22 November 2019

General election key seat guide The Midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND

his is the second in a series of Headland’s Key Seat 2019 General Election Guides. This election will be a complex race with the two main parties under challenge from T smaller parties and Brexit. Based on an assessment of election history, demographics and an in-depth knowledge of local areas, we will lay out which seats are going to be the most interesting and tightly fought during this election.

Part two of the series moves to the Midlands and East of England – looking at the East Midlands, West Midlands and East of England regions.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • This diverse area stretches from the Welsh border to the North Sea and encompasses some of the most tightly fought seats in the country.

• The Conservatives will be looking to shake up the electoral map by winning in seats Labour have held for over a century in the Black Country and the mining towns of the East Midlands.

• Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats will be wanting to make waves of their own by taking classic commuter belt seats in the home counties off the Conservatives.

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 1 THE WEST MIDLANDS The home of some of the most marginal constituencies in the country and often thought of as where elections are won and lost, the seats in play this time round are a mixture of skilled working class swing seat areas in the Black Country such as Dudley and Telford, Labour heartlands in the pottery towns of Staffordshire and liberal centres like Warwick.

DUDLEY NORTH Incumbent: Ian Austin (Independent, elected Labour) Majority: 22 One of the most marginal seats in the country, Labour has been clinging on to this Black Country town for years. Once the heart of the Midlands metal industry, Dudley has long been seen a centre of ‘old-right’ Labour voters – pro- trade union but also pro-business and culturally opposed to the more leftist politics of Jeremy Corbyn. It is also a strong Leave-voting area. Its MP until earlier this year was former Gordon Brown advisor Ian Austin, who quit the party over Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of anti-Semitism and his views on international affairs and national security. He has since stood down, saying Labour voters should back the Conservatives. What was already a super- marginal seat now looks almost certain to turn blue. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME Incumbent: Paul Farrelly (Labour) Majority: 30 Famous as part of the UK’s ceramics industry, Newcastle-under-Lyme has been a Labour seat for 100 years – indeed, its first Labour MP Josiah Wedgwood was from the renowned porcelain family. However, unlike other industrial heartlands that Labour has held for decades, this has been a marginal seat for a long time, with majorities fluctuating between 1,000 and 12,000 in the 60s alone. The seat is made even more interesting by the Keele University campus; Labour votes from which are increasingly off-setting Conservative support emerging in the town of Newcastle-under-Lyme. However, this seat has a 61% Leave vote and looks almost certain to flip. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

STOKE-ON-TRENT SOUTH Incumbent: Jack Brereton (Conservative) Majority: 663 This was a rare Conservative gain from Labour in 2017, finally capitalising on a decade-long trend towards them. Stoke-on-Trent South would ordinarily be a top Labour target in an election. However, a further abandonment of their former working class base caused by Brexit (the constituency voted 71% Leave) and a dislike of Corbyn means Labour’s chances of winning this seat are further away now than they were in 2017. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 2 TELFORD Incumbent: Lucy Allan (Conservative) Majority: 730 This Shropshire constituency has been a bellwether seat since the Second World War with governments by and large needing the town to win a majority. Therefore, unlike many seats in this election, national polling will be a good indicator to what is likely to happen. A popular Conservative Party nationally, along with an MP who is pro-Brexit and has performed well locally around a case of child grooming, means the Conservatives are likely to keep hold of this seat. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Incumbent: Matt Western (Labour) Majority: 1,206 Warwick & Leamington was a safe Conservative seat until 1997, having held the constituency for over a decade. However, two key factors have been at play since then. First, the seat has become more liberal-leaning with young families and professionals moving in – exemplified by being a heavily Remain-voting seat in a sea of Leave votes. It has also had a significant increase in the number of students who, as a demographic, have become more left-wing. These two shifts have continued since Labour regained the seat in 2017 and this will likely have a big impact on the vote. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

EAST OF ENGLAND The forgotten region, this largely rural part of England has traditionally been a blue fortress with pockets of red around the big towns. This time round it will be those pockets that the Conservatives will be targeting, but they will be on the defensive in the London commuter towns of St Albans and Watford to try and stave off a sustained Liberal Democrat assault.

IPSWICH Incumbent: Sandy Martin (Labour) Majority: 836 A surprise win for Labour in 2017, Ipswich was considered a seat outside Labour’s scope. This constituency lacks many of the key factors common among Labour seats – no significant BAME vote, no large university and no majority for Remain. A well-run campaign with a recognised candidate who had been active locally for years meant Labour was able to perform significantly better than expected. However, Labour also hugely benefited from the collapse in the UKIP vote switching in big numbers to them. With a resurgent Brexit Party, this may be one of the rarities – a Labour seat where the Conservatives benefit from Brexit splitting the Labour vote. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 3 PETERBOROUGH Incumbent: Lisa Forbes (Labour) Majority: 683 Home to one of the most high-profile by-elections in recent times, Peterborough will again be the destination of a big election struggle. The by-election, fought when Theresa May was still Prime Minister following the conviction of the then Labour MP for perverting the course of justice, turned this once two-way marginal into a three-way fight between Labour, the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Labour retaining the seat came as a shock to many and was attributed to May losing votes to the Brexit Party. The Conservatives will be hoping that their renewed pro-Brexit stance will help them win over Brexit Party supporters and get them over the line. On the other side, Labour will be hoping that the alliance of Remain voters they managed to command in 2017 will stave off the Conservative challenge. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

CAMBRIDGE Incumbent: Daniel Zeichner (Labour) Majority: 12,661 With a majority of more than 12,000, this seat does not look on paper as if it should be considered marginal. However, the constituency, which unsurprisingly has a huge number of students and liberal professionals, voted overwhelmingly to Remain and has a history of big swings between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The resurgent Liberal Democrats will be hoping that Corbyn’s declining popularity and their strident position on Brexit will be enough to reverse this huge majority. However, the incumbent Labour MP Daniel Zeichner has been outspoken in his opposition to Brexit, and any overturn would require a huge swing. Labour will be in a real fight here but are likely to just about hang on. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

WATFORD Incumbent: Richard Harrington (Conservative) Majority: 2,092 Watford has been a three-way marginal since 2005. During that time, the Liberal Democrats have built a strong and loyal support base, winning the ‘Mayor of Watford’ election every year since 2002. The incumbent Conservative MP Richard Harrington is due to stand down and the Green Party has announced they won’t stand. This makes this Remain- supporting commuter town an interesting contest, with a sign of potentially huge change for the Conservative base. Headland prediction: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 4 ST ALBANS Incumbent: Anne Main (Conservative) Majority: 6,109 Much has been spoken about a shift in electoral battlegrounds in the North and Midlands – with Labour seats moving towards the Conservatives. However, St Albans will signal whether the South is moving away from the Conservatives. This affluent, leafy market-turned-commuter town is a classic Conservative seat. However, the people of St Albans voting to remain in the EU (62% vs. 37%) coupled with a Brexiteer incumbent MP is going to make this a fascinating battle. The Conservatives will be grateful for the Brexit Party not standing here but, with the Liberal Democrats coming second last time, the Conservatives will have a big fight on their hands. Headland prediction: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN

EAST MIDLANDS Home to some of Labour’s most famous faces and safe seats in both urban areas like Leicester (home to Keith Vaz) and former mining towns like Bolsover (the seat of Labour stalwart Dennis Skinner), the Conservatives need to make real inroads in the East Midlands to get their majority. Some of the most interesting and newsworthy battles will take place here, perhaps making it the most important region in the country.

LEICESTER EAST Incumbent: Keith Vaz (Labour) Majority: 22,248 This election brings the end of an era in Leicester East as Britain’s longest- serving Asian MP Keith Vaz stands down. The constituency has changed significantly since Keith was first elected in 1987, with a huge increase in British Indian voters. It should be a rock-solid safe Labour seat. However, the loyal British Indian community in Leicester East are disillusioned with how Keith has been treated by the Labour Party following his suspension as an MP (they believe he was forced out). Another significant factor is that his replacement is a black woman from London, despite several prominent British Indians applying. While the level of discord amongst the community should not be underestimated, Labour will be hoping that the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and an independent British Indian candidate will split that vote and allow Labour to retain the seat. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

BOLSOVER Incumbent: Dennis Skinner (Labour) Majority: 5,288 The home of Labour big beast Dennis Skinner, this former mining seat is archetypal Labour heartland. If re-elected Skinner will become Father of the House, having been first elected in 1979. However, the seat has seen a significant change in both its economy and demographic in recent years, as exemplified by 70% of the constituency voting to leave the EU. Bolsover would be a huge scalp for the Conservatives and would signal a sea change in electoral geography. However, despite the Leave vote, Skinner’s personal vote is likely to just about keep Bolsover Labour. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 5 ASHFIELD Incumbent: Gloria De Piero (Labour) Majority: 441 A former coal fields seat and birthplace of D H Lawrence, Ashfield is currently represented by former GMTV presenter Gloria De Piero. With Gloria standing down and the dramatic shift away from Labour accelerated by the Brexit referendum, the seat is prime for the Conservatives looking to capitalise on their pro-Brexit credentials. Labour won just two seats in this year’s council elections which suggests that Ashfield could already be a lost cause for the party who have held the seat for nearly 70 years. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

BROXTOWE Incumbent: Anna Soubry (Independent Group for Change, elected Conservative) Majority: 863 The Nottinghamshire suburban constituency of Broxtowe is split in two. In the south around the town of Beeston, the population is predominantly young professional families, many employed at the university and hospital. To the north, in former coal and textiles towns like Eastwood and Kimberley, the population tends to be less affluent and less diverse. This divide is increasing as the southern suburb grows and younger people continue to move out of the northern part of the constituency. Currently held by pro-EU former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, Broxtowe is a classic Labour/Conservative marginal. With Soubry and the Brexit Party both standing here, this is likely to benefit the Labour Party in a seat with a very small majority. Headland prediction: LABOUR GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – the midlands & EAST OF ENGLAND | 6