offer a Canada has a tremendous In October 2018, LNG Canada transformative opportunity for opportunity to supply large announced a positive final struggling producers. populations with cleaner burning investment decision (FID) for natural gas. The country’s its proposed export project operators produce more gas than in Kitimat, B.C. This major is needed for domestic markets. infrastructure project is backed LNG projects are That excess gas production has heavily by Royal Dutch Shell to traditionally been exported by supply LNG to Asian markets. absolutely essential for pipeline to the U.S., but the shale More positive FIDs are expected Canadian natural gas gas revolution south of the border on both coasts. producers to reach new has led to reduced demand as that country moved from needing to Canadian LNG developers have markets, diversify the import gas to exporting it, via a many advantages, including access natural gas sector and handful of LNG export projects. to large and low cost gas supplies, create new employment as well as faster access to Asian As a result, production in Western and other markets than U.S. Gulf opportunities. Canada had declined in the past Coast LNG plants. There is also decade to about 16 billion cubic the potential to produce LNG 1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy – 2019 edition 3 An artist’s rendering of the LNG Canada project at full build out. Image courtesy LNG Canada 4 THE NATURAL GAS SUPPLY PICTURE CANADIAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLY Canada is the world’s fifth largest producer of natural 2040, conventional production is expected to fall to gas, with an estimated 1,225 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of 4% of total output. remaining natural gas resources.2 In the National Energy Board’s most recent energy Over the past decade, technology advances such as market assessment4, the country’s natural gas horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing have production in the Reference Case declines early in unlocked Canada’s shale and tight gas resources. the projection period to a low of 15.9 bcf/d in 2021 In 2007, production from conventional, non-tight before increasing to 20.9 bcf/d in 2040. [Note: the resources made up just over 60% of total Canadian NEB’s Reference Case is based on a current economic natural gas volumes. Production of gas from tight and outlook, a moderate view of energy prices and shale deposits has grown from 30% of total volumes technological improvements, and climate and energy in 2007 to almost two-thirds in recent years.3 By policies announced at the time of analysis.] Natural Gas Production by Type, Reference Case Bcf/d 106m3/d 25 700 600 20 500 15 400 10 300 200 5 100 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 WC Solution Gas WC CBM WC Conventional ROC Conventional AB Montney Tight BC Montney Tight AB Deep Basin Tight Other WC Tight Duvernay Shale Horn River Shale Other WC Shale (Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2018, NEB) 2 National Energy Board (NEB), 2017 3 International Energy Agency (IEA), Gas 2019: Analysis and Forecast to 2024 4 NEB, Canada’s Energy Future 2018: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 5 Production begins to increase after 2021 as development associated with assumed LNG exports gradually higher prices (see below for AB-NIT support increased capital spending. This leads to price assumptions) encourage enough drilling to more natural gas wells and production in offset production declines from older wells, and Western Canada. Henry Hub and AB-NIT (AECO) Price Assumptions, Reference Case 2016 US$/MMBtu 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Henry Hub NIT NIT less Henry Hub Canada’s LNG Landscape (Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2018, NEB) Current State of North America’s Natural Gas Industry Canada’s natural gas resources are abundant. The total remaining natural gas resource size is 30.8 trillion cubic metres (10¹²m³) or 1 087 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), with 72% coming from tight and shale gas formations in Alberta and British Columbia. The Montney formation (Figure 2) accounts for 36% of Canada’s total The majority of production growth over the NEB’s remaining natural gas resources. projection period comes from the Montney formation, FIGURE 2 Western Canada Gas Plays with tight gas output reaching 12.1 bcf/d in 2040, a Canada’s Prolific Shale and Tight Gas Resources 131% increase from 5.3 bcf/d in 2017. Production of YUKON tight gas from the Montney play — a large resource NORTHWEST LIARD TERRITORIES that stretches from northeast B.C. into northwest BASIN HORN CORDOVA RIVER EMBAYMENT Alberta — has grown significantly over the past five Fort Nelson years. In 2017, production of Montney tight gas comprised almost 35% of total natural gas production Fort St. John ALBERTA (5.3 bcf/d), up from zero production prior to 2006. MONTNEY In the Alberta Deep Basin — a tight gas play that Grande Prairie SASKATCHEWAN runs along the Alberta foothills — production grows BRITISH COLUMBIA modestly as natural gas and NGL prices increase, Edmonton DUVERNAY rising to four bcf/d by 2040 from 3.4 bcf/d in the Reference Case. ALBERTA DEEP BASIN Calgary The Duvernay and Horn River shale gas plays Map produced by the NEB, September 2015 currently produce small amounts of natural gas, Source: Geological Atlas of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin and production from both grows modestly over the Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 projection period with combined production from the (Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand two plays increasing to 900 mmcf/d in 2040 from 500 Projections to 2040) mmcf/d in 2017 for the Reference Case. 6 4 Energy Market Assessment – July 2017 THE GLOBAL SUPPLY PICTURE Global natural gas production is forecast to rise from BP’s most recent projection6 says global gas 3.94 trillion cubic metres (tcm) in 2018 to 4.33 tcm development is expected to grow strongly to 2040, by 2024, an average annual increase of 1.6%, the supported by broad-based demand, plentiful low-cost International Energy Agency (IEA) says in a supplies, and the increasing availability of gas globally, recent report.5 aided by the growing supplies of LNG. The U.S. provides the largest individual contribution In its Evolving Transition (ET) scenario, natural to this increase due to its ample shale gas resources. gas grows at an average rate of 1.7% per annum — China and Australia drive production growth in increasing nearly 50% by 2040 — the only source the Asia Pacific region, while production growth in of energy, along with renewables, whose share in other Asian economies remains limited due to the primary energy increases over the outlook period. depletion of historical resources and the lead time of [Note, BP’s Evolving Transition scenario assumes exploration and production investment. that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed Gas production in the Middle East keeps on growing seen over the recent past.] at a stable rate, but is mainly driven by domestic needs in Iran and Saudi Arabia. While prospects for Natural gas output is led by the U.S. and Middle East production development in Qatar remain uncertain, (Qatar and Iran) — who together account for almost especially surrounding the timing of LNG export 50% of the growth in gas production to 2040 — capacity expansion, the IEA forecast assumes a stable supported by strong increases in output in China and level of production to 2024 in the absence of a final Russia, BP says. investment decision (FID) on LNG expansion at the time of writing. Top 10 - Global onstream LNG export capacity by nation as of May 31, 2019 (million tonnes per year) Australia Qatar United States Indonesia Malaysia Russia Algeria Nigeria Trinidad & Tobago Egypt 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Evaluate Energy 5 IEA, Gas 2019: Analysis and Forecast to 2024 6 BP Energy Outlook 2019 7 NATURAL GAS DEMAND Gas Consumption by Sector Global demand for natural gas grew 4.6% 7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2018, its fastest annual pace since 2010.