The Canadian LNG Export Industry Progress and Prospects
The Canadian LNG Export Industry Progress and Prospects ABA Section of International Law 2016 Fall Meeting Tokyo, Japan Al Hudec, Farris LLP, Vancouver Don Bell, Torys LLP, New York John Mackay, Latham & Watkins LLP, Singapore Karen Ogen, First Nations LNG Alliance, Wet’suwet’en First Nation 2 Introduction • Canada began to develop a legal regulatory and fiscal regime for LNG exports in 2012 • This regime is now largely in place and 3 large projects and one smaller project now have full regulatory approval • If built, these proposed Canadian LNG liquefaction facilities will be among the largest and costliest energy projects ever built 3 Driving forces behind the Canadian industry • The ‘shale gas’ revolution has made the U.S. self sufficient in oil and gas and has shut in abundant Canadian supplies • The obvious solution is for Western Canada to replace its U.S. and Eastern Canadian markets with Asian exports • This requires a return to JCC oil index based pricing – B.C. announced an LNG strategy in 2012 when price was U.S.$18.11 – Price now U.S.$6.32 – Break even for the Canadian projects is about U.S.$10.30 The view from Asia • Asia is the principal market for Canadian LNG LNG Importers (2013) OTHER ASIA 15% EUROPE 15% Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Portugal, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Thailand MIDDLE EAST 4% U.K. SOUTH KOREA 14% AMERICAS 9% Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Dominican Rep, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Canada, USA CHINA 8% JAPAN 35% Source: International Group
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